 Edych nhw, dych boardser am ymddych chi'n unig i'ch mhwdsoddiad Maen nhw'n gwbl, gallwn ei chwed. Unrhyw, dych liberal oedd ysgol ddim o'r siwr ydw i, byrch yw Ffyrdd Alexander Stein oedd eich ser oedd yng Nghymru, felly mae'r ysgolfau yno'r ysgolfau Edych yn barn, bod i'r ysgolfain, yna'n gyntaf i'r ysgolfain, ond mae'n eich cyfrifio o Angl yn ystod y Llyfr angen ynghylch nid. Da, mae'n ymdw'n meddwl. Ychydig yw'n eisiau dyflawn gennyn i'r mater. Fe ydych i! Fe'n gwneud a ddalun ar Oxford, mae wedi bod Edindor, mae mae'n creu ei gwael, ond mae'n ei cyflawn am ddifolus ysbyt yn ein sgoddur, ond dyma yna, yn fawr, ac mae gweithio y newydd i ymddefnydau newid ymddiseg erbyn bernol. Mae'r sgwympwyr eich cwyr yma ar y pwn, mae'r Cyneddur Neil Richmond, I can't come to dde, but I'm sure Alexandra is going to represent him in all his glory. Yechydig i gweithu! Excellent, so thank you very much. It's a pleasure to be here today, and also to be invited to give the Scottish Government prospective on Brexit. As ye say, on behalf of Mike Russell, he's unfortunately ill, he sends his apologies. I think it's worth noting in that context that some of my remarks are those who are actually prepared for the Minister with my own Berlin slant on this subject. On this. So, I mean, I think, given my role, this is pretty much the perfect event for me because I'm in the position to be able to bring perspectives from Scotland and Germany to Ireland, which I think is apt for today. So, as you'll, you know, as everybody's aware, the Scottish people voted decisively in June 2016 to remain within the EU. And the Scottish Government and the Scottish Parliament both represent these perspectives. And I would say since 2016, the Scottish Government position has been consistent and including through publications such as Scotland's Place in Europe. So, the view is that Scotland didn't vote for Brexit and majority don't want it. And the evidence produced by both the UK and Scottish Governments shows that Brexit is expected to be economically detrimental. It's likely to damage Scotland's economic, social and cultural interests and also hit jobs and living standards. So, ministers want Scotland to remain within the European Union and failing that, they believe that remaining in the single market and the customs union is the least worst option. But nevertheless, as responsible government, the Scottish Government is intensifying its preparations for all EU exit possibilities in order to be able to support the Scottish economy, businesses and workers through uncertain times. So, in preparing for EU exit, the Scottish Government's priorities are to influence UK Government's negotiating permissions, positions and surrounding debate, both on the EU-UK relationship and other international agreements. To secure the repatriation of devolved powers and reach agreement with the UK Government on financial arrangements. To negotiate UK frameworks to replace EU law where necessary and secure an improved system of UK intergovernmental decision making more generally. To design and implement economic, social and environmental policies for both post withdrawal scenarios and support the public, private and third sectors in their preparations. And to influence UK migration policy and mitigate the impact of EU exit on the Scottish labour market, organisations and individuals where possible. So, it wants to identify and mitigate as far as possible other risks including to funding, the provision of public services and continuity of supply of goods and services. And to ensure the competent delivery of operational functions such as the enforcement of fisheries and grant scheme administration and the efficient regulation of business. And then finally to legislate to deliver a functioning devolved statute book on EU exit in order to deliver all of the above. Now, if we look to the impact on devolution, I think it's fair to say that we're now in constitutionally uncharted waters. In the operation of devolved powers since 1999, the Sule Convention has ensured that the UK Parliament will not normally legislate on devolved matters or change the devolution settlement without the agreement of the Scottish Parliament. The implications of Brexit for these constitutional agreements are not yet clear, most notably in relation to the passing on of powers that would normally fall under currently devolved competences. And as everyone here knows, the UK and the EU are currently negotiating two linked key issues. The first is the withdrawal agreement, which will determine what happens immediately after the UK leaves the EU during a transition period which is currently scheduled to last until the end of 2020. So Scottish ministers are of the view that if it does prove possible to conclude a withdrawal agreement, which we'll hope, such an agreement should allow for an extension to the transition period should that prove necessary. Because without that flexibility, there's a real danger that a cliff edge in March 2019 becomes a cliff edge in January 2021. And of course, there are still many unresolved issues with the withdrawal agreement, including issues critical to Scotland such as geographical indicators for food, as already mentioned. But as we all know here today, the single most difficult issue is how to maintain an open border on the island of Ireland. And of course, it's also worth noting that without any withdrawal agreements, there will also be no transition period. The second negotiation relates the political declaration, which will accompany the withdrawal agreement. This sets out the framework, which will determine the long term relationship between the UK and the EU. So Scottish ministers consider the choice of the checkers agreement or no deal to be a false one. They believe that checkers, although an improvement, is still impractical. So for example, it tries to separate goods and services, despite the fact that goods are increasingly sold, for example, with services such as maintenance contracts. And that's something we've heard very often from the BDI in Germany. I think that their view on that has been consistent. And so ministers believe that an approach that fails to cover services would be deeply damaging to Scotland and the UK, since services constitute four-fifths of our economy and two-fifths of our exports to the EU. The UK as a whole has a trade deficit with the EU in goods and a trade surplus in services. So taking us out of the single market in services would knowingly cause harm to our economy. But ministers also believe that the choice between checkers and no deal is false because the EU is never likely to accept some of its key elements. So for example, by keeping the free movement of goods, but not services of people, checkers undermines the unity of the single market. And this has always been unacceptable to the EU as reiterated by Michel Barnier. So I think at this point it may be worth bringing in a couple of observations from Germany. In my view, the German government has maintained a consistent position on Brexit ever since the UK referendum. It consistently reiterates the integrity of the single market, the indivisibility of the four freedoms, the fact that negotiations are conducted by Barnier and Brussels, and the fact that there should be no attempt to split the EU 27. And there has been no departure from the position that a country leaving the EU should also lose the advantages of belonging to the EU. Therefore, political figures, including Merkel, state that they deeply regret Brexit, but that they will respect Britain's democratic processes. At the same time, they do not want the deal to set present for others, and they also consider that it is for the UK to come up with a workable solution. Taking this into account, they nevertheless wish to maintain the best possible relationship with the UK, particularly on internal and external security. So this has created a position of principle that has been notably constable and consistent, and it's also been clearly communicated for those who are listening. Salzburg was not a surprise in Germany, though the UK engagement over the summer into September clearly started to win round significant parts of the German press. And I would say that frustration is clearly now increasing at the lack of any clear solution from the UK, but there is still willingness to soften messaging around the edges and to look for the positive going forward. So I need to be supportive and helpful without shifting on fundamentals. But with the end of November looming as a practical deadline for withdrawal agreement, Merkel has highlighted just this last week the amount of hard work that still has to be done in the next six to eight weeks. And I think one of the reasons why the German view is so consistent is that the EU, to my mind, has become a fundamental part of the German identity, with a firm belief in multilateralism as the only way to continue to ensure peace and prosperity in Europe and to respond to global challenges. Scottish Ministers likewise consider that there are many areas where decisions taken by the European Union are more effective than ones taken by 28 individual nations, for example in consumer issues such as roaming charges and data protection, or major international agreements such as those in climate change. And in addition, Scotland welcomes migration. It has a long-standing history of accepting migrants from across the globe and the Scottish government believes that immigration and the free movement of people have brought major benefits. There are approximately 23,000 Irish and 22,500 German nationals who call Scotland their home. And furthermore, Scotland has a very specific need, as without immigration the population is likely to fall over the next few decades. So this week the Prime Minister stated after Brexit the free movement of people will end. The Scottish government does not agree with this position and will continue to press for the devolution of migration powers in order to take control of Scotland's population needs. Despite Brexit, the Scottish government is strongly committed to continuing engagement with our European neighbours and it is determined that this will remain the case after March 2019. Scotland has strong and viable links with its European partners with Germany and Ireland at the forefront. And this is why we opened hubs here in Dublin and in Berlin with powers to follow. And I think the Dublin hub in particular has had a widely recognised impact on Scottish-Irish relations. It's also why our main enterprise agency has in the last two years doubled its staff on mainland Europe. And it's why all our overseas offices are working hard to pursue new cultural education and business connections with regions, nations and groups of nations. In Germany it's why the opening of our hub in April showcases Scotland's young ambassadors, the European championships and our strong innovation entrepreneurship offering, as well as the signing of an MOU between the Glasgow and the Berlin Chambers of Commerce. It's why the First Minister come to trade mission to Berlin in June and met the Federal Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs. And it's one of the reasons why we worked so closely with Berlin throughout the summer to build on our relationships through the Glasgow Championships, which were co-hosted by Berlin and Glasgow in August. So ministers hope that a sensible conclusion in Brexit can be reached in the coming weeks. Whatever the outcome, they are clear that Scotland's relationship with other European countries matters and they will step up our efforts to engage, not step away. The achievements of the European Union go far beyond the economic. The challenge of the future, from data protection to climate change, from health improvement and a naging population, to ensuring that technological change and automation benefit everyone, these cannot be solved by individual nations alone. Scottish ministers consider that these require multilateral cooperation and collaboration within a framework of rules. They require the best of our researchers and our innovators to work together across countries, creating solutions for sustainable future. And this is why we will continue to reach out to Ireland, to Germany and to the rest of Europe, seeking to build on our close ties to find multilateral solutions to our global challenges. Whatever the next six months may bring, ministers are determined to show that Scotland remains open, outward facing and a welcoming country and a positive constructive partner to our European friends. Scotland greatly values our partnerships and alliance and we look forward to strengthening these wherever this is possible. I think so all that remains is to thank you for having me here today and to wish both Mike Russell and my Dublin colleague John Webster and many of you know a speedy recovery and a good a best run. Thank you very much. Good afternoon. Thank you very much Alexandra and thank you very much Tobias for the introduction. From the outset I would like to thank our host the IIA for once again putting on a very timely and excellent seminar and I'm also very grateful for your graphic designer truly depicting the current Irish border so accurately. Very grateful to the Scottish Centre in European Relations for showing consistent interests in everything that's going on in Ireland and indeed flying me to Glasgow on Sunday. I look forward to it and the Conrad Adnar Stuchton who had the pleasure of flying me to London in July. For anyone wondering I'm free to go wherever you'll bring me. I had a speech written but I wrote it a week ago and it was probably one of the silliest things I did because I texted a panelist in a later session who will remain nameless but you can probably guess who I still text in this room and I asked them have you written a speech and they laughed and said oh why would you write a speech so soon who knows what could happen between now and next week and that's a very true statement and a lot has happened but ultimately nothing's happened and I think that kind of has summed up the last two and a half years in the on-running saga that is Brexit something that I am immensely grateful for because it means I get to go on news night and the people of Dublin right there and watch news night but all's changed and nothing's changed and you could argue from the very outset nothing's changed and I suppose when you talk about timelines and there's a lot of few areas that I could speak about but you're going to have some panels with some real experts that I'm going to leave that to but if you look at the timeline of where we've come and where we're going it's quite telling and one thing that's repeated I speak with multiple hats here I'll try and speak on behalf of the Irish government until I say something inappropriate at which stage I'll revert to the Shannon Brexit committee until I get a frown from the clerk who's in the audience and then I'll just speak as myself and I can't blame anyone else at that stage nor can I get in too much trouble so the immediate timeline is very very short the fact that we're still having so many discussions and negotiations that are ongoing in Brussels is really worrying and is bad business practice but Brexit isn't a business decision if it was that business would have gone bankrupt two and a half years ago Brexit is a political decision a terrible political decision there's no such thing as a good Brexit despite what some people will try and sell and it's very easy to say that to an audience like this in Dublin but I'll happily say it to an audience in London or Birmingham or Sunderland or Newcastle in two or three years time when there is job losses regardless of what Brexit is soft hard medium rare or no deal the timeline as it's been so far has been a timeline of missed deadlines and missed opportunities the deal that was agreed in December still stands and disappoint what some now former ministers who pretend they weren't really listening very hard at the cabinet table will say that agreement stands and what we're waiting for now is the legal manifestation of that agreement the european commission presented their legal interpretation a number of months ago I think I don't know how possibly it could be it was turned down so quickly I don't know how possibly the prime minister could have read it and given it the due diligence but it was turned down and there's no problem with turning stuff down but the key thing is if you're turning something down you need to have an alternative proposal and we still wait with nine days left to get that alternative proposal and I can't stress strongly enough today the importance of receiving the British interpretation of that backstop agreement we were liked it six months ago but we'll take it in six days and it needs to come it needs to be workable and it needs to really appreciate and Alexandria touched about exactly what we are negotiating at the moment it's the withdrawal agreements we're not in free trade negotiations they're a long way away and anyone who would have followed the free trade negotiations with Canada or South Korea or Japan that the commission held know that they take an awfully long time but we are negotiating the withdrawal agreement first and foremost and that gets forgotten about a lot in the brexit here media and the Tory fringe and the withdrawal agreement focuses on three key issues the first two have more or less been settled and the third one is 85% there I am told by the tawnish that as of this morning the first one is on the bill the UK are paying more than they want the Europeans are receiving less than they want we can all live with that it's not ideal but must remind the people of Great Britain that they will continue to receive a return on that bill right until 2020 it's not and it's not some sort of one-off payment you do get a return on that payment the second thing is citizens rights and um Alexandria detail the amount of Irish people living in Germany and Scotland and vice versa and it's quite apparent that more or less is the same amount of British people living in EU countries that there is European citizens living in uh living in the UK and before we come to the complicated matter of people in Northern Ireland who see themselves as British Irish Northern Irish all three and depends on who's playing in the football which brings me to the final the final key issue of the withdrawal agreement that is being negotiated and that is in relation to Ireland and I did say we are 85% of the way there citizens rights has been dealt with in the second issue the common travel area going back to 1922 makes most of those things fairly straightforward however what is the issue is the border and how we can continue to be compliant with the Good Friday Agreement an international peace treaty lodged with the United Nations of which the Irish and British governments are both co guarantors it rolls off the tongue I say it so much because so many people want to rewrite this brilliant agreement and I say it was brilliant because let's be fair it's 15 in 1998 I wasn't and I know some people in the room were actually up negotiating it so I'm not going to pretend to have that detailed expert knowledge apart from going to visit the cousins who were all unionists in the north and wondering why my jack the jack charleton jack the lad shorts had been hidden the night before by my mother but I do remember being chilled to the bone by the TV ads on ITV or UTV as it was you know with the cat Steven soundtrack that's not very nice when you're 11 or 12 and someone said to me this morning what has to have a timeline on the backstop and I quite bluntly said that you don't put a timeline on peace peace should always be forever and Europe the project of Europe the dream of Europe is absolutely something that is rooted in the desire for continued peace and our confidence and indeed desired peace internally and within this island so that's absolutely why the backstop is so important and it should not be dismisses which it should not be seen as a difficult issue that can be managed or it can be tweaked or it can be thrown away or that it can be renegotiated I don't care if your lines are blood red or blood of the Ulster League in common the backstop is vitally important not just to the Irish government but the entire European negotiating side and that's what this is it's a negotiation between the European Commission and the United Kingdom it's not a bilateral negotiation between Dublin and London or indeed Belfast Dublin and London and Little Triathlon and that negotiation has to secure in the future a common trading and customs arrangement association union whatever you have to call it to get over the line that will make sure that that backstop is never ever needed because it's not something anyone ever wants to see come into place because it's not exactly desirable nothing about Brexit is desirable what we have now is perfectly good thank you very much it's not my fault people made bad decisions on a different island next door but we have to manage the impacts thereof so we face a number of challenges we face them in a very short period of time and then there's a couple other challenges that will come two key challenges that will come if we do reach a deal and I will underline that I do think we are going to reach a deal I would like to say it'll be before the European Council meeting of October but I'm not prepared to say that but others will say it absolutely will be but I don't want to make myself sound foolish but I also think that people are right to focus on trying to get it by then a potential emergency European Council meeting clashes with Ireland against New Zealand and the Aviva and I really don't want to be spending my days following one thing rather than the other we have to work until the very last second to get a deal to the European Council to allow Michelle Barnier to bring it to the council to then send to the two key challenges that I'm starting to see one of which is documented in great detail and gets all the coverage and it gets all the glamour and it gets all the noise and it gets all the incorrect commentary and that's getting whatever this deal will be called through Westminster and be it checkers or whatever they'll they'll have to come up with a name for it Canada triple plus or whatever that he should refer to it is yesterday and that's fine and I will go through that but on the European side and the Irish side that isn't our responsibility we don't go over and negotiate with backbench MPs or try and peel off rebel Tories or rebel Labour people or the SLP despite what some people might think the European Commission negotiates in good faith with the British government and the Irish government supports that wholly our negotiator is Michelle Barnier it's no one else it'll get through Westminster I hope it needs to get through Westminster and I think it's in everyone's interest to get it through Westminster because I don't need to detail what the alternative is because if I do I'll be labelled as a fear monger by the Daily Express Philip Hammond I suppose is a fear monger now after his comments this week when exactly he's just been stating what most of us been stating for six months if not two years and you'll hear I'm sure a lot more detailed about but one key area that I would like to make reference about and it hasn't been mentioned and I know Francis Jacobs in the audience you might be annoyed that I pull you out but this deal has to get approved by another body and it's lost constantly in the British media that all the European Council is doing is sending this deal the withdrawal agreement to the European Parliament to get its assent the European Parliament has set the date that it will get that assent to put the 12th and 13th of March it's set in stone the timeline is rigid article 50 is rigid is a very rigid legal process initiated by the British government if people think it isn't long enough then you shouldn't have initiated the article in the first place really shouldn't have voted for Brexit in the first place but I think I've said that enough times already the European Parliament is an institution I'm quite familiar with because not only was I stagiaire there but I was a parliamentary assistant and carrying around gay Mitchell suitcase but occasionally I got the opportunity to learn a few things and see a few things in action and Francis might correct me afterwards but I have never seen a report get through a European Parliament in anything less than six to eight weeks the process is lengthy the process is detailed between getting through group stage committee stage and actually getting to the floor the plenary be it in Strasbourg or a mini plenary in Brussels is not that straightforward and you can talk about the difficulty of Theresa May having to rely on the DUP or the factions within their own party I would like you to refer to one the minority government status in this country I'd love to have just a majority be just tie ten short of a majority in the dull compared to our are now 50 finigail TDs and it's not a great position it's 20 of us in the senate if anyone ever cares about the senate but then the other issue is the European Parliament the EPP of which finigail is constituent member of is obviously the largest group and we've heard from the statements from the leader of our group Manfred Weber and indeed the EPP president of the European Parliament Antonio Tiani the continued European solidarity that has been always forthcoming however what's the alliance running the European Parliament at the moment it changed a couple of years ago it's now the EPP supported by the Aldi Liberal group of which Giver Hofstad is the leader and the ECR of which Said Kamal is the leader the ECR of course and the home of the British Conservative Party the Polish League and Truth and Justice or whatever they are and a number of the Eurocats skeptic parties from Czech Republic and Denmark so how do we get that through the European Parliament that's my question now I have great faith and hope that the grand coalition of the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats come together and see sense but it's not a guaranteed and anyone who thinks this ends simply when a deal is struck or that all the responsibility goes to Westminster once again we'll be taking European politics and European solidarity for absolutely granted I wish you all the best for the rest of the seminar thank you very much for listening to me thank you very much um everyone's depressed uh that's probably the right route to be in uh today um maybe we've got time for one or two questions very quick ones and quick answers as well if there's anybody who's not too depressed maybe but you're suggesting that at the end that the Parliament might reject the deal so what would happen then without we don't know what happens if Westminster rejects the deal it's the exact process this is the tricky thing we're going into a great unknown that I think hasn't received the level of attention that it merits I have absolute faith I will say that it will get through the European Parliament due to the work of the negotiating team of bringing the Parliament task force along the process but I think it's something as is constantly being done that is being underestimated this question maybe superfluous now is there any real prospects that if the European Council agrees on the shape of a deal I'm doubtful about it but you know I'm impressed by nature about these things but if the European Council were to agree on a deal like that what possible logic could there be for the Parliament to reject it there's European elections in May a lot of people again the makeup of the sara group is very worrying and a lot of people will look for their moment in the sun and you've got to remember the the level of federalism in the European Parliament true European federalism that might still be quite smarting from the Brexit decision is higher it is a speculative one but I just think it's something that serves a little bit more attention and consideration it's not a done deal once it gets through the council well thank you very much to our two keynote speakers they've really set us up for the rest of the afternoon and we'll just move on to the next panel then thank you very