 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Feng What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire Dot com where today we are talking a crazy crazy day in the NBA in the betting implications of the injury To Kawhi Leonard and Chris Paul potentially me out for the Phoenix Suns We're bringing on coach Nick to break down his thoughts on both those situations in the current landscape of the NBA Playoffs, my name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Feng you can find his work over at the power rank dot com and Ed usually June is Just basketball and hockey this year. It is Euro 2020 It is the US Open coming up this week. I'm excited about NASCAR I'm probably the only one but like there's a lot of stuff going on and a lot of stuff to be excited about How you doing? I'm doing pretty good. You know Italy was up to nothing on Switzerland So I could actually break away and do this podcast today But you know Euro's been awesome and the quality of the soccer slash football is so high We've seen teams like Italy look fantastic You know Germany be France Excuse me France be Germany yesterday So a lot of a lot of good matches. I'm completely obsessed with it. It's been it's been a lot of fun and Yeah, look forward to more and this is the first year where we've had legal betting in Michigan So has that enhanced your your Euro viewing experience having that at your your disposal? Yeah, for sure. I actually haven't bet a game yet because I didn't really want to just trust my numbers So I was waiting for the the end of the the first set of group matches which happened yesterday And so now I have some sense of these teams I'll be talking about it in future episodes of covering the spread But do you feel pretty good about the way your numbers broke out for the first couple of games? I do I do Yeah, I mean I when I looked at it. I mean it was pretty close to the markets, which is always a pretty good sign You know and these markets are gonna be pretty sharp right with the with the win Lose draw probabilities. I think Rob was saying pinnacle was taking 125k on these these types of bets So, you know, it's pretty pretty sharp market. So maybe looking at some team totals Instead as another way to bet this and then, you know, maybe some futures I'm actually about I was thinking about talking about it today But I just didn't have enough time to completely get my thoughts together about it So but we have the term is going off for a couple more weeks. We got some time There's plenty of time there. There is plenty to discuss as well for today Well, some US open thoughts from you and covering the future. I'll talk some NASCAR as well It's gonna be a fun week, but we have talked about the downsides too with the Kauai Leonard injury and the CP3 news We'll bring on coach Nick to discuss that he does a lot of YouTube coaching videos at b-ball breakdown on Twitter as well a link to his YouTube page is in the description up on number fire and They're fascinating videos to watch because like Ed for me I've never played basketball in my life as people probably can tell if they watch the YouTube version of the show I'm not a basketball dude. I'm six foot. I'm not doing anything there I played at like the local gym in college and the 11 year old kids beat me and I retired So I don't understand the X's and O's coach Nick does and yeah I love watching videos of people who understand a topic more deeply than I will ever be able to comprehend I think that's that's exciting me to have him on here for today Yeah, absolutely And I mean these these are like the core components of what go into points of possession and and other things that we talk about so You know, I mean the easy way to kind of handicap these things are having power ratings and stuff like that And that's all well and good, but I think you have to under understand that this aspect of the game as well Really to you know before make any bets because it's it's important to what happens We always want to find an edge whatever that edge may be and we'll talk to coach Nick about his thoughts on Kawhi CP3 and more coming up here in just a bit but first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast, we will not be here next week our first off week in I think since I got married last July So our first off week next week will not have a show then back the week after that though to talk more Euro will talk some MBA NHL catch up on all that so make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear make sure you leave us a rating and review as well Before we talk about the NBA playoffs ahead We got to go back to last week as well and go back through our discussion with a keen profit talking about The Suns and the Nuggets and also a little bit of thoughts on the Bucks and the Nets covering the past Last week here on covering the spread We had a keen profit on to talk about the second round of the NBA playoffs You can find him on Twitter at ski profit and we talked to him before game two between the Nuggets and the Suns He was on Denver plus five and a half in that game He also wanted the full game total over 223.5 and the first half over 113 but the Suns were just Suffocating that entire game especially on defense. They kept the first half under at 94 points The full game total was closer went under by two and a half there and the Suns won by 25 So a crazy effort across the board by them They went on to sweep that series obviously game four a bit, you know interesting But they did it sweep the series so the Suns exceeding expectations throughout that Nuggets series Kim is on the Nets money line at plus 140 against the Bucks in game three They were down by 19 the first quarter But they actually had a lead late in that fourth quarter could hit a shot in the final minutes The Bucks did hit shots and they won 86 to 83 So check out a Keem over on the locker room app. He has the profit pick show over there We appreciate him coming on here last week as well and Ed you were talking about Euro 2020 Sounds like some things may have gotten clarified for you after that though Yeah, no, I kind of owe John Shearer an apology because uh, I didn't realize some things so we talked about how England was the the second most favorite team behind France and England is never ever the second best team in Europe. They're Since I've been following the sport. They're just not But they they do have all three group Group stage matches at home at Wembley The semi both semifinal matches and the final are at Wembley as well That changes the odds and probably enough that you know The point for goals that I'm using for for home field advantage starts to come into play and and England all of a sudden is Based almost on the same part as your France's and Belgium's in in my numbers So so that actually does make sense when you look at the games. I also goofed in terms I talked about how uh, France was favored uh against Germany in the first match, but then Germany was favored to win the group um That only makes sense because that actually makes sense because Germany has all three matches at home in Munich um, so they're gonna have uh, I will say one thing So my numbers had a slight edge for Germany in that match and that's the way the markets did move Before the game closed. So uh, so that was good. So Germany ended up being a slight favorite. They did not win that game Um, they they lost one nothing to France But they will have they will have the home advantage in these these last two games And that's why the markets had Germany as a favorite instead of France to win the group Which obviously changed because that that can't be that can't be the case anymore since France beat them But you know, it was a great match between like two of the best teams in the world. The only goal was an own goal by a german defender who You know, the kind of the most remarkable thing If you if you've heard of any soccer player, you probably heard of killing it in bapé Who's the the french winger who was a big part of their world cup winning team back in 2018 There was one play where a ball got kicked deep into the german territory and he went he He had maybe a five yard The german defender who also had the own goal had a five yard head start to get into the ball And in bapé beat him there by like three yards. It was ridiculous. I've never seen At that level you would never think there would be a speed discrepancy between players that much So in bapé gets the ball and then uh, the german defender, I mean it makes a very good tackle That yeah, arguably was a penalty in the box, but it wasn't called so um But you know, I mean germany france portugal. These are these are some of the best teams in the world So if you're gonna if you're gonna find time this weekend to watch euro Watch watch those teams. Uh, the the germany portugal game is new and eastern on saturday That'll be a good one You're talking about the speed discrepancies the other time you can see it is when I play my friend james on fifa Because i'm so bad He let me lets me play as spain and he'll be like japan or like the la galaxy or something because That's how big the gap is in our play so I can have speed and there are big speed discrepancies But there is literally nothing else good happening so if you want to see it watch bapé play or watch me play james in fifa and Still lose despite the advantage that he allows me to have we're gonna talk about the NBA playoffs here in just one Second but first more euro it's always exciting when a player scores a goal in the euros But this year it is twice as exciting Because fandall is paying out double the winnings when you bet on a player to score during a euro 2020 game Just sign up for fandall sportsbook and pick your goal scorer For a shot at two times the payout in a tournament featuring some of the best goal Scores in the in the world you'll have plenty of options to choose from but no matter who you pick Fandall will double your payout up to 250 dollars and you'll have your bonus in less than 72 hours There is no better place to bet euro 2020 than on fandall sportsbook must be 21 plus in colorado iowa indiana michigan new jersey pennsylvania tennessee virginia or west virginia new users only First real money wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is a non-withdrawable site credit that expires in seven days max bonus $250 restrictions apply see full terms at sportsbook dot fandall dot com gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler in colorado call 1805 224 700 in iowa 1 800 bets off in indiana 109 with it in michigan for confidential help call 1802 707 117 in tennessee call the red line 1 888 9 9 7 8 9 or in west virginia visit 1 800 gambler dot net Let's talk some basketball now with coach nick of b-ball breakdown get his thoughts on the kawaii Leonard injury the cp3 uncertainty and more with where the mba playoffs currently stand Covering the present Let's bring coach nick into covering the spread to talk some basketball And what a day it is to talk basketball with everything going on I appreciate you taking time out of your day to talk to us How has today been for you with 16,000 different breaking news notifications coming across our phones in the past couple of hours I mean, I expect nothing less. It's somebody tweeted out. Uh, somebody woke up at the mba and chose violence That's basically what this was. I was busy editing all morning until now. So I only was vaguely aware what's going on But it's it's devastating news at least of the clippers Oh for sure Absolutely and just like so much news to digest because I mean obviously we don't know The the timetable for chris paul. So that one's tougher to diagnose but with kawaii Leonard and It's just so so much star power has been taken away From these mba playoffs. Obviously, there's no lebron. No ad anymore But now you take some of the lingering guys You still have kevin durant who was nuts last night. You still have yannis obviously, but That's a lot of key players lose and just as a basketball fan That's be a bummer to have so many of these these big names Not available whether it be due to losses or due to injuries It really is it's and you know People want to point to these short offseason in between before this year started You know, not every team had that. I mean, certainly the eight teams that didn't go to the bubble had sons of time off But I suppose yeah, we're going to include the top stars. They all got to the bubble They all played, you know with someone in the playoffs. So I I would hope it wasn't related but it's hard to ignore that fact and it really is causing A lot of these series to be, you know, lopsided to some degree. I mean, listen, I love the suns I love what they're doing. They're exciting. They play really well But quite honestly, you know with ad still being healthy It felt like the Lakers are going to win that series and now the suns might get all the way the finals from that Yeah, it's uh, it's been crazy and we're talking about the implications of that and also talk about the koala Leonard injury Talk about bucks nets and a lot coming up later on but because you are mostly in the x's and o's side of things I want to talk to you about betting infiltrating your sphere and obviously with the legalization of sports betting kind of Spreading throughout the u.s. You're probably seeing a lot more of it Whether it be on your youtube chats or on twitter or anything like that And you probably see a lot of things that might irk you. I don't know if irk you is the right word to phrase that But like you probably see things that are like, okay You're overlooking this so when you see betting discourse occurring whether it be on youtube or anywhere you're at What are the things you think that we as bettors are overlooking when we're talking about these games? Each and every night Well, you know since I started this channel What I become aware of is that there are guys who want to bet on games who like to watch what I'm offering Because it gives them an edge or they think it gives them an edge So, uh, you know, I tangentially kind of you know, observe what's going on and what the ideas are You know across daily fantasy or just even just regular betting You know, it seems like to answer that question. I suppose I sort of just figure out what do I bring that? I think maybe gives them that edge Because everybody knows Who's injured and who's not what they're other on the second of a back to back all that stuff Which by the way For like that ends up being as important as any X's and O's right? Especially like in the course of a season and I love the fact that you guys have all that data at your disposal And then there are certain like lineup stuff now the lineup data I'm always going through too is really important as far as the coaching side And I think that when you when you experience certain coaches for instance who don't seem to focus on Lineup data enough perhaps and you get these weird lineups you get these weird, you know people like, you know, listen Uh Bootenholzer shot his shot last night and threw in a guy who you know Really hadn't played the whole year and he's now playing second quarter minutes and um, gosh I can't remember his name now because it was so obscure to me I'll I'll tell you in a second if like my mind's blank But nonetheless, you know that that's that's kind of interesting at the very least so at the very least I do think that there's a lot of sort of um When you understand the way the teams play defense and I'll a lot of times try and break that stuff down That to me I think gives you some insight especially when you're going up against a team that has a specific offensive skill So like the bucks are a good example where they continually leave Three-point shooters open and they've done that for years And they've gotten away with it having a very high defensive rating for those years except for This year when all of a sudden, you know those open shots, they're finally hitting them It was a little strange to me why they weren't hitting them before But those are the two things when you realize okay that the top shooting team is going to go up against them We know they're going to get a lot of threes They're not going to miss them the playoffs And so that's going to be a recipe for disaster for them and you know short of kairi getting hurt Which is another thing we can discuss if you want to blame me honest or not, but um, you know This series would have been would be over quicker quicker than not in the net's favor had kairi stayed healthy Yeah, for sure. Um, I mean the randomness of three-pointers is definitely something that us analytics folks have been Talking about for a while you don't expect it to persist for so long like it has from a walkie Uh, but that certainly seems like a factor in that series. I think I mean durant went off last night I don't know how many of his shots was he just going off from three Oh, well, he was you know, he was going off from everywhere and you know, basically they played brook lopez off the floor But then they put brook lopez back in the game It was very strange that he did that that said I don't know who they're supposed to put on him I mean, here's the thing. I I study the actual individual Possessions because I want to know it's not good enough for me to see what you know, durant's the field goal percentages What are they doing? Why is that working and what can they do to stop that? And so, you know, they they they're very reluctant to have middleton on him Even though he's the only guy that's anywhere near the size they need now yannis is the other guy But he has been terrible when he guards, uh, kady. And so they know not to put him on there So that's at least they recognize that But he was doing it from all over the floor and it's such a high percentage At some point in the middle of all that he hit like a what 11 shots in a row or something You have to have anybody else shoot it by hooker by crook I don't care what you do to get the ball to not let him catch it and not let him have it Um, and if you know, there's a guy who's stubborn who doesn't want to change the game plan And it seems like boonholzer is like that because he keeps, you know, uh having him being guarded by pj tucker Then, um, you know, that would probably give you some really interesting insights into maybe you want to bet on how many points Durant's gonna get I just happened to have predicted 50 points You know, I was before the game yesterday and he missed the goshdarn free throw at the end That would have given him exactly 50 and made me look a lot better. But still it was it was all right there for you Well, you're missing by one is uh, it's uh, Certainly certainly fine. Uh, however you look at it So let's get into some of the news. I mean one of the first ones was Chris paul is out quote unquote indefinitely with covid 19 Sons are still, um, you know, plus 500 in the finals. Uh, what do you see with the sons? And and and the issues with paul now? Um, you know, we need more information obviously because if he's uh, I think jaylon Jaylon rose said that he was vaccinated So if we take him for that his word then that shouldn't be a very long Quarantine or whatever protocol they're going to put him through And the way this leaker the clippers jazz series is going he probably would be ready by the time that starts So that shouldn't affect anything if he's not ready, obviously That's a big problem And I sons fans got so upset at me when I was Questioning the after game three the leaker series how they got that second seed because they didn't look like a second seeded team Through three games and you know what through three and a half games They didn't look that way either and then ad goes down So uh, but what it does tell you is that obviously chris paul is the linchpin of that of that game of that team They need him to be As close as that he can be to a hundred percent the way he just You know, he destroyed down the stretch in the fourth quarter or the uh in that fourth game Uh, just hitting those mid range shots over and over again off the pick and roll Without him, uh, they are they they're the odds have to be I mean, are you saying the odds are plus 500 without him? No, that's that's where they stand right now With the information that we have So I think that based on the way that they sit right now I think the sports books are treating this the the sons as if paul will be good to go That's kind of my read on it at least Yeah, so I wouldn't put too much stock in in him missing any games due to due to the cobin Uh, and by the way if he well, by the way, unless he got cobin And if he got it after getting vaccinated then he is the most uh unlucky You know, he's the the cooler of all coolers and do not bring him with you to vegas Yeah, absolutely So, uh, we're gonna talk more about the sons in a second year or two But first we're gonna decide who they're gonna face and that changed potentially on wednesday too because kawaii Leonard Apparently has an acl injury. It's not been said if it's a tear or what the extent of it is But it sounds like it's going to take him out likely for this series here versus the jazz the jazz Seven-point favorites in this game against the clippers for tonight So let's talk about this kawaii injury How does it alter your view of this game tonight? But also the series as a whole between the jazz and the clippers, right? Well, you know, it's funny because in my memory of looking about it in the middle of game four as it was pretty much a blowout I was thinking gosh, you know the first two games are blowouts and the next two games are blowouts Have we ever really had a series like that? But then when I went back and actually thought about it game one was not a blowout and neither was game two So the jazz really had you know, uh, they had a grip on those games But it wasn't like it was as overwhelming as what the clippers were doing And I mean one look at the numbers and it's like pretty clear that it's kawaii was driving a lot of that But you know, I pretty sure we recognized that play when he did tear the acl and then that that's it He's done. He's not playing the rest of the playoffs. There's no way you could you know come back from that Even though he seemed like he did play after he heard it So now you got to rely on paul george who I thought was magnificent down the stretch without kawaii at the end of that game So that's still something they can put their hat on because he was great Now we don't know if he can be great in a game five or a game six, right? We have to find that out I love paul george. I've known him since he got in the league Incredible progression for him and how he's improved to the point where he is now But there are legitimate questions about whether he can handle that pressure as the man And you know so far in game four. Yeah, there's no question. If you ask tai lu he'd be like we're great We're ready to go We'll be able to you know cover that with probably spot starting. I bet you canard might get some more run I was advocating for him in the first couple games before they put him in and then I'm sorry In the playoff series before that with the mavericks and they weren't playing him and he finally got in Um, you know, so he would probably get some of those minutes. I'm trying to think of who else Who else has slotted in and that behind him for kawaii's minutes? Yeah, so it sounds like I mean, you know the the jazz have kind of been two three-ish point favorites at At home and now they're a seven-point favorite It sounds like you have enough faith and and chris paul that that might be a lot of points to to move that spread Oh, wait, do we go back to chris paul? Okay. No way that quiet letter. I think sorry. Sorry quiet. Oh, okay Um, so do I have enough faith in paul george? Yeah. Yeah Well, jeez. I don't know Five is in utah, right? Yeah. Yeah, so that's tough and you know the jazz are good I'm really by the way, I just want to say as a coach. I'm so impressed by quinn snider Whenever they show him talk On the bench and whenever they've never you've seen him in the past like after in postgame You know press conferences. He's there's just something about the way he talks and explains and there's no question that he'll be able to have Tremendous adjustments and in-game adjustments to help them win those games that they could figure it out But again, I'm still not sold in the jazz as a team Overall rudy still has interesting issues with me and I don't feel like the clippers have fully exploited him all the way and We'll find out if they flew and those guys have figured something else out where they could get him Attack a little bit more although he hasn't been as big of a factor in my mind as like he would be in a regular season game So maybe they're okay with him having this sort of, you know being what he's doing They're winning by double digits and that's okay. So Um, I don't know man. This is such a difficult thing You have to imagine losing a starter like kawai is going to hurt them And and without much time to prepare you have to be able to say that a home team game five They're gonna win that now on top of that What are the odds the odds of a game of 2-2 winning the game five is 80 90% of winning the whole series Yeah, it's a lot A lot and so that's hard for the yeah, it's hard for a team to win two in a row when one of them's on the road Right. So that kind of answers the question there. I mean, that's why this is the most important game You know of them of their series season for you know in the last couple years Although I guess you never mind. They had the tough ones last year. So, um, this is it This is this is the series in my mind And um, it's really unfortunate that that the Clippers are having to out of whole cloth like come up with a new game plan With missing someone like kawai kawai. It's not like, you know, uh, the seventh man goes down They can plug somebody else in this is this is a lot different Absolutely, and that's why we see this uh big spread for tonight So let's talk about what happens after that because obviously we're recording this wednesday not a lot of turnaround time there but we can look ahead and kind of Get some idea of what to expect for the suns in their next round whether it be against the Clippers or the jazz And that's kind of why we wanted you on here for today coaches because like you you understand the way teams mesh together So when you look ahead to a potential western conference finals Let's assume cp3 is good to go just because that's the way it sounds like things would be that way Let's assume kawai is not because again, that's probably the way things are trending How would these teams mesh for you based on the two potential matches we have awaiting next round the western conference? okay, so We want to look at we're thinking about the suns versus clippers and then the suns versus jazz. You want to do both those? Let's do it. All right. All right. Well, let's see here. So, um It's interesting because with paul george and kawai letter. It's certainly that they can match up nicely across the board With what they have, you know, the suns are an interesting team You know the the clippers have like the guys like patrick beverly who they can stick on cp3 and make life miserable for him there And you know on booker as well. That's where paul george I cannot wait to see that that would be a really fun matchup to finally see paul george You know, he's been not as good as he's been in the past on defense But there are moments and I would imagine that, you know, they're going to throw him on On devin booker, you know, the only question then would be is if you know if since kawai's not in there They're going to try and give them a break on defense a little bit And so now that's a question like who's it reggie's going to have to guard him a little bit So that that's really the key here And I do feel like the suns could have the advantage on that one because of how they're going to have to manage paul george So that's interesting. Uh, and now on the flip side Certainly mcaleb bridges is one of my favorites as far as defensively I think he can do a lot of stuff to handle, you know, paul george If that's who he's going to go against so I the clippers have have enough Defensively, I think to match up okay with those guys, but again It's just cool. You're missing, you know, you're taking the best guy off the team It says I don't know if they're going to have enough firepower at the end of the day They probably defensively could do enough to hang in there But I think they might ultimately, you know falter down the stretch without that guy Obviously paul george is going to have to be that guy and in the west circumference will finals we'll see And then on the flip side, you know, the jazz, you know, they haven't been able to really convince me And they still haven't obviously with where they are now And so, uh, you know, who like on the sun side of who guards not even mitchell, you know, uh, that's going to be if it's cp3 Okay, although he's long in the tooth He's not as effective defensively as he used to be but that's interesting and then they'll you know Devin booker's got a guy from a Royce O'Neill Royce O'Neill probably gets a lot of that the bulk of that He's he's good. He's not like great. He's not he doesn't like, you know, become elite as defensively. I don't think but he's solid But the way you see down the mitchell attacking I don't think that that's going to be a great matchup for them And that's going to put a lot more pressure on guys like eighton to stay out of foul trouble Um, so I don't know. I think they'd be really evenly matched And I think there would be a great west circumference finals But I don't know if you can really pick anybody definitively all those three teams to win Great coach, let's move on to the hawks and sixer series Where it's two two, they're going into game five tonight as we're recording this on wednesday You had a great breakdown of just really specific aspect of this game How the sixers are defending treyong and the pick and roll and it looked like, you know, treyong's had some success He had I think it was a down game and in game two, but they've been pretty good the last two games Um, I I suggest everyone go watch it because it's really interesting But what can we take from that? Like what do we expect these last three games? Like can the sixers defend this and and win this series as as the favorites that they they are Yeah, well, you know, and thanks for watching it. Um, you know, I had done I was preparing for the game before that by uh, for the first three games charting every single pick and roll at treyong ran And because they won the game in game one and they were awesome to pick and roll And then they lost the game in game two when the pick and roll was not nearly as effective And then they were awesome again in game three, but they sorry the hawks were and they lost the game anyway And so that was what I was like couldn't do the video after I kind of like the the narrative wasn't there It didn't make sense. I was like, uh, and I wait and I had to go to an event So I kind of it's fun my wheels, but I figured you know what after game four at least, you know The hawks won again so that and then they did very well on the pick and roll or well So that finally gave me impetus. I could use all that data. So basically this is what it comes down to The the sixers guarding the pick and roll when treyong is handling the ball And then on the flip side the hawks being able to do something with you know, mb down low He was just been eating all all day long and they can't seem to do much to stop him Even though capela is you know getting credit giving the pat in the back. He's trying But his numbers are are crazy good So, um, you know, I think I've detected a little bit of a notion that when they drop too far against treyong Those are the ones are when he gets the open floaters or then the lobs to capela Those are the ones that they really haven't been able to stop very well Uh, I have seen enough evidence to you know, not a perfect but but enough where when mb gets up high enough To dissuade him from taking that floater and then they can kind of get in there with with the tagging in the weak side To handle the the lob a little bit those are the moments when they can actually get a couple stops And that's takes a lot of effort, you know from mb to be able to do that because they're obviously the guy They're targeting him That's my favorite pastime in the playoffs by the way is looking at the pairings Who the because remember when you run a pick and roll you get to decide who you bring up to screen with right? Who's guarding the screening the uh, the the ball screener? And so that's been a fascinating thing and obviously mb that has the brunt of that Uh, but they do get a little bit, um, you know creative of who they screen with and where they screen And so as a result that's going to be the the puzzle that I believe the sixers are going to have to solve They're not going to be able to simply just rely on mb. They're going to have to do some stops on the defensive end With that they can roll and that's that's going to be the key So you were talking before about coaching and having faith in coaches Do you think that dock rivers is someone who will be able to diagnose that and decide? Okay This is our fix here and it's worthwhile to burn the energy on mb to do that Or do you think this will continue to be an advantage the hawks have for the remainder of the series? Uh, it's unclear to me Uh that dock has uh in-game adjustments You rate him that high on in-game adjustments You know, it doesn't ever seem to have been his thing You know, it's funny on twitter. They were like, oh another big lead blown by dock rivers And you know, it is true. They're littered that way with with you know, with blown leads across the board for years and years Um, so yeah, I think the Fed is a slight deficiency in in his abilities um, that he you know, it could very well be a um A generational thing like some some of those guys were like former players and you know older older than me They kind of like want to dig in and really stick to their guns and um, I don't know It seems like the coaches that are a little bit more flexible and and you know are willing to uh, you know Possession to possession try and alter some stuff like, you know Usually the coaching, you know fraternity would kind of, you know tip their cap to those kind of coaches more Um, so I don't have a lot of faith. I just to answer that question that they'll adjust more But then again, you know, mb could go off. They might get some good production out of Simmons Which is another issue. I feel like it's a problem that pairing to me I don't think gets into the finals, but we'll see and um, and so yeah So they might be able to kind of overwhelm them like they have been and hold that lead But again, uh, if they allow that to happen The hawks get on a roll and they'll start scoring hitting threes and by the way, that's the biggest issue Right, it's the threes when they lost the game. It's because they didn't shoot well from three So well, so that's that's the real key there and that's again another part of the pick and roll where Once they start to collapse that and they kick out and they get wide open shots You know when they hit them the sixers are going to be in trouble. Yeah, for sure So coach, you've given us two coaches that you're not So enthused about their in-game adjustments, buddenholzer and rivers You know, maybe give us a coach that you are enthused about Who who can give these in-game adjustments and maybe give you an edge on a money line Great. Uh, okay. That's good. I'd rather be positive, I suppose And forgive me coach coach bud and coach. I mean, listen, there's a couple other ones who have you seen my videos I've been a little bit Scratching my head about but who are good. Who is good? I mean, you know, who's still in the game. I mean, let's see I would probably I would put quince nider in that list for sure They seem, you know, just use analytics as well and really study that stuff To inform them, which is important. That's why I like it. I love analytics So it's like 10 times people want to accuse me of either not listening to them or not liking them But I really feel like applied properly in the right instances. It really can help So I would put quince nider on there. I mean, yeah, who else is left If we're talking about just the playoff coaches, who are we talking about? I mean, Steve Nash's first year coach in Brooklyn. Yeah No, I wouldn't put him up there. Unfortunately, even though he's got like, you know, a lot of people behind him on the bench Um, I you know, I haven't felt like I felt great about those, you know Any kind of adjustments that they've been making they haven't had to make him by the way really until all of a sudden Now that they're hurt and at this point, what are you going to do? You know and by the way playing Kevin Durant 48 minutes I don't know about you, but I was scared watching that and seeing that he that was going to happen the last like six minutes He knew it wasn't going to come out. That's just that's just a recipe for you know They've already dealing with injuries. Uh, and then they played harden 44 minutes, whatever that was like that's just anyway So that's not an adjustment, but that's certainly something that really gave me pause and um, who else is left besides that? Let's see Monty I don't know. What are the what are the gambler people say about Monty's coaching? Anything I'm I'm not sure I'm not the right person to ask. All right, no worries. Uh Monty Williams, I don't know. So it's funny because Greg Popovich's tree is you know, Monty Williams is part of that And like he's the kind of guy who you know, listen He is the gold standard for coaching But I don't know I I feel like there are and by the way when you sign a head coaching contract You acknowledge and you accept the fact that you're going to get, you know, criticized by jerks like me all day long Um, but like, you know, like Popovich for instance, he won't follow up by a three Drives me absolutely insane and it's probably because he's just he's just dogmatic about it He didn't we didn't have to deal with that like before the three points shot became really big So he just he has a way he wants to do it. He maybe he feels like well if we can't stop him on defense We don't deserve to win. Maybe that's how he feels Um, and sometimes I feel like that permits some of the other coaches that have come out of his tree as well I mean Boylan might be a good example of that when he was in Chicago, which was a nightmare and Meanwhile, uh, so Monty is part of that but um, and I don't think he follows up by three either Which is another one of those just signs. It's like one of those flashing signs to me So, you know, he's okay, but and you know, so other than that, I don't know. I guess the answer I'm sorry. I'm so long-winded today, but uh, Quinn Snyder I think would be the guy if I had to pick anybody who's the in-game in-game adjustment, you know, uh, leader right now Well, there's a reason we had you on it's because we wanted to hear you talk This is great. This is perfect. This is exactly why you're here You talked about Kevin Durant in the 48 minutes on Tuesday night. James Harden went 46 didn't look Effective I think in that time. Uh Harden didn't so let's talk about game six because Durant Probably gonna be pretty gassed for Thursday Harden not fully healthy right now What do you expect to hear in game six based on what you saw on Tuesday night? Well, you know, and I would think that So here's the thing Durant only took 10 shots in the first half part of that was Tucker was actually doing okay like denying him But when you look at the quality of shots they got out of that They were all really good and the net's just missed, you know, I don't think it's going to happen again They're in hostile. Oh, no, they're yeah, wait. Where are they in game six? They're in Milwaukee So they're on in hostile territory, but um, you know, you have to imagine they're going to make a few of those I mean, you know, even like Joe Harris missed a layup on uh when they were they kind of got stuck to Durant He cut back door like that stuff and by the way, once you miss a couple of those That's when you get the 12 to 20 whatever leads those bigger leads which always disappear by the way So never be concerned about a big lead early in the first quarter But it does, you know, put you on the eight ball for a while. That said I did tweet this out earlier You know after with seven minutes left in the third quarter That was when they built their 16 point lead whatever the the bucks did from then on the 19 minutes left in the game, uh, they got scored like 23 points That's that's a severe blowout when you're doing more than a point a minute. Uh, I would scoring the other team So, um, I would expect more of the same I would expect Durant to be, you know, again more aggressive. The funny thing was in the very beginning Durant didn't look good I thought the whole team looked kind of rattled And um, meanwhile Hardin does have eight assists and he made a couple of passes that nobody else on the floor Would have been able to make So, uh, here's the thing that you can treat the hamstring. It held up amazingly I would imagine that the treatment they can do between now and then Will benefit him and he might be even a little bit better So maybe he'll hit a couple shots and then uh, then I don't know unless the the bucks can radically figure out how to deal with Durant attacking out of the pick and roll especially if it's if it's um, brook lopez I don't know if they're gonna get enough stops because yannis is you know, yannis's game is limited He doesn't necessarily play like an mvp Now it was great to see them go down low to him and let him say, you know Win the game for us in the fourth quarter on the post. That was great And he did score a couple times But they just follow him put him on the line. He'll he'll probably make one of two You know, and he looks shaky there even you know when the ones he makes Um, and then then that that's a real question market Whether that's going to get them a win in a must game must win situation in a game six even though they're home So, uh, I kind of feel okay about the nets, you know for for now I didn't feel very good before the game started, but uh after game five I feel like uh, they have a really legitimate shot at winning that game and closing out the series Yeah, sometimes with harden, you know, just just the fact that he was out there for 46 minutes Even if he wasn't playing well That fact is an endorsement of health for the future. So I think that is intriguing for sure as well We'll see. Yeah, we'll see for sure how things go in game six Coach nick just uploaded a video on kevin durant in game five So go check that out. There is a link to the youtube page over on the show notes up on numberfire.com That is coach nick make sure you give him a follow on twitter at bball breakdown coach We appreciate the time. Thank you so much. Enjoy the basketball tonight and the rest of the playoffs and Hopefully, we'll talk to you again soon. I'm in. Thanks so much covering the future Big thank you once again to coach nick for swinging by and breaking down his thoughts on the nba playoffs And eddy was talking about the jazz believing analytics. We both know keith goldner who Works for number fire and fan will you used to consult the jazz on analytics? So, uh, obviously That's very true. And it's good to hear that that is still there For the jazz and obviously paying off very well for them. They're plus 250 to end the nba finals right now Yeah, absolutely. I mean the jazz were the one seed in the west and uh, you know, they Right, is that right? Yeah, they got the one seed because phoenix was the two Um, and you know, the other thing about jazz is that, you know, coach queen snider is by far the most successful of the coach k Disciples, um, you know, I mean he What about chris collins? Come on, you know, he he led northwestern to like three wins this year How are we gonna snub chris collins? Come on. Is he still is he still coaching at northwestern? Don't talk to me about this No, I mean that was a serious question. Is he's still there, right? Yes It's a sore point. It's a sore spot Anyway, queen snider, uh, most successful, uh, coach k disciple, um, well didn't I had some issues at missouri Um, but he's really done well in the nba and that kind of gives me brings me back to that coach k is retiring after this year And instead of, you know, picking your most successful disciple as a coach in queen snider I don't know if queen snider would actually take the job because it sounds like You know, he's doing pretty well in the nba and some guys really want to coach in the nba But instead of, you know, getting Someone who has coached as a head coach in college basketball. They're promoting john shire a 34 year old who has never been a head coach Which I think is is a fascinating choice. Um, the odds of that working out are not very high in my mind So, uh, but that's what duke has decided to do because this man is so intelligent I'm curious if you had to pick you're offered the head coaching job in michigan and the philadelphia eagles What are you picking? And uh What me personally or wait who or you can pick ricer stanford too like you're offered these jobs Are you going college or nfl from a head coaching perspective? Well, I mean most people in football would say to take the nfl job Right, so that that's certainly I don't want to recruit man Like I I don't want to recruit. I give me the nfl job. Give me the pro job every day of the week So like if that was sniders dilemma, I would say if he were offered it, I would say he made the right choice Interesting. I don't want to deal with boosters recruiting. I I want no part of that. That sounds miserable But you have to deal with the gem that makes potentially horrible draft picks too, right? So it's true True So if you're a high, you know, if you're a college coach, at least you get you have more input into crafting your team. This is true Uh More input more headaches more time I'll take the I'll take the less input fewer headaches more time. That's my route That could get your butt fired though, you know Yeah, but if I get I guess like the the angle for college is you get the buyout like if I can get the um the the 200 or you know the 20 million dollar buyout to sit and do nothing that is kind of appealing But like I don't think I'd be good enough to get the buyout in my contract to begin with so It's uh, if you get those kinds of jobs, you're you're gonna get some buyout Yeah, as long as you hire a reasonable agent That's also money. I don't know man. It's a lot of headaches a lot of headaches here Yeah, I'm trying to minimize the headaches. So I hear you Uh, that would be where I would go either way big. Thank you to coach Nick for swinging by and talking about the NBA playoffs here for today Let's move into covering the future and talk about some more exciting stuff on the horizon here on the sports calendar The u.s. Open is this week. It's at torey pines south They were there earlier this year for the farmers insurance open At least three out of the four rounds were there But now they're back once again and ed you want to talk some golf as you are now the the golf guy You're on our podcast. What are you seeing here for torey pines south? That's still hilarious to even hear Reference in terms of golf, but yeah, I think it's kind of interesting how much the markets the golf markets are About what you've done lately. Uh, john rom's actually a better favorite fandal sports book If you haven't heard, uh, he tested positive for covid. Oh, is that two weeks ago? Yeah Yeah, I don't know if he played last week, but he did not he was not cleared until sunday to golf But he was cleared sunday. He's good to go for this week. Yeah, he's good to go for this week So so he's the favorite, uh, I think a lot of the models would probably have him as a favorite because he's, you know He is one of the favorites of Uh, golf analytics, uh, you know, as I think I've mentioned on the show, you know Rufus Peabody has always talked about how he's got more money on on john rom Um, I think he also tweeted that he lost, uh Six digits when rom wasn't able to win that tournament Yeah Because of the covid test that sucks man that that is a bad beat right there That's brutal. He had a six shot lead six shot lead so Brutal, so we talked about john rom We talked about zander schaafley as kind of the the numbers favorites Uh, but I think the one golfer that we haven't talked about is walking neiman So he's a 22 year old chilean that, uh, is another golfer that's shown up in some of brand new gadoo's numbers he's shown up in collin davies numbers as Uh, as a really good golfer a really good young golfer Um, and to me, it's interesting. I think with the pga he was maybe plus 2000 to win And then last week he didn't make a cut Which was the first cut he hadn't made in a year. I think from from what I've tracked and he's plus 7 000 uh to to win the us open uh this week and um, I wasn't able to get as accurate numbers as I usually get For this tournament, but that seemed like such a crazy shift in opinion on this golfer that that I had to I had to get some action in on that. So I ended up betting him top 20, uh over at draft kings for plus 225 Uh, that was a better price than I could find on fan duel I think he is a golfer that the numbers really like. Yes, he missed the cut last week, but uh, I don't think that Obscures what he's done over the last year and is a Probably very underrated golfer and um, you know, brandy good dual talked about that as well in his article this week He was one of the golfers that had a little bit of an edge in the outright markets Not much, but a little bit I pulled that up just to check it out when you were talking about it It's uh, he's at 1.5 the sims versus 1.4 implied. So there isn't value there, but I mean like it's 1.5 odds of happening So I think that the top 20 mark it probably the better route for you there Yeah, I mean you can you can try like top 10 too. I think it was plus 500 when I checked at fan duel Uh, you get a little bit more leeway with top 20 But this is uh, this is a golfer that's kind of you know, and he's I I think he he hasn't won any tournaments, but I think he's got two second place finishes within the last calendar year So a good young golfer and uh, wouldn't make too much that he that he missed the cut last week And the thing with Neiman too is I think that we've Kind of forgotten the improvements he made over the winter where he His big issue in the past was putting on non-bentgrass surfaces where he Just couldn't make a putt. He would joke about it. He was very aware of it Couldn't do it and he made a lot of improvements over the winter and cooled off a bit with his irons, but Long term walking Neiman is a tremendous iron player You expect that to show back up if we're trying to project out in the future Which is why it makes sense. You want to buy low on Neiman for right now I think that Neiman is really solid bet. Uh, he ranks Sixth in the field and distance gain the past 50 rounds. That's over a fantasy national Good numbers when you adjust your field strength So walking Neiman definitely someone who is a I I'd agree a viable betting option for this week at the us open I am also focusing on a non outright from my cover in the future Uh, the cup series is in Nashville this week for the first time It's a new track and it's a pretty unique one I can't if you will force me to list a comp track for this this one I can't there are no comps. Uh, it's 1.33 miles in length. That is Similar to Darlington, but Darlington is an egg. Uh, Nashville is a tri oval It's concrete like Bristol and Dover. It's flat like Phoenix and Richmond Basically, it's a melting pot of all these different tracks There's no good direct comp for this one and that can make it tough for betting I have baked in some extra uncertainty for this week as a result But the overall idea for me is to look at who has done the best in the 750 horsepower package Which is what they're running this weekend So looking at who has done well at the tracks listed like Bristol Dover Phoenix Richmond and kind of mesh them all together And once I do that Joey Logano Shocker looks like a clear value for me once again Specifically, I want to bet him uh to podium which is finish top three Which is plus 350 at fangirls sportsbook Logano actually leads my model in projected average running position for this race prior to practice in qualifying That does not account for upside. So if I'm looking at the most likely winner It's not Logano. Uh, he's behind Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. There, but he's been crazy consistent the 750 package So far this year, there have been six races on ovals using this package in those six races Logano has a win. He has three podium finishes That's a 50% rate in the implied odds of plus 350 or 22.2 Obviously, that's not you're not going to say. Oh, I expected to finish in the podium half the time going forward That'd be stupid, but I think it's encouraging that He's specifically run well on the flatter tracks. He finished second in phoenix. Uh, he was third in richmond richmond also Is a track that features heavier tire wear Which I would expect out of Nashville this week because it is concrete Bristol raced similarly to that because it was slick and it was on dirt And that's where legano won. So most of my betting this week for nashville will be reserved until after practice I don't show a ton of value in the outright market right now Like legano might be the only guy who actually shows value there Uh, but it's possible we'll have a better read on things once those practice sessions are done I want to hold off on betting until saturday for the most part But I think the value we are getting on legano right now at plus 350 to podium Is enough where I will actually make that one bet right now For legano to finish top 10 this week But ed it's kind of weird like this would be is as if you had a golf course where You didn't know what would happen. We know what tory pine south will do with nascar We don't only have any data. They've not been to this track ever in the cup series. They've not been here since 2011 It's kind of frightening to try to make bets. We have Key pieces of information just not available to us True, but maybe maybe that maybe that helps you with with your general knowledge of the sport, right? Right, and I think that was the case for the bristol race because sports books I thought were being overreactive to guys who'd run on dirt before I still built out my model regularly if I it had been like a regular bristol race and it performed really well So I'm okay making bets as a result of that given how things at bristol making assumptions building stuff out based on that and When I do that, it does favor legano for this week podium plus 350 Sign me up for that That is all that we have for covering the spread for this week once again No show next week because uh, we got some vacation baked in So no show next week back again the week after that with more thoughts on the nba euro 2020 and more Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Also, make sure you follow coach nick on twitter He is at b-ball breakdown There is a link to his youtube page up on the show notes up on number fire dot com Check out his stuff there his video on kevin durant in game five and also i'm sure of reactions to wednesday night's game on thursday Ed what is going on for you over at the power rank right now? Yeah, so uh My free email newsletter i'm trying to give uh actionable data-driven embedding advice Probably have something about euro by the end of the week. So check that out at the power rank dot com. Uh, also had, uh bud elliott on the football analytics show So hopefully that'll be out by the end of this week as well He not only bets but also knows a lot about college football and also is pretty good with analytics, too So, uh, that was a fun episode. Um, it's fun to get the college football juices flowing again Not just that but also bud with his southern accent tremendous content all across the board So, uh, that sounds standing. I'll check that out for sure Find that by searching for the football analytics show follow ed on twitter at the power rank I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you with your bets whether it be on Euro 2020 mba playoffs NASCAR us open whatever it may be Enjoy the sports weekend. We'll talk to you once again in two weeks This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network You