 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network Big weekend across college football with a couple of huge games in the SEC and who better to preview those than Colin Wilson of the action that we're going to talk to him today to get his read on Kentucky at Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas and more across week five in college football This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire.com My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joined here as I am each Wednesday by Dr Ed Fang you can find his work at the powerink.com and find Ed on Twitter at the powerink and we are on to week number five How you doing today? I'm doing pretty well still wondering about how Brian Harston managed to not get fired last week in one of the most incredible games that I've ever seen I turned it on and and Yeah, the man lives to coach another week after Missouri misses a field goal pretty a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation and then Dropped the ball right before crossing the goal line in overtime that would have won so it just an incredible incredible end and I'm still not sure Brian Harston is gonna last that much longer But I'm sure I guess I'll have something to say about that Yeah, just a very normal year for Auburn. Nothing weird has gone on this entire time Just having a normal one as always the guest you alluded to is Colin will so you can find him on Twitter at Underscore Colin one and check out all of his work at the action network where he is a senior writer Colin sure you got thoughts unleash him here. Which what you got going? I think in the time that I've had my job at action network Auburn's had like 10 head coaches That program and you know the Brian Harston where I'm we're about to see him enter the transfer portal the same way We saw Hank Bacmeyer enter the transfer portal Auburn's just a mess right now It seems like it's about this time of year where they're looking at buyouts already I think our writing was really on the wall last year They fired their wide receiver coach like three weeks into the season Derrick Mason quietly leaves town goes to still water Nobody talks about it So I think all those things are final and then the offseason drama, which could not be proven So we won't talk about it, but right, you know, I think that's a team that is Quickly on their way to the bottom of the SEC West Yeah, we're gonna talk plenty of SEC on the show for today. We're gonna talk about some pretty big games at what you got Oh, I was just gonna say but it's interesting to me because the bottom of the SEC West could still mean a top 30 team Yeah Yeah, he's still gonna get canned but might have a top 30 team or whoever takes over That's how competitive it is bad vibes across the board from Auburn Trying to you know factor that in more and more bad vibes over at Auburn for sure We're gonna break down a couple big games across this week in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast daily shows here Each weekday NFL preview coming up tomorrow And we also have our NFL prop betting preview coming up on Friday Get all those right as they're posted by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts And also checking out these shows on the FanDuel YouTube page Twisted T and FanDuel have joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series Gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars and site credit Introducing twisted T's college football picks a sports betting focused contest series That's entirely free to play the contest is simple each college football game will be assigned Moneyline spread and total markets with assigned points each market To do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct Selection you may that the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of site credit Head to fandal.com slash twisted T picks and make your picks fandal.com Slash twisted T picks and make your picks again reminder, please drink Responsibly now Colin each week over on the action network you put a piece up that analyzes performance and key metrics and Outline what that means for that week's betting markets and kind of get the takeaways from those numbers So I want to ask you what are those key numbers you're focusing on and why do you believe? Those are important when trying to make good college football bets I think the interesting thing is is on Sundays odds makers just simply adjust to power rating They put it up on the board They look at who their sharp players are at that book if they respect the money they move it They don't go into in-depth about how is this offense actually doing and how is this defense doing? And I have said this before like the five factors turned in to be the Bible of college football because odds makers don't use them at all So things like success rate finishing drives explosiveness those are the most important things in college football and they I integrate them into total so when I look at spreads I just don't even look at that because like I've said a power rating is based on the closing number the closing number is paramount to odds Makers so you have to get your power rating close to that But when you look at things like totals like there's a reason bowling green is four and out of the over right now It's because they score more than four points every time They cross the 40 and they allow more than four points every time a team crosses the 40 So those you know five factors that have been around forever that were written a football study hall They are uber important and if you can find a way to you know Have those numbers available to make your own power ratings in your own totals before the market goes and hits them because Yeah, I got news for you a lot of sharp guys out there that have lots of big wallets They have two or three reasons why they want to make a bed But it's not as deep and as analytical as the five factors So if you can get a leg up on that and beat the market you're gonna do pretty well Yeah, what are you When are you running your numbers so you have your own numbers for each each total for each spread Are you getting those done Saturday night? Are you working ahead? You know on Fridays, you know How are you getting that before all that sharp money comes in? Yeah So my power ratings are on action ever calm those are adjusted the second games are done So yes, my Saturday starts at 11 a.m. It doesn't end till Hawaii's done about two But those numbers are done They get scraped and thrown into our action app But then the totals I have to wait for a number of different sources and like I've you know learned how to scrape I've learned how to use import HTML I've learned how to access API's and get all of that into one spot so that immediately on Sunday morning I know everybody seconds per play. I know what everybody's doing in the red zone versus, you know beyond the 40 And I could give you their profile with you know, you could I could do it in my sleep But it's because you have to pull all these things and scrape all this data And sometimes I'm at the mercy of when those, you know data sites want to actually publish their stuff So there's one I won't mention them by hand. They don't publish anything till Tuesday and critical information So I have to wait till Tuesday to actually get things like stuff rate in line yards Where I actually trust it, but that's you know, essentially Building team profiles for all of them is critical when openers come out This is are your updates to your power ratings in your totals are they all automated or are you going in in each game and saying oh Well, the quarterback hurt in the middle of the game. So I need to make this adjustment Yeah, the totals are all completely automated There is nothing coming out of my brain or my hands that adjust the totals because to me Those are all based on tempo and how you do when you're in scoring position or what you allow when you're in scoring position but From a power rating perspective those are all done because of what I see in the box score because you know I'll read post-game win expectancy and I know that SP plus takes post-game win expectancies and adjusts a team's power rating based on that There's other factors that go into that too But for me, I have to land at the closing number of where the books were even though a number I don't believe in and I don't think it's right That is the number That's the true number that Vegas thinks it is and if I don't get close to that with my power ratings Then I'm gonna be wrong on the following week those two teams I'm gonna make bad bets so while I would love turn the power rating aspect into like an automated thing where it just Kind of spits it out like Sagan That's not how it works like if I'm not close to the odds makers. I'm gonna be wrong. I'm gonna make bad bets Yeah, so that's all super interesting like how involved get to be with that process to make sure You are getting the correct number because it's that's a lot of work across college football So let's talk to some games here and talk about them for week number five here We're Kentucky at Ole Miss Ole Miss six and a half point favorite here total is 53 and a half and both these teams off to a Good start Kentucky got the win over Florida, but entering conference play here for Ole Miss How do you see this game playing out here Colin? Yeah, I was pretty heavy on Tulsa last week Tulsa 21 and a half They had one of the best passing attacks in the nation and I know everybody's gonna point to schedules and stuff But this Ole Miss team I said this in the summer. This is not what Lane Kiffin wants They run at a 65% clip. They're running way too much There's not a lot of belief in what they're doing at the quarterback position To do a Mac Corral did last year to be able to run the zone read to be able to check the defense to be able To throw downfield. We're not seeing a lot of that out of Ole Miss now that being said Tulsa was able to expose them in a Very sleepy spot and overhead look at look look spot The Ole Miss offense is going to be able to take advantage of Kentucky because that Kentucky front right now is not stopping anybody from the rushing perspective You know, they're gonna have success running the ball Which they do 65% of the time Kentucky's 57th in line yards Which means when they're supposed to defend a certain, you know, two or three yards on a running play They're not getting it done. And so I expect the Ole Miss offensive line to have plenty of success here And I do I understand why the reason the total is trickling down because people are starting to figure out that Ole Miss is a run-first team like we all think of highlights and and DK Metcalf, you know grabbing things one handed out of the air, but that's just not what they are anymore without Mac Corral That's a huge disadvantage for Kentucky who can't defend the run right now And then on the other side of the ball Kentucky's not running the ball well themselves And that's the one place you can attack Ole Miss Like I expect in the future teams like Arkansas to give Ole Miss all kinds of problems because they have such a heavy ground attack But that's not what Kentucky has right now, you know, Smoke Vossier and Chris Rodriguez all that They're not getting any any yards after contact. They're not having any explosive runs And that's the big weakness from the Ole Miss defense and it's just not gonna get exposed. So I'm gonna take Kentucky. I know it's the total's moved up I'm sorry the total's gone down the spreads gone up, but I still believe Ole Miss is gonna cover the number Is it just because that bad match that you talked about with the matchups Kentucky not being able to exploit the key weaknesses Yeah, when you can't exploit the key weaknesses It kind of you're gonna have a lot of possessions by the other team and you know That's just not gonna work out well for Kentucky and the reason why Kentucky was so successful against Florida Is because they run a zone defense and they can always have their eyes on Anthony Richardson And they're a good tackling team like that's really important when you have Louisville's and you have you know Quarterbacks that are dual threats and out in space. You can't tackle them if you have a really high tackle grade like per PFF That means you can tackle one-on-one which PFF calls a stop And if you don't have that then you're gonna be in trouble against a dual-threat quarterback Awesome comments move on in the next game as your Arkansas are raising backs hosting Alabama Arkansas is coming off a really tough loss with the field goal attempt that don't excel off the the top of The field goal post. I'm sure there's something wrong with the field goal post at Jerry world though, right? We can blame it on that Jerry Jones Post considering Jerry Jones was on the 1964 national championship team at Arkansas You think that he would have moved that field goal post up like another six inches to get that field goal across But no it didn't work out for Cam little, you know, and it was just a brute not only was out of brutal play that whole KJ Jefferson Dive that Superman dive. There's so many things wrong With that play first off. It was first and goal. Why are we running quarterback dive on first and goal from the four yard line, right? I mean, this was a Michael Jordan slam dunk attempt here how far he was trying to die and You know, I think that really highlights what's going on with KJ Jefferson right now. He is carrying the ball more It's because the running back stable is a little bit more depleted than it was last year and he's fumbling the ball a lot more I thought the problems were gonna be the loss of trail on Birks and finding somebody on third downs or just finding targets in general His passing game is not dropped off whatsoever from a big-time throw from a turnover worthy from an adjusted completion He's the same as he was last year. There's been no drop off without trailing Birks but his running he is fumbling at a higher pace than he ever has and Pippman came out this week and said well, that's because he's just trying to do too much And we need to take the pressure off of him and it helps the Dominic Johnson's in the backfield And that's gonna help Raheem Sanders, but this is a really bad team Against Alabama and I know there's stuff floating out there about how Arkansas is gonna, you know, give them a scare Arkansas can potentially beat them Bryce young on the road is never like won by more than six points against anybody in a true road game And there's just there's all this narrative and noise and junk out there Let me tell you what's really going on the Arkansas secondary is horrible. They are outside the top 100 in coverage They are a hundred and twenty first in the nation and tackling that's bottom 10 And if you can't tackle and you got Jacory Brooks or Jermaine Burton coming from the slot You're gonna miss those tackles and and yes, Arkansas did get Miles slusher back But that's one of the eight guys of very Odum is gonna drop back into coverage So if Arkansas can't defend explosive passing and they can't do one-on-one tackling I think it goes to savings presser on Monday when he said we Philosophically have a way that we're going to attack defenses this week We thought that Vanderbilt could be beat with us with we spread them out and stretch the field and that's exactly what happened Well, all he's got it all saving has to do is look at that Missouri State Tape We're Bobby Petrino through the ball 10 times more than he rushed to the ball and had huge success doing it And it looked like a pinball game there were just Arkansas defenders bouncing off Missouri State wide receivers and if Saban sees even five minutes of that clip Alabama is gonna come out throwing like crazy And you would think that's gonna be the plan because if you go and look at what happened last year Arkansas kept that game really close Could have conceivably won that game down at Tuscaloosa and shocked everybody But why was that it was because Alabama ran Brian Robinson, Jr. Like 40 times that game he tried to do a ground-and-pound against a ground-and-pound team That's not gonna work here. And I know that's what Arkansas wants to do They want to get in the trench. They want to beat you up They want to make it a bruising game and the only way for Alabama to avoid that is to get two touchdowns up early and force Arkansas and KJ Jefferson to throw into coverage That's the game plan I would have and Saban is much smarter than me So I don't like this Arkansas game whatsoever. It is a huge spread. It's inflated It should be lower every power rating the system in the world says it should be 14 or lower But at the same time you have to respect the market There's zero dollars and zero cents that is really making that number come back to 17 Everybody's blown through 17. The sharpest books out in Vegas are up at 18 right now. So I I've seen enough from the field. I've seen enough from the market. I'm gonna tuck all my razor big razor back stuff away and pounding this weekend so So what's the best route for taking advantage of the bad mismatch in fear of Alabama? Is that the total? Is that a team total over? Is it the spread? What's the best route for you? It's hefty I think the Alabama team total I think is at 39 and a half. Yeah, hefty and they scored 42 Like I said last year they went all ground and pound scored 42 Arkansas, you know gave up a billion points in Missouri State I don't think it's that high of a price to hit Alabama team total over 39 and a half Considering the pace they want to go where they're going to attack the fact that Arkansas is also terrible in finishing drives on defense Uh, I think an Alabama team total is probably better than trying to sweat some sort of backdoor cover from Arkansas down by 27 Okay, so the team total there 39 and a half for Alabama potentially being the best route there Take advantage of the mismatch that Collins sees. I hope for your your sake. Maybe not for your wallet's sake But for your like fandom sake that it's uh better than forecasted It's an emotional hedge, right? You all right college, right? And you're like, oh, Alabama won. I'm rich but man My team lost I'm getting paid for my sadness right now. And you know what I can live with that I get that for sure. Absolutely. Let's talk here about NC State at Clemson right now Clemson six and a half point favorite total is 39 and a half and when I went to your action network profile, Colin I saw like 16,000 unders related to weather for this weekend because Hurricane Ian is going to be in the southeast Over this weekend and that's gonna play a role most likely in this game NC State at Clemson total down to 39 and a half and you grabbed the under when it was 45 and a half earlier on this week But what about the other markets? How does the the bad or potentially bad weather for this game impact your view Of the rest of this game total aside Yeah, I think a lot of people The average gambler would look at precipitation or just the fact that there's a storm and think that there's an under coming And a lot of people have that misconception when it comes to snow I think in action network we put out a snow particle every year. It's like the overcash is like 75 of the time and we call it a snow over You know, so it's like people have these misconceptions about weather really. What's important is the wind Anything that's like above 20 to 25 miles an hour sustained winds Is really important now you have to go find the cross orientation wind design of some of these stadiums Like I know at Arkansas it goes from one end zone to another end zone But there are some where it goes across sideline to sideline and that's going to affect passers that aren't very strong in the arm That's going to affect the kicking game and that's going to affect the total And with a lot of these hurricanes it was more of early in the week It's by the way, I don't think these hurricanes ever hit on monday. It seems like they always hit on friday But uh With these with these hurricanes like you got to be ahead of the forecast You got to be ahead of the market and if you miss it you miss it, right? You're just going to have to deal with it Don't take a bad number But once you get to this point in the week later in the week and some of these have moved like 10 points Now you go back and you actually assess the game that the market has moved and you've got this great spot to get to You know to try to Double up here and get a nice little window. So what you have to do is ask yourself How much is the wind and the weather going to affect it? Okay, are there going to be wind gusts over 30 miles an hour? Is there going to be a sustained wind over 20 if the answer is no get out? And I did that this morning with a couple of games like the state of Virginia is not going to see a lot of wind Get out of those before the market finds out as far as nc state Clemson And a couple others out there coastal carolina comes to mind Now you've got to actually assess the game and nc state Clemson is one of those games where You know 40 i'm watching the number heavy 39 and a half 40 41 is key Uh, you know 38's key if if I can get to one of those I will take it over and why is that? It's because they're ground-based attacks like Clemson's bread and butter is dj ui ungulele Running the ball up the gut and being a power back You know doing his best kj jefferson impersonation As for nc state I think it's really bad for them because the way to attack Clemson awake showed it was to get into that secondary So with that wind it's going to be a more of a problem for the wolf pack To attack there and they don't have much of a running game going on right now And plus I couldn't even believe this when I looked it up nc state's tackling Is 111 and for all this love that I've even put out this summer about what tony gibson is doing as defensive coordinator for This wolf pack defense they are not tackling well whatsoever So I think the weather plays into Clemson But at the same time this is one that i'm going to buy back on from the hurricane perspective with the total Because it's a ground-based attack from Clemson you go and you look at coastal carolina what grace mccall does with that team He runs the triple option on the ground. I don't care if the wind is 20 I don't care if the wind is 50. He's running a triple option on the ground. It doesn't matter So that's another one of those games where i'm going to buy out But like I said if it's an air attack between two teams it absolutely matters So 39 and a half you think is is a fair point to bite then you you're not going to wait hold that hope for a 38 or I seriously doubt it's going to get to 38. I do want to come back I think 45 and a half is the number that I have 41 is very key like that would be the over You know that you would want to get to But now sit around a 39 and a half I'm kind of thinking like hey does anybody else want to go in and drive this down a little bit further Because I'll take it at a point that I could get right right so it's important like as I talked about knowing your key numbers in totals It's also important that you have a work life balance and now don't stare at the screen all week So you need to find a way to spell it line watcher Yeah, I don't you have to find a way to set up a line watcher So that if a number does hit at a certain book like you get a notification in your text Because some of us have kids and have to go pick them up at school and then bam There's that 38 and I've been waiting to hit the over on that so Uh like I said this week's been a lot of fun as a meteorologist a financial analyst all kinds of things Well, I want to ask you about the weather quick because obviously this week is unique We don't always have hurricanes where we know super far ahead of time At what point do you view the forecast as being sticky because like I start to look pretty early in the week and Most of the time it does hold But like it can change. Uh, so what are you viewing the forecast as being? Actionable from your perspective. Yeah, so for people that don't know I live in the state of Oklahoma The national weather service is right down i-44 from me And there's a reason they're here in the state of oklahoma is because every tornado in the world starts in the state through i-44 Um, so knowing that 36 hours in advance You're absolutely locked into whatever the forecast is but generally 48 hours is when you can start making a termination from everything that they put out there Uh, and most of the time they're not wrong. So the you don't want to wait too long Uh, like I was going to wait until thursday morning to shore these up But considering the hurricane ian forecast was like we're not going to be in the state of virginia whatsoever on saturday I was like, well, I better get out of those so 36 hours is really your last chance 48 hours is probably good too Collin does uh, does clumps and miss brent venables on the defense set of all There's a lot of misses. There's a lot of people missing each other right now first off brent venables misses having a linebacker like james scowsky And clings and misses having uh brent venables. And so I think there's a lot of things unwinding here that people may not know Uh, ohio state went to a sugar huddle in this in the culture well playoffs semi final because brent venables and james scowsky Were stealing signs and they knew everything about every team and they knew where to get lined up And the why the reason why brent venables was so good is because he had a captain on the defense That could literally hear venables bark Or he could just stare over and look at a sign and see a color or a signal or whatever And he knew where to line everybody up. Yeah and saying, you know, isaas Simmons is picking things off and running them back, right? and that magic that they had at clemson is no longer there because You know, I don't care. You can't you can't replicate who brent venables is. He's an animal He's an absolute animal As a as a person as a coach is everything is full, you know, fifth year Now clemson doesn't have that important linebacker to call out those plays They don't have a defensive coordinator that can adjust on the fly most defensive coordinators adjust after drives Venables was doing it mid-play and now you see venables and to add add on to that add Oklahoma is now severely troubled On defense and it's because like venables said in his presser this week We don't have a lot of linebackers. We have no depth at the position. So everybody's heard a little bit by this move It helps having a linebacker who's been there for 17 years That will aid things quite a bit in terms of all that stuff Let's open up the board here. Colin of all the other games that we have for week number five What are your favorite bets for this week in college football? Well, UCLA is a team that's quietly been prodding along I don't know how there was love for colorado in the market last week that number just completely Like dumbfounded me like I know it's over three tds and UCLA has come into town But this is still really bad colorado team, but UCLA had no issues there UCLA is the kind of team that can run the ball choke the clock and keep the other offense off the field and trust me There's no problems with kaolin de boar and chip kelly knowing each other fresno state went down there and beat UCLA before and And uh, this is I just think chip is going to be ultra prepared for this game Washington in the meantime, they've done nothing to shore up this offense. They're not tackling. Well, they're just out scoring everybody the defense is Good enough to get them to contend for the pack 12 But i'm not sure it's good enough to go on the road and assert themselves on other teams I think UCLA is primed to upset this Beautiful washington run. I say beautiful because I have it over for their season wind total So I do think UCLA is going to spoil them uh on friday night. The other one. I just mentioned it I think tcu Is going to have their way with oklahoma on the offensive side of the ball Dual threat adrian martinez was asked by kansas state head coach coach climbing to do more I want you to run more. I want you to pass more. I want you to take over this offense because he was real tentative And I get in trouble at action ever because I said I was a big 12 media days, but I was at big 12 media days And I had a really long conversation with adrian martinez like one on one I'm like, what's the goal here? And he's like, well, we were 21 We were on two backs a full back we have to spawn and i'm not going to be asked to do as much as I did in Nebraska. Well, you fast forwarded this past weekend and he was asked to step on the field and take lead and Did he ever write for rushing touchdowns a passing touchdown? And I say all that because he's a dual threat quarterback Now you're getting max duggin And you go and you check the press conference and brent venables is like we don't have any answers at the linebacker position We're extremely thin on the defense. Are you telling me that in six days at oklahoma is going to be Ready for another offense that is Explosive on the ground. I think I think tcu is sixth in the nation and long rushing plays and they've only played three games And everybody else has played four Uh, what tcu is doing on the ground is amazing and they're just going to tear that oklahoma defense apart Do I trust in the tcu defense? No, no, not not whatsoever. Maybe the over is the best play But if you're going to give me six and a half points in the frogs, then they're going to be able to keep up score for score With dill gabriel in that offense Yeah, the total necking is 68 and a half right now. Go ahead and that's high Yeah, I got a couple points for you. So first of all, I mean, how happy is adrian martinez? Get out of town before Sinking ship of nebraska and to go in to norman, oklahoma Play well. I mean, you just gotta be happy for the kid. I guess it's um at some level, right? I was with my colleagues. Uh, I was with my colleague brett mcmerphy at big 12 media days and after we got done talking to adrian martinez who was Happy he was he was nervous about coming back from injury. He did have an injury in the offices And he was nervous about coming back off that But douche vaughn was standing there and I I said douche come on over here Douche you've only fumbled once and 350 carries in your college career Please tell adrian how to go out of the ball and they both laughed. I'm glad they laughed Hopefully I don't get a dm. I'm glad you survived that one I mean, well, adrian martinez a little bit bigger than me, but douche was about right here. I couldn't catch I tried but uh, but you know the next week We went to uh, big big 10 media days And scott and I and my whole question was is it's the chicken and the egg thing Is the nebraska issue adrian martinez all these years or is it scott frost? And I know that scott frost nebraska was ultra dependent on that offense being around adrian martinez asking to do more than any other quarterback in college football but whose Problem like where's nebrat? Where's the root cause of this nebraska issue? So we went to big 10 media days and scott frost couldn't care less about being there Didn't want to answer any questions looked like he'd been on a bender No No enthusiasm about the season held up So the theory coming in was like I think scott frost is the problem Because he's not only had adrian martinez leave and be happy about it But he's got trev albert saying you're no longer calling the offense. It's all on mark whiple Don't even try to stick your nose in that room So turns out now we know at the end of september what the real root cause of that problem Yes, adrian martinez is a very happy quarterback right now Yeah, and another happy quarterback michael pennex. I grabbed a little bit A little bit of heisman odds of 50 to 1 after that Epic showing put up against michigan state. I've always liked the kid And uh, he's he's doing some he's doing some good things out there When healthy better than just about any other quarterback in the nation The problem ed is like, you know now that i'm a First-year heisman vote. Well, I voted for the heisman first time last year And so, you know, I hear all these things and it's like there really is a west coast bias There really is a huge voted group that doesn't stay up late to watch these games, which You know as a person that in less than all these football games the best action is coming after 9 10 o'clock at night, right? So I that's my whole thing is like I wish the west coast got as much love in the in the trophy department as You know, some of the guys on the east coast Yeah, well, I also have a stetson bennett ticket. So keep that in mind As we go as we go through this season Yeah, that's interesting because stetson bennett is setting up to keep his numbers just sub par of cj stroud and bryce young Which bryce young isn't going to win the award But he's going to keep his numbers just sub par of cj stroud But what stetson bennett does in that scc championship game against alabama is going to make or break the heisman. That's it So right now if you're getting 16 to 120 to 1 whatever is out there right now That is a bet that you're making on georgia looking, you know georgia making alabama Look bad and yeah, that's a great bet. I'd rather have that than a money line. So 16 to 1. Yeah, well, no, but but the but the insanity I mean, I think 16 20 to 1 is completely reasonable for stetson bennett But that should have been what it was in the preseason. Yes, not a hundred to 1 where I got it Yeah, I absolutely agree I have a stetson bennett ticket too. I got it at 20 to 1 after week 1 right and if you look at the schedule And the way it lines up, uh, you know last year georgia had to play alabama during the season So that was bad. But right now they're and now you look at after week one Georgia comes out. Oh jeff munkin says well, we thought we were gonna be a little bit worse on defense So we thought we'd step up the tempo and be a little bit more explosive on offense And I'm like signals flaring off right the money on stetson Wish I'd known this before week one, you know kind of one of those things But hey, we'll take it our either way 20 to 1 still a good number on that for sure That is collin wilson check him out on twitter at underscore collin one Check him out on the action network and the action network app as well collin Good luck to you in week number five. Uh, hopefully you get a little uh You get something out of happiness out of that arkansas game and we'll talk to you again soon Thanks for having me guys Alrighty ed. What's going on for you this week over at the power bank Uh, boom lots of stuff. Uh, what happened? I had chris andrews on the podcast and the football analytics show Definitely, uh, worth checking out. Uh, he's bookmaker over at south point. We talked about college football and the nfl And uh, also working on a patron only episode for the podcast the football analytics show will be digging in To some of my college football success rates I'm uh, it is like literally the best time right now to to kind of look at those and get some early insights into teams And putting that together right now should be ready in a couple days I don't want to see the bra the success rate for the broncos given to have their money line this week Just don't show it to me. I think I'd rather not know Yeah, I think I want to bet that too. I haven't yet, but It's like, well, I think the tough part is like the raiders stink too. And I think we're kind of forgetting that Yeah, no, the raiders were near the bottom and past defense, which is not Unexpected, uh, given what we thought coming into the season and signal versus noise on what we've seen from rosa wilson, right? Yeah, yes, there's uh, you know, the passing numbers were atrocious against san francisco There was a kind of funny tweet about uh, how you could get your money back if you watched the Yes, I had Game was like, yeah, sign me up. Yeah, because I had I had denver plus one and a half and I did not enjoy Watching myself win that bet. That was not an enjoyable experience. No I had the denver money line for that one too moved against me, but you know, it's uh move again Wait, I got it one minus one of six. So it was my fault. Like I bought at a bad time. Um, and it closed at Plus one ten. I don't know. It was something it was it should probably come back your way a little bit, right? It did come back a bit. It was it didn't close Where it had gotten to but like I still did not get the best number and I didn't feel good about it Like like overall last week was not my best week But one of the bets I felt worst about was one that I won which was that denver money line So that's just how betting goes. I guess Yeah, I I feel like There's a lot of question marks about the denver offense. I'm I'm I'm personally not giving up on the denver offense it's not great but Yeah, it's it's not it's not looking good. So we'll we'll see how it goes this week But uh, not super not super enthusiastic there. I've got to ask you. Do you have any uh bets you want to recommend for this week as well Oh, sure. Why not? Um This this Texas A&M Mississippi State uh total is pretty interesting. Uh, I like the under I think there's 44 and a half available right now at a lot of places And it's just one of these situations where Texas A&M's offense is so bad Uh, the passing game is terrible. It doesn't matter if it's uh, Haynes king or or max johnson in there they also just lost their top target and neah smith for the rest of the season and uh Texas A&M has talent and that is showing up on the defense left side of the ball and actually very interestingly, um Mississippi state's better unit is the defense right now, which is not really what you expect from a mike leech team But uh, that they've been really good on that side of the ball as well So a lot of that is from these adjusted success rates that i'm looking at early this season And uh, they're all pointing towards the under in that game I was I just looked to see if the the weather is impacting that game Not really but I don't see a lot of points just because uh, you know, Texas A&M's offense is pretty inept And um, two good defenses Yeah, total is 45 and a half right now at fangirl sportsbook for that one I appreciate you mentioning the maryland game last week that did uh, I did fall you on that one That felt good. I did not fall you on ohio state, which I should have uh against Wisconsin, but You know we all have our own regrets, but yeah, I know the The the the michigan maryland game felt good because yeah, it basically happened like like that It was the exact way it wasn't just that you were correct. It was that you were correct in the way it played out too Yeah, yeah, and we'll see and and um I was pretty thrilled that Uh, michigan gets to play at noon at kinnock Yeah, because they have seriously pooped the bed Twice since I've been in in antarbor going to kinnock at night. Yeah, so um, I have a lot of horror flashbacks of kinnock at night like just Defenders running in the open field with it with a turnover in their hands like time after time after time every single time And it's always kinnock at night in my head that that's yeah north-western had a lot of turnovers So it's not it's not a shock, but you know still yeah, I mean there's zero math behind these statements But like it feels really bad Going to kinnock at nights Yep, absolutely Well, check out the football analytics show chris andrew's always gonna listen So I'd recommend checking that out as well and check out ed's work over at the power rank I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast We are back once again tomorrow to talk at fl week number four with ryan williams We'll talk to you all you all of you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network