 On March 31st, 2022, the leader of the breakaway region from Georgia and the de facto nation of South Ossetia, Anatoly Bibilov, expressed the desire of the territory to hold a referendum on joining the Russian Federation. Bibilov and Russian state officials have been discussing the absorption of South Ossetia into the Federation in the past few weeks, much to the ire of Georgia, whose sovereign territory is in question. With the Russo-Ukrainian War continuing to Georgia's northwest, the timing of this move by South Ossetia couldn't be more contentious. As a result, the potential for old wounds to once again open presents itself in a region that is becoming increasingly unstable. We will look at why South Ossetia would want to unite with Russia and how this will affect an already tense situation on Russia's borders. It may surprise some to hear that the Ossetians have some of the most deviant histories and origins in respect to their Caucasian neighbors. The closest linguistic and ethnic cousins to the Ossetians are descendants of Scythians and other Eastern-Iranic-speaking peoples located in Afghanistan and Tajikistan, most notably the Pashtuns and Pamirs. The Ossetians specifically are thoughts have descended from the Alans, a later East-Iranian ethnic group that inhabited modern-day southern Russia from the 4th to 12th centuries. They started migrating southward into their current ethnic boundaries after the Mongol invasions and local rivalries with other Caucasian polities. The Ossetians reached these boundaries in full by the 19th century, when the entire region became part of the Russian Empire. After the collapse of the said empire into civil war in late 1917, the Ossetians became split between the Democratic Republic of Georgia in the south and Russian or Bolshevik control in the north, therefore never truly being able to taste independence after the Empire's demise. This lack of autonomy led to uprisings and ethnic tensions within Georgia until Georgia succumbed to Red Army control in 1921. The Ossetians in Georgia were given an autonomous oblast in 1922, two years before their northern counterparts received one in 1924. This new political arrangement gave Ossetians some cultural autonomy, though politically like the rest of the Union, Moscow's rule was firm compared to local authority. Rising nationalism coupled with the collapse of the Soviet Union led to an all-out conflict between Georgians and Ossetians from 1991 to 1992. This conflict led to a peacekeeping force that kept the region tamed until 2004, when tensions began to rise again, with Georgia's new president, Mikhail Sakashvili, promising to restore the complete territorial integrity of Georgia. Sakashvili's claims culminated in the Russo-Georgian War of August 2008, where Russia sent troops to aid South Ossetian separatists. It is important to note also that Russia was helping Abkhazia in this war. I have already made a video explaining the Russo-Georgian War, which you should watch after this one. The war ended with Russian forces occupying the two regions of Georgia, with the self-proclaimed nations receiving recognition from Russia. The status quo has been largely uninterrupted since 2008, and South Ossetia keeps a tradition of friendly relations with its northern neighbor, even sending troops to aid Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. South Ossetia, sitting on the sovereign territory of Georgia, receives minimal recognition from the international community. They receive recognition from their lifeline Russia, but other nations have recognized South Ossetia. Syria, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Nauru have additionally recognized the region's independence. South Ossetia also enjoys recognition from other states with limited recognition, such as Abkhazia, Transnistria, and Nagorno-Karabakh. These regions have created the Community for Democracy and Rights of Nations, or a wannabe nations club. South Ossetia receives no real help or support from any other country besides Russia. Russian troops occupy the territory to prevent a Georgian recapturing, and the region is part of Russia's orbit as a result. The region's small population of 50,000 prevents them from having any serious political autonomy, and Russia essentially controls all political aspects of the country, from its foreign policy to internal affairs. So why doesn't South Ossetia just join Russia then? This question is complex, but it seems more likely that South Ossetians want absorption into the Federation by the day. There are several reasons for this, one of the most prominent being that they would have guaranteed defense from Georgia, as they would officially be part of Russia. South Ossetia would also enjoy greater integration into the Russian economy and political sphere, which could improve their economic prospects. However, how well they can achieve this is questionable due to the geographic separation South Ossetia experiences from the rest of the country. The Caucasus Mountains, at their highest point, delineate Russia's current southern frontier. As a result, the region would suffer from still being geographically separated from the Russian economic heartland and, therefore, would not succeed as much as it would like. The other primary reason for South Ossetia to be absorbed into Russia that comes to mind is their ethnic reunification with North Ossetia. After being separated for over 100 years, this would be a significant boost for the pride of Ossetians in general. There is serious talk about having South Ossetia join Russia as part of the North Ossetia Republic, which would aptly change its name to Just Ossetia, or possibly more likely to Alania. A referendum on the matter could happen within one to two months, should negotiations go as planned. This event would mark another significant political shift in a region that is becoming increasingly unstable, and would cause considerable backlash from Georgia and, most likely, the West by extension. Because of this reality, Russia is somewhat hesitant in allowing South Ossetia to join its federation, as the already crippling sanctions on the country by the West could be made even worse. As Russia continues to fumble in Ukraine, a simultaneous war with Georgia could jeopardize Russian interests in both countries, since Russia can barely deal with Ukraine alone. I predict that if the referendum comes to pass, the South Ossetians will undoubtedly vote in favor of joining Russia. However, I cannot say whether Russia will accept the referendum or not due to all these external factors. The referendum would be labeled illegitimate by Georgia and its Western allies. If Russia accepts the referendum, we can expect significant sanctions and a military buildup on the Russo-Georgian border. Decisions like these will determine how many years Russia will have left before its inevitable collapse. Sometimes the decisions that put Russia in a more powerful position in this present will inevitably wreck them sooner in the long term. They can't truly juggle all of these issues at once as a civilization in decline. Perhaps that decline is a topic for another time. South Ossetia in particular has been a thorn in the side of Georgia, now serving as a Russian military outpost within their borders. The region's decisions will undoubtedly have long lasting effects on the country of Georgia and the Caucasus region as a whole. Only time will tell what happens next. Thank you for watching this exclusive Max World Politics Report. Stay tuned in the following weeks as I cover the Russo-Ukrainian war, related events, and their deep complexities.