 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The matchup is set for the 2023 college football national championship game between the Michigan Wolverines and the Washington Huskies We are here today to break down that matchup with Dr. Ed Feng get his read on both sides of this game key takeaways from the semifinal Matchups and some player props he likes over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Wednesday by Dr. Ed Feng you can find his work at the power rank dot com check him out on Twitter at the power rank as well And the Michigan Wolverines are in the national championship game taking on Washington It's actually two sides of a good Ed matchup here because you've been on Michael Pennings Jr. For a very long time and he gets to face Michigan here, so it's kind of a win-win for you That's right. We get a big 10 championship game Championship so that's kind of nice and yeah, I guess it's kind of win-win I mean, I think Let's not forget that I went through a pretty big stretch of fading Washington. It's true Sidewise this season and they they certainly had their struggles I do think some of them show up in this game, which we'll get to but yeah I know it should be it should be a good matchup You were very profitable in your read of Washington this year though Because you were fading them when they had their issues in the middle part of the year And then you were on them last week when they decided to win that game outright So I feel like your read of Washington overall has been pretty good this year, which to me at least I think gives more credence to what the numbers may say not to spoil things about what this about this specific matchup Yeah, let's hope so. I think I think some of my analysis is pretty good One of the props I gave out did not win but but we'll talk about that again towards the end of the show You get a touchdown at least so it's okay It was the least fun to watch regardless. So we'll talk about that later on we're talking about takeaways from the semi-finals we'll talk about the side and total for this game and also player props at likes for this weekend Just one second but first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast big week on tap before this week because we of course have NFL week 18 Coming up we'll break down that with Ed tomorrow right here on this exact same feed And we'll also talk some player props for week 18 with Tom Vecchio Coming up on Friday in addition to that Tom will have a couple episodes of prime time Tom breaking down both the Saturday night and Sunday night football games Texans Colts and then Bill's Dolphins all right here in the covering the spread podcast feed So make sure you're subscribed wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify You can also find all these shows over on a fan dual TV plus the NFL regular season is wrapping up But there is still time to get in on the action with fan dual America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets with any winning five or guarantee when you place a $5 bet That's 150 bucks and bonus bets win or lose the app is so easy to use and there are so many different ways to bet like live Singing parlays that's via the new Explorer tab You can make a parlay in the parlay hub the best way to find popular parlays and more So visit fan dual and make your first bed a lamp fan dual official partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and present in select states Fan dual is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star casino LLC First online real money wager only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is now a drop of bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat Restrictions apply see terms in sportsbook fan dual calm gambling problem call one hundred gambler or was a fan dual calm slash Rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee and Virginia Call 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Arizona 1-88-789-7777 over the ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut 1-800-9 with an Indiana 1-800-522-4700 visit kscandleyhealth.com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1-800-gambler.net in, West Virginia 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling help line ma.org or call you enter 327 5050 for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877 hoping why or text open why in New York? Let's dig in now to this national championship game between Michigan and Washington right now at Fandall sportsbook Michigan is a four and a half point favorite total in this game is 55 and a half at Fandall sports book now We talked a lot about your your model which is very reactive to new data And we got a lot of very good data for this matchup on Monday So what were your biggest takeaways from each team in the semifinals that apply to this matchup next week on Monday? My prediction actually didn't change at all after the semifinal games I had Michigan by three about three points and my prediction is Michigan by three point three points So both Michigan and Washington got bumped up by about a point after their performances in the semifinal games I don't really see any value in the side here So, you know, I mean, I think it kind of becomes a little bit more granular in terms of you know What you want to take and how you want to analyze this game But but yeah, I think you know kind of the analysis of this game is really in the matchups And not in like the overall team analysis So let's talk about those matchups then because we were talking prior to the Ohio State game You know, it's Marvin Harrison, Jr. A lot of some other talent at at receiver for Ohio State and we get a Similar version here with the Washington wide receivers facing Michigan's cornerbacks It's a tough task here given what they can do How do you view that matchup here the Washington past catchers against Michigan's secondary in this matchup? I Certainly think it's a scary matchup for Michigan and their secondary. I think Washington is Really good on offense. I talked about like a really high ceiling For this offense. That's actually why I had my members Bet Washington minus two and a half for for plus money in the semifinal game I thought they could lose and may potentially lose badly But if they were gonna play really well, they had a chance to win that game And then two and a half to seem like the right number because because of field goals and things like that. So Yeah, no, they certainly have a high ceiling How how does Michigan match up? I think they'll do a little bit better than Texas I think will Johnson is is Kind of known as an elite cornerback and I can't really figure out why he's not on big boards right now It's not like he was hurt that much this season. He's played reasonably well He, you know, had a big play against Marvin Harrison, Jr. Against Ohio State. Otherwise wasn't I Didn't think he was great against them besides that one play where he got the pick and I Actually think Washington's receiving core as a unit is better than Ohio States I don't think anyone can match up with Marvin Harrison, Jr. But Roman Dunze is not that far behind You could see his speed and his talent on the field in that semi-final game. And again I think Jalen McMillan is almost as good when you look at kind of significant games You know, don't say had 9.4 targets per game 100 about 111 yards per game in 14 games this year McMillan and the five games that he was really there and back 8.4 targets 105 yards per game. They had an equal number of targets in in that last game So I think the problem is, you know, you probably put will Johnson on a dunce Day and then who's who's gonna cover McMillan? You know, I mean, it's gonna be Wallace on the other side But you know, you still got to deal with Polk and enable a lot of other weapons and Michael Penn looks look really good And that's semi-final game. I mean, I do think Washington Can move the ball Against the Michigan defense Michigan is I think clearly gonna focus on limiting the explosive plays Because that was something that Texas couldn't do I think that has to be Michigan's game plan. I think they'll be reasonably successful in doing that But but it is a scary matchup because this is one of the best offenses in college football And I know we don't spend a lot of time talking about the ground game It does matter a bit more in college football than in the NFL But now with Washington being banged up there I feel like it does allow Michigan to devote more resources to stopping the pass. So I Don't know if that's like Going to to make it where they can shut down Washington's passing attack I don't think that can happen, but I think if you're facing three legitimately very good wide receivers if you're able to devote more resources to that and not kind of worry as much about The ground game. I feel like that does at least put Michigan in a better position to have some success here defensively Yeah, for sure first. I need to go on a little rant about Dylan Johnson He's the Washington running back that got hurt towards the end of the game And I was just I was just beside myself that he did not roll off the football field knowing that like he gave Texas 40 seconds or whatever it was Yeah, you got hurt They had to stop the clock and instead of you know punting the Texas with 15 seconds They punted the Texas of 42 seconds, which could have cost him the game. So Look, I'm sure look. I'm sure he almost died on that play But if that were my kid, I'd be like, dude, you got a roll You got a roll off the field and like ask the linemen to carry you I think that's that because I was thinking about it the moment I was like I would be calling for the linemen to like grab. I would be like, yeah Get the linemen to carry you like off the field like you can't sit on the field and be hurt in that situation I Presumably comes back right? I mean, I know he's listed as questionable I think part of that run game has to be that offensive line. So I doubt it's a zero for them I think Michigan's defense played really well against Alabama. I mean, they got a lot of pressure on the quarterback I think a lot of that is that Jaylen Morrow takes a lot of sacks And that was something that Bill Connolly pointed out in his analysis before the game and you could kind of see Morrow just He just doesn't make quick decisions and that certainly helped Michigan get there Michael Pennings doesn't really have that problem. But if Michigan's for you know, from four can really get pressure Like they did against Alabama that's certainly gonna help Yeah, it's a couple different things there where it's a very different situation where Morrow takes a lot of sacks Hold on the ball. Pennings does not hold in the ball super long, but still goes deep So it's like a very different situation there And that offensive line is I think better or two where they Predict it very well this year But also they haven't faced a lot of fronts like Michigan's yet this year So it'll be a very different test for Washington this week than what we've seen so far this year It's a question of how much of a difference does that make? I don't know honestly I thought that I thought Texas's defense was a lot better than what they played on Monday So maybe Washington is gonna have to hold up against like better level defenses But it is at least a question of whether or not they can hold up against likely the toughest front They face so far this year Right. I also would like to note that like Michigan doesn't really have a lot of High draft picks on this defense the players that rate out the highest are Chris Jenkins who's an interior lineman and then safety Rod Moore and this is when you tend to look at big boards and I'm not you know There's there's kind of a difference between big boards and mock drafts or where they'll actually be picked But you know safety and interior defensive linemen are not exactly premium positions Will Johnson is an interesting one because he has I've read some stuff that he would have been a you know Pre-high pick last year, and I think he's pretty talented. So maybe he'll end up I mean he has an opportunity to make a lot of money with performance in in this game But if you look at the past couple years, you know, they've had guys like Aidan Hutchinson that was a top pick two years ago They you know, Mazzie Smith was an interior lineman that went in the first round this past year DJ Turner is is Playing almost every snap for the Cincinnati Bengals cornerback from Michigan This this Michigan defense doesn't have I think players that project that good at the NFL level But they're a better unit than either of those past two units. So a lot of credit has to go to Jesse Minter You know do I think this defense is good? Yeah I mean, I think it's really good and they and they should be able to get pressure on Washington But on the other hand, it's it's not necessarily a unit. That's full of NFL stars, right either, right? So let's talk about the opposing side here and talk about Michigan's offense taking on Washington's defense And then Michigan offense hasn't had to do a whole lot this year honestly because the defense has been so good They've been efficient, but they haven't had to like be in a lot of shootouts so far So they could get tasked with that here depending on how well Washington does How well do you think Michigan will move the ball when they're facing this Washington defense? I Think they'll move it really well on the ground Washington when I look at adjusted success rate has the 101st best unit in the nation That's clearly awful and you could see it in the game against Texas. I had a CJ Baxter under 81 and change Rushing yards and I mean I thought that I'd lost by the end of the first quarter He was getting to the second level consistently against this Washington defense. I think Michigan's offense can do that as well You're gonna see a steady dose of Blake Corme and if they're successful at that Like I don't know how many times JJ McCarthy is gonna actually throw the ball I think they're gonna ground and pound against this team and I think they can be successful at it Washington significantly better at defending the pass as well They actually have a potential first-round edge rusher and Braylon Trice's On that unit. So I think it's pretty simple for Michigan You you try to cram it down their throats and if you're successful I mean basically you try to cram it down the throats and hope you don't make the same types of little tiki-taki mistakes that you Did against Alabama and I think that's a formula for being up in the second half Which leads the more running the ball. So I do think Michigan is gonna be able to move it You know, if they're fortunate, they'll get some explosive plays out of Blake Corme who's certainly capable of it and and honestly, that's really where where the edge is for Michigan and It's not just the tiki-taki stuff running the ball, but also just not muffing 16 punts I think they're also probably not and not like catching punts at the 5-yard line Attempting to catch punts at the 5-yard line dropping it picking it up nearly getting a safety and losing the game. Yeah He got the ball and he got hit really hard. So Good for him for hanging on to that thing. Yeah You know all Michigan fans have Nightmares of the Michigan State game. Yep, maybe almost a decade ago where it's blocked and they return it for a touchdown I mean that was almost that was almost sporty part two at the end of that game against Alabama Can we get some stick them to the Michigan special teams in general like both sides like punters and punter turners alike? Yeah, yeah, I don't know. I'm sure I'm sure someone's always thinking about that They got the Michigan draft now you mentioned that your model has this at Michigan by 3.3 It's currently four and a half. So you said you have no interest in the side right now How much movement would you need to have interest in buying back on the Washington side in this game? Like we do see a lot of late movement. It's only Wednesday right now. So this thing couldn't move before we get to Monday Are you considering it at five five and a half or how much do we need to see this thing move before you? Consider taking a bite at the Washington spread. Yeah, I don't think I'm taking a bite at the Washington spread I mean if anything like gone to head I would actually probably lean towards Michigan. Okay at this number I think the matchups do favor them Yeah, I don't know I mean I there's certainly ways that Washington win I don't want to yeah I don't want to dismiss that but But yeah, I think the market is about right and if anything I think we'll move towards Michigan Well, you said this game does come down to matchups So let's dig in and talk about the matchups here and talk about some player props over at FanDuel Sports Book When you take a look at the prop market with where things stand right now Ed, where is seen value in this game? I Had two props in that and that Texas Washington game and I already talked about CJ Baxter and how I basically thought that was gonna Lose in the first quarter It actually won and the other prop I had in that game is Jalen McMillan over Well, I don't know 81 no 70 some yards 76 and a half is where it was Yeah, 76 and I it actually moved against me at DraftKings and I ended up betting it at 72 and very insulted that it would move against me, but McMillan didn't have a great first half really came back had the touchdown Came pretty close to going over so that was well I mean there was plenty of excitement towards the end of that game for a variety of reasons But McMillan over almost went over that total. I like him to go over again The all these numbers are down compared to where they were in the last game And I think that's appropriate because Michigan's past defense is really good But I do feel like McMillan is the right play over here because They're gonna put their best corner on on Roman Dense and that's probably what they should do But McMillan's total should probably be in the 80s, you know, if he were healthy and had this season that he's capable of I think it would be in the 80s If not in the low 90s, so I do like over for Jalen McMillan basically for the same reasons That I I talked about last week. I think he's a super talented receiver I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in the first round of the NFL draft So, uh, yeah, it's a player prop. I like Could you apply the same logic to Jalen poke because I know that he kind of gets the similar thing where he is Out there quite a bit. He also would benefit if they decided to devote a lot of resources shopping at dunes a Polk's number is 53 and a half Would you consider that with polk or is it more so you like the talent of McMillan enough where you want to ride with him instead? I want to ride with McMillan's talent. I was really hoping polk's number would be in the 80s because of what he did in that game He obviously had that huge first play on the drive It's not, uh, it's it's probably near where it is supposed to be I did not actually go through kind of the game by game his total. So maybe maybe there is some value but last year, you know, we had the situation where Uh, quint Johnson for tcu went nuts against michigan and uh, I believe his total against georgia was it was either Over a hundred or in the 90s. I was really hoping for a similar situation with polk But we're just not going to get it. So, um, yeah, I'm staying away from that. Thank you You had like two catches in that georgia game. I think you had two targets two targets. Yeah two targets in three yards Yeah, that was uh, that was a fun one for sure No sweat under which is always a delight now with mcmillan as well alternate markets here Fandall knows that washington likes chuck at deeps You're not getting like a great number if you look at alt markets But I think the way that washington plays offensively it is conducive to overs or alt markets because it's a lot of Deep pass attempts and and pennix has shown that he's very accurate in those deep throws When to go that way mcmillan can get downfield targets too I Would say looking at fandall's numbers. I don't think there's actually a lot of value in looking at alt markets right now with where they're at Uh, but I think he's the kind of player. We're at at least check to see where things are at But I agree that I think 64 and a half Pretty good number for mcmillan in the receiving yardage number do want to check like Quorum here you talked about how they should be able to run the ball one or one and a half probably seems high enough to scare you off, right? Oh, yeah, for sure. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if he goes over Uh, I do think he's got the ability to break some explosive plays, but you know blake quorum's been uh, You know been lined in the 80s all year and has mostly gone under um I mean I have some confidence, but I I'm Yeah, I'm not I'm not good at that. Yeah, I think that's a high enough number where It's kind of like the what you thought might have a poke where like people see him go nuts in the game before and like, okay Cool, we can go this way, but uh, that's kind of what happened blake quorum. It's opposed to jaylon polk Any final thoughts for you on this game? Ed? Yeah, actually, I just noticed, uh, you know jj was at 18 and a half Earlier it looks like it's gone up on fan duel And this is actually one that I don't like Uh, I definitely liked him over in the semifinal game. I think there's some game scripts where where They're just able to run the ball and they don't need jj to kind of make plays So I I did not like I thought about, you know, jj over 18 and a half yards. Just just like last week Uh, I I don't think it makes as much sense. Just given the game script given Not the game script but the matchups the matchups against this washington defense. So I think, um In michigan's ideal world it gets pretty simple and they they run up the gut a lot Well to your point McCarthy was at I think nine rushing yards for most of that game against alabama and then had a 16-yard rush on that that crucial drive So he got over the 15 and a half, which is where it wasn't when we talked Uh, but it was because they were in push mode and if you don't think they're going to be a push mode for this game It makes a lot of sense to stay away, especially that number has gone up 70 yards from where it was last week I mean they might be in push mode I mean, it's certainly not out of the question right because washington is is a very good football team Especially that offense, but exactly, you know, like, um, you know, jj goes over on on the run and that's exactly How kind of I expected it to work But there's no celebration because sack yards count against quarterbacks in college, right? You're sweating the whole rest of the game. Yeah, my son was next to me. He's like, hey Didn't your jj bet win? I was like, yeah I mean, we're looking good, but he can't get sack and I actually don't think jj took a single sack in that game So that no you didn't I kept refreshing the app because I was like, I was like concerned that I had missed one or something like that But he didn't now So, you know, you do worry about like, oh trying to make a play late and he goes back and trips and um, so uh, but yeah, so just I actually think that's uh Kind of a good lesson if you're betting props out there It's good to check the house rules right on a lot of these props because it's not as simple as a spread I mean, there's kind of no ambiguity about what what's happened What happens when you're betting on the final score of the game, but there can potentially be ambiguity um in uh player props and I actually haven't checked this but I would presume in the nfl like sack yards Don't count against a quarterbacks rushing total and that's because that's what they do in the official stat numbers in the nfl It is different from college They count sacks against the rushing total. So it just keep that in mind Yeah, jared goff finished his college career with negative rushing yards I think should do or sanders have like negative 300 rushing yards this year like because of the way that sacks were counted Uh, you look at his game log. He was like negative 30 negative 30 because he's never ran outside of when he was getting sacked 14 times a game so Uh, it's important to keep that in mind for sure when betting these props and in general knowing the house rules of your respective books is always a wise move That is all that we have here for today for this college football national championship But it should be a very fun game when that does come around on monday before then then we got a lot nfl action So again, make sure you swing back here tomorrow ed is gonna be with us again Break the nfl week number 18 with the key games on tab We'll get his thoughts on texans versus colts bills versus dolphins and much more right here in the feed And of course, tom vecchio breaking down those two games as well prime time tom talking props for those games as well Ed what is going on for you this week over at the power rank? I talked to tage seth of super sports on the football analytics show podcast He actually had a bet on this national championship game. So that should be up by wednesday night and Yeah, check out my sports betting email newsletter Probably no good saturday if you're looking for any action on the weekend is is the service for you So check that out at the power rank dot com And of course that service does run beyond college football season two. That's a year round thing So, uh, even though college football is wrapping up that will still be in action Go to the power rank dot com to find that find ed on twitter at the power rank You can find me on twitter at jim sonnis. I am on threads at jim dot sonnis You can find fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research want to thank you all for tuning in for today Enjoy the game on monday night. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down nfl Week number 18. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network