 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a delightful slate of wild card games coming up this weekend in the NFL We're gonna break down those games with doctor at fang getting his rate on the betting markets right now at Fandall sports But can letting you know where he sees value across this weekend's key games This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Thursday by doctor at fang You can find his work on Twitter at the power. I can find it at the power rank commas. Well, Ed You're wearing your Michigan hat as Michigan was the victor on Monday fantastic game for your Wolverines. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. I was up a little bit too late on Monday night celebrating after the game. I did not go to bed 1130, but Don't really win the national championship every day So you have to have to enjoy it. I thought you know I mean the first half kind of turned out exactly like I thought Michigan was able to run the ball and Then got a little tight in the third quarter, but Michigan's defense played a lot better than I thought they could I thought they were tremendous the defensive line did such amazing job against a Great Washington offensive line. So yeah, everything everything worked out and everyone in our was pretty happy by the middle of the fourth quarter Yeah, it was a fun game and it was one of those where The sentiment on Twitter was okay, Washington has gotten destroyed in the first half but they're down just a couple of points and I feel like in those situations if You are looking at the stats and realizing a team is dominated You should probably bank on regression for them in second half positive regression in the sense that in Michigan is dominating the first half But the score is tight Then you should probably expect them to play better in the second half get better results because it seemed like there was a lot Of fluky stuff that broke against Michigan in the first half There was the fourth down failed conversion. There were some other things that broke against them It kind of felt like it was a spot where if you were on Michigan I thought they played well in the first half you should be looking at laying the points It was seven and a half at halftime and it was the score was seven points I know Washington got the ball, but it seemed like the overall Sentiment was it'd be a tight second half even though watching the game. It didn't feel that way in the first half Right for sure. I think yeah, I mean the defense played pretty well Michigan's defense played pretty well in the first half as well Yeah, you know, I mean my numbers actually had Washington I mentioned on the show that I did not like that What actually in the other way it did move a little bit towards Michigan before closed before the game kicked off So, yeah, I think everything everything was great. I had Tage Seth give give out the under which also my numbers didn't like and that looked kind of bad in the first quarter, but Again, you know, like I mean the Michigan defense just just played great as good as they could have and and It's gonna be interesting to see I think there are some there's there's gonna be some NFL star Not stars, but there's gonna be some NFL contributors from that defense and now right now None of them are Rated that high on big boards. Like there's no there's no sure for our first rounders on that defense And so it'll be interesting. I mean, I I think the way that unit has played there. There has to be There has to be NFL talent on that team. We'll see who it is whether it's Chris Jenkins Whether it's will Johnson the cornerback Whether it's a player that comes out this year or maybe next year. It'll be interesting to follow that I was gonna say the stars of the defense for two guys who are not eligible for the draft yet The interior linemen like they were the guys who were getting penics off platform Disrupting the game quite a bit and they're both true sophomores. So I think that's where your your star talent is next year's big board Maybe they look a bit different for that Michigan defense as well So congrats to Michigan fun season fun year Hopefully a profitable for one for all of you as well We'll shift our focus and talk some NFL here in just one second to get you ready Going through key wild card games and letting you know where Ed sees value for this week The first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast I had my first look at this late back on Monday breaking down where my numbers showed value for this week We'll also have a player prop episode with the JJ Zachary's and coming up tomorrow right here in this exact same feed So make sure subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcasts or Spotify And you can also find this show on a fandal TV plus and the fandal YouTube page when it comes to the NFL playoffs You've got to win one game at a time when you bet the NFL playoffs on fandal one game can mean a lot of wins Fandal America's number one sportsbook has all your favorite bets like the money line and spread and there's all sorts of prop bets like Quarterback passing yards or who will score the first touchdown plus every day. There's an NFL playoff game Fandals giving all customers a no sweat same game parlay That means when you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payday You'll get bonus bets back if your SGP doesn't win Make every moment more with Fandal an official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus than president select states Minimum three leg parlay required refund issued is not with trouble bonus bets which expire seven days after a seat Max refund $5 unless otherwise specified Restricted applies he terms that sportsbook dot fandal calm Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 100 gambler Over the fandal comm slash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont welcome to you Vermont as of today call 100 next step protect next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona 1 888 789 777 7 over the ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1 809 with an Indiana 105 2 2 4700 visit chaos gambling health comm in Kansas 1877 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland Call 105 2 2 4700 Wyoming or visit 100 gambler net in West Virginia now and before I dig into some of the playoff games this weekend I didn't want to talk to you about your overall process of the playoffs any tweaks for you when you're betting things when we go to the postseason versus what you do during the regular season No tweaks for me I mean, you know you have the same players out there like you do during regular season games It's not like an NBA situation where stars are gonna play more. It's pretty much the same process for me We can talk a little bit about Keeping priors in and stuff like that Usually I do there are two teams this year that I've gotten rid of them for and we'll talk about one of them so that's a little bit different for me this year and And I think it makes sense. I think sometimes you just have to say that This team is completely different from from what we thought and you know what we thought of them You know on September 4th or whenever the day before the season kicked off just kind of doesn't really apply right now In most cases it does but in some cases it doesn't I mean I guess I guess the prior has been thrown out when when you have a different quarterback as well, so So that applies to a team like Cleveland, but Yeah, so those are process changes But it's not like it's any different than it was week 17 when The the same I was using the same type of numbers, right for sure I think from a non spread in total perspective other key changes that props are up earlier this week Then they are typically at least a faddle typically fandals on Friday But they were up earlier on this week So if you are a prop person and you want to make sure you're getting the most official or the least efficient lines I should say look earlier those are up going up earlier in the weeks If you want to bet some props you can do so earlier in the week Then you can during the regular season just because there's less on the traders minds and stuff like that So I think that's the other key difference is if you want to bet some props check out props Not sure and you're interception props that I didn't check on those but you're maybe getting those up Okay, so interception props up as well So that's the other tweak is checking out props earlier in the week in order to get to the least efficient lines Let's talk about you You know, it's interesting. I was looking at those this morning. There's actually not an interception prop up for Jalen Hertz We're not talking about that game, but he does have a finger issue. He does and AJ Brown's not practicing Yeah, what's that AJ Brown's not practicing Thursday either Right and I I feel almost certain that those two guys are gonna play just knowing them as players But it's also interesting to me that the books haven't put up markets I don't know about Brown, but they haven't put up markets for hurts I've been staring at the I had the bucks in this game and I've been stare I've been waiting to get some movement in my favor and I've not it's moved against me Hasn't happened yet see what happens before kick. Yeah, I I'm surprised it hasn't moved based on her saying he hasn't thrown a football since Sunday I thought we might get some movement, but it hasn't happened yet So we'll see where things go as we get into Monday. Let's start off with Saturday No, but talk about the peacock game. We got the Dolphins at the chiefs in a very chilly Kansas City on Saturday night right now It is the chiefs minus four and a half at Fandall Sportsburg total in this game is 44 and a half and and it's been a rough year for the chiefs overall this year But I think when you look at the actual like numbers behind the chiefs People might be surprised that they've been better than what we've perceived them to be So what's your view of the chiefs heading into this game and the playoffs? I feel like it's the same story we've been talking about for the latter half of the season The defense has been great, but we know that defensive performance tends to be volatile Do I think their defense can continue to be good? Sure. Am I as sure about that as as I would be about offensive performance? Probably not. Kansas City offense has been a little bit disappointing But you know when you when you have Patrick Holmes and Andy Reed coaching them up And you have a guy like Rashi Rice that is is starting to merge as a star You know that they have the potential to get the job done I think the most interesting part about this game is the other side of the ball What what Miami's doing and you know, like We kind of talked about whether Miami's defense was getting better Late in the season. I'm not really sure that that's the case because you know, they've been pretty bad the last two weeks Baltimore had a 68% passing success rate And that was without Mark Andrews one of their one of their key weapons Buffalo at 56% the NFL average is about 41 And they're just so banged up on that side of the ball. I mean, there's just so many injuries I don't even know where to start It's a bad Miami defense. I think the matchup is there for the chiefs My numbers actually make this Chiefs by about five and a half that actually doesn't include any type of bonus for having a Bi-week because a lot of the key players didn't sit last week. I usually use about yeah, bi-week is an interesting thing in the NFL because When you want to do it correctly and you want to you know, you don't want to just say what is a bi-week from now until 2000 right and when you do the analysis, it's You know, you get that it's about a point or point eight points or something like that But you the air bars are just huge. They're like about a point So we're not completely sure that by rest the bi-week advantage exists. I still use it my model I would probably throw another half point on there So actually there's a little bit of value in chiefs here I know it's it's a little bit that seems a little crazy with with some of the struggles that they've had but It's just that Yeah, this Miami defense is Not good and I do see a lot of cases where Kansas City can run away with us I think they can run away with and I also think that they keep this game low scoring both because of their defense and because of the fact that like They can run the football both as a team But also I think against this dolphin's defense like the edge rushers matter for the pass rush but they also matter in terms of rush defense and it's not like the dolphins have excelled there overall this year to begin with and like the The thesis of a Vic Fangio defense is stop the pass You don't want teams to beat you downfield it the Forte is not typically stopping the ground game So I think we'll see actually both teams be pretty efficient on the ground here It's like the under at 44 and a half. I've got this at 41.9 and Temperature is not in my model. Maybe it should be I saw I don't know I don't care what the temperature is that's about winds and that's part of why The temperature has gotten discussion this week is because the wind shows very low Because wind speeds now are 14 miles per hour once you put in a 14 mile per hour winds You get this above a key number of 44 that makes it pretty intriguing to me So it sounds like we're both overall a bit down on this dolphins offense, too it's not just that their defense isn't great, but like I do think that like they have good numbers overall this year, but like it just feels weird to like View the the dolphins offense such an afterthought now and like I'm doing it, too It just feels weird that like we've written them off because I have to and I just don't know How to turn them around at this point I May have written them off, but my model certainly hasn't I mean It's using numbers from the entire season where it says that you know They're they're passing success rate is only a tick off of where San Francisco is like that's all in there and I still You know, I still have Kansas City by five and a half and probably more with the buy Yeah, I mean write them off a little bit. I still think they can be explosive. Can they certainly score? Sure, but we need to see it and Yeah, I would lead in the other way. All right So I'd like the cheese minus four and a half at minus 110 and I like the under 44 and a half at minus 120 Right now if you handle sportsbook, it's also 44 most other spots So if you don't want to pay lay the minus 120 could do that instead of things you push on a key number of 44 let's talk now about the two fun Sunday games beginning with the Packers at the Cowboys were as of a couple of minutes ago about 10 minutes ago Here on Thursday. It's not a seven point spread Dallas minus seven. I was seven and a half before it's now seven total in this game is 50 and a half and this Packers defense has been brutal Ed But the offense has been I think really really good so far this year So can they do enough here on offense to keep pace and cover this spread against Dallas? Yeah, I think Green Bay's offense is the most interesting thing I've seen in the NFL in a while So let's break it down a little bit You know, they they lost Pittsburgh week 10. They had a three and six record and by my Justin passing success rate They were 25th. So that's pretty terrible. I Looked again, you know, my numbers have been showing much value on Green Bay So I haven't been following their numbers week by week But after this past week beating Chicago, they actually ranked sixth in my Justin passing success rate for the season And that's kind of insane. I mean, we know they've been playing well six and two record They make the playoffs all of a sudden Jordan Love has gone from question mark to Maybe this guy's the answer. Maybe he's you know, the third of Alana quarterbacks for for the franchise. I decided to go back in and So everything I do now breaks it down by quarterback, right? And so it's pretty easy to go back into the data and assign Jordan Love one and Jordan Love two To separate the first ten weeks from from the last part of the season and the results are insane They actually I have an expected passing success rate of 50.6 percent Against an average defense. So again, the NFL average is 42 percent that's actually better than San Francisco's been for the season who's number one am I passing success rate and You got you also have to like there's certain there's almost certainly okay Passing success rate is going to be the most predictive stat going forward So there's that going for it But then also you got a look that like this is a first-year starter in Jordan Love and it's not like he's got an established set of receivers There either like he's throwing the people like Bo Melton who's a second-year player got his first target a couple weeks ago Jalen Reed who's a rookie at least he was a second-round pick like it's not There's definitely some noise in here But I thought it was remarkable that Green Bay's offense has been better than like been the best in the league Since since week 10 so it's a little bit crazy Anyways, like overall like my numbers actually like Dallas by about 6.3 points in here Definitely sells in value a pack plus seven and a half Yes, the defense is terrible, but defensive performance is volatile So when you're worse than the NFL the expectation is which way are you gonna go? It's probably up probably getting better Offensive performance, especially passing success rate tends to be sticky and that's where they've been really good the last part of the season So, you know probably not a lot of value Green Bay plus seven But I do think that's the the side that I would be yeah I mean looking at the numbers on Jordan love and Jordan love is not a guy I was super high on entering the NFL or entering this year specifically, but like you look at the numbers and like How do you dismiss him at this point given how well they played? You were talking about first half of the year versus second half of the year Which makes sense because he's a first-time starter getting more comfortable and stuff like that He was efficient early in the year, but based on fluky plays so the success rate there would have been lower But then second half of the year. He's had that high success rates even with Constantly changing pieces in his skill guys like Luke Musgrave lacerated his kidney at one point Christian Watson has missed a good chunk of those games. He didn't read his missed halves of certain games They've had a lot of injuries and yet the constant has been efficiency out of Jordan love the entire time so when I look at that and my number show value I've got the Cowboys minus five and a half in this game I'm going to believe it and I love the Cowboys think they're a very good offense, especially when they're at home They're playing indoors. They can cook when they're in that situation like I like the Cowboys a lot But I think when the Packers are plus seven and a half they were the proper side in this game despite that So I agree to you I think that we have to give all due respect to this Packers offense appreciate what they've done and Honestly, I'm having a hard time being skeptical of them going forward because it's been a long sample And they're now getting healthier on offense, which is a pretty rare combination For sure. You think about how the markets react, right? This market is pretty much In line with my numbers which are based on season-long averages and and for the NFL I believe that that is the right thing to do this were a college game And you know like this Green Bay were I don't know like, you know, the type of forms we've seen out of LSU this year This game would be like Dallas minus three. Yeah So that's probably not the correct answer, I mean, you know how bad Green Bay's answer is With how bad Green Bay's defense is but it's interesting to think about the different ways that that you make these point spreads and You know, I mean, I do tend to believe on my season-long averages and I think that's the right way to go But you do need to put that in context Do you need to understand that Jordan loves a first-year quarterback? You know, maybe we are getting some strong signal in the second half of the season and Yeah, I mean, that's that's why the lean is on the Packers Yeah, I think that they are a fun team that I want to buy into with where things stand right now I also would say that despite the fact this total is very high. I'm actually in line with it I'm at forty nine point five, which is close enough to the total where I think that we should be see a pretty fun game on Sunday similar thing could be said about the Sunday night game total in this one for the Iran's in the Lions 51 and a half. I've got forty eight point eight It's not quite that high but still very very high for a game with a tight spread So it's arrows up, baby We get to watch the Lions and the Rams Matthew Stafford versus Jared golf in this one right now Lions are three point favorites. The minus three is minus 118 on the Lions here So Ed when you look at this game, it could be a lot of fun. How do you see this one playing out? Yeah, I think it is gonna be a lot of fun and but maybe not so much for Lions fans This is a game in which for the Rams I just don't believe that the preseason prior matters anymore Preseason, we thought this was a bottom five team a very fragile team with a quarterback like Matthew Stafford that could get hurt You know, we saw how bad they were last year A team that's built on stars and then a couple injuries can mess with those stars He came in the season and Cooper Cup was gonna be hurt for first month of the season We thought this was about a five team. This is clearly not a bottom five team You have Cooper Cup back or those numbers have been down Stafford's been great and Pukka Nukua has been the biggest revelation at receiver For a while for especially for a low-round pick if you look at his numbers look at his targets I mean, there's basically no way to To look at that guy and not say he's been an absolute revelation this year Their defensive numbers have been pretty good as well. And then you look at the Detroit side. Yeah, their offense has been amazing but Sam Laporta seemed like he absolutely wasn't gonna play after he got injured last week There's a chance he might play the rookie tight end who's been great So that's actually good news that he's only listed as questionable. Cleve Ramon is also listed as questionable You know, I'm on Ross a brow It's clearly the the primary guy on that offense But you really don't want to lose those two guys in such a critical playoff game against the Rams defense that You know at is at least NFL average if not better. They're actually better in my passing success rate numbers but that's probably a little bit fluky and You know, I mean the worst unit out on the field is gonna be the Lions defense This is this is a bottom-10 unit by the numbers I find it hilarious that Aaron Glenn is is getting interviews for head coaching positions because I don't feel like anyone has looked at How this defense done over the past year three years because because it hasn't been good they do get Safety CJ Gardner Johnson back they got him back last week looks like he is back that should help But I Don't know. I mean, it's not a great spot for the Lions. Even though they have this home game as the division winner. I What do I have I have I think I have the Rams by I Have the Rams by like a point. I sorry. I have the Lions by about a point point and a half something like that So showing value on the Rams. I do think that is the right side Obviously better when this was Rams plus three and a half, but still a little bit of value here could be a rough night in Detroit Yeah, as you mentioned the plus three right now on the Rams is minus one of four at Fandall Sportsbook and I I get it. I'm in line with market here. I've got Lions minus three point seven So pretty much it aligned with the with where Fandall Sportsbook has a given that's minus one eighteen on the minus three but I also Do worry about that number and I'm skeptical of which is why I've not bet this game either way Because I think the Rams have played a lot better down the stretch this year I think they're kind of similar to the Packers honestly in a weird way where you were talking about how if you look at what they did The second half of the year They're much better team, but the Rams got Kyron Williams back second half of the year. Cooper Cup has looked better I still think he's like kind of banged up still honestly, but like when they Took down the Browns defense on the road and then the next week went to Or two weeks later face the Ravens in the road moving the ball in both those defense I think they put up 30 in both those games right that said to me that this Rams team was Legitimate offense and good enough on defense like you know They they kept come back player of the year Joe Flacco and check, you know What else could they possibly do to prove that they're legitimate? So I I didn't bet this one I'm not gonna bet this one as far as the side goes because I think that the Rams have shown a lot of improvement and to me I think they're a legitimately very good team that I don't really want to bet against right now For sure I completely agree with that and the idea that it's not out of the question that the Packers are alive in the playoffs Head of Detroit past this weekend. Yeah, and the idea that that could possibly happen a couple months ago is just Kind of insane like obviously it's more likely that Detroit wins and right roommate doesn't but it's not out of the question That green may goes further in the playoffs so interesting turn of events and and You know, this is just not the best matchup for Detroit and the interview situation makes it worse Yeah, they would need Gardner Johnson to be a legit difference maker right away to get there Cuz like if you look at their early season numbers their first couple weeks They were okay defensively like the first four or so weeks and then the injuries piled up Not just CJ Gardner Johnson though There were other ones too that happened and so it's not I don't think that getting him back will be the Cure all for those woes that they show Yeah, and like, you know Everyone was very excited bringing in Emmanuel Mosley and camsut and to play the cornerback position Mosley's been hurt like he always is and camsut has been bad. He's played almost every snap and he's been bad So can he magically turn it around? Well, I mean the lines really need that to happen. Yeah As a person who grew up a Jets fan. I do root for erin glenn. I want to do well It's upsetting to me see that he has gray hair now because I grew up like Routing for this guy pretty hard. So I want him to do well He was great. It is like the the most liked court defense coordinator The athletic did like a survey with the NFL PA. He was number one. Yeah, players coach It's it can be tough when you're when the talent their secondary is not great But that's not changing. So But maybe he is a great defensive coordinator and the lines would be so much worse if it weren't for his Tactical genius on that side of the ball given the talent that he's got. Yeah, I just want to see my guy thrive So, uh, hopefully he's back in Detroit next year with some better talent. He can actually show What he's got back there. That's all he got for today here on covering the spread But Ed I am loving the way things are setting up for next round the divisional round I think it's going to be an absolute blast. Hopefully, you know, you can get the Rams Plus three get that win. But then the Lions vans keep the good vibe slowing in, uh, Michigan For the next couple of weeks as well. What is going on for you this week over at the powering? I had a great conversation with cleave ta. He is a, uh, NFL analyst better runs cleave analytics, uh Asked him a lot about jo flacco because he's a cleveland fan and analyst He actually did some really interesting things about their defense as well How to beat it? So check that out on the football analytic show wherever you get your podcasts and then, uh, I'm still wearing my free email newsletter Um, check that out at the power rank.com if you're looking for action on any given weekend Uh, I publish five and I'll get saturday and I've been thinking about it Jim like like the newsletter is kind of the only form that really Well, it makes it possible because like, you know, I try to put props in there and a lot of that stuff During the regular season doesn't happen until friday night if i'm trying to curate from other people, right? so like You know, it's one of these things where it would be really hard to do a video show or a pod But the newsletter kind of works. I'm able to put it together. It comes out saturday at 10 a.m We'll definitely have a nice array of bets in there this week, especially probably only NFL this week because It's wild card weekend. Uh, but check that out at the power rank dot com And saturday 10 a.m. Is more than no time to get your isaiah pacheco props in before He goes bananas on saturday night for the chiefs against the dolphins find ed on twitter at the power rank You can find that newsletter by going to the power rank dot com and check out the podcast as well The football analytics show wherever you get your podcast. I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and you can follow fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research Good luck to all of you across this weekend We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some player props with jj. Zachary's and this has been covering the spread right here On the fan dual podcast network