 Hey, what's going on everybody? How you doing? Welcome. Welcome Russell Moore coming to you live with dedicated to financial Literacy. Hey, I'm here. I'm back. I'm back. Hey two consecutive videos in a row. Aren't you proud of me? Definitely back. Okay. I Thought about a couple of things after I did the last video I said, you know what I need to probably because this channel is geared towards newbies new investors So a lot of times we throw out terms and assuming that the new investors know what you're saying But I remember when I was a new investor I remember I just started in the stock market years ago and these terms would come out especially on CNBC And I'm like, what are they talking about? And I just wish someone would break it down now I do have a video. I think I'll try to link it out Link it in this video. I do have a video that I did in 2020. That's specifically Specifically deals with terms Terminology for the stock market. I think you should check it out. It's a really good Especially if you're new to the market But what I'm gonna do since we're in a downtrend or the market is going down right now We're gonna pull back our correction I'm gonna be talking about more terms at the beginning of my video. Just give me you three or four terms of A bit of a bear market or a downtrend Okay, and then if the market goes up, I'll do terms that reflect going up. All right. How about that? Okay, so I'm just gonna so I'm gonna go quickly over that and then what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna give you four things Four things today. That's it and I'm gonna be out of here. I'm gonna talk about the NASDAQ Just particularly that word that index the NASDAQ composite index and then I'm gonna talk about CPI for a few minutes and then we're gonna talk about earnings it's earning season and Lastly investment sentiment and I felt I really felt I want to talk about that a little bit I'm not gonna talk about it long, but a lot of people are Being moved and they're investing based on sentiment Now, it's made I have to say it's more than sentiment at this moment at this point But we got a lot of retail investors that are jumping ship because they're like, oh, we're going down. We're going down I got to sell everything and And you and you know what let me tell you something if you Are you your risk tolerance? And you're you're afraid and you're afraid to leave You're afraid to just to hang in there and keep your stocks hold on to them and even be as bold as I am to add to your position during this kind kind of a market Then I would I would suggest it and let me say I'm not giving you advice. That's my disclosure I'm not gonna tell you what stocks to purchase. I'm not gonna do that I'm not a financial planner or financial expert. I am not I just am a guy that has been in the market for several years I've had some success Granted I've had some success in the market and I've lost in the market And so but I've learned a ton and so all I'm trying to do is anyone that's new to the market is thinking about investing in stocks I want to give you as much knowledge as I possibly can But I also discussed to just getting out of debt Man right now We're everyone saying we're heading for a recession at a strong recession in 2023 folks. We're in a recession I've been saying that for over six eight months. We're in a recession right now It's a soft recession and it's a recession in certain sectors of certain areas. It hasn't totally hit the consumer yet It will though Here's when you know that it's hit us as we hit the retailer When the layoffs begin when layoffs begin to increase and unemployment goes up to unemployment right now is at around 3.7 once it gets past 4% to 5% Look out look out Consumer recession. Okay, so um, and I believe that's gonna happen towards the first second quarter of 2023 All right, you'll start seeing a pickup in After Christmas a lot of especially retailers and anything anyone that has to do with so many Sectors are dealing with consumer staples and all that they're gonna need extra help for the holidays, but after the holidays Bye-bye So here's my advice to those that are out there and you're employed do a great job So when the when the layoffs do come and I'm not laughing when the layoffs do come They're gonna keep the most valuable productive employees So if you're showing up late Calling in all the time especially during the holidays everybody's partying and drinking and doing your thing if you're not showing up And you're in you're late And you're not being productive on that job You might be the first to go don't be the first to go And don't go at all Be so productive that they say wow that person does the work of two to three people We need them they're valuable make yourself valuable during the season, okay I'm not saying it will totally you will totally avoid Being laid off, but there's a great chance. They'll keep you around Okay, and even if you do leave your reference would be amazing for your next position All right. That's I thought I'd throw that in for free. Okay. All right. Let me give you a few of the terms Right now. We're in a downtrend. What does it mean down trend? Most technical analysts will use that term trend a trend when the market is going on a certain direction It's trending. So there's a certain trend that it's going down. It's it's heading in so whenever you hear the term down Trend the market is heading down. It's trending down. It seems to be the the majority the majority of That the majority of stock owners are selling So we what's happening and there's a increase in selling So it's heading down. It's trending down. Got it and give you an example Remember when I was a kid Levi's were like there was a season where Levi's were trending Everybody was wearing and Levi's in Chuck Smith's converse And it was a trend There was an increase in Levi's being purchased and In converse being purchased then there was the Nike trend. I don't know if that's ever died You know Michael Jordan. There was a trend A rush a herd of people begin to buy Michael Jordan's When you have a downtrend you have our herd of people selling off Okay So you might hear the word correction a correction Is literally Where the market drops back or it's called a pullback So it's been going up and then it'll correct. It'll drop down Doesn't necessarily mean that it's a crash In order for it to be a crash And let's use that term the word crash where you see here the word market is crashing You you're you're only you're mainly talking about below 20 When the market is when the market is dropped 20 or below You're pretty much in a what's called a bear market Or it's crashing Okay, I want to use the term crash though lightly because Crash is a little bit more significant. I'll even say go down to 30 30 to 40 percent, but So we'll just say a bear market is when that market drops 20 percent or below Okay, that's it. I'm just going to give you those few terms Okay bear downtrend Uh pullback correction. So whenever you hear that the market is going back. It's going down Okay. All right. So that's it for today. All right now. Let's get to what I'm going to talk about today and that is um nasdaq cpi earnings and investor sentiment nasdaq composite index It's it's really comprised of mostly tech stocks Okay, but let me give you an example of a tech stock microsoft google amazon meta or facebook we call we probably previously called it. Um Did I say amazon? I don't know if I said amazon tech stocks Okay Nvidia amd nasdaq All right now Here's the thing about the nasdaq The market would freak out if it's if it saw that the nasdaq in one year dropped 20 percent The market would be like what the nasdaq dropped 20 percent. Wow, you know, that would be a big thing But let me tell you something In the last two months the nasdaq has dropped 20 percent in two months not a year Gang that's that's no joke. We are definitely we are definitely if we're not crashing We're definitely in a bear market We're definitely in a bear market bear bull up bear down talking to my newbies out there Okay, bull means up. It's going up bear means down. All right, so Can now if you can just see the significance of that 20 percent annually a drop 20 percent is it's would be Absolutely, absolutely wild We've we dropped 20 percent in two months And let me give you an example of the stocks that nasdaq is comprised of about a hundred companies Let me give you some of the companies that have dropped and how much they've dropped. Okay. Are you ready? Okay In two months Metta facebook has dropped 20 percent 20 tesla In two months has dropped Has went down their stock 30 percent about 30 percent Shopify 33 percent amd Advanced micro oh my god devices advanced micro devices This semi conductor sector AMD has dropped 42 percent in two months I think it's somewhere around 53 dollars 58 dollars AMD hasn't been that low in several years 50, I mean, that's a buy. I'm talking buy buy buy buy buy buy As Jim Kramer says buy buy buy buy buy buy In video 40 percent it has dropped In video another semiconductor when I need semiconductor. Let me okay newbies chip stocks selling chips chips are in everything I did have my last video talked about chips that are gonna talk about that anymore now get this for all you iphone lovers ipad 20 percent in two months. It's dropped Wow You guys the nasdaq has dropped Okay One day I will in the future. I'll do s and p 500 and I'll also do the dow But that should tell you something on where we are with the market The nasdaq has dropped 20 percent Now let's talk about the cpi for a second cpi. What is cpi newbies? consumer price index It's the report is coming out tomorrow for I believe I believe it's uh september August we were at 8.3 percent 8.8.3 8.1 There's a core cpi and that which excludes um Food and energy It doesn't have it doesn't talk about Food and energy in that index at all um, but the cpi consumer price index Tells us a lot and it's coming out tomorrow thursday Well, it should be today now. It's 1 30 in the morning. So it's it's today later today Around 12 30 probably about 10 30 uh pacific time 10 30 9 30 pacific time The cpi is going to tell us a lot and it gravely affects the market um because Jerome how the federal reserve they're looking at those numbers to see If inflation are they making a dent on inflation? Remember the goal for the federal reserve is to get inflation down to 2% 2% can you imagine get it down to two? That's not going to happen this year I don't even think it's going to happen next year if I think at At best at best next year. It'll get to maybe for The lowest four to five percent They're not really doing doing much against inflation. They're not winning They're not winning against inflation A lot of those companies out there are not budging. They're not dropping their prices The only thing that's probably being affected is the housing market Because the consumer has more control They're putting depression on by not going out and buying by not going out there and putting out and applying for mortgage loans because What did we talk about yesterday? The housing prices are at the the mortgage rates are at 7% and what did I say? I said this about six or eight months ago I'm not bragging. I'm not I'm not a prophet I said by the end of the year, we would be at 8% That the mortgage rate would get to 8% we're at 7.4 right now That's almost seven and a half percent and in some cases. So I've Anticipate by the end of by the end of this month. November will be at 8% Just as I said But I believe it'll drop towards the beginning of next year. Maybe the second quarter into the first quarter will begin to see Some softening of those rates. Okay, so um, but the cpi is coming out tomorrow pay attention to that I think it's going to be above 8.3 I We're hoping that it'll drop That means there's a good chance that we can start seeing some deflation Prices are being dropped. I'm very interested to see the the auto industry And the numbers for the auto industry housing we Gas is back up again Okay, but we may not see those numbers for september It's probably going to affect more october numbers for the cpi. Okay, so that's the cpi and then our earnings Earnings pretty much is kicking off tomorrow. I mean it started already softly But the banks aren't friday. So all the a lot of the banks jp morgan I think wells fargo city bank. I think they're going to give their earnings report um, basically quarterly For you newbies out there Earning season is basically companies talking about their financials Did they make money? I'm just going to keep it very practical and simple Did we make money? Did we lose money that quarter for the last previous three months? Did we lose money and did we did we lose money or did we make money? And if we did lose money, what were some of the reasons why we lost money was a supply chain issues Did we have a hard time getting things from overseas? Uh, it's just customers people just aren't purchasing. They aren't buying. They're pulling back So we'll find out. Uh, so the earnings seasons will say a lot because it's telling us what these companies are doing It's telling us what the consumer is doing Are we are are we spending? And I really believe that people are pulling back from spending What will that do it will force all of these companies begin to drop their prices So if you're looking to get furniture wait Don't buy any new furniture yet Why go to ashleys and buy furniture? Oh, that that was a that was a shot at ashleys Wait the prices will come down Wait for your home Prices will come down So because sentiment now people are going to begin to pull back and say i'm going to wait I'm going to wait to let prices go down. So now it's less purchasing is going on So earnings to drop Okay, so we're going to pay please pay attention There's a there's a pretty good site that I rely on it's called earnings whisper son On on twitter earnings whisper And it'll give you all the earnings for all the different stocks each day It actually you can look out a week ahead and it'll tell you each day Which companies are reporting their earnings? All right, that's earnings whisper on twitter All right, let me just go over it before I go into sentiment before I talk about investor sentiment I want to mention The earnings for a few companies major companies tomorrow For the sector the the chip sector, which is i'm really been paying attention to Many of those stocks have dropped. I mentioned earlier You know AMD AMD has dropped 42% Nvidia 40% major chip stock companies Okay, 40% and I think they're not done dropping But they're going to be great buys In the next month or so they will be great buys Okay, so keep your eye on that. I'm not telling you I'm not telling you to invest in them But you want to keep your eye on them do your research on those companies They're good solid companies. They're not going anywhere. Okay, but tsmc reports tomorrow before the open Before the open So if you're listening to this video, you're probably too late To get a stock option, but I believe they're gonna make they're gonna have great numbers tomorrow I really believe that I believe they've done. They're gonna have a great second third quarter I believe it's third quarter reports earnings reports tomorrow. Yeah. Yeah third quarter So I believe they're gonna have great numbers and they're gonna get a bump I could be wrong. I could be wrong The bump won't last we're still in a bear market. Remember down trending. Okay, but it will be a good opportunity to make a good profit for a day or two You know, and then we'll see we'll see depending on the numbers. It could keep trending up We don't know when the bottom what I mean by the bottom when that When the bear market will end and start heading back up. So when you hear that term Nobody knows when the bottom is that means the bottom of the bear the bottom of the downtrend The bottom of the crash At one point it reaches a bottom and starts heading back up. Okay, another company that's giving their earnings report tomorrow is delta Delta airlines, I don't think the airlines is doing that. Well, I won't be looking to purchase anything black rock I think under um money cash under under uh, they I think I know black rock Probably assets under management. I think they have exceeded everyone Billions and billions billions of dollars basically they're uh, they're they're uh an institutional investor They just own a lot. They're a hedge. They're a fund a huge fund and They report tomorrow dominoes reports tomorrow and a few others that I'm not going to mention So, uh, but look out for them. You might we might get a bump Uh, I'm interested to see what black rock is Because they purchase a lot of homes So I want to see in fact, I want to hear their actual earnings report So I'll listen to them. I'll listen to tsmc I'll make sure that I listen to them and really you guys all you got to do is go to their websites If you want to hear the earnings report if you want to hear the earnings conference call go to their website under investor relations And a lot of times they'll have the recording even if you don't make it when it when it happens I believe black rock is reporting after the market close. I don't think they're doing it before but tsmc that by the way tsmc is uh, taiwan Semiconductor manufacturing company. So, um, they report before the open. So I've already got some shit. I've already purchased some Um, um, hey, let's go. Let's go. Let's go All right, so I think that'll be it. Oh investor sentiment. I didn't touch on that real quickly. I'll say this about investor sentiment People begin to get sentimental And they begin to follow the crowd And it's like if everybody's saying the market is going down that I'm going to follow the crowd and I'm going to get out It's my sentiment. It's not based on Fundamentals it's not based on technical analysis. It's has nothing to do with research It's about a feeling If you go by your feelings when it comes to the stock market, you're going to be in trouble Every time I've just I'm not saying that you won't have a a feeling at times I'm not saying that you won't have a feeling and a different feeling of a direction But most of the time you want to look at the facts If a company is doing well, it may drop for a season, but it's coming back And when it drops you want to buy on the dip You want to purchase on the dip? Um, now when that dip is for you, you've got to determine that I can't tell you that But um, so let me give you the sentiment right now as a whole 55 of people that are investing in the stock market believe it is totally bearish They're totally bearish on it. They don't want to purchase any stocks. Most people are like, I'm not buying anything That are in that category 54 55 percent 23 percent are bullish And 21 percent is neutral So that's market sentiment right now 55 percent of the people out there are saying We're bearish. We're bearish. I'm not buying. I'm selling And then you have 23 that are saying I'm buying the dip This is a golden opportunity for me And then 21 are just undecided. They're neutral. They're like, I don't know whether to buy or not You better be decisive If you're neutral, you're not gonna make any money during this season. Okay Because even if you're Even if you're bullish if you're bullish, you'll be buying right now on the dip If you're bearish, you'll be shorting or you know Buying your puts Not selling buying puts Put options talk about that later. Anyway, I want to thank you guys I know this was longer than I expected But I want to I want to say hey keep going hanging there. Keep the faith keep speaking it forth God is on your side. He's on your side Have a wonderful day. Bye. Bye