 Okay, it is Tuesday the 6th of April of 2021 and I hope everyone had a good Easter long weekend If you're based in the UK in Europe, if you're in the US, hello and welcome back And before I begin just to say happy birthday to Tim Duggan and it's the big 4-0 today So Tim, I will speak to you shortly in the Amplify Live community But I hope you had a great weekend and many happy returns But getting straight into things what I want to do with the briefing today Is really just get you up to speed and what happened in US markets yesterday Which were open albeit still relatively light volume before then the full reopening of the global Market coming back in today and then just have a quick look at what's in store for the week ahead as well But to get you up to speed then starting off with the close on Wall Street last night Which was a very positive one as you can see here by the plethora of green across the board The only kind of weak spots were energy where oil prices did decline like in yesterday's session We do trade albeit. We have recovered. We did trade below a 58 handle yesterday We're back up towards a 59-32 price at the moment in front month WTI futures But as you can see here really the tech space Outperformed, you know some of the tech giants like Google or Alphabet were up in excessive 4% You might have read of a US Supreme Court ruling that the company did not commit copyright infringements when it used Oracle programming code in its Android Operating system was the chief reason we're underpinned the share price rise in alphabet shares yesterday Facebook moved up to record high for the stock Tesla was up about four point four three percent The first chance for the company to react to their blowout delivery numbers in Q1. They were around 184 185,000 against expectations around 170,000 so much stronger than expected The the rally generally as well coming after some really quite spectacular data starting to come through in the US To get you up to speed I'll go in chronological order if you weren't around on Good Friday Then US electronic trade was open for a shortened session We did see the release of US non-farm payrolls And as you can see here the headline print came out at 916,000 expectations worth of 647,000 for that figure so it was much stronger than expectations And as you can see here puts us back up at a multi-month high from numbers We haven't really printed going back to the summer of last year and then yesterday What did we have we had the ISM non manufacturing PMI the services figure came in at 63.7 against expected 59 so again blowout of forecasts and Experienced the fastest growth on record in March as measures of business activity and orders advanced to new highs as well Main real reason that underpinning this is not really new information to everyone The idea of better weather we've had positive vaccine news for distribution of the drug as well And that subsequently leading to the reopening of the US economy, which is eating to greater US job growth more spending So on and so forth so that idea of This kind of economic boom almost is going to happen in in the coming months starting to materialize somewhat But that does lead dead on to an interesting path or a communication challenge That ultimately will need to be met by the Federal Reserve That's going to be well if we do have this rip roaring recovery Well, then at what point the the Fed start to change their language from this ultra-competitive stance Which they've stuck to despite yields having risen I must say yields in the 10 year have backed off a little bit from kind of up there at 1.75 we're just below the 1.7 level at the moment So equities were really positive yesterday The yield actually declining a little bit just allowing t-notes to come off the floor and the dollar really got hit Which did accelerate boost the their major currency pairs in yesterday's session as the general positive sentiment As I said that the Fed will be interesting the months ahead because ultimately, you know, do they need to pay heed at some point to the idea of That the economy is improving now One speaker that did speak yesterday, I think it was a CMDC interview that I thought was quite interesting was Fez Mester Messler said that better than expected March payroll report with great But a lot more progress was needed to get the economy where it was before the pandemic She added I think we'll need to be very deliberately patient in our approach to monetary policy and really focus in on hitting these goals Where we have monetary policy, I'm thinking that we'll see a very strong second half the year But we're still far from our policy goals Now a couple of things here for one Mester is a non-voting member However, one of the things I would say is that you know, if you know your your FMC members Then Mester here a non-voter so unboldened, but it's one of the most hawkish of the Fed members only probably George and Kaplan more so and That I thought was quite interesting the fact that she's continued to push back some of this economic acceleration that we're seeing Ultimately, I think mark rates markets will start to bring forward In what you would be expecting is continuation of these really firm narrative on the reopening trade Actually materializing and economic data in the months going forward as we continue to reopen all things remaining equal in the US so rates markets will probably continue to bring forward interest rate rises, but You know not forgetting that although these numbers are really fantastic The Fed doplops that we saw not that long ago did say that economic kind of GDP would be around six and a half percent at the end of the year so How surprising is this? Not too surprising. I guess what needs watching at the moment is What point then do we see these these numbers if they continue to really surprise on the upside by a large Gap in a positive way and that just continues on indicative then of growth perhaps being even further than six and a half percent by the end of the year and we're not going to see this for a number of months, but if that were the case well then That's going to be then an interesting challenge to be met for for the Federal Reserve But at the moment as you can see for markets and certainly coming off yesterday's session You've just got an almost again a Goldilocks environment where the markets content and happy to see economic improvements that are happening in the US and Willing to then just see that in the backdrop of the Fed at the moment Just keeping a fairly loose stance to policy for the time being so without any change on the latter Then it's kind of all gravy for equities for the moment direction wise and you know Just looking at the S&P from when I left the market on Thursday to when I turned on my screens this morning So we're up now the high in the future is at 40 74 and a half quite incredible really and The other thing to mention then and a few others was in the overnight age of pack session Things were a little bit more sour. I would say to mixed I think the Aussie market outperformed you did have the RBA you keep their cash rate and their three-year yield target unchanged At 0.1% as expected they maintain parameters of their QE program The board said they remain committed to maintaining highly accommodative policy until their goals were met But focusing on China you're looking here at the services PMI We had the case in number overnight came in at fifty four point three against expectations of fifty two point ones That was better than expected However, we're broadly speaking Chinese equity markets were lower after the back of a release of a report Suggesting then that China central bank does asked the nation's major lenders to curtail Loan growth for the rest of the year after a surge in the first two months has stoked bubble risks According to people familiar with the matter so That was really what caught the attention in the local domestic market overnight and was a bit of an overhang for the age of Pacific session Far as the European Open is concerned Obviously we're playing with a catch up given the closures that we observed on Easter Mondays and that's gapped up quite aggressively as you can see here We've seen some initial test here at the R2 exactly There's some profit-taking back down to literally back to where we reopened Before we've had another push here. I've just gone through 7 a.m. Now as I'm recording this here in London Quick update on COVID what's going on there a few things to mention First off before I talk about the US on my screen here the UK government has confirmed restaurants pubs and shops Will reopen as England's lockdown is eased next week obviously on Monday April 12th next substantial marker in that four-step road plan The ban on foreign travel may remain remain for a little longer though as what the PM said last night So nothing particularly too new or shocking there On the US side of things new cases of COVID-19 cases in the US rose 5% more than 450,000 last week and if you remember from my kind of first day of the week briefings up delivered the last three weeks This is in fact the third week in a row now the infections in the US have Risen I did see some charts. It's very kind of state oriented oriented Michigan was one that's really rocketed More recently, but definitely Constitutes keeping an eye on however Equally so though for a sixth week vaccinations in the US have set a record By the numbers at the moment to give you some context an average of 3.1 million shots given per day last week As of Sunday, 32% of the population has received at least one dose and 19% have been fully vaccinated according to the CDC Elsewhere on a global level one country that's getting quite a few headlines at the moment in the emerging markets is that of India India which who of course are the world's largest vaccine manufacturer and particularly important flights to the UK through serum It's going to be quite key because the do they need to really take care of their Domestic situation which is getting materially worse at this present point in time as are their neighboring countries in Pakistan and Bangladesh Right now before they can then start to service other Orders from external on a global level, but India is recording the highest number of new cases in the world As it struggles to contain this latest surge in infections, but did read one quite interesting thing at the weekend This idea although the dollars being softy yesterday a little bit weaker this morning An interesting idea about the disconnect or the disjointed reopening trade that we're going to see globally Nothing particularly new here, but it was always going to likely be the case that developed world We're going to be able to have the money to finance then the Obtainment of vaccines to roll them out and probably get more money to spend on Infrastructure and so on to be able to get people administered But at the moment if you're seeing the US Quite a firm reopening an economic boom Whereas in the likes of India we're seeing a wave that's even more Aggressive now than we've ever seen before then obviously although both these countries will end up in the same place ultimately in the interim period You know could there be quite a Divergence there between more positive obviously fundamental catalyst Driving US assets comparative to emerging markets, which are going to lag for the foreseeable future Then a quick look at the the economic calendar for this week. It is actually pretty quiet overall You've got yesterday's session was was probably most interesting in terms of from a data perspective To some degree, excuse me But going into today's session is pretty quiet There's nothing really too major to look out for so really just Waiting UK Europe to get their feedback under the table and really digest and react to some of the positive catalysts that we're driving US markets and sentiment yesterday So just keeping an eye on equities. I mean as I speak the Dax futures coming back right back up to the initial Reopening of electronic trade overnight high And if we see a continuation of those trends Then you're seeing a third real test now up and around just above 139 20 and cable Which is that level we hit yesterday as per the double top in the euro is not too far off as well at the moment Wednesday we get the service PMI numbers But these are final readings not looking for too much there But do note then we get the FMC minutes, which will be published on Wednesday evening We've got feds Evans feds Kaplan feds Barkin discussing monetary policy and economy on the latter And then Thursday you get the ECB minutes You get the weekly jobless claims and Fed chair Jerome Powell takes part in the IMF panel on the global economy That's one of the main speeches of the week and then going into Friday Chinese inflation metrics will be seen overnight So we'll have those to digest when we come in in the morning and then otherwise. What is a fairly quiet session? There after and that is it. So I haven't really talked about the charts too much But that's because I'm going to leave it to the team Sam Tim and the others to go through that in the discord room on amplify live So hopefully I'll see you guys on there If you're watching this on YouTube as ever, thank you very much for watching If you're not a subscriber to the channel, please do hit that subscribe button Hit the bell icon to be notified whenever any of these briefings go out on a daily basis. All right guys, welcome back and Good luck for the session ahead. Thanks very much