 Hello everyone December 13th Wednesday FOMC day Welcome to today's FOMC live stream. Yeah, I know I've been I said this last time I was gonna I need a FOMC intro I just uh, you know, I I don't have one Maybe I can do some freestyling for you Ken It's FOMC day options in play what's Uncle Jay Powell gonna say Brades higher lower staying the same trade hackers don't care. It's a probability game When the data comes out the ball will crush sell premium if you can handle the rush So I got Jay Powell on the street. Can you handle the heat wild market swings are sure to come time to buy premium and have some fun All right, that's all I got. All right, let's get into it so I Saw it some of some of you all still like to sell some premium in the AM. I set up a Proleta I set up a theoretical position near the open $4 credits on each side and Got a credit of 735. I didn't actually take this trade But as you can see it is sitting right there, which is why I do not sell premium Free FOMC. It's just not worth it You're taking the risk for no reward If you look at I mean if you look at the trade logs, you look at the back test It looks fine, right? But you got to dig into the trade logs and understand that the profit targets never get hit until after the data is released No need to do it because you can get in right now for the same thing $4 credits would be the 70 on the call side and the 20 20 or 25s Hmm. You must be looking at different back test moral very few hit in the one I've I Mean, I haven't looked at it for months because I just I've tried to trade it in The past I've back tested it and I did certainly did not see half the profit targets hitting and I Don't know what profit target you'd be using Yeah, maybe 10 or 20 percent profit target Couple minutes here until I will enter So if you are newer haven't traded FOMC with us, you can check the trade plan I've got on my sheet the two trades that I'll be doing The first one is selling an iron condor prior to the data release What typically happens is we get a little bit of a volatility contraction after the data is released but price doesn't move too much and Then just before the press conference starts I'll close it out for whatever it is could be a loss profit whatever it is. I'll close it out prior to the press conference and Then about five minutes after the press conference starts We get another little volatility contraction, but once Jerome starts speaking throughout and after the after the presser a lot of times we see the movement so I'm buying a I'm buying a strangle at that point. So 10 minutes till the data. I'm gonna go ahead and enter So I'm looking at the 70s and the 20s 70s and 20s is what I'm going in at Trying to get 715 about 710 filled at 710 on the 70 20s Trading make it for it's just so infrequent. I just set up a order template It's pretty easy just to set up the order with an OCO So I just set up an OCO. So I've already got the profit targets and stops in there as well and then So if I hit 30% before I exit I'll take half off or if we're getting close to 225 Eastern, I'll just I'll start scaling out. Yeah, Mar. I'm hoping we get a little more contraction out of that gold Today as well get a little tiny push higher and SPX tiny of all contraction Trading naked for me. I always set my bots to start trying to enter 30 seconds before That way because sometimes if price is moving The bot's gonna have to cancel replace a few times and so I want to make sure it gets filled by that By that time. So that's what I do. So yeah, I haven't I haven't done anything this morning Didn't do any futures trading Soon things would be pretty Minimal from a movement perspective. So I have done nothing We've got the S&Ps currently up three NASDAQ up 22 Russell down 11 Russell has been a little weak Gold slightly green silver slightly red notes and bonds up a little bit 10 year yield down over 1% Oil up 1% Natty gas up one and a half Soybeans down one and a half wheat down three and a half weeks moving corn down 1% Euro flat pound down a little bit Bitcoin up two and a half percent Vicks up two and a half percent staying above 12 currently at 12.36. Yeah, hopefully we get a little benefit on our TGA F Book some nice profits on the calendars this morning on the one two one three six seven Five minutes till the data comes out. Yeah, B&B's tend to do good That's how I went with a little bit bigger size did one two and a one three They tend to do good day before FOMC or the one that you take off on FOMC day I actually was gonna go bigger and then I Reduced my number of contracts at the last minute decided to go a little bit a little bit less But still good size Sometimes you see a pretty quick ball crush after the data is released Most of the time it's just kind of a little bit more gradual It depends on market movement too, of course S&P is grinding higher pushing higher you get more Pushing lower volatility stays a little more bid Looking at the trade log and this is 15 different trades going back to the beginning of 2022 It's like one two three four five one two three It's like six out of the 15 hit that 30% profit target before exit doesn't happen lately one two three four five the last five FOMC meetings One got stopped out and the others we closed at at the specified time Yeah, I need to go in and I've got them updated on my FOMC tests I need to just go in and copy of those and update the other ones One could only wish Andrew K one could only wish I would sacrifice this iron condor for a rate hike Actually, I need to adjust my Should be 1110 Should be my stop One minute ladies and gentlemen Yeah, Jerome does not like to surprise. That's for sure Cosmo no, I will not be so I will I won't be doing one two and I won't be doing my Wednesday to five today either All right, SPX pushing up Volatility coming down a little bit so you can kind of you can see that volatility contraction on our trade already already up Or five six hundred bucks. Look at the VIX just dropped like a rock Down back below 12 SPX pushing up to 46 58 Had an expected move of 26 to start the day Which would be a high of about 72 and a low of about 46 20 heading towards the upper So my 30% profit target would be five bucks SPX running making a run Spreads currently trading over 10 my stops at 1110 VIX hovering around above 12 Dip below Spreads hovering just under 10 my stops at 1110 still pushing My spreads up over 10 I get stopped out unless we pull back Can't have too much more of an up move Spreads still hovering around 10 10.75 getting close to stopping and I'm gonna be stopped should be getting stopped Why am I not getting stopped? Rises beyond my stop spreads trading at 14 my stop was at 1110. That's a little concerning my bids is zero There I got stopped out stopped out at 1460 Nasty slippage and my puts didn't have a bid. You're right. All right, so that wasn't good It's not what I was looking for Was not considering my puts going worthless that quickly I think I bought the 10 centers. They were 10 cents All right, well stopped out of that one Rice pushed right up to the expected move areas starting to retrace now I'm gonna take a little short futures position right at this expected move line with a with a Pretty tight stop if it pushes again All right, so I'm short some ES Sector ETFs metals up regional banks up Only thing kind of flat or down is Biotech and It's XL Y consumer discretionary Everything else in the green on the sectors Pfizer down 8% biggest mover to the downside several stocks up 5% crypto stocks up Russell, which was down a half percent now up a percent big bounce in Russell So my next FOMC trade is the long strangle which I'll put in At 235 Eastern 135 Central Just after the press conference SPX right at that expected move area. Let's see if it's gonna blow through or give us a little two-sided action here SPX taking a little pause S&P up 29 NASDAQ up 99 Russell up 19 Dow up to 19 They're gonna look at my Time flies the DS 29 Still read a little bit. It's named with the DS 22 Gold getting a bounce It's helping our short strangling gold Maddy gas getting a little bit of decay on our strength strangle that much EGIF not much yet as PX popping back up So a little over 15 minutes until the press conference. It's about 20 minutes till I enter my long strangle I had yeah, my stop was on the entire iron condor Vegas Michelle and I then there was no bid on my puts I just I was not even thinking that my Longs would go bid less that quickly Should have been thinking that but I wasn't No, the bot would have taken care of that the bot will sell the longs if there's a bid if not, it'll Just close out the legs that have a bid SPX still a highs of day Vicks still slightly above 12 bounce back up slightly above 12 I've got my so yes is trading at 47 28. I've got my stop at 47 32 and a half I've got another five points is all really just using that upside expected move It's kind of my line in the sand there giving it a little little room above it. I'm trading. Yes, Krush Yeah, it just depends Bianca I would say more often than not you get a little bit more two-sided action than this, but that's just from Just from memory NASDAQ getting giving a little bit more two-sided action up here Ever so slightly Russell new highs on the day SPX as well No red bars and SPX so far SPX 46 74 all-time highs 48 18 Little surprise Vicks didn't Stay under 12 with this move up. I'm gonna be just waiting for Jerome. It's yeah, I'm still pushing Getting close to getting stopped out of my futures S&P up 34 Stopped on my futures SPX that point six eight percent from the open Quite a climb my friends quite a climb So at the beginning of the year I marked the expected move and we are hitting it Or we're we're a few points away. It's just above 4680 That's just based on the option chain the expected move on January 1 from January 1 till but from what it had as the expected move for One year and we are about to hit it by the way if you go back and listen to my Year-end update My crystal ball protection my crystal ball prediction was we were going to hit the Expected move on the downside So there's how there's how my predictions work. This thing is moving boy Russell up 1.32% All right about six minutes till the presser see if we can get some back with the Maybe the Vicks starting to climb and we can get some back with the the long strangle and a big move and Not a lot of volatility contraction Tag that 4080 coming down a little bit. I enter five minutes after the press conference starts Yep, 35 after yeah 30 delta tomorrow. So it'd be 4690 on the calls 60s or 65s on the puts as of right now Yep, good to go MRP. It's basically deflation Everything you buy is basically getting cheaper Haven't you noticed All right four minutes till entry Here comes Jerome Looking at the 4690 4660. I'll give it another minute. Good another few minutes. I don't use a stop on the Long strangle the Allison Two more minutes SPX still hovering a few points off of its highs of day Vicks 12.22 All right looking at the 4690s 90s I'm gonna go 4695 and the 4670s Build at 880 on the 4695s and 4670s Some build at 880 some at 885 So my price target would be at 1195 SPX racing higher Market likes Jerome today. It's PX up to 4686 up 43 on the day Closing in on 1% higher Nasdaq up 1% Russell up 1.7 Vic still chopping around 1220 ish Notes and bonds are higher 10 year yield down over three and a half percent 10 year yield back down to 4.054 Lowest we've seen since First of September So I will SPX started at 4646 when FOMC started now at 4685 You know quick move up to 4700 or down to 4665 Preferably down I get the option still pushing new highs 4688 Vicks definitely not coming off even with this up move question time 4691 almost 4692 of a high What a move This is very one directional. That's for sure No dancing just straight moving up Russell up 2.21 Look at that Russell Start off at 1890. Now it's at 1947 Strangles trading at 990 profit target 1195 4695 It's another quick five points to do it. Yeah, it wants 4700. Let's go Vicks pushing now. It's up 2.2 percent Vicks now above where it's right at where it started When it when the FOMC data released a little dip pop back up You know that 10 year yield drop like a rock almost down to 4 Euro in the pound up US dollar week Bitcoin at 4% Back above 43,000 UPS T at 13% Netflix up almost 4% Bank of America up three and a half percent coin base up four and a half We 696 on SPX I go quicker UPS T calls will go nice How far out in duration? I'll make a push above 4700 now. I'll be back in two minutes guys 98 but I'll tell the contracting a little bit now Didn't happen quick enough That didn't trade anything but FOMC trades today, Meach. I got filled in my long strangle at 880 It's currently trading at 930 and we are up to almost 4700 above 4701 4702 did not quite get there did not quite get there Down moves gonna kill this trade now. We don't get a quick pop. They'll push in new highs Getting close one more little push My spread got up above 11 like Profitar gets at 1195 1130 come on little buddy a little more Just a little more Nice and Neil five point pullback. No bueno. She passed still taking questions back up to 11 one more little push 1140 Vixx is falling So close so close SPX high of 4702.73 Just didn't quite happen fast enough yet And then I'm gonna spread back up to 11 again new highs of day. It's trying 1130 I'm gonna get out of 11 of my 12 and leave a runner, but I'm gonna Put my other one up there as well just to get out Do one more little push up to 1170 Just can't quite Fight the theta off enough to get there fighting that theta fight it off 1160 This is ridiculous now we got Vixx is trying to climb back up a little bit Maybe that'll help There we go 1195 it hit Yeah, we made it boys and girls we made it That helped SPX up above 4705 Up 62 and a half points on the day Russell up over 3% look at that thing 60 point move in the Russell's a monster. All right now we can crash Decay see any reason to short yet. I Haven't seen anything any fib levels any tick action. What's going on? Still looking Yeah, I mean we did have one little red five-minute bar at 125 central Is that what they call two-sided action? 4709 guess we should have held V slap is nowhere to nowhere to be found V pop Should have been looking at V pop Vixx is holding above 12 for some reason even the Vixx is like seriously you're still going up Seriously SPX you're still going up Will over a hundred hundred points away from all-time highs my friends We just crushed through the expected move for the year by 30 points No, no runner. I went ahead and put in my last one just to Get done All right, my friends. I'm gonna jump off here one loser one winner My loser was bigger than my winner though so Net read on the day for this FOMC no power hour for me Go take care of some other positions Some other stuff done, but everyone have a good rest of your day As far as tomorrow live streams go Tomorrow's the 14th so Chad will be streaming in the morning and then we'll be back on for power hour tomorrow All right, I'll take care. Have a good night