 Well, this is the third international affairs capsule for Shankar IAS Academy. Today, we will talk about the latest developments in the Middle East, particularly the Gulf region. This is because of the news we have received recently that the embargo imposed by the Gulf countries against Qatar has been lifted. It is very rarely that we get good news from the Middle East. But this is indeed good news because since 2017, Qatar has been sanctioned by several Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE. Of course, when you talk of the Middle East, you know there are very many problems, ever since Israel was created in 1947 and Israel was completely isolated by the Arab countries at that time. Several wars had taken place. But after President Trump took over, he made a very sincere effort to change the situation in the Middle East. So if you look at his record of foreign policy achievements around the world, you will find very few of them. Except that he did not send American soldiers abroad to fight wars. All his foreign policy efforts were not particularly successful, whether it was Korea or with China etc. But in the case of the Middle East, he designated his own son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to create a better situation in the Middle East. But as it happened when Mr. Trump made his first visit in 2017 to the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, that this situation arose. That is, soon after President Trump left, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait decided to impose sanctions against Qatar. Here we have to remember the importance of Qatar. Qatar is one of the smallest countries in the GCC, that is the Gulf Cooperation Council. But it is the richest in the world in terms of per capita income. Because it has the biggest gas deposits in the world. In fact, Qatar shares an island with Iran from where all the gas is extracted. So Qatar has a deep involvement with Iran for that reason. And their per capita income is higher than any other country in the world because of the largest gas deposits. The second reason why Qatar is important is that the United States has a military base in Qatar with about 10,000 soldiers. It is called the CENTCOM, the Central Command of the United States is located in Qatar. Another reason why Qatar is important is because it also has the Al Jazeera news agency. You should know that Al Jazeera news agency was set up by some developing countries in order to counter western news channels like CNN or BBC, etc. To give more balanced reporting on the developing world. And much of the money came from the Arab countries and that is why it was set up in Qatar. Then Turkey has an air base in Qatar. So on this small island, which has only 29 lakhs of people. There is just in the world, it has US base, Turkish air base, it has the Al Jazeera and even CNN as a huge establishment in Qatar. But problems arose between Qatar and the other countries slowly over a period of time. For example, Qatar had some problems with bearing on the maritime border. Secondly, Qatar was closely associated with Iran because of their gas deposits being shared by Iran. And the problems which arose between Iran and the Gulf states had also an impact on the relationship between the Gulf states. And Qatar. So slowly these problems developed. And the suspicion was that Qatar was in fact assisting some terrorist groups in different parts of the Middle East. Particularly Egypt and some parts of Syria, etc. So out on the blue, nobody expected it because GCC countries were very much linked with Qatar. In fact, UAE imports gas from Qatar. A lot of intermarriages. They have many common companies, economy, economies of Qatar and the GCC countries were very close. But shocking Qatar, this announcement was made by these three countries. And we suspected that the person behind this was President Trump, though this was never acknowledged. Because when President Trump visited Saudi Arabia, that was the time that a huge arms supply was fixed with Saudi Arabia. $350 billion worth of arms and ammunition were purchased by the United States from Saudi Arabia. Sorry, by Saudi Arabia from the United States. So this became a huge contract and that started a better relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States. So in the old days, Saudi Arabia was the strongest opponent of the United States from GCC. But this arms deal made a big difference to the relationship between Qatar, sorry, from Saudi Arabia and the United States. So perhaps the United States found some agreement for some advantages in leaving Qatar out of the GCC because they could establish stronger influence and stronger trade relations with the other developed countries. But this particular development, Qatar took it very with some sense of resignation. They knew that this would come, but they did not accept any of the demands put forward by the GCC. There were 13 demands were put to Qatar and they did not agree to any of them. Instead, Qatar found its own way of development and its own way of selling gas and also its own way of traveling, but there are no flights available between GCC and Qatar. But they met in Europe, families would go out to other countries. Gas deals went on. Iran was friendly. There was this war in Yemen where Iran was involved from support by, was given by Qatar. That was also a problem with the GCC countries. So these two years, or little more than two years, Qatar did fairly well. What the GCC thought was that Qatar will come to its knees because of these various problems, the sanctions imposed on them would create. But to their surprise, it did not happen and Qatar became in fact more prosperous than their per capita income even went up. And the inconvenience were all for the GCC countries. So again, surprisingly, one fine morning, the GCC called a meeting in Saudi Arabia. In fact, this meeting was supposed to meet but take place somewhere else. But obviously, after negotiations in which other GCC countries helped, Saudi Arabia decided to normalize relations with Qatar. Not only Saudi Arabia but also the GCC countries. And this was done quite dramatically. It was two and a half years after the cutting off of diplomatic relations and the ambassadors were recalled and all that. The shake of Qatar, the ruler of Qatar, was invited to Saudi Arabia to attend the GCC summit. Not only that, it was a very warm perception. The Crown Prince, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, went and received him personally and warmly welcomed him. And an agreement was it arrived between all these countries that normalize, normalcy will return. So it is in the process of normalcy being returned to GCC. And this has helped the situation there for everybody. For the US, for India, because we had good relations with Qatar. In fact, during this crisis, Qatar decided that Indians could visit Qatar without visas because they wanted more Indians to come to work. And they liberalized the visa system for India. And now that the sanctions have ended, this has helped us also. But surprisingly, none of these conditions imposed by Iran or imposed by Saudi Arabia was accepted by Qatar. And therefore Saudi Arabia did not get much of a benefit from the sanctions. So the situation now is that Qatar is back in action in GCC also. In addition, they are active in Egypt. Qatar was suspected of supporting the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt. That is, that relationship has been disrupted, has not been disrupted. And things are doing well. But the situation is that with the improvement of relationship with Qatar, Iran's position has slightly improved. Iran, as you know, had signed an agreement with the United States, other four permanent members of the Security Council, and Germany, something called Joint Comprehensive Program of Action, the ACPOA, which you know about. And according to which, Iran was supposed to curtail its nuclear activities because of the suspicion that Iran was manufacturing nuclear weapons, which was partly confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Since 2002, this debate was going on. In fact, I was at the Atomic Energy Agency at that time from 2002 to 2004. That is when the international community came to know that Iran was engaged in enriching uranium with the purpose of making a bomb. Of course, Iran denied that they were not making a bomb. They were merely enriching uranium for peaceful purposes. The question was, why did Iran need nuclear power for peaceful purposes? Because Iran had plenty of oil. But as a gesture, Iran said, IAEA can come and inspect our facilities to make sure that we are not doing it. But when the Iranians, when the Atomic Energy Agency inspectors went to Iran, they started around the end of 2002. They could not confirm that Iran was not manufacturing nuclear weapons. So it was a kind of negative report. They said, we have no evidence to show that they are actually doing it. But we have evidence to show that several things are happening there. We seem to suggest, seem to indicate that this is not for peaceful purposes. And Iran gave some clarifications, etc., which are not acceptable to the IAEA. And the IAEA Director General reported to the Governing Council of the IAEA that they were unable to confirm that Iran was not engaged in nuclear weapon manufacturing. So the matter went to the Security Council. We also supported that resolution from the IAEA to the Security Council. And the Security Council imposed sanctions. And after that, several years of negotiations in 2015, this JCPOA was signed between the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany, which negotiated it. The reason why Iran accepted the so-called Iran nuclear deal was because the sanctions were insufferable for them. Iran was on the point of bankruptcy as a result of these sanctions. So the proud country that Iran is decided to stoop to conquer, as it were. They said our immediate need for us is to be able to sell oil, first of all, earn money and develop Iran further. So as a big sacrifice to their pride, Iran signed the agreement with these countries. Then the sanctions were listed and the terms of the agreement was that at least for 15 years Iran will not be manufacturing nuclear weapons. And some limits were imposed as to how much they can enrich uranium and how much oil they can sell. All these limitations were imposed on them. But things were working fairly well till President Trump came to power. President Trump asked a fundamental question as to why this agreement is limited only for 15 years. Because if you do that after 15 years, what? We have to renegotiate it. Or will not Iran immediately be able to create to manufacture nuclear weapons because they would have been enriching secretly even though there were inspections. So President Trump withdrew from the neutrality, like he withdrew from the climate agreement, from the trade agreements, from the agreement on Cuba. So like this way from of course the disarmament treaties. So several agreements they withdrew and he also withdrew from this. And the other signatories of the country were not very sure whether they should withdraw or not. They tried to persuade Mr. Trump to come back and he did not come back. And then Iran decided to start their nuclear activities even more strongly than before. And the United States imposed sanctions, its own sanctions, U.S. sanctions because the U.N. sanctions had gone. They imposed U.S. sanctions on Iran and they said that unless this agreement is negotiated and revised, these sanctions will continue. And also there were other incidents, the killing of the second most senior most Iranian general which happened in the early days of 2020. They started off this bad year 2020. Then recently an Iranian scientist was killed allegedly by Israel. So all these things happened while the agreement was not renegotiated. And now that President Trump lost the election, this matter has come up again. And President-elect Biden, he suggested that the agreement be revised more or less on the same terms. And if it is revised, negotiated, then America was willing to withdraw the sanctions against Iran. Iran is not unwilling to do that but at the same time they are showing a tough stand. And they have done two things. What they have done is they have told the IAEA that they have started enriching uranium to 20%. So that is weapons quality enrichment of uranium. And also just a few days ago they also tested a ballistic missile, nuclear capable ballistic missile. So while Iran is willing to continue negotiations and if possible have an agreement, they have solidified their position by saying that we are going ahead. So making it urgent for the new President of the United States to take action. Otherwise if nothing is done Iran will close all the agreements. So Mr. Biden has already said that he is willing to sign the agreement, the old agreement. But he indicated that so far it was only a European agreement. Other countries in the Gulf region were not involved in this. But other countries in the region like UAE and Saudi Arabia are even more anxious about Iranian bomb. And therefore in the new agreement these two countries should also be involved. Separately also there is a concern that Saudi Arabia and UAE are also thinking in terms of developing nuclear capability. And they may also go the Iranian way. So in this situation it is possible that some negotiations will take place and some agreement will be reached. And it is in this context that we have to see the stability coming back to the Gulf. Because Qatar was staying away from the other Gulf countries and was siding with Iran. Then the negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal may not be possible. So perhaps that may be one of the reasons why Saudi Arabia took the initiative to normalize relations with Qatar. This experiment with the ballistic missile I told you. Before that there was Iranians had seized a South Korean tanker, oil tanker, which was also a provocation. And there have been some exchanges between Iran and South Korea. But as far as I know the tanker has not been released. Then the other development that took place in the Middle East was that Israel normalized relations with several Gulf countries. Not Saudi Arabia as yet. But certainly UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan. These countries have normalized relations with Israel. As you know the Arab countries were totally against Israel. And together with that Iran also was very strongly opposed to Israel. And none of these countries have recognized Israel. One of the reasons why Israel maintains a nuclear capability is because it has not been recognized by the Arab countries. And the Arab countries had put in a condition that Israel will be recognized only if they withdraw from the Arab occupied territories to the border of 1967. Because it was during the 1967 war that Israel had occupied huge territories of Egypt, Syria, Jordan and so on. Therefore it was not possible to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. And part of the reasons why we also did not establish, we had diplomatic relations but we did not have an embassy in Tel Aviv. Because of our requirement that Israel should withdraw to the 1967 border areas. So in re-establishing relations with Israel, President Trump and his son-in-law Kushner played a very important role. And it appears that Saudi Arabia will be the next perhaps. Because Saudi Arabia will last to do that because even after their own close associates have established diplomatic relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia has not done so. But just a few weeks ago, there were reports that the Prime Minister of Israel, Mr. Netanyahu, had visited Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has denied this but at the same time there is some evidence that the Israeli Prime Minister indeed visited. You know that the Israelis do this, they have these secret visits when they don't have normal relationship. In fact, the Defense Minister of Israel had visited India also secretly at the time of Mr. Maraji Desai as Prime Minister. Of course, nobody knew about it except when Mr. Maraji Desai himself told the visiting British Member of Parliament that, oh, the other day Moshe Dayan was here. And that is how the news broke out. But anyway, this is something that Israel does. So maybe in the future we'll get the confirmation that Netanyahu actually went to Saudi Arabia. And at the same time to support whatever discussions that Israel was having with Saudi Arabia, the Secretary of State of the United States, Mike Pompeo, was there. And his photograph with Prince Alman was shown on television. So maybe something is brewing there and other Arab countries will also establish diplomatic relations. So the situation today in the Gulf, in the Middle East, is very different from what it was in 1949 or 1967. The Palestinians, as a result of all these changes, have become weaker. The Palestinian state, because all these countries accept in principle the decision of the United Nations General Assembly that there should be two states, Israel and Palestine. But Israel was born, Palestine was never born. But they have areas which are still within Israel, Gaza, Gaza Square. And so those areas though are Palestinian areas but they have not been recognized as a Palestinian state. One of the countries which recognizes the Palestinian state is India. We even have a diplomatic representation there. But they are under the supervision and control of the Israelis. And Jerusalem was supposed to be shared as the capital of Israel and Palestine. But unilaterally President Trump declared Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Which was a big provocation. So in normal circumstances this would have created a war as it had happened in the past. Because Jerusalem is wholly to the three religions and it is not to be monopolized by Israel. That was the understanding. But when Trump declared this and moved his embassy, of course there was protest around the world. But it was not a serious protest because people knew that there was no way in which the situation would be changed. So on the whole what you need to remember for your examination is the new situation in the Middle East and also the latest development between GCC and Qatar. So the important points to remember is that Saudi Arabia is in a very strong position and GCC countries are following Saudi Arabia in this matter. They are very much against the strengthening of Iran. But at the same time if the United States normalizes relations with or at least signs this agreement with Iran, the others will go along provided they also have a role in it. So you have to understand the situation relating to the agreement, the Iranian nuclear agreement and we will hear more about it as soon as President Biden takes over. And the negotiations will at least start. So the conditions are becoming better for understanding with Iran and Qatar will also be on the side of the Gulf countries in this particular matter. And therefore one of the steps that President Trump took would be neutralized. And also the situation in the Gulf will be more steady and peaceful. And that benefits India because we have large number of Indians in all the Gulf countries. So when the crisis came between Qatar and the Gulf countries, the country which was most concerned was not Qatar but India. Because we thought that the Indians may have to return and they may not have any access to go to any other Gulf countries etc. But as I said earlier Qatar was very resilient or very strong to resist this pressure and they also learned how to survive. So this is one aspect that you have to remember. The Yemen war may also subside because the Americans are now asking Iran not to send troops there or support the war in Yemen which is going on for years. Thousands of people have been killed. There is no solution and the Americans have been tough with Iran but still the war goes on. So hopefully there will be some solution to the war in Yemen. The crisis situation which prevailing in the whole world because of the pandemic, the cooperation among the countries of the region. Incorporating and fighting the COVID-19 may also improve. After the oil prices are still going up because of the international market and the production is less, the market is dull and the transportation is less. So this whole crisis apart from all the other problems that the Middle East had, the whole crisis of COVID-19 has not also been attended to by these countries because of the political situation. So this cooperative attitude will also be able to better the lives of the people in the Middle East. Of course there are still issues in Iraq, Syria and there are reports that the Islamic groups are regrouping themselves etc. But still there is some amount of calm. It is not peace. Because Libya there is an issue where some countries are supporting one group and the other countries are supporting the other. This is also under the consideration of the security council. So considering the highly explosive situation that was in the Middle East has been slightly eased. And that is the point you need to remember and you also need to remember the reasons why this has happened. And like all other issues now international issues will get some stability because unlike President Trump who seemed to go haywire doing various things without any logic or practical wisdom. Now we have a president who is consistent, who is thoughtful, who is experienced. So all this is going to benefit not only the United States but also the whole world. This new development in the Middle East is welcome and you will have to remember the story and also know all these. Why is Qatar important? Why was the GCC upset with them? Why did they sacrifice their own interests to set an extent by imposing the sanctions against Qatar? What is the position of Iran and the Iranian nuclear agreement? All these will have to be mastered for your examination. Thank you very much.