 have the three o'clock clock on a given Wednesday. I'm Jay Fiedel. This is Think Tech and more specifically there's energy in America and in in lieu of Lou Pugliorese. We have Emily Medina in Mexico City. She's going to tell us about things in Mexico. There are a lot of things happening in Mexico. Hi Emily. Hi Dave. I'm excited to be here today. So nice to see you. So let's talk about let's talk about the you know the headline news in Mexico today that is the earthquake in the south of Mexico. What happened? Well we experienced an earthquake in the southeast Mexico in Oaxaca. Their earthquake was been pretty intense. It was a 7.5 magnitude. Luckily there wasn't many fatalities. There was about six fatalities in total. And this was because the epicenter like I said was in Oaxaca which is not as densely populated as other areas of the country such as Mexico City which is very vulnerable to earthquakes and has a very dense population and typically sees a larger disaster when when earthquakes hit that part of the country. So it's fortunate that it wasn't as bad. I saw some video about the damage. There were a number of buildings that were wrecked fell into the street sort of thing. And I wonder if Mexico has the ability to respond and rebuild because you know you're under duress now. You have COVID. You have a lockdown in an attempt to reopen just like we do. And I wonder if the economy stands in the way of rebuilding the areas that were damaged. Well unfortunately Oaxaca is one of the poorest states in the country. There's a high percentage of indigenous population in the country and and this type of natural disaster is definitely and can have a toll on that state's economy. Particularly and there's very weak infrastructure in that part of the country and precisely because of the low economic growth that they've experienced over the past years. So this will definitely affect Oaxaca's recovery going forward. In the past when you've had natural disasters like this has the United States stepped up and provided assistance either in kind or in money? And fortunately the U.S. and Mexico tend to have a very strong coordination approach when a disaster hits either in the U.S. or in Mexico. So like for example like we saw in when Hurricane Katrina hit and Mexico was there to to help provide aid to the U.S. and send the military and recover. So right now Mexico we expect the same support coming from the U.S. and it's likely that we're going to see the type of response of a coordinated effort between the U.S. and Mexico. However given that you know it wasn't as huge as an impact and there's no lives at risk and so much as we've seen in other type of natural disasters. I think I'd prefer to be able to have a response and to have the necessary equipment and to respond to this. I wouldn't expect you know you're going to see a big a big assist from the United States. I mean after all we have a lot of money problems here. We've just spent trillions trillions I say you know trying to deal with you know the reopening and COVID mostly the reopening and just this morning Trump announced that he was going to spend 500 million dollars painting the wall black. He's still he's still building the wall. I find that remarkable. He's still building the wall with all of these dire circumstances around. He's still been in fact he's spending more money than before building the wall. How do people in Mexico feel about that? Well I mean there's been a constant Mexican people coming from the White House and that's definitely it's it's pretty unfortunate and given that we have a strong integration in our economy and in other aspects. So definitely that type of rhetoric coming from the White House this it has a purpose you know and the purpose is that it helps get votes. So I believe that you know as elections approach that rhetoric is going to start building up and what's particularly upsetting I feel for the Mexican people is their their own president's response. So and as you may already know Mexico and Amlo and Mexico's president is planning a visit to the White House on July 1st. So basically I mean this sends a message to the Mexican people which is basically that you know whatever you know Trump is saying about building a wall or you know Mexican immigrants or you know and those types of negative comments towards the Mexican people is basically sending the message that the Mexican president doesn't care and about these types of messages and it's going to anyways then go to the White House and be cordial and you know basically do whatever Trump wants him to do. Too bad I mean he's been known Lopez has been known not to be weak in the foreign policy foreign relations department and this isn't going to improve his reputation nor is it likely he's going to achieve anything but we'll see we'll see. I think a lot of foreign leaders have trouble making deals with Trump and having those deals stick at the end of the day it always dissolves somehow but let's let's go to let's go what's happening about about the economy. Well let's go to COVID first. You know it's like Mexico is a mirror image of the United States in so many ways. You're our cousin our neighbor you know as we go you go and as you go we go so I'm just wondering you know what what is the level of threat if you will of COVID in Mexico? Well so Mexico you know didn't have it as as quickly as the U.S. did so the U.S. started you know having a large number of cases early in the year I mean about in March I think it's or April was when you know you started to have an increased number of cases and you know where COVID was at its peak and so Mexico was still you know doing well and however you know we just yesterday we saw the largest number of cases and recorded in Mexico so that tells you that we still have a very long way to go in terms of the whole pandemic and you know and it hasn't been as bad here in Mexico as it has in the states I think and largely in part because we were able to to prepare for it a little bit more than than what the U.S. and had the chance to prepare and you know and and even in Europe you know they had it before so this gave us a little bit of a leapfrogging effect in terms of you know how we're going to manage this crisis and I think I mean from a bottom up approach it's been pretty effective different states are you know taking different measures in Mexico for example even in some in states they even went as far as banning alcohol in order to prevent social gatherings and what have you so definitely I mean this has helped this and in terms of limit the spread of COVID but right now we're so struggling and I think we haven't seen the worst of it yet. Yeah we had another show earlier today where somebody was going into that alcohol has a um a socializing effect alcohol makes people want to get together and talk to each other alcohol there's a social experience around the world and so if you if you have a lot of alcohol if you open the bars for example everybody's going to be having a conversation without a mask before you know it you know you have an upswing and I suppose the the government is smart uh to say wait hold up on the alcohol because there's a direct relationship. Yeah and results are really showing that you know so they ban alcohol then and the cases where we're going coming down then you know the government decided to start reopening the economy and cases rose again so right now they're going back to banning alcohol. Yeah what else are they doing you know they're requiring masks on the street are they requiring are they closing down gatherings and assemblages are they are they putting limits on churches for example on events on entertainment what what are they doing? Yes so they're requiring masks everybody and needs to be wearing their mask out in the street and in terms of social gathering I mean the government can't prohibit this but they're really enforcing I mean they're really communicating to people that they need to stay home and they need to maintain their distance with people in terms of you know in the in the workforce we are seeing that businesses are still having lockdown measures so that will take a little bit longer in terms of allowing workers to start coming to work however the private sector I think has been much better at enforcing these measures than the own government so I think that's been one of the issues I mean so when I said you know the banning of alcohol that's coming from a local level in terms of the state governments they're taking I think the right approach but it's been pretty different from the federal level approach which has been more laid back in terms of enforcing different measures you know we still have them so for example Pemex continues operations as normal we had you know people coming to work in from Pemex and and that caused several deaths even within Pemex as a result of not taking the measures seriously. So are people happy with the way the government both federal and state in Mexico have responded to COVID or do they feel that the government has done too much or too little? Well from the state level they feel like the government acted too soon so this had an impact on the economy at a local level the fact that you know even when you know cases were pretty low the government decided to close schools and take all the necessary containment measures and some people argue that it was too soon to do so and so that's from the local level and on the federal level I think people are pretty unhappy when with the way that the government has dealt with this situation given that you know and the government's not setting the example you know and the government's been having different tours around the country or how do you call them like different campaign trails or what have you where they go to different parts of the country to accelerate different projects for example the Tren Maya which is one of his pilot projects in the south of Mexico so the government went to the inauguration traveled by airplane and he applies commercial so this is also a concern in terms of setting the example because you know the the health official is asking people to stay home and to take the necessary measures and at the same time we got the government you know just flying around the country or actually he took a he went by by car now that I recall but still I mean he's on the road and same and as business as usual so this is definitely an anger around a little bit of people that's a risk it's a risk for sure tell me about tell me about your life Emily I mean how how's your life changed so you locked yourself up you're working at home what's it like yeah I've been working at home I'm taking it pretty seriously from home I don't even you know go to the store and I get all my groceries online which is pretty nice and it's pretty and easy to get everything you need from your home you know your soul is different and apps you know of food deliveries and and so you can get everything without you know having to step out of your house which is and without having to expose to the risk so it's been pretty and pretty convenient to be able to get those services from it sounds like a lot of people in Hawaii are living pretty much that way still now even though we're trying to reopen um what about the border how has the border been affected I know that trunk closed the border is it I mean what's the situation at the border right now can people travel across the border one way or the other or is it some kind of lockdown on the border well I believe there's been some exchanges between you know the different administrations in the US and Mexico on what approach they want to take in terms of you know restricting travel or allowing it and I know the US said that they did not want any unessential travel and to the US from Mexico I believe Mexico does not have a policy and you know is still a free border and you know everybody can come so that's definitely you know it's a different approach that they're taking and in terms of you know the COVID spread I don't know which country is riskier right now I know both of them are pretty bad with this COVID situation yeah what about uh you know we we had for a month and to some extent we still do have a month I mean a month of demonstrations black lives matter and all that and of course the word was it that it was it was in Europe that they were also having demonstrations there was in Asia and I wonder if you had that experience in Mexico did you have demonstrations that were sympathetic with the American demonstrations there was a riot from Guadalajara and so this you know the black lives matter movement kind of was viewed here it kind of caused people to react in terms of what our own policemen are doing to to the local people and there basically was one case which a person with the name of Giovanni which you know started becoming very known and very heard of and this case was sounding in all of Mexico so basically and people from Guadalajara who got very angry from this situation of you know this victim who suffered police brutality they went over to Mexico City and started you know actually I think they did some riots on the the US embassy so but it was pretty small I mean it wasn't a movement like it is in the US it was you know an independent case okay no no no violence no no violence no yeah no violent demonstrations yeah I mean it got pretty violent from what I saw in the news you know people were throwing things buildings and stuff interesting well let's go let's go to the economy of course we want to find out you mentioned what is it Pemex and the production of oil in Mexico which is important and so there have been discussions around the world with OPEC and the OPEC OPEC plus I think you call that OPEC organizations that make for collaborative agreements on how much oil a given country should produce so what has happened with Mexico vis-à-vis the United States yeah so you know Mexico used to be one of the largest producers in the world I mean it still has a lot of oil and it's still and pretty large in terms of it's you know petroleum and activity however you know Mexico switched the role from a producer to a consumer and right now what was discussed in this OPEC plus meeting during I believe it was around April was that they were you know discussing how they were gonna globally cut production to increase oil prices and what happened was that Mexico was required to cut about 350,000 barrels per day to comply with its own share because every country has a different share according to how much they're producing and what have you so Mexico and was not satisfied with this quota and they wanted to cut production only by 100,000 barrels instead of the 350,000 where I believe it was 400 and 400,000 barrels per day so what happened was that you know after some heated negotiations and I believe it was the secretary of energy who was at the meeting and you know discussing with the different OPEC members and you know they were negotiating how much they would cut and this you know delayed the meeting and it was pretty scandalous and then at the end you know all the U.S. said they would pick up the share and it was remaining in our requirements so Mexico can you repeat that Emily we didn't we didn't hear that very well can you can you can you repeat the upshot of that meeting so yeah so basically I mean the meetings lasted longer than expected because Mexico was still negotiating in terms of how much it wanted to cut it wasn't satisfied with the quotas that were established you know by the other OPEC members so what happened was that Mexico said we're only going to cut 100,000 barrels 100,000 barrels per day and the other 350,000 barrels per day then you know we're not gonna be cut so what happened was that basically Mexico and the U.S. coordinated you know a response and the U.S. decided to pick up the share that Mexico wasn't willing to cut with which was the 350,000 barrels per day so basically you know Mexico will send a very bad signal to the world in terms of it's willing as to coordinate with the international community. On the other hand 350,000 barrels a day for the U.S. is chicken feed isn't it? Yeah so that's why they were so willing to pick up on the slack I mean or the you know the remaining. Yeah tell me about the economy in general I mean certainly oil production is a big part of the economy in Mexico or it has been and how is the economy you know working I suppose you run a parallel with the United States you have COVID you lock everything down and then you take signals from various leaders including Trump okay we're back we've we've licked it we don't have COVID anymore that sort of message and then you try to restart the economy is that where you are and how is it going? Exactly that's exactly where we are and where the government is basically saying you know reopen the federal government you know is trying to say it's okay you know it's not a big deal and at the same time we are economic projections from the IMF and you know just yesterday they were announced at a contraction for this year of 10 percent so the the contraction this is the you know one of the the worst estimates that we've seen so far that you know ever since the COVID-19 started you know those projections have been just increasing in terms of the economic contraction that Mexico is about to face or is facing right now during this year so it's pretty unfortunate in terms of you know because even if the government is saying that everything's okay it's definitely not in terms of of the message it's sending and the the response that it's giving you know there's has been very little support for the private sector there's in Mexico unlike the US there hasn't been an economic stimulus to response to this crisis in that and it's really starting to hurt small businesses and you know we our unemployment rates are and are very high and as in the same case those today the US however there's no economic stimulus right now in place which is detrimental you know we you know we we forget that Mexico gets our television and if there's three trillion dollars spent in the US on economic stimulus everybody in Mexico knows that and then they look at their own government and say what happened to ours why can't our government people must have a certain disappointment am i right yes um yeah i mean people i mean unlike i mean well there's still still poverty in different parts of the US but here in Mexico it's particularly changing where you know there's people who are unable to get food because of the economic conditions so it's going to be important that the government you know recognizes the role it's playing in terms of you know attracting foreign investment to the country so in in the 30s uh you know the US had a serious depression which took 10 years to get out of and if i had to guess i would guess that Mexico likewise had a serious depression in the 30s where people yeah work are you are you worried about that now Emily is that a possibility now for Mexico yeah i am very worried about the situation in Mexico um you know the numbers don't look good in terms of her economic outlook and right now and the problem was the economic problem started even before COVID-19 you know we had in 2019 we also had an economic contraction a technical recession a technical recession and this was before COVID-19 so what we're seeing is that the policies that this government is proposing is not are not working in terms of providing economic growth for the country on the contrary they're you know scaring off foreign investment or even Mexican companies you know that we're thinking about investing in Mexico or right now holding those investments because of the situation and the situation is is rooted in the fact that you know the government wants to rescue Pemex the state uh is the state-owned oil company you know and and it wants to you know to undermine private and participation well we'll have to check back with you uh hope we can do that soon to see how Mexico was doing it's great to have it's great to have this discussion with you Emily to find out through your eyes how Mexico is doing we want to know and we only add that there are some people in this country really really care about Mexico so we need to talk about it thank you Emily. Emily Medina from e-princk at the policy research foundation and we look forward to our next discussion with you aloha stay safe