 so the attendance paper is circulating start from here again newcomers please sign only once for this hour not twice as you are not here last hour all right so please in the previous slide I was talking about the changing profile of terrorist groups their motivations their organization and their capabilities are changing this does not mean that the so-called old school or old-fashioned or traditional or older however you name it this doesn't mean that these groups are out are obsolete no they exist they still continue to carry out attacks or pursue whatever goals they have but what is important to underline here is that of course if you are to concentrate ourselves on one of the threats on the horizon it is worth considering more especially the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction no matter how low the probability might be but should it occur the consequences of an attack with weapons of mass destruction even if it is not a sophisticated attack or even if it may not be yield the the result that may naturally come from a weapons of mass destruction attacks still they say very scary scenario because I mean there are certain reasons why the chain the new type of transnational terrorist organizations may wish to carry out attacks with weapons of mass destruction there are certain reasons yes of course there is this debate going on in academia as well as in the security circles what is this is a really serious threat how serious is the threat posed by the you know terrorist activities with weapons of mass destruction I'm going to open a website here let's where is it sorry this is the website of the center of excellence defense against terrorism did I write correctly silly dot I guess here we go I mean here this is the journal where I'm the editor in chief if you send an article you may have an image to get it published of course provided it's a good one and this is volume 2 number 2 that is fall 2009 and I suggest all of you to read this article do we really need to worry some reflections on the threat of nuclear terrorism by Peter Zimmerman he is one of the very few people who can really make any comment on this subject because some people tend to exaggerate the dimensions of the problem with respect to the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction terrorism because they do not they do not know necessarily the technicalities or the scientific aspects of this as to how this could be realized and but on the other hand some tend to under undermine the threat or underestimate not only the probability but also the consequences on the grounds that well so far there have there has not been any significant you know attack with weapons of mass destruction why should we worry that much Peter Zimmerman actually is making this analysis not just by blah blah not at all but he is saying here are the capabilities here are the technical scientific capabilities material capabilities and who here is what is needed to carry out this kind of attacks and here are the capabilities of organizations and therefore this is possible on that hand the second article Charles Ferguson again a friend and he is now the president of Federation of American Scientist FAS is one of the think tanks and which maintains a very important website where which most researchers around the world visit from time to time because it is very rich in terms of knowledge information FAS.org Charles Ferguson and Misha Smith they have co-authored this piece and it says the possibility of and also the effects consequence of a radiological attack and this is something what that most people knowing or unknowingly correctly or incorrectly call dirty bombs not sophisticated weapons not weapons per se that could that might have any military usefulness but something that can cause you know the effects that I will just mention in a moment and therefore we which are actually such weapons within the reach of terrorist organizations and both authors explaining very much detail and these are articles that you are definitely required to read by the time of the final exam so the website go ahead here COA dot NATO int and this is center of excellence defense against terrorism this is defense against terrorism review and well this is the editor's note you may or may not read it you know this guy and Peter Zimmerman and Charles Ferguson two leading authorities in the world who may have a lot to say about this issue of course others are suggested to read well Rohan no I'm him actually is one of the most people called next generation brightest scientists he's still doing his PhD in Israel so therefore the two the first two articles are required and in which you will sort of read in much more detail and understand proper life of issues that I am now going to mention here so why WMD why is it that oops what the problem is have you watched National Security the movie National Security no okay so the reason why WMD might be attractive or might be the weapon of choice by the new type of terrorist organizations are a few actually but before going on this with this subject I would like to emphasize something of course I cannot make a definitive comment I cannot say the so-called traditional or old-school old-fashioned or older or the previously existing terrorist organizations if you want to be much descriptive these kind of terrorist organizations would most likely not resort to weapons of mass destruction because they have they are politically motivated they are ideologically motivated they have separatist ambitions and in order to sort of pursue their ambitions their goals they need not only logistical support financial support or otherwise they also need political support and most ideologically motivated separatist you know old-fashioned sort of speak terrorist organizations need to create a certain degree of legitimacy in the eyes of if not their own population I mean the population with where within which they operate but in the eyes of the world populations so they need a certain degree of sympathy they need a certain degree of legitimacy and therefore by carrying out a attacks with weapons of mass destruction they would they they will most likely if they do so they will most likely lose this legitimacy or a huge proportion of it so it is not expected from terrorist organizations like the PKK the IRA the ETA and Temmels do not exist anymore well you know of course there are people mutants spread to different parts of the world because of the heavy attack that they so they were subject to and there is an article in this journal in the coming issue actually on the Tamil Tigers anyway by Amit Hashim is not Amit Hashim that you know from Turkish novel but an expert on this issue and because these organizations would not like to lose the legitimacy that they have built pens taking lay in the eyes of large populations around the world so weapons of mass destruction I cannot say definitely I cannot say well they will never no one can say no one can know what might be the weapon of choice by terrorist organizations for reasons that I mentioned here terrorist organization this also applicable to transnational terrorist organizations they are not necessarily bound by moral restraints so you cannot expect a certain degree of more morality or a certain degree of responsible behavior if the so-called traditional terrorist organizations will not resort to weapons of mass destruction this is most likely not definitive of course this is not because this is in this is found to be immoral by them I don't think they have any such concerns but this is not found to be practical and this is something that may cause a huge drop in the legitimacy in the eyes of the rest of the population so therefore weapons of mass destruction might be preferred if at all are going to be preferred might be preferred by what we call the transnational terrorist organizations which are motivated by religious beliefs or mystical beliefs because they are not bound by moral restraint of political ideology then they would require them to seek the support of populations within which they operate and the second reason is some transnational terrorist organizations are reportedly committed to taking the revenge of millions who have been allegedly victimized in the hands of the infidels well what does this mean there are reports or news that we see from time-to-time that the leadership cadre in an individual or just a you know a note sent to the press or a video or something broadcast on news channels and there is this talk of you know crusaders you know taking the lives of millions of Muslims around the world of course most most specifically in the greater Middle Eastern area and so far throughout history there were you know five or six or so millions of them who were killed in the hands of the crusaders and their revenge will be taken this is for sure this is what what is you know propagated and they say you know we are going to take this revenge so considering that on 9 11 on September 11 2001 there were approximately 3,000 people who were killed in that incident and if we talk about millions like six millions or three millions of Muslims killed in the hands of the infidels throughout this crusade crusades well of course by such individual attacks which make claim the lives of say 5,000 and 10,000 well that requires a number of or maybe thousands of such attacks but an attack with weapons of mass destruction with with a nuclear weapon for instance or chemical or biological weapons or by radiological material the casual trait might be much higher and therefore if these groups as reported in the media or in some academic research if they are after taking the revenge of the millions of people and if they are going to attack they would most like to prefer weapons of mass destruction in order to attain such a goal so this there is this logical consequence there is this correlation which makes the possibility and therefore the probability and because of possible it and the probability of the WMD weapons of mass destruction being the weapon of choice a much bigger one in terms of probability and as I just mentioned here in the previous hour access to nuclear chemical biologic weapons and material use in the manufacture of these weapons well I don't mean to say it's all easy I mean if you just go with a you know suitcase full of greens and banknotes of thousands of millions of dollars whatever you can just you know shop around well give me two chemical weapons and well just one package of biological agents and well to SS 20s well you cannot do so easily of course this is not that an open market but for countries or groups transnational networks because they are actually common rods I mean friends against the common enemy they may easily cooperate in opening the each other's illicit network by you know through this networks they may have access to these weapons or the material well I never said this it is easy sometimes even though I emphasize this maybe ten times in the exam papers to this right it is very easy to get one well no one is saying that no one says it is easy but for transnational networks which have access to other networks which are committed and which are in dough which have in dough themselves with competent people some of them are former security analysts some of them are meter personnel high ranking some of them are even diplomats or scientists they know where to go how to go whom to meet and what to get and what to assemble together so for committed groups and states these are not beyond the reach and these are not extremely difficult I don't mean to say it's easy not at all but something that is doable so therefore when combined with this ambition and this possibility WMD is not a remote possibility anymore and there's also another factor the fear factor is something that makes it all the more attractive because even if the WMD attack may not be successful or may not yield the results the terrorist organization may have expected from the weapon or the material they used the fear factor that the havoc that will be created among the public and people say look you know these are so powerful these are so capable people that even there are you know tens of dozens or country states fighting against them they can still stage these attacks in the middle of a city here so this will cause a fear among society which is one of the most important if not the most important sort of objectives of terrorist organizations to cause fear among the population because after all no terrorist activity is without a purpose and in most cases if not in all because there are certain targeted assassinations but in most cases targets are or the victims are not necessarily targets these are not people who are necessarily you know whose lives mean anything to the terrorist organizations but the mere fact that there are high rate of casualties and type of weapon may cause huge amount of fear within the society when we talk about weapons of mass destruction you know very well we talk about basically three categories of weapons nuclear weapons and chemical weapons and biological weapons and nuclear weapons are explosive devices that this is my definition I don't know where it's a good one that just you know bear in mind our explosive devices that release huge amounts of energy and radiation achieved by splitting the fissile material highly entertaining or plutonium so nuclear weapons we have seen the effects in well at least in documentaries we have seen the effects of the explosions in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in a simply second thousands of people died and other tens of tons of others died from radiation from cancer from burning bodies etc chemical weapons are actually toxic chemical substances that cause incapacitation incapacitation means you cannot move you cannot do anything you cannot fight you can just even you can barely survive cause incapacitation injury or death of humans and animals due to severe burnings and their effects on the nervous or respiratory system because these are chemical substances mostly in form of gas some of them are in liquid form and of course depending on which type of chemical weapons the effects may be faster slower or wider in terms of outreach etc and biological weapons actually the term biological weapon is a misnomer is not a proper term because biological agents are living microorganisms which are deliberately spread into the air into the atmosphere in order to cause infectious diseases for again incapacitating people or killing the target population including humans animals and plants so these are three different categories of weapons which are not necessarily totally beyond the reach of terrorist organizations especially transnational terrorist organizations because the classical ones for reasons that I explained even if they may have access to these weapons even if they can get these weapons they may not necessarily use in their attacks because they would not like most probably we don't we cannot make any definitive comment but they would not like to lose their legitimacy whatever legitimacy that might be in the eyes of other countries populations and therefore these three categories of weapons as a certain you know other category which is called radiological weapons or dirty bombs these are you know so-called material not necessarily a weapon because a weapon is a minute or turn weapon is something whose consequences or the extent of the yield the effect is more or less known to the commander in the battlefield you know you know what kind of effect a nuclear weapons nuclear weapon might have or chemical or biological weapon but there are certain material radiological materials or some dump chemicals some if not you know purely worked out but some you know some raw agents let's say if explode or just spread into the air may still cause if not you know large numbers of casualties but may create havoc or just panic in the society of course the question is after you know where the terrorist organizations would or could use WMD and having seen what type of WMD exists you know in the world and which one and why might be the weapon of choice the most preferred so I would like to concentrate a little bit on this subject which is something which hopefully not yet became a reality but you know this is one of the scary scenarios in my mind I mean this is something that you know keeps me awake of course I'm not in a position to make anything concrete other than you know raising awareness in the public or teaching you the subject for some of you in your future capacities might somehow pay more attention when you become a politician or a decision maker but something that or whose past probability as well as possibility concern me a lot and this is of course indeed and in principle all categories of weapons of mass distraction are equally attractive especially to transnational terrorist organizations but nuclear and chemical materials are visible and they also detectable because they emit radiation and it is difficult to smuggle these material because transnational terrorist organizations they would need some very you know specific hideouts some some places where they would have to develop something if not a weapon but something crude something dirty well bomb whatever and they would have to do beyond reach of you know security forces away from the eyes of the intelligence units etc but still they would have to you know mobile in certain times because they would have to take some material from one place to another and considering that there are thousands of detectors everywhere in big cities especially chemical substance detectors nuclear material detectors as well as biological bio agents detectors it is very difficult to smuggle these but it is all the more difficult in the nuclear and chemical area because you know even the the lowest non-sophisticated detected detecting machines detectors might detect them but biological agents are not that easy to detect and of course there are many ways of carrying this because these are living organisms and they can be carried out within the body of a sick man who's I mean who may carry a contagious you know illness or there are other methods there are other motives and whatever so certain unique features of biological agents make biologic weapons unfortunately I use this as a in quotations as perfect terrorist weapons of choice these are weapons that may be preferred by terrorist organizations for reasons that I will explain right in the next slide here the threat of biological weapons and bioterrorism actually this is a separate field this is separate exposit that I you know had several times I use in my conferences classes and you can find again on my website as a separate presentation but I brought in here to this presentation some important slides a for for fullest presentation you may have to go to my website and go to the power points and pick up the one with the threat the title threat of weapons by weapons and bioterrorism biological agents can be dispersed by simple vehicles such as civilian aircraft our agricultural sprayers and when equipped with a fan and specialized ventilators or by choosing just simply an up in location belej tepe in some stadiums as you know somewhere up by watching the wind you can just release the agent that would with the help of the wind may just go toward the you know population center so I mean for a chemical weapon or biological weapon or chemical biological material that would be you know exploded with some high explosives I mean you would have to assemble as some some sort of a sophisticated device that you would have to take from one place to another with some detectable you know deliver deliver vehicles or the material themselves may be detected before they are delivered from one place to another but in the case of biological agents it's they can be delivered by some vehicles that are used almost every now and then everywhere without necessarily giving out any sort of a signal that they are going to do anything a malign anything you know harmful to the population what is important here is because biological agents except for toxins well if this is a spectrum of let's say chemical weapons and biological weapons are a certain material here this area is what I call toxic because toxins are in between this chemical and biological weapons area these are I mean these are artificial material produced I mean artificially generated in labs biological agents are living organisms that are found in nature and toxins are actually in between they are not necessarily living some might be but these are not also they are not necessarily created in in the laboratories but because there are some toxins in nature cobras in them for instance some toxic you know material in the bodies of some animals or some some plants so therefore it is somewhere in between here anyway with the exception of toxins biological agents I mean these are microbes that you know when when you're ill there is a biological agent in your body which infected your body which incapacitated your body to some extent and cause this illness and what makes this a biological weapon quote unquote is that this illness you know what is brought into your body not true natural occurrence like interpersonal communication and by you know by chance you get this micro from someone who is just you know spreading this but in the case of biologic weapons some people deliberately dispersed this into the air and in the past for instance Chinese Japanese have conducted biological weapons tests in Manchuria I mean all throughout the 1920s and 30s especially 1930s before the second war war and they tested biological agents and they observed they visualize which biological agent and how does it kill what is the length of you know illness and what is the type of you know dying or what suffering by the humans etc they tested the Japanese the Imperial Japan not Japan of today of course Imperial Japan tested biological agents on real human people who were most the prisoners and some also were villagers anyway so and these are agents that know cause illness but since they cause this illness just like any illness then you know almost all of you all of us have suffered in the past and maybe in today it takes time it is not like an instant or instantly happening thing like a need to weapon is dropped you know people are killed instantly in a second or chemical weapons are dropped it takes if not minutes or seconds it takes several minutes maybe unless you are properly protected against with the you know gas mask or the gear thing that you you have to put on your body but biological agents once they enter the body and if there's enough dose which enters the body it takes some time to multiply within the body to cause a certain degree of illness and therefore and not only in the human beings but also animals as well as plants so it takes time to develop and sometimes in some cases it may take days and even weeks in some cases some toxins like aflatoxin for instance it causes the liver cancer within three four or five years so the person might be subject to this toxin and within two three years or five years he or she might die just because of this toxin which may be somehow injected to his body or just true inhaling something whatever so therefore biological agents their effects take time days weeks even longer and therefore let's see the next slide due to due to this the the effects that are delayed by agents they can be used for attacking fixed targets which is denser populated residential areas airports naval bases naval ports emergency and other vital public services if a terrorist organization decides to attack a country and wants to kill thousands or or tens of or hundreds of thousands of people and if they think biological agent is the weapon of choice because of some of the quote-unquote advantages from their perspective of course they may wish to use this agent against some fixed targets where the population may be subject or may be exposed to this material to this agent and they can do so without being noticed because when there's an explosion everybody hears and the security are dispatched to the area and people you know created within a certain perimeter they start searching and it sometimes those who are responsible for the attack even if they are they have not died already within the attack if there's not a suicide bombing they can be arrested with some effective search on pursuit of these people because now I mean you know that just five minutes ago there was such a such attack somewhere you heard the explosion and if you take controls in the entry points or exit points of the city and if you just conduct an effective search you may or may not reach to these people who are responsible but in this case it takes days and weeks how can you know when actually that agent was released or who released it anyway so therefore it it it creates a certain advantages from the terrorist perspective because they can after having committed a staged attack they can just disappear go to the farthest distance from the location of attack and they can just disappear within the population because they will most likely not be known when actually they have attacked or when they have staged attack this is something also why budget agents are more attractive to terrorist organizations but not necessary to state in the past as I said like Japan the Imperial Japan in the 30s against the Chinese when they occupied Manchuria or other states have conducted chemical and biological weapons research and they also built these weapons they had certain things in mind there was also the stiff rice between a race between the states with governments so they produced large amounts of chemical and biological weapons especially biological weapons but one thing must be definitely bored in mind is that if an area it could be an open village area or just a residential area if that area is contaminated by a biological agent it is very difficult to decontaminate because I mean if and when chemical weapon or chemical agent is used in an area due to the effects of sun or wind or other weather conditions the chemical substance even by its own just disappear after a while just might take hours or days at most and then that area might be safely used by the large populations but if biological agent is you know used in an area and if the area is contaminated and especially if it's an agriculture area these these agents which are living organisms will somehow survive under the toughest weather conditions from minus 50 degrees Celsius to plus 50 degrees Celsius in you know most freezing or hottest weather conditions climatic conditions and they can be carried from one place to another by birds especially etc so therefore it is not wise for any state to use biological agents in their attacks because if they do not have any ambition to occupy a territory and gain territory well they might use it but still you may never be 100% sure as to whether you can contain the sort of effects of the spread of biological agent we have seen in the SARS in the births flu in swine flu that because of this you know a huge rate of you know transportation of you know transfers of people from one point to another millions of them even the smallest number of incidents may increase overnight so therefore and if a state has any ambition to gain territory it will be totally unwise to use biological agents in that territory because they cannot decontaminate 100% and they cannot open to the residents of their population or to agriculture so it would be loss of the territory even if you fought for it so therefore it is not something that the states would aim in their attacks but since terrorist organizations especially transnational terrorist organizations unlike the so-called traditional separatists which fight for a certain territory transnational terrorist organizations are not known as having any ambition to occupy a territory or separate a territory and therefore because they don't have any such territorial claims even for this reason biological agents might be a weapon of choice in addition to the other factors that might make it more attractive from their perspective and in addition to that of course the cost of establishing a biological weapons program is not as high as any others well of course when compared to IED improvised explosive devices IED improvised explosive device of course this is maybe the cheapest maybe the easiest still there are certain complications but when compared to other categories of weapons of mass destruction biological agents are easier in terms of knowledge required of course still not easy don't write anything like this well it is very easy to have a biological weapons program no not at all but because of the composition of the transnational organization that we mentioned earlier there are people who are well educated who are competent and in their previous occupations careers they may have had access to these weapons or they may have even produced these weapons themselves so you don't know and these people either because of their mystical beliefs or religious beliefs may join the ranks of this kind of transnational organizations or they may be forced to do so or they may be motivated they may be inside it they may be encouraged to join the ranks they may be given large amounts of money or their lives or their family's life may be threatened or they may just you know want to take revenge from the institutions from the country that they were sort of hired as an academic or as a researcher so therefore it is another factor that make it attractive from the terrorist perspective of course what is important here it is the task of the state the you know polity as we call it or the political structures ministries organizations institutions agencies within the state and also international or at the international level or in the international arena they are entitled to take these measures and it is their duty you could they cannot just say well I don't care this is your problem this it's the very purpose of their being their raison d'etre so therefore this is important and there are basically two types of measures that can be taken defensive and offensive measures to preempt or to prevent well this preemption is not necessary type of prevention that W. Bush jr. mentioned in his preempt of war this is preemption in terms of you know stopping or arresting the those who are contemplating of attacking or using any type of weapons of menstruation or any type of weapons in their attacks against most likely innocent civilians or even security forces and doesn't mean that security force are in not innocent either so therefore especially those who are you know serving Dimitri as part of draft they may or may not have any intention to serve the country but they are taken to this position and they have to serve as part of their citizenship duty so therefore it is important to preempt and prevent preempt in order to disrupt to sort of you know take such measures that would before even they start you know carrying the attack or prevent at a time of attack or at some point so these measures are both offensive and defensive let me just go the next stage here within NATO there are such capabilities that are now being put together which I will not go into very much detail and I will send this email PowerPoint slide with with the with an email and there is this WMD Center at the near headquarters which was established about a decade ago which is becoming even more effective every every other year so now there is this issue as to how to prevent it because this is the if not the single most challenge but something that is being recurring as the most threatening theme subject in the what is called the defense white papers or nation security policies strategies strategic documents that you know different governments issue from time to time while on the one hand there is this group of people who differently knowingly and consciously undermined the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction for their own good reason and I'm not in a place to comment on on these sort of arguments because they so believe and they do not believe in the probability even or the possibility of and therefore they do not believe in probability of a you know terrorism with weapons of mass destruction while on the one hand there is this group of people and they say this is all you know conspiracies that like any other conspiracies serve the very purpose of big states in order to keep people on their constant state of mind full of fear in order to impose their hegemonic policies this is one view there is also another view which just look at the capabilities as well as the intentions of the organizations and say as I always say here threat is a combination of capabilities and intentions the problem here of course threat is a combination of capabilities and intentions well we understand from the publications from the broadcasts from the messages or here and there just you know whenever they just surface and they are made public from time to time that existing transnational terrorist networks either directly from their leaders or some of within the leadership cadre they express quite explicitly unequivocally when without any ambiguity they explain their intentions that they want to do certain things they want to cause some damage to particularly a number of countries such as the united states israel in the first place they also threaten some other states for instance in one of the most recent videotapes of Osama bin Laden who is the leader of the al-qaeda network he also threatened turkey or someone from his cadre if not in a direct way but in an indirect way and threatened turkey not to be so close with the united states and especially israel so as not to be also found guilty by them that could divert their attention also towards turkey and might might make turkey target of al-qaeda so therefore intentions of the existing networks i don't think it's debatable it is something that they have made it quite explicit for sure the problem is in order to gauge i mean whether the threat is up or down or constant we have to i mean this is sure constant i mean in the increase i mean they every now and they now and then they explain their plans what about capabilities yes there are some reports conflicting reports which may not be so much convincing about their exact capabilities and it's not always possible to know exactly what you know specifically they may have but looking at what they have done and what they are what kind of people you know are found in these organizations and these disinformation comes from the the ones who are arrested or through intelligence units who are infiltrated into this group they see that you know we can say that if not very fast but the capabilities are also increasing so there is this intention as well as capabilities which are you know going in the direction that we would like to see and therefore threat is something that we could conclude is increasing well again low probability but high and unbearable consequences the the answer to whether the or like peter zimmermann like pete as mentioned in the in his article is here literally we should really be we should be really worried i think it's up to you you will make this judgment yourselves i only try to give you a picture with an unbiased picture to the extent possible based on my research of the objective and scientific research and i talk about their intentions which are rather clear i commented on their capabilities which are known to be there are some hard evidence convincing evidence or substation evidence about increasing capabilities or there are some facilitating factors that may help them increase their capabilities and therefore it is the threat is on the rise well doesn't mean that it's gonna hit tomorrow we don't know or maybe 10 years from today we don't know but the problem is here whether there is regardless of whether this is a low probability high consequence your decision will depend on are you ready to bear the consequences if and when attack is occurred so if you can say i don't care well if it's gonna happen ksr rsr i you can just you know it's not a typical statement ship but you may just not care much about this threat but if you're concerned and if you are if you if you feel responsible then the even the with the lowest probability regarding it capabilities and intentions your calculation of threat posed by especially this type of terrorism and its possible consequences must give you some clue about what kind of decision you should have with respect to this issue all right um on Friday please let every single member of your teams that there will be a rehearsal in the last 20 minutes of the course or maybe during the course i don't know and that every member should be here because i see some members of some groups actually are constantly violating their obligations towards their team members so it is better if everyone is here on Friday there will be a rehearsal we will just see you know how we should proceed with the simulation and that will be something that will facilitate and i may give you some hints if i see something that you would have to or you will need to correct before you just go to enjoy the weekend all right i'll see you on Friday and don't forget to read these two articles for the final you're responsible i did not send with as an attachment or in a mail by Peter Zimmerman and Charles Ferguson together with Misha Smith the first two articles you're responsible for i'll see you later thanks for coming