 Good morning and welcome to the Monday market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 6th of January 2020 and the time has just gone 940 gnt and This Monday has been a fairly volatile start of the trading week Carry on from the news on Friday US Around town tensions are very high At the back of the last week. There was an airstrike carried off by the US military Which killed an Iranian military commander in Iraq that sent Broadly speaking sent Global stock markets lower and it ramped up the price of oil and also ramped up the price of gold and The Japanese yen is seeing as the latter to our classic flight to play qualities Tensions between Iran and the US have gotten worse over the weekend Iran strongly suggested that they're going to have some sort of Violence or violent or military retaliation against the US United States made it very clear that if there's any sort of violent response from the Iranian regime They've already earmarked 52 sites As targets in Iran on the top of that The United States have also come out, you know, we're on top of that Iraq is also in the mix Iraq have made it very clear that they wanted to Expel or force out foreign Foreign armies such as us whereas President Donald Trump has said if Iran if Iraq go down that route and look to get a kick out the US Army that are US military that are in Iraq. They would then look to impose heavy sanctions on Iraq So the Middle East is obviously a large all-producing region and in the midst of this There is a very high tensions And with that we're seeing a continuation of what we saw on Friday global, you know, European equity markets are firmly in the red We see a push to the upside in in the oil contracts and we're also seen Moves move to the upside in metals such as silver and gold We're also seen so we're also seeing a Lot of volatility across basically markets as a whole Just because there's a real kind of fear factor that your things could you know, could potentially spiral out of control in relation to Iran It's also worth noting, you know If you look at say where global equity markets were for European and US equity markets were the back end of 2019 the very beginning of 2020 through encode a strong position that you know in late December a fancy hit multi-month high at the highest level It seems in July in mid December the backs of the 23 month high and even you know in the early new year We saw record highs on US indices. So stocks were fairly strong and lofty going into this height in tension between the US and Iraq US the US in Iran So, you know, it can act as a kind of an excuse for some traders to take some cash off the table We'll take a quick look at the week ahead article And then after that we'll take a look at some of the major markets So the weekend article can be found on our website if you go to seemsonmarkets.com under news analysis You can then find You can then find the you can find the updates that we post Taking a look along here along the latest news What you can then do is for this particular article We can see here that We've had the euros you have had many service PMI reports come out of the of Europe today Looking at you tomorrow. We have the eurozone flash CP Eurozone flash CPI reading it is worth noting that the That we had strong inflation figures out of both France and Germany at the back end of last week So tears would be keep an eye out for the headline figure from the eurozone on Wednesday We are first quarter figures from Walgreens boots alliance on Friday We have the job support out of Canada and the US the US not found payrolls being you know our to be the most important economic report of the month and While we're talking about US not found payrolls. It is worth pointing out that we're hosting a non-front payrolls live webinar event, which is on Friday the 10th of January 1315 GMT you can sign up for it here and It's going to be a live coverage of the other numbers as you come out I can if you know live as a minute analysis of the numbers and reactions to the markets And speaking of markets, I take a look now what's going on on the major markets Run down to what's going on on the big indices on oil and gold and then take a look at some of the big currency pairs The first things first like I said The level that we saw the footsie with hundred and eight December had a multi-month highs So the footsie was in a fairly strong position We can see now that we've seen a bit of weakness on the puts in hundred in the last couple of sessions They've been a decline in positive of momentum as the markets moving lower So things do appear to be kind of turning over if the if the recent negative moves continues on the puts You're under we could be likely heading back down towards this area here in around 7,470 possibly even down to 7,400 But let's not lose sight of the fact that the wider off the wider trend since early October has been very much to the upside It was not long ago. We're multi-month highs and should the political situation diffuse or look at our Temporous cam a little to the u.s. In around we could see the wider upper trend continue And should that be the case we could be looking at retaking 7,600 and should we should we retake? Yeah, the highs of late December we could then be looking heading up towards this area here in around 7,794 obviously this is very much dependent on the situation between the US and Iran Take a look what's going on over in Germany as we sell as we saw here in December We saw the German market in a 23 month high was obviously quite a very strong on a strong position It couldn't really get above this area here the zone in around 13,450 there they're about the market on a few occasions could really break beyond that We have seen a move to the downside. We're now back below the 15 moving average That's worth noting the DAX hasn't traded push below properly push below the 50 moving average and seven months since early October So it's back below 50 moving average And we're actually below the psychology book psychology important 13,000 metric So if you look to press on lower from here, we could be looking at retesting early December lows mechanism play in around 12,885 Actually, we go below that you could be looking hanging back down toward this area here in around 12,800 Like I said the wider trend the wider bigger picture trend is very much to the upside So if you do look to kind of retake The 50 moving average, you could be like you're heading back towards 13,200 and you will be on that we could they've been looking at retesting the highs that we saw in late December and early January Take a look at what's going on over on the US markets that are in a better position so we did see only The very the first trading day of 2020 the Dow Jones back to hopefully, you know yet another all-time high We've come off those those highs ever so slightly you know in the grand scheme of things Given though some people talk about World War three less like it where the Dow Jones is It's not too far away from the all-time high and if anything it's closer to it's all-time high Then it is closer to its 50 moving average this blue line here But nonetheless sentiment appears to be sour the last few sessions have been negative So if you do look to kind of push on lower from here We could be like you heading back down toward this you know the psychology important 28,000 And if you have a slice and move below that it could take us back to what word this is old here down around 27,400 or 27,325 and obviously if you know the wider upward trend continues We could be looking at retesting the recent high recent highs At 20 just north of 28,900 and if you go beyond that trend it could be legal up towards 29,000 Taking a look on the S&P 500 Similar position it was to go over all-time highs You know the markets have come off of those highs, but we're you know for considering the headlines Markets are still looking reasonably strong We have seen a move to the the downside in the last couple of sessions The market is on the MACD indicator. It's one positive momentum to negative momentum So for the time being the control appears to be with the sellers if you press lower from here We could be looking at targeting in three thousand two hundred or down to three thousand one hundred and eighty If you do see a Continuation in the kind of wider upward trend we could be looking at retesting the kind of three thousand two hundred and sixty zone And if you go beyond that we could then be looking at targeting, you know We've been fresh out on my territory of three thousand heading towards potentially towards three thousand two hundred and seventy eighty so on and so forth Like I was saying we've had a major move in the oil market in the last couple of sessions So take a look now. What's going on a brain crude? So even before we had the major jolt higher of about two sessions We could see since early October we saw the oil market was making a slow steady push to the upside We could see who's creeping along higher on a series of higher highs and higher lows so the trend that I've asked you weeks and months already was To the upside you've seen the market push on higher so far Brent has failed to actually take out the highs of September but we're not too far away from it There they're about in one of the kind of seventy two mark if you do have a size of break beyond seventy two We can have it like you're targeting this is old here the late may highs in around seventy three spot sixty And if you go beyond that we could be looking at targeting this area here in around seventy five spot seventy one If we do see any pullbacks in the oil market We could find some support from the kind of psychological important $70 per barrel area or perhaps in around sixty nine And it's only really if you're gonna have a size of break below this area here in around sixty five spot seventy nine It's only if you have a slice of break below that can then would be good to think you know what maybe maybe they kind of They kind of the wider The recent upward trend is actually cooling off and coming to an end Let's take a look at what's going on on WTI West Texas intermediate WTI is in a stronger position because the highs are we saw on WTI as of today I've actually managed to take out the highs of September so we're back at levels last seen in April last year So a good indication if I'm bullish the WTI market is If we could press on higher from here We could be looking at retesting this zone here in around 66 or maybe north of 66 dollars per barrel Should you see a bit of a move to the downside and WTI any form of a pullback We could see support come back into play in around sixty three sixty three dollars of barrel or potentially down toward this area here In around sixty dollars and sixty eight cents and even if you go below that you can find support from this area here in Around sixty bucks per barrel This before I finish up now. I take a look Before we finish up things on the commodity front. I finally take a look at gold Gold's had a very impressive run recently It's been moving higher in the last few weeks and they give them what's going on with it If the US and Iran and Iran we have see another jolt to the upside in the gold market Or now we should be at Fresh six year highs So we're now at levels last seen in April 2013. So About say there they're about six and a half year high So the so the gold market is moving steadily higher if you look to continue to press on higher from here We could be like your targetting $1,600 on the on the price of gold Should we see the market, you know cool off a little bit and give give back some of the ground I was made We could see support could play in this zone here in around 15 55 I mean we even if you have a fairly size of a correction We could look head back down for this area here of 1520 and then move below that could take us back down towards 1500 but like I said, we're at levels, you know, say six six and a half year high So it's very clear that we're still in the upper trend. I Take a look at a couple of currency pairs now before we look to wrap things up Starting off with the British pound versus the US dollar. It's obviously the We've had a good run between September through December market gave off gave a game pullback or handle back some of the gains that it made on the back of the sizable conservative majority at when at the Last month's general action, but we seem to be Seemed to be Look to kind of build on those gains again the market handle back some of the gains We've bounced back. We've had a kind of a pullback again It do appear to be kind of moving on higher and essentially what we will hold below I'll be hold above rather the fifth of the moving average here, which comes to play and in around one spot 2990 if you could hold it to you to hold above that metric You know the kind of the more recent Upward trend of the last few months is likely to continue and show we press on higher from here We could be looking at target 132 we could really get retesting The late December high in a one spot 3284 and if you go beyond that we could be looking at our in this zone here in around 135 It's only really if you make a massage a break below the Below the kind of 129 area down this area here there thereabouts Because then we begin to think you know what maybe we got further ground to give up on the pound versus the dollar We should that be the case. We could look at the heading back down towards this red line here The truth that we will be average which is in at one spot 2691 And lastly I should take a look at the euro versus the US dollar Like I said back in tomorrow. We have inflation figures from the euro zone at the back end of the week We have the all-important US non-farm payroll figures. So it's likely we could see volatility in the euro dollar So Basically since August for all of these speaking We've seen a push to the upside in the euro versus the US dollar. It hasn't always been that particularly clear It's been a bit sideways But nonetheless, we're holding above the eternity movie average this red line here And while if we hold above that metric is likely we could see further gains be made So if you do press on higher from these levels, we could be looking at targeting this zone here in around one spot 1249 and if you go beyond that We could be looking at getting it back up towards 113 If I did on the on the other hand the market does manage to turn over on itself We do kind of press on lower from here We could be looking at it back down towards this blue line here the fifth removing average and that comes to the play in at one spot 1090 And if you go below that we could then look at looking at it back down towards The water the moving average this yellow line here and that comes into play in a one spot 1053 Well, thank you for listening. Please tune in next week and have a good trading week. Thank you very much