 All right, everybody welcome back to DCA live where we try to take down the biggest topics of what's going on in the crypto and digital asset market And try to break it down and give it into some type of bite-sized pieces as always I've got Ben from another cryptoverse Ben. Thanks for coming back and of course James from invest answers gents Thanks for coming Thanks for having us. Yeah, just making sure hold on Okay, that was my echo so today as the title and the thumbnail suggests We're gonna take a look at our biases and just go against them and see exactly where we're at the thing that we want to take a look at is Especially have the drone Powell speech is Bitcoin going to 15k and if it is going to 15k, what exactly are we doing? So the first thing we want to obviously want to take a look at is what the drone Powell actually say and that in the Jackson Hole meeting I Took the whole speech which was about a minutes and 40 seconds or something that I condensed it in about Over just a little over two minutes just so we can take a refresher so everybody can get kind of dig in We'll take a look at do we see weakness in the market? We're talking about fear and greed retail sentiment and can we even take Trust on chain data take a look at an article and then the big thing I think is what's the macro signals They're telling us that it could drop or maybe not drop and then lastly If 15k is a possibility, what's your plan? So the first thing's first I As far as my opinion of what's going on There was an article it came out says Powell is not about it's not about to go all Volcker on rates at Jackson Hole Goldman's Hotziah says and I'm not gonna play it here was the video. I'm just gonna play the video itself so everybody can kind of gets Deep into what he was actually saying here and then we'll kind of dissect it as we go forward So this is the condensed version. I linked the entire video so everybody can watch it. So let's check this out The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below trend growth Moreover there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions While higher interest rates slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation They will also bring some pain to households and businesses These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain Inflation is running well above 2% and high inflation has continued to spread through the economy While the lower inflation readings for July are certainly welcome A single month's improvement falls far short of what the committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy our monetary policy deliberations and decisions build on what we've learned about inflation dynamics Both from the high and volatile inflation of the 1970s and 1980s And from the low and stable inflation of the last quarter century during the 1970s as inflation climbed the anticipation of high inflation became entrenched in the economic decision making of businesses and households The more inflation rose the more people came to expect it to remain high And they built that belief into wage and price decisions As former chairman Paul Volcker put it at the height of the great inflation in 1979 Inflation feeds in part on itself So part of the job of returning to a more stable and more productive economy Must be to break the grip of inflationary expectations The longer the current bout of high inflation continues the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched The successful Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem high inflation And to start the process of again getting inflation down to the low and stable levels That were the norm until the spring of last year Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down Forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply and to keep inflation expectations anchored We will keep at it until we're confident the job is done Okay, and then just as a quick refresher coming forward let me get this out of here is uh Remember that as he talks about this and talks about Volcker and everything else and it doesn't make a lot of sense of what he's talking about I don't know if this is the right decision. That's not for me to decide I'm just going to tell you what it is If we take a look at the actual inflation rates from 1960 to 2020 Well, 2023 doesn't exist yet, but 2022 We're gonna see that What like he talked about over the last 15 years inflation went up and we're talking about the 1960s very low 3% just went up a little bit 5% came back down as I think the former fed share before Volcker was burns And and people talk about like he didn't do anything. He did he raised rates But he just didn't raise him enough He didn't keep his foot on the neck and then Of course it came down a little bit But then just launched off and in 1979 Volcker was a point of the fed share and that's when he Made those rate Hikes so gents and I'll start Ben You're here as the first one. Let me just start with you. So what did Jerome Powell really say to you? What do you think and then what does this mean for us as far as the broader crypto and even traditional markets? Um, well, I guess I'll try to give my own perhaps ignorant interpretation of it. Um I feel like he's been advertising all along that the fed will raise rates They are going to combat inflation, you know, I think he'd rather be remembered more like Volcker was Not not like some others That doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be nearly as aggressive as Volcker was But I mean, I think he's he's right and realizing that inflation Could be easily continue to become entrenched for for quite a long period of time if they don't actually tackle it I mean, it was the fact that Volcker tackled it back then that led to I think Arguably a very booming economy later on if you just sort of let it Let it go and you pivot and you start cutting rates the minute it starts to come back down Then you could have another period where the inflation go right back up again Just because we're a little bit too soft on on dealing with it. So I think he's been pretty clear. I think, you know, he's they're going to keep raising rates I'm guessing it'll be at around three and a half percent or so by the end of the year But I think the biggest thing that the markets aren't really Digesting is that they're probably not going to immediately start cutting rates is I think the biggest thing You know, I'm not saying they're going to raise rates to like seven percent or something like that But I think that they could leave rates elevated a lot longer than a lot of people think they will I think one of the things is we, you know, we like look back over the last 20 years and say well The Fed never does what they say they're going to do Yeah inflation has him in this high for 40 years So it might be it might be better to look to see what was going on in the 70s and in the 40s Then it was say over the last 20 years. So my interpretation of it is that he's trying to You know, I think he's trying to maneuver the markets in for a soft landing, which is why he sat all along You know, I I think he's actually I think a lot of people kind of give him some some plaque for stuff I think he's actually pretty smart in the way he words things Um, you know, like you have a rally that sort of alleviated some of the pain in the market now today He came out a bit more hawkish Perhaps we'll see, you know that the market gives some of those gains back But I think he really is trying to maneuver a soft landing as as best as he can because I think he realizes that Rates are going to be they're still going to be high for for quite a long period of time And I think it's just taking I think it's honestly, I think it's just taking investors a long time to to really digest that and And that's why you see the market all over the place, you know Like some people some people think they're going to pivot some people think they're not I still sit in the camp that they're not pivoting this year And and the earliest Could come is probably sometime mid to late 2023 Yeah, and then and then before we before I get to To james because I know he's got I mean he's going to talk about GDP and how they're boxed in I think But what does this mean for traditional markets and crypto markets right now and then in the next You know up to the midterms and beyond you think we're going to see because because the next meeting is september, right? Yes, yeah, yeah, it's in like mid to late september is the next meeting We have three more meetings left so Look, I mean, I think it's going to put some downward pressure on risk assets I mean I it doesn't necessarily mean they have to go put in new lows But you know if you look back to if you actually look back to 2018 The the s&p Sort of had a bad first four or five months It then had a rally that sort of lasted through like you know the third quarter or so And then in the fourth quarter it went down again and put in a slightly lower low What was interesting is when the stock market put in a lower low crypto put in a much lower low Because I mean it like you know crypto goes up a ton in a bull market And that's why everyone flocks in but it also is the is the one that gives those gains back the most In in a bear market. So I think it I think it is probably prudent for for You know crypto investors to remain very cautious Until and so there's a little bit more clarity with with what the Fed's going to do at the end of the day you know We have all sorts of indicators and You know things that we can point to but listen at the end of the day The Fed has to play ball with us, right? We don't want to fight the Fed if they're taking away Cheap cash We don't have the same liquidity that we need to go on a sustained full run So I I think for me it basically just means there's going to still be pressure on risk assets for a while and that's probably going to continue well in the 2023 and It seems perfect because at that point we'll hopefully be gearing up for you know, the next bitcoin having in 2024 and We're taking the same cycle again Well, let's hope so. All right. So then perfect. Thank you. It's a pretty good and then my man How does this affect gdp? yeah I can't believe i'm not predictable right now First of all, uh, he he read it read it like a really boring bedtime story So for the audience out there, I hope you're still awake because jp was not on fire today because last year he was a completely different person Second of all the big thing as you hinted on And as ben hinted on to the Volcker days back in the 80s when Volcker raised rates aggressively The debt to gdp was 31% if I recall correctly And the cost of debt was 9% he jacked it to 16.5 percent and the total impact on gdp was only 2.3 percent of gdp Today it's 130 percent of gdp. It's a different ballgame different ball of wax So he can't do a Volcker second of all I just want to point out everybody everything you hear And I don't want to sound anti jp because he's a very smart and intelligent man But remember he has to also play a political game Everything that the fed say is bs. They said our overarching goal is to get inflation back down to 2% or under 2% Per shadow stats real inflation has never been under 5% for the last 40 years. So Out of the gate, they're speaking crap. Okay, so I just want people to have that rude awakening Be careful what you hear and these talking points. Okay very very important second of all what's very important to notice Everything is priced in Third thing a pivot is when the direction changes. We have 275 basis points Many people could construe a pivot is going down in the hike and the CME futures Actually during his speech yesterday as I watched this like a hook. I think it was about 66 Factored in for a 75 basis point hike in september That fell down to 54 56 percent Right after the speech So basically you can see the markets are beginning to react to reading between the lines reading the tea leaves of What he's trying to tell us and I see this as huge jaw boning They are talking it down. The other thing that people aren't talking about is pce was under expectations And that shows you the demand destruction is working Inflation is falling fast in the us not in other parts of the world because you know us is energy independent But if we look at the real estate market, it's toast demand destruction is definitely there The unemployment they talk about really strong unemployment numbers. I mean for god's sake Weed into the actual report. It's all part-time jobs And everybody's kind of laying off right now. So again all all in all the market has a factored in it's all priced in Yes, risk assets are getting hit hard right now today Bitcoin fell down to 20,530 or something But that was a great opportunity. I think Right now it's again, everything's priced in everything's been given a haircut. I see us Steadily getting more data points up in two September and they'll have more armored that the fact, you know PMI numbers are contracting fast Real estate which drives 40% of the US economy is shrinking fast Unemployment is going to go through the roof and they'll be forced to do 50 basis points And after that they can do two more 25s and that's the end of it And after that when they see how bad the economy is from getting up to that level of the fed funds Three and a half percent they will Start cutting rates Okay, that's what I see so so we know I mean we know the economy is in trouble regardless Which whichever way we go if we go a soft landing or a crash line doesn't matter We're going down for for a bit and that's just how it goes So to talk about being priced in so you're saying that in next month September if they raise 50 basis points, that's priced in would 75 And even a full price in so 75 basis points is already priced in if they do 50 the markets will rally So 50 okay, so 75 nothing will change. It'll be just smooth sailing all the way to okay. We'll see I'd like to I hope you're right my man. I hope you're right But there are great clouds in the horizon, which we'll probably talk about in a little while too Sure, so let's talk about this. Let's move on So How are we looking at the market? Do we see weakness in the market right now and what do what do the charts really show us? so i'm looking at uh fear and greed index Taking a look at just retail sentiment And then we'll get to how we can if we can trust on chain data anymore So what do you guys read as far as like the charts right now after that that jackson hole? what's going on in the charts that you see is like Is this just a minor blip or is it just uh is it more of a Of a bigger catastrophe waiting And i'll start with i'll start with uh james since he's up there already Well, uh looking at kind of the macro stuff like the dixie That shot up a third of a percent, which is to be expected You know a lot of people are saying it could go to 120 but the type of destruction that would do to emerging markets and global macro would be very destructive I think it has to stay under 110 Uh gold is falling The 10 year is up a little bit two years up a little bit yield curve is still inverted And risk assets are getting hit hard. I think you know charts etc. Are you talking specifically about on chain charts or Oh, no, just uh, just just just uh macro data and then of course if you're taking a look at uh the moving averages The rsi i mean what are we looking at here? Yeah, it was It's a ton of stuff. I think you know As I would say the the lid on the market from going up I did expect You know sometime before the elections You know, I was hoping september will be a time where we go very much risk on but that actually happened in august With very large gains, which a little bit has been paired back But yesterday we shot straight back up to the s and p 4200 which is a big surprise For that to happen ahead So I have a theory that I believe the pce number was leaked out there in the marketplace Early and the markets front run the powell speech today And that's why they're breathing back a bit right now So it's like give it and take it away all in the same breath in the same 24 hour period pretty much Um, but outside uh in terms of the macro is definitely a nasty macro backdrop strong dollars killing emerging markets like I said Eurozone world a hurt PMIs contracting both in north america and in the eurozone crazy inflation other parts of the world GDP growth domestically and abroad is at risk And the question is where you're going to park your money? And there's a lot of money on the sidelines and that's what people need to look at But there are some really really scary things on the horizon like new nuclear games being played by putin right now Um, there's some inside baseball that china is ramping up preparing for maybe a potential invasion of you know Where and these are the things these are the black swan things that kind of keep us concerned But at the same time are you going to sit out of the markets waiting for these things to maybe happen? or Let your ice cube melt away or play on the market. That's the mini dollar question for everybody. I got you So that'll be like that's kind of wraps up two questions of one Then before before I move on I want to ask you the same question So what do you see right now as far as do you see weakness in the market? Do you see things retracting? And uh, I mean you're more of the chartologist and than me. That's for sure I mean like I get things wrong sometimes. So I don't I obviously can't say for sure what's going to happen in this market Um, but things I do see I see the dollar still looking relatively strong. I I would not be that surprised to see it go above 110 Could it make it to 115? I yeah, I think it could You know, it's rallied from I mean It's rallied quite a long ways from where it was just in you know, just at the beginning of 2021 And by the way, we're at bottomed in early to mid 2021 Is is essentially the same spot at bottom back in 2018 And this is something that I was I was looking at a lot in early 2021 It was actually one of the reasons why uh the distribution phase that we went into was somewhat surprising Just because the dollar had already started to rally. But yeah, I mean the dollar has come from like, you know 89 or something like that all the way up to 108 109 I do think it could it could take out 110 and um, if it does Yeah, I mean risk assets are going to take take a pretty big hit again if you go look at at things like the um Like if you just draw lines You know connecting connecting the prior peaks for the s and p or if you look at say like the 200 day moving average You can see the s and p just got rejected off of its 200 a moving average You've seen similar things in prior pullbacks the same thing with the nasdaq as well Or or somewhere around there. I think the things that I keep looking at with the crypto markets are things like You know, I mean, of course, I know I know that the bitcoin dominance hasn't really gone exactly the way I thought it would so far this year But it is still a very similar move from from what we've saw in the last bear market, right? It was just the the the move from ethereum arguably was delayed by three months in 2018. It occurred like in april and may Yeah, the ethereum dominance had that final hurrah back up to 20 percent 21 percent dominance Ethereum's having that same type of move right now Arguably it's just hype going into the merge and once the merge has kind of come and gone As much as I like ethereum and as much as I you know, I think it's actually the best layer one out there and it will Stand head and shoulders above like, you know, a lot of it's like competition. I still don't see it outperforming Bitcoin like this for you know for too much longer So one of the one of the things that you'll if you look at with the bitcoin dominance anytime it gets to around 40 percent It's usually not a good thing, you know, like it every single time it happens Uh, it typically means that the market is is not going to go the direction that we want it to go If you're wanting it to go up So I think that's some that that's a huge cause for concern right now As much as as much as people like showing me on the bitcoin dominance the fact that it is back to 40 percent is somewhat Concerning and to also we had the exact same move in 2018 So it's probably my own fault for not for not even thinking that it could occur again So yeah, that's those are some of the concerning things and then the last main thing I will point to just really quickly are things like there's plenty of indicators that say the bottom is that right? There's plenty of indicators that say the bottom is in for bitcoin There's still a few that say it's not and again as I said before you can have a thousand indicators But if the Fed doesn't play ball, it just doesn't it doesn't mean it doesn't mean anything, right? So the the main one that i'm looking at right now Are our indicators like the one year running ROI on bitcoin Historically you see a bottom at around point two and right now it's sitting at point four two three And the best time for it to bottom The most efficient way for it to bottom would be for it to bottom one year after the november peak So, you know, I mean that's that's my main worry going into the end of the year Where people say it's different this time around You know from 2014 and 2018 But if you look at the market cycle ROI from the peak and you compare 2014 2018 and 2022 We were at the exact same point at the exact same time where we're down about 60 to 70 percent And we stay in that 60 to 70 percent range for like three to four months We find we have the final capitulation And then we start we start the next cycle I'm not saying it has to play out like that But it's what it's what keeps me concerned about the short term Optimism on crypto. Gotcha. James. You want to add anything add anything to that? and no except um well I I was going to say something but I don't want to thank myself from popular, but I do believe That's okay. Show you how my channel. Don't worry about it I do believe in more compressed cycles So I did a video about this the other day. I think everything is kind of compressing more and more so Getting up to that one year after the November top. It could be a little shorter before the true bottom That's just my only point Gotcha. So if we're looking don't go ahead and we may have already hit that true bottom too most probably You know, let's hope so but uh, one of those things is like and like what uh, what ben said about, you know Is is the fed gonna pivot doesn't look like it. Can the fed pivot later? Yeah, I mean, maybe they could I mean, they're gonna they're gonna go up 75 basis points. You say in september october. I think there's another one I believe 25 So yeah We'll see but before we move on to the next one and james, you kind of already touch on this Uh, what's the what's the fears that you have as far as the macro? I know you had talked about the wars you talked about the home prices Of course inflation right talking about well, is there anything else in these these macro events that you look at and go This is a concern This is what gives me pause and what makes me stop selling my house and kidneys and kids to put it on the bitcoin Yeah, again the well first of all the global macro situation Strong dollar as I mentioned would really destroy emerging markets I'm looking at PMI contracting all over the place inflation numbers like I have not seen in my lifetime And that's more than five decades You know the the macro backdrop as I say is stunningly awful But at the same time There's so much money in the system and where you're gonna put your money when you have a spread for example in the united kingdom between Potential 18.6 percent inflation and 1.775 percent interest rates What are people going to do with their cash? You got to make it work and that's that's the problem we face here it's a real dilemma and we were in a macroeconomic situation that It's unprecedented. It's never happened before And that's why you you hear key words from Jerome Powell a couple of things he did say I think he said You know, they're gonna do all they can he spoke politically saying this hurts those that can least afford to take It are words of that effect. It's kind of like a political talking point He admitted the labor market is softening growth will slow So it's like he's looking in a rear-view mirror from six months ago This was all very predictable And I know he's going to be much more data driven now looking at data But the data that they have is not only wrong, but it's also old So they're not looking at exactly where the world is today. That's why I'm very confident when he starts looking at his three-month old data in september, which is flawed. Anyway, he'll say uh-oh If we continue with our foot on the gas hiking rates We are going to destroy this economy. We are going to do a vulgar and we can't because of the issues I've met before So he said as well, it's going to bring pain to households Which you can't do that going into an election year for november. That's the other big thing about the us situation here um, you know, okay Democrats are in control. Let's bring some pain to households in october 2022. That is just is not going to fly I believe so And also going back. He did mention as well 70s Uh, and the 70s is not an analog for today's situation. We were in an unprecedented time But by real concerns though beyond all that is the european situation The ukraine situation and the stuff that china is doing right now China Yeah Big factor. All right, and then i'll follow you any of the big macro events that concern you besides the the fed not pivoting I See what's going on in in, you know, ukraine that were to escalate into Something like nuclear related. I guess that could be a big issue. Yeah My background is nuclear engineering actually so A little bit, um But yeah, I mean I I also have sort of learned over the you know, the at least brief time that I've invested over the last A decade or so that like, you know, you won't ever make any money if you constantly worry about what could happen Right, you know, I I don't really I don't really spend too much time focusing on on like events like that that I can't You know, I have no way to know when they'll occur or maybe things like, you know That we worry about or that you could worry about today. Maybe they do occur But maybe they occur in 10 years and and the s and p is up another 3x by that point or something, right? So Yeah, yeah, I don't I don't spend a whole lot of time worrying about it I think the main thing that I'm I'm looking at is just like when will the fed pivot and And inflation and just trying to figure out like, okay What could realistically get them to to lower interest rates and and for us to get back on track And I I don't think we're we're there yet and I I think he's been pretty clear about that like multiple times I just think the the market refuses to believe it Yeah, no the market. I mean they do refuse to actually believe those things and just to just a touch on what kind of like both You said, I mean, there's only something that so many things we can actually do And then James you touched on, you know, like we're gonna put your money Because there's a lot a lot of money sloshing around and there's this there's this graphic I always talk about all the world's money in markets And this is back from in 2020 and you can see like each one of these little squares is a hundred billion dollars and this was 2020 crypto was 244 billion and then look at this part right here gold almost 11 trillion It's more now fortune 500 companies Are you looking at over 20 billion or yeah stock markets? No trillion stock markets 90 trillion money supply. This is way more untrillion global debt Real estate 382 trillion global wealth and derivatives a quadrillion So the so the thing I always think about this is that we know there's a lot of money sloshing around But the big question is is one of these people going to because we know that institutions are are buying up more than what the retail does As far as like crypto and digital assets The question I always have is when are they actually going to start really deploying deploying because I take a look at these Factors, especially the macro take what's going on with drone fed not pivoting What I want to do is just wait Especially like for real estate if I'm if I'm have a lot of money I'm just waiting. I'm like, well, I know it's going to go down So maybe I just want to play it right now not that it's not going to happen Just going to take a little bit of time and that only needs in my last question, which is this If 15k is a possibility just saying it is biases What's your plan? So ben since you're up there, what do you got if it does go to 15k or you see it start to drop Where do you want to be? um, certainly not in all coins I've been listening like I've given this warning literally all year that alts are going down against bitcoin and I mean, I know they've balanced in the last couple of months, but you know, if you use that as a reference point to alts having done Well, they're still down like 40 50 60 percent against bitcoin, you know over the last eight or nine months. I I think that I mean, look, I I think the altcoin. I'll just say it like I think the altcoin reckoning is coming I think they're going to get absolutely wrecked against bitcoin um And probably against the us dollar as well And and then we'll start fresh once everyone has has has given up on alts I mean If bitcoin listen like it was it was after bitcoin had that it was in that 60 to 70 percent range From the all-time high that is where alts lost so much against the us dollar and against bitcoin That's where we are right now. I think the main thing holding the altcoin market up right now is the is the merge Like I think ethereum it leads the altcoin market. I think it's holding it up um I I am very concerned about about what comes after like that and and by very concerned. I mean like I'm Don't really hold many altcoins um Mainly like in in the stake pools and stuff that I have but I don't hold a lot so I I think that if if you see a 15k bitcoin That means that alts are probably down, you know a lot more And and therefore I think people should should take that risk into consideration Not that it has to play out like that. Yeah, it's taught us anything is that things don't always play out in the same way But if if it does happen Um, and you don't you and you didn't plan for it Then you have no one else to blame but yourself because it would have literally been the exact same thing that happened in 2014 And the exact same thing that happened in 2018. So, you know, I'll sit here Being as risk versus ever And we'll see, you know, we'll see by the you know, I would say by december or january There should be, you know, some resolve to all this and they're either going to go down against bitcoin or they're not Um, if they don't I was wrong and I I feel like worst-case scenario for me is I miss the usd bottom And I maybe I deploy slightly later into it, but for me, it's just not worth the risk So to have too much capital deployed into all coins At this time and I've said before, you know, I I do think bitcoin is probably a lot closer to whatever its bottom is And and including the fact that the bottom could be at right like I there there's Could be in it could be in Um, but I still think it's much closer to whatever the bottom is than a lot of its altcoin counterparts. Okay, so Um, like it'd be interesting if the bottom is in Um You know, could could could it retest that bottom and that's where alt's bleeding against bitcoin? I don't know. Maybe it maybe I'm just being too too stubborn And and wanting to see the alt bitcoin pairs play out how they how they've always put out before and you know If I am if I'm wrong. I'm wrong But that's where I currently stand and I do I mean I do think 15k is enough of a possibility to at least merit some thought to it happening Yeah, and it can happen or it might not happen. I think the big thing that ben you said which was pretty good risk You know, how do we play with risk? So james that will be Up to you. So if you think it goes on a fifth, let's say like this. Let's say that you've got your Your stop losses in and it goes but it goes to below 20k. All right. Do you have a buying position open right now? Me yes. Oh, yeah, I just bought hard this morning actually I uh, I yoloed in Based on the fed market because but that's kind of that's my method I just I wait for these kind of moments Yeah, and I just jump in because I think ben you said something you nailed it um As an I can't remember your exact words, but the way I would say it is as an investor You do not want to worry about what you cannot control now the real question for everybody out there is Everything is possible is a 15k bitcoin possible. Yes But is it probable and that is what investing is all about you got to run your expected values Calculate your risk reward and that's where it happens. So there's so many people out there waiting for the the three and a half k 10k 12k and you guys know the names of the people like keep repeating these targets Over over over over over again, and I got people coming to me saying you're an idiot I'm waiting for 3,500 all the time where I'm waiting for 10,000. It's like You can do whatever you want. I personally don't care But you have to run what is probable and this is where people fall down. So Like over the last seven eight weeks, you know, I was taking out Say one to three thousand dollars of trade with great regularity sometimes two three four times a week on bitcoin Buy three bitcoin sell three but buy four bitcoin buy two sell etc etc that Was an extremely lucrative strategy. So don't don't see this market as just a Sit and wait for that ten thousand dollar bottom or twelve thousand dollar bottom But be prepared to trade it and also if you are in the dca game, this is a Very good time to start stacking as they say stacking sats. The other thing as well getting back to What we're saying like a big picture You know, this time is different I I Thought with all that happened back in may in early june. I thought everybody would flee to bitcoin Maybe some ethereum, but no people are still yoloing into very high risk altcoins and that that djm dna is not going away So if the bitcoin were to go to 15k that would put ethereum back under a thousand dollars, which means the eth Proof of stake Merge is probably going to be a massive failure, which I don't see happening either I don't think it's going to be a mess and I see a lot more money coming into eth therefore You know, it is a little bit different and that eth move to proof of stake Changes a lot of things in my opinion and it changes the altcoin world too. So again a lot there to digest But that's my take back to the your question is 15,000 possibility. Yeah Do you want to sit on the sidelines and wait for that? No Take a third of your bag now drop it Buy another third if you think it's going below 20k set your limit order at 20k or 19,100 Never buy it and then take your last third and buy it at 16k if that's what you believe is going to happen Otherwise Look at the upside versus the downside and make your own calculations. Yeah, and that of course Not financial advice. That's just what James is doing and that's not what you have to do To be your risk-aversive. I got I will say I will say though with regards to the merge Like I I'm very bullish on ethereum and I I think the transition will be great to proof of stake But it does introduce uncertainty into time when we know a lot of regulation is coming so I mean the the merge itself could be categorically a huge success In terms of what they're trying to accomplish But it doesn't necessarily mean that the price is necessarily going to reflect that if if there's sort of uncertainty as to You know, like is there, you know, will the will the you know Will the governments bring down the hammer on things not that they can necessarily Like stop it per se, but there there could be some fear there Yeah That's my main concern and then I think that that alone Could be the catalyst that that sends the bitcoin dominance I mean, I'm gonna be an old man by the time it finally goes back up But that alone could be the catalyst that finally sends the bitcoin dominance higher It's just people fearful of of altcoin regulation and I mean, you know, everything that's happened this year With regards to, you know, celsius network and a lot of the other platforms like that's going to keep people Not wanting to to jump right back in I think as as quickly as they they maybe would have I don't know My thought Yeah, I can I can see I can definitely see all those I can I look at both of the sides and it makes a lot of sense I will say that as far as like the dgem plays There is a massive amount of dgen investors out there and there's nothing wrong with that If you want to do that, just know that you're totally gambling I think that's going to actually go away a little bit as time goes on Especially if if james is right as far as like the unemployment rates going up because if people are really doing part-time jobs I could be able to afford that. It's going to be crazy. And if we take a look at the electricity cost I don't know about you but here in texas one's doubled. I know in europe You're looking at five six eight x and they're looking even more so So I think that is the the amount of free money that was given by quantitative easing kind of decreases You see the less of those dgen plays and I would hope that the institutions would come in and actually buy more The big question is are they waiting like everybody else or not? And what james said and ben actually said too These guys that are waiting for the 10k 3k first of all The retail they're not going to buy because once it gets 10k like i'll wait to eight And once it gets to three they go to one the ones that actually Go ahead of it. Just take a look and say, you know what is this Is bitcoin ethereum and these assets are they cheap or are they expensive and regardless of what you think right now It is cheap and I will say like this for all the three opinions that I have or the two opinions Thank you guys for coming on for me I'm caught in the middle and I'm not I'm still dollar cross averaging But not as much as I did before because I don't know I'm waiting for the mid-term elections to come out I'm waiting to see what'll happen there. I'm waiting to see if these basis points come out But I think the big thing for me is I look at risk and think to myself. What's the riskier thing if I don't invest or if I do invest If I stack cash, that's good But a little bit of sip a little bit of cash goes a long way to invest into something small because in five years I think it'll be good having said that gents. Thanks again for for being on the show. I appreciate it Now let's get into a little bit of questions unless anybody wants to comment anything Before we go on it because it's there's always like a 30 second delay before I get some some decent questions besides about ben's shirt and uh, james's new microphone, so Go ahead and just rip it off I was just gonna say that even if you you know, like even if you think it's gonna go down or think there's a good chance of it going down Um, it doesn't mean you should you should be completely out of the market I think it's always good to hedge Like, you know, just just because you think something's going to go a certain way doesn't mean it will Um, so just a reminder to to hedge like even though I think that things could go south It doesn't mean I'm completely out of the market Well, look at james james just bought a boatload of uh bitcoin today Then other things too. So Uh, not just that Probably a bunch of cardona or something. I get you Okay, so here's here's just some basic questions, uh, ben where can we find your avalanche pool address? I don't have one right now neither do I and just stop running. Yeah, I stopped running it like six months ago Yeah, we just got done with ours seven days out and we're not going to do it again But uh, you can find all the information on dan dan teaches crypto. Ah I don't know if we should even i'm not going to get in this question. No Let's see germany's bought one million ivol batteries Rob, do you like the shirt and microphone? I like the I like both of them. I know james here's got a nice new microphone. He sounds pretty good Let's give it up to james for investing So people can actually hear him if anybody wants a microphone I've got a the place is littered with tons of microphones So if anyway needs when any up-and-comer you two want someone drop a comment and I'll ship it to you. Nice Hey, how about this one? How about tesla? Do you guys well? I know james you're in tesla, but but ben do you? You get into equities a little bit. Yeah, you do Yeah, yeah, isn't there a stock split? Yeah, there was Yeah, there was. Ah, there we go Yeah, so so what'd you guys do for for that situation wait until after or buy before and let it right up Right now so typically before stock splits is a what they call a pre-split run And we had that The post-split duck as I call it too was actually a lot shallower and then we expected so even in the very down market I think tesla is down 2% Last time two years ago it was very interesting and after the announcement of the first 15 days tesla stock doubled and then it fell 35 percent and then it Tripled again after that. So it's kind of a tesla is a funny beast But again that too is caught in this macro I think Right now the new base price for tesla will be kind of that 270 to 300 price area and it will be going up to 400 before year and I reckon not financial advice Just the earnings are just going to be so spectacular for this company and then they have a i day coming and Also at the under $300 price point It does open up to retail investors that want to buy that share or so just to start Getting a position and probably what will be the most valuable company on earth in a very short window of time We'll see I'll be right. I got some I have a little tesla Hey, uh, this is a good one this the black rock story, which I think was like 10 days ago or so Um, how this will this affect the market james will start with you Uh, because they're they're are they doing ETFs They they filed for one. I think with some partner or uh, I just don't know what the status is on that That'll be one option Uh, but they're working mostly with institutional clients Now they have the on ramp for the institutions to actually stack bitcoin by their partnership with the coin base And that's all big but again the type of people that are moving this money do move a little bit slowly So don't expect it to be from one day to the next They'll gradually creep in but looking at some of the on-chain data up until a week ago. It looks like there was You know 10,000 plus bitcoin bags whale holders were growing Yeah quite a bit. It did slow down Once we hit that 24 8 25 k level you could see them dumping You know once we got I think was about two and a half thousand dollars above the realized price of bitcoin It just fell down hard, which is typical and that's why this is this is a trader's market This is they're gonna have a lot of chop until we get the lid off the jar, which is the fed And the other micro backdrops, but in the meantime trade away Gotcha Blackrock is doing too. Yeah ben same thing black rock Is it gonna make a difference and doesn't look like they're really doing too much right now But it like james said it probably is a good Or traders. I'm just not a trader. So it's like good for me. I don't know. I think it makes a bunch of a difference I mean, I think it's a good. It's good news for the next The next the next bull market only have cheap liquidity and everything again, but Not really makes a huge difference right now Hey, how about this one? What's your opinion on the cardano upgrade for vasal? Is it gonna is it gonna lead to price appreciation or not really? Yeah, this is the so I mean you always have idiosynchotic risk and market risk, right? I mean like like the idiosynchotic risk on cardano Of course like there's it usually does pump into things like this But I don't I mean with the market risk I think is is playing a huge role right now like in the health of the entire asset class, right? Like so if if bitcoin were, you know, at a healthier price point Then I think it could make a big difference, but with bitcoin where it is today I don't I don't really know how much of a difference it's going to make I mean, I mean, I still think cardano is a good project and I'll I'll still hold it for the next bull market, but Um, I mean again, we've we've seen it pump into these kinds of things and then it usually is a sell the news event You know This is how this is how it wasn't a bull market. This is how it wasn't the bull market too, right? So I mean, I I don't really anticipate a huge difference now as we're trying to get out of the bear market, but Um, yeah, maybe some optimism short term, but it's not going to change the door I don't think it's going to change any macro directions right now Yeah, I don't see that. I mean it's good for the project. I don't see the narrative James anything on that one I did just upgrade. I did just upgrade my um My cool. Yeah, excellent Yeah, I have a lot of respect. I think charles came out last weekend or was it last friday seven eight days ago And he was wearing his heart on the sleeve. He was venting a lot of frustrations He's kind of throwing his hands in the air saying there was some You know bad decisions made if he had the chance to do a do-over He would have avoided haskell as a language which I've been talking about for a long time But uh, it was it was nice to see him kind of fight back and be very open and honest and From what I see the code is ready. There's a few little things that need to tweak before they can deploy Um, so all good on that side, but I think the big thing he did mention one other thing too And that was what I look at too is the adoption of the chain Daily active users and you seem to be a bit frustrated with that He feels the need maybe to invest more in marketing and getting more adoption at least reading between the lines That's what I got from it But it was nice to see him hit back to his haters And uh, where his heart and his sleeve that is nice. I mean there's and there's no shortage of that I can attest you I could attest to that fact Hey, here's a good question And this is an interest and I know where this comes from Is it possible that bitcoin does not seem all time high again? And what this comes from is There was there's a gentleman named blockchain backer He's on youtube smart guy does a lot with uh with ta does a fantastic job And he's the one that called the top last one. He said I think that around 67 was the top But he said I don't see bitcoin making an all-time high ever again. I believe that was his statement I don't I don't uh necessarily Believe into that same but it is it is an interesting thing because he takes a look and makes his case for ta But I'm just gonna ask you guys. What do you think and either one want to jump in go ahead I mean I I'll let james go first Well, I just again I look at adoption Look, just look at the lightning stats. Look at the accumulation. Look at the scarcity. It's been my thesis from bitcoin from day one That's why I completely fell head over heels around it and again The more it's used it's it's only a matter of time before somebody really starts to Weaponize the lightning network to displace traditional finance and that for me is extremely positive And if met capsule is even a quarter right? We were going to smash through the all-time high again. Yeah, and it's always a question of when right then what do you got? I mean, I look anything's possible. Um, like this one thing you learn with investing I do think bitcoin will hit a new all-time high eventually For me like the worst case scenario. I mean the worst case scenario is already goes to zero Right like theoretically, but like the the most realistic worst-case scenario would be like we have a loss cycle where Like if if inflation is still very much entrenched Um for the next like three to four years Maybe we have a cycle where you know, we bottom it at you know, 12k 15k We go up to 50k, but you know interest rates are still high. There's not really access of cheap liquidity Um, and we we don't hit a new all-time high I could see that happening next cycle depending on if the macro can get better like I know people want the Fed to pivot Uh, I would rather them get inflation under control so that we can get back to normal Because if we don't then we're just going to have to kick the can down the road and pay the price for it So I do think we'll see a new all-time high. I mean, maybe worst case is it it doesn't happen next cycle or something Yeah, I mean before you know before I get to that question from David There is a point, you know, just remember this that I mean bitcoin's gone through a lot of different Uh instances and time frames, but if we take a look at just like the dates of us recession However, you want to define that I don't know what people are defining it these days I thought it was two consecutive quarters of gdp decline or whatever It was created in 2009 And after the the great recession we've had a good decade of economic growth now here we are in the decline So it would be interesting to see that bitcoin can get through this and wars and the coronavirus and all those things I think it'll be unbeatable But the last question we'll we'll start with this is I think there's something else comes up Ben same thing With the with the eave merge. I don't the narrative to me. I don't see where a bunch of money is going to come in but as we get closer will it be increase or Even there's going to be a buy the news sell the rumor Or buy the rumor sell the news. Well, it's already have been buy the rumor You know theory hammers up like 2x in a relatively short period of time um So yeah, like like I keep thinking to myself Like how could it rally like even months after uh, I'm not like I will say this like I'm I'm I feel somewhat confident but not confident enough to not have any ether, right? So like I do have some ether in case it just goes on this like crazy rally that I'm not expecting Uh, like I don't want to be the the guy that just didn't have any because I was so convinced that it wouldn't Um go up, but I'm not as heavy as I was on it back in like in 2020 like 2019 2020 I was pretty heavy east Going into into the into the you know the the bull market in early 2021 Now I'm not nearly as heavy ether I would I could see myself get, you know, maybe like later this year early next year or something But yeah, I don't know. It's it's definitely gonna buy the rumor. I don't we'll have to figure out if it's a sell the news Yeah, I don't and for me, it's the same thing. Uh, I'm just waiting I'm really waiting till next year to see what happens But I'm still buying a little bit along the way James. You still buying ether just all bitcoin now I have not bought eth since Before summer 2021 So I've been trying to lighten my load and swap it into other things that move faster um And that's been that's been my plan. I uh deal because in full disclosure to everybody I didn't do things that were bought were bitcoin originally way back when and then I started buying eth You know when I hit 100 bucks or whatever 90 bucks Back during the crash. It was kind of one of the things that I missed and I waited years to Jump on it again. And uh, so now I'm just trying to lighten my eth load because I do believe it is um ethereum is great. It is my second biggest crypto holding but On a relative value perspective I think there are other things that need to come up To have much more of that market share at least based on transactions based on daily active users Based on breath of dapps all that type of stuff Yeah, and right now they're trying to change the wings on the plane and that's causing some Some headache for ethereum still bullish on it still hold it but uh, I haven't bought it for a very long time Probably do well probably do well in the long run, but we'll see who's going to be the big winner All right, everybody. So that's it for today. We're coming up on the hour And again gents, I appreciate you guys coming on sharing your thoughts and opinions and we'll go from there So everybody don't forget to uh in the link in the description You can find james the best dancer is also his patreon also with then you can find his youtube channel plus His website app dot another cryptoburst.com links in the description. So that's it for today everybody Thanks so much for stopping by we do appreciate it. Like and subscribe. See you on the next one Thanks all