 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network The NBA has its final slate before the all-star break tonight just a three-game offering But then we have the all-star game festivities coming up this weekend three-point contest Of course, we got Steph versus Sabrina all that going on at this weekend in the NBA So we got Tom Vecchio on for today breaking out his bets across the NBA for tonight and then taking a look forward to this weekend This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and fan dual research. My name is Jim saw this I am a managing editor of digital media for a fan dual research joint here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio Check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one He of course is hosted the daily iso are daily NBA podcast over on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Tom No podcast for you tomorrow to get a little bit of a break Via the all-star breaks. How you doing today? I'm doing good yet. No podcast tomorrow Podcasts next few days the next week, but we do have a very exciting weekend of action Not only the game on Sunday, which of course feature probably no defense But the I would say the skills comps and these you know, the events are far more exciting than the game Do you have a favorite events across all-star weekend? it used to be the slam dunk just because The excitement get the format has changed. They've kind of narrowed down the field Which I don't love it's got to be the three-point just seeing players knock down shots is always great Okay Well, that's the most robust event for a betting perspective too because there are a lot of ways to Handicap that one. So we'll talk about that event later on get Tom's read on the three-point contest and much more You're just one second a first-day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We had dr. 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Hope is here with the gambling helpline ma.org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support of Massachusetts or call 1 8 770 hoping why our text open why in New York now Tom before we get into the all-star break We do have a three game slate for tonight including the Bucks and the Grizzlies on TNT any bets for you in this game for tonight Yeah, let's start off with the Grizzlies player combo Jiren Jackson over 31 and a half points rebounds assist combined sitting a minus 113 This I will say actually before we dive into things for getting to the super nitty gritty details Tonight's slate along with we saw a bit of yesterday Not going to be surprised if some of these star players get ruled out This is something that we've traditionally seen right for the all-star rate given the veterans a little bit of extra day of rest So I'm not going to be surprised to see that happen There is one spot which will get you right after this which I want to jump on early due to that fact So Jaren Jackson over 31 an app pure a Memphis is just riddled with injuries this year So he's now their primary usage player up at 30% offensive uses rate Milwaukee they've been struggling on defense even since dock Rivers took over and their fourth and leading offense a pace Jaren Jackson Jaren Jackson Memphis their 18th and pace so they're playing up in pace. He's their primary usage guy I'm not going to be surprised if it tends to go both sits tonight Should make his rebounding path that much easier. It's something that he's always been good at pushing towards a double-double and there's no reason that he shouldn't be having his normal 25 6 and 3 kind of game tonight is essentially what we should be getting and Maybe playing some against some backups is also what I'm highly anticipating So it sounds like because of the situation the grizzlies are in where playoffs are You know not happy odds. Yeah, they're not happening. Does that allow you to? Feel okay about Jack since they're so dependent on him Or is their playoff positioning concerning to the point where they could sit him or because they don't really need caring about the second Half does that kind of ensure that he'll be out there despite the fact this is the final game before the break Yeah, he's I mean, there's no indication that he will be setting he I mean I wouldn't have them That worry until the end of the season, but he's just out there every night He is just their guy if they wouldn't have anything close to a competent team He has to be out there because he's by far their best player right now So it's just we're rolling with the best option on the worst one of the worst teams in the league But he just has to be out there like hit them not having him out there is like, I don't know if there's Like rules against them being like a non-competitive team or like tanking openly, but that's what borderline what it would be, right? Okay, so Jaren Jackson PRA that over 31 and a half minus 113 is where Tom is going for the bucks and the grizzlies Two more games across the NBA for tonight warriors and jazz wolves and blazers anything stand out to you across those two games Tom that would be with the Warriors and Jonathan Kaminga over 19 and a half points. It's minus 118 Steph Curry has been on fire as of late knocking down Threes at a even higher rate than he normally does They're on the second. I have a back-to-back This is a major concern for me that and dream on green left last night concussion He came back if dream on green and Steph Curry both on plate tonight It's not gonna shock me one bit So the Kaminga line is 19 and a half right now if they get ruled out that line is not gonna be 19 and a half Come six seven o'clock whatever it is. So he is jump coming has really stepped up to be it I'm gonna say a bit of a secondary score for them because Clay Thompson's having a pretty bad year No, according to his standards. So Kaminga would be the primary usage guy If Steph Curry is out. So 19 and a half is probably not gonna stay there even if Hypothetically, this wasn't the game before the all-star break, right? We're dealing with the 239 over under it two teams of top nine leading off as a pace It's a two-point spread. We're still in an awesome game environment objectively even if everyone is fully healthy So you'd be okay with this one even if I told you right now that Curry and Dreymon both play this game. Yeah, totally It's like I'm not worse about Utah's defense in any way even if teams run on back-to-backs They both are on back-to-backs even if that wasn't the case everyone's full rest everything I would still be comfortable with Kaminga pushing over 20 points Okay So that number right now is 19 and a half over as minus 20 team for Kaminga potential that to increase Should get news on Steph and Dreymon, but based on what Thomas saying Kaminga could be a value regardless so across the NBA for tonight It's Jaren Jackson over 31 and a half PRA minus 113 and a Jonathan Kaminga over 19 and a points That is minus 118 now Tom We're gonna look at the actual specific markets for NBA all-star weekend here in a second But if people have not bet these events in the past, you know, given that we've had a lot of states ad legalized betting since then It's you know, black and bright are betting these the first time What should they keep in mind? Anything in terms of process wise to consider before placing bets on these festivities I have been on them before process wise. I would say you know Hardcore stats like don't matter as much. It's obviously The event obviously has a ton going on so just because if you look at like the three-point contest You can't just say oh this player has the highest three point percent this year He's the best shooter. There's obviously a lot of extra factors going into it So process wise, I think we need to take that down It's similar to the home run derby like objectively the best home run hitter isn't always going to win The whole I have to consider like their weight and stuff like that for the home run derby, which is annoying Like that's not a stat. That's the number right like these players swinging 30 times and max strength is not something that we normally see So, you know, and then players like oh just because he's having it down here in three point He's obviously being contested on three points So there's so much going into it so process wise we have to scale back like the actual hardcore stats If you want to take into account that oh, maybe someone's in there their home city They're playing in that's something you could do but again that we can't really quantify that every single time, right? so I would say scale back your units in terms of how much you're betting and Just understand that this is a fan event There's there's hype around everything so keep that in mind and the amounts of concentration players put into it Will vary pretty wildly because of that stuff you mentioned so I think in general there's a lot more uncertainty So it is wise like you said to lower your overall unit allocation and stuff like that in order to account for the fact This is a this is more so just for fun. So you mentioned you like three-point contest Let's take a look at that now over at fangirls sportsbook Damian Lillard is a favorite He has plus 370 followed by Tyrese Halber and a plus 440 any value for you in the outright markets for this three-point contest So there's no value on Dame. He's also having a pretty tough year from three He's still taking a ton of shots, but it's not as good this the event this weekend is in Indianapolis So Halliburton is on his home court We have to do account for that For me the value would be actually going all the way to the bottom with Donovan Mitchell at plus 950 because You know, we're accounting for this variance. We're accounting for Something that's uncertain. So I don't want to be going to the shortest odds I want to go into a player that we know can hit shots and again Just because he hits it at this rate and a player is hitting it 2% higher doesn't really matter We know the caroling town is actually very good So Donovan Mitchell would be my number one and Jalen Brunson would be my number two and that's where I want to be starting because again I'm gonna be shooting for a quarter-unit play Whatever might be on players that obviously knocked down plenty of threes to begin with and I also like the fact that he's Arrival home court that he maybe want to be playing spoiler a little bit So I'm again, I'm taking in the fun aspect into it as well Yeah, Donovan Mitchell plus 950 right now Brunson is seven to one. What leads you to Mitchell there? I know obviously the long odds are obviously pretty enticing and he's had a good year overall Willing to take some three-pointers pretty good three-point shooter in general What is the key thing that puts Mitchell over the top for you to make him your favorite bet here? He's just a player that I think he's ready for the spotlight and in terms of being a star And he's always kind of embraced it when he was in Utah and now he's in Cleveland and I I just like the odds the most point There's really nothing more to it than that that I don't want to be taking you know big man like caroling towns I don't want to be dropping down taking what should be the favorite of Lillard or Halliburton So I'm just going for the most plus money at this point. Okay, so that's Mitchell at plus 950 Brunson is seven to one. What puts you on him as being your secondary option here It's I think he's just going a little bit overlooked like if he was at five to one It wouldn't be that good, but he has been the main offensive carry for the Knicks I also love the fact that he was snubbed from being an all-star starter and After that he has been on fire unbelievable scoring So if we fold that into it's like hey, he wants to prove that he can win an MBA three-point contest He should have been an all-star starter. Let's roll with that narrative as well The best narrative is an angry player narrative and you see it in the NBA all the time post all-star Starters announcements. So Jill and Brunson carrying their revenge against the voters all the way into this contest. Yes Okay, now. It's not just the winning market for the three-point contest. There's also like 16,000 other markets you could bet on for the three-point contest So after parsing through those time anything stand out as being a value to you Yeah for me I'm gonna be still rolling with Donovan Mitchell round one score over 19 and a half because that's what he would need to advance so Regardless of who you're interested in like if you like Trey young at five and a half to one You should also be interested in his round one score, right? You should also be interested in some of the alt markets of him to hit What is it 20 plus 22 plus 24 plus because if you think he can win He obviously has to have this amount in order to advance if you look back at winning scores over the past few years We're generally sitting around mid to high 20s of 26 27 28 maybe 29 So if you like him to advance he can't have not 18 17 made threes and advanced to the second round That's not gonna happen. So regardless of who you're interested in you should probably correlate with the round one score And you should probably continue to sprinkle quarter unit tenth of the unit whatever you're doing on a 22 plus 24 plus score as well Okay, so Looking at the alternate markets here for the first round Right now Mitchell plus 135 to get to 22 plus points to get to 24 plus points Mitchell is at plus 240 But the 19 and a half minus 130 It is that is a lot of juice to lay on that So if you're looking at these markets Do you prefer to go with the minus 130 or do you want to go more so with the alt markets? Mitchell or is it a ladder situation? It's a ladder situation because if I'm ultimately betting on him to win He's going to need to accomplish x y and z in order to get there So I'm fine with minus 130 like that. That's just me. I yeah Value sure values value. So I wouldn't play past there though But again, it's it's just back that I'm correlating his win And if he does win, he's going to accomplish all these things along the way Okay, so Mitchell is also plus 410 to get 26 plus points in the first round So consider a ladder situation with Donovan Mitchell across the first round But also especially if you are into him from an outright perspective to win this event at plus 950 Lot of other events going on this weekend Tom any other bets you like across the all-star festivities It would be if we go to the Dung contest and it's a long the same situation if you think a player can win you should be looking to his Score, you know that he's going to be advancing Mac McClung to repeat as champion is minus 190. I Actually don't think I have the dumb contest here in Illinois. Okay, so Mac McClung is minus 190 for dumb contest Jalen Brown is plus 420 Jacob Toppin is plus 600 Jaime Hock as is plus 650 so minus 190 To win an all-star event in any sport to me is crazy I'm never gonna but something that is this much variance I'm never gonna lay that kind of price But if you do like him to repeat you should just be looking at his total score over Or if you like another player to when you should be looking at their total first round score over so it's the same situation as with the three-point contest if you think Jaime Hock has the long shot is going to be advancing well then him having Over 92 and a half as his first round is required for him to advance in theory So that's that's the route that I would go if you like the long shots correlated with their first round scores as well okay, and Hock has plus 650 you think he has a juice to overcome McClung here or is that more of a More of a step too far for you. It's probably step too far. The realistic answer is Jalen Brown. Yeah, the really he's shown his ability You know Mac McClung is he's ultimately like a g-league up and down kind of guy Yeah, he's not a tremendous thongy. So I mean you want to make safe. It's sick. Yeah. Yeah, but you know laying Laying one minus 190 is insane, right? So I would never do that for a Homer and Derby or any type of contest So, you know Jalen Brown I think is the realistic answer and as the event goes on I don't know if they'll have round two scores or wherever my head-to-head for the score situation But if you're on board with Brown just roll with him each step along the way Yeah, so Jalen Brown plus 420 right now Brown's first round score over 94 and a half is minus 114 and of course you can Keep checking on him as the event goes along as well. So just in general what Tom was saying there is Try to find correlated markets to the situations in which you think that a a player is a value and identify Are there other ways I could bet this person in addition to potentially betting their outright? So I think that just makes a lot of sense not just for the all-star weekend And then real quick for the all-star game MVP if you have that market, I do I had to look back door Change the URL to get it to be Connecticut to show the all-star. I don't know. I can't bet the dunk contest here But I don't think I can so My theory on all-star game especially in the NBA is do not want veteran players They often defer they've been there 10 times 12 times whatever is they deferred to some younger players to show You know to show their skill so there's two options one from the east one from the west from the east Tyrese Halliburton 16 to 1 on his home court. Okay, right? We can play into the narrative hair Halibur has been great this year. He's constantly piling up 12 14 Assist it seems like every single game. He's also in the three-point contest. We know he can score He's been pulling up from half court. He's gonna be throwing al-Youps He's gonna be dropping 20 and 12 2015 because the game's gonna have 300 points Right because that's like 360 add a total of 360 Halibur having 30 and 15 is actually not that crazy based on the game environment So Haliburton from the east and then right next to him in the West would be SGA shake Ilgis Alexander because he's also a player that is I think he's plus 250 right now to win the MVP He's the second or third when it comes to the overall season MVP. So he's having a great year He's a player that can also score can also pile up the assist. He knocked down shots from half court So don't go with LeBron. Don't go with the tennis combo. They've done this before LeBron deferring to some of the younger stars is something that we have seen actually over the past few years and I actually have interest in LeBron points under, you know It tends to come both points under the rant points under some of those if we get those lines for the actual game That's where I want to be going Okay, so we're buying into the young guys buying the home court narrative with Haliburton the 16 to 1 and SGA 14 to 1 To win the all-star game MVP sounds like it should be a pretty fun weekend out there in India Right. Yeah starts off and then like the skills comp These are these are a little bit too much to dig into the players the rising stars game actually on it's on Friday night That actually should be the most competitive game Okay Is where the probably the best viewing experience will be and then Sunday will have 400 points or whatever and then What draws you towards the rising stars game? It's just like the young players. They're there to prove some of them are the G league ignite players So they're gonna be like this is just their their showcase You know to take their first step into stardom. Yeah, okay, so that is on a Friday 8 p.m. 9 p.m. Eastern for the rising stars tournament, which should be a fun one as well Should be the weekend overall obviously Daytona 500 first But we'll talk about the NBA all-star festivities number two on that list That is Tom Vecchio make sure you check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one find his work on the daily ice every week Day on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and of course find Tom over on Fandor research Tom a pleasure as always Enjoy the all-star weekend. Thanks for having me. All right You can find me on Twitter at Jim Sonnis You can find me on threads at Jim dots on us and check out Fandor research on Twitter at Fandor research back once again tomorrow Breaking that's VPL and some more NASCAR stuff. We'll talk to all of you that this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network