 Hi, my name's Liam Rowe, currency trader and trading coach at trading180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand for us in gold, fundamental and technical analysis for the week ahead starting the 25th of March. Hope you all had a great trading week and if you do like the videos that I provide every week and find them useful, please don't forget to press that like button, subscribe as well as share this content on your social media platforms. So getting into the week ahead and this week, the focal point in the United States will revolve around the PCE prices alongside reports on personal income and spending and speeches by several Fed officials, including chair Powell, drawing significant investor attention. Other key data points include durable goods orders, the final Q4 GDP growth reading, CB consumer confidence and housing market indicators such as new and pending home sales. In Germany, market watches will be keen on updates regarding GFK consumer confidence, retail sales and the unemployment rate and it will be a busy week in Japan with the Bank of Japan summary of opinions, unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales and housing starts. And finally, Canada will release its February GDP growth estimates. And so although a fairly busy week, not as busy as what we saw last week, a lot of fireworks went off, a lot of unexpected moves and expected moves in the market and we're going to go over that in just a little bit. And but before we do, I'm just going to go into a couple of trades that I took this week, one winner, one loser. And the first was the Euro Yen. So the Euro Yen, a bit of analysis on this, and I'll get into the real kind of more specifics in terms of the fundamentals a bit later when I analyze the Yen. But I had a loser on this trade. I think many traders would have ended up losing on this in terms of the result of the trade, right? So I had anticipated that the Bank of Japan were going to high crates. I mean, it was kind of expected that they would high crates. Now, the danger in that is that you do, you can get liquidity, massive liquidity hunts in a big event, especially when the Bank of Japan have hiked rates. It's the first time in hiking rates in like 17 years. And so what I did was I entered a small position ahead of the news, maybe about a couple of hours before, I think it was. And I only entered one position just with my stop loss around the 163066 level. And the reason why I entered one rather than my usual three was because if there was going to be any volatility and I get stopped out, first of all, I don't think I was awake during that time when it came out at three in the morning. If I did end up getting stopped out, I could wake up in the morning. And then if prices had started to go in the direction, then I would reenter again. So I only entered into a small position, only one position, set one market order. And the market went the other way on a hike. Now, a lot of traders would have been scratching their heads and saying, well, why is the yen going the other way? It doesn't the textbook say that if you, you know, central bank's hike interest rates, then that should appreciate a currency. And typically, usually it does. On this occasion, though, it was seen as more of a dovish hike. And again, I'll get into that a bit later. But that was the loss and prices went a lot higher. Now, I actually am in another trade somewhere around this high. I'm not really going to get into it in this video, but it's a, as it was round here, and it is a stop hunt. So stop hunt in around here. So I'm short again on this euro yen. So let's see how that works out. And if it starts to work out, I mean, whether it works out or not, I'll update you guys next week on the trade, trade idea and see how that trade plays out. The Aussie CAD was the next one. This was actually a winner. And so this was a daily demand zone. Prices have come down into this daily demand zone. And on the there was some news with regards to inflation on the Canadian dollar. And it was expected and forecasted to go come out higher than the previous and actually came lower than expected, much lower than the previous. And so that was wasn't great news for the Canadian dollar. And so I entered at the 0.8869 area with my stop loss around the 0.8819 price point. And prices came up hit a one to one. Typically I take off 50%. But I thought that I'll take off 80% partial profit, get myself into a profitable position. And then I'm just swing trade in the 20%. And I didn't manage to actually get back into this trade as in terms of enter into multiple positions. Because price just didn't pull back and hit my 50% pending order or even the or even the 95% pending order. So once prices hit the my profit target, then I cancel these orders. So although prices come down since, I'm not entering into any new trades based on this entry. I'm entering trade into this because I do think that prices should want to go higher based on a new entry now. So I'm still in this trade. I haven't actually trailed my stop loss up. And although I should really start to do that glad I didn't because I would have been stopped out that 20% that I left on the table from that trade. But I will start to trade it up if I don't get stopped out. And I want to probably add to this if I can get another entry at some point. So the Australian dollar, a decent winner and the Euro yen was a loser. But I am back in around here. And many of you guys who know about stop hunts, really, it's, it's, it's the stop hunt has happened right there. So you see where you've got prices come back inside. So that's where the stop hunt is. And that's where I've I've entered. So let's see what happens this week. And if we can get prices actually start to roll over, which I think they should do. So yeah, let's get into the the week's fundamentals and starting off on the US dollar and go into the daily. And what we have here is this is a equally weighted dollar index. And I have a video on the equally weighted dollar index. If you look at the top right hand side of the screen, you can click on there and understand why I use it equally weighted rather than something like the dollar index, the DXY or the USDX. Now this week was quite interesting in terms of the Federal Reserve. Their statement on FOMC statement on Wednesday was actually quite a bit dovish or considered dovish. And it says here the headlines that the US Fed holds policy steady and sticks with free cut view for 2024. There was the potential for them to actually say two, but they stuck with three. And it says here the Federal Reserve left the Fed funds target rate unchanged and continues to indicate the rebases 25 basis point cuts is the most likely path ahead for 2024. This is modestly dovish, but with growth and inflation projection revised higher, the Fed believes that the risk that the risk is that interest rates will be higher than previously thought over the longer term. So over the longer term, that's actually quite hawkish, but in the medium to short term, you know, the Fed cuts are considered a bit dovish and the market has definitely started to price in the fact that rate cuts are coming in June. So if we go to June here, June the 12th is when that's expected. If you look at ease right here, you'll see that there's a 75% chance of an ease and a 24% chance of a no change. Now, about a week ago, the chance of a no change was 41%. And the chance of an ease was 55%. So the chance of a cut has increased. Now, on the chart, it doesn't necessarily reflect that. And so there is actually an opportunity if you did want to look for short trades, you know, as confluence in terms of you're not trading, you know, the equally weighted dollar index, you're looking for this as confluence of prices come up to a nice technical level. And if you do want to get short on a dollar pair, then you know, you've got that as confluence. So you if you can look for some short trades now, I'm of the belief that I'm still looking for long dollars at the moment until really inflation starts to show that the Federal Reserve are going to, you know, cut a lot more and the market is a bit more dovish on the dollar. So for now, I am actually still more bullish than I am bearish on the dollar. So I'll wait for more of a pullback into a zone for that demand zone there. You've got a lower demand zone here before looking for confluence and to go long. But if this week, as we mentioned, I think they got the PCE prices, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, if that does start to come down quite a lot, then in fact, I will look for some short trades on the dollar. Yeah, so that's really where we are with the dollar. Dollar yen. So this week again, the market was pretty much surprised by the move or everyone pretty much was surprised by the Bank of Japan move. And so talking about the dovish hike, so it says here the yen is vulnerable to Fed after Bank of Japan keeps traders guessing on more hikes. And so it says here that the currency is sliding versus the dollar hit 2008 lows against the euro. And ultimately, a dovish, a dovish hike. So what is really a dovish hike? And how it was kind of interpreted was the fact that once the Bank of Japan hiked rates, they didn't give any guidance whether they would hike more. Now, typically, and usually, when central banks hike rates, it's normally in a cycle, right? There's an interest rate cycle, there's an inflation cycle, there's a GDP cycle, you know, things moving cycles, right? And so when central banks are cutting, it typically means that they're going to be cutting and historically, they tend to cut, you know, several times. It's very rare that they just cut once or hike once, right? And so with the Bank of Japan, they're on the hiking cycle, they're on this end of the cycle. And so when Ueda came out and said, you know, and hiked rates, the market was unsure as to whether they would be hiking. Again, there was no indication that they would continue to hike, which the market interpreted as being quite dovish. But about a day or two later, you know, the Bank of Japan watches see the next rate hike by October and risk of faster moves. So economists flag risk that bank may move faster than expected. Polis indicate one five five are likely yen level to prompt intervention. And so it says here the Bank of Japan will raise rates again by October and may hike at faster than expected pace with yen weakness among factors that may come into play according to Bloomberg survey of economists. So the fact that the bank, the yen actually weakened after a hike is undesirable, right? For a central bank. They actually want the market and they want their currency to appreciate because it didn't appreciate that puts pressure on the Bank of Japan to try to get try to implement moves like intervention and more hikes to actually get the currency to start to appreciate again, right? And appreciate meaning on the yen because it's the quote currency, not the base currency, they want the yen to strengthen against the dollar, which would mean the yen coming down, right? So from from that perspective, just because, you know, the first hike after 17 years didn't appreciate the yen, it doesn't mean that it's not going they're not going to, you know, they're going to be happy with that and they're not going to do anything about it. So just, you know, just one trade, you know, you lose one trade on that. For me, anyway, nothing's changed. They're still looking to hike, of course. So and appreciate their currency. So for me, any short trades around here is decent. Now, I would say, if I'm looking to buy the yen, it wouldn't necessarily be against the dollar reason being is because I think the dollar is one of the although, you know, I'm actually more bullish than I embarrass on the dollar. I'm looking for a weaker currency than the dollar to to trade against the yen. So I'm looking for a very, very weak currency. So so with that, although it's lying it's lining up to be a very, very nice trade and some shorts and even a stop sign just above here. I think I'm going to ignore this trade until the Federal Reserve really starts to get a lot more dovish and on their on their rate cuts. And so we have now a situation where you've got one central bank looking to hike rates, another one looking to cut rates, and the closer the Fed gets to cutting rates, that's where you're going to see or you should see the the yen actually start to strengthen a lot more. So there is a definitely a nice setup here and just above here from a stop-hunt perspective. But I'm already in two yen trades. I'm in the euro yen and I'm also in the cad yen. So I never want to overload the any kind of yen shorts. So those are really your options. If you don't want to be a buyer of the dollar, though, you'd have to really kind of wait for prices to pull all the way back down to the 147s from a daily demand zone perspective. There's really nothing in between any levels that I would look towards to look to buy the dollar and less prices, of course, make higher highs. Right. If you want to be long, you have to wait for a higher high to be made and then a pullback into that higher low before looking at long trades. Looking at the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD. This week, the Canadian dollar one second. The reason why I'm more short on the short bias on the Canadian dollar was because last week, the core inflation metrics give Bank of Canada room to talk cuts. So as we kind of highlighted in on the Aussie CAD trade that I took, the inflation came down and closer to the bank's 2% target, which should weaken the Canadian dollar over the medium term. And so this is basically what's started to happen now. This is a more of a trickier pair to trade because both central banks are cutting rates. But if I had to go for one of the two, I'd probably say the dollar, the US dollar is in a better position. So I think any pullbacks into this area here decent for a long trade. But if you do want to look for short trades, this is decent as well. You can even look for a really nice stop hunt because you could if the Fed starts to get a bit more dovish and inflation does prove that it's coming down to their 2% target and the dollar starts to be a sell, then I think anywhere around now or a stop hunt or up into the into this supply zone here should be decent for a short trade. The pound dollar and the pound dollar. I exited this trade the previous week and it actually turned out to be a really nice stop hunt above. Got out a bit too early and look at that. It's played out. But the reasons I've got out for it were correct. I still think now the the the pound had some also had some data this week and it says here UK bonds rally after hawkish Bank of England member drops members drop vote for a hike. So pound extends its decline against the US dollar to 1% and guilt's lead gains across global bond market on dovish tilt. So there were two Bank of England members who are seen as hawkish and what they've done is they've removed their vote for a hike. So that is seen as dovish and the more of a closer step towards cutting rates. And so you started to see now the a change in the pound valuation and the pound is starting to sell off now. Do I think that the pound is an absolute sell? I think there are reasons to buy and sell the pound. There are talks in the short term that the Bank of England could cut rates in in May, but I don't think that is I think that's too soon. It could be June and but either way I think in the short term there could be a short term moves to the downside in terms of the way that the market may be pricing in more of a more cuts for the or sooner cuts for the Bank of England. Now there is also the fact that if data does support the Bank of England cutting later then this is going to look like actually a really nice buy. But I think if I'm looking for a buy trade it will have to be in its products maybe somewhere around here or maybe around a one, two, five, one, two, fours. But again this pair is a bit of a tricky pair simply because both central banks are looking to probably cut around the same time. But that also does mean that you are likely to see prices look to range or auction. So rather than trends, so I do think that there is an opportunity to buy the pound somewhere around these one, two, five round numbers and maybe just below it, maybe a bit of a stop hand below that level. But yeah, you can look for a buys or sells on this currency pair. Pound yen again with the shift in the pound dovishness you're starting to see now prices start to sell off. If you are looking to continue to be a buyer of the pound then you're looking at that. If you're looking for a move to try and sell the pound against the yen then you're looking for a pullback up into the this supply zone before looking at short trades. My preference would be to buy the yen now because again they are, they've started their hiking cycle and it's highly unlikely that they will just do a one and done. And of course the data does need to support that as well. If the data comes out and the data is not, you know, the data is not supporting rate hikes and the Bank of Japan do hold for longer then that would mean that the yen is likely to remain potentially on the weaker side until other banks do continue to cut because they even though they would be holding rates, right, you might have the Bank of Japan holding rates, if everyone else is cutting rates, yeah, then that is still a divergence that you want to trade and buy the central bank currency that is holding rates, right, because other central banks are actively looking to devalue their currency. So yeah, that's pretty much the logic behind it. The US dollar, Euro US dollar and you've got, again, prices setting off quite a wide zone of supply and our traders don't necessarily like to see that, but that's just what it is in terms of, you know, the trade in terms of how you trade it, where you trade it in here, what you can do is just break it down on a lower time frame and go into either look for major levels of on the daily support and resistance, right, there. It looks like a nice zone where you've had support and then support resistance in this area. So around the 109s, 109 round number, just above that would be nice for a potential sell. And then you can get a bit more detail by going into the lower time frames and looking for those types of levels as well. So you can say, right, and I want to trade around there, probably want to trade around there as well. But knowing that you've got ultimately the higher time frame supply zone on your site. So with that being said, again, the Euro, there was some data and some news from the ECB and ECB's Lagarde tells Eurozone leaders price slowed down to continue. So, you know, the easing in the Euro area inflation is expected to persist, thanks to the effectiveness of monetary policy, European Central Bank. President Christine Lagarde told Euro area leaders at a summit in Brussels, according to people familiar with the discussion. So Euro, for me, again, at the two, the guys in the private members group know that I've been, had more of a short bias on the on the Euro versus the dollar. And you can see that start to play out now. And it's playing out over the past couple of weeks. Now, if you do want to be a buyer on the Euro, maybe on some dollar weakness this week on data, this we have come down into a really, really nice technical level in terms of a demand zone with the confluence of some support and resistance. But if the data doesn't support the or continue to support the fact that the dollar to be by, then you're probably looking at, you know, moves down to maybe the bottom of this range, the 107s, I think is going to be a decent area. But also as well, that 107 does look like a nice technical area for the, for the Euro. And that's also a nice capture pain relief trade as well set up that we that we take. So that's very, very nice in terms of technicals on both sides. But from a fundamental perspective, I'm more looking towards buying the dollar and selling the Euro, a Euro yen, so the Euro yen this week. Again, this is more of a stoppunt trade. Prices went, you know, kind of blasted through the that supply zone, the daily supply zone, pretty took out a whole load of liquidity before hopefully heading to the downside. So right now from a daily supply zone, it's not the strongest supply in the world. But there is supply there. On an intraday, you probably will see it a lot better. But that's what you're looking for. If you're looking for any kind of short trades, if you're looking for a long trade, then you are the first area to look for some long trades to buy. The Euro is going to be down into this 162.3 area. And then you're looking at anywhere around this zone here to look for some buy trades. But with the Euro cutting rates in the Bank of Japan looking to high crates, then it doesn't really make sense to buy, in my opinion, but I guess the decision to trade in the direction is totally up to you. The viewer. So Euro pounds and Euro pound with the pound and the Bank of England being a bit more dovish, you've seen prices really kind of just sell off for the pound in terms of the Euro strengthen. I do think that the pounds should be more of the buy against the against the Euro. So I have a shorts now, or you're looking at a bit more pull back if you haven't got in and then looking for something like that. So I do like this in terms of a as a short, although I'm kind of cool on the idea of the actual pair. There is an opportunity if you do still believe that the pound is in a better position than the Euro. So pull back nice and a decent trade. If you're looking for long trades, then you're looking at this demand zone here for a long trade and buying the Euro against the pound. But let's see how the data plays out on each pair. Aussie dollar. Aussie dollar. I do think that the Australian dollar is going to be one of the stronger pairs for 2024. Although we've pulled back against the dollar, I do think if I'm going to buy anything against the dollar, it's going to be the Australian dollar. So I think any pullbacks into this demand zone or just below, I think are going to be very, very nice trades. The Australian dollar did get some really good news on unemployment this week. And so that has pushed the chances of a rate cut further into the future, which should strengthen the Australian dollar overall. And so let's see what happens with with that. And for me, I think any pullbacks buying opportunities on this currency pair, if you do want to be a buyer of the US dollar thing, you're looking for really a pullback up into this supply zone and then looking for a short trade like that. And finally, looking at gold and gold has made some higher highs. So we've got move higher pullback made a higher high. So now this starts to become a demand zone right here. So you can look for some long trades there. But that's if you believe that the the dollar is a sell or let's say, for example, data supports dollar sell inflation data comes in lower than gold should want to go higher. The danger with this, though, is that you've got some unfair auctions just below it. So ultimately, if you are looking to trade this this gap, then yeah, I think it's a bit more of a tricky one. I'd wait for prices to kind of prove that there is you know, demand before looking at entering into any new trade. So first area is right here at 21 sixties and down to the 21 40 sixties. And if that kind of breaks that zone breaks through, then I wouldn't trade anything until we start to see higher highs, higher lows or lower highs and lower lows and then for supply zones. But I think the trigger would have to be looking for some dollar some dollar data and news this week. So yeah, I'd see what happens. Yeah, core PC is coming out on what's that Friday. Yes. So maybe until Thursday start to position yourself if you want to look for long trades and hope that the PC data does come out lower. Anyways, guys, that's it for this week. Hope you enjoyed the analysis and again, just a quick reminder that the you can get the enjoying the discord group. I am opening on the third of April. In Roman opens on the in eight days, 16 hours from this recording of this video, of course. And I know there's been quite a few people who are interested. And so yeah, when you're when you're ready, you can email me and let me know and I'll let you know when enrollment opens. And so I look forward to working with you if you are interested. All right, guys, take care. Speak to you soon and all the best.