 Good morning and welcome to the weekly weekly market update with me David Madden Today's date is Monday the 9th of September 2019 and the time has just gone 1135 for the summer time And it's been a fairly mixed start to the European session today At the very beginning of trading things got off to a fairly positive start But we have seen the UK market and Euro sort of equity markets go in a bit of a different direction Over the weekend. We had some broadly disappointing trade figures out of China exports declined by 1% which is a big miss on the 2% increase and Chinese imports declined By 5.6% and which is it wasn't great, but it was better expected The traders are expecting a decline between a decline of 6% Essentially that the trade terrorist between the trade situation between the US and China has gotten worse and that's been reflected in the figures Both exports from China Essentially the the the trade goods from between the US and China has been hit by the trading by the trade terrorist And that's playing on sentiment and the fact that imports declined by 5.6% really shows That the demand is slowing down in China and China is one of the biggest importers Of natural resources in the world. And so in turn we've seen a decline in London listed mining stocks like Rio Tinto, Angry American and Glencore and so on as a fourth Their traders are still a bit hopeful and looking into the European central bank meeting which takes place on Thursday Without a talk of us a lot of speculation that the European central bank will loosen this monetary policy Later and later this week that's going to be in focus But also the British politics is going to be in play and the pound is going to play And sterling is higher higher on higher this morning Um, and that was on the back of some pretty good economic indicators of the uk Now the for the month of july the uk gdp estimate for july was an increase of 0.3% Better than expected. They're expecting an increase of 0.1 And uk industrial industrial output and uk manufacturing output increased by 0.1 and 0.3 3% respectively, which is it is an amazing but nonetheless Economists were expecting decline. So There's some good economic indicators of the uk today and that has helped the have the british pound I'll take a look ahead now. I was coming up coming up at the major events of the week If you go to our mark our website cmcmarkets.com and under insights and under news analysis You'll find you'll find this article here. Well, which is because it run down of the very different events coming up from the week So obviously keep an eye on the Brexit situation In relation to how that is playing out We've covered the trade figures in china looking ahead to tomorrow. We have uk unemployment and earnings figures That's going to be in focus Seeing as These are aspects of the economy which are actually in fairly decent shape Unemployment is at its lowest ever in decades and earnings are actually are actually quite strong And actually they're coming to be up forming the inflation level Looking ahead to tomorrow. We have first-time figures from bogus group first-time figures from jd jd fashion We have the launch of the iphone 11 from apple on tuesday On thursday, as i mentioned the european The european senator bank Interest rate decision this talk of the deposit rate being caught even further in the negative territory and even the possibility of a government bond buying scheme announced On thursday, we have first-time figures from morrisons On thursday, we have third quarter numbers from broad cam. We second quarter figures from krogger group on thursday On friday, we have us retail sales. That's going to be the interesting one because as you know, the most recent one from perils update us unemployment is fairly very low and as is Um, the wages are quite strong and wages are coming to be outstripping Up performing inflation So workers are in jobs and they're getting decent money So but is that being reflected in retail sales? So that's what we would be keeping an eye out for and lastly we have full year figures from wetter spoons It is worth noting wetter spoons are share price at an all-time high only about a week or two weeks ago The company is that kind of bucking the the wider negative trend of the uk pub sector and is doing quite well We'll take a look now at some of the major markets starting off with the futsy 100 so we can see here that After the fairly aggressive sell-off From late july market did seem to find a bit of a slower inner on this area here kind of 7,040 And the market has been bouncing back since then The level highs that we saw on thursday with the highest the highest level since early august But you haven't really progressed beyond that that being said we are comfortably above The tunity moving average this red line here which comes to play just north of 7,200 So if you can hold above that metric, it's likely we could continue to press on higher from here And if you press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting this region here This line here in at 7,470 I think i'll be on that because they've been looking at targeting this zone here in around 7,600 We can see on a few occasions the metric acted as a resistance on a few occasions So it might act of resistance in the future On the flip side if the market does manage to turn over on itself And we have a sharp break below the tunity moving average We could be looking heading back down towards this area here in around 7,040 keeping Keeping a look now what's going on over in germany and the dax So the dax is clearly in better shape than the futsy because even though it also had a fairly aggressive sell-off in in late in late july we can see at the market Not only did it find a floor in around here 11,270 it has been moving aggressively higher and it's making steady gains On like the futsy 100 and notice how it's come to be back above this blue line here The 50 moving average and this the airline here the water the moving average So it is in better shape and as well above its tunity moving average this red line here So it's in a lot better shape than the futsy 100 is And if you do manage to kind of press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting this zone up here in around 12,000 12,476 And if you go beyond that you're going to get to be testing 12,600 And if you go beyond that you can be looking for this zone here at the highest of early july in a 12,660 If the market does manage to drift a bit lower You might see some fresh buyers end of the fold and support could be fine from this region here The psychology important 12,000 mark and we can see on a few occasions in advance of it Yeah, just just south of it. Um, the resistance occurred just before 12,000 So that old resistance might become new support And even if you do have a size of a break below 12,000 keep an eye for this area here in around 11,853 I'll take a look what's now going on over in the u.s So u.s markets, um kind of a very common theme here Obviously at aggressive sell-off in late in late, um in late july coming into early august But since then we have been kind of broadly been been pushing higher and we can see here that we've had levels Only only um Well in the cash market on friday, but appears as if it's going to open higher even again We're back towards levels not seen since early august Markets come to be above It's uh, it's 50 moving average here and one already moving average this the other line here So if you do manage to press on higher from here We could be looking at heading up towards the psychology important 27 000 because we're currently expecting the dial to open around 26,855 So you could be looking at retesting 27 000 and if you go beyond that you could be looking at retesting this zone here in around 27,200 and if you go beyond that you could be likely heading up towards 27 400 If you do manage to drift a bit just a bit lower on the um On the dove jones support could be could be found from this area here this blue line Which is a 50 moving average at 26,563 And then even possibly even below that from the waterly moving average at 26,279 26,297 so just just shy Of 26,300 and we can see on a few occasions this yellow line here The waterly moving average did manage to act as a resistance or there they're about active resistance And if a metric is acted as resistant in the near past it makes it more likely it will be here Act act as support in the near future, but obviously there are no guarantees And if you do have a break below that you could likely be heading back down towards the psychology important number of 26 000 Take a look what's going on on the smp 500. It's fairly similar We're by the market have a aggressive sell-off from late july into august It's been pushing back since Like with it like with the adult jones, it's comfortably above its 50 moving average this blue line It's comfortably above the water moving average at this yellow line and we're back at levels not seen since early august So if you press on higher from here, we're currently expecting the smp 100 to open at 2987 if you press on higher from here We could be looking at retesting the psychology important 3000 mark And I think I'll be on that. We can then be looking at retesting the all-time high in around 3028 I moved to the downside might find some support from this blue line the 50 moving average 1946 we can see in a few occasions not too long ago It's almost almost a kind of a textbook example of um Of the of the the the 50 moving average acting at resistance on a few occasions It actually has kind of a barrier to it at the move higher So we have good examples of the 50 moving average acting as resistance and if a metric acts as a resistance in the past It makes it more likely it will act as support in the future. Obviously, there are no guarantees Even if you drop below the 50 moving average this blue this yellow line for the moving average at 1912 that might act as a support or even for the 2900 metric year So it's a kind of a recap on with the exception of the foot to 100 Notice how the backs and the backs that the dow Jones and the s&p 100 are comfortably above There are 50 moving averages and 150 moving averages and one of the moving averages and 20 moving averages And dow 30 tells us that and the mark is the indices Should confirm each other and given that if given that they're all moving in the same direction While they all hold above their respective 50 100 and 20 moving averages It makes it more likely that the kind of wider bullish trend in those markets is going to continue Now we've talked about the move to the upside in Inequities who's it could talk talk about the downside move recent move you've seen in the gold market So gold only in early september went on to hit another six year high But we did see a fairly aggressive sell-off In the in the in the gold market on thursday and also on on friday as well So the wider upper trend is not very much in play If you do matter just a bit lower from here support could be found from this zone here 14 93 down to 14 80 That area there But if the wider upper trend does match to continue We could be retesting this area here in around 15 55 50 57 And then if you go beyond that you can look it up towards 15 15 15 60 and 70 Um gold Given that there's been a push higher in global stocks We might see a bit of downward pressure and gold in the near term because we've seen recently The more of risk on attitude traders. So and with that we've seen a move into Play into stocks and out of assets That are deemed to be safer such as gold such as such as other japanese yen and the swiss frank Take a look now a brink route So with the overall kind of feel good factor about the the state of the health of the of the global economy One of the kind of aspects that has come along with that has been the fact that the bret market or the old market has recovered to So the kind of the feel good factor that we're seeing in stocks is also going to be creeping into the to the old market So we can say that it's very much in a clear downward trend But in recent in recent weeks it has been kind of pushing higher We have seen a few higher highs and a few higher lows in the oil market Here on brent if you continue to press on higher from here, we've come to look at retesting this red line here The truth will be average at 64 spot 24 We can see in a few occasions that actually adds very decent examples of resistance And if the metric is actually a bit resistant in the past it makes it more likely it will do so in the future So if you do press on higher from here, keep an eye for this area But if you do matter you drift a bit lower support could be found from this zone here in around 60 bucks a barrel And the move below that could take us back down to this area here in around 56 spot 71 Having a look at WTI Similar situation where the wider trend for the past two months has been clearly to the downside But if you look at the market in the last few weeks since People are betting the last month or so. It has broadly been pushing to the upside. We've seen nice a few Higher lows and also combined with a couple one or two higher highs in the market is pressing on higher If you can measure going to press on higher from here We could be looking at retesting this area here in around 58 dollars a barrel And then if you go beyond that we could be like a psychology board 60 bucks a barrel level It would be there to keep an eye out for And then if you go beyond that the hyphen the f of mid july in a 60 spot 83 Any moves to the downside WTI could find some support from the kind of 54 region here or perhaps even down towards the 53 region And if you go beyond that we could really get back down towards 52 Taking a look now at the euro versus the u.s. Dollar So the wider term picture has been very much to the downside nice series of Lower lows and lower highs We did see a fairly decent snap back at the euro versus the u.s. Dollar last week But ever since then and we saw that you know, we saw that on tuesday Wednesday with a very bullish candle, but then the last few sessions has been drifting back lower again There's a lot of already kind of possibly possible a lot of the kind of negative news in relation to the prospect of the european central bank issuing having some sort of Loosing monetary policy is a possibility that might be already priced in But you can't really ignore the really kind of downward trend and if if you do break Below the 110 area on your dollar we could take us back down towards the recent low In at one spot on 925 and below that we take us back down towards 109 If on the other hand though, we can manage to hold the ball the kind of 110 mark We could be looking at retesting this area here in at one spot 1164 11 last seen in 8 august And if you go beyond that we could be looking at heading towards this year here at one spot 24 90 11 not seen since early august And take a look finally at the british pound versus the u.s. Dollar So pound dollar has been in a solid our trend only only only last week less than a week ago The pound against the u.s. Dollar fell to 11 not seen since the 1980s So really give an indication how bearish the wider trend has been But this candle that we saw here on Tuesday last week has a potential to be a hammer And we have seen a fairly decent move back and moved to the upside in the past few days in fact even even look at the look at the Look at the price action we've seen On the on the on the pound versus the u.s. Dollar today We're not back at levels not seen since late july which is which is quite impressive And if you can hold above this blue line here, which is the fifth day moving average in at one spot 22 94 If you can hold above that metric we could be looking at a we could look we could look to Press a bit higher in the near term towards the kind of 124 area And if you go beyond that we could be like heading back down towards the 126 area Just before I finish up If you've any comments to make in this video or any of the other videos We've made here at cmc markets. Please feel free to leave a view on reviews. Thank you very much