 Good day, fellow investors. Today I start talking a little bit more about the new trend, the solar trend and battery storage. And I'll start as it is Sunday with the Sunday stock analysis and first solar. We'll discuss what we know about the company, what we don't know about the company and what's the risk reward there. Tomorrow I'll discuss the solar industry the day after tomorrow we'll begin to batteries. So stay tuned for the next three days as we discuss a disrupting trend in the energy environment. Let's start with first solar. The key points for first solar is that they intend to grow from 2000 megawatts to 7.6 megawatts of yearly production at the end exiting 2020, the CEO says. Their factories are built in Malaysia, Vietnam and the US. The difference between first solar and all other companies is that their cash position is huge and they have about 2.4 billion in cash, which is 33% of market cap. So they have cash and that's a key when you're investing in something. The net price therefore is 75 minus 25 in cash around 50 for the future. The key with first solar is, as I already said, the transition from phase four to phase six modules, which is expected to lead to lower production costs, better efficiencies and of course higher margins. On the company, the company has 8.3 gigawatts of bookings already distributed to 2020. So the cumulative production for the company will be 15 gigawatts over the next three years. As of the last conference called, the company says that they have already practically sold 11.8 gigawatts and they still need to book 3.2 over the next two and a half years and they expect that that can be easily done. I agree with that. So what you see is that the market has visibility into the next three years. The question is always what will happen beyond that. The key is that the fixed operating expenses will drive margin expansions and EPS up. As series six modules is already 40% cheaper than the series four. So what do we know? We know that first solar is a stable company has a lot of cash. We have visibility in the next three years. What will happen? And according to some analysts, and if you try to estimate those margins, the earnings per share will be below two this year, a little bit higher three next year and then between five and seven earnings per share in 2020. If everything goes as planned, but the plan is there. The prices are relatively stable. The visibility into the contracts are already there. So you can expect seven by 2020. However, we now have to see, okay, what we don't know, and that's what will happen after 2020 after the huge investment cycle has been done. Will first solar manage to keep the margin high? Will first solar manage to keep the bookings high? And will they manage to keep the $7 earnings or in the light of cyclicality of the solar earnings? Solar industry, will those earnings drop from seven to four to three to two? And that's what the market doesn't see. And that's why you might see first solar as a bargain, but it can also be a trap. Something very interesting for solar uses cadmium tellurid as its technology, which is different from the crystalline silicon used in most solar panels. So crystalline silicon costs more, has a little bit more efficiency, but first solar's technology is much cheaper to produce. Now, something very important for the solar industry is that their cost of what they sell, the cost of solar panels continues to decline. From 2010, the cost of solar panels has declined 80% and the trend continues to go down, down and down. This means that margins will always be under pressure. And that's the short term cyclicality that lasts a few years with the solar industry, which you have good earnings when things are going good as it is the key moment now for first solar. So they expect to have good earnings in the next three years. But then is always the question, okay, what will happen next? If the solar trend explodes next, then earnings will continue to go up. And you might as well, if in the next one, two years, first solar delivers and there is still visibility in the next two years, which is positive, first solar will be a $140, $150 stock, if that happens. On the other side, if there is margin squeezing, there is pressure on margins, they have oversupply, then first solar is in trouble. And we might also see negative earnings. And then you go down to the cash and the book value to the 50s to the 30s to the 20s, as it has been the case just a year ago, two years ago. Something very important to the solar, I'll also discuss it tomorrow in the solar trend analysis, is that solar prices really, this price of energy is really, really low at peak moment. And the key therefore is storage, which we will discuss the day after tomorrow. So something very interesting to keep in mind that solar, yes, produces energy, but you have to sell it at the profit and you have to be sure you can sell it like that. With minute to minute auctions of energy in the energy world, the solar prices, renewable prices drop to negative when there is now nowhere you can sell it because there is oversupply of energy. So that's something to keep in mind and the solution is of course storage. Now for the earnings model of first solar, I expect a maximum earnings per share of seven in 2020, 2021, that declines over to three over the long term as margins compress then it goes up again. So an average of around five, which gives me fair value intrinsic value for me, as I look always for 10% return at least of 50 plus the $25 sits as fair price of 75, which is where the stock is trading around now. So if you want to take advantage of the volatility because it can go up and down, then please do so, but keep an eye on the cycle quality of the sector, which is the key with stocks in the solar industry and also with first solar. Even if I think first solar is the best of the breed, huge cash, very, very, let's say conservative management because they are not doing crazy things, they are not acquiring and even a question in the last conference call was about, okay, what's there left? Where are you going to grow? Because first solar is everything is set stable, delivered, sold already practically. So that was the question, where are you going to grow? There are no crazy things with first solar, which is a big positive for a company and for the management, I think, but the market prefers crazy, I don't know, Tesla like promises to pump up the market cap. Not, they're not really looking at investments. So first solar is really a stock if you're looking to keep an eye on if you're looking at an investment in the industry. And then also, if you want to invest now just look at the risk reward and how it fits your portfolio. Thank you for watching, looking forward to your comments. If you want to read this in detail, it is published on my research platform, where is there is also the solar trend is published, you can see it as a preview. Thank you for watching, looking forward to your comments and I'll see you in the next video.