 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The NBA may be on its all-star break But we have still got a fun weekend of sports coming up because we have a full slate of English from English Premier League and Some UFC coming up on Saturday as well We're gonna break down both those with the Austin and Austin show Austin cast talking EPO Austin Swain talking UFC Later on gonna be a blast to get you ready, which should be a good Saturday of sports This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here first by Austin cast check him out on Twitter at Austin cast You can find his work over at number fire calm doing a lot of soccer stuff over there a lot of NBA stuff as well Austin happy Friday to you. How you doing today doing well? How are you? I'm delightful. I am trying to Figure out this whole soccer thing. So I am leaning on you having you educate me here We talked two weeks ago about the top of the table Liverpool Man City and then Man City got the win back on Wednesday. I think it was over Good Arsenal dang it no time at Liverpool later on see I told you I'm still trying to figure it out Over Arsenal on Wednesday, so good call by you can we depend on that level of accuracy every time going forward? Hey, I hope so We'll see if we can duplicate that by talking about the other side of the table later on day talking about some relegation futures and much more But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Our Daytona 500 preview is already up with dr. Nick Giffin breaking down his fair beds for Daytona his modeling process and much more Find that on the covering the spread podcast feed and on the Fandle YouTube page if you want to consume that version instead Or check us out and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts The Midway point of the NBA season is here And now is the perfect time to download Fandle America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's bonus bets back if your first bet doesn't win just download the Fandle sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use you can bet on everything from the money line to point scores to three strained Plus Fandle even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with the same game parlay So don't miss a chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 bonus bets make every moment more a fandal an official sports betting partner of the NBA Must be 21 plus in president select states first online real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is not withdrawal bonus bets that expired 14 days Restricted supplies see full terms at fadwell.com sportsbook gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fadwell.com Rg in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to 533 42 in Connecticut 1-8 and 8 789 7777 or the ccpg.org chat in Indiana 1-800 9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-100 5 to 2 4700 in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana is 1-8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Maryland empty gambling help org in New York 1-8 7 7 a open wire text open Y And in West Virginia go to 1-800 gambler Net now as mentioned Austin we talked about the good side of the table last time Let's talk about the bad aside here and talk about the relegation futures over at fadwell sportsbook right now We've got Bournemouth in Southampton is being kind of like favored to be relegated But some other potential spots you could turn to looking for some value in the relegation market So also when you look at this market right now this futures market. Are you seeing any value to be relegated? Yeah, so like you said, it's it's basically priced as a five-team race, you know, I know if that's the term you want to use but Yeah, it looks like you know the way fadwell sportsbook has it Bournemouth and Southampton are heavy Favorites to go down and then it's Everton leads and nottingham forest who are look like they'll be duking it out for that last relegation spot. I Really like forest at plus 230. So it's not necessarily that I'm super down on nottingham forest. It's more that Southampton and leads to the teams below them in the table have been really unlucky this year According to FB refs expected goal model Leads are actually 11th and expected goal differential and Southampton are 14th So in the current table, there's five teams within five points of each other at the bottom So if leads or Southampton could just string together Two or three wins or just two wins in a draw or just a couple positive results They can hop out of the bottom three pretty quickly and if either of them do that it would obviously result in somebody else dropping down So West Ham and Wolves are currently in 15th and 16th And I don't think they're in serious danger really and by the pricing at fadwell sportsbook. They don't either So that kind of leaves forest for me They're currently eight points clear and I think they could easily get sucked back down to the bottom three There's 16th by expected goal differential. They've scored just 17 times through 22 matches and conceded 37 goals So they're a little lucky to be in 14th. They're kind of the opposite of leads and Southampton, but obviously The points that they've already amassed even if it was through some good fortune. Those are already in the bank but They have a pretty rough Schedule coming up. They have to play all the big six teams plus Newcastle who's currently in fourth And then they have a crucial game against Everton In early March So I like taking this 230 number now because if they would lose that game to Everton that number is going to disappear Right and it goes back to the discussion we had with the the man city Debate where the man city Arsenal discussion where there was an inflection point coming up pretty soon And you wanted to get in before that and if you you know with man city, they were plus money at the time I think they're now minus 190 to win And this is the same thing if you got that big match coming up that could dictate this market a lot You want the plus 230 before we get to there? Especially if you think that they are going to lose that match And it sounds like based on your analysis the expected goals you are expecting that So you want to get ahead of that inflection point and make sure you lock that in before we get there Let's talk some positives Saturday pretty big match between Liverpool and Newcastle looking at the markets here Austin It seems to be a pretty tightly contested game. So any value for you in this Saturday afternoon match Yeah, so I like the Newcastle side by pretty much any metric Newcastle have been the better team all season Liverpool are probably the most disappointing team in the league But they just had their best performance in a while on Monday and they're getting healthier, which is probably why Newcastle are just slight favorites But I'll take Newcastle prior to Liverpool's Monday home win, which came against Everton one of the worst teams in the league The Reds have lost the expected goal battle in three straight games and have given up at least 1.6 expected goals in four consecutive matches So they're struggling defense should be the perfect remedy for a Newcastle attack. That's been a little off lately Plus this game being at at Newcastle at St. James Park is a big deal Newcastle haven't lost at home this year They've won five of their past seven home matches and drew the other two Newcastle have or sorry Liverpool have lost four straight away matches in all competitions and lost six of their ten away matches in the league this season including losing the Wolves and Forest two sides that are Fighttened out to get relegated. So I Really really like Newcastle to win and think that they probably should be closer to like Plus 110 so I'm loving them at their current number Yeah, that's plus 155 right now If you have the tie included in there Is that your favorite way to bet this one is with that being the case the plus 155 with the tie included or do you want to go? The minus 116 where a tie is a void I think either are actually very very good bets. I think I Think I like the minus 116 and I haven't looked at the correct score market But I'd be really interested in Newcastle at winning 1-0 or 2-0. Okay, so yeah, I like both of those. Yeah, the 1-0 Correct score. It doesn't say which side I guess you go correct score Okay, okay Yeah, okay, so plus 950 for them to win 1-0 that seems like a pretty good number It's a little confounding to be honest the market and I think Liverpool has been a really hard team for Sportsbooks this year because they're supposed to be one of the best in the league and they just haven't been very good Yeah, but they also haven't by expect the goals that haven't been as bad as what their results. So I think It's just this funky middle ground of we know they're better than this They're probably gonna start playing better than this at some point. They're getting a little healthier, but right all the stats Keep telling you that they're actually not that good, right? It's sort of weird and at a certain point as a sample gets larger You know, you kind of want to say something you want to see something Yeah, exactly. Okay, so that's Newcastle versus Liverpool Liking potentially the Newcastle money line plus 155 minus 116 with a a tie being void or Looking at the correct score market 1-0 or 2-0 plus 950 or 13 to 1 if you want to go that route instead We got a lot of other games though on Saturday Sorry matches again working on it a lot of the matches seven matches on Saturday, Austin. What are your favorite bets across those right now? So I see a few things in the Brentford Crystal Palace match. I Really like Brentford who are at home To win this match at their minus 125 money line These teams aren't far apart in the table, but by just about any metric Brentford have been the much better side They have an expected goal difference of plus 3.7 which ranks 8th, and that's exactly where they are in the table Palace have an expected goal differential of minus 11.4 and that ranks 18, but they're actually 12 on points So if they hadn't had some good results, I think they would be a team that could get Possibly sucked into a relegation battle, but they probably have too many points in the bank already but Palace have allowed at least 1.2 expected goals and six straight matches and Brentford at home have been really really good Six best home goal difference. So along with that. I also like Yvonne Tony to score a goal, which is at plus 120 He's their focal point for Brentford and should get on the end of a few chances he scored in three of the past four home matches across all competitions and He's fantastic penalty taker and if they get a penalty, he'll take it. He's four for four From the penalty spot this season and might be the best penalty taker In the Premier League, so that's obviously a boost if you're betting on the score any time and then Real quick Brentford to win 1-0 is plus 500 and 2-0 is plus 750 and I think both of those are very appealing That looks like 550 and 700. Yeah, I think both of those are very appealing numbers Because I just think they're the better team they're at home and we've got a really good shot to win If you were betting in one market including the goal score mark because that does correlate to the other ones What would be your preferred market for betting on Brentford versus Crystal Palace? Uh, probably taking the correct score the 1-0 or 2-0. Okay, one. I'm just a little bit of a sucker for the big numbers and Yeah, so that's where I'd land. So 1-0 again is plus 550 is 71 Um Preferentially between those two I'd take 2-0 Okay, that is 71 again a fan to a sportsbook for Brentford versus Crystal Palace anything else for you on saturday awesome before we close up here Uh, no, no, but it it should be a really fun day with eight games going on. So it's nice to have it with Kind of taking center stage with the NBA done and NFL obviously done. So it's fun, right Well, that's good austin cast check him out on twitter at austin cast check out his work If you're playing some epl dfs, uh writing some stuff up for that over at number fire.com as well Austin have a fantastic weekend and we'll talk to you once again here soon Sounds good. Thank you, Jim. You too. Thank you, Austin But don't despair just because we're down one awesome does not mean we are down all awesome because Time to bring on Austin Swain and talk about some UFC as well We've got a card coming up this weekend again terminology all over the place here Austin's when you can find him on twitter at a swing three the host of our heat check podcast on the usc side for the big Pay-per-view events austin happy friday. How you doing today? I'm good. Jim. How are you doing today? I know we're kind of filling it in and I heard you learning as you go with the terminology So now we get to dive in very different instead of in soccer, right where guys aren't actually hurt and they're writhing in pain There are guys that should be writhing in pain here in UFC that they look just fine when you wash them in the octagon on saturday You said I was learning the terminology. I think learning is generous. Um, I'm Trying to learn can we can we say that instead trying to learn it because I think that that That implies that I'm not there yet, which I think is accurate. So trying to learn I think is the way we'll go here I think we're all trying to learn right just learn something new every day That's all we do. Okay. Well, let's take a look at this UFC card for this weekend. The main event is jessica andrage Versus erin blanchfield andrage right now Favorite on the money line at minus one 48 at least that was as of yesterday As of right now it is minus 134. So it looks like there's some money on blanchfield here Anything stand out to you in that? main event austin so I This main event came apart last minute It'll just last week as we sat here last for this week erin blanchfield had a different opponent jessica andrage to her credit Stepping in here on short notice. So this was a very careful surgical handicap and it kind of always has to be With jessica andrage. She's very hard to paint this broad brush over because of her ability because She has been world-class dominant zero holes in her profile against everybody that she's faced that hasn't held a ufc title Then when she's gotten to title pictures knockout loss to wele jong Parallel losses to rose nama unis and then she was just destroyed by valentina shevchenko in this weight class She seeded all seven takedown attempts It was ugly She couldn't she couldn't get valentina off of her and it really all depends here this handicap to me And so I don't I don't mind if anybody disagrees with me on this It all depends on your evaluation of erin blanchfield and her ability from a very limited ufc sample So thus far but my opinion of blanchfield is that she is a true championship contender I i'm not even falling I feel good about my handicap that i'm not falling prisoner of the moment to her win Over molly mccann last year in utah because mccann is not a good grappler when she dominated the strong Surging prospect maranda maverick That's when I was in and you look she has a plus 3.34 striking success rate She's added exactly 4.00 takedowns for 15 minutes on incredibly efficient 68 percent accuracy You look at that takedown efficiency It's actually higher than valentina shochenko's at 64 percent. So I came through uh, I have a 1.55 one unit bet on erin blanchfield The number now one plus 110 on vandal sportsbook I come back to this notion is that jessica and raj just last month in brazil set the women's flyweight record for significant strikes landed It was a mopping. It was an ugly fight all of us on twitter. We're begging her to stop the fight She's only this short number of a favorite here I think the sportsbook is telling me something with that and for good reason so The blanche field number has shortened uh because undrage was minus 140 something yesterday in blanche field now plus 110 Is there still value remaining for you at that number or is the value dried up? I have i blanche field is a favorite in this fight when I go through my plug my stuff in so at plus 110 I'm in at plus 100. I'm in really when I get to like minus 135 Is the breaking point of where I wouldn't favor blanche field because jessica and raj does have the established level of competition Compared to blanche field. So I very much value that and I understand where you're coming from But undrage is always this white glove handicap where I can't paint this broad brush over her I really have to so much more so look at the other fighter that she's facing and what I think of them Okay, so blanche field plus 110 right now at vandal sportsbook to defeat jessica and raj That's a money line there. We got some other fights going on on saturday as well. Any other money lines you like for the first saturday austin So i'm gonna give you one and a jim you've had these moments probably when forecasting nascar of when You're so far off from the bedding that it makes you feel like you're missing something right literally this week That is me this week that I have uh with jamal emmers. He's plus 136 on vandal sportsbook It's on the earlier prelims. Um if you switch over to the ufc fight stab And the reason why you look at the highs and lows of this sport last time we saw jamal emmers He actually hurt a very successful prospect in pat sabbatini had him hurt He was going to finish the fight Lunged after him on the ground and he got his leg trapped sabbatini caught him in a leg lock Tourist acl in a matter of seconds and he's been out 17 months since that moment in time So here he is about to score the biggest win of his ufc career ends up tearing his acl That is the highs and lows of his sport But he's one in three record in ufc is so misleading this this sport It doesn't match people properly on ability. It's much more so about trajectory of wins and losses I don't care that he's one in three because the three losses have come against guys with 18 combined ufc wins They are veterans. They know what they're doing. He went the distance. We could get you kodze Who is a ranked featherweight in this division? I would if he had an analytical hole or something that I thought he didn't do well I might be more open to the newcomer ash kabob here But his his peripheral sparkling plus 1.29 striking success rate better level of competition lands over two and a half Take downs for 15 minutes with 53 accuracy and his defensive metrics are solid and I look at ash kabob here He's got a 23 and zero professional record, which a lot of times will drive betting lines It's like oh this guy's a monster and he's beating everybody they put in front of him But none of those were accumulated against anyone with a ufc appearance or an opponent that had faced someone with the ufc So I have no idea how good the guys he's been fighting overseas are I know emers is well rounded. He's talented I'm stunned. He's the underdog when I've gotten closer to a minus 180 190 favorite Oh, wow, that's a big difference. Okay a massive difference. It makes me feel like I'm missing something I mean, I had the exact same thing With Todd gilland and nascar I had him at 2.5 percent to win and he was at 1.201 So I I understand that it is not a fun feeling honestly to be that far off So it's like you would think that it'd be like, okay I've got this great value But with how Powerful the market is and with how often the market is right. It makes you feel like you're losing your your mind So I 100% know what you're talking about there I I've historically had these going both directions where it's an easy win for the guy I thought should have been the favorite or he just gets demolished in seconds And I was so clearly obviously wrong. So, um, here's hoping Yeah, emers plus 136 I guess that's kebab over at fangirl sportsbook if you are looking for that one on your fangirl sportsbook app You go to the you the mma tab and usc prelims is where you find that one. But that's the money lines. Austin. We have got Method of victory. We've got so many props available for all these matches. So what else you like it on the card for this weekend? So I I got I have a pair of submission props for you We talked about exact finishing props last time Weird timing with that card But I do like some of these exact finishing props because I think you can Project fighter styles and what they're most comfortable with if they're in a position to win I look at the biggest favorite on this card. Myra Boynessola. She's minus five 20 last week I can't quite read what she is right now in fangirl sportsbook. She's the biggest favorite on the card I cannot believe if you look at her method of victory She's plus 220 to win by submission because I know it's her profile is a little bit odd She's actually never landed a ufc takedown and just for your knowledge jim or anyone else's knowledge It's a lot easier to secure ufc submission if you're on the ground If you're in a dominant top position on the ground It's really hard to do that if you both are standing at distance and grab somebody's limb and just be able to submit them It's very rare But myra boynessova still has four for pro ufc win five ufc wins by submission So her default style to win thus far in ufc four out of five times has been via submission And I think this line is juice because lita landsburg on the other side has never been professionally submitted But that doesn't necessarily mean very much. It's all about the styles of who she's faced before Lansbury actually hasn't faced a fighter that averages over a submission attempt for 15 minutes They're not strong grapplers myra boynessova at 1.5 is the best one that she's faced thus far She's projected to win this fight comfortably if you trust those who know what they're doing At odds makers and odds books I think when if she's comfortably winning the fight two to one two two two plus one to one On myra boynessova to win by submission is just an absurd line I I saw this last night and I had to grab it because I thought I figured it might might have been somewhere on minus 105 minus 110 like it is my stuff Yeah, uh boynessova by submission as you said plus 220 versus her money line is minus 5 20 Which is what you were looking to before it's basically the stage is going to win And not likely by that method, but think about paths paths to victory You know if her if we take the implied odds as being gospel Minus 5 20 the implied odds there 84 percent. So you have an 84 percent piece of a pie What percentage of the time is that going to be a submission? It sounds like based on what you're saying By the way, she operates and by the fact that landsburg hasn't been tested that way I'll decently large chunk of that 83 percent pie is going to be by submission Correct. So I so like I said minus 105 minus 110 So about 51 52 percent of the time I would project a submission then about another 45 percent I would go decision now knockout is a very different story where Buena Silva doesn't not only doesn't have a ufc knockout herself landsburg spend to a decision in seven straight fights She's very durable. So um, there's not a lot of power at women's fly weight compared to other divisions Uh, I have a weight class piece over on number five to plug if you want to look at some of the different trends In different divisions, but Buena Silva, I think it's either by submission or decision Which Jim if you take a look at the double chance odds You're probably not going to get nearly the number you would be by me just taking the plunge and going inside the distance with a submission Right, uh, so plus 20 on marabona. Buena Silva to win by submission and the thoughts are anything else you're seeing on this card or good for today Yeah, no, so I actually so the other submission that I'm looking at here is my old friend Jim Miller I don't know if you remember talking about Jim Miller on the very first ufc. He check I ever did but Jim Miller still had it Approaching 40 years old man And he is arguably fighting his best stretch in ufc ever you you love to see stories like this six and three in his last nine fights Um, this is just way too long of a number when this is exactly what Jim Miller does if I'm going to support Jim Miller much more so than his money line I'm looking at a submission prop because 18 18 of his 29 pro wins have come via submission He averages a card best 1.8 submission attempts for 15 minutes That's what he does and you look at the last time alexander hernandez appeared in this weight class at lightweight He ended up getting submitted by hanato moikana. So no longer You know, I don't think of hernandez hernandez is more of a bully boxer quite a bit of power But I look at that power and i'm thinking to myself. Okay, what's the path to failure for Jim Miller what's going wrong that would prevent him from getting a submission Well, hernandez is knocked down rate 0.88 percent is not very high So he doesn't carry a lot of power in this division and he only lands 39 of his strikes And he's not a submission threat himself. So I think at least miller's gonna have 15 minutes to maybe pull one out We've seen him arm bars from the bottom. We've seen him Uh, it reversed position to get a reneged choke from from top control You know, I like miller's money line But this is the way that I obviously looked out to see I got to support this guy in this batch And when he's trying submissions, it's such a high volume Yeah, so a submission win for jim miller is plus 500 and the money line from miller plus 186 And it sounds like based on the way you view the match going down You think that's his best route to victory is via submission I do. Yeah. So the plus 500 odds here are just a little bit longer than what I have implied I've got like a I've got like a 30 35 chance of a submission here because hernandez that was his only submission loss So it's not like a play a plague or a massive issue that he's had in this division I just see jim miller as one of the better submission guys He's faced so so far just like moicano and if jim miller has a chance in this fight, you know He could get knocked out in five seconds I'd rather be supporting a quarter unit on a plus 500 prop than a full unit on his money line Right, you can acknowledge that there are paths to this not working out for five to one That's too many to be the case, but I think that that makes a lot of sense. All right Yeah, I I was gonna say I mean you look at paths to failure in this sport y'all the time you have We I've had significant bets ruined by knee injuries by You know elbows dislocating by shoulders popping out and these are things that aren't exactly forecastable So like I actually enjoy this market for smaller unit darts when I have a guy like miller that has such a tendency and usually The underdogs are undervalued in these prop markets as well. They specifically Yeah, absolutely if you want to read austin's work in written form it is up His betting guide is up over on number fire dot com for ufc vegas 69 You can check that out over there. Check out austin on twitter at aswayne 3 check out The ufc podcast of the big events on the number fire daily fantasy podcast read austin I appreciate the time. Good luck to you with the ufc and have a fantastic weekend Have a great weekend jim happy daytona weekend. I know you'll be locked in all week I will be locked in tomorrow specifically. I have more bets on Xfinity than than cup which is weird But we're gonna see how they go. Although I if gilly wins on sunday I'm not showing up to work on monday because we're off anyway That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread check out austin on twitter at aswayne 3 I am on twitter at jim saunas. Thank you once again to austin cast earlier on Check him out on twitter at austin cast to follow all of their work Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast back next week Not on monday because we're off for the holiday back on tuesday talk some honda classic golf with ali macan getting her thoughts On the field there. We'll talk to you all then have a fantastic three-day weekend This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network