 The following is a presentation of TFNN. A Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me, our humble, lovable, and squeezibly soft host. As always, we'd love to come to you at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So, we've got options expiration, but most of the action pretty much happened yesterday. But still pretty decent volume. They did push the market down a little bit in the morning. That may have been continued selling to raise cash for the two IPOs. The big ones that came out today. We've got Pinterest and Zoom. They did a little bit better job of getting these out the door than they did lift a week ago. But at the same time, it took two and a half, well, we took two and a half billion dollars out of somewhere and put it into new paper today. Actually, we had to have the cash in for last night, plus whatever anybody bought today. But they did a little bit better job. Now, again, this doesn't mean that the stocks are worth that. What they did was they printed up a whole bunch of shares. And what they do, they only pushed some of the shares out of the $10 billion market cap of Pinterest. I think it's about one and a half billion. So, I call these, in the industry, they're called sliver deals. They put out just a little sliver of them. And probably the most egregious of all time that I remember has been Caesars Palace. They put out 2% of the shares. And for the last, however long it's been out there public, they've been doling out a few more shares every year. They just, as soon as it goes up a little bit, they dump out more shares. They dump out more shares. Now, the reason for shares are not to make you rich. It is to finance a company. And by hook or crook, the people of Wall Street get involved in getting that out the door. It is in their nature, and for the most part, to support those companies because they get shares. Not only a front up fee, but they get shares and they love those shares that they get basically free. They could go to zero or they could go to the moon before they could sell them. And if everything looks right, they'll get behind it. They'll flog it for all its worth. They'll get it up there and then sell the shares off later. Sometimes they want to hang on to the shares for a long time. But I'd say, let's say seven out of 10 times, it's about getting the stock price up good enough. As soon as the lockup is over that they can start cashing in. And they'll let their equity buy side guys look at it later. But if you're in the M&A part of it, it's only one thing. That's getting the shares out, getting cash back in and doing it yet all over again. So quiet day, options expiration, three day weekend. We've got just about everything going on. Of course, Monday and Tuesday, when we come back, we're going to have some more earnings. Back right off of the bat on Monday. And that is against the backdrop of a rollover Monday and Tuesday on options for the next month and the month after that, taking us into really almost summer to see on the calendar here. So on Monday, Halliburton, Steel Dynamics, Granger, not a whole lot. It's the after the bell action that starts whirling up with Whirlpool after the bell on Monday, Tuesday. When we come back in the morning, hopefully you're all rested because we've got Twitter, Verizon, Lockheed, Mark Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Arlie Davidson, UTX, JetBlue, ATI, Hasbro. We've got a lot of them. Polti Homes, Polaris Industries, EDU, which is the new Oriental Education, a pay-to-play school. Well, I guess aren't they all. And of course, after the bell on Tuesday, SNAP, eBay, iRobot, Texas Instruments, Ameritrade, Six Flags, Gordon's Life Sciences, Canadian Pacific Railway Striker, Terradine, Hawaiian Holdings, gets you pretty much into Wednesday morning. And when we look at Boeing, Caterpillar, AT&T, Domino's, Pizza Biogen, so that's going to have some action on Wednesday morning for the biotechs, which again, I went on a rant. Was it yesterday or the day before? I can't keep these days straight anymore. I think it was the day before. I think it was on Monday when I railed against the Soviets for wanting Soviet-style healthcare here in America. But of course, we get to that Wednesday after the bell with Facebook, Microsoft, Tesla, PayPal, Visa, Chipotle, Chipotle, who cares? I don't go there and I don't eat there. And the people that do, it's kind of Russian roulette eating it. You just don't know if you're going to die or not. Maybe it's one in a hundred thousand, one and a half a million. One in a million? That's hard to tell. A very titanic form of indigestion at the least. So we've got that going on for us. So I got an itchy ear. Hang on a second. Sometimes you just got an itch. There's nothing you can do about it. And Xilinx. So we've got a little bit of that, but it's not going to stop. We've got two or three weeks of them hammering out earnings left and right. So it is going to be kind of tough. Itchy ear, my eye, yes. Nothing like mixing or doubling up on your metaphors. We've got a little bit of history today. And then we'll get into some charts and talk about what's going on in the rest of the market. And it's all just a little bit of history repeating. On this day in 1983, the Osborn Computer Corporation officially announced the Osborn Executive Portable Computer. The follow-up to its extremely successful Osborn One. This is a computer that, according to Lord, took down the company known as the Osborn Effect. The legend is that by leaking the announcement of this computer earlier in the year, dealers canceled all the orders for Osborn Ones, effectively destroying the company's cash flow and hindering operations going forward. This resulted in the cancellation of the company's IPO and eventually went bankrupt. A lot of that's true. It was the early Wild Wild West days of the computer industry. And a lot of people that had cash in it didn't quite like the way that the executive was running the thing. So they brought in some people that were supposed to be the adults. That's the people that actually leaked the story. And they thought that it was going to be good to make sure that everybody knew the company was running well and no new products were coming out. So I can't really blame the executive sitting in the seat as much as many people that got shoved in there because everybody wanted something to be smooth. Hey, you don't get into the computer business because you want the mundane and the mediocre. It's either heaven or hell for you. 18 or excuse me, 1983 Osborn Computer concealed its fate. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. Whether we're in a bull or bear market, a good strategy is to have the tools needed to help you scan and analyze the markets before you trade. The Taz Profile Scanner instantly scans and filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures and forex. 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TFNN has launched our brand new website. You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL but when you do you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions. We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com educating investors. And got our first question of the day says, do you think Microsoft going to pull back to 98 or is it 117 out of the pullback point? So 108 made a big mistake. Yeah, I mean if the market continues to have problems, why? Yeah, you know you got a little bounce out here. You know it since this 120 level it's not had any volume and it's just kind of bounced up here. The question is and he says I made a mistake. I don't know what you bought it for then what you sold it for. If you bought it for less than what you sold it for I wouldn't say it's a mistake. If you take your money and then let it run and run and run until eventually it does open up $20 later, then was that a mistake? You know you only have the information that you have when you when you make the trade hindsight is always 2020. So first of all I don't know where you bought it and where you sold it but I don't know if you sold it for more than you bought it. It's not a mistake. You may have taken your money early. I'll always like Mark Wilson's discussion about taking money and having more money left on the table is the worst thing for a trader psychologically. But you know it is one of those things where if you were perfect that would be fine. But as Confucius said better a diamond with a flaw than a pebble in the shoe. And most people and they just you know striving for perfection will you know will kind of kill you as a trader. Do you think you're ever going to get everything all the time in every trade but you know could the thing get down 10 bucks on earnings. Yeah I suspect that it is going to get back down around that 100 level. I don't know when but you know at least if you look at the whole market for the last two weeks a lot of things have just kind of gone up on no volume. And you know you get into April now you're almost into May. We would have to have a trade deal and announce it fairly quickly. I just don't think it's coming anywhere or anytime anywhere that quick. Five and a half points on the S&P cash up 134 on the down Aztec basically flat up maybe up one point Russell down one point. So no signal out here that dips below it. But that's it. Okay. So you had a good trade. That's fine. There's a lot of stocks and you know what this is a game that's more like baseball you hit 60 or you win 60% of your games. You know you're in the World Series. You get you hit 400 and you make 35 miles 35 million a year. You know you just want to you know when you do hit that home run you want to circle the bases. Make sure you touch every one of them. I don't know. It's not interesting. I didn't the market's been acting rather horribly for a while. And it does seem rather hugely extended. I hadn't seen a lot of reasons to be long and hadn't seen many stocks give up the ghost and say it was time to be short yet. But certainly we're going into a three day weekend. I'm fairly bearish coming into next week. And there may be several reasons beyond this the technical that I think that is true. But the ability for the market not to be able to swallow two and a half billion dollars worth of IPOs this week and not run up to the highs. I think is somewhat telling. But again I think we're you know the risk reward is fairly decent. Either we're probably going to bounce on Monday and everybody's going to come back in like nothing ever happened. Or we're going to start to continue selling off in which I see a lot of stocks that are starting to group over on that right shoulder of the stocks. Anyway you can give me call it 877-927-6648. Usually we do the tech insider segment on Friday. Of course we will not be here then. If you have anything that maybe is a little off the beaten path. You can call me today on technology. I was looking at one that I thought was pretty funny because I was in the I was in the store last Sunday. And the guy that was working there was nobody around. It was a nice day down here in Florida and I think one of the first really nice beautiful days and everybody was out doing stuff. Last thing they wanted to do is be in the store. I had to run there and pick some stuff up. Anyway this guy was trying to watch the golf game on his phone. They had a Roku hooked up to the television and he was sitting there cussing the Roku because he spent money on CBS all access. And he goes what do you think all access means? And I said well you get to access everything. He goes no guess what CBS all access doesn't include the golf games they broadcast. So he was kind of mad at either buying both buying his Roku and CBS all access said he was canceling it on Monday. I think that's the problem they kind of bifurcated and chopped up and misled a lot of people on stuff. But you know what the chart doesn't look as bad as I thought it would be at this point. Of course this is another one of those stocks that has a mountain of short sellers in it. I've actually thought many times that it is going to be the next GoPro and it may be maybe the thing is that it is probably a little harder to fault the CEO about it. One of the things I wouldn't be short it's got 14 days to cover. So if you're looking at this stock inner day next week and we do get a little pop watch for this saying it looks good on the chart. I don't like the business so much and we're coming into earnings. But one thing I do like is 14 days to cover means that you may be able to run these shorts into bankruptcy if they're on the right wrong side of anything happening. Of course it's probably going to be some article about them getting bought out by somebody at 100 bucks. And it'll probably all be fabricated but it won't matter because there'll be a lot of people looking out there for cream and ointments and lotions for the backside if they were short Roku with 14 days to cover. So in fact I didn't look and see what it was like. It was GoPro. Let me put Roku in here because it's always like that. It's not at home. Sorry about that. I gave GoPro 14 days to cover Roku not so much. Why did I make a big mistake there? I'm glad I look back and updated it. Not as bad as one would think. Maybe this is why it is headed down. Well, I'm glad I caught it right then. So, GoPro 14 days to cover. Roku one day to cover. Wow, big mistake there. Be back in a minute. 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For all the details and to start your 30 day free trial today log on to TFNN.com now. Hi folks, Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights then now is a great time to sign up for a 30 day free trial. Every morning by 9 30 I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets, currencies and commodities to keep investors up to date on the day's trading action. Included in market insights are specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks, ETFs and even options which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter. If you'd like to try my newsletter risk free for 30 days then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find market insights under trading newsletters. I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead. I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action. I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity. Sign up for your 30 day free trial to my daily newsletter market insights today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Well, go get them folks. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including Gartleys, ABCs, Butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day, unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. As we're back, again, not much movement and volume kind of tipping over, but 4.2 billion shares already on the CBOE equities market volume summary. There's going to be a new version of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts on Monday for those subscribers that have it. Look for some emails and links to download the new version. I've been working on this for a few months. One of the things a lot of people had asked about was going to that CBOE market volume summary numbers. And now, whether you go to the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ or any of the other ones, it will read real-time update and the history will show the CBOE volumes for all of the various markets. So one important upgrade, so you'll be able to see all those. It's been somewhat difficult to find data providers that don't want an arm and a limb. I'm talking about $310 grand a month or something to supply data in the format that you're actually looking for. So it ends up being somewhat problematic, but you know what? Not a bad thing to look at. What else do we have out here? The New York Stock Exchange. All of these will have the volumes all set up, so no biggie there. But just keep an eye on it. And again, it's been very subtle, but we've just had this kind of on average volume ticking down, volume ticking down. But we've now got where the selling volume is just a little bit more than the buying volume on average over the last two or three weeks. So this may be one of the most subtle tops coming in or the pause where we get ready to go and try to take out the all-time highs. Normally, I would say it was given that we'd go test the all-time highs next week. And maybe we get the news to actually do it, but the response this week has been horrible on a lot of stocks from looking at Goldman Sachs and them holding it up pre-market only to sell it off. Now, yesterday they pumped it right back up, but the reaction and the guidance is not all that good. And a lot of that has to do, the pumping today has to do with options expiration. So as I'm saying, today we're up on the less than two million shares. You really wanted to see a lot more out of these than we got. And I was going to say even the earnings from yesterday, when you looked at them, I think we had one or two outside the outlier of up or down 4% on earnings announcements. And it's just become kind of brutal out here that the reaction is going to be muted both up and down until it starts trading, in which case we actually see a lot of these stocks do a little bit more. We were talking about Best Buy and I've got an email asking me whether or not I would short it for the trip back down to about 60 to 50. And I think it's probably going to be for sale with the new CEO coming in and the old CEO leaving. Its volume has not been good since we really had the gap up on the earnings of February 27. Not a huge winner, but again it's looking like a lot of these stocks that rolled over and that is a lot of sideways action at the highs. You know what it is, my ear was itching and then my eyes are kind of itching. I think I've got some issues here with allergies. Now I've got to sneeze. Maybe it's that air conditioning kicking out all the bad allergens of the last month because I really haven't had it on this week. But I'll turn it down a little bit so I can hear what's going on in the earwig. Yeah, could be that. Anyway, give me call today at 877-927-6648. We'll start looking at some of these other stocks that we looked at earlier this week and see how they developed after the very, very light volume that we talked about earlier in the week. Let's go back to the 15th. Autodesk has kind of rolled over. We saw it try to blow away the previous high that had 4 million shares back on March 1st. You got into it. You never really had any kind of juice. Yesterday it rolled right back into the trading range. Got a little bit of a hammer today, but certainly these things, there's not a lot of juice when these things go to the highs and they're not found there. One of the ones I wanted to look at for a possible long was baby. We traded this and I think I bought it at 2550 or something and sold it at 25 bucks. It just never went higher over about three or four days than I had it when it should have probably taken back off. The energy on this right-hand side is nothing, but again, it's below its previous low of February 13th. Had 3 million shares yesterday. You just had 342,000 shares. So there is the possibility that some of these will bounce back in to their trading range. Again, a lot of earnings coming up and Caterpillar one of those. 9.4 million shares on December 3rd. Yesterday we were into that with 3.5 million shares today. Probably going to do very close to the same. So that would be kind of it. CBLK, which is carbon black, one of these stocks in the security software part, actually doing fairly well on light volume going into the February 22nd low at 12 bucks. It had 4 million shares and you're into it with 284,000 shares today. So some of these things do look like they could be bottoming out. Of course, HAC kind of gave a big signal out here the last few days. This is the security shares, factor shares, security ETF. Got to 4140, rolled down hard yesterday, 241,000 shares today, making a little bit more of a hammer out here on 200,000 shares, but certainly went to its new highs and rolled over fairly quickly. What do we have? Sierra's Logic, another one that broke above its highs. And of course, she had some juice going into that high on the 16th. You spiked a giant doji yesterday. You're still going a little bit sideways out there today. Another one that's on the lows that looks like it could be a possible buy, just on a price and volume and chart basis, is this fossil. And again, it's one of those stocks that's got major shorts always on it. Oh, FOSL. Get it here. It hadn't been too bad lately. 15 days to cover on it too. So there's another one. So we got a couple of stocks. GoPro, 15 days to cover. Fossil, 15 days to cover. If I'm wrong about us going down, probably ought to look at some of these stocks and see how fast they can run on some good news. We'll be back in a minute. Thank you. $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year or $6,200 over the four-year period. That same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First mortgage program would give you $3,500 per year or $14,000 over the four years. What should you prefer? $6,200 or $14,000 of interest on your investment. If you'd like more information about the Tiger First mortgage program, you can call me at 877-518-9190. That's 877-518-9190. If you haven't checked out the Newsletters page of TFNN.com, what are you waiting for? All of the TFNN Newsletters are informative, up-to-date, affordable, and must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets. TFNN Newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news. 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It did give fairly bearish sign up here on April 12th at 589-32. It was testing 750,000 share, I with 460,000 shares. So this is where I'm talking about brittle markets and that is that if you got no volume, a lot of times you don't want to be short. But at the same time, if you don't have the risk reward set up correctly, you don't want to be long either. And, you know, why there are a handful of stocks that have a lot of short sellers in it. If you're in one that doesn't have any short sellers in it, nobody to buy it on the way down. And that's kind of what we're looking at Intuitive Surgical and some of the other stocks that without anybody there, there's kind of a big air pocket almost instantaneously on selling that breaks through any of the standard standard deviations in a stock. So that is always something interesting. But, you know, this went right back to where this thing went off at on February 11th at 520 bucks. But again, a fairly big air pocket. And what else can you say going into earnings? To 3M, we were looking at that bouncing around its highs. Now, it's holding up for Minnesota Mining and Machinery. So it is 3M's. 5.56 million share high on September 21st of last year. That was 216.51 gets you into that today up and above it with 1 million shares. So again, is it horrible? Well, it certainly is on the volume today. Certainly is the volume last handful of days. Generally, you don't like that in a stock. What else do we have? Match Group, looking at this one. Now, this one is another one that kind of took a beating. I don't think mostly because what they're involved in, that they'll be around in 10 years. The question is, when does something come out that really destroys what these guys do, their grinder and all the other kind of apps, as people call them hookup apps. I'm just assuming that one day there will be yet another disease out there that will keep everybody from doing what they are doing on those things. But at the same time, how do you make money? Is it a squeaky clean business with no problems or is it a problem that we know in these kind of dating apps that have always ended up being sensationalized Hollywood movies after a while? That was kind of the thorn in the paw of these businesses. But certainly, when you have almost 10 million shares and all you can get is 3 million shares on April 16th. That's telling you that there aren't a lot more people willing to dive in to this one before we go. What else do we have? PPG. Again, if we open up lower gap down, you want to watch a few of these stocks, especially today, that did have decent pops. But if this thing gaps down on Monday, I would look very hard at the automotive industry and see what they're doing too. If they continue to do that, PPG makes a lot of paint and windshields for cars. I think that's telling you a lot about the auto industry if this thing does gap down. Skyworks Solutions, as we talked about this, went into the $90 high of November 1st of 2018. That had 1.85 million shares. The last couple of days, you had 2 million shares and you had 3 million shares, and it still couldn't hold that high and rotate back down inside. Things actually probably look a little bit better for the cell phone business than they did in past weeks. But again, it doesn't matter if the market turns against you. If people won't buy higher highs, if the volume goes away, yeah, can they go a little higher? But you're always waiting for that snap that we saw in two to two surgical last couple of days because that's how they will crack. I'm not doing that. I got an email about what I'm watching these days. Bosch, season five this weekend, is new on Amazon Prime. I got rid of Netflix because it just seemed like nothing on there that I wanted to watch. Trying to think anything else. I'm watching The Rookie on ABC and it may be because I met the actor that's the star of that movie early on when he was doing Firefly in what, 2000 or 2001? So I know him, so maybe, and he was nice and wouldn't like everybody else I've met out in Hollywood that was an actor, a pretty level headed dude. Trying to think of anything else. Watch that. Trying to think of anything else. That's about it. So when I come back, I'm going to actually be wheels up at about four o'clock today. And we're going to be spending a few days doing some sailing down on Marathon Island and the Keys. Weather seems to be good. So I'll come back hopefully worn out and exhausted, which is what vacations are supposed to be, aren't they? But that should be good. I will be on Monday talking about the rollout of the latest edition of the Art of Timing the Trade charts and got everything fixed and ready to go. And that's it. We've got somebody else's. Okay. Okay. There you go. Some other people writing me here but it didn't have anything to do with the market or anything I want to talk about. Okay. Let's look at a few more. VLO. The numbers came out right before the show from the Baker Hughes numbers on rig count. Rig count was down. And, you know, we're basically at the last week where we should see rig counts down. From now on, we should only see production higher. Rig counts higher. More gasoline as most of those refineries have now got switched over from their winter formulas to their summer formulas. So we should see nothing but huge production numbers from now on. And again, when we get into Wednesday, we start seeing crude start to roll over. The XLE and a lot of these stocks that basically hit highs out here on light volume should be very interesting to me because of the cost of short. The XLE, look at that. I mean, it's done nothing but go sideways here for 79 trading days. Down a little bit today. Anyway, we'll be back in short. Wrap up the show. 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Get your two-week free trial to Basil's newsletter of the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com. Also, a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. Jeff from New Jersey. Do we have you on the line? Yes. Hi, David. How are you? Fantastic. So what are we going to talk about today? Well, today's question is, I know we don't have much time. I do a lot of testing of setups to see if they're effective and worth employing or not. And believe it or not, I do all my testing manually, looking at charts on the screen and creating big spreadsheets. And I'd like to automate that. And I wanted to ask your advice on what you'd recommend as the best platform to do a lot of testing. The top two from a little bit of research and conversations I've had is grade station and thinkorswim. Thinkorswim, especially because they have that huge database of history, of price movement, of all kinds of things, options, everything, so that you can go back and sort of play a DVR, you know, and set up on there. But you're talking about all straight backtesting, right? Yeah, backtesting. Yeah. You know what backtesting is called? Backtesting? It's called curve fitting. One of the things that you want to do is you'll find patterns that really don't mean anything. And that's generally the problem with traditional back checking. Did I email you last week? You did. About, yeah, about... Sample size. Rapid minor? Well, I've been focused on the sample size calculation. I haven't looked at that much. I sent you a link for Rapid minor. I think you'd be well, even if you're not going to use it, be well, we're spending some time with that because you're going to look at how they split up data, right? So that you don't just do straight backtesting, but you do forward testing too. And why don't you call me Monday when we've got some more time? But the idea of just doing straight backtesting is generally fraught with error. And we'll talk about that. In the meantime, sell when you can, not when you have to. And we will see you here Monday. Same bat channel. Thank you. Same bat time.