 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi folks, down 139 on this Wednesday the 3rd of January. Yesterday we made an all-time high, an all-time high. I mean, this is really interesting. What a divergence we had. Let me just get my little arrow right here, there it is. So we go to the high of 37,790 yesterday, all-time high. And then we pull back. All-time high in January, maybe this is the only high it makes all week. Who knows? But it made an all-time high. This stands Leg C in the monthly chart to say that no matter what happens, you cannot get a peak C unless all of January, all of February has a lower high. Because if this is January's candle and you've gone to a Leg C extension, even that was by 10, 12, 15 points, it means that you have to wait for all of January to complete. But then you've got the next bar and that means that the whole bar of February cannot make a new high or whatever the January high is so that you can call it a peak C. Then March goes to a Leg D, imagine, right? And that means you've got to wait until April before you can get a peak D. So this is still very bullish. And the weekly chart is extended to Leg, I really think it's an A and not an F. So so far that's all very bullish. Short term, there's something completely different that's going on. Down makes an all-time high yesterday of 37,790. But the QQQ, it made as high four days ago on, that was December the 28th, was it? Yeah, 28th, that means I just typed that in. December the 28th at 412, 412.93. And yet it is 12 points lower at 400.26. Down 2.32, the nine-period roofing average is still over the 14, but it's turning down. The mankis are already turned down sharply. The stochastic, which is way up in the 95% area, actually it was even high 97%, has now pulled back under 80%. Now, the big thing is that I've discussed very frequently over the years in my webinars for subscribers to my opening call. If you're subscribed, you can get all these webinars. And I discuss that what's the counterpoint of a stochastic that's holding in the 95, 97% area? Is that it holds? Because as long as it's holding there, that's very positive. But what will happen if it starts to invert? What happens if it starts to reverse? Well, it goes under 80%, but very often it goes quite a bit under 80%. As you can see right here, it went down to the 46% level in late December and then started to rally. That nine-period roofing average never once got even close to turning pink, staying green, which is very positive. But now look at the steepness of this decline. This is the QQQ. This is something to monitor. And I have no choice but to consider the tiny little doji candle of the last week of December in the weekly chart of the QQQ is an alternate count. F slash B, I'll get rid of one of them when the time comes. But right now it's saying leg B in the monthly chart could become a peak B if all of January doesn't go about 412.92. That's a big ask. But I'm just saying that's what would happen to make it a peak B. In the meantime, on the very short term, look at the S&P. The S&P is pulling back quite sharp. It's down 26 points at 4,716, made a recovery high. The all-time high is 48, 18.62 back in January 2020. In fact, it's probably exactly two years ago to the day. And now what we're looking at maybe one day short. So most importantly, what we're looking at is this is a shorter term pullback in the in the daily chart, the weekly chart. It doesn't even look like an eye blink here. It just, we've had to move from 4103 to 4793. And now we're at 4716. That's just nothing. But look at that tiny doji candle from last week. That to me looks like it should be a pullback to the 46, 39 period moving average. And then 45, 70 is the 40 period moving average. To get that green in the weekly chart, first of all to get the green in the dating chart to turn pink. Oh, you'd probably have to see this at 46.92 to 46.88. And in the weekly chart, you'd have to see it even much, much lower. You'd have to see it at 45, 40. I just, I don't see that right now, but I do see an extremely overboard situation, which is the reason why. And I'll go through this. I discussed it yesterday with Tom. I did an interview that the Dow gave me the same, partly the same signal as it gave August the 1st. When the on balance volume gave that a fantastic reversal on the exact day August the 1st, where we actually went short the Dow. And that was in the Dow itself, 35,679 was the high. We went short just maybe just a little bit lower than that on that particular day. And we went short the Dow on Friday. So it was a day early, but still only 12 points or so 25 points away from the high. And more importantly, it's really just the start of something is to say, hey, all my indicators say this is oversold over, sorry, overbought. And that is the indicators that I consider really important. But that's the casting, which is probably the most important is at 93%. I'll take it a moment now to discuss this. So I don't want to go through too much. I'll talk about it over the week. But you can see that in the Dow, that doji candle right there saw that the on balance volume went to a high and in volume. It's only fractionally higher than the high of yesterday in on balance volume. So this is really the start. But what happened here? And I said to subscribers, are we here? Is this very much the same thing? Here's the nine over the 14. And look how long it took the nine over the 14 after that on balance volume reversal in the in the Dow. To the day. How long it took seven or eight days before sessions? I should say not days of the sessions before it turned pink. So is that going to happen here? I have no idea. I'll put a question mark. So what I'm looking at here is we've done our homework. We've got our stops in place and we'll see what happens. What's happening next? And all I can say is that it might take until the end of the week. Before the green nine-speed moving average even gets close. But the most important thing that I had was this particular pattern that I drew in the rectangle pattern that says you can make an arch formation going slightly above the left side high. That's that peak F right there. And then you got to watch it carefully because if it arches over in this particular instance any close below twenty seven thousand two hundred in the next couple of days and we're still way above that rate of three seven thousand four ninety would say oh be careful on the short term. As I said the weekly charts are also looking real good. We'll be back. That was on two twenty seven. That's a result thirty one. 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So Jeff A. and the Tiger YouTube want to know was that wasn't in 2017, we also made just slightly higher high just like we did right now in the doubt. Yeah, that was a little different. I don't really want to go into that now. Other than to say, if you recall in 2007, what happened was we had that sell off very sharp sell off right there. That was at the high of 1555 in July of 2007. And then everyone said, oh, this is it. This is it. And I said, you know, my some of my technicals are still very strong. Some things not right here. I think we're going to get in the weekly chart a pattern that I call the double hump. You know, there are camels that have not one hump, but two humps. There's a particular I always make a little kind of a joke about the whatever technique I used to have. I used to call the double tops this exact double top a drop bucket because you know how a backhoe digs the sand up lifts it up and then just opens it up and push. Everything falls out. That's like the same thing here. So what happened in the weekly chart is I said, I think we're going to get a rally. I don't know if it'll go to new highs, but it might be that pattern. I call the double hump that goes to like an E slash C or a G slash D something like that. It has these two little hiccups to the upside fools everyone and then it just tumbles. And that's exactly what we got. So yeah, you're you're correct. But the time it wasn't just a two day thing that was this is this is over a period of weeks if we talk about the same thing. All right. So with that said, let me just go through a couple of things that I think are really important right now. Dow is the Dow is down to 32. This is still nothing. I mean, we've had 232 updates at price wise. So many times just the Dow is plus 50 and then push all of a sudden it goes up 250 or 300 or 400. And a couple of very sharp down days, but not that many. This is different. This is what I said last week. I was exactly at this time Wednesday. So I was saying, you know what, I think what we're looking at is the chance that Friday is actually a day that closes below the highs. And then we come into the market on Monday night. The January the first with the futures open and they suddenly turned down and that Tuesday morning. We have a very weak session and it is it comes. Everybody says, what is it? Who would have thought of that? We thought, you know, we gave you new highs, new highs, new highs. And it comes as an absolute surprise. And what that would mean is that you get a sharp pullback and then those people that wanted to short didn't have a chance. Trying to look for the opportunity for the market to alleviate that selling pressure have a balance and then they can short. They've hardly had a chance to even do that. So this to me says that the three aspects I was looking at was one. There was a chance of a surprise sell-off, which is why we went short on Friday, short the Dow, short the one that I thought would be the weakest, which is the semiconductors. We got the SOXS three times along a short position, small but aggressive. We've taken a little bit off. You know, the fact that it's now up way over 20% in just two sessions is just we've already taken a little bit. So you just have to, you just got to do money management with this. You can't really tell. But that was number one was that there would be a surprise sell-off. Not a surprise to us because we were prepared for it, but a surprise for many people. That's number one. Number two is the duration might be, it might be severe and short-lived because of the surprise factor. Therefore, that nine-period moving average, I'm showing you the S&P right now, might not even get a chance to turn pink before there's a decent balance. And then that's the next one that you got to watch for the next decline after that if there is one. And the third thing is, it's going to be rotational. Wow, I did not believe it could be as rotational as it was yesterday. You had the Dow make an all-time high and then give back a little bit. And even today, it's just a little bit big deal, 240 points, just nothing. But what we did see was the QQQ, the index 100, look at this QQQ, three not four, three Qs, turned down. And one of the things I was looking at here, look at this. I can't look at that because that is there. Look at that tiny doji, two doji candles, very kind of doji-ish candles after such a massive move going from the 40,400s to the 17,000, 70,000s. And yet you get the end of the run. It's these tiny little candles. And look what we were going to. And I said, there's a chance that this week we can get this kind of very, I have no choice. I'm going to have to put this in. This is an E, F, this is an F slash B right here. That's an E slash A, that's an F slash B. I'm going to watch this very closely. Why? Because let's go back to the Qs. Whoops. Let's go back to the Qs right here. Because the volatility index, and I'll get to that in a moment, is really important to monitor at this stage. And what I said was, I was a little concerned that the volatility index, yes, the VIX index, VIX and XS, had such a big move yesterday when we were almost at all-time highs in the Dow, but certainly not all-time highs after two or three days in the Qs or the S&P. I don't have the new stock exchange anymore, but I'm sure the same thing with the NYSE. And that was important that we actually pulled back, and by the end of the day, the VIX index went to the lows of the day, right about 1305 or so, after getting to the 14s, and it pulled back. To me, that was really, really important, and it was important for three reasons. Number one is, I do not like the volatility index to expand tremendously right off the top. To me, that's just, that's more hysteria. Number two is, the VIX index can do it, but I love what happened yesterday. We were close towards the lows and said, oh, never mind, never mind. Now, today is the follow-through. To me, that was the most important thing, both in the market being weak, the day is young. Anything can happen by the end of the day, but we've had some quite intense selling pressure. We've had a nice comeback in Microsoft and a couple of the other, the Magnificent 7 that really took a tumble yesterday, especially in the Nvidia. Let's see if Nvidia is trading right now. Come back a little bit. No, it's still down 7, or 6.8 at 474. Look at that double top, and I said, this is going to be one of the most unusual patterns I've ever seen in a chart goes to an all-time high. In the daily chart, 50266 was the high in Nvidia way back in the 24th of August. Let me just remember that 502.66. But then it goes to 505.48. There's no other way I could count that. That is a peak B. And then it goes to a higher, it goes to 504.33. It doesn't take out that left side high. And now it's got a peak C1, potential C1, which acts like a D right there, and a potential C2 right there. And that takes the place of all the others. So it would be so unusual to fail that a peak B at an all-time high in the daily chart always happened so rarely. I could probably, if I even remember it, I'd be able to count it on one hand. So let's just watch this very closely. Because this is just a high-level consolidation in Nvidia. What's the big deal? 505 is the all-time high. It's trading at 474 right now. The most recent though is in the 450 area. It's just in the sideways range. So the three things I'm looking at in the VIX is, where does it close the day to day? I need to see, can it hold the highs as the Dow closes? 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Also had these two tiny little gogies at its most recent recovery high in the 205s, it's trading at 196 right now. So the daily charts just say, hey, this is the kind of action you look at at turns. Now, the difficult thing at this particular stage is, what do you do when you are looking at this, but you're tempted, based on your looking at, say, the E-mini, you're tempted to try to play the long side. So what I've done, and I've actually been way, way better at this for quite a while now. I used to still like to trade the counter trends, but I'm trying to stick as much as I can to the major trend. We have a couple of people in the den, John's one in particular, who really looks at trends and he tries to stay with the direction of the trend for his major, the major core positions, and then he'll trade around it. So this is something I did for my CD, introducing the Chapel Wave methodology CD book that is that kind of out of print. But I'm just figuring out how I can ever make this back again into something that's a viable entity. But if in the way the web works, if I had to post anything right now, I'd lose copyright, it'll just go out there, it'll be gone. So I didn't really want to do that, I didn't spend my life trying to develop all these techniques so that I could just throw it away. It's something that I need to find to a certain degree. So look, you see the gray line, you see these gray bars going up? Well, you see this arrow, this red line and the arrow down? So you've got to identify the trend and then trade with the trend. And one of the things I like to say is if the tide is coming in, you can throw a piece of driftwood into the water and no matter what happens, that driftwood keeps on being pushed against the sand or the beach or whatever it is. If the tide is going out and you throw your piece of driftwood in, it just keeps going out, it just keeps, that's the tide. If you identify the tide, yes, within that you can get ripsaws, you can get riptides, you can get tsunamis, you can get all sorts of things. But basically what you want to do is to trade the trend. Why? Because if you are long and you are early, you are wrong, but the tide will save you. If you are wrong and you're going against the tide, well I know this out of personal experience, I've been a really fine sprinter, but a most horrible swimmer, even though I grew up in the water and I used to surf and stuff like that, I mean body surf, not the real thing, just these tiny waves. Lousy swimmer. Three times I can just remember offhand that I almost drowned. I mean really close to drowning. One, I was talking to a friend and my toes couldn't reach the bottom of the water and I was trying to paddle to talk with him. And I was too embarrassed to say to him, Brian, can you just hold me a little bit because I think I'm about to drown. And thank goodness as I was desperate, I was about to say that somehow or other the tide must have pushed me in a little bit deeper and I got towards the beach. So I managed to get my feet on the ground. So yeah, so the tide to me is most important. So wait, this is the wrong way. Look, if you're shorting all the way down, you can be really good. Sorry, if you're buying all the way down, you can be really good because you can get these little tiny waves to the upside. But the major tide is this. Doesn't that look correct? The tide is going up and your price is going up. The MACD is going up, the stochastic is going up and on the way down, you can short because the tide is going to save you. So I wanted to get that out of the way because I think that's right now that's really important to me. Why? I don't want to be too quick to do any covering. I think taking little bits off to make profits and garner some well-deserved reward. Yeah, but the tide seems to me that we've changed on the day, not the weekly yet, but the daily tide is changing. The nine-period moving average needs to cross negative and it hasn't done that to get a confirmation that the tide could go in fact even further to the downside. We haven't got that yet. Now let me do the same thing with gold. Remember I spoke about this. I said sideways action. Yes, it's pretty good when you think about what the dollar has done though. Actually, gold should have been way up in the 2170s. So this move at 20.43 is just saying, ah, it's struggling. And if you look at silver, that was the clue to me to say the silver was the one that was really acting against your dreaded H pattern, lowercase H. There it is. Fails at a peak B. We don't know if it's failed yet, but the tide seems to be turning to the downside. And the weekly chart is now underneath the chevron wave inside track, the propellant zone. And only that, you've got the nine-period moving average back to pink negative and the monthly chart. So that silver, if you look at high grade copper, if you're looking at high grade copper, let me get there, high grade copper. Yep, pulling back after that peak D. We're always looking at peak Ds in the chevron wave methodology. That's where you can. You don't have to be. That's where you can get pretty deep slides. And we're getting that in the high grade copper. Let's look at crude oil. Crude oil is up 2.27 at 7266. So I spent quite a bit of time going through the charts of ExxonMobil, CVX, and RIG. Let's go to RIG. And it tells me that even here, you remember I spoke about this as, as we were going into the end of last week, I said there could be a rotational correction. And we're going to see which stocks in the sieve stay above the netting or which fall right through the cracks. And that's going to be important. So RIG and some of the offshore drilling, oil and gas, they're not doing as well. So the reason why I looked at the big multinational oil companies is they got a dividend. Well, you don't want to be buying dividend stocks when the capital is going to be just wiped off the face of the earth. Look at this ExxonMobil. If you were buying, where a lot of people say to me, ah, Exxon is going to the moon. It was up at 120, 119. I said, you know, I don't think so. I think it's stuck in a range. And it could actually start to make lower lows and lower highs. Well, if you bought at 115 and now you're at 103, that's 10. That's a 10% risk to your big capital. So who cares about your dividend if that's the case? Dividend means nothing. But wait a minute. We've got Verizon. Look at that. We're moving Verizon. This is this breakout from yesterday's high to today's candle in leg B and then leg C. Now legs C in the weekly chart. This is the first time that these stocks, which also give dividends telephone. Look at this. Look at that move. So it goes to P, F right there, F. And then it goes to A. That's an A because there's your starting point right there. That's an A. That's an A right there. So that's a B. And now it's leg C in the daily. And the leg F, maybe it's an alternate count because this could be a chapter inside right there. Instant restart. Look at that. Right there. That's E. And this could be F slash B. I'm very intrigued. Look at the horrible action in AT&T from when it was at 30. And it gets cut in half. It goes down to the 14-13 area. And here it is at 17. So this is what I'm talking about. The rotation says there are areas. Hey, Lily had a question in the den about Lily. She was in the farm. Yep. Lily's come alive again. It was fantastic. A sharp pullback. And now I'll do that when we get back. That was on 206. S&P's down 35. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. 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Market Insights comes with a 30-day money back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights firsthand. TFNN Educating Investors. Biotech Today. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. So, in the Chapway methodology, the Chapway Instant Restart is just a phenomenal technique that I discovered, of course, trial and error, a very expensive way to discover. Years ago, decades ago, and I just, it amazes me why it still works in this day and age. I don't know why, but what I see within three bars after a peak D, a new recovery high, now I've learned, and I've emphasized it here in the den for all our tigers, that if you get to a G-C, it happens so often that you can, in fact, get a D after that, we just saw that in the Dow. The Dow did exactly that thing. So the monthly chart, and I can't believe how many monthly charts have been doing the same thing over the last year, probably a year and a half. But this is an instant restart in Eli Lilly, right here. That means I have no choice but to consider this as a G-C. And as long as the technicals, which are absolutely fantastic in the monthly chart, continue to hold like this, it should go to a D. And then you've got to be careful. That means it should go over 629.97, the high of October of 2023. That's the way I'm looking at it. And if you look at the rectangle, you see why a rectangle pattern is so important. Look, we've been in the rectangle. We've gone up to the top, back again. Hell's walking the 9-period moving average and the 14-period moving average in the weekly chart. The technicals are still very weak, but that 9 is way strong above the 14. And that, to me, is very important. And that says, yes. That's where you can anticipate. Now, in the Chamber of Commerce, I'll just do this because the question was asked. So you had a peak E right there. You pull back, then you would peak A, peak B, pull back, but held that low that was at about 548. And here it is. So this becomes, every single peak from this low right here gets notated. That's your obligation in the Chapman methodology right there. It's the only obligation. Easy. So look at this. That's an A, that's a B. This is an A until it goes above that B. So that's an A. This is an A. This is an A. This lower one here is an A. I just want to put all those A's. It looks so crazy, right? That's an A. That's an A and that's a B. But then it goes even lower. That's an A and that's another B. And finally you've got yourself a C right there. That C is underneath that previous B. But that's the one that's because this is your starting point. Every peak is notated. So yeah, you're finding it at leg C in the daily chart. And this is a gray A. That's a gray A. This is now a B. And we'll see if it goes above that it starts an E right there. So yes, this is very strong. Eli Lilly looking very good. And that's my suspicion that the stocks that have had really good earnings have a real special. I mean Eli Lilly has all these different drugs and the approvals. Everything's working to their benefit and it shows up on the chart, right? And that is really important. So the answer is how about Lilly if time allows. Yep, time allowed because it was really important to look at that just as I want to look at the other areas. Let's just see if the XLU, which is the XLU is the S&P utility spider fund went to a DEFG right there above the 200 period moving average. And then kaplop EFG and that gets a down arrow. And then it's kind of stalled. And then we can charge at a peak B. Yeah, so this is holding OK because it's utilities. It has a relationship to the rates going a little higher. Oh, I never even did that. So let's just go to the TLT. Am I typing the right place? Yes, I am. The TLT made a peak G. G stash. See, this looks to me like it's going to become just a G. And add a doji candle, a silent doji after the high was made. Another doji yesterday, even another doji today. TLT is down 1.06 and look at the TNX.X. That is the tenure in this leg A right here, gray A, because I don't have any confirmation this is going to be going. I don't know yet how high it's going to go, but this is an A and it's at $39.95 and $40.89. This is a 200-period moving average. I'd call that a potential target. But look at this. It has the dollar, DXY. So you've got your yields going up. You've got your dollar going up. The dollar is up at 102.54. That's where I said I drew this in. I said, yes, your left side, right side price time match. Look what happened. It went to the exact day of this midpoint, the plum line from October. This was October the 3rd, 107.35. Then it makes a cup formation. And I said one of the techniques I used is to use the bottom of the cup for my left side, right side. If it looks visual because it doesn't look mathematical, it looks visual. And then this is my inside wedge target support line right there. And it went right to it on five days before five trading sessions ago. And that was the 28th, I think it was. Yep, the 28th, it hit 100.62. And yeah, we had 102.54. It was two points higher for the dollar. Two points like this to the upside after all the downside action. This is kind of important. And that's another reason why I think there's some kind of selling going on. So that was the dollar. The TLT is a little different. TLT, I keep forgetting to do this. I always did it on the TBT. And then I forgot all about the midpoint. There's the TBT. That's the inversion of the, that is the Lehman 20th short, Lehman 20th Treasury Bond Fund. Look at that. It went right to that base of support. And now it's running off the January inside wedge. I forgot to make it red. Dash pink. That's really what I like to do. Dashed pink. There it is. So this is the balance, but it's a pretty decent balance of 3123 up 62 cents. Yeah. So all of those things are coming together to say, just be kind of careful here. Now, another thing that was really important, you know, Pave. I've spoken about this for so long. This is the global X U.S. infrastructure and development ETF. It went to a peak F with a doji cattle on the train. I didn't believe it was the 28th. I think it was the 28th. And there's a little question mark because I'm about to put it down. I haven't got it yet, but look at that sharp move. And you can see Alcoa. We had Alcoa and I said, we're going to raise the stop. I'm not messing around. I, I want to take a profit when you've got gains while they there. So we got out of it. We, we were in a 33.50. Took a tatter for 3445. No, about almost a 3% gain. And then we're all out yesterday, 33.80 for a fractional gain on the overall. And now look where it is. It's at 3111. Look at the speed that a peak D can turn around at. And I had also said, I don't like this. A very quick peak A, P, C, D in a, in especially in a weekly chart with one or two bars in between. And then a doji candle. That just says, be careful. There could be quite a sharp pullback. I want to buy Alcoa again, but I don't want to do it just yet. I want to wait. And this rotation says, watch Caterpillar. What is Caterpillar doing? Whoa. I didn't even update it. Caterpillar went to a peak F, often instant restart, F, G, C, that definitely looks like a G. Put a question mark there to see what we're going to do over the next two days. Very sharp. We've done nine at 283. And a peak B, E slash B in the weekly charts, E slash B. And a new F, in the monthly chart. Even Caterpillar is pulling back by sharp. So infrastructure is coming. I'll be right back. Dow is down almost 300 points. We've down 76. That's about to happen. Tiger's Day questions. You can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tigers Day Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. 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I suspect that there are a lot of people that never thought going into the beginning of the year just as before we even got into the beginning of the year that the markets have started to decline. So that says to me you've got speed to the downside. And you remember the chart we were looking at? I wonder if I can just get it back here. This is it. Yes. Remember, this is not what you want to be doing. The tide is down. That's why for those people doing intraday trading and all, take your profits as soon as you can if you're going against the tide because the tide is very strong right now. And it's the surprise tide. It means that there's room for the tide to continue at this point. Even if there's a sudden lake rounding to the upside, some serious damage has been done in a very short time. So with that said, I'm going to hand you over to Steve Rose and all the great programming, check-out mode, as I say, we do have two shorts in the newsletter. We've started to raise cash and the semiconductor short is doing very nicely.