 The following is a presentation of TFNN, The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of The Power Trading Hour. And of course, it doesn't matter where you're at, as long as you're here at this time. The following takes place between 2pm and 3pm. So, oh, it says I'm low. I don't know about that. Everything looks here, although we can check. Make sure that I sound good. Oh, the audio clip was low, huh? Anyway, so what do we have? We're down 12 or 13 points. On the S&P cash down 70, on the down Aztecs off 82. Now we had, when we left you, we were getting ready for the Russell rebalancing and the volume was interesting. By the end of the day, we got 18 billion shares, which is about the same we had on the very lowest day where we turned back higher in what I was calling a selling climax. I suspect that on Friday we had a buying climax. It's just going to take a little bit more time to come in. And of course, we're kind of looking at fun buying also. And generally the way fun buying comes in is there is, well, for those people that are new. The last two days of the month and three days is generally written in the, it's kind of a contract for ETF. They have it, it's called a charter. Says that they'll be 100% invested in that five day range, generally the last two trading days of the month, first three trading days of the month. I've never seen anybody go to jail or get sued because they didn't, although there may be something I'm unaware of. But that means that it's about 80% of the ETFs actually do that. And I'm not unsure why it ever started that way, but it continues to be that way. So a lot of people call it window dressing, but that's when the market tends to be the most expensive because they just move the prices up and the 401k guys get the most expensive prices on average. And as, what was its name, Barnum, never give a sucker and even break was that him? Somebody else. Anyway, 401 folks get to pay up at the higher prices. So but generally just before you get into it, you get some kind of pullback, you get the easiest money that's run out and then the market moves a little higher into it. And then of course you pretty much hit some kind of high and then that kind of like a hangover tends to fade. So as we go into this week, the question is, and let me see if I can get this up here. That really means that kind of Wednesday and Thursday kind of are the beginning of it. It depends on the way that these fund managers actually decide that they want to or where they want to get long. You know, we're going into a three day weekend for the fourth of July and do they want to get in early? Do they want to wait and come back on the fifth because they can easily do that. They can come back on the fifth and sixth and finish coming up because of the way the calendar fills. But it's at this point, you're always looking for that big kind of washout before they start marking prices up. Now a lot of people think, well, it just doesn't matter anymore. Still a lot of people employed and that money has to come into the market. Question is whether or not the market tide is going out or in. But generally, they try to get all the selling done before this so they can mark the prices up as high as possible, i.e. window dressing. And so you get that kind of, put some lipstick on this pig. Let's put some lipstick on this pig. And that's kind of it. So we've got that kind of set up. That's why I suspect that if we're going to get some kind of high, it'll probably be sometime next week. If I wanted to get long, what I'm trying to wait for is some kind of pullback and let me know where that actually comes in. So generally, you're looking for before next Tuesday some kind of one day, big day down, maybe not a lot of volume. But again, we're not going to let people go into this weekend probably easily into what they think is going to be a higher next week. I've said that we're looking for some kind of print around $4,000 on the S&P cash before that. But I wouldn't be surprised to pull back more closer to $3,800 only to see us go up to $4,000 by, what are we going to call it, now I had it up and let's go back and look at the calendar here yet again. And that would be okay. So you get the fifth, we're back on the fifth, closed on the fourth. You could continue to the seventh that could. After that, after fund buying, there's generally a pullback of about 1% on average, both in bull and bear markets. And that's just the 401k money coming in. And of course, most people don't think about it a lot, but there are organic reasons for movements of money and prices in the market and that's part of it. You want to make a distinction, a lot of people don't understand the distinction between money managers and the fund managers. And fund managers buy and sell generally ETFs or positions or hedge funds and they try to get the best response in the market they can. But that also assumes that they're going to have 100% of the money in the market. The money managers on the other side of that hedge those positions. They'll buy futures, they'll buy options, they'll do all kinds of stuff to help them if there's any kind of blowout in the market, they'll always have those hedges sitting out there. And of course, we talked about the end of options rollover where you get a day or two in that where everybody's trying to hedge their positions or has hedge is that have to be taken off and new ones put on depending on market conditions. So there's generally a first seven, eight days of the month you kind of get a much better idea what the market's actually going to do then you get into options expiration then you get into fund buying. So there are some currents and cross currents that come through the market identifying them as a good way to maybe hold your powder dry until there's a better position. At the moment we're looking for some kind of pullback and then that would set up maybe a rally through bid next week. We'll be back in a minute. Blooming inflation, we are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money than in gold. This the gold flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold Project in the northern territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. This is a large scale, low cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. This the gold just completed the Mount Todd feasibility study which resulted in a seven million ounce gold reserve in a 16 year mine life. All of this combined with the approvals of all major operational as well as environmental permits. This the thing which is Mount Todd is an attractive, diverse party, ready development stage gold project. This the gold trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol VGZ. Are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges at which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges David White is able to find the path of least resistance. David White's trading newsletter The Path of Least Resistance is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. Visit TFNN.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Take the path of least resistance at TFNN Educating Investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien found a TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com, TFNN Educating Investors. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. As we return, let's do a little history and then we'll get into some other stuff. During this day in 1972, the iconic video game company Atari was founded by Nolan Bushnell and Ted at Dabney. Their first video game Pong was the first commercially successful video game and led to the start of the video game industry. And of course, their arcade games really, well, I guess that's the arcade game came out. It was looking through, it couldn't really tell whether or not it was the arcade game that shipped today in 1972 or the Pong game. But all of that kind of stuff started pretty much today. Flash forward to about 1995 or six. Of course, Nolan was pushed out by, I'm going to say 1981 or two as a few things were going on in the market. It was tough. It was a recent IPO maybe two or three years, I think it IPO'd 1978 or so. And of course, people really, there weren't a lot of tech IPOs at the time and a lot of people didn't know that it was going to be some fairly big highs and lows in it. They wanted to stable companies back then and they kind of forced him out. He went off to create, that pizza place for the kids, all animatronic animals. Yeah, I'm just having a blank at the moment. Somebody in the den probably knows, tiger, what is it? I'll think about it. So place for kids to give each other lots of their Chuckie cheese, yeah. Place for the kids to give each other lots of diseases. Only can think of how many diseases in the ball pit was wherever transferred, but he actually had that for a while. Anyway, he was thinking about coming back and buying Commodore business machines as they were in trouble. I think in 1995, I wonder if I can even go back and look at the date, find it if I went back through my records. I do not know. All I remember is we were in a hotel suite in Chicago, flew up for the day to discuss. We were making a bunch of products for the Commodore Amiga at the moment and I had just checked in on the email circuit and found out that Commodore had fired or let go actually a bunch of the programmers and they got into it for about an hour, hour and a half in the morning. Of course, the whole idea was that they were going to buy the company and the chairman of the board and CEO at that time was a guy named Irving Gould. It was very interesting because there were a lot of things he could have done and really would have made Commodore a huge success in business. But the guy literally understood nothing about the computer industry, made a lot of decisions based on what was good for him and not was good for the company and proceeded just to loot the thing. I went up a couple of months later in the, I think it was, it's in Pennsylvania. I can't remember now either. It's been so long ago. All I remember was going behind the office, I want to say it was in Westchester, going behind the office in Westchester, New York. There were hundreds of tractor trailer, not the rigs, the trailers and all of them were stuffed with Commodore 64 returns, most of them. So a few of them had returns from their Amiga brand of computers but I went back and it was like going into the raiders of the last arc where they just look, you don't see the end of the building and it kind of has its own atmosphere and clouds by the end and just the fog kind of rolls in at the end of it. And it really didn't hit me how much money you could make running a company bankrupt until of course Kmart and some of these other ones and Sears came along and I really understood the play and how long you can sucker other people into a big brand name. But anyway, I had that meeting with him for about an hour and a half. All I remember is it was cold and nasty and rainy and I'd flown in from Cincinnati and anyway he got about an hour and then they were getting ready to take a break and I asked him and this was all about them trying to buy it and I asked him just before the break he kind of shut up. I said I have one question. I said how does all the firing of the software programmers for the Amiga stuff, how does that fit into this and of course nobody back then, you check your email but did you really check the boards on what was going on? Internet was that. Anyway, he hadn't heard, no one knew, I figured he already knew and well everybody broke for about 30 minutes they came back and they said okay it's over, you can all have the rest of your day and that was it. So I dropped the proverbial baby Ruth in the punch bowl that day but got to talk to him for about 15 minutes after the meeting was over and that was the only time I met him but he was an interesting guy and interesting history, made several companies and I think that's it. On this day in 1972 I would eventually meet this man for a very short time when he tried to buy out or was going to thinking about buying out Commodore Business Machines. 877-927-6648, email me at path at tfnn.com I had a pretty good question I don't probably spend enough time on it about the theory of the way I trade so we're going to talk a little bit about that when I come back. We've got another question about super forecasting and I ran along some more information on that if you're unfamiliar with a book I have it. There isn't a lot to it. There are a number of things that are technical that I actually love in there. For the average trader there's not a whole lot other than probably the most interesting thing and that is exports are incredibly wrong and I was listening to the audio version of Annie Duke, her think and bets book from I think it's 2018 or 2019 I hadn't listened to it for a while. I forgot about her explanations about experts and we'll talk a little bit more about that when we come back but she has some fairly good ideas I really like that well I listened to the audio book because my eyes are pretty much blistered by the time we get done looking at these screens all day long so I tend to listen to audio books but she has some fairly good ideas about listening or thinking in bets and but she had this part in there about experts I'll be back in a minute. The XAU, HUI, GDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report sign up now by visiting TFNN.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Inn. 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TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, the Art of Timing the Trade Charts. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, the Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including Guardleys, ABCs, Butterflies and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. And we're back. And more why we less charts a little bit more of the way I think today. We'll get into some charts later. But I bring up this book from time to time. It's Super Forecasting by Philip Tetlock. He's one of the few people to ever actually have a real study of how good people are in making predictions. Anyway, he ran a study at a college for 20 years and had a lot of predictions and figured out kind of the best way to get a lot of people to come up with some predictions and come up with probably the best guess about where things are going to go. But it hit me like a ton of bricks when that book came out. And I read it because I read it, I think right after it came out. It was a recommendation. But there's a good part in there where the experts are just terrifically wrong. And they tend to be wrong worse than folks would even hazard to think. And you would think that these people are supposed to be smart. They're supposed to know stuff. They have inside knowledge. Some of these folks made predictions on whether there would be wars or not. And they weren't as good as a handful of people living out in the countryside of Nebraska. And you got to have to think, why is that? And I had hit the other book that I was talking about a minute ago, Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets. And I'd forgotten about this because I'd listened to it before, but was listening to it again this weekend. But she brings up a great point in some studies. I think in about the second or third chapter of the book about a big study. And what they did was they made up a bunch of data. Then they paid a variety of statisticians to go and look at that data and make predictions. So what they did is made up one data set and then told people it represented different things, but of course it was all made up. So the first thing was, and this has been replicated several times. So it's not something that's just kind of a one-off deal. I think there's been five studies and they pretty much come up with the same thing. Anyway, they had statisticians, people that probably should know more, and they'd have them analyze the data. And the first time they told them it was some kind of skin cream that helped with rations. And this was the results for the numbers. And you know what? They pretty much came up with the right decision based on the data, although of course this was a phony study. But then they changed it up and made the data part of a political decisions. Things like guns and gun control and crime and a lot of other stuff. And they found out that not only did the people that are supposed to know the best, the statisticians, not only did they do poorly, the smarter they were, the worse they actually did. The more they knew about the data, the more that they actually got it wrong and purposely got it wrong. And driving to that outcome is interesting. But every time you see these folks and they all tell you that inflation is transitory, we don't see this or that of the other, just remember those folks that are telling you that are probably worse off in making predictions than some guy that you bumble into in the middle of nowhere than somebody that has lots of high education. Anyway, what they did find out was that when they made it political, actually the people didn't find better results. They actually found out and did ways to make it look more as what they believed in. So beware of the guy that actually tells you he knows it all. And the smarter they are, the harder it is to actually apply actual science. And there's a couple things going on in the narrative of the press in the United States where people really couldn't get it that wrong, could they? Well, yes, they can and they do. So watch out for it. But that's it. Now, another thing, so I disdain just about anybody that tells me anything that says they're an expert because generally other people are better off at telling us that. And there's a variety of reasons. I think one of the reasons that you may have an edge on the stock market is you don't live in New York City. All your kids don't go to the same school. You don't all vote the same way. There's a lot of things that give you an advantage of being able to look out there if you can and be dispassionate about why things go higher and lower and just look at things going higher and lower. Now, one of the other questions I had today just before the show was one of the wisdom of crowds indicators that I put in the newsletter each day. And this goes back to I think about 1900 from a scientist named Galton who went to a country fair in England. I think it was about 1902 or three and saw them having a raffle for a steer. I think the steer was like 800 pounds or something. Anyway, everybody had to guess the weight of the steer. And some people guessed five pounds. Some people guessed 2,000 pounds. And the closest guess was off like 50 pounds. But the average of all the guesses was only off like I think 10 or 11 pounds. So the average of the guesses was better than the closest guess of any individual. So in my newsletter each morning I have kind of a wisdom of the crowd charts where I put a lot together and whether or not it's the moving average or short term moving average or displaced moving average of the 26 different sectors in the market or the TD-9s which can be quite noisy. When I put them all together you tend to get a much better view and in machine learning it's called boosting and bagging. Sometimes called ensemble methods. They're all kind of in that same kind of area. But there is a kind of wisdom to the crowds. If you haven't ever read this book, The Wisdom of Crowds, I think it's another must read for a trader after you read some of the other ones that I put in the newsletter every day. But all these are probably good food for the mind if you're trying to figure out the way I think about the markets. And that is try to think of them as a whole then focus in on the individual stocks. But anyway, The Wisdom of Crowds is nothing more than everybody's big guess and take the average. And it's generally about 80% is going to be better than any individual guess. And if you go in and take first year statistics most teachers these days will put a gallon jar and put it full of marbles or M&Ms or something like that. And everybody in the class has to guess how many are in there. And they show that once you get past about 25 people with marbles anyway, the standard kind of marble, the average of the guesses is always better than the any or the closest individual guess. So Wisdom of the Crowds, thinking bets, a lot of what I think about there. But I tend to use indicators collectively instead of individually. We'll be back in a minute. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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Is it broken? Okay, let's try reloading it here. And then we'll get to it. Anyway, some great books there if you want to do a little bit more thinking than less. Okay, let's close that. Okay, and it reopened. There we go. Yeah, you can be wrong. Okay, we answered that, I think. But if you have more questions, any of my subscribers or any of the listeners, if I don't, I'm not incredibly verbose for typing, because I'm generally typing all day already. But that'll be it. Okay. We wanted to go through some charts out here. Tentlock was wrong in 2016. Okay. Been looking at some charts out here that held some lows. Let's go ahead and look at some of these other ones. I wanted to see how they were doing today, mostly because they found some lows. I don't know what the stock is. Let's see. Let me dry it here so we may. Black Knight Ordinary Shares. We had some charts actually make and test some lows. And this one I felt very interested in just because of the test of the previous low on incredibly lighter volume. And a lot of times I use the show to get two stocks that I do not have the time to get to myself. Provides integrated software data and analytics solutions in North America. Software segments include software and hosting solutions. MSP, software as a service application for mortgage, home equity loans, and lines of credit. But anyway, you had a 10 million share day back on May 4th, 6222. Got into it with 855,110% of that. And you got a bounce. Now, you're up to this gap down that goes back to the 10th. So maybe you want to be out today. But Wycoff Style Trades, where you come in and you try to buy lows on lighter volume. It was an interesting one. Bristol Myers Squibb had been hanging up here at the highs. I wanted to see what this one was doing today. You wanted probably something in the neighborhood of 22 million shares when it broke through the highs. You got about seven and a half million shares so far today. So, wimpy, wimpy, wimpy. If you're into... Yeah, wimpy, wimpy, wimpy. Wimpy, wimpy, wimpy. Yeah, wimpy, wimpy, wimpy so far today. So, keep an eye on that one. CDEV. Now, this one, I wanted to see whether or not it made a low today. About the same energy on the way up and the way down. The Centennial Resource Development CDEV had a 22 million, 23 million share low on May 20th, $6.37. So, you come into it with a high of about 13 and a half million shares. Well, you have 13 and a half million shares. You could call it maybe 15 million shares, but still 7 million shares lighter. There aren't a lot of great stocks out here, but there are a lot that are giving more than kind of vague hand signals on whether or not they found at least temporary lows. Cleveland Cliffs, which is kind of interesting. It had more of, and we were talking last week about the rule of alternation. Much better example here where you have pretty much a straight move higher to 3404, and then you get the ABC on the way back down. So, just more to think about in that rule of alternation from Prector's system, which is I think is the only good thing I got out of it. But anyway, Cleveland Cliffs, $15.81, 35 million shares for that January 24th low. You got into it with 20 million shares. Energy on the last leg down was a little bit more, but not as bad as it could be. So, maybe there's something out here. It's off a little bit. Maybe you get one more retest down there about $15, but very interesting to see those at lows seeing volume start to actually dry up. Cummings didn't really, yeah, about the same volume. So, I'll take that off my list. Delta Airlines, another one out here. Get rid of that. 8779276648, by the way, as you decide to buy some tiger dollars and subscribe to my newsletters or the Art of Timing straight charts. Delta Airlines, another one with a fairly decent test of the lows. It's not jumping right off, but again, I said, yeah, these things did kind of come down with very interesting energy. March 8th, $29.75. He had 35 million shares. And what'd you get? He had 29 million shares. You dropped by about 6 million. You're back kind of trying to fill this double gap out here, but could it be a whole lot worse? Yeah, it could. It could have come in with extensively more volume. Some of the other ones out here on a little longer time frame. John Deere, which I kind of liked a lot of this farming ag thing, which I don't know if it's giving the signals today, gapped up on February 19th of 2021. And you came into it with 4 million shares. When you go back to that gap higher, it went up on about 4.8 million shares. So I thought maybe there'd be a little bit more, mostly because of this high volume low on May 20th, that had 8.8 million shares. You only had four. So you got a little bit of a bounce here. Could you be finding some decent lows? Well, if people start starving, I imagine John Deere will probably continue to do well. When we get into the gold miners, let's go back here a little bit. You are still kind of hanging out while this is dust, which is the reverse. Probably the only good thing is that you did come in to the previous high. This is May 12th, $18.93 with 5.3 million shares. Got into it with 2.6 million shares. So pretty weak down here. Energy is about the same on the way up, on the way down. But not really backing off that other side either. Inside day, on Friday and today, kind of a coach. We'll be back in a bit. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure. But you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry tedious text either. 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When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating Investors Next on TFNN. What else do we have out here? A question about Nike on earnings tonight. I probably wanted to go back and look a little bit more about that here just to make sure. But yes, it is tonight along with Jeffries and a few others. Let's see if there's anything tomorrow morning. Nothing tomorrow morning of note. Tomorrow night, same thing. Wednesday, General Mills, bed, bath, and below. Let's see if there's anything we have on Wednesday night. I'll thank you much. Anyway, you've got... Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible