 Thanks everyone and good morning and welcome to CSIS, to our Nigerian visitors as well as to our guests here and on the webcast. I think when we first began this series we were in the middle of the polar vortex. I think maybe our Nigerian guests feel a little bit more at home with this weather outside today. I'm Jennifer Cook. I direct the Africa program here at CSIS. And this marks the third session of the CSIS Nigeria election forum which is a series of events that we began in January of this year and that is going to continue through the Nigerian national elections scheduled for February 2015. We're very grateful to the Ford Foundation which supports this initiative and to some of our partners here, the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Peter Lewis and Paul Lubeck and to the many others here in Washington, D.C., NDI, Christopher Munoz and Sophia Mostrup have been very helpful in suggestions and the many other Nigeria watchers who've given us advice through this issue. I also want to say a big thanks to our staff, Ben Jubner, Freddie Jenkins, George Quist and Josh Knot who have worked to pull this all together. It's not always easy making travel arrangements and visa arrangements from Nigeria. So thanks to you guys. This session will focus on security in Nigeria. Now there are a lot of people with strong opinions here in Washington on whether Nigeria and what's going to happen in Nigeria. The CSIS forum is really intended to ensure that a broad range of Nigerian voices and perspectives are brought into that debate and help shape and inform what we talk about here in Washington, D.C. So with that in mind, this series brings a range of activists, government officials, opinion leaders, NGO activists and community leaders here to Washington for these public events and then we follow them with a series of private consultations with the State Department, with the Defense Department, with civil society groups here in Washington, D.C. as well. And the idea is not only to raise awareness here in Washington about the challenges ahead in Nigeria but also give a little bit of a neutral space. To kind of think out some of the potential solutions and hear from Nigerians where most they'd like the United States to be helpful in the process. So our first session focused on the big challenges associated with the elections, the electoral process, legal issues, the electoral offenses law, the key priority of getting the registration process right, protecting and insulating INEC from political influence and so forth. And we had Professor Jago lead that off with a really great group of civil society leaders as well. Our second session looked at the political parties and we brought leaders from both the PDP and the APC here to Washington. It got off to something of a raucous start. The idea was to get them to talk a little bit about their strategy in ensuring that these elections are peaceful, credible and fair. I have to say there was a good deal of finger pointing and not necessarily so much introspection and taking on responsibility. But I think in the course of the two days there were a number of areas of agreement between the two groups. There's a communique that we issued, it's up on our website. And I think that's a real area to be pushing the political leadership, to be focusing on those areas of common interest, trying to expand them and thinking a little bit beyond the ends of their noses to kind of what's at stake for Nigeria in these elections. This third session, as I said, will focus on security in the national elections. Obviously, there's a great deal of attention on the deteriorating security situation in the northeast, the kidnap of the girls, the brutal murders of many thousands of civilians and levels of brutality and depravity that have garnered really global attention. But there's also a very fragile peace and amnesty in the Delta region and the Niger Delta region. There are kind of traditional flash points in the middle belt and so forth. So there are many security issues at stake in Nigeria. And Nigeria right now is in this period of political flux. So many of these become magnified because of the political attentions. The security situation obviously makes the election process much more difficult. But also I think the election process makes the security situation in some ways more difficult and finding common ground between the two parties and among Nigerians on solutions on the way forward on the security situation becomes that much more difficult. So the session today is to try to look at some of the priorities might be in resolving some of those issues. We have a great first panel that's going to begin by laying out the big security challenges, what they see as the priorities, and where might the United States and Nigeria kind of really begin to tackle some of these big contextual issues. We'll then turn to a panel that has a number of groups that are working on the ground in communities to mitigate violence, to kind of calm rhetoric and reconciliation efforts. And we'll introduce that in a moment. And then following lunch, we'll have Assistant Secretary Linda Thomas Greenfield talk about the U.S. stance on this. We have a pretty crowded agenda. So during the breaks, I ask that you try to keep it short and get back to your seats as much as possible with plenty of time for interaction after the conference is over as well. So we're going to start today with Professor Ibrahim Gambari, who says that he is a professor by training, a diplomat by accident. But he is an elder statesman, I think, who has seen a great deal in Nigeria. As a professor, I can attest to his good work. I was a former student of his. And at the UN, in his position at the UN, he led some of the most difficult and challenging negotiations in places like Myanmar, South Sudan, Zimbabwe, and many others. We're grateful to have you here. And I think you've now returned to Nigeria. And I think that's a good thing for Nigeria. He's also founder of the Savannah Institute, which is a new think tank in Nigeria that's tackling some of these security and governance issues. Following Professor Gambari will be Ambassador Loyola Lascende, who is Director of Policy and Strategy in the Office of the National Security Advisor. He has a long time career as a Nigerian diplomat in many parts of Africa and further abroad. We'll then have Frank Asikodita, who's retired Commissioner of Police for Lagos State, now has a consultancy on security and management issues. You'll have their bios, so there's a lot more to these folks than I can capture here. And finally, we'll have Jibrin Ibrahim, who's former Director of the Center for Democracy and Development. He's an activist, an agitator, an academic, and many more. And we're looking forward to kind of a lively debate here. So with that, Professor Gambari, welcome. And I turn to you. It's OK. Maybe I can be seen. Let me see. Up to you. Let me start by thanking the Director of African Program, CSIS, Jennifer Cook, who is bold enough to admit that she was my former student. And also, thank you for inviting me to come here in my capacity as a founder and chairman of the Board of Directors of Savannah Center, which is a little think tank which tries to establish the nexus between conflict resolution, diplomacy, democracy, and development based in Abuja. May I also recognize the presence of my compatriots who are participating in the discussion, in particular my former colleague at Ahmadubelio University, Zarya, Dr. Ojibu Ibrahim, and also my former colleague in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Lashie Nde. And also, Ibrahim Musa, otherwise known as Rafsanjani, who is actually a fellow delegate at the ongoing national conference in Nigeria. I have also, in our midst, who will testify to the fact that I was just an accidental diplomat, Ambassador Cameron Hume, and, of course, Ambassador Professor Adi Adifui. Now, I'm told I have only about 10 minutes, so I just want to make five points. Five. First, that the security challenges facing Nigeria as the country moves closer to the 2015 national elections, in my view, are more than physical in nature. Because the Nigerian government, through its security apparatus, have demonstrated in recent times that they could actually create safe and secure environment for hosting first, as they did successfully, the World Economic Forum, and also the elections that just concluded in the southwestern state of Akiti. But even there, however, these events, which they successfully hosted and physical security was pretty much guaranteed, are localized. And the challenges of providing physical security for nationwide election in 36 states and federal capital of Abuja remain really challenging. For the military and the police and the security agents, who are really very overstretched in coping with acts of insurgencies, terrorism in the northeast, northwest, north central, the Niger Delta. But in my view, for me, the greater and non-physical challenges is the absence of consensus around planning, conduct, and outcome of the elections in 2015. I'll be making a recommendation specifically on how to promote such a consensus in the emerging political context in Nigeria, which, in our view, will contribute to the integrity, to the acceptability of the elections. Because that's really what it's about, the acceptability and the integrity of elections so that the outcome can be more broadly accepted. Because without that, we have seen that the experience of elections in Nigeria, the experience has been major drivers of conflict and insecurity before elections, during elections, and often after elections. So it's not the physical securing of the voters and the electoral boxes as much as the security of the outcome of the security following the outcome of the elections. The second, and this point of view is not aimed at minimizing the traditional security challenges facing the country. The proliferation of conflicts of violence in the Northeast, in particular, which has necessitated the deployment of troops to the region since the year 2009, as elicited as many of you know, the declaration of state of emergency in three of the six states of the Northeast geopolitical zone over a year ago and has been renewed recently. Still, in 2014 alone, over 4,000 lives have been lost, including school children, villages, raised and massive internally displaced persons. Over half of the people of Borno State now live in Maiduguri, the state capital, because that's the only place they felt particularly secure. The abduction of the 270 schoolgirls in Chibok shocked the world's conscience, but these are manifestations of the endemic insecurity in that area. Then the ethnic settler, sorry, the ethnic and settler dichotomy and the security challenges emanating from the conflict between the two have worsened in North Central State, a North Central zone of Nigeria and the Northwest. We are familiar also with the militancy, the whole theft in the South South, the Niger Delta, as well as incidents of human trafficking and kidnapping the Southeast. Then you have the terrorist acts, bombings, which have been taking place in Kano, in Jaws, Kaduna and Abuja. It is in this climate, the point I'm making is, in this climate and despite the best efforts of the government of Nigeria, that elections at states and national level will be taking place only seven months away. And it's also clear that even greater efforts must be made by the government and the broad spectrum of the Nigerian populace to greatly reduce the level of violence so as to produce relatively safe and secure environment throughout Nigeria prior to, during and after the Castile Ballot throughout the country. In this regard, and this is my third point, the combatting of the violent extremism program ruled out by the National Security Advisor whose colleague is here with us on the 18th of March is a step in the right direction in dealing with the most vicious and relentless acts of extremism of the Boko Haram variety in the Northeast in particular. So we have to recognize that in addition to this proliferation of conflict, the security challenges facing Nigeria is for the long haul. There are no quick fixes in meeting this challenge. And in my view, the solution to the Boko Haram and other violent extremist activities has to be comprehensive, has to be carefully calibrated and has to be sustained. And this must begin by recognizing that this, what is happening in Nigeria is a national, not a regional problem. There has been a tendency in parts of my country where people say, well, that's what is happening in the Northeast, you know, the Boko Haram. It's a national problem, nationally manifesting itself in the Northeast. And so first recognize that this is a national and not a regional problem and then be dealing with and overcoming the three layers of mistrust, three layers of mistrust. First mistrust between the insurgents on the one hand and the federal government on the other. Secondly, between the federal government and the states in the Northeast, many of them, particularly in Yobi, in Bonu and Adamawa, controlled by parties that are in opposition to the central government. And the third and perhaps one of the most serious mistrust is between the Nigerian government and the neighboring countries. And so what is needed are greater synergies with all of them, particularly the neighboring countries, both bilaterally and multilaterally through the Lake Charge Basin Commission. One of the starting points of also addressing the mistrust, particularly the first two, is the impetus of implementing the Galdibmairi and Turaki reports. I won't go into details here, but there are reports that were produced very thoughtful, very good recommendation, but have not been implemented. And some of those who have stuck their neck out to support the implementation of the Galdibmairi to support the implementation of the recommendation, including dialogue, now feel that their credibility is at stake. Fourth point, beyond or in addition to the security, to the security of voters and candidates, that the numeracy related to the rules of the game, and this is for me, this is the most important, the rules of the game, which must be addressed before the elections and broadly endorsed by the major stakeholders in order to reduce their risk of becoming further drivers of violence in Nigeria. These are the real concerns, and there's the real concern that the longer the delay in dealing with them, the higher the possibility that they will not be addressed before the elections, because unfortunately, governance tends to stop and politics take over three to six months before almost all elections in my country. Yet these stakes are getting higher, especially given the fact two principle developers, realignment in the political landscape of Nigeria, with schism in the ruling party and a grooming unity among the opposition group, which didn't used to be before, and this may polarize the contest and especially giving the do or die mentality of some of the political gladiators during the electoral battle. Therefore, for the integrity of the elections, for the prospect of accepting the outcome, which will also reduce the prospect of post-election violence, there is need to pursue the following specific objectives, which my center is proposing. I would like to share with you. First, they need to foster consensus on major issues likely to drive violence in 2015. Two, strengthening communication and interface between civil society groups and key non-state actors who are engaged in the planning and conduct of the 2015 elections. And thirdly, facilitating the building of confidence and trust among the key state and non-state actors who are engaged in the elections. And this is in this regard, that's why my center we would like to, is proposing to establish a council of the wise, consisting of respected and eminent Nigerians to foster consensus and peaceful resolution of the important issues around the planning, the conduct and the outcome of the elections in 2015. This council of the wise will lead efforts to engage Nigerians in several town halls setting meetings to address the city on the Nigerian project, using largely the language of peace, of reconciliation and collaboration and partnership as opposed to the hate language and other forms of extremism. And this approach is consistent with one of the four streams or elements of the National Security Adviser's soft approach to country terrorism, which he publicly articulated in Abuja on the 18th of March, 2014. Finally, I would like to observe that Nigeria is not the only country in the developing world or in the world which has had to battle violent extremism and still hold country-wide elections. We've done that in Afghanistan, Iraq, Myanmar to some extent. And still, how will those elections, whose outcome broadly reflect the will of the people? Hence, the experience of such countries should be carefully examined and appropriate lessons learned and applied. And I believe that if they can do so, obviously Nigeria can also do it. I think it was the Secretary-General of the UN, Bruce Gali, who was once asked on, I think his, on a show in the United States, which country would you like to settle in after he completes his task at the United Nations Secretary-General? And he said there are three countries he would like to go and retire to, if you could, France, because his French is probably better than his Arabic. Second, of course, Egypt. And he said, third, Nigeria and Nigeria. How come? And he said, and I think with a lot of wisdom, that Nigerians, in recent time, they come to the precipice often, but at the neck of time, they often pull back from the precipice. And I believe that they will do so again. But it's just that what's the point of keep going to the precipice and withdrawing when a lot of issues are lost and a lot of problems are created in the process. But I believe that the Nigerians, and that's the note of hope that I would like to end with, is that they will do these elections. It's important that they should do it right. There's the elements that has to be addressed to get it right. And the international community can partner with Nigeria to ensure there's free and fair election because if there's free and fair election, and the current president wins squarely, Nigeria will not collapse. If there's free and fair election, and the opposition wins free and squarely, there will not be, it will not be the end of the world. After we have also seen, even though it's not the small case of one of the states in the Southwest, AKT State, where something unusual in our recent history, Loser, actually congratulated the winner. And because we feel, I feel very strongly, that if Nigeria were to get its rights, and it's still possible, although it's getting late, to put the structures in place to get it right, the demonstration effect and the impact will not be limited to Nigeria. It will have serious positive consequences if it's done right on West Africa and the African continent as a whole. And as stated in one of the recommendations of an ICG International Crisis Group on Nigeria, which are fully endorsed, and I quote, there's a need for the federal, state and neighboring governments of Nigeria to work together to, quote, develop and implement comprehensive plans to tackle not only physical security, and this is really my point, not just physical security, but also the grievances that fuel insurgency, grievances which ultimately cause for radical reforms of governance, as well as Nigeria's political culture. Thank you very much. Thanks very much, Professor. Ambassador Nacienda. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I want to thank the organizers, Jennifer Cook, for inviting the National Security Advisor here today. And I want to also thank my former minister, Professor Gambari, who is an honor to be with you at this panel. So I'm the, our ambassador in Washington. You're welcome. I'm the panelist with me, Odita, and Gibrin. Thank you. Specifically, my paper, which is there on the board, given what was sent to the NSA, is on the role of the federal government of Nigeria in providing security before, during, and after elections. So what I've done starting from the first page is to look at the introductions, but we're going to skip the introductions on this occasion because of time. So I will just go to electoral violence in Nigeria in general. Usually when we talk of violence associated with elections in Nigeria, we tend to forget that it has always been there all along. It has always been there all along right from 1959. The 1959 election was conducted by the British. But it was, all these problems you are talking about today were there. I was probably about seven years or six years old and but I remember there was violence at that time. The only problem was that it was not reported the way the election violence is being reported now. But there was also the 1952, 1954 to the Aussies and things like that. But I will skip that because the main focus is the 2011 election. I just want to take you through because Nigerians, we've always had very highly contested election. At that time, the tension between the action group, the NPC and the NCNC, it's as much as what we have today and Nigeria did not collapse at that time. So sometimes we tend to overanalyze the very things that will come and go, that will come and go. That's the point I'm trying to make of that. Then let's go to the 2000 and then part of the paper, I trace all the electoral bodies from Fedeko, all sorts of things like that and now the conducted elections. So the 2001 elections, among all the elections also fine in Nigeria, the 2001 general elections will stand out as the most meticulously planned and executed. At every election, the role of the electoral body. What I'm saying this is that INEC, the way it's constituted now is really independent of the executive government. There's even a proposal to make it not dependent on the executive arm to be an independent body like the judiciary or the National Assembly. But the best of my knowledge, most countries, the INEC is under the executive arm of government in many countries. Probably you can have a country where it's on its own but maybe I don't know what the National Assembly want to do. But number one point, one of the reasons why it was successful in my own view was the pronouncement of the president. He kept saying that my ambition as president is not what anybody's blood. It's not what the death of one single person and he kept to that word. When analysis is made, people did not, don't refer to that. The posture of the government in power, the posture of the president in particular, the language and the way he behaves is very important and to me that's a fundamental point and he has repeated it again that he will not encourage anybody to reek, he will not go and influence anything and that is very important. However, let me question, for the fact that the president has that view does not mean the governors even his party have that view. That is a problem in that it cannot control the governors. So, but he is the most important and that has achieved that. Then I mentioned the competence of INEC as number two point. The INEC chairman that we have now is a thorough professional. I'm sure before it was appointed, it was checked, it was ASU president, he has occupied many positions and they could see that it's incorruptible, straightforward and he has brought a lot of things, a lot of changes and modifications. The former foreign minister was saying about conducting a free and fair election. In my view, once Nigerians know that the election is free, fair and credible, violence will be limited. It's only when they have a point to say, okay, we're not sure that you can instigate violence. If someone, it is a very good example which the professor Gambari made. The incumbent governor, all the permutations was that he was going to win. When elections were conducted, he lost. There was no violence and that's because people could see that actually the challenger was more popular among the grassroots. That was one of the reasons, not because he went to them to say they should not do violence or things like that. Then number three reason why the 2011 elections went on well was the institution of the Interagency Consolidative Committee on Election Security which provided a platform for the first time for election officials and security agencies to jointly map out strategies to ensure vulnerable free election. When the present time next year man got there, he wrote a letter to the NSA then and then he set up this committee and the committee has been working very well because for the first time in the past, INEC had nothing to do with security agencies. Whatever it wanted to do was pass to the government and government will instruct the security agencies. But now INEC and the security agencies directly sit together before every election. They look at all the security problems that will arise at every election and they take measures to combat them. But more importantly is that every single step, including the number of security agencies at every polling booth, the behavior of security agencies, including moving of materials, these are dealt with extensively. Then the only other point that I would like to say here is that in a country as big as Nigeria that you have 170 million people and at least about 90 million people who are likely potential voters, you are likely to have challenges all the time in that type of election. So you cannot have a completely perfect election. I don't think any country can have that. But Nigeria, we know we can. You always have challenges either of security nature or for logistic nature. So I'm moving to functions of INEC interagency system. I've said some of the things there, so I won't like to repeat it again. But one of the things I've said about election securities that the main problem with election security in Nigeria is the politicians, the behavior of politicians and their pronouncements. Some of the politicians are very desperate. So it has nothing to do with INEC. It has nothing to do with security agencies. And until the culture of do or die election is removed, we are likely to have problems. And I will want to use, of course, the politicians are not here, but I would like to use this opportunity to plead that the election is a very good example of how politicians should behave. If you lost election, you have to lose gracefully and let peace ring. So I will go over the functions of INEC interagency. On this page in which I am now, I just listed all the agencies there, so that you know, because when you say security agencies in Nigeria, some of them are not really security like Fire Service and Co., but they are essential, they are necessary. So the best word to use is MDAs, ministries, departments and agencies. Of course, the head is the Office of Natural Security Advisor, the Ministry of Police Affairs and the Nigerian Police and Police Service Commission. You have three police organizations there. The reason the INEC was informed, not by Office of the INEC, that the Ministry of Police Affairs and the Police Service Commission, because they have disciplinary role over the police that is even taking part in the election, that it is necessary to bring them there. And it's as well. Because while the police is conducting the election, some people are also supervising them to check that they do what they are supposed to do. Of course, all the three arms of the military, they are there. Then the next page, I said INEC team is led by the INEC chairman, which is also the chairman at that level. And then the officers of INEC, then all security agencies. Then I mentioned some of the issues that I'm dealing with, that the committee deals with distribution of electoral app materials, security of polling units, security of personnel. And then at the ICCS, one of the things that we've been doing is to have an operational plan for every single election. And that's why any observer of the Nigerian electoral situation will notice that since 2011, there has been no serious allegations against any security personnel, as opposed to what it was in the past. In the past, security agencies were alleged to have either aided or abetted some politicians to steal ballot boxes or to stop ballot boxes to do a lot of things. But since 2011, to the best of my knowledge, based on all the reports that I've seen, there has been no security agency. In fact, they are on the best behavior now. So like I said earlier, the problem has been shifted to politicians and so not to security agencies. Then the ICCS at the federal level replicated at the state level and at the local government level. At the state level, either the commissioner of police or the residential truck commissioner as the ICCES. And then the police. I'm happy that the former commissioner of police legal status here. It was determined right from the beginning that the police will be the lead agency among the security agencies. In the past, it used to be the army, the military. But within the military, the army. But because the army is supposed to have superior firepower. But it has been decided that election is not a matter of firepower. It's a matter of internal security. And therefore the police that has the number one challenge of making sure that internal security is dealt with is the lead agencies. All other agencies will have to towing with the police operational plan for the security. And then on the page I am on the day of election, I told you what will happen there. The operational plan, the number of people. It was in ICCS that it was decided that at every polling unit there should be no police or security agencies carrying weapons. So you will not see anyone with AK-47 or guns or anything. They will just be there. There are three levels of security. At the polling unit, you have one or two policemen or one policeman, one security agency either from SSSF or from. That is just to make sure of crowd control and to help people to make sure that things go well. Then the second layer will be mobile patrol around the city, around the town. Then the third layer will be the military which is made by the army which is at the gates of the city, of the state to make sure that you don't bring in people from other states. These are the fears. I have not seen any place where they brought in people from other states but policemen make that allegation. So the army is the third layer just to make sure if things get out of hand they are able to compete it. Then after elections, I said that based on the experiences of the security agencies, security before during and after election. In the past, after election security was not a problem. Many Nigerians as soon as election results are announced maybe for the first day you could have some disturbances but generally they just go their ways. But now the security agencies have learned from the 2011 and all I can tell you now is that I don't see how election violence will take place that security agencies will not be able to control it. But let me go back and just explain this briefly. We have a problem in Nigeria and I put it there somewhere in the paper. The press in particular and politicians in general, they have this idea that they will make predictions of doom in the equity election. I went for a meeting in the equity in the Kogos Spring which organized by FES, Frederick Egbert Stiflung, INEC was invited, Office of the NSA and everybody. And the projection was that between fire and firemen it was tough. Too close to call and there was going to be violence and everybody was afraid so that everyone was deployed there. There was no single violence during the election or after the election. So the press tends to up the ante. They tend to speculate and some gullible Nigerians also followed them. The Anambra election took place. There was no violence. Everybody was predicting violence. The Edoustedt election took place, no violence. The Ondo took place, no violence. The equity took place, no violence. Of course I accept doing a state election is different from doing a national election. We are going to have more problems in the national election but our experience is that if you listen to the press or you're reading what is said in the newspaper, then you have a wrong notion of what is likely to happen in Nigeria. I don't know why our press is like that but that creates some problem entirely. Because anybody anywhere you go at Nigeria, what is happening? And when you know what is happening, but the press will make it look out of order. We just blow it out of proportion. And so I want to appeal to you that if you are reading the press in Nigeria, then you're going to a wrong picture. The situation is not as bad as the press is portraying it. Security challenges. Yes, I said that despite the success of ISIS, a security agency since it has still remained some security challenges. Number one, I've mentioned behavior and utterances of politicians. Electoral materials, yes, this is still a problem. If you know the terrain of Nigeria, I'm told there are some places in the north of Nigeria is covered with sand. It's not motorable. You cannot use a motorcycle. How do you get there? You have to fly the electoral materials by Elcopter. And in these remote locations, not many people are really there. So electoral materials always arrive there late. And also the number of security agencies there are so few. But that is one area. The other area is in the south, riverine areas in Nigeria, Seldo, and Niger Delta area. You can travel from Yenogua on the sea in this riverine for three hours. And you see small, small villages along the way. This is where we have challenges. That one, I don't know how we can, because we don't have enough helicopters, we don't have enough boats, we don't have enough challenges. And the number of people there, so that is a problem that we are likely to continue to have security challenges. Then the last one which I mentioned there is the use of courts. Politicians have the way of going to courts all the time to say I'm the candidate, somebody is not the candidate. Two or three days before an election, you have three candidates, one court in Yenogu will rule for one candidate, another one in Abuja, another one in Lagos. So there's confusion as to who is actually the candidate of PDP, for example, or APC. And that type of thing. Then the coordinating role of the National Security Advisor's Office. In the first program there, I tried to establish that by law, by the Constitution, the National Security Advisor has a function of coordinating the activities of security agencies in general. That of election, which is a major security challenge in particular and other areas. And that I also went to former organs and the NSA act an instrument just to let you know that Security Advisor has this constitutional role. I also mentioned INEC, how INEC is aware of that and how INEC has been partnering with the security agencies through the Office of the NSA and then what we've been doing in SCCS. Then security 2015 election, finally, I am of the view. I mentioned all the other elections that have been done, Kogi, Edo, Andoanambra, and Akiti. And that everything will be done to make sure that the 2015 elections. Let me talk about the noticed. Initially, INEC saw the noticed as posting a challenge because you don't want to conduct election where Boko Haram is active. But then the governors of the three states, they said no, they liked elections. And as of now, it looks as if both the governors and the people they want elections to hold there and INEC will conduct elections there. So there will be no part of Nigeria in 2015 that you will not have elections. Of course, what Boko Haram does, whenever there's a major event in Nigeria, they will pick a week before that and throw a bomb somewhere. They did it during this last world economic forum. They went to Yaya. Probably that can be done, but that does not mean that there will be no elections. Because Boko Haram is now that widespread. They can just do gorilla operations coming and come out. So elections will be held there as long as the people are willing. The security agencies are always ready. And I hope that we will not have challenges beyond us. On that note, I would like to conclude my presentation. Thank you. Thanks very much, Ambassador. I welcome everybody here to this very interesting program. My name is Franco Dita, as you've been told. I want to also say how I feel so great being in Washington, D.C., and I thank those who invited me. I want to recognize the very distinguished panelists, especially my big oga, Professor Ambassador Gamberi. I want to assure everyone here that Nigeria is a very safe country. In case you want to come to Nigeria, feel very safe to come, in spite of what people make others believe. That's why when they asked me how long I want to stay in the U.S., after the conference, I saw a living following there because my country is so sweet. So I will listen to Professor Gamberi and the last speaker, even though they are not police officers, they have given an X-ray of what security situation is like in Nigeria. And I will only add the icing to the cake they have baked. I will concentrate on the issue, the role of the police in elections in our country. The role of the police in elections is the same everywhere in the world. And the role is simply to enforce electoral laws alongside the laws of the land, ensure the structures are kept obeyed to ensure the business of elections through voting for their choice candidates are conducted without letter hindrance, to also ensure that venues for election remain safe before, during, and after elections. Thereafter, security moves to the coalition centers to ensure that the area remains serene and end up eventually with the protection of the referee, which is the INEC who announces election results. The challenges the police face during elections are in different segments. Some have been highlighted by the last speakers. One is the electoral officers. Their inability to arrive at election venues on time with their materials, that also creates a lot of problem. And the other is their ability to be transparent. That is shunning corruption so that they don't do the wrong things looking the other way. The other one is logistics. What are the things they require? That's the need to bring to the election area so that the job of the policeman is made much easier. The next are politicians. Because they want to win willy or nilly, they bring agents that they have a right by law to present to the electoral boots who also cause a lot of confusion because they want their amount to win and if they discover that their man is now winning, through the way voting is going on, they become a problem for the police. So the policemen are expected to be very vigilant and keep their eyes open. And of course, the next group that proved the challenge for the police are members of the press. Fortunately, I belong to part of it too because I am in journalism. But some of us try to, like, but let's say they say it, try to blow things out of proportion or cry wolf whether it's none. And as a result, people get on Earth really scared about things that are not likely to be there. And of course, the last one is the judiciary. As also been mentioned by the last speaker, the issue of using judicial instruments to cause confusion. It creates a lot of problem for law enforcement agencies. In general, security in Nigeria was before now left to the police and other security agencies because our people believe, like those of all who are born again Christians, that they watch man, watch it in vain if the Lord is not watching. And so everything has to go to law enforcement agencies and that which the police do not do, then this is the problem for everybody to cope with. The good news anyway is that general security awareness and voter education is ongoing and people are beginning to realize that security is everybody's business. And thank God for NGOs in Nigeria to which I also belong, because I sit on the board of Clean Foundation. They are becoming police, the policemen. They are playing over side functions in ensuring that the policemen who are even posted on duty are doing their work and everybody else are involved. So everybody is getting educated. INEC is also part of security. And everyone in Nigeria is now beginning to ensure that security is no longer at the doorstep of police and security agencies, but it's everybody's business. And all hands are now on deck. Let me talk briefly about Boko Haram. Boko Haram is one threat that is now the issue in elections in Nigeria. But we have had two elections and we did not see Boko Haram. Boko Haram, although they are still keeping our girls, we are praying that they will return them safely back to us. I want to say that the problem was initially because we did not adhere to early warning. We thought it was the issue of some religious fundamentalists until it turned criminal. We started seeing that they are now behaving as though they are above the law. It was only then that we began to feel that their emergence of Boko Haram has become the beginning of wisdom in terms of security awareness in Nigeria. So it's not as bad as being portrayed in the press. I know that they have not certain manufacturing bombs in Nigeria and no bomb is being exploded. They are using improvised explosive devices to scare people and create explosions and that's what goes on in Nigeria. And we hope that it will not go beyond that. As of now, people, even members of the public are beginning to take their faith into their hands. They are no longer enjoying that field day and easy ride they were having because awareness has been generated and people are beginning to be non-tolerant of their irresponsible activities. So I see them as challenge but I also see them as no challenge because hands are on deck. Security agencies, hitherto we are operating independently but thank God for the office of the National Security Advisor who have brought all the security agencies under one umbrella and we now have a synergy. So it's not a question of someone trying to outwit the other. So we are now working in synergy, co-opting members of the public, educating them on their role and what they should do at any given time and with that I want to believe that they will not constitute any threat. Election is still months away. We have had two elections in Nigeria, like I said Boko Haram did not create a problem and we want to believe that it will not create a problem even in 2015 because the government is working hard with of course other nations who have indicated their willingness to help Nigeria fight the issue of insurgency which is not alien to the world. We are just having a bit of our own and I want to believe that ours will soon be 18 of the past, it's not our culture. Nigeria is a peace loving nation and we are not used to issues of that nature and so that we put to rest very soon. In conclusion let me say that we have had two elections which has also been observed by the last speaker, AKT has been a dress rehearsal. We know it's a state but the gains of AKT will be used in planning the election for the nation. One of the problems we used to have is the problem that is still persisting anyway, the issue of unemployment. There are too many ado hands in Nigeria who are likely to be used as tools by politicians to create problems. But thank God even election itself provides employment for some of them because they are used as electoral officers and they are beginning to know better that they are not ambassadors of their families to be part of anything that will be crisis. And because although I was an active service I'm still part of the policing in Nigeria even in my private enterprise. Thank God for Madame who realized that although I am retired, I am not tired. I'm still working. I want to say that the job of policing in Nigeria has improved quite a lot and a lot of the challenges that were having manpower development and training has been beefed up and election lessons from the past have been learned and measures have been taken to correct them. I am part and parcel of that exercise. I can tell you territorially that you present my IG, MDR Bakar is walking around the clock with those of us who are still alive and well and strong to be part of our patriotic zeal to see Nigeria get a better bargain in its security experts and in the elections. On that note I want to say thank you for your attention and I thank you for welcoming me here. Thank you. Thank you Jennifer and colleagues of John Hopkins for inviting me for this important discussion. Sometimes I'm an agitator but because my friend Professor Defi is here and he doesn't tolerate anybody who criticizes Nigeria I'll behave myself. I think all the speakers mentioned equity and they've made the example, they made the case that equity is a dress rehearsal for next year's elections. They are wrong, equity is not a dress rehearsal for next year's elections. Equity happened with a massive, massive deployment of security agencies. That's not possible in a general election. Equity happened with nine national electoral commissioners, another seven resident electoral commissioners. In short, the whole resources of the nation have been put together for the state elections that have happened and it's not going to be a dress rehearsal in 2015 when it's a totally different context. Each state will have only one resident electoral commissioner and the level of supervision will not be what we've seen in equity. Going to equity for the elections, I was quite frightened by the arms that were brought to equity from Abuja. I mean we continued passing on the road all sorts of tanks, all sorts of vehicles that I've seen in cartoons, I don't know where they are. I mean it was frightening. I do agree the elections were free and fair but that sort of deployment is not going to happen for 2015. The issue about 2015 is that you have two political forces that are determined to continue to come to power next year. One is President Jonathan. He is determined to continue to empower beyond 2015. He has been seriously warned by Niger Delta militants that if he doesn't continue to empower they will deal with it. We've studied repeatedly that they are going to start a war if Jonathan doesn't continue. At the same time, you have APC which represents the first time in Nigerian history when political opposition parties have merged and for the first time have a real possibility of taking over power. So it's a huge contest. Professor Gambari, our Raf Sanjani here in the National Conference we've had detailed reports about attempts to manipulate them to give an extension to the Jonathan presidency. I'm glad they are resisting and it's fine for the Office of the National Security Advisor to say this president is committed to nonviolent elections but it's action that matters. No, I should remind myself these are important people. Sometimes I forget. But I think the thing about next year's elections is that the security conditions are exceptional. We have spoken about Boko Haram. Boko Haram is a real threat to Nigeria. It's not just the question of occasional bomb blasts. It's the fact that security agencies do not appear capable of responding to them. And that's a real problem. Over the past two and a half months we've been involved with this bring back our girls' trouble. And what really struck us was when the parents of these girls came to demonstrate in Abuja. That was on the 30th of May. And the point they made was that in the two weeks since the abduction occurred no member of any security agency in Nigeria went to Chibok. And it became clear that the security agencies were afraid Boko Haram would come back. So I don't think it's good to downplay the seriousness of the situation. The Niger Delta have said timing to make this a question of the existence of Nigeria. They've said repeatedly either we continue to empower or the existence of Nigeria will be compromised. Therefore I see you are looking at me. Jennifer I'm a professional troublemaker. Don't mind me. I think the most serious issue beyond Niger Delta and Boko Haram is the growth of rural banditry in Nigeria. In so many states in the Northwest and in the Middle Belt, organized banditry is taking over the rural space and cattle rustling has become a huge issue. So I think it's legitimate to ask whether Nigeria will survive 2015 elections. Here we all have to be optimists. I like the way Professor Gamber reported that we have a history of resilience. And whenever I begin to doubt our existence as a nation I have a reassurance plan I use for myself and I usually advise my students to read it. Which is to read a very brief history of the First Republic in a small textbook by Professor Dudley. It's called Nigerian Government and Politics. And on his chapter on the First Republic he took us through the story of state collapse in Nigeria through the First Republic. It started with the census crisis of 1963 where it appeared as if the country would break up over the question of numbers. Numbers have always been central to our history as a nation. Who is the majority and how will the majority keep power? The 63 census controversy was so explosive. People thought the Nigerian state would collapse completely in 1963. 1964, the elections boycotted by the NCRC and the legitimacy of the Taffa-Alewa regime that came in was very questionable. Zik almost refused, if I initially refused to recognize the government. And that constitutional crisis almost led to the breakdown of Nigeria. 1965, the Western Regional Crisis when as provocation the NCRC, I mean the NPC provoked the emergence of a pro-federal government party to come into power in the West. 1966, the coup which was very sectional in terms of the original leaders killed. 1967, the Civil War. And I think the point he was making is that if you take the First Republic almost every year the story was about state collapse in Nigeria. So it's now 51 years that we have been talking about the collapse of the Nigerian state and we still haven't completely collapsed. So this is my support for Professor Adefue. He's been my friend for a long time when he was in the course. I want to conclude by saying, well, is the situation now comparable to these repeated narratives of near-state collapse in the First Republic? Is it the same situation? I think it's not. The first difference we have today is the end of pacification. In 1903, the British completed the first phase of the pacification of Nigeria. For the next 10 years the whole issue was to stop slavery, establish effective control. And since then there has been pacification in rural Nigeria. That pacification is now ended in so many states in the Middle Belt and in the Northwest, armed bandits, just armed bandits are taking over huge territories and they are focused on anything of value and what's of value is cattle. And nobody is safe. All my elite friends who had bought cattle and set up farms, all of them have lost their cattle. These armed gangs take over forests and the security agencies are not able to break them up. It means the control of the monopoly of arms where the security agencies is ended and more and more states are being taken over by bandits and that's a very serious issue. It's serious because it's really a question of the capabilities of our security agencies. I mentioned the point that if Boko Haram has persisted and has been growing in strength it's because of lack of effective response. I think it's clear that the corruption has eaten deep into our security agencies and their capacity to fight has reduced considerably. There's also been exceptionally high levels of politicization within these security agencies and this creates a climate in which it becomes very difficult to see how the elections next year will pan out. I think the most serious element of the difficulties for me is the loss of capacity of our political elite to negotiate compromises anymore. This is an advert. In my column today I spoke about the lunacy emanating out of the national conference taking decisions that are palpably wrong that are not implementable and that will compromise the security and the future of the country. Our hope with the national conference is that it will create an atmosphere in which people will begin to learn how to compromise and I really commend the role of Professor Gamberi who had been trying to bring his diplomatic skills towards that end but he will do all the diplomacy and those who agreed with him at night will go in the morning and insult him and throw out what they had all agreed on and I think that attitude is a serious challenge that we're going to encounter in next year's elections. So yes, let's be optimists because we need to be. The Nigerian state can't afford to collapse because the implications for Africa and for the world is too serious. Seeing what has happened in the Central African Republic where there is a meltdown of the security agencies that will be a child's play when you compare that with what the impact of an Nigerian collapse would be and I think for that reason alone it is important we continue the search for ways in which we can continue to mend that nation. I however do not think we should downplay the seriousness of the situation in which we find ourselves today. Thank you. Thank you very much. I know Ambassador Gamberi wanted to just say a quick word in response. Normally I don't disagree with Jibo but I just wanted to correct the fact that what I said about the recent election which is the southwest state of Nigeria. I didn't say that it was a dress rehearsal for the national election in 2015 because I say quite clearly that although the security agencies were able to create safe and secure environment for that election that does not guarantee that they will be able to replicate this in elections come 2015 because of the more national and in the face of the multiplicity of challenges and violence that is going to, that is going on in the country at the moment. Just a correction. Yeah, I was actually referring to the commissioner of police. Do you confess you said that? Do you confess? Exactly, so I'm glad that he accepted my clarification. Okay, we'll give the commissioner a 30 second break. Yes, I said it's a dress rehearsal for the security because we now realize that there was some kind of cooperation between the public, the security self and the police themselves. That we now realize that it's not a game of number. And the more security personnel you have in the area, the better for us. We know that the only security agency in Nigeria is not the Nigeria police. We have the immigration, we have the customs, we have the federal safety, we have the safety core, the civil defense core. Election is something that takes within a few days if more personnel are drawn from these security agencies and deployed in every state now there are commands of both the Nigeria police, the civil defense core, the immigration, customs and federal safety. Since it's a game of number, the more people you find in uniform and there are also volunteer agencies that now wear uniform that are co-opted into doing security. And I want to believe that if we have more security as it has been proven in equity, that we can now have more people deployed. I know that a lot of security men were pulled into equity. I was there too and I saw exactly what happened. That's why I said it was addressed to yourself for it. I discussed it with the IG. I said you are successful because there were another committed security personnel there. A lot of provisions were made for their logistics. Care was also there. So it's not a question of a policeman being on duty and he wants to drink water and he has to leave his beach to go and get water to drink. Efforts were made to provide everything on the spot so that everybody remained on duty. And the chances, if there were those who had to have allowances paid to them, they had the allowances in their pockets. So the issue of being distracted to ask somebody to assist you financially getting into corrupt practices was not there. So it's not clear because the security was up to date. Politicians were unable to play their usual game. And so I felt that that was a proper dress rehearsal. We now know that it is best to police properly and police adequately with capacity and everything. And that will make a election even in a larger segment to still be better. That's my opinion. Thank you. Thanks very much. We'll open up for questions in a minute. I mean, what struck me was there's no amount of security presence of security forces that is going to assure the security of these elections. It's just too vast a country, the rural banditry that you mentioned, the Northeast right now. And all of you mentioned the role of the political leadership on both sides of the party to rein in the inflammatory rhetoric on the political leadership on both sides to call out those members of their parties who engage in that kind of political rhetoric that is only inflammatory. You mentioned the credibility of the judicial system and the mechanisms to adjudicate election disputes that has to be credible. Otherwise people tend to take the streets. The question of managing expectations. When I was in the last election, there was a huge jubilation when the opposition won the election in the town. But the next day when the national results came out, people were stridently in the streets. So the communication on political leaders from NGOs and so forth on managing expectations. The rhetoric from political leadership before and after. I think this is why the akiti model of a gracious concession speech and then everyone mentioned kind of getting the governors on side as well and the challenge of that. It strikes me, you know, the competitive aspects of elections is what we tend to focus on. But the only way that they work and that they're, that they can be secure is if there's a fundamental consensus, which is how you started at the center that we're better together than played by the rules of the game. So efforts to build that consensus at the national gubernatorial level, at the local level and so forth. It's really important. Why don't we open up for questions. I'll take three at a time and then we'll turn back to the panel. Three or four at a time if you want to address it to someone specifically say that and please wait for the mic and then we'll turn to the panel shortly. So yes, the gentleman there. No, I didn't recognize you, Richard. Welcome. All right. That's okay. Thank you. This is a very informative presentation. A concern I do have. I mean, I recognize the need for a public relations exercise because Nigeria gets so much bad press. And there is so much focus on Boko Haram. But I think we have to be careful that it doesn't shift into a certain bit of complacency. Jibril Ibrahim has tried to correct the portrayal of elections in Nigeria. And in fact, as he pointed out, the elections of 64 and 65 were very critical in terms of the Civil War. Nigeria does not only go to the brink and pull back, Nigeria sometimes falls over the brink as it did then and with a million people lost. The next major crisis period in Nigeria was the 93-98 period. And it started with 12 elections and ended with Sani Abacha proceeding to elections with the support of the five parties. And Nigeria was very critical in terms of Nigeria, very much committed to the elections. So I feel that 2015 should not be downplayed. You know, I think the pre-elections, the elections, the post-election, I think it's good to mention it, but Nigeria getting through those elections and what those elections could trigger, given the geopolitical situation in Nigeria could lead to some very serious consequences. And I think so. That is the tone I'm hoping that the conversation will proceed today rather than, you know, don't listen to the press, things are okay in Nigeria, etc., etc. Thanks very much, Richard. Ni. Thank you very much. My name is Ni Akwete. My question is directed to Professor Gamberi. Your proposed counsel of wise people that you are talking about, actually it's a suggestion. Would you consider giving the role of youth as the ones who perpetrate the violence at the behest of politicians, would you consider putting a lot of youth in your commission and also women because mothers and sisters and girlfriends will have a lot of influence on the youth whether they will go and fight or not. Thank you. Morning, everyone. Ambassador Robert Jackson recently testified before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee and he stated, and I quote, the U.S. government recently deployed an 18-member interagency team of military and law enforcement assistants as well as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance support. My question is, has this type of support proven beneficial and has the Johnson administration taken full advantage of the support provided with full transparency? Thanks. Let's take one more if there is one right now. Deirdre. Freddie. Oops. Deirdre Lupin, University of Pennsylvania. Thank you all for some very interesting presentations. My question is directed primarily to doctors Gombari and Ibrahim. There is a strong tension in Nigeria now between one good which is the need for a debate to press for an improved quality of life and improved standard of living on many fronts, health education, power supply, job creation, etc. And on the other hand to progress through this electoral process in a way that ensures unity and peace of the country. Now the tension between these two goods hopefully would not lead to tragedy, often tragedy is defined as a tension between two goods but could lead to the opening of a space in which a debate and free and open honest debate about the future progress of the country can take place. Now the national conference was one attempt in fact to do this but as we have seen and as Gibrin has pointed out we haven't seen a great deal of success in the final consensus from that meeting yet. So my question is where can this debate occur? Is there an opening for this discussion about the future of Nigeria and its progress? Thank you. Let's start with that should we would you like to reply to kind of Richard Joseph's comment on that there is a great deal at stake here and you know kind of downplaying the threats you don't want to let that fall into complacency but you want to respond to that and then perhaps the US assistance and how you've seen that play out. I think the comment is well taken because you can never be sure of what will happen. You have a chain reaction when it starts you will not be sure of where to end so I take it that like the 1964 election in the West those who did the coup in 1965 said it was one of the reasons and I led to civil war so you can have things like that but at the same time we must have a balance. If you look at the history of Nigeria as a general tendency even among Nigerians but in particular among foreigners to always have the worst case scenario there was an American diplomat that has been saying that Nigeria was going to collapse in 2011 before that it was going to collapse every year it was going to collapse now when you go and say that just because there are problems or tension collapse of a country is different from we have crisis. When you say collapse I think to me it's not it's a major it's a major problem it's a major thing yes I agree that we have these problems it's being managed the government in Nigeria has small collapse you cannot compare Nigeria to some countries that they don't have any go I don't want to measure any country the government is that the security agencies are there to maintain peace and law and order at the end of the day but this national conference that Professor Gambari and the Rastrajanmi are members that is one of the reasons why the government decided that it's going to set it up of course some politicians started that it's not necessary so they are having discussion there but they are having differences even within that discussion but it just shows that Nigeria is a vibrant society everybody will give one view or the other but to say that Nigeria is inherently unstable to me it's the organization of the problem it's not but your comment is very necessary nobody is sweeping security or violence in 2015 under the cap and no we are aware of what will happen and will take measures to combat them that's all I can say regarding the second question about American assistance America says that they will not give military no troops no later weapons they will give intelligence that's what I've read so far and what I've had so far through many and it's working it will add to whatever we were getting before but it's not only America France has done it a lot even our neighboring countries I remember in Professor Gambari's which he was talking of synergy between the neighboring countries with the exception of only Cameroon even before the conference in France which President Orlando was put together or being in Republic has always cooperated had a very good relationship and Nijie and Chad Cameroon for reasons of territorial Cameroon is always afraid that Nigeria has territorial ambition it has always been there but even now they are cooperating so we don't have but I think it will take time the support the Americans are giving will not produce immediate result but with time I'm sure it will lead to something but let me talk about the Chivo Guest because when people are thinking of American support they are thinking of rescue of Chivo Guest you cannot use military force if the Guest are with Boko Haram because then in the process you kill Boko Haram and kill the Guest so whatever you are going to do you have to be patient you have to give it time it has to in my view be negotiation but if you don't see the Guest within three weeks of the support then you start to say what is the military doing everything cannot be by force and I think this is a delicate situation I don't want to refute other countries there are two groups of thought in Nigeria some say don't negotiate with terrorists some say okay if it's your daughter you will negotiate so there is argument back and forth but I think it will take some time and with the last meeting last week in the Council of State another avenue is being opened for negotiation for the release of the Guest because they are the number one priority now in all this Boko Haram crisis and I think before long we are going to come to the end of Boko Haram problem one thing I know is that Nigeria is more solid is more resilient Boko Haram problem cannot destroy Nigeria and cannot really do too much damage that it will be contained to the area where it is for a very long time one because even people in the north they don't support Boko Haram Boko Haram cannot do more damage if the local people don't support them two not where the southern part of the country nobody supports Boko Haram so how are they going to force on the people their ideology with nobody accepts I don't see how how that is possible because when you talk of security in Nigeria people just look at the Bombay and the security and say Nigeria will be unstable what about the are there no people inside Nigeria to accept that ideology or resist them that's where you have the civilian JTF now which is coming up very strongly I don't have time to go into the details but I just want to tell them that the American Air Force is appreciated and is going to use what not immediately to take some time also for the point on the negotiation process Professor Gopari first of all Richard Joseph I align myself completely with the fact that this is not the time for complacency regarding elections in Nigeria and the security situation with 15 is probably going to be tighter than ever before most the governing party has until recently been counting on the disunity among the opposition and that disunity might still manifest but the sign is that the opposition parties are getting more united and the number of governors that have defected from the ruling party have actually joined the opposition so they will bring the energy finances and other resources so the race is going to be tighter the security environment is not the most conducive maybe it's not as bad as it's sometimes projected but it's not conducive to a peaceful atmosphere that we need something can still be done between now and then but it's not there yet thirdly there is no common understanding among the political parties among serious issues the opposition of being behind Boko Haram the opposition is accusing the government party of being behind Boko Haram there is the opposition says the president is already campaigning contrary to electoral laws they said no we are not campaigning there is no yet the fact that the former governor of Ikiti state congratulated the winner that's the exception to the rule yet usually if you lose somebody your opponent has rigged and you go to court you instigate violence so anybody that is complicit about the situation in my view is wrong but the threat could be exaggerated but there is need to do more and that's why the idea of the council of the wise take your suggestion wisdom does not only lie in the future generations like us the women, the youth should be involved and their voices are getting increasingly being heard and so any conversation or debate about the future of the country away from violence definitely has to include the youth and the women and by the way in this national conference going on I think the more impressive members of the national assembly and the youth sadly but that is the fact finally on the debate about the future of Nigeria there is not going to be one place to have the debate because just bringing 492 Nigerians together for four months in the national conference that cannot be the beginning and the end of the debate there has to be several centers of conversation about the future of Nigeria and to emphasize what is positive what unites us what a united peaceful prosperous just Nigeria is for the greater benefit for all of us for the neighboring country and for Africa as a whole one last point about Richard Joseph is yes the civil war yes we are the terrible civil war but nobody in Nigeria as far as I know and if you're wrong you know that in many civil wars in the world 50% of the chances that they return to the civil war within 10 year period that has not happened in Nigeria and I hope it doesn't that's positive secondly the abacha issue that you raised is true we came close again to the principle in the end that has actually brought about the democracy the pro-democracy forces that were very very influential in the return to civil and democratic rule in 1999 thank you Jibo you get the last word we're going to have to unfortunately wrap up with that it's on yeah oh no it's not yes I think the issue about Nigeria is that the premium on power is extremely high and people are ready to do anything to get access to that power my main concern now is the way in which politicization has really got entrenched within the security agencies I mean dozens of army generals were removed just to get somebody to be the head of the army we also what happened in Kano over the appointment of the Amia when all security details were removed from a sitting governor we've seen security agents top the movement of state governors and when power at the federal level is used against perceived opposition in a very reckless manner you are setting the stage for state collapse and I think it's very important that the office of the NSA in particular draws the attention of the president to the very important necessity of neutrality of security agencies once security agencies do not act in a neutral and non-partisan manner you are opening the floodgates to confusion and the risk of political collapse and I think that message is the most important now I would have wanted to tell the president directly myself but I don't have access to it so please convey my message we are unfortunately out of time we've actually run a little bit over and we're going to have to move to the next panel I'd ask if you want to grab coffee please do so but please try to be back in your seats within 10 minutes max so that we can keep things moving along thanks very much and thanks to our panel for being here