 Welcome. Peter Bergen, the Director of the International Security Program. That's me. We're at the New America Foundation. That's where you are. We have a superb panel to discuss the Afghan election, which as you know will be held on Saturday. Faisal Ali Khan to my immediate left is a Carnegie fellow at New America. He just recently arrived for a six-week fellowship here. Faisal has also just spent about a month traveling around Afghanistan, meeting with candidates. And so he's going to have a sort of report from the field based on his recent reporting trip. Faisal is actually a Pakistani citizen from Dara Ismail Khan, which is on the border of South Buzzeristan. And what used to be called the Northwest Frontier Province now Kaiba-Puk-Tunwa. He runs the Foundation for Integrated Development Action, which does work in the federally-ministered tribal areas to get youth to kind of take another option other than joining the Taliban. He's also an entrepreneur who runs businesses between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Very happy to have you here, Faisal. Next is Claire Lockhart, who is the CEO of the Institute of State Effectivists. And as you know, has played an instrumental role in many of the working in Afghanistan, helping the government think through how to become more effective, worked with one of the leading candidates in the election, Ashra Afghani, as an advisor for many years. And to her left is Ambassador Omar Samad, who's had a distinguished career in the Afghan government. He's a fellow here at the New America Foundation. He was Ambassador to France for Afghanistan. He was also Ambassador to Canada, played a very critical role there. Canada's biggest, I think, overseas deployment since the Korean War was in Afghanistan. And he was also spokesman for the Foreign Ministry before that. And welcome to you all, and we'll start with Faisal. Bismillah al-Rahman al-Raheem. As-salamu alaikum. Thank you, Peter Bergen, for having me here at the New America Foundation. I'm just going to start with a short video clip to set the mood for the election of some of the things that I saw during this trip. So that was just something that a few local journalists helped me put together and edit some of the bits from what I'd seen and the very active involvement of the media as you saw. Before I start, I'd just like to say that if there's anything that's been left out from this presentation, it's because in the interest of time it's not because it's not relevant or as important, because it's such a vast and complex subject, it's very difficult to put it all and capture everything in there. So I apologize if anything's missed out. Going to some of the candidates, we'll talk about the three main front-runners at the moment right now. But it was interesting to me to have people like Daoud Sultanzai and people who aren't coming from your traditional political or class or people who have been power players in different provinces and districts. I found that in Afghanistan there's so much of regional expertise. It's very difficult having a national sort of frame of what's going on. Things are constantly changing and evolving. And it's a lot easier being able to see, you know, focus in on a particular area as opposed to the country as a whole. Although Ustad Sayaf is not a front-runner, the reason I put him here is I was very struck by what you just saw in the video there at the first event at the Lower Jirgatent. The same place where, you know, during the Civil War his troops had come and killed thousands of people is where he chose to have an inaugural event. There were about two, three hundred armed people in Kabul from his militia all over the place around there. And as you saw in that video, you know, and I looked around at the crowd and you see all these people, former Mujahideen, you know, big guys with long hair, beards, sort of what one has an image of, you know, the militants. And he walks up on the stage as you saw and everybody sort of puts their hand like this and he goes and stands there. And he's the most vocal person who's speaking against the Taliban. He says, you know, I'm going to go to every province and I'm going to stamp this out and those traitors who work on behalf of the neighboring countries, I will do this and I will do that. And when I look around and I see the people and I was talking to people at the non-shop where they have stickers of him, they were all saying that, you know, this guy, at least we know what things would be like under his time. It might be very difficult, it might be very strange, but it's a known entity. And he's someone who looks like he has the authority and power to be able to do something about something. Although, as you see, he's not really a major player, but I just found that was an interesting thing that I'd come across, you know, in someone like him. Zal Mir Rasool, I think, going forward in this, at this venture where we are now, if we go into the politics of it, I think a lot of people feel that there probably will be a second round after the 5th of April. I was speaking to some people this morning as well and it seems that everyone is geared up for Saturday for the election to take place. If there is a second round, I think then somebody like Zal Mir Rasool would probably be potentially someone who could work with either of the other two. That is, you know, Dr. Ashraf Ghani or Abdullah Abdullah. And I see him as somebody that represents the interests of the current administration, not only in the president but also some of the people around him in order for them to at least remain somewhat relevant or be able to protect interests that have been created over this last decade or so. Ashraf Ghani was a very interesting sort of campaign. I mean, this is something that came off to a bit of a slow start in the public eye, although I think he'd been at it after his last presidential bid. He was part of the Kabul process where he was going out and having engagement all across the country, meeting with various communities and people and keeping up that momentum. So he's someone who's seen to be following through a certain process all the way till now where he's been able to communicate his message nationally and something that people have been able to gravitate towards and it's taken on a bit of a life of its own. A lot of people felt that having a combination of Dr. Ghani with General Dostam over there would be, you know, a short, short loss and he's not going to go anywhere with this, but it's something that's gained a lot of momentum and he's seen, you know, as someone who won't bow down to regional interests, meaning he's not associated with any particular neighbor, who will have a strong position with the West, who has a plan who's not sort of seen as corrupt and doesn't have a co-tree around him. He's not someone who comes with a large extended group of people around him that would be potential beneficiaries of his administration. So I think those are all things I think which in reaction at this time after having administration for 10 years is something which, you know, gives him a lot of appeal across a lot of people. Dostam, I think my view of this when you're looking at it from the political side is more being an asset to him than being a liability and the reason I say this is people used to... I heard people saying that, you know, having someone like General Dostam will mean that the South is gone. He's not going to get anything in the South because of the atrocities created. My take is that all politics is local at the end of the day. In any country, it's all about local issues and local things. When you have a president from the South, like we've had, somebody who's had a stake in tribal connections, etc., I mean, the small example I'll give you is of Zabul. Back in, you know, the 94th time of the Taliban, etc., there was a gentleman by the name of Hamid al-Atoqi, who was an ex-his commander of the Hikmatiyar group, very close to the president, etc. This was a man who had been humiliated by the Taliban, paraded on the streets because of corruption, looting, etc., and people were very happy when the Taliban took over. When President Karzai took over, this man, Hamid al-Atoqi, was the first governor of Zabul. He was over there, you know, the same person who'd done this thing. A lot of the people who are, you know, the Talibs in that area, people like Amir Khan Haqani, Mullah Nazir, Maulvi Abdul Qayyum, people who've been close to the Quetta Shura, etc., who at the time, President Karzai had announced an amnesty for Taliban to put on their arms. They were willing to sort of step aside. But then when you have someone like this put in, who you paraded across the streets, obviously that changes the entire dynamic. Similarly, what I'm trying to say is that when you have someone from the south who's in power sometimes, when you get into the power place of the tribal politics, it means that there's always going to be someone who's benefiting in a particular district or not, who's going to be the police chief, who's the NDS person, you know, things like that. I think someone like Ghani Dostum Combination is viewed as if there's going to be an influence by General Dostum. It's going to be in the north. It's going to be something that will affect people like Atta Mamad Noor and others. It's not going to affect me over here in the south. And Dr. Ghani is not a man who has that kind of micro-linkages and relationships where he will be able to put this al-Uqzai person here or this bar-Uqzai versus this ish-Uqzai or things in this nature. I'm just talking in terms of perception of something that I came across and saw as something interesting. Abdullah Abdullah, I mean, because of the death of Marshal Fahim, there's been a bit of a break in his public movements, et cetera. But he's been on the campaign since the last election. I mean, he's been going strong since that time. He clearly has a huge popular base and support all across the country. It's a fallacy that people say that people in the south don't support him. Mullah Naqib's son, Kalimullah, many other people who are strong people in the south of the country also have been supporters of Abdullah Abdullah. The fact that one section of Hizbe Islam is also, you know, supporting him in this election. I mean, all of these things are going to contribute. And I mean, he is someone who is, you know, a much larger-than-life sort of player. I think he also knows that all politics in this particular election again comes back to local, which is why one of the things he's been going and saying everywhere is that we're going to have direct election of governors and, you know, things of that nature. The role of the media and the youth. I mean, this is something that I found really quite incredible. You have this sort of nationalistic, you know, very sort of driven, motivated youth that make up a lot of what the media is, that make up a lot of sort of civil society, people around, you know, sort of everywhere, really having a huge impact on what's happening and, you know, framing the sort of debates as well as some of the things over here. In Herat, I saw there's a huge, massive, you know, journalism school, you know, thanks to USAID's assistance. A lot of people who have been motivated and wanting to become journalists and go into this, being able to highlight issues which are off the screen. This young boy here, he was a poor fellow, a gang rape victim whose mother had taken him to the police station and no one was registering any cases against him and they brought him to the media and, you know, because the media highlighted the issue, it suddenly, you know, allowed him to sort of get some sort of resolve. Here we have, you know, youth conferences going on, trying to address the brain drain, groups like Afghan 1400 where they're trying to take the mandate of the young people to a candidate and have a consolidated sort of view of, you know, these are the things that we want. So I really see that as something very positive. These recent attacks, I think, have contributed to building that sort of unity amongst people, a stronger resolve to push back and for people to come out in the election and to cast their vote and demonstrate their intent. So all of these things are things which I think are very positive. A point here that, before I forget something I came across recently, there's this, some articles that have come out about these 21 million vote cards instead of 10 million or 12 million and, you know, what does this mean in terms of corruption? I mean, a lot of people, there's a huge movement over here of peoples. People who voted in a provincial election in Mazar today might be sitting in Kabul. So, you know, there's a lot of things where just because of movements of people and local conditions, there might be, you know, things like that that have happened, they don't necessarily mean that this is because, you know, there's something more sinister to it. Sometimes it's just something that's more just administrative. On the positive side, I mean, I went to see the Kapasar Governor, you know, here you have two particular districts which are under control of, you know, anti-state actors. Yet, they're sitting over there, they were doing a plan for what happens, you know, next. I saw in the Ministry of Education this political culture that's developed. I saw local people going with MPs holding their hands and going here and there to get a teacher transferred or somebody appointed. I saw people in Ministry is going to get taxi permits with their MP. I mean to say that now there's some access to the center. If you're someone sitting in a far-flung district, you can catch your MP and go to the center and try and get some resolution of what you want to do. And these MPs are going to play a role in this election. MPs are supporting various candidates. So, different candidates who are there, I mean, they have this sort of machine behind them also. When it comes down to the election, there'll be people who know how to do the mechanics of the election. What happens with transport? What happens with denying transport? What happens with who you get to which polling station? You know, there's a mechanics aspect to the election which is something that's an imperative thing that makes, you know, one win versus another. On that point again, when you talk about the extent of the state machinery and you see what sort of influence would that have on an election like this. My opinion is, when you've had someone who's been there for ten years, he's not going to be there going forward. That's going to have an impact on an NDS chief, someone sitting in Balkhaw, you know, sitting in the south of the country. I think they will probably look at what's going to happen next, who's going to be the next people coming in and where do I create my alliance or who are the power brokers in the local area. So, I think it's something that will possibly get dissipated that if there is any sort of involvement or any sort of, you know, reach of the state which I don't really think is something that will happen in this election because of the kind of feeling there is and I mean, there are 10,000 monitors now. People are very enthusiastic, you know, there's this whole sort of move. But if there is something like that, I think the person who's sitting in Balkhaw in terms of a government official, his decisions of what he does are not going to be governed by Kabul. Similarly, someone sitting in Harmand or in Zabul or, you know, in Farah. So, that's something that I think is also, you know, I wanted to bring to your attention. In Herat, I saw that the governor who'd been in Qunar previously was bringing in accountability amongst the police. If we're talking about bribes and things like that, he'd imprison people from the police in prison. I mean, it's showing that in local areas, local governments, there is a way to sort of fight back and send a message of, you know, there being relative sort of stability or, you know, having ways that one can, you know, do something about. This young man here, Abu Muslim, he's 24 years old. He's one of the main anchor persons in Afghanistan with Tolo, one of the largest channels. And I was surprised when I see him talking to governors, talking to people like Ustad Shiaf and all these people, and the questions he's asking and the things he's saying, I told him, I said, are you crazy that you're asking these kind of questions? I mean, tomorrow you'll be hung up somewhere. And he said, no, you know, things have started to change now. There's more of a capacity for this. And I think these things have also impacted the way that these people are looking at youth. A lot of these young people, I see a lot of the same old faces. What's changed? Yes, you see the same faces. But they're going out to the public now. They're having a different interaction with the public. They're talking about women. They're talking with these young people. A young person is getting up and saying something which he'd never, ever say in his life before. And now today you're seeing something like that. So I think all of these things are changed. This young man up here in the tent is a young MP who came from Kabul. And he, you know, was staging a sit-in outside the parliament because he was demanding that the president recognize all the fallen troops from the Afghan National Army, from the police who've died as victims of terrorism, et cetera, that their families are met. All the presidential candidates were going to see him. You know, it created a big stir. He's a young guy not coming from any wealth or anything like that. He actually used to work at Tolu. And I think people like that coming up, raising these kind of questions, you know, having those kind of messages is something that really demonstrates all the positive changes that are taking place. The NSP is something I've followed very closely, the National Solidarity Program. I think it's one of the few things that has been able to penetrate the provable sort of mud curtain of Afghanistan where the Ashura's initially were things which were an alternative to the power structures. But now you've seen so many ministers, MPs, local structures getting integrated with NSP and having an ability to do something about things for themselves with the grants they get, et cetera. So it's something that anybody I met, everywhere I went, everyone had good things to say about. In Kapisa, I was surprised to see I myself am fond of hunting and I was surprised to see these duck decoys, mallards, scoots, anything you can imagine. And, you know, fishing gear and everything else that shows like in some degree there's some normalcy where people have the time to go fishing and to go for a duck shoot or something, you know, in the time with everything that's been happening. So that was something that was, you know, quite a surprise to me. Here I'd like to just go into the challenge of the frame. One of the things that really impacted me on this visit is I realized that you can't look at this election from 2001 to now. I was not able to understand when I was looking at this frame. When I spoke to people particularly in far-flung rural areas where there's limited access to media, et cetera, that man is taking his frame from the traditional way, what he's heard, what he's seen, you know, the old views. And then you get this sort of panoramic vision of what's happening. They start seeing that from the tying of King Abdul Rahman, what was the vision and what was the thinking, where he wanted no railroad to be made because he said if I create some economic interest in this country, then people are going to come and, you know, other foreign powers are going to come and try and interfere in this place. You see that in 1919 people like King Amanullah, when he tried to do all this reform of take off the veil, everyone wear western clothes and Kabul, like do some of the things that we now relate to some of the progress or changes that we see from a western prison. This is all done at that time. It was all fragmented. You had a person, this Basha Asako, who comes to power for nine months with a group of illiterate ministers, you know, in reaction to all these reforms. You have then transition with Nadir Shah. You have a time where you have the British supporting one person. You have, you know, Amanullah King Amanullah trying to be supported by the Russians. What I mean is I'm talking of multiple transitions with foreign intervention sort of powers also that have been taking place historically within this frame of this last hundred years. The thing which I find interesting is from 1931 when they started the parliamentary elections and Nadir Shah's time and then with King Zahisha, from 49 to 52 you had the 7th National Assembly where out of the 120 legislators, you had about 40 people who were from liberal backgrounds who were trying to address corruption with ministers who were trying to bring some sort of reform and these people in the 52 election, there were three newspapers that were banned. They started questioning the Muslim religion. They started questioning the monarchy. I mean it was going, there was land reform that was going totally ridiculous and that's when in 1953 you had Daoud come back and for 10 years you had a rule. So what I'm saying is when we're looking at the development in terms of democratically, democracy, even compared to Pakistan, I mean we weren't even developed to this certain level. You know in Afghanistan in terms of parliamentary elections culture, etc. I relate this period of 53 and 63 to what we're seeing now. You had a rule for 10 years like we've had now of one particular group. In that 10 years there was a lot of economic growth, etc. There were a lot of young people that were trained. They wanted decision making in the countries affairs. This one man rule was becoming something that was inefficient and unproductive and unpopular after so long. There was nepotism, etc. So that's why when King Zahisha asked someone like Sir Daoud to step down, even though he had the support of the USSR and the support of the army, he stepped down because he also saw the writing on the wall that there's a fatigue after a 10 year period and in this election I see the same thing. There's a fatigue. It doesn't matter who's come on what they've done. It's a long time. People want to see what happens next and that's why I feel that across the country there is this feeling for change and wanting to look at you know what happens next. I think we can't sort of address this also without looking at what I call the tribal prison. When you're looking at it from the point of view of the kabil, in the tribal mind there's a different way that people are looking and viewing things that are happening or the situation. I wrote something. I'm going to give you a little story of Helmand also but I wrote a little something just to help put this sort of mindset. It's on a this kind of paper towel type of parchment at night one day I was sitting and going over this strip and it came in my mind so this is just to give you any of you who have experienced people in these areas and who go in the mindset of how people in the kabil are looking at things I think you'd appreciate and in the language forgive the language because it's the way that people communicate but what I'm saying here is with my tribal prism I must widen the lens to see a hundred years back and twenty years ahead. I recognize my position as a pawn destined to a life between great powers colliding from my vantage point perch on the mountain you know in this large surroundings far from this suffocating cage gilded cage of my tribal life which is a restrictive thing where no decision belongs to anyone but mother compromise where the stifling of individual thought forces my assertion of authority on my women children beasts of burden allowing me to remain anchored and survive the constantly shifting ground beneath me the Taliban and occupation forces attempt to cloak my vision and force themselves upon me in me violating everything I hold here attempting to break the bond with my ancestors collective wisdom that we've lived by contributed to and have been custodians for our children can you imagine living in a time like this constantly shifting realities the helplessness and inability to affect any change around you the pain of watching everything you hold dear being ripped from your arms you ask me to be rational and adhere to alien arbitrary laws that have never been able to take root in the land that I live in you ask me to think of a future when I'm barely able to live today Afghanistan is a great country in a testament of our times that the indomitable spirit of man cannot be stamped out by the greatest of empires these are the kind of rhetoric and talks and things you hear in the hujras these are the kind of things you are here when you go and you sit in the evening and people are having the cups of tea this is the kind of thing that you hear in some of these places the glorification the views the old you know something of the way that they see themselves and where they're going in Helmand you know it's an area where there's been such a large insurgency one of the propagandas that you know you hear from people is saying that the British are avenging their forefathers in the battle of Mewan what happened then that's happening now there's all this talk about the insurgency etc I put it all down to one thing in tribal area you have like what we call you know there's Zar Zameen and then like the there's either the land or the gold or the women over here it's a matter of land it's a matter of opium it's a matter of water when you come to a place like this this is the bread basket of the country this is a place where you have most of the agricultural base this is a place that in 1946 when the Afghan had a surplus of foreign exchange from war-inflated prices to allied forces they actually commissioned a company from Boise, Idaho to come and do the Helmand Valley project $17 million contract it was it's another thing that it went into cost over runs to 50 million and the Americans didn't go for 30 years but the thing is that they brought about a lot of prosperity the Durrani Empire had all these Pashtuns that had been settled there you had the Khan and the Khawanin you had people who are sitting as patrons of the state proxies to the center, arbitrating etc suddenly you have all these people coming from all over to benefit from the agriculture etc you upset the local balance you have people like these Akhund Zadas who start coming up and benefiting from this you have in the 80s poppy cultivation happening why? let me just a short thing here is important to understand people with large land holdings who appoint tenant farmers tenant farmer has a small land holding if you ask him to make a water pump and to try and take the goods to market and seed etc he can't afford to do such a thing like this so the poppy and things like that is just a matter of income which is being denied to him so here I think in a place like this it's really about land I think in a place like this it's people who were supported by this administration people like the Akhund Zadas you had in NDS I mean many of the people who came in the helm of affairs were people where the main tribe that make up the Taliban were left out of power in Pakistani politics and tribal thing when you're trying to break somebody you put his own cousins in all in power and you try and cut them here the whole tribe was kept out so here you have you know Barakzai's are there you have different people who've come and you're playing tribal politics and I think those are things which impact heavily conflicts impact the national conflict they blow things up and which is why I see that going forward it makes it very difficult for an occupation force or a foreign interventionist to change some of these things or to bring some peace to some of these kind of you know elements the withdrawal what does the withdrawal mean sorry I'm making a bit of a mess with all these papers I think with people that I've spoken with a smaller footprint will be beneficial I think they're established in intelligence channels there's a competent local force in terms of army, police, etc I think that it can't be Afghan led unless they're taking decisions and dealing with consequences you often say Afghan led but you're taking decisions yourself about things on the ground then I think this will force a real economy to develop not a war economy it will face it will make people want to do things around in the area I think it will be a major blow to the insurgency as occupation forces are a major motivational tool to people and after 10 years with such a large footprint what real benefit is there really of continuing to have troops in some of these areas are they just fueling this insurgency and what would the impact be of them not being there and if you put the Afghan people in front without the back of the international forces without trying to bring some resolve in their local areas will it impact their decisions so I think these are all things which are important for us to consider and look at the Taliban I think this is a group that has gone through a lot of evolution on a very wide scale I would say whoever the next president is he should hold direct talks with the Taliban no need for some Doha, some Qatar, some Norwegian German, this thing, that thing it's Afghan, you call the people you sit and you have direct discussion with with the people my own feeling is that people like Mullah Umar and the old guard are really the last hope to bring about some peace because I really don't think that they have the same level of control that people think they have or that they try and project this new younger lot that you have you have commanders who are 25 years old commanding a group of 20, 30 soldiers all across the place communication is limited, they have financial independence when your own child gains financial independence you know there's a change in the way that they look at you and the attitude and everything else so here it's a different kind of dynamic these are not people who have been fighting shoulder to shoulder with these Taliban and the glory days this is a young 20 year old, 25 year old his vision and what he sees these bunch of old guys who want to do this and want to do that, who are they? what's their relevance to me? what have they done? they're sitting somewhere enjoying life and I'm the guy who is suffering on the ground so I think you know this aspect is something that is something that one should be very wary of that who exactly are we talking to and it will expose some of the beneficiaries who are prolonging the conflict when you look at Taliban also I would say this last 10 years just like we look at Karzai in terms of fatigue of government in some areas you'll see a fatigue from Taliban the places where they're taking the taxes where they're taking the chandanamaks they've been present, they've been in governance in some sort of way so when people have a choice there might be a rejection of both in some of these places if the option is strong enough so I think those are also things which you know are there to consider things like you know on a local level when there's a well-known commander and he's killed the next guy takes on his same name these are all signs that show that they're holding on to something very dearly I mean why do you take on the name of the same commander and try and keep that image going and all that kind of thing you know in terms of the shadow administration it's something that we've seen that say there's very strong intelligence they take big advantage of the tribal disenfranchisement you know this underval thing where belonging whichever tribe you are you're able to mobilize other people with you the financial independence gaining from local corruption of you know Afghan police forces and things of that nature so these are all things I think which have fueled it till this stage but I really wouldn't say that they're a popular option or a unified sort of group in the country the role of Pakistan you know I mean this is very important especially coming after this last slide I think that there's now an existential sorry if I say that wrong threat to the country in Pakistan I relate this to in 1931 and Nadir Shah came to power in Afghanistan this is a time when for 15 years there was an insurgency going on in central Asian countries where Afghanistan had given you know to the Khan of Heva and Amir of Bukhara over here in this Batkashi movement was going on Nadir Shah came he had so many domestic issues he said you know they held with all this in one year this 15 year movement was gone finished we couldn't stamp it out in 15 years and one year it was gone here we have a problem where you have groups questioning our existence our constitution killing our troops, killing our children killing everybody that you can think of whether it's media, whether it's you know police, whether it's civilian, whether it's politician so I think in the country there's a lot of sort of resolve to try and address this issue because now it's affecting the very existence of who we stand for I think we almost had to run into a army chief who came to power who wasn't someone coming from a background with intelligence etc who would think what will they say, what will so and so say somebody did this and you do this they blocked off all the areas there was assassination of key commanders and it demonstrated that there was going to be some change but then the politicians stepped in the politicians stepped in because there's politics at play the PMLN wanted to make PTI and Imran Khan look bad and say you want to have talks here you have the talks when you're having talks in context of tribal or in conflict there has to be some integrity in the process who are the people that you're appointing to have these talks on your behalf, you're an established government, you can't have a couple of yahoo's who are there to represent you going up to the mountain I mean it's totally ridiculous I think it's just a delay before the inevitable that will happen I think for Pakistan a strong Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship is important to counter Iran and what I'm going to bring in here a little bit later and some of the other challenges in the region I think that with the U.S. role you made it very clear who you support in Pakistan from 1954 before we were even 10 years old you gave 21 million dollars to the Pakistan Army in military assistance that was a time when in Kabul they were paving the streets the Russians and making cement plants and everything else right during the Zenil Ziaz time you say I always come across people say you did this about the Mujahideen my most populous leader is when he came to power in 78 you took him, hung him you bring a dictator who's lashing women creating this cohesive sort of feeling and in those 10 years you're doing this operation with the Pakistani civilians mouth shut during this whole time you didn't ask us so whatever it is the Pakistan Army today is the custodian of the the Pakistani politician Afghanistan is not relevant to him because you've never allowed it to be from the very beginning he doesn't have those links he doesn't have those relationships and things anymore I'm not looking at provincial things like A&P but generally speaking there isn't that sort of connectivity these are all things we need to change these are all things we have to do something about and we have to recognize that without Pakistan in this particular scenario and changing the frame it's very important to come to some sort of peace in this region and having this been and I'm telling you that it's really in the interest now of our own issue of our own national interest the vacuum what happens next for me it's very hard to fathom that you know from the time when Habibullah's murder has been linked with Soviets from 1920 when they started giving aid to Afghanistan from 100 million dollar grants to all the things that have happened alternative gas pipelines every time there's been some close relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 1950 borders were closed some issue an incident was created and eventually the Soviets were there always to bail out Afghanistan when someone has had such a long history in a country when from 1950 to 59 the dependence of Afghanistan and USSR on arms went from 0 to 100 percent from petroleum products from 10 to 90 percent total fallen trade from 17 to 50 percent from throughout the 60s to 70s you've had PDPA the this Khalik Parcham all these movements when all of these things have been happening when bridges have been built with the load limits of Soviet tanks in mind in Afghanistan how can you suddenly just turn a blind eye and say you know okay now with all these changes we're just going to sit here and see what's going to happen next I think that there's definitely a role to play in this region they're not going anywhere they were against Pakistan because we were in Allah of China because we were someone that was close with Americans they've always been fearful of this pan Islamic expansion in Central Asia well radicalism has never been stronger in Pakistan or Afghanistan they've never had this aspiration of IMU's and all these different groups who want to go north they want to push everything in the south well now it's possible that it might come up north we've never been closer to China we've never had a closer relationship with the US in this region also so all of these factors I think I mean for the last 94 years you've been investing in something how are you going to let this all go at a time like this when the threat has never been greater from what you were worried about back then so I really feel that that's something that's going to be a factor here before ending I just want to end on one last little point I think it's just to give you the mindset of how Afghanistan is really a country of 25,000 village states which are semi-autonomous or a tribal confederacy instead of a central country when Douth came back after we talked about that time 53 to 63 he was removed when he came back in the 70s one of the things he was doing was purging the organizations of this hulk and this pachemi movement in the Ministry of Interior he moved the minister to become minister of education and he took a hundred and sixty of the most sort of you know Marxist-Leninist sort of thinkers in the ministry brought them together and he said you know what in order to spread this view and you know this right thinking etc. you can't do it sitting in Kabul you need to go out to the districts and that's where it's all going to happen etc and he sends these hundred and sixty people out he knew that they'd be out of communication with Kabul he knew they'd be out of communication with themselves and eventually the whole thing died down because he knew the mindset of the mud curtain when you go out into the villages even this Ayan Amir like King Abdul Rahman never made examples of villagers or very restrictively he did something in a particular village to humiliate someone because he recognized that the balance is very very you know you have to be very careful with so I think these are all factors that one must consider when we're looking at something like this Afghan election today I mean what are we looking at really I mean how fragmented is it what is the frame of some of the people who are looking at this are they just looking at elections from 2001 or do they know that parliamentary elections from 1931 to now have been going on all these transitions have been going on from King Abdul Rahman's time the British were giving a stipend to Afghanistan then the Russians were then the Americans were for 100 years money's been coming from outside so when we say where's the money going to come what's going to happen for the last 100 years it's been coming I mean if you look in the history also so I think these are all factors to consider the region is something to consider the span Islamic expansion something to consider and I'll just end with a little quote actually something that I wrote the other day they never have been any true winners in Afghanistan they never will be only compromises and relentless maneuvering by her leaders, tribes and neighbors thank you thank you Faisal for that very rich presentation she covered a lot of ground there's a good way of setting up a discussion starting with Claire and I'm glad that Faisal mentioned the National Solidarity Program which as you know provides grants to 23,000 villages in Afghanistan by any standard it's one of the most successful things that the international community with our Afghan partners instituted and Claire was one of the people who made it happen so Claire has played an instrumental role in effective governance in Afghanistan has done a lot of thinking about it and over to you thank you I'll start by thanking Peter and the New America Foundation for holding this event at such a momentous time in Afghanistan's history I'll reflect first specifically on the elections and then more broadly on the transition process and where Afghanistan might be heading to start with the elections I think this is a real tribute to the Afghan people that the country is a few days away from its third presidential election much has been said about the different transitions the security, the economic, the political but many have argued I think rightly that the political transition is the most important of these the Hadley Podesta Task Force Peter in his own writing and a number of others and I think the fact that it's happening on time and with such public involvement is something that perhaps a year ago people really would not have expected now I'm assured by the technical experts I'm not an election specialist but I'm assured by those who are that the mechanics of the process are in place and that in itself is a tribute and this election compared to previous ones represents making the sort of mechanics domestically led but I think much more remarkable than the technical aspects of the political aspect and as Faisal has documented this real sense of public involvement participation and discussion across the country the sense that politics is being discussed in every household not just in the urban areas, in the rural areas now of course media is playing an immense role in this the reach of radio and TV there's enormous permeation across the countryside the number of public debates that have been going on where I think all candidates have been participating and not just that the rallies that have been taking place where people in person of course given that political parties have something of a problematic history in Afghanistan political parties are not the vehicle for policy formation this is really done within the campaigns themselves but the campaigns have been focusing as much on the rural areas and across the countryside there's no longer a sense that politics is confined to Kabul now there are some risks we've read and seen very sadly there's been violence, there's been intimidation and there's still a risk of fraud although I'm sure that the controls are in place and I think that even with the tragic departure of international monitors monitoring wasn't dependent on international monitors there are many layers of monitoring and most of these that the bulk of the 300,000 expected monitors are the candidate agents themselves and monitors that are run by Afghan organizations moving forward and where some of the risks actually come from the fact that Afghanistan still operates a cardboard registration system Dr. Ghani and I devoted I think several pages in our book Fixing Fail States to the need to move to a bi... modern technology and registration and that was back in 2004 when we argued that at the time we were told by the UN that you couldn't switch to that because the cardboard had already been procured from a Canadian firm and it would be... it was too late and it would be a waste of several million dollars spent on the cardboard if you switched at that point but they assured us that at the next election they'd be able to move to the system we're now practically a decade further forward and we're still reliant on the system I think lessons learned for looking ahead to a biometric system is an opportunity it's been done in India, it's being done in Yemen there's no reason why it shouldn't be so I think still there are some improvements that can be made but in general it seems that the process now is quite robust but most of all I mean if we compare the three the presidential elections 0409 and 14 the real marker certainly from where I sit and watching the country seems to be this level of public participation and enthusiasm instrument of monitoring and accountability is going to be from the public themselves and what they're willing to tolerate now what does this mean for the future direction of the country and what we see after the event on this coming Saturday the 5th of April what will happen next I mean I think what we look to first is how do the leaders themselves the institutions the public get from how the votes are cast to a result, there may be a second round there may be some questions of addressing fraud there may not but looking beyond that a question of whoever wins how will that leader deal with the other groups and camps and form a team of people and I think we've heard all of the candidates commit to forming a national team and all of them seems and they recognize this again to need each other to govern so how they put that team together is going to be critical and then more broadly how do the key leaders and groups in society work together there's been a paper that a number of leaders including Dr. Ghani but others have been discussing over the last few months and the national dialogue paper as many Afghans said look we don't need a national dialogue it's what we're having every day but there was a process to begin to discuss these issues and they identified that really the key political question for the country is how different groups in society across the country work together and what's been really heartening about this process is that all of the tickets are none of them reliant on a single group they're all cross-ethnic they've all committed to a national agenda so looking beyond the elections as events and as many Afghans will tell me it's the same in any country democracy isn't just about an event democracy is about the 364 days in between and what's the type of governance and what type of institutions will be in place and I think what this election represents is actually a real opportunity to move away from or move beyond what has been I think all too sadly a technocratic approach to state building or nation building to one that now really rests on public participation and where the politics of the country is what sets the direction of the country and what are the foundations for this we've seen as many have commented on the statistics like many countries in the world something like 70% of the country under 25 so a new generation of coming of age and the kind of politics that they will shape is going to be really determinative this media and the reach of the media and the vitality of the media another factor that will shape it and I think this public involvement that we're seeing isn't just a sudden occurrence it's been building up over the last decade not only with the presidential elections but the parliamentary elections the provincial councils and as both Faisal and Peter have mentioned the National Solidarity Program where tens of thousands I think it was 23,000 I think it's now increased to 31,000 villages have had village elections and so this means that I think 100,000 women have served as leaders in these village councils and many of the provincial leaders and parliamentary leaders once served as leaders on the village council so they're bringing a politics that's rooted in the politics of the locality so I think what we're seeing is an evolution from this if we look at a scorecard of where the country's been over the last decade what's rated quite highly in any kind of poll if you look at the Asia Foundation polls there's a lot of trust in the community development councils and very high public trust in the Afghan National Army in the education system, in the health system so the work of this technocratic agenda has had its dividends it is playing a crown to the leaders the Afghan government has been able to build institutions that work and are trusted by the people there are many problems as well much lower trust in the police in the agriculture system has taken much, much longer to evolve but it seems that the sort of low the problems in institution building have actually been in this area of accountability to the people and the public participation so this is what might be set to change now the transition that's been underway the last few years has been about shifting the burden of managing from international forces and quite frankly the international aid system to the domestic institutions so the question as we look forward to post these elections is how will the task of governing the country for stability be rooted in the politics that will emerge and I'll just end with some of the sort of critical factors that I think are going to be worth looking out for the first is this question which I've alluded to is how will the leaders and groups and society agree to a new pact amongst themselves a pact to govern what are the rules of the game what's the direction of the country that they agree to move forward on this was actually the critical question that was discussed during the bond agreement how are the groups and factions within the country going to agree on how the country's governed but that discussion took place in a room with just 40 people now it's taking place with millions it's playing out in the homes of millions of people and some of the key questions which are central to all the campaigns not just any one campaign how are they going to secure their own country all of the key candidates have promised to sign the BSA so I don't think that's in doubt but how are they going to continue to build it in the Afghan National Army and the security forces a second measure that isn't discussed as often as this is how are they going to pay for the country one of the key measures of sovereignty and it's very much this election represents the restoration of sovereignty but one of the key measures of sovereignty is how a country pays for itself and Afghanistan is a fair way of being revenue self sufficient but this does mean the agenda of providing jobs across the country something that citizens across the country are putting at the top of their agenda but also raising the revenues how the minerals, the oil and the gas discoveries are handled and how Afghanistan moves as quickly as possible to pay for itself so that it's not reliant on the largesse of other taxpayers and then another critical question how does this new government establish its own foreign policy its relations with its neighbors and the relation with the US and then so finally what does this mean for the type of support that this new government might be asking I think it's a question of waiting and seeing and perhaps waiting a little bit longer than aid agencies and countries in the West like to wait and I think it would be really important to whoever wins to wait for a new government to form its set of priorities its way of governing and then configure a partnership learning some of the hard lessons from the last decade Thank you Dr. Ambassador Samad Thank you Peter Thank you for your invitation I want to take too much time so we can have some time for an interaction Thank you for your presentations I'm still a bit dizzy from Faisal's presentation I'm trying to figure out exactly how to approach that but we can have that discussion some other time I'm going to focus on the elections because we are five six days away from a monumental transition in Afghanistan What to expect what are the barriers and what are the obstacles then obviously what happens after post election day post E day as I called it one of my articles we I think that it's the post election period now that is going to be absolutely essential and critical to all the efforts that have been put into this major project and hopefully legitimizing it so let me start by saying that first of all Afghanistan is a very changed country it is not the Afghanistan of 2001 it is definitely not the Afghanistan of 1930s or other periods that you covered and it's not as tribal as some people really think even tribalism in Afghanistan has taken on a new form it is no longer the 19th century British definition or British perception of tribalism you can see this today in action during rallies that are taking place with tens of thousands of so-called tribals in the east and the west and the north and the center part of Afghanistan have less tribes as you know it's mostly the Pashtun areas the Pashtun Belt of Afghanistan that is tribal so with the growth of the youth population with empowerment of women you see definitely barriers shifting you see change occurring on a daily basis and I think that the result of this election are some misconceptions there will be definitely a shift in generational attitudes I think that you will see as well some ethnic barriers being crossed by some of the more astute politicians and candidates and their teams I think that you will see as I said more youth and women engaged in change and this is all good as a result of having gone through three decades of all types of turmoil having learned a few lessons having been the recipient of an amazing contribution made by the international community over the last 13 years not all spent well not all managed well but overall life changing so in my opinion the picture overall is one of is more positive than negative and obviously as a critic of the afghan government and someone who spent 10 years working for that government I cannot say that all the blame rests with one person or one institution or one country even we all have a lot of responsibility for what has happened good and bad over the last 13 years having said this we have reached now the point where the era of the born era per se that brought up Karzai is ending and playing his role in his game at this at this stage of history because he is very much concerned about his place in history he is very much concerned about the legacy that he leaves behind and he does not want to be remembered as someone that came with the international community's blessing in some afghan assistance but also was instrumental in continuing an international presence in afghanistan so this is why he is not signing the BSA but I am of the view that the BSA eventually will be signed once we have a new government in place so the state of elections I mean the elections has gone now for the past year and a half or so afghans have been increasingly embroiled and engaged in politics I think that at this stage a lot of people must be very tired of politics in afghanistan but afghans have the ability to take a lot of politics and play a lot of politics so that may continue but what we do see is an amazing sense of enthusiasm that exists within the population given the amount of the level of threats that we have seen over the last few weeks we see amazing lines of people from all walks of life to this day wanting to get a voters' card we don't know if this is the second or third voter card but still we do see that that they are lining up knowing that there are attacks taking place if you follow afghan media doing an amazing job of covering an amazing job of presenting promoting democracy at the grassroots level engaging in bringing the candidates into people's living rooms you realize that we've never had this before in afghanistan I come from a family that was very much involved in the 1960s politics in bringing democracy in the new constitution and I remember those days when people did some things that were being cobbled for a position in parliament under the king but it's nowhere near what is happening today obviously it's nowhere near that so this is all a very much appreciated change that is taking place what you also see is what claire mentioned is that these tickets these tickets have been formed whether we like them or not but they represent sort of a national they have a national flair to them and they bring a national flavor to them they are multi-ethnic in essence some have problems with their composition but overall there is this realization that we have to work together that whether you're a Pashtun or a Tajik or a Hazara the destiny of this country cannot be in the hands of just one group of ethnicities we all have to play our part and so this is again something that is or whether you were a former mojahed or a former communist or a former royalist or a democrat whoever you may be you are now part of a larger constituency living under a new tent and the only people left out of this tent are the guys who are trying to send people and so on and so forth but the rest of the Afghan family if you can call it that has come under this tent we have our disagreements we have our likes and dislikes we have different agendas and mentalities but that's how it is isn't it that's how it should be so we are moving towards this and the challenge will be to continue and sustain this movement and the challenge will be to make sure that we don't regret to make sure that we can do everything possible to give the next generation the tools and the means and the resources to continue and so in this next generation already has been acclimatized this next generation already has been globalized something that was not the case in 2001 or prior to that these millions of new of young Afghans most of whom are going to over the age of 18 are going to vote for the first time and who probably do not remember much of what was happening in the 1990s or 80s or even during Taliban time they are the ones who are going to be the agents of change so this is all very good the other thing that is very important today is the sense of defiance there is very strong civic resistance to the imposition by force and by through violence of wanting to derail this process and I think that the Afghans are not picking up arms to do this the Afghans are doing it by speaking out by rallying, by demonstrating by coming I mean it's amazing to see these people come on and say to hell with you Taliban or Mullah Omar or whoever you are and you are not going to stop me I am going to go and vote this is the message that is resonating over the past couple of weeks across the country especially of course in the major cities let me talk a little bit about the polling because I think this is an issue that has attracted a lot of attention there have been five polls if I am not mistaken that have been taken over the last couple of three months trying to evaluate public opinion in Afghanistan about elections and about the candidates and the tickets the latest one came out two days ago by ATR based out of Dubai which seems to be the most controversial so far and there has raised a lot of questions in some quarters some people have liked it and some people have not obviously that is the case with polls usually but it does to some extent show a certain trend but with one caveat polling in Afghanistan is not a scientific matter it is very difficult to have a very accurate or even a somewhat accurate reading of public opinion in Afghanistan regardless of who is ahead and who is not I think what we are going to see on election day if these elections are managed and administered somewhat properly somewhat according to rules and there is no major meddling in tampering with elections I think that what you are going to see a lot of surprise for people I think that a person who may today be in a certain position will end up somewhere else high up may turn out to be somewhere else I think that we are informed for a lot of surprises if elections are managed according to the rules if results are tabulated according to rules so the polls and I don't want to go into the technicalities but the polls have one benefit the benefit is that it does demonstrate a certain trend but one should not be holding to the polls into numbers until elections take place themselves because there are definitely some problems with coming up with a sample making sure that that sample is representative making sure that there are a lot of issues that are associated with polling and with the methodology itself let me say a couple of words about security as I said there is an attempt to derail elections the Afghan government of course points the finger at certain elements in Pakistan it is pretty clear that these elements are coming from Pakistan but we also know that the safe havens are in Pakistan we also know that the training of suicide bombing takes place in Pakistan but who is involved in Pakistan with all of this is another question we can talk about this at length but we may not reach any conclusions but there is again there is a history and a trend going back to certain state elements in Pakistan who have since the 1990s who have supported and have promoted this radical thinking and have been supportive of groups such as the Taliban and others but as was mentioned earlier today Pakistan itself is facing a potentialist threat at the hands of the same people because as far as Afghans are concerned there are no good or bad Taliban they all come from the same kindergarten whatever you want to call it preschool or school but the Madrasa system that has been in place since the 1980s is the production line for this type of schooling and mental and mindset the threat whether to Pakistan or to Afghanistan is the same the rhetoric is somewhat different the politics behind it may be different but the strategies may end up being the same a little bit about fraud there is an expectation that they will be fraud no one should be disillusioned by the fact that the Afghan election process is going to be all clean and fair but it's just as I mentioned earlier it's the question of the level of fraud is this going to be industrial scale fraud or is this going to be home level fraud is this going to be local and small scale fraud because if it is going to be widespread industrial scale fraud I think that this is going to jeopardize the whole process it's going to threaten even political stability to some extent and it will make it much harder for what Claire was referring to earlier in terms of coming up with a national team and it's going to become much more problematic but what is very important is that at least the first round of elections do take place there will be no host trading or compromise before this coming Saturday and if there are it shouldn't determine the outcome of elections the Afghan people are owed this in terms of their rights to be able to go and cast their votes and for their votes to make a difference and then I think after the first round depending on who the top two contenders will emerge and who they will be then I think there is an opening there is a window of opportunity for I hope statesmen to see how they could maybe work together and if they can come up with a formula that works and that's acceptable I think that you will see Mr. Karzai also be more comfortable with it you will see also the contenders the main players and their constituencies also agree to it so the hope is that after elections there will be a rethink on how to safeguard the games of the last 13 years how to come up with a stronger governance team and a more effective leadership in the country more forward thinking and hopefully also a leadership that can eventually at some point be in a position to deal with the Taliban and those who support them may I stop here thank you very much I've just had some quick questions myself so we have limited time but I wanted to get some clarifications one you mentioned the five polls that have happened they consistently show that Dr. Rabdollar and Dr. Garnier are sort of the front runners is ATR the polling company that has done all five of those polls okay so I mean the burden of the polls suggest even if there has been perfect methodology and getting the right sample there's a problem that they are the front runners yes but one has to take into account what has happened over the last two weeks since Kayum Karzai left the race and joined Zama Rasool and since the campaign has picked up quite tremendously the last poll goes to March 25th or 6th I think which is last week but still covers a period where there is uncertainty there's no clarity on some results and then the methodology I think is also very important it's supposed to be the Karzai proverb candidate in the most recent poll got 8% is that correct? 7.5% he's not doing that well according to this poll by the way there's been polling in Afghanistan since 2005 by all sorts of people and one of the most consistent findings is that there is never a more than a 10% favourable view of the Taliban do you accept that? I tend to accept because it's a very common view that polling in Afghanistan I don't understand for instance why polling in Pakistan is perfectly predictive which has many of the same problems that Afghanistan has and why in Afghanistan it's not predictive I understand it may not be exactly as it is in the states but it's a very common view that polling in Afghanistan doesn't work I don't buy that because I think that we and you used the word trend election of the Taliban a very high favourable view of the army which Claire mentioned a very disfavorable view of the police all of this kind of a cause with what we know anecdotally so I think these polls are going to turn out to be closer to the truth than we may think but one of the big surprises here and maybe Claire or Omar you can answer this is Dr. Ghani's previous election campaign was sort of like the I mean he was such an outlier he got what 2% why is he doing so well this time is it about Dostrom, is it about first I'm back with this to you I'll recuse myself I mean I think that first of all Dr. Ghani has spent the last five years exposing himself to the public and interacting very closely at the grassroots level he realized that he needed to appeal to the population across the board and he took on a national sort of a pro-project to work on secondly I think that he obviously is a part of his support is coming from General Dostrom so that is a voter bank that he can rely on very strongly and I think that he his rhetoric is different his political narrative is different then it's much more encompassing and national in scope so those may be some of the reasons but again we will know when what do you think turn out will be I mean I've seen numbers of 60 to 70% is that plausible if security situation on April 5th is not out of control then I think that the 60 to 70% is plausible by the way just a small note the last time there was a 70% turn out in a presidential election in this country was in 1900 just for a sort of useful way of comparison do you think Karzai has actually done everybody a favor by not signing the PSA because after all the man who will sign this PSA and will be a man obviously will be somebody who's not the America's candidate somebody who is one of the electoral process who hasn't you know it's a completely new person because in this town there's a lot of discussion about it's terrible that Karzai isn't signing I actually think it's a good thing that he hasn't signed it any thoughts I think instinctively I'm with you on that one it seems from a logical perspective that given that this will be a key part of the next president's foreign policy committing the next president allowing the next president to have that as part of his foreign policy and hold him accountable to that what makes enormous sense by the way can you explain something that's always puzzled me which is there is a huge disconnect between what I would call the Afghan expert community people on this stage and many of the people in this room and how they see Afghanistan and the prospects for both kind of not having a massive civil war in 2015 and a relatively successful election and the disconnect between that and why relatively well educated Americans who aren't necessarily expert think that Afghanistan is going to hell in a handbasket there may be some imagery from Iraq to some extent I think that there's also there hasn't been enough reporting on the positive in Afghanistan the focus has been a lot over the last two three years on Karzai and what he said and what he hasn't said and what he's done and not done and not enough on what is happening with people's daily lives. Yeah, so what's going to happen is going to be people to the extent that they're paying attention about Afghanistan on Monday when they start reading the papers about turnout the lack of violence a relatively small amount of fraud are going to be pleasantly surprised perhaps we agree okay questions anybody has a question raise your arm and identify yourself this gentleman here wait for the microphone, thanks my name is Mohsin Kamal and I'm a lawyer working in international law firm here in the Washington DC office my question is from the panel particularly Fassal and Mr. Ambassador Yu you told us about like there are many autonomous factors like there's a young youth of Taliban 25 years old guys those who are pretty much controlling the ground there and then they have the square Tashura Omer and the old Hanjman and then we have like a complete Pakistan factor to the equations and then there's a election do you think this election will generate that much of political capital for the winner and that much of a political will within the Agwan people leaving Taliban not the tribal areas to pull them or course them into some kind of a submission toward the Agwan Constitution is there any historical precedent I mean you have a good eye on the Agwan history has it ever happened before what happened before in the Agwan history and what do you see from the ground perspective now thank you whether the Taliban will recognize the current this bond agreement constitution or what may be can the Taliban accept the demand the constitutional demand or the new government after the election this really depends on the like I mentioned earlier the integrity of the process of what it will be and how this dialogue will take place I don't see that there's any civil war doomsday I'm very positive on the future both in Afghanistan as well as in the border areas going forward in terms of what you said about historically has there been any example just something that comes to mind quickly there's nothing that comes to my mind but maybe ambassadors something to add to that let me I think that I also believe that there's not going to be a civil war and that depending on how what kind of mandate the new government is going to have is it going to be a strong government a unified government a very strongly representative government or is it going to be a weak government the stronger the government the better the chances over a long period of time to deal with the Taliban the weaker the government as has been the case over the last few years actually the harder for us to be able to come to some type of settlement with the Taliban the impact of elections on the Taliban is very difficult to discern but I think that we already see that there are elements within the Taliban who have either been eliminated ousted or sidelined who have second thoughts so that that is now clear there are Taliban with second thoughts and to what extent but they are not in charge they are not operational so this is why there's no momentum on the peace front whether it's within the Taliban that's one question and to what direction more radicalization more jihadi thinking or more moderation that's one question the other question is what role will Pakistan play in those within Pakistan who have supported one trend with the other and so once you have an answer for those two questions I think that the role of the new people here depending on their strength just an observation here I think the United States we thought the reconciliation process was with the Taliban the real reconciliation process is a successful election which includes everybody and we put so much of our mental effort into something that was always a fool's errand and here we have an election that's going to proceed and that will be the national reconciliation process in which the Taliban have basically won the elections by the way speaking of the Taliban Faisal do you think and if somebody who's almost a native of Waziristan but not quite just across the border do you think the Pakistani military is going to do this operation in north Waziristan which is the toughest not militarily yes and the two three indicators why I say yes is because traditionally whenever there's been a military intervention in the area there have always been certain passes where the Taliban manned where people have traditionally moved forward into our exile in other places this last time all the places were blocked the second thing is that low level ground commanders like Asmuthullah Shaheen and others who previously are not on the national screen or anything else but key in terms of military operation of anti state actors they were assassinated in north Waziristan and surrounding to try and also indicate that we can also do this over here right now if you want to if you want people to see that there was actually some impetus in the in the operation and there is seems to be support amongst the people also great Haroon Ula here from the State Department this gentleman over here Haroon thank you here in Washington DC a good question is the election in Afghanistan all inclusive or is it just the first time to have an election that's pronounced so well is all inclusive within the minorities of Afghanistan or is it just an election that so far it's a U.S. signature of Afghanistan which one would you think it is meaning that there will be universal participation by all ethnic groups is that the question? yeah all indications point to a very strong groundswell an inclusivity participation by all social, political, ethnic religious groups I haven't come across any one again with exception of those who say we are Taliban we are against the process there may be some pro-Taliban who will vote on election day there will be some pro-Taliban who will try to disrupt it but I haven't come across anyone other than these spoilers who have been left out or who feel that they are not part of the process question for your Ambassador Samar whether it's a Ghani government or an Abdullah government or whatever it is at the end of the year what do you think their attitude will be to participation of Taliban in the political process i.e. would they be amenable to Taliban district governorships or provincial districts of a role for the Taliban I can't speak for these candidates but from what we have heard them say over the past during the campaign at least this issue has come up quite a bit is that they will rethink the process first they are not going to continue with this current process that I started so there is going to be some review first of all approaching peace and reconciliation and they want to shore it up and they want to strengthen the process and I think that that makes a lot of sense it has a lot of flaws would one fix and we all agree the Afghan constitution has done it a hurry and wasn't really thought through would one very big fix and to what extent have candidates talked about this be direct elections for governorships so if Abdullah's plan is implemented that means that people in localities will have a chance to vote their local government now that local government could end up being a Taliban but if the central government is going to make appointments as has been the case thus far so obviously national politics will come into play and it's going to be a different bulging Abdullah is one of his, he's campaigning on this issue yes yes well others have indicated like Dr. Ghani and please correct me if I'm wrong Dr. Ghani has indicated that he's going to review everything and he's going to see what works best and he's going to give time for reform to take place even this whole question of a parliamentary system and moving towards a parliamentary system I think Dr. Ghani was the one who said well in year 304 I'm going to call Eloy Jerga and I'm going to put this to them as a constitution and create the position of a prime minister in the country so they all have a certain plan for devolution if you want to call that let's collect some questions here the lady and then the gentleman in front of them yes I'm with Deb Rieckman with Associated Press just generally what do you think the US policy should be going forward post-election and secondly more specifically do you think that the US should play role in any kind of reconciliation work that's going to continue anyone in particular let me just say as an Afghan let me just say that the US has over the last few weeks had a very hands-off attitude low key position on elections which is good and neutral which is what it should be at the same time post-elections I think that the US and the international community while election results are being tabulated have to remind everyone including people in Afghanistan that there are rules to abide by and that they have this whole process has to end up with a somewhat relatively legitimate, credible, acceptable outcome. Number one. Number two the US should definitely make a case for continued support to Afghanistan standing by its commitments that have been made in Tokyo in Chicago and Bonn over the last two or three years and even the possibility of President Obama coming up finally and giving a troop number a number for residual troops to be considered and I've honoured on once BSA is signed. The gentleman here who is in front. Thank you voice of America, Afghanistan my question is from Ambassador Samad what is your take on Mr. Ali Khan's assessment of situation in Afghanistan especially his last conclusion that he said there never have been nor will be a true winner in Afghanistan. Thank you Well, I'm still dizzy but no offense because it was very rich I think that Afghanistan does not have a Western style Western concept of winning and losing I think that in Afghan society you do have winners and losers and we're moving more and more towards more legitimate winners and losers and so the whole issue is where are you on this trajectory of change and development in progress and we are still at the beginnings of it so I believe that Afghanistan is on the right track it has just experienced some bad moments due to a lot of different causes but we are going to have legitimacy determine winners and losers and that is the most important thing I just had to clarify what I meant with what I said about that is that it's always compromises that come up in the end so whenever there's an end result it's more of a compromised result as opposed to any one particular It's like in Washington Thank you My question is each of the candidates seems to have their own individual strengths and weaknesses and even the ones who don't end up winning what type of role do you envision for them in the government will they still be involved in some way for example with Sayaf will he still be used to condemn and delegitimize the Taliban's arguments and on that same note what kind of vision do you see for Karzai's role in the future given let's say there's a candidate that's not really amenable to working with him or consultant how will that shape up Two questions I'm not going to talk to those It's very difficult first of all to predict what might happen and how things might shape up and who might take on what role and so with that caveat I think that what you're going to see is an attempt at least I think there will be an attempt by the front runners even those who may be losing in the first round to create what was I think you called as as a national government and so I think that there will be by use of compromise as you mentioned there will be compromise made political compromise to create something more powerful more representative because the tickets that are running right now have their flaws have their pluses and minuses as you mentioned they have their strength and weaknesses and I think that by bringing some of them together you're creating a stronger core and that is what is needed a stronger core and that cannot happen now it has to happen after the first round and I hope that they will do so do it in a somewhat open transparent and hopefully very legitimate manner first of all and secondly I think that in the case of other leaders like Mr. Sayov as you mentioned I think they all have a role to play you know every African has a role to play eventually hopefully for a role that is constructive and positive and in the case of Mr. Karzai I have been on the record saying that he needs to be given his due place I think that he needs to have a be given immunity I think that he needs to be given a title and maybe even helped join a sort of council of elders maybe and work on certain causes that he personally would like to work on so he can continue to play a constructive unifying role and whoever can play a unifying role in Afghanistan in my opinion is going to be highly regarded by people even if they've made mistakes in the past just a couple of additional comments one from earlier on the question of the changes to the constitution and decentralization one of those I think hidden facts when one reads the constitution it actually mandates municipal elections and it's just never been implemented so there's actually a lot more decentralization so on so one of the questions I think for any future leader is the constitution itself going to be implemented even before it's changed in terms of how other candidates might join or not I think that's going to be a question of how the candidates or whoever wins forms the compromises and especially if it goes to a second round or there's a question of what it does I know that the media has reported that Ghani has said that if he should form an administration he would invite all the other candidates to join that administration I don't know if the others have made similar pledges and I think there's a what seems to be from this national dialogue discussion that's been going on one of the central parts of this was a recognition that a key marker of this election is going to be treating the current incumbents with dignity and respect especially given the tragic ends that have befallen past rulers and that is really incumbent on all the candidates to afford him that dignity and a role going forward Quick factual clarification he's building his retirement house on the presidential palace grounds No, no, it's outside it's next door to the presidential palace But close enough Yes, close enough for what? You know, just to drop in Okay, a lot more questions we're already over time but let's bunch some of them up, Tyler will with this lady over here first and then we'll just collect questions after her Thank you, I'm Debra Alexander and I was nine years in Afghanistan and I'm the advisor for USAID in the Department of State Quick questions, too I've been intrigued with watching that several of the slates had have women vice presidential candidates and also that Mrs. Ghani has been fairly active in campaigning How have Afghans responded to this presence of women on the both candidate slates and as as a campaigner if you will And my other question is if any of you are willing to predict if there will be a runoff, thank you I think the answer to that is yes Okay, this gentleman here Bismillah ar-Rahman ar-Rahim My name is Muhammad Hussein Akhlaqi I'm from Afghani Geo and Mining Engineering Services A few days ago I came from Kabul My question is to Ambassador Sahib Right now many businesses in Afghanistan is in hold What do you think that signing the BSA and the election can affect the improvement of the business and private sectors The answer to that is yes as well Okay, this gentleman here Hi Doug Brooks with the Afghan American Chamber of Commerce Again on the BSA question one of the issues that the U.S. military point U.S. and international militaries have made is that the decision needs to be made sooner rather than later if they're to stay in with any sort of presence If the size is to be scaled down I mean how much of a presence do you see would need to remain Anybody else? This gentleman here And then we'll wrap it up My question is about state-local interactions after the election I think in South Asia over the last 150 years we've seen a lot of problems with ethnic categorization through census through ID cards elections etc So what do you think is necessary for a shift in rural areas from prioritizing local conditions to a more national sense of Afghanistan is not just a land for the Pashtuns but for everyone Thank you Let me just take a few of those On the women's issue, yes, three of the tickets still running have female VPs on them including Zami Rasool and this is a step forward for women in Afghanistan and they have been very active in the campaigns they have traveled almost everywhere without any restrictions they have traveled to the south they have traveled to the north everywhere and they speak very openly and as I mentioned earlier women participation is going to grow this time around definitely more than past elections which is all very good runoff my prediction as Peter said is most probably yes business in BSA BSA will solve most many of the business problems that exist today if it's signed it has had a psychological impact and also security has also hurt businesses as of two three days ago all restaurants have been ordered to shut down and cobble until elections take place for example and BSA sooner or later and how many I think that the administration here by now has an idea as to what this timeline looks like and the view is that anywhere between 8 to 10,000 is the minimum required by the US whatever NATO contributes to this pool I'll leave the rest for the others or on the business one I just like to say that the chambers are very active the Afghanistan has a signatory to the TIR which means movement of goods without transit over there they've got a lot of things that are in place I think American businesses really should come in and invest more you used to have that Peter Baldwin who owned Ariana Airways Interpreneur back in the day in Pan Am there's actual American businesses that are coming in and doing that would be very good I saw that came across some JP Morgan people doing some mining with Saeed Mansour Nadri's Sun's group and things like that so that itself is a good indicator smaller businesses one didn't come across much and when you ask people how much is the chicken cost or what is the cost of the milk the open one kilo milk lots of people don't even know like in the bigger people what these things cost or what they are so I didn't see that there was a lot of big checks and be looking at other places to invest because of not having that faith in what's going to happen next but there's a lot of positive things there's construction everywhere in the outlying areas and things which is very positive on the women thing I wanted to also mention that I met some young women MPs and other people who were out campaigning canvassing there were people everywhere and as Ambassador Saab mentioned even in the rural areas I mean it's something that you come across a lot more than you probably did in the past there's also a great time there's free meals, there's activity there's transport, you're going around as a hala gulla you know it makes a it creates a sort of atmosphere also which gets everyone into the mood and all that kind of thing which has happened you know all across the country and I think that as once we were over this there'll probably be people looking towards as there's more of a drawl local business opportunities and things that people can look at on the prediction of a runoff I think if the polls are right it's certainly on the cards but the question is should it go to a second round will that second round be held or will there be the type of compromises that the panel has been talking about on the businesses I think it would seem to be and certainly from talking to business owners from the country it's not so much whether the BSA is resolved but the question of resolving the election and determining what's the shape of the next government and what are their policies going to be and how business friendly are they how are they going to be able to bring the confidence continue the confidence and project that confidence and then on the state local interactions I think it's as in any country it's a balance between having a country wide national agenda and then tailing the responses to the particular areas and it's programs like NSP that I think have managed to do that so everybody has access to NSP but it's a mechanism that allows the policies to address the particular needs but it's a fair formula that everybody can see that nobody's getting more than the others of their share without some criteria of fairness thank you Claire Lockhart, Faisal Ali Khan Ambassador Samad that was a brilliant presentation by all concerned thank you for coming, hopefully it will be a good election thank you