 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapin. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. One Basil Chapin on the Valentine's Day, Monday the 14th of February. Happy Valentine's, everyone. Downs down 289, 293, 302. We're looking at a sudden sell-off as you had the futures overnight just tanking. And then there was this moment she spiked to the upside as it seemed like Putin was talking about considering some kind of negotiations. Yeah, sure. And then you got the real thing coming out. Presidentally, I see here in the den, someone said, was it in the den? Where did I see that? Zelensky? What did he want to do? Oh, gosh, where was it? He wanted... Oh, that's right. Thanks, Pat. Ukraine's President reaffirms desire to join NATO. So much for that. Here comes attention again. So basically what we're looking at is the larger tide going down continues. And my thinking is being that we're going to make a sideways move. How deep today's action is going to be, how we close, it's going to be important. But the lowercase h, I'll just draw this in for you quickly, because it applies to almost all the indices we're looking at. Did I lose something? Oh, no. Yes, no, I've got it. There it is. So this h pattern, come down sharply, almost like a straight line, and then rally up and then fail, usually at a peak A or B. When it's at an A or B, there's a good chance you're going to take out that left side low and go low. If it goes to a C, you've usurped some of the downside energy, but at the same time, you've used up a lot of the upside energy, and you can come back and hold somebody above the left side low. That's kind of what I'm thinking. Let me just draw this out. Days young, anything can happen. But what I had done was about two, three weeks ago, when I was discussing this, I said, the pattern that I'm looking for after the volatility index that had a huge spike to the upside was that the emotionality of the sell-off was really something that allowed the market to just have a big relief rally. But there are a lot of things that we look at. We look at the Chapman Inc. track repellent zone. We look at the arch formation. How high can it go? The leg that starts from the bottom has to go, probably leg C, to be a very bullish mode, way above the left side high doesn't be there would be at 48, 18.62. We're at 43.98. It's just so far-fetched to think we can even get there without a consolidation with a pretty decent major low. So we've had an internal low. We're waiting for the residual low. And my suspicion is that we in a trading band, sideways band, the lower we go on each pullback in this arch, going to a second arch formation. So the lowercase h turns into a lowercase m. That's still going to be, I don't know what's going to happen to be able to get it above this downtrend line into the 45, 85, 45, 90 area. It doesn't matter. That's what we've got as a pattern. Meantime, that's what we're looking at. So the S&P is down 19 and 43.98. This is underneath the Georgia period moving average. So what happens for the next hour and a half is going to be very, very important. Now we're looking at the QQQ. QQQ, arch formation. It's actually a little bit better shape. But wow, when you've come from the high of 408.71 in the 22nd of November, this is coming into almost December, November goes to December, January. We're almost three months into this consolidation, big consolidation. You've got to say that that is a huge decline. And there is a cell mode in the daily cell mode in the channel wave notation in the weekly chart. And we're just watching this pattern because that long-legged doji in the monthly chart of the QQQs, even on the 14-period moving average, if we were to do that in the Dow, go to the, and that was a question that came up about the 14-period moving average in the monthly chart, which is at 33,675. If we were to take that out on a closing basis, a monthly closing basis, I would have to say that that is really quite serious. The first time we've had that kind of signal in a monthly chart, take it seriously. Now, in the monthly chart, you've got the S&P, which almost, I don't see any way that we can not consider this is going to be a peak B. In the Chapman Ray methodology, we're always looking, once you get a buy signal, which upgraded to a buy mode, that's what we've got in the S&P monthly. You always expect at least a C and then a D and then you've got to be careful. So this is going to be an important month. And on that, you've got a Chapman Ray Roman Camel right there. I forgot to type that in. It was a low of 14, 2, 2, 2.62. A close below that any time in the next three, four weeks would be pretty serious. And that means we've got a sell mode in the daily, sell mode in the weekly. I don't have a signal yet in the monthly, but why? We are watching that very closely. So this is very important. Let's go to the IWM. IWM has had a pretty decent sell-off from the 240, was it 48 or 44? 244.46 high of the 8th of November. We're trading now at 202. That's, you know, sell mode daily, sell mode weekly. And I've actually, I have to wait for the end of February, but I wouldn't be surprised if I have to call this a decent sell signal in the IJs. But at the same time, they are desperately trying to move in their own trajectory. Look, they're up $1.51 at 202.90, up 0.75. I like that. But it doesn't mean to say we like it enough to buy it, but I think this is something we're going to keep our eye on to see in this rotation. The small caps, the Russell 2000, these are the small caps. And maybe they're trying to find a little home on the buy side. All right. That's enough with that. Let's go to the SMHs. SMHs up almost 4.268. Horrible action from all time high. 318s down to 249. Bounces back to 219 now to 68. I just think there's a story to be told. And we've got a couple of semiconductors coming up with earnings this week. I just, I don't care how good the earnings are. I think there's a problem with semiconductors. So we're watching this very close to see what happens at the end of February. Do those semiconductor, the applied materials, they're fantastic companies. I think they've had their time in the sun and now they need a little bit of shade. They need to digest those huge gains and they're going to take some time. All right. We'll see what happens. And now we're going to go to... TLT is really important. The TLT is down again to $1.50 at 136.75. We had a Chapman weight green Roman candle. Very simple at the bottom when it happens. If there is a close within two days above the previous high, that says on the very short term, you've turned the candle of the open and close. And this is, in this case, we're going to go to the close of 138.25. Huh? No? It's just in the close. Too much to open. Of 136.87. So the 136 has to become support if there is in the next week. But I'd say just a week. If there's a close above the high on Friday and the TLT above 138.53. It goes down to 150 right back. That's a Chapman. High-good efficiency. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open. 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The low was 35,131. What's going on here? 35,131. Oh, that's the one over there. Yeah, 35,133,150. Okay. So in that whole 33,000 area, that's going to be key because if there is a close under the week of this month, that doesn't tell you that's a low. All it says is, is that within the context of a monthly chart going from 18,213, doubling to 36,952 in two years from the March 2020 low, you can expect a decent pullback. I would use other methodologies to tell you what the key support level would be. But I have to base it on how on a monthly basis the MACD, if it expands, let me do, yeah, you see this daily chart right here of the Dow, see how the MACD started or flat and then it expanded was huge as it made the dreaded H pattern that first one and then failed around about the 18th or so of January and it tumbled down. And then what happens is the MACD expands and then the histogram, the little vertical bars, the distance between these two moving averages starts to shrink and then it goes positive. At this particular point, it has been positive. Today it's unchanged. I'm sorry, no, today's down negative. So it's cross negative, day is young. We'll see what happens. But that is one side. The other sign is that on Friday with that move down, the nine period went under the 14 period moving average in the day. Back again to negative. The weekly chart is B negative and look at the distance from the nine period to the 14 period in the monthly chart. So I don't want to get carried away by giving numbers out either on the upside or the downside in the monthly chart until I have a clue. I haven't even finished the month of February yet. But the level to watch absolutely is 33,600 to 33,100. A close below that in February is suggesting strongly that my, let me see if I can do that. Let me just do that one more time, sbx.exe, there we go. And that this arch pattern, which should have some kind of a rebound coming down so sharp, he says, it's going to have to be a lot of things and have to be the whole shipping aspect has to be looking like it's going to be resolved. We don't know yet. The whole aspect of rates has to be somewhat, we were clueless as to what's happening there. Well, we're not clueless. We know the rates are going higher. But how, when and how, what, those are the things we don't know. And the other aspect is this is sitting there, the whole Russia thing is kind of just sitting there. Now it could be that within some people said Wednesday, I don't know why they said Wednesday. Nobody really knows. This is one of those situations. You know, the nudge factor that I talk about in the market, when the market is like on options Friday, most players don't know where it's going to go. But they are good enough that if they get a sense, just a whiff of certain things happening into day or into hour or into 10 minutes, they immediately jump on the bandwagon and say, that's the way it's going. So they're not even sure they're going to be ready or they're going to use their knowledge. But when it comes, it comes. And that's the same thing as that thing with Putin. He's done everything he wants. And that was just a matter of time. He could just delay this for six months. Who knows? But that's what I'm saying. It's the nudge factor. We don't have the nudge factor yet in terms of the military aspect. All right. Let's get back to the nitty gritty. So I wanted to show you this, the gold. This is a really good move. The fact that the move in gold held, I was really suspicious because when the news came out that maybe he's had some discussions or whatever, if you can believe anything that Putin says. Gold didn't really do anything. It held still plus 18 or 16. Now it's up 25 in a new recovery heart. This is a very good aspect. And finally, we're starting to see, look how horrible the GDX. I had a bunch of questions. I said, I'll deal with it right now. GDX was acting, look, Friday, early in the morning under 31, it was looking like, oh, geez, another sideways move. All of a sudden, the rectangle that I drew has gone back towards this last peak C, which was a C minus because it failed to enter 28.87 in the market vectors, gold minus ETF. And then roof, we go to the upside. And high today, 33.02, the high on the 20th of January was 32.33. How can that be? 33.10, sorry. I get that right, 33.19. So we're on our way there, but if you look at the weekly chart, it just says, hey, we've seen this before, nothing to see here. Look at the monthly chart. So I always contend that I've, the consideration that gold is, has a function in the marketplace, but it has a function in the geopolitical arena, which is far more, how can I say, far more individualized, because look, silver is having a nice move, but it's stuck in the 200-beer moving average. It isn't up near the peak C that was at, near the 24, what, 60, 70 area. It's at 23.86. So it's very specific. If you look at the dollar, the dollars actually had a pretty decent move. Peak A, peak B, does this still mean that out of all the, all the economies in the world, the American economy still considered to be one of the best? That's the way I look at the dollar. I look at it as an icon, a Harley Davidson icon of American economic activity as measured throughout the world. Let's just look at Hogg. Hogg had a big spike up. It's holding pretty well. Harley Davidson. And what I'd say in a long time, we have no position in Harley Davidson, sort of long time subscribers. We used to follow this really closely. Once we had a really nice move, then we haven't been back again for a long time. But I'd say, if Harley Davidson can go electric in keeping with the, I don't know if I want to use the word fashion because that kind of means it's just transitory. But in keeping with the direction of the automobile companies and everything else going electric, and it will find favor, it's going to be something to keep going on for 2022-2023. I'll be back in a moment down 274. He's got just 17. We'll be back and there are a bunch of things we'll think about and it will be soon. Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex creditor in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at TFNN.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. 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BNDD is the Quadratic Deflation ETF and it is the KFA Funds, New York Sticker, the New York Stock Exchange Sticker, BNDD. And what it is, the BNDD ETF is an ESG fixed income ETF that seeks to benefit from lower growth, deflation, lower or negative long-term interest rates and or a reduction. So it's 25.59.8 cents. It's kind of getting a little bit of a base built into it. I just think that, yeah, I think that this is something we got to keep an eye on. At this point it's doing nothing. It's just stuck in the lower range and it was an IPO back in September or so. It's been down to 22.50. It's been up to 27.50. Let's just keep an eye on it. This is in this pattern, all I can say is a rectangle formation can last a lot longer than your patients. It did not retest the low of the 2506 level on the 10th of January. This is just something to keep your eye on. Normally I would draw an H pattern like this and I'd like to see where it comes down to. This is a very quick one. So I kind of have to stretch it out and then say, hey, so far it's making higher lows, not higher highs, but higher lows. So I would draw another one in right here. Let's keep an eye on it. I'm going to write it down here, BNDD. I just hope deflation is not in the cards at all because deflation is probably one of the worst things that you can have. Can't raise prices. It's just terrible. Profits are not made. All right, so that's BNDD. A question about the VIX index. Oh, as a trade night, I don't see it. This is, you've got better trading vehicles for trading. Yeah, just on an intraday basis now. That's not worth it. The VIX index had a big spike to 32.04 this morning. 38.94 was the COVID inflation of Russia. First time I've had Russia on here for a long time. Well, I did with the impeachment thing, but I didn't treat it as Russian because I thought that that was not proven at all. But in the meantime, back at the ranch, 35-32 was the high of roundabout December. Was that the first? And then 27.39 was the high on the 20th of December. Sorry, that has to be January. No, that was December. Oh, that was November. Sorry. That was the high. Yeah, the second of December, third of December, remember that made it high after the Dow made it slow. And then the next one was the 20th of December, 27.39. So this is really interesting because you've got a cup formation that failed. You had your Friday, look, he has the weekly chart. He has your Friday close, a green, and that usually says perhaps the next week, you could have another green. Remember, I was discussing this last week. Well, we are green right now. The Dow is down 353. The answer goes down 29. This is, it started off to be a horrible day. And then the market opened with that news. And there was some kind of an effort to rally back again, certainly came back huge from the lows. And now we're back down again, just trying to form some kind of a base. But if you look at the big picture, the volatility holding in the 28th or higher area is just suggesting to us that fund managers are buying insurance. And as long as they're buying insurance, it says you've got to anticipate that there are triple digit down days in play. And that rallies are going to be shorter term as long as the VIX index remains high. Just keep it as simple as possible. The other thing to keep as simple as possible is that within the context of I have to go to in the context of the economy seeing a rebound because of COVID is going to go into the background. We're going to see some kind of economic recovery as seen by stocks like a Marriott, which is down from the high of Friday. But it's up $1.91 and 171.84. Holding really well. And that's the kind of thing that we're trying to do here for the opening call. We're trying our best to at least be in, give a chance to some, there we go, normalization coming back socially. And that says that Hyatt, whoops, don't type it there, type it here. Hyatt, these are stocks that are holding well. H, there it is. That is Hyatt Corporation. It's up to $1.43. It also made a peak D on Friday. So we're going to be watching this very closely. There's your D. Let's go to Hilton. So as long as these are showing some kind of sense of normalcy, it's up today, but it isn't acting as well as the others. It's still not that far from its high, but it's pulling back some. But this is what I'm saying. So let's go to Jets. Because why on earth would Jets show any strength like it did over the last five, six sessions, today's up 11 cents at $0.2028, having tried for the $0.280 level and then pushed to the high that was made on Thursday, I think it was, around about $0.20350. Why is this holding not bad? When it's the airlines and the airlines with the winter, they've had to shut down so many times and yet they're holding pretty well as a group. So it's really tough on my video on Sunday, yesterday for subscribers. My overview, I said there are so many conflicting things. If you're looking here at the den, it was mentioned since that's one of the stocks I've followed for decades. Overalls, uniforms, rentals, it's making this dreaded H pattern at a low. It hit a high in the 460 area, what was that, 461.44 on the 13th of December. Charities of 373 are about to take out the left side low in an art formation. Wait a minute, that's really bad action. That's overalls, uniforms, rentals. If you look at RHI, this is Robert Haft. Up near the highs, this is Robert Haft. These are jobs. These are interviews and jobs. D, let me call this D. I believe that that's a C. That's an E. Yep, that's it. Now let me just double check. I don't want to just do it. So Robert Haft is doing really nicely. RHI up 25 cents at 121.17. 1559, well, 156, 1558. So here's your peak E, potential peak E could even be an instant restart right here at the high and all-time high. What's with this Robert Haft? Because jobs, we are short on jobs in certain areas, very short. So that's why you've got this dichotomy. You've got this, I mean, if ever we've looked at a diverse market, you're looking at the core, the SMHs pulling back very sharply, saying that they should be anticipating a turnaround in the overall economy and they should be going to highs. And yeah, they are way off the all-time highs, holding okay, but really not looking great at all. To me, that's the sign of what's going on. Look at Ford almost about to down a game. So I think that we've got to be careful here and I'll be back in a moment to talk about that. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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Visit DirectionInvestments.com slash Biotech today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Direction Chairs carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about Direction Chairs. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus, please contact Direction Chairs at 866-476-7523. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, 4-Side Fund Services, LLC. I was very disappointed to see that the credit card usage is just skyrocketed. I'm not sure if that's to do with funds that were just there available to be used, or whether it was to save the day and pay for things. This is a real tough thing. But if I'm looking at the overall economy, the fact that steel held well, that's pulling back today down 66 in the SLX, Venec, Vector Steel ETF, at 56.98, that is saying to me that in the shorter term, there is a demand that's being met in the buying and selling in the infrastructure area. I shouldn't say infrastructure, in the capital goods. This is important. I mean, the effort made in something like a US Steel or a new core, I don't know how they predict the outcomes of putting together some kind of criteria that says, we've got to meet these goals. We've got to meet those goals. How do they actually judge it in a time like this when you don't even know what the goals are? When you're looking at the automobile industry, of course, you look at Alcoa rather than the steel companies, but it's the same sort of thing. So this is saying to me, and the reason why I said, maybe when we're looking at this big picture, you've got to step back and say, wait a minute, there were areas like the IAI, oops, like the IAI, like the steels that are actually holding well. Well, the IAI down today, $1.52 at 108.14, is the ISIS broker dealer and security ETF still holding up towards the higher range. But that says to me that there's a really good chance that people are starting to do a lot more investing on their own. But I don't want to call it trading. I have no idea whether it's trading or investing, whatever it is. But that seems to me to be a good thing. But it also says, it means that the volatility that you're seeing in a Schwab, look at that, 95.62, drop sharply down to the 84s, and then spikes back to what? 96.24 on the 9th of February. Just less than a month later, that's the double top. And now it's pulling back. I don't like these double tops. This is, uh-oh, be careful, because if you don't hold key support, in this case, there'll be in the 84s, there's a big problem. We're not long anymore. I'm just, now I'm stepping aside and trying to be as careful as possible. Just trying to find sectors that might, under certain circumstances, not be as vulnerable as many others in the different sectors that we cover. You know, you got the XLF, because the XLF down today sharply, down 55 cents, now 39.56. This is the S&P Select financial spider fund. Now here's something that I need to talk about. I've made a big deal about it often enough, but I need to repeat it again. Well, first of all, 41.70 was the high on the 13th of January in the S&P Select financial spider fund. It drops to 36.5 points, that's 11% or so, comes back to where? 41.39, within less than a dollar of the previous high announcement. How many of these double tops can we see? It just happens over and over again. So I am looking at this and I'm saying now we've got to be very cognitive of the rotations and even the rotations within the rotations. And what we're looking at here is that normally, and this I've discussed for years and years, when markets become volatile and I always use that in air quotes, volatile, and all it means in stock market parlance, they're going down. So when the key indices and stocks are starting to deteriorate and come down, almost always you'll find that money migrates from the volatility of stocks, meaning going down, to the so-called security, and I always say so-called, and you can see that now, that's the reason why I call it also in air quotes, so-called security and safety of bonds. It didn't happen this time. It's not happening now. Why? Because the TBT is telling us, the guy that's holding off to that horrible Doji Roman, upside down Roman candle on Friday, it's holding really well. This is the ultra-short Lehman 20th Treasury Bond ETF. So when people say it's different this time and then other people roll their eyes and say, oh yeah, sure. We always say it is different this time. There is a big difference this time and you can see it. And that just says to me, we have to be aware that the inflationary aspect is a little bit separate from bonds. Usually you look at yields and say, oh, yields are going up, maybe we'll get some inflation. No, that's the reason why I'm saying this is a potpourri. This is a mix of so many divergent aspects that it's not that easy to put them all together and trying to put them all together means that you've got to be very selective. So that cancels out. The XLF is going to skyrocket because bonds are going higher. These are maybe separate things. So we have to look at the long bank of America pulling back sharply down 74 cents. Long from the 31s, it's gone all the way to 50.11. Take a little bit off and here's your double top, 50.08 on the 10th of January to 50.11. These V-shaped double tops or capsule formation double tops can be lethal. Oops, I've already drawn that out after this one here. Look at that. V-shaped pattern. And in fact, this one almost had a left side, right side price time match from the high of the 10th to the low of the 24th and then up to the high of this past Thursday. So I'm saying be very careful. The reason why we've tried to raise as much cash as we could is because you do need to have cash available. There will be plenty, plenty of buys. So a question to Dan. Could I look at CF? CF is a little different. CF is CF industries, holdings, hydrogen, nitrogen products for clean energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement. Yeah, it made a leg D on Friday and it went to 77.24. And now we're looking at 77, yep, 24. And now we're looking at it at 70.18. 77 down to 70 in two days, 10% correction, peak D in the daily now, leg D in the weekly. We just started the week. I can't talk about it as if it's a weekly peak D, but it's a leg D, maybe at a peak D and a leg F, quick E to F in the monthly charts. I just got to watch this. And that's just, there are times when I look at the market and I say, oh my goodness, just you got to get out of everything. And then the other times you say, no, wait a minute, try to be as rational as you can. It's very hard to be rational with this market. All you can do is follow the charts, list the can and play whatever it is at a short term, but the longer term says, gotta wait for some decent balance, a decent rate. Okay. That's what we can expect. Okay. So let's put your balance down. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. 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Because if there is a sudden pullback and crude oil at 93.54 this week touches 89.30, that will say that's the first time that you've seen some sort of, because of the technicals, maybe pulling back some sort of digestive phase. But as long as there's this configuration going on or potential, and you're Ukraine, you've got to be very careful. I wouldn't be shorting. And I would still keep a position there. You can take a little bit off. The other thing is natural gas, natural gas made that huge peak D in the daily chart and the Chapman Wave methodology slumps under the 200p moving averages now up 19 cents at 4138. Yeah, this just says it's stuck in range. It has big moves up and down. If it's associated with the 433 area, that's going to be a good sign. But so far it's just stuck. And I will be back as I say at three o'clock. We can discuss a lot more things the other day progresses. I see batch of buying coming in, but they can't hold. I see batch of sunning coming in. So far, they've been met with buying. And that's what I'm saying. We're in this mixed market. Even in your day, you can see it. But more and more areas are starting to deteriorate with us watching the steel sector very closely. Have a wonderful day. I'll be back for the news. And then comes Larry Pizzerberg and a wonderful show is coming up. And don't forget we started nine with Tommy O'Brien, market kick or fabulous job. I'll be back for a moment and then I'll be back as often as soon.