 The following is a presentation of TFNN, The Power Trading Hour with your host David White. Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour. And we've got a day, don't we? A little up, a little down. But this morning, what do we have? I think we've had a route. I think we had somebody that had a problem in the market and I think they just took them out to the woodshed and just beat them unmercifully as they forced liquidation on them. There wasn't a lot on Friday to tell us we were going to do this. But I think when we look in a couple of days, we're going to find out that someone, just as we were saying last week, starting to see margins pulled on some of these big hedge funds, I think we just saw one or maybe more than one end up getting cashed out at a discount. Always makes me think of when, in The Good Fellows, when he's standing in court and he comes out and breaks the third fourth wall, what is it? Fourth wall, third wall? He breaks a wall, comes out and starts talking to the viewers in the movie. He says, your enemies never come to you and yell and scream at you. They always come to you when you're weakest and they come to you with smiles. It's not like in the movies where they threaten everybody and then they come and kill them. They just all smile at each other and come back and do it later. That's kind of what it is on Wall Street, except I have a feeling that the mafia has a higher standard of morals and scruples probably than the people on Wall Street because all it matters to them is the dollar. Maybe not everybody, but I think they all know they're swimming with sharks. But I think by the end of the day, we're going to find out, not the end of the day, but I think by the end of the week, we're going to hear about somebody taking it on the chin because this generally the kind of market move where you don't have a great deal of people short where they can just drive a market unmercifully. I was out buying stuff this morning. I didn't believe it. Buying stuff up until previous to the show. I do think there are some very nice patterns developing, but that's it. Bought something in the semi space. Like I said, I wouldn't want to be in the equities. I bought the actually the calls for the 21st. Bought some other stuff that I think is starting to work out. But it may just be a little early. I was thinking that if we were going to have kind of pushed down like this, it'd probably be on Wednesday for Delta Neutral Day. We really didn't get that. But my guess is that options are that we probably have seen the lows through the 21st. But we shall see. Anyway, yeah, it was kind of a scary day earlier. But for the most part, what I've seen is that they got everybody to just toss their cookies up on what had been kind of light volume going into Friday. And just nobody short. My guess is that a bunch of people did short today, though. And we're going to probably see a little bit of a bounce at least into Wednesday. Do I think this is the end of a two-way market for the rest of the year? No. As I said last week and in my newsletter, I think this is going to be a stock-picking year. This is not going to be one of these things where you just sit back, grab an index or an ETF. And then that's it. You're probably going to way underperform what most people do picking stocks. So I'm pretty pumped. We have a market that's starting to act like it has for the last 200 years. Not one that is mostly driven by the Fed as they start to pull back. I was very interested to see that I think we had some Fed juice come in this morning on the TLT. And that was, you know, he got down to 141.36. And even the bond auctions and other stuff like that going on seemed to firm up rather quickly, which makes me think the Fed was probably maybe at the margins out playing around today. Give me a call. This would be a great day. 877-927-6648. You can email me at PATH. That's P-A-T-H at tfnn.com. And what else? I think that's it. Bought a few things today. Think what I'm going to be okay on it. Trying to limit my exposure by buying calls, except in stuff that I think has some really good long-term benefit, which I got one today for the tech insider. And, you know, by the end of the day, will we just erased what happened? I don't think so. But I think we're going to get a probably maybe an 80% bounce out of this. And then everybody's going to come back to shorting once again. But they'll probably be shorting a little early. We'll probably see some kind of drive. And I think that if you are expecting the big downturn in this market, what we had today was just an early warning. But that's it. 877-927-6648. Looking for emails. And you can do that now. And what else do we have? Did I go through everything? My best indicators pretty much show that we got a really big push. TLT is 142. We talked about that. So I think it's just time to start looking at charts. Where are my charts at? And we'll start seeing what kind of damage if any is in. But a lot of this stuff looks to me like just washed everybody out. First of all, I wanted to take a look at Tesla. Look at that. It's still not good. But pretty interesting to see that for the most part it held 1,000 today. For the people that are involved in that. I think they think that's going to be a win. I think this is a long-term sell. And of course those guys are nuttiered in fruit cakes. So they'll come back and throw. If they've got a mortgage to the house, they will. At one point there won't be any money left to go after it by those folks. And we'll see the big guys come out and start selling it. I think we've seen a little bit of that. But my guess is we've got another month or so for Tesla before it takes the big slide. As I said, $40 stock trading at 1,000. We'll see you back in a minute. David White's Trading Newsletter, The Path of Lease Resistance, is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. Visit tfnn.com today and subscribe to David White's Ultimate Trading Newsletter for $119 a month. And try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Take the Path of Lease Resistance at TFNN Educating Investors. What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? That's right. Information. Having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time. The TAS Profile Scanner is the premier market profile-based scanner. Powered by its acclaimed TAS proprietary algorithms, this feature-rich scanner instantly filters over 2,500-plus global financial markets, such as stocks, ETFs, commodities, futures, and forex. This powerful suite of tools leverages instant trade filtering and strategy formulation to show you emerging trades before they happen. For a limited time, you can save $100 off your first month by using promo code UPGRADE and you still get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Level the playing field with the TAS Profile Scanner, which you can find under the Services tab at tfnn.com. Sign up today. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. We return. I'm a little bit of history. Get back to the market already in progress. Over most of TFNN. On this day in 2006, seven months after announcing, the Macintosh computers will transition from the Power PC from Motorola to Intel. The first Apple computers to ship with Intel processors are released. The Intel-based iMac and MacBook Pro models will soon be followed by the rest of Apple's Macintosh line in 2006. The importance of this transition cannot be overlooked. Well, I overlooked it because I'd never bought one. Through virtual machine software, Apple's later introduced boot camp technology. People would run Windows software directly on their Macs. At the same time, speed as Windows-based computer effectively removed a huge roadblock many people had of owning a Macintosh that they wouldn't be able to go back to Windows. Even if it was more of a psychological security blanket and Mr. Linus for many. And of course, this is really the death of Motorola's processor division. They had a superior processor for many years, but mostly because Intel had the business. They could spend a lot more in development. And it eventually ran out of gas with the 68,068.030 series of processors in the Power PC, which is the successor for that. But always had a better architecture, but it didn't really matter. A lot of times, just like Sony and Panasonic back with the VCRs, you can have a better product and still lose. Because you have one critical flaw. The flaw for Motorola was not having Windows PCs on it. But I do digress. Let's go back to our charts already in progress. If I can find the thing. Where is it? There we are right there. Okay. Back at support. We've been looking at this for a while. Mostly on these gaps that we filled today. This big gap on Microsoft. Back up here. Okay. There we go. On the 27th was 52 million shares. Pretty good sign out here. 39 million shares two days ago. Friday 32 million shares. Today you had about 26 so far. So pretty good test of this gap from Microsoft on the 27th. And is it over? I don't know. I think you have a lot of people who are going to be nervous for a little while. But you know what? Everything Microsoft has really done has not been. They haven't done anything massively wrong. Now maybe they're going to get ready to. But as long as they continue to be one of the best if not the best managed. Companies in technology or big cap tech. I have a feeling that everything is pretty good with them. Now it is the market a little bit overpriced probably. But when you got from 345 down to 310 ish as we are now doesn't look at all that bad. Okay. What else do we have? Apple as we go through the usual suspects. See what we have here. For Apple 107 million shares back on December 20. Right now you got 67 million shares. You didn't quite go through that low which I would have liked to seen. But I got to figure that everybody is out there. The downside for Apple which I think it makes it a little weaker than the rest. Is it did have a lot of volume coming down or more volume than it had in the last leg up. But we did talk about also a fairly long term cell signal up the top. 153 million shares back on December 13th to just 100 million shares on January 4th. Is it are people going to give up on this easily? The answer is no. But I have a feeling that a lot of big guys out there probably looking at selling Apple and looking for a faster horse this year. A lot of these stocks will outperform for two or three years. And then they go back to the mean. And I think Apple may be one of those that goes back to the mean. Other stocks do we have? Yeah. Okay. Okay. Got that. Got that. Okay. Okay. We looked at Tesla. William Sonoma. WSM. I was looking to short this one back at 200. I was a little early but got out before anything really changed. I was pretty sure it was headed back to these gaps. And it made it back there today. Actually, there's a double gap. And we were talking about gaps in the three gap play last week. If I was talking about anything else in my theories on gap for I think it was Nick last week. Hopefully he's listening and he'll email and let me know. One of the other theories on gaps is one gap is okay. Two gaps are amazing. And how many times and one of the reasons why I wrote the art of timing the trade charts the way I did. And the way it displays this and why I'm having a hard time going to any other kind of chart module is just being able to do everything. In fact, the guy that wrote the chart module, this program actually is one of his examples of just how far you can take it. But the double gap areas here are absolutely amazing about getting retested. You're down here with 1.25 million shares. Now that is compared to the gap higher with 6 million shares going back to March 18th of last year. Just about everything is the last year now, isn't it? So anyway, somebody in the den talking about buying something always reminds me of what Jesse Livermore says. That's no stock is too low for you to sell it and no stock is too high for you to not buy it. It's always always rang in my mind, although I'm not a big fan of chasing stocks. What else do we have? We've looked at Apple. Let's take a look at Netflix in FLX. 877-927-6648. Email me at path at tfnn.com. Well, you almost got there. Energy is a little less. This is kind of where we were talking about coming back to 500. I think it still has the ability to get there. They have a lot of things going on, but maybe that's setting up a very trading range above this. I think you still want it to get back around 500. Be back in a minute. You having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex Predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. 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We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com. And back to the theme of the day, which is retesting previous lows out here on lighter volume. If you are a bear, this does not mean the end is nigh. Generally when you come off highs, even if you come off with a lot of volume, you're going to come down and you're going to retest a low. You're going to do it on lighter volume, you're going to bounce. And if you're going to get real bearish, you're going to build up some steam to go blow out the lows. So I'm not a Pollyanna bull here, but at the same time, I don't see any reason why we probably don't have a few weeks of probably higher prices. And they may stumble up a bit, but you don't get too fixed on one side or the other. This is going to be a two-way market, I suspect all year. On the average for the index is probably lower, but there will be some really generally, especially in a market pulling back, some of the biggest wins are in the only stocks going higher because it becomes a very crowded trade. So don't discount being long in a horrible market the right stock. But that's going to be a stock that everybody pretty much knows already. 877-927-6648, we're looking at Google. Two and a half million shares back on October 4th, 1.4 million shares so far today. We're back into the trading range. As I said, even if you come down with some energy, generally that first time, maybe even a second time, you're not going to bust through. It takes a while. It is a big ship and a sentiment does not turn on a dime generally at highs. Like I said, though, in fact, if we hear a little bit more about some funds blowing up or something getting taken out to the woodshed today, and these guys are kind of living the real life version of trading places, it would be interesting. Okay, you came down to the gap on Nvidia. This was a big thrust higher, a sign of strength as the Wycoff guys would call it, and I do too. Up on 115 million shares, Nvidia tested that today with 43 million shares so far. So not a bad day, it's hanging out here at this gap. We've got a little bit of damage, so I'm not expecting the mentality on these stocks to come back in literally a day. But I do think that we'll probably do well into the 21st now for options expiration. Now, on the opposite side of that is AMD. It came down with just slightly more volume than it came up from the December 14th low. It also had 61 million shares so far today compared to the 51 million shares on December 14th. So generally what that tells me is Nvidia much better positioned than AMD right now. AMD should have to bounce and come back and test with lighter volume before I decide to go chase it. Now, this is the most shorted big cap stock in the market, so don't be surprised to see some short squeezes in this thing. But generally you had a fairly decent volume, but if you're longing the same and you're thinking about getting out, well, I think you're probably going to get a bounce. But I want to wait until the same bounces a bit, comes back down on lighter volume, and then we're probably going to see the real short squeeze in this. Things still continue to be fairly good. Let's look at the Intel, which continues to do fairly well for the tech stocks. Again, also fairly heavily shorted. I'm not a big fan of this long term. Maybe they've turned the corner. Maybe they haven't, but I think other stocks are doing much, or other companies are doing much better. It just may be that Intel's been beaten so low that there isn't much. You're up on a down day, which is also a good thing. The downside is you had a previous high at 55 bucks with 91 million shares. You tried it with 60 million shares on the fifth. Today you're trying it with 27 million shares. There's just not a lot of juice to drive it probably more than about 56 or 57 anytime soon. Bob in the Den says CRM has gone positive on the day. This also challenging a gap that goes back to May 24th with 5.3 million shares. You had about the same volume as you pierced that today. Two, of course it's closing back above that gap. You would have liked to seen lighter volume in that, but you didn't get it. Question from Ronald on the SMH's. I continue to think this is a story of two cities, a rich man, poor man, depending on which side you're on. You have to dislike that you had a lot of volume into this low today. 5 million shares going back to December 6th, December 20th, all about 5 million shares. You get another 5 million shares today, which would suggest that you're in a trading range here. What you really dislike is just the immense amount of energy off the highs out here. Could you get a bounce back to 300? I think you could. But again, rich man, poor man, bigger man, thief. You've got a bunch of...what am I doing? Rich man, poor man, big man, thief. Anyway, you've got maybe a bounce to 300 in this. But there's a lot of stocks that are in the SMH's that are still not doing well. Again, I'd be very picky about which ones I'm in. I would avoid those with the most exposure to Taiwan. If you had something in Vietnam or you had semiconductors that were in South Korea, the problem is they're just the South Korean stocks are so hard to trade. They've got a lot of problems, not in the companies, but trading. As we said, Samsung did very good in its earnings last week, or at least its announcement. But yeah, I think if you're going to be in any of those Taiwanese semi-stocks, buy the calls. It's cheap insurance today. TLT. John brings up TLT. Let's take a look at that. Again, really you've got more volume than you would like to see. But you know what? You actually did test a gap. This is a gap from the 12th of December with almost 18 million shares. Now you got it with about nine. So I thought maybe it would just, the way it had been trading, it may just go through and blow through these levels to 139. I think it's still going to 139 and 136. But I think we had a little bit of Fed help out here today. The little shovel of sand beneath the keel. The TLT, so it may hold up for a little while. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? 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Well, eh, certainly there was a giant sucking sound. Anyway, we looked at AMD, we looked at the usual suspects out here. Let's take a look at the IBB. They're talking about biotech and pharma and the DIN. We'll come back and see what we had. We did get through the 142 lows, which are March 5th of last year and May 11th of last year. The top volume up there was 7.7 million shares. It doesn't look very bad out here in comparison, about 2 million shares on the IBB. So as we said, some of these actually are not looking so bad. But you need a real close above 142-ish on this. You're at 141 now, so keep an eye about what's going on out here in the market. The IBB looks like it's got a fairly large pattern out here. What else did we get? And old friend that we haven't talked about for forever. Cody for Sam. I don't know why he'd be. Maybe it's Samantha. Maybe that's short for it. Going back and testing the December 3rd low at 7 million shares. You got 7 million shares already and not really much of a bounce. So no, I'm not a big fan. Of course there's a retail... What is it? Cosmetics. I was going to say War Paint. But Cosmetics. But certainly in that. Question about the UNG. Well, this is all about whatever the weather is for the last few days. And of course, pretty brutal weather being forecast for the next couple of weeks with very lows. So yeah, you got everything you want. When we talk about that pattern that I look for, which is then, you know, you get a couple of days above, a couple of days below the next move back. You could have bought it anywhere around that 1275 level. It's 1376 now. You got a lot of gaps to fill above. But that also means you got a lot of people who are probably willing to sell it. Hopefully you get a little bit of a pullback. Maybe 13 and a quarter or something. But yeah, I think you can get back up to 16 on it. Looks fairly good out here. But that's really just a bounce in the downtrend. We get some more warmer weather. That'll be another issue. Generally, March is when this thing really starts to roll over. So you got to be knowing that March, April, you're looking for kind of the downside through the summer until about August seasonally. But yeah, you got a double gap, which I always like as we talked about before right there at 16. So if you were playing UNG, I would have my target at about 1650, something like that, if you are a long UNG. And of course, you got about two weeks of bad weather coming at you, at least from what I saw earlier in the day. So what else? A question about the XLE. Has anything really changed on it? Don't really think so. You know, even today tells you a great deal. I think it's probably going to pull back to 5950. But not a bad setup. I would have liked to see a little bit more volume on the highs as it went through them. You wanted about 23 million shares. Well, you had enough 45 million shares on the fifth, 37 million shares on the sixth. I probably should have looked at this close to 35 million shares. Got some nice, but man, a pullback to 60 would be where you want to get in if you are not long already on this. But yeah, 5975, 60 bucks, probably be a nice one. Okay, what else do we have out here? Okay, question about whether or not the 3D stocks have been beaten to death enough. As we talked about this one several weeks ago, it looked like it was coming back to fill this big gap higher. Going back to May 11th of last year, as everything was of last year. 60 million shares, you're back into it with 1.4 million shares. So yeah, I don't know if you're going to take right off, but this is the pattern I look for long term. And yeah, not a bad looking chart here. Let's see if SSYS has something similar out here. Not as good, but at least back to support levels. Maybe not as beaten up as bad, but just not as good a chart pattern as this. You'd really love to see 1855 get retested on lighter volume, but today's yet another day of a light volume. But we shall see. Okay, what else do we have? Got a question about SLV, Silver Trust. You know, this is more of an industrial than gold, but it doesn't look bad. I think if you wanted to be in any kind of precious metal, it'd be gold, but silver probably not that bad. I think the whole thing would be if China gets rid of these lockdowns, I'd probably be a lot more looking at SLV. But I just saw in the news today that they're shutting more ports down, stuff like that. And that just means that the industrial side of the market is going to be weaker. But I still think gold has a long and valued run coming out here. What else do we have out here that people are asking about? Path at tfnn.com, by the way. If you haven't emailed me already today and see what else do we have? I was looking at this earlier, so we may just look through these real quick. For 52-week highs, or excuse me, 52-week high? That can't be right. It's going to be 52-week lows. Let's take a look at Target and Walmart. See how they re... Not much of anything out here. Again, you came down to 214.60 on December 20th. You're probably going to retest that and quietly, but that doesn't look bad. Okay, and what else do we want to look at? WNT? Walmart real quick. Looks a little better. Don't have a bad thing. Looks to me like this one wants to crawl back up to 151 though. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. Live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. 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The investment is for four years, paying 7% per year or $7,000 per 100,000 invested. Your investment is secured by high-value real estate in St. Petersburg, Florida. Your investment can be anywhere from $100,000 to $500,000. Do you want to make $1,000 per year on $100,000 invested or $7,000 per year on a secured Tiger First mortgage? The Tiger First mortgage program may be just the program for you. The Tiger First mortgage program pays 7% per year, paid monthly. For more information, you can call 877-518-9190. That's 877-518-9190. Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of TFNN. Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. As we return, get ready to wrap up yet another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour. We're down 38 on the S&P, down 331 on the down Aztecs, down 145, Russell's down 19. So it's all about the close now. But as we showed, a lot of stocks, but not all, testing lows on lighter volume in the big guys. They're going to have a bounce, I think, over the next two weeks. As we said, ad nauseum, the market's always going up about three quarters of the time. It just goes down much quicker in a bear market than it does in a bull market. And of course, it goes up a lot more, even though if it's baby steps higher in a bull market, you only get some pullbacks, sharp pullbacks, that are over almost instantaneously in a bear market. So as we go forward, just remember, the biggest problem about being a bear is being a perma bear. You got to come out for the spring. The sun does shine. Go out there and eat your salmon swimming upstream. But don't think that you can hang out in the bear cave all winter long. That's one of those things where you do want to know that the party does end. Cinderella does have midnight, and that happens fairly quickly. So you want to take your money when you can being short. As I said, we'll look at the volume at the end of the days here. But look to me like a big route, maybe in some of the bigger ETFs. And that's probably we're going to find out some of these companies that had been told that they were going to have to have a whole lot less margin. We're getting that in the hedge fund business, maybe some of the Robin Hood folks too. Getting trimmed a little bit. So when you can, not when you have to. We shall see you here tomorrow. Same Bat Channel, same Bat Time.