 Over to I'm Amis the Basil Chapman as we do each and every Tuesday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks Basil has an outstanding show here every trading day, 10 to 11 Eastern Standard Time. Also great newsletters, the opening call. It's very easy to get the opening call folks. Just come over to our website at TFNN You're gonna see it right under featured content. You just hit that subscribe button You get the opening call for one month for $149. You get it for six months of 6.95 Which is a savings of $199 or 22% and you can get it for a full year for $11.95 Which is a savings of $593 of 33% now they all come with a 30-day money back guarantee folks say you can subscribe It works for you for the month great for some reason it doesn't you get your money back Better than also what ends up happening Basil is about 10 to 12 archives out there that you really understand how he looks at the market every day How you ride that wave you're gonna love it Basil Chapman. What's going on? Hi, Tom. How are you doing? I'm doing great man yourself. I'm doing fine. I'm very concerned I had mentioned in my show that there's something out there that tells you a lot about Ukraine. They are the Second place in the world for barley production third largest producer and fourth largest exporter of corn in the world Fourth largest producer of potatoes fifth largest of rye fifth place in the world and bee production and then eighth place in wheat I mean we're talking about one of the reasons why I've been speaking to you for quite some time about the price of the Soft commodities. I mean we are still along in my from my subscribers the DBA, which is the DB agricultural fund and That's got all those things. It's got that. You know, so I When you look at this and you try to resolve it and you're looking at crude You were just talking about the price of you think that way crude oil is going What what we need to also put in perspective is that nothing There's nothing that can happen in the next week or two that can just resolve this to the point where I'm not talking about the humanitarian side I'm just talking about the commodity side where everything goes back to to normally lost 300,000 people or something like that that have left the country. So all that production is nothing That's just one country. So I think we've got to take this very seriously in terms of the upside potential in the overall market But within that there are some sectors that are actually working to a certain extent That I'm kind of intrigued with because they're really beaten down Nasdaq stocks There are some of those that have just taken I mean 30 40 50 60 percent declines So in that area even today, you you've got the cues and certainly the ETF that we have that has some of these Nasdaq 100 type stocks holding pretty well So it's I think this is a period where if you're long anything you have to be quite specific You have to be sector related If you're already in the sectors that are working and that's a good sign then you have to just moderate, you know Use stops or add to whenever you think you're getting a dip. You think that sectors gonna continue But most importantly when I was looking I spoke to you about the candles This particular pattern that I call the Chapman of Roman candle And it's been one of the one of the candles that we've seen in some of the major tops Over the years back in 2007 the S&P had the same candle one one month after it made the top So I spoke about this I'm an expander so that you can see and what I I still feel That there's a really good chance That over a period of a couple of weeks will start to form a base and have a really strong rally because the the intensity of the selling is so So great and the if you measured the VIX or any sentiment indicator Some of these stocks, you know, really good companies They've just been beating beating down because of the market but this particular candle where at highs the price opens up and Has a fractional little wick to the upside and then pulls back Really sharply and it comes back and then closes a half to two-thirds from the low It creates a spell called a Chapman Roman candle because you know Roman candy lighted and then proof protect you know, yes, it's it's it's an ugly looking candle in terms of a chart in the Stock market, but looking up in the sky is quite pretty But in the stock market where I say is if the wick gets taken out in a shorter time span The long wick that was formed you've got to be careful because then there could be a test of the low and You got to be careful that it doesn't break well We tested the low and then what happened that was in January now February We've closed the candle and we formed It's not exactly the same thing because the wick is a little too high But everything else about it is good and I don't want to see a second Roman candle and so far the pattern that we've got to look at is that if there is a weekly close in the S&P Below forty two ninety It says got to be careful because you could reach us the most recent low That was the low of just the other day and that was in the forty one hundred area. So it might be there by the time It's finished talking The speed of these turnarounds in today's is really quite amazing It is I just I just wanted to put a perspective on what I'm looking at here but that doesn't mean to say that there aren't certain sectors in certain areas that are working and Within that context, I think you've got to be able to put together the panoply of all these different things So when I look at the over when I look at our portfolio remember for weeks and weeks I've been saying we're raising cash we're raising cash any positions we're putting on a really basically trading positions and Quite a number. We have a gold stock. Of course, that's that's acting quite well We have some of our core positions that we've held you were speaking about the dollar and in this particular case We've been long since 90.07 back in 2018 Washington right all the way up to the It was a hundred and two point ninety nine Early January with 2020 that have plummeted down back to 89 21 fortunately I stopped held in the UUP and we're still long and it's very interesting and that's what I'm saying this is a very complex market in many many ways because I've been also speaking to you about the tradition that I have in the back of my mind is that when the Stocks get volatile meaning they're going down. That's a Wall Street terminology. Yes volatile Money tends to flow into bonds and then what happens is the bonds rise is called the safety of bonds yields come down We have only just seen that in the last week. So that's the first time that we've got that which tells me that the We cannot rule out that whatever the Fed is going to do they're gonna have no choice But it needs to do some some You know some upgrade of of the of bonds in terms of the yield But at the same time what I'm thinking is they also gonna look at the overall economic perspective So they kind of caught between a rock and a hard place. So I think that the dollar I've always considered the dollar to be Just at the back of my mind. I cheated as an icon of the American economy. It's like Holly Davidson It's just an icon around the world But it's also a go-to place because it's for forever. It's been the safest place to be So I think that's one of the reasons why the dollars going up yet gold is screaming higher So I've always said there are times when you've got to separate the volatility index the dollar bonds and In this particular case is going to be gold So I think what we're looking at Jerry's is a very complex market You just got a particular cash cash is a good position to be in For safety and at the same time we're trying to get some stocks that have this counter-train rally And that's what we try to train and folks It's very easy to get Basel's news that I come over to our website at TFN Right at the featured content. You're gonna see the opening call you hit that button That's a great one safe one. We look forward to show tomorrow morning. Thank you very much. Thank you Stay right there folks come right back