 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday June 1st. It is June now Chief meteorologist John Ensworth for Longmont Public Media and back in different and quieter digs for recording Also with my little summer cut. I'm ready for summer Tuesday June 7th. We have our first quarter moon looking very beautiful in the evening sky Taking a look at the Sun. This was last week's solar face image at the time of recording and here It is this week, you notice Sunspot over here is joined by a second one And the other one kind of faded out. We'll be fun to watch maybe for a month the Sun rotate one time Wow, this new story did come out. There was a giant Sunspot complex on the back side So it'll be interesting to see that come around and maybe threaten us with some criminal mass ejections and some aurora activity Looking at drought. Well things got better. We got rain and Since this came out we've got even more rain So you can see some lessing in the drought out on the plains more of that, please Take a look nationally kind of clicking forward a little worse off here little less Bad on the edge of the Great Plains So just need a major change to the pattern to start bringing continual storms into the West We need a little kick in which we talked about last time a few more weeks for this Let's watch this animation of actually just a progression of images until we get to the latest 97% normals for a statewide snowpack. So we recovered with those storms. We even got some of the higher elevations I heard maybe got six to twelve inches of snow Tuesday and a Wednesday, so we could I know it's amazing might cross that Line to a little bit above normal before we finally plunge into summer Looking at the precipitation for Boulder County amazing amount of water point eight point seven point nine West of town more like two-thirds of an inch Boulder looks very similar point seven five point eight point nine right there But inch inch and a half down a broom field inch and a half in Denver proper more like port point four inches or so Around Fort Collins and up in the mountains west of there, but all that water is fantastic And it looks like we're gonna kind of hold on to more rain chances here So here's what mostly yesterday's Tuesdays the end of May storm look like it was Pretty much north of the springs kind of included the springs and some of this precipitation up here actually came from the previous storm You see the West definitely needs Return to moisture. That's hard to do when we get these shallow cold fronts and upslope being the mechanism on this side of the mountains Here's our animation for the chances of severe weather as we go into The first week of June and you can see where we are Collected the dot they have all put that back Very high chances relatively speaking from North Texas to Kansas and that's gonna happen this week You can see his whole nose back in here because often we get lows your warm front and get stuff forming along up here So yep, we should be looking for more hail especially in June That's one of our specialties long I-25 our Junes where we've had so much hail hit That they've had to bring the snow plows out to clear the interstate and side streets And looking at for those actual forecasted chances for weather We have some convection possible along I-25 Thursday kind of up to four columns Then Friday we have a marginal risk of severe weather right along I-25 up and down through the state We'll slight risk down here in New Mexico and Texas penhandle So yeah, we'll keep an eye on that Especially over at Longmont leader and Broomfield leader see if anything More comes from that severe weather chance usually the time of year like I said, it's hail But you never know that tomato might be something you have to look out for damaging winds So going Wednesday into Thursday, we have the departing storm We have a little dry spot north of Denver and There's a little moist shot here on the plains. It could kick off some stuff and then for Saturday We have that Friday night Saturday. We have that chance of severe. We'll see Well the next 10 days our normal high temperature goes from 77 to 81 the normal low from 48 to 51 See a pretty warm period here for the weekend Cool the beginning of next week and you can see rain chances off and on it There's the ensembles are seeing much more moisture much more Possibility of especially wandering after the thunderstorms notable upper air and forecast map events for the next week is by Saturday, we have a ridge coming over the state actually Friday into Sunday Giving us those really warm temperatures On Monday in a Tuesday, you have this trough approaching doesn't look like much It's sort of a zonal flow with the jet stream going east to west across the nation But these little ripples are enough to kick off some activity There's a bull's-eye of precipitation here and the we'll see in the animation The this kind of goes for about a day and a half Okay, so let's do that. Let's put it in motion. Here's the ridge coming Thursday into Friday Building over the west as I hinted the next trough out here ridge sitting over on Sunday Then the trough finally starts moving in flattening out the ridge pattern On Monday into Tuesday very slow moving all shallow Trough coming across the state to be replaced next Wednesday by another ridge moving in And by next weekend that June 10th That's a pretty good ridge, but this is Northwest flow You can get thunderstorm complexes with little ripple ripples in the flow that come moving down cross-Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma Northwest fall like that can cause Measles scale convective complexes so big thunderstorm batches it can last for a day or two And so here's our cold area departing with this current front We're going to Friday noon get some thunderstorms popping up there That's what those blobs were warm temperatures for the weekend cold air is not far away on the northern plains and it actually on Monday Tuesday We get what's called a backdoor cold front kind of pushing in from the northeast and then the cold air kind of gets damned up And the lower elevations on the plains You can see the mountains kind of the southwest mountains and western slopes get warm and stay kind of warm next week Okay moisture really not in monsoonal flow right now We're still doing with fronts, but I do want to point out that the entire western US is getting a lot more Precipatable water so the atmosphere is a abnormally moist throughout the depth. And so yeah, it's good news Here's our little front coming in Tuesday And then Wednesday That pushes some of the moisture away Briefly and then it starts to Build right back up. So yeah More moisture on the ensemble more moisture in the atmosphere with the GFS. That's pretty good right there So let's take a look at the departing showers on Wednesday morning away. They go How you drive until Friday you can see thunderstorms form Thursday is thunderstorms on Friday Saturday kind of dry stuff up here in the northeast corner Dry through Monday, and then the next system starts to bring some showers in there's a low down here Moving away showers lingering around the low stays here another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, and then that all kind of clears out Great of Friday next week. Yeah stuff south of us, but nothing big through the next five days Yeah, the fronts and the cooler air will stay on the east side of the continental divide The precipitation is also expected pretty much there If you bring in the next 10 days, that's some serious moisture out here, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma border And some good amounts not too far from I-25. There's three quarters of an inch over the boulder Half an inch or so up along I-25 here. Keep it moist. That's all we really need to ask So the next 10 days snow is pretty pitiful and higher elevations not worth really talking about So we start cool on Wednesday slowly warm up to 80s for a beautiful weekend Go out to the pools maybe and then we start to cool down the beginning of next week with some more showers coming in with that system Our next thing I do is a little special segment here taking a look at these outlooks Keep putting up the next month outlook and then saying well the previous month really didn't turn out that way I want to take doing a little analysis of that So here's the June outlook that I had up last week You can see above normal chances of above normal temperatures through out much of the nation a little bit of blow up there in Pacific Northwest One week later they put out another forecast and look how much that changes They really suppress the above normal temperatures to the southern parts of the nation and brought a lot of below normal land That's for the exact same period. So one week later their opinion has changed quite a lot and over the last Few months it's pretty much always given us equal chances of dry or moisture than normal and equal chances of hotter cold or above normal temperatures Let's take a look at what actually happened. So December through April 2021 2022 actual temperatures Remain real close to normal and if I narrowing just January and April we were below normal temperatures and you probably Felt that you were chilly most of the time. We're always having to grab a light jacket. We definitely had Warm periods we pushed and broke 90 a couple times, but that was quickly replaced by cool air Take a look at precipitation same thing last week's forecast is Pretty dry for us Not much precipitation nationwide and then the forecast made for the 31st for all of June Brings us equal chances of moist above normal kind of hinting Kind of stretching Northwest to Southeast across the nation in a pretty small area below normal It actually happened December through April was we were really close to normal We were not abnormally dry Texas was on the West Coast And then if you take a look at January to April Same thing Texas wasn't that bad because it got some precipitation in the mid-winter And the West Coast is about the only place it remains super dry So just kind of looking at the data versus the forecast You will continue to take that national service monthly forecast of the grain of salt So check out long amount later room fill later for frequent weather updates And it really is a severe weather moves in or Storm comes in on there putting the latest data up and I'm putting storm totals afterwards up So please check those out. We also get some great local news and Colorado news in general This has been the weather forecast. I'm chief me over to John endsworth. Keep looking up