 Okay, dear minister Arctic friends, how many are Arctic friends in here raise your hands? Okay, how many feel a bit concerned today about the Arctic raise your hands? That's great. So how many feel it's very important that we actually have a report looking at the Arctic resilience Raise your okay. So the seminar is a full success. We can now tweet Everybody's happy. That's great. Welcome to this important seminar We are so happy and I would say that the really on the behalf of the two because they implementing Organizations the stock of resilience center at the stock of university and the stock of environment Institute But with extreme support from the Swedish government the US government and so many Colleagues around the world that has been working so hard with this report of the last five years actually and Today it's here and we can say that it It did arrive at good timing to be honest as you noticed and Many of you I'm sure have noticed there has been a lot of writing about what is happening in the Arctic right now with average or with With temperatures at 20 degrees above normal in some areas in the Arctic, which is of course extreme So this is timely this report If you want to tweet This is these are the two hashtags that there are two hashtags means that we couldn't come to you know a conclusion We couldn't come to a consensus. This is quite typical for the Arctic to be honest Many actors are there and you know, it's sometimes difficult to reach a consensus, but at least we only have two So these are two if you really want to make a splash on the Arctic and the flow of information there hashtag Arctic and linked to the report ARR.2016 and I just wanted to show one picture This is this one I grabbed from the internet just ten minutes before we started You have all seen this many many times And it's very symbolic today because you can see the extent of the sea ice the blue line measured against the extreme year that we had in 2012 the dotted line and What is normal an average bit from 1981 to 2010 which is the full line there and what you can expect as The deviation from normal and you can see that we are Now below the most extreme year that we have measured So this is timely. This is happening right now. This is a picture from today and If you have a chance to read the article in the Guardian that came on top today Actually referring to this report, which is wonderful They also pinpoint one other scary thing and this is the fact that one of the key agencies in the world to monitor and track changes NASA They are under threat of losing quite substantial funding for their environment research as well And this is based on that these capacities So we have to make sure to focus on the article on the role of science Technology research as we move forward. We don't have all the answers and policy makers definitely need good advice still Anyway, I will soon let the seminar start The only thing I would like to do is that today you will meet a minister You will meet Professionals that have been working with the report and many of the scientists but there are also a lot of people working behind the scene and And I'm sure on the US side Maybe Joel you can mention a few people on your side that has actually been supporting the process But on the Swedish side, I also would like to mention Jeanette Kranz Who has been completely instrumental all through this process and Actually also through the difficult times when we did even in Sweden Sometimes have difficulties to mobilize the political support because the Arctic feels quite distant But you believed in the project and you have really helped us a lot Fredrik Hannitsch, is he here? No, Fredrik Hannitsch now at the foreign ministry But otherwise earlier at the Ministry for Environment who was instrumental where we started this whole thing Andres Gjato, the Arctic ambassador has been working Extremely hard with us to make sure that the report is really on the political agenda Not least at the Arctic Council meetings, but also been active all through Marianne Lille Sjöld at Naturvårdsverket, Swedish EPA Earlier also extremely instrumental instrumental in all this and I also like to mention the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Stockholm Resilience Center communications teams Because they have been so instrumental in pushing really the information out and supporting this seminar today Not least very important role Resilience is not easy to communicate sometimes It's not true. It's a tough job, but today we're here to do so So without further delay, you have seen this, you know, it's urgent You know that we have to really get things moving and in order to get things moving you need politics. You need brave politicians That's the thing and Sweden is you know, we are full of brave politicians just standing there ready to take action And to illustrate this I would like to invite our minister for environment Karolina school for the Ministry of Environment and energy a warm applaud Thank you, and I would like of course to say yes To welcome you all to the Ministry of Environment and Energy in Stockholm It is fantastic to see so many of you here And we are here to participate in the large launch of the Arctic Resilience report It was back in 2011 that the Swedish government took the initiative to produce this report five years of hard work Had led us to this moment But of course the hard work is far from over This report will help us though to bridge science and policy and I believe that adjusting the politics to science is Exactly what we need to do and We need to do it now The Arctic is the alarm clock that the world of the world when it comes to climate change This very week we have very painfully been reminded of by this by several new insights Mentioned by Mr. Gillum Hanna. There are now places in Arktis with the temperature more than 20 degrees above normal The recent ice loss in Greenland and and the sea level that comes with that Have caused the axis of the earth to turn east It's remarkable One of the key Conclusion in the Arctic Resilience report is that the single most step to slow The pace of the Arctic change is to rapidly reduce the use of fossil fuel So what do we do with this knowledge? Here in Sweden we are determined to become one of the first fossil free welfare states in the world But I know that we are not alone in this Recently in Marrakesh, I strongly felt that there is a political momentum in the climate change politics I'm hearing from brave mayors brave business leaders and Brave leaders of from the states deep many states Saying now we we have the map is clear We're on the route and we will continue on the climate route and facing the climate change together As we all know co2 is not the only thing that is accepting the Accelerating the warming in the Arctic Black carbon, which is also known as suit is another big challenge Since snow and ice Contribute by coaling the reflecting sunshine warming increases when snow and ice disappear and Here the Arctic plays a very important role Our emissions of black carbon are more easily Transported to areas with ice and snow Since the last championship of the Arctic Council Sweden have pushed the Arctic Council to take action to reduce black carbon emissions and at the Arctic Ministerial at in 1915 Countries agreed that we shall adopt an ambitious goal on black carbon by the next Arctic Arctic Ministerial held to be held next year and Sweden have working been working very closely to the United States to ensure That the proposed common targets will be ambitious for real Because this target will not only set the standard from the Arctic Countries, but will play a role as an example for other countries and regions We therefore very much hope that the US will continue working for an ambitious goal to be adopted at the next year's meeting warming that we see leads to disruptions in human activities and These changes often Effects the indigenous people first because they love their livelihoods are very very cling to nature The warming also results in melting of the permafrost which leaves buildings and roads without solid foundation resulting in collapse slowing Arctic change and Restore building resilience is crucial for the people in Arctic and this new report gives of several new tools and These tools increase our knowledge for what happens in the ecosystems in our in and in our societies when temperature rises Resilience as I try to understand it is the ability of the system to bounce back and thrive during and after disturbances and shock and These reports points out what we can do within our society to strengthen our ability to act and to minimize the negative effect of climate change and And the case cut studies covers all the Arctic from Kiruna to Nuva Nuva vote Finally, I would like to say something on the great treasures of the Arctic the environment Protecting the marine environment of a high very high protective priority for me To achieve this we must develop better political mechanism and The ability to establish marine protected areas in areas beyond in a natural you resist your diskin is very important next step and there are ongoing negotiations and and an Implement an agreement with the overall aim of protecting and preserving marine biodiversity in areas beyond the states you risk your this theory This is a crucial process Sweden have also actively engaged in the EU as initiative of a task for on force on marine corporation The goal here is to elaborate suggestions for enhanced marine regional cooperation within the Arctic Council And it is important that this task force delivers a clear and strong recommendation to the foreign ministers in May on How the cooperation could be strengthened? Because today The Arctic Council and the cooperation between the states in this region is more important than ever and Now finally, I would like to extend my sincerest gratitude to everyone who has worked and been involved with the work of this report and I would like especially to say thanks the US Department of Interior for their collaboration Thank you Thank you so much for that Karolina. We we actually feel already after this presentation that it is it will be in good hands So that's good if we will take this forward. How many people have been in the Arctic here if I ask that question? That's quite a few that's good How many didn't know that they were in the Arctic when they were north of the polar circle if they've been the cure now Okay, you see you have been in the Arctic. We are saying this and that's because it's a bit of a problem in Sweden I think part in the US as well that we don't associate ourselves always as an Arctic country But we do have important areas clearly also in the Arctic in our own country And if you have been there, you know that you get a sense of connection My first field trip as a young researcher was to Franz Josef Land in what was then Soviet Arctic And it was very obvious environmental challenges there. I can say you didn't talk so much about climate change than in 1991 Interestingly love were other things on the agenda someone who can actually really pinpoint and and talk about the urgency of what is going on in the Arctic and connect it in a elegant way with Other global changes and also connecting Arctic with the rest of the world is of course professor Johan Rockström Executive director of the Stockholm resilience center Johan Rockström together with Joel Clement Maybe you can stand up both of you have been the two co-chairs. So you recognize each other here So that's good to know because Johan is a few people know him in Sweden And Joel may be not so famous in Sweden yet So if you during the coffee break would like to speak to the co-chairs Johan is one of them Joel is the other one, but Johan the floor is now yours for the urgency of the Arctic, please And warm applause Thank you so much You want to let me just start on behalf of Joel and myself as co-chairs of the Arctic resilience assessment to congratulate us all for this phenomenal achievement and thanks Karleen and the Swedish government for the support and the US government for this really important science based assessment of What resilience fundamentally is about just as Karina says the capacity of us as societies Relying entirely on the Arctic Biome and the ecological capacities to deal with surprise stress and shocks and avoid crossing tipping points and continue to develop in a positive way and as Johan pointed out There's an enormous urgency in recognizing that building resilience and particularly the key conclusion in the Arctic resilience assessment that working with social and ecological integration as a tool to build resilient communities is the fundamental pathway to have a possibility of a manageable and hopefully thriving future on Planet Earth and that is one of the key findings in this report In fact that the Arctic as a social ecological system with its four million inhabitants are an integrated part of the well-being of the world as a whole that we are Interdependent of a functioning Arctic and at the same time the Arctic is a harbinger a victim of the rapid Abrupt changes we're seeing in the world and this report was presented by many of the colleagues in the Arctic resilience Assessment work to Barack Obama at the White House Arctic Science Ministerial just a month back Reminding us that an average global warming of two degrees Celsius, which is not a goal But the planetary limits set up in the Paris Agreement actually translates to a five-degree Celsius average warming in the Arctic and Anyone even climate skeptics I would argue agree that five degrees approaches a point of very very Shock-related livelihood conditions and now we're seeing just as you on points out a situation where we are actually having an abrupt unprecedented unpredictable from science Shock warming of degrees at 20 degrees Celsius warming in the Arctic which actually is something that today Must be a reminder for us that resilience is Very likely the only chance we have if we're going to stand an opportunity a Providing Arctic communities with an ability to deal with the surprising Shocking and very stressful changes. We're seeing in this large biome on planet Earth as we speak Now this is nothing that is isolated only for the Arctic as we all know We're starting to see the same kind of patterns and the other side of planet Earth in Antarctica I put this up because in our interim report that we released two years back One of the key findings is actually that we should not see the Arctic communities From the saw me reindeer herders to the in wheat fishing communities in Canada as only victims of global environmental change Now here we have a source of resilience here We have indigenous knowledge of an Extraordinary history and value. I mean, it's very difficult to find communities that have been living for millennia Under more stressful and challenging conditions than our communities and citizens in the Arctic And that we have so much to learn in terms of how you build social ecological resilience from our Arctic Citizen fellowships So this is something that has been incredibly valuable in the Arctic resilience assessment to have Indigenous community representatives throughout this work now What we're seeing in the Arctic right now is a complex dynamics of multiple interacting factors And that's why it's such a privilege to have a map as well as a core Integrated project partner in the work we're doing in the Arctic assessment. It's just one reminder of that that As far as science is today Despite the complexity we cannot explain a 20 degrees Celsius shock in the Arctic as we speak unless we factor in Average anthropogenic global warming of temperature rise in the atmosphere unless we factor in the 95% absorption of heat in the world's oceans, which has led to surface waters Being extraordinary warm and affecting the Arctic from below the extraordinary thin ice Levels in the Arctic as we speak which has then reinforced the fact that the jet stream is in a very wavy condition All interacting which may be explaining the fact that we are today at this very vulnerable state You may have seen during the IECN World Congress that some scientists translated just as a back of the envelope exercise That the 95% of heat that earth has in its resilient state Absorbed from our energy imbalance caused by emission of gas is that if you would release all of that in the atmosphere If you would allow the heat which has been you know hidden under the carpet from our industrial development It would translate to 36 degrees warming in the atmosphere Now that is a shockwave to say the least But it's also a bit of a reminder that 20 degrees Celsius in the Arctic which may seem as a total almost utopian Disasters level is actually in line with something can happen given the dynamics. We're talking about You may have seen in the Arctic resilience analysis that what we're trying to do is to understand the developments and the driving forces Occurring in the Arctic and how that combines with what we call regime shifts when systems from Lakes to wetlands to ice sheets have multiple stable states separated by thresholds and that negative feedbacks It's a very pedagogical word from science to call it negative These are actually the feedbacks we love the dampening feedbacks that keeps a system stable Once we lose these negative feedbacks such as for example the ability of ice to reflect back heat to space a negative cooling feedback When those shift over and you get a net positive feedback a self-reinforcer, that's when you cross a threshold that's what we call a regime shift and they occur in social and ecological systems now What we have on this graph is The last 20,000 years when we've exited the last ice age you see the average temperature on earth being at minus three degrees Celsius We enter the hollow scene this extraordinary stable phase from roughly 12,000 years back The phase when we've developed civilizations on earth and then we see the pathway We've taken since industrial revolution and you see the IPCC RCP tracks where as you know the business as usual path we're following is a four degree Celsius path by the end of 17th century then we lay on this the Paris Decision the legally binding aim to stay as far under two degrees as possible a reminder This is outside of the hollow scene maximum range the hollow scene is a plus minus one degree Celsius maximum variability so it's already Inevitably putting us in an adaptation and challenging, you know dealing with stress resilience future But then the key is to load up top of that the risk of regime shifts And what you see here is in that left box the Paris agreement tipping points that we must now consider seriously having to face The the width of these columns here is the scientific uncertainty range and what you see is for example that the world's coral reefs lie Scientifically as far as we know today within Paris meaning to put it simple even if we deliver Paris We are very likely to lose the world's coral reefs But the drama here is on the Alpine glaciers the Arctic summer seas and Greenland which all lie within Paris So despite uncertainty ranges We see scientific evidence that we cannot exclude regime shifts in these systems And what these regime shifts mean is that you have bifurcation points very early that we can actually press biophysical on buttons very early and That we then inevitably change feedbacks which would then put us into a situation where we commit ourselves Inevitably for example in the case of Greenland to see seven meter sea level rise not tomorrow morning But over the next centuries and this is why it's so important to have precaution in our investments and developments in not least the Arctic and that the Arctic is a Harbinger and the regulator of the planetary scale resilience That is why we place in the Arctic resilience assessment this Integrated and interdependent positioning of the Arctic as a social ecological biome in the context of global sustainability If I make her Lena say that your colleague mother in Anderson for example our Swedish finance minister should be in my mind Equally preoccupied by jobs in GDP in Sweden as by the stability of the Arctic because it's all Into woven in the economic and social stability of any nation on planet earth We can no longer separate ourselves from either the Arctic nor Antarctica nor the Amazon rainforest or the Baltic sea for that matter And that is the key finding also in the fundamentals of this assessment now resilience is the understanding that things are you know per definition Filled by non-linearity surprise and shocks and that it is a question of trying to stay within a desired Equilibrium and continue to develop now we define resilience in three different categories or three different Features that we consider when taking this fundamental Starting point of resilience being the ability to deal with shocks and stress and continue to develop and they include the following three The first one is the classical fundamental one. How much stress and and let's say Pressures can you take without moving out of your current state? The second one is How well are we set to adapt within a state where we're in so how much? Abuse or stress can we take without crossing a tipping point? And we've put so much effort in the adaptation sphere and that is important But it is really recognizing that this is not about you know If we are pushed too far away and need to take the final dimension of resilience, which is Transforming in a situation of crisis so resilience has these three features the ability to avoid change and take Stress and stay in a desired state the ability to adapt when things are swinging within An equilibrium and finally if things go wrong What's our ability to find new pathways of livelihoods and development and this is important to recognize that therefore? It is a tool to deal with a very no changing conditions that we're seeing in the Arctic We have done a mapping fundamentally in its core definition, which is how do we avoid tipping points? How do we avoid abrupt changes that go beyond what we can manage and I'll jump this and this is something that We find a very high relevance of doing in the Arctic obviously We all feel that in this room because the Arctic is The place on earth where we see the most rapid abrupt changes occurring the two degrees Celsius warming on planet earth Meaning five in the Arctic is a very strong Representative of this in the Arctic resilience assessment that we've done we've therefore tried as best as we can to map What are the the risks of regime shifts in the Arctic? and that has been Done not only on climate change, but also on ecosystem change on marine systems on fisheries on ecosystems across the entire Baltic across the entire Arctic Circumpolar region and we've done that through a number of case studies And it's quite interesting to to recognize today that we're sitting on a knowledge base Which is circumpolar where we're even able and you won't see the colors here But we're able to make a first assessment of where we see Ecosystems and also communities that are able to maintain resilience They're even able to increase resilience in situations of rapid change But also systems that are losing resilience So we're trying the first attempt to use a resilience assessment methodology to kind of rank social economic situations across the Arctic which can be a tool for development among the Arctic nations one way that this translates to which is A way of using this is that we're attempting to then list for the different Arctic nations across all the different regime shifts that we're mapping from the risk of green and ice sheet collapse to kelp transitions to Tundra shifts from borough forests to desertified states What nations are most subject subject to regime shift risks? And what you see here is for example that canada russia and parts of the u.s Seems to be The the the arctic nations subject to the largest let's say set of Diverse regime shift risks. This is one way of trying to integrate arctic council knowledge Into systems understanding of where are the different priority areas for development So this means that we can actually and that's one of the key findings here that resilience is a useful framework to be able to develop and build societal Communital development in in the arctic region Now just to give you a few examples of one of the few other case studies This is an example of where resilience is actually surprisingly maintained Among the russian reindeer herders in the amal region This is an area subject to gas exploration subject to climate change subject to massive challenges But the findings here is that indigenous knowledge is maintained They're not so affected by external organizations And that there is a very strong indigenous capacity to handle the changing conditions at least so far On the other hand, we have the other contrast Which is the examples of cod fisheries collapse and herring fisheries collapse in greenland and island Where investments in quite monocultural industrial fishing industry has led to very important social disruptions Because of collapse in the fisheries related probably to warming in the waters, which has shifted livelihood sources But not had let's say the socio-ecological investments made to keep pace with that change And then finally an example, which is quite interesting, which is the Which you probably run across the the Cape Dorset in Wheat in Canada showing the ability of indigenous communities shifting over and diversifying livelihood conditions in this case to be really internationally renowned for arts, which is of course not a solution for all communities across the Arctic But it's an interesting way of showing the red thread which we find in biophysical ecological research That diversity is a way of building resilience So fundamentally resilience and transformation capacities are key to understand and navigate change across scales in the Arctic in the Arctic assessment, we've also Try to understand how does the Arctic and and communities Arctic link across scales in The world of change and in the planet of change and obviously the Arctic is fundamentally as you see in the red arrows here predominantly A victim of of driving change that there are massive pressures Socially and ecologically occurring across the Arctic and that this also needs to be understood in its complexity in the continued work We recommend for the Arctic Council So resilience thinking offers a framework also for navigating the cross-scale dynamics in in a rapidly changing World and that this is a key finding also in how we can think of learning from the Arctic but also seeing the Arctic as a priority for Delivering for example on the sustainable development goals and that we believe that there is no such thing as a as an Arctic Resilient future unless investments are made both in the Arctic Socially and ecologically well at the same time delivering on the sustainable development goals and that we need to frame these in in a slightly more planetary adapted way where we have four non-negotiable sustainable development goals from an Arctic perspective the fresh water oceans Biodiverse and the climate goal the climate goal in particular within which we could hope for socially and economically Delivery on the sustainable development goals, but that the Arctic is is a strong signal And that the communities in the Arctic are strong signals that there is no such thing as a future for the communities in the Arctic Unless we actually take the entire sustainable development goals agenda Very very seriously and particularly transitioning also fuel-free world economy where Sweden is Trying to show its leadership and be one of the first nations in the world. Thank you Just take one question for Johan Because you've been working on you've been part of working on this report for the last five years And of course the resilience thinking was behind the whole idea And I know when we started off the discussions with the ministry for the environment that we wanted to launch this You you really highlighted what you also said here trying to apply the resilience Thinking perspective on a region such as the Arctic Do you think we I mean the report has it managed to really demonstrate the strength of using the resilience framework thinking approach to describe and also analyze A region and the changes there such as the Arctic. Do you think we have been successful in that? In that regard Yeah, this is a question that should be shared with And they will have a chance but I want to hear you because you're the coach you're the coach All my great colleagues and in the steering committee for the Arctic resilience assessment I think Martin Sommerkorn here as well Gary Peterson. Now Yes and no to be honest and I'll be very very personally here to say that We have tested now for the first time at the large biome scale applying an integrated resilience methodology and framework To be able to understand the challenges facing communities on the ground and to look at solutions for the future And we have really come a long way in in developing. Let's say the scaffolding for this But to be honest It there's still much work remaining of how to apply this in full across such a large region I mean, we're still at the case study level We're still understanding that this is so complex and every local condition is very very specific And that there's so many parameters that that integrate across scales more over So I think this is the best resilience assessment ever done on planet earth But it's still a first step towards something that the world needs much more So the world needs to learn from us as well Great. Thanks a lot Johan Okay, we are going to let's see now if I can try to be a technician at the same way Normally that doesn't work at all. I barely know how the how this works But anyway We'll move forward. We're going to have a panel now and but before I start that panel fredi khanes We did actually acknowledge your important role when we started this whole process Many many years back, but you were not here then because you were probably doing something very important fredi is now working at the ministry for Foreign affairs with with our minister there on climate change. So I'm sure it was very important But anyway, what I realized I didn't do I just mentioned the names But we didn't give them an applaud at that point these four names chanette Frerick andres and malian. I think let's do that. That's a you know Applause is actually a way of also keeping awake. So it's a way of you know, moving I just wanted to mention also. I know we have a couple of younger people here students from laiola university. Can you raise your hands? From chicago great and also I think potentially also a few pupils students from nor a real Over there I I want to highlight these two groups because you know as you want to say this is the first step We have taken the question is though if we fail to act on this These are the guys who will have to take over and deal with whatever challenges will leave behind So it's very important to have you here Um, but it's also very serious because what you're hearing here is actually your future So You know put really hard questions to the panel we're going to have now start to think about them Uh, in particular the policy panel because scientists they all you know, we we just try to be nice and you know Give you the challenges, but in the in the end we have this policy panel And you know, what really should we try to get out of the policy discussion moving forward? Scientific panel my favorite Can I get the panelist up? You should know that you are on the panel. So please give them an applause. They feel welcome So we have uh From left. We have marcus carson. Uh, who is a senior research fellow at stock on environment institute Uh, we have sarah cornell who is a research coordinator at the stock on resilience center We have gary peterson who is the head of sustainability at stock on resilience center And we have anika neilstone who is also a senior research fellow at the stock on environment institute These are representatives of a much broader group of people who really have contributed To the report, but you have been instrumental in this and I should say being sort of behind the stage It has not been an easy process Not even for the scientists who normally always are good friends and never have any division as you know Um, this has really been natural and social science coming together. This is one of the beauties of resilience I think, you know, you really really really need to get different perspectives together In order to deliver something like this and that should be painful It should be painful because if it's if it isn't painful We are not stretching the boundaries. We are not pushing things forward We are not testing our ideas and challenging our thoughts and you've done that for five years Marcus that's the same period more or less as as obama and the same hair ending up You know, so, you know, obama getting gray from you know, being a president of the u.s And marcus being gray after leading the arctic resilience work Anyway, marcus We have instructions to the panelists. They know they have approximately seven speaking minutes each And marcus have divided up up to begin and to end and then I'm going to invite questions from you guys I'm not going to ask questions myself. I have all the chance in the world to ask questions these guys I might want to ask one question. Then it's up to you. Okay marcus Start And speak close to the microphone because it's a bit. Yeah Is it on by the way? Oh Come on scientists Technologically, uh, now we have it, right? Should I start over again? It is such a pleasure a little bit of a relief To be launching this report at the end of a five-year process And part of the reason is you one has already alluded to and trying to hijack my thunder here Is the bridging process that it's not just a matter of bridging these great distances In the arctic but also bridging between the different disciplinary training of the the scientific disciplines between different systems of knowledge And also between science and policy and ultimately we hope practice To have the kind of impact that we hope that this report will have So it's been a really challenging project in in good ways. It's really forced us to think it's forced us to negotiate And I don't think it's possible to overemphasize How this sort of interdisciplinary work not only between the sciences, but but also between science and policy Really requires a lot of time and energy and and negotiation to make sure that we're talking about the right About the same things and any of you who are married and have been in relationships Know that this this process of negotiating terms is a challenging one Uh, and that's only with two people. So consider Consider the the challenges of diversity If we can uh move to the next Do I get this? Oh, this is this is perfect There's a reason for for picking this particular slide Uh that I'll I'll describe normally the images we see of the arctic are these these iconic Shots of huge expanses of snow snow covered mountains icebergs Sea ice In this guy we're guys like these But what this image Really highlights is the is the core concept that that this report is built around and it's this sense of humans in nature That we are utterly dependent On the ecosystems that provide our sustenance provide our life support Um, and at the same time where whereas in this particular case You could say that they're very dependent and there are not enough people there to Substantially impact the their surroundings But at a planetary level the whole discussion about the Anthropocene Means that there are now enough of us with our activities magnified sufficiently that we are a force in the opposite direction And what that means ultimately is that Is this interaction between social and ecological systems or more accurately parts of the same system Needs much much more attention And that is part of part of what the report has been focused on I want to take just a quick Moment to tour through a little bit of the history of this Project, but I will make it fast Yuan's already mentioned it was a Swedish initiative During a chairmanship that lasted from 2011 to 2013 and unlike many initiatives due to some quirks We didn't have a co-chair in that As we moved into the second phase and watched the United States begin to prepare for its own chairmanship We could see a couple of things that were very important. One was that resilience would have a central role in that chairmanship and the second I think that's more subtle but equally important is that the values underlying the chairmanship that the u.s Was planning were very consistent with the values that guide sweden in its engagement in the arctic council So that made for a perfect fit and we're very happy to say after a number of discussions Negotiations and some wondering whether it would actually happen We sealed an agreement on a co-chairmanship and that has really carried us To emphasize more the policy and ultimately the practice side that's been very will be ultimately very important with this I also want to acknowledge people who Yuan didn't already name And there are several of you here who've contributed to To the chapters or contributed in other ways, and I wonder if you could just take a moment and stand I see a few stand up come on Martin Annika and There are a number of I think there are a few being shy here But these are people who contributed to the chapters and to the thinking behind this And I would like to give a brief applaud to you guys And the rest of you have already is this This report really represents the work of people spread across the arctic and expertise that goes far beyond what's what's standing up here let me Wrap up here pointing to this social ecological systems model and what's so important about this In a lot of instances science really homes in on one of these Little phrases in here and seeks to understand it But without fully grasping the interconnections between it And I think the most important thing in the in the framing this resilience social ecological systems framing with the report Is that we capture we really seek to capture the connections between these And in looking at the connections We also identify the kinds of feedbacks that Yuan has referred to the kinds of feedbacks that keep things stable But also the the feedbacks that we should be worried about that that tend to accelerate changes that will be very disruptive And those are the kinds of feedbacks to lead to what's often referred to non-linear change But it's the the tipping points and cliffs that we talk about Resilience Is defined in lots of ways these days. It's exploded in its usage in just the last few years And we actually apply some different meanings of resilience But one of the things that's consistent throughout the report is we really highlight the the importance of agency Of communities capacity to come together make decisions and chart their way forward In a very uncertain world and to do that with some effectiveness using the knowledge that's available And in each of the presentations, you'll hear from my colleagues You'll you'll hear those elements reflected. So I'd like to pass pass this along to sarah We'll take it up next. Thank you. Thank you I want to go that way, don't I? Here we are technology. Some of us really really should belong in a previous century Um, we're here today and we're really focused on the arctic Um, but perhaps the most important message that I want to emphasize. This is really rather intimidating Can I stand on tip toes or something? Um, the most important message that I want to emphasize is That the Arctic as a social ecological system looks really very different when you look at it from different perspectives We can see the patterns and the dynamics of local systems pretty well when we're in them As as the report outlines a lot in several of the case studies um And obviously we can We're rather concerned about some of those systems right now in terms of the political interactions and dynamics that we see around the world but the A system at one level will affect and influence what is possible at the other levels in the scale too So the challenge that we face is trying to understand the arctic From these multiple scales at the same time because we can only understand what happens at one level when we also understand the connections through to the others from a I'm really not very good at this. Okay from a resilience perspective are um Well one of the really interesting things about the connections across scales is that very often social activities are what link ecosystem processes across scales and Our biophysical ecosystem processes become the important links across the social systems. And so again We have to understand the dynamics of both the social and the ecological systems as linked systems Um, this picture you sort of seen a little bit of it. Um, Johan showed earlier as well This connectivity of social and ecological across scales is both extremely well understood And extremely poorly understood Um We we've mentioned the polar amplification of global warming for instance We know about long range trans boundary pollution and we mentioned black Black carbon and soot transport We know about ecological range shifts and one of the most amazing things is a somebody fairly new to arctic science Was to realize just how much of our living nature Uses the arctic as part of migratory processes or um well It is home to an immensely Um rich and diverse biodiversity that underpins the diversity of all the rest of life on earth So we have an understanding of these social ecological and physics physical dynamics And I've sort of highlighted their three areas where these dynamics and these connections really matter But where we also see disconnects because we look at things in their component parts One is where we already know that the expansion of activity in the arctic of social economic activity in the arctic has knock on effects everywhere else Not everywhere else, but potentially everywhere else We know that arctic ecological protection is now a global concern as well And it's become really clear In repeated studies of the arctic council and other biodiversity studies that are monitoring of ecosystem change is not adequate To understand the dynamics of change in the arctic We also know and we've heard a lot about it already this afternoon arctic change triggers worldwide impacts climatic impacts and obviously the consequences of climate on all of our other systems The really exciting thing in some ways is that arctic actors have quite a lot of power to mitigate those risks And so again when we look at the whole connectedness and the cross-scale behavior We can start to see points of intervention that we might not see if we only look at one level at a community or one national interest or one particular context Click and wear again My role in this was really to look through what has already been done in the arctic council working groups and so if there's any I think maybe there's only A dozen people in the world who have read every single one of the arctic council working group reports And it has been an actually an immense pleasure They are really really valuable information resources They have built knowledge communities and they As you can as you read them progressing through time since the arctic council was first formed You can really start to see emerging best practice in a lot of areas in transdisciplinary work in this Painful dialogue of learning and unlearning so that we build new language We are starting to see a real emphasis on diversity and inclusion And I would like to think that this arctic resilience report starts to really make that the new normal for arctic council assessments They need these new approaches for bringing knowledge together need to be nurtured and they need to be built up One of the challenges is every time you make a structure to enable knowledge to be brought together You create a new interface that needs also to be nurtured And this takes me to my last point that when you've got communities that are busy looking into these issues They can't see the issues expressed in another one and we see this a lot I mean, I think the big priority now is in the bringing out of the new arctic economic forums And there are many of them emerging at the moment that also need to read what's in the outputs of the biodiversity reports, for instance So When we've got all these different interests and different communities working together We really must bear in mind that some are more powerful and some are more influential than others And that the choices that are made in some area will have consequences somewhere else And of course, we've already heard that sometimes we will find that conflicts are possible We know about voices and networks and perspectives having these different influences We know that we can't negotiate with environmental processes But we can negotiate with a social process that determine those environmental processes So we have shared opportunities and those exist even though we have different worldviews And again, one of the exciting things about being involved in the resilience report so far has been just to see Some really very new approaches to Dialogue that brings together business government communities whatever scale those communities work at And of course having science involved in that process too Sorry Over to you gary the next presentation All right So as yohan already mentioned, there are a wide variety of regime shifts that have the potential to occur in the arctic And uh, let's see So so these aren't my slides Okay, so sorry. These aren't the slides I gave to people, but uh, I can just make up something so, uh There are a wide variety of regime shifts that occur in the arctic and many of these are Special to the arctic that involve ice and snow That that the transition between frozen and melted water causes uniquely arctic processes But many of these other types of arctic tipping points are shared by other places around the world like say coastal eutrophication and so Uh, we at the src have done a lot of work on Trying to identify and compare these regime shifts and see how they connect together in the arctic So So to give what are regime shifts? Well regime shifts are they're popularly called tipping point But the point is these changes are persistent. Is there a difficult or often impossible to reverse? surprising And that they're often even theoretically they're in practice difficult to predict But people shown theoretically they can be impossible to predict due to the complexity and chaos of nature And thirdly that they have substantial impact on people and societies one one example is where I talked about is this loss of arctic sea ice and uh To just give an example of how we've been thinking about them You can think that there's various drivers of change in arctic sea ice that can cause A shift from summer sea ice to open water But this can then have an effect upon other processes. So here you have changing climate regulation Time it change you also get acidification But the effect of the loss of arctic of greenland ice sheet can affect sea level And marine and terrestrial ecosystems by having the flow of nutrients into those systems Similarly with the loss of sea ice you you lose a substrate for biological productivity And you also lose a mechanism which people and animals in the nature use to move around and connect each other together So by losing sea ice you fragment the arctic socially and ecological By looking across all these things what this picture is showing is that Many different processes at local regional and international scales are driving these regime shifts in the arctic Many of these regime shifts share these drivers And these affect many many different of the benefits that people get from nature these ecosystem services And also the basic way the earth system operates And so two points that that aren't really clear here But but to point out is that climate change is a dominating driver that affects almost everything And that many cultural things are affected by these regime shifts This isn't just the removal of ice affects some caribou This affects the variability of people to live and who they are in this in this landscape In really quite profound ways because they don't just change the species It changes the very shape of the landscape and how you can move around in it And then finally as as as Johann said These these events can cascade out from the arctic and they can do this in two ways one they can just Change the climate elsewhere, but they can also trigger cascading change in other systems All these other tipping points around the world of of sea grass and coral reefs Can be affected by this climate turbulence producing more surprising change And despite knowing a bunch about the arctic and being pretty up to date on arctic climate change models I was actually a bit surprised reviewing this of how much uncertainty there is and what's not included in climate change models Climate change is pretty models are pretty weak on the arctic And they're not very good at dealing with changes in vegetation, especially how these the vegetation affects loads of moisture A lot of these regime shifts are going to change these processes and produce Surprising consequences for for climate change, so we can't see what those are But I think we can very firmly say that compared to Few years ago, we think that climate change will be much more surprising in the northern hemispheres for over years and decades Sorry that the the other thing we did is looking at not just the ecological resilience, but the social ecological resilience And as Johann said The the arctic is really a huge example of people's ability to adapt to transform and be resilient in very very harsh conditions And we looked at what seemed to explain patterns. We saw people had identified resilience transformation in the loss of resilience And uh, I wish I had my slides here to show you What we really found was that self-organization was a key Factor explaining the ability of people to maintain or transform and in particular It's the loss of self-organization that was consistent across all the cases of loss of resilience And so why have these people lost this ability to self-organize? Well, it's basically because of the arctic nation countries who colonize the arctic And remove the ability of people to organize themselves So I think this is one of the messages. I think we would have from there There's many process which you can use to build resilience But one of the things you arctic nations could do is stop doing the things that are destroying people's resilience and there's a lot of potential to learn about what is uh Building transformation and building these social ecological capacities to cope and adapt and respond to change That that can be done further because this is something where the fragmentation in these silos that sarah talked about Blocks this integrated social ecological understanding at the big level Our case studies are all based on the few places where there's been long-term social ecological research. So thanks very much Thanks, thanks a lot gary and also thank you for being adaptive. Yeah, I just made up that talk Yeah, exactly strong strong adaptive capacity Story about that But it was excellent really nice, uh, anika needless on please Speak very close to the microphone because the sound is not very close to the mic. Thank you work Well, I'm not going to move into the social and political sphere because the chapters have been responsible for really about How do we shape change? Deliberately shape change in society and they're about Governance when I started working on this five and a half years ago the question was what is resilience? How do I explain resilience? How do I translate it this time around? Is it what's governance? How do I deal with it? How do I translate it? And I think we're still struggling with it So i'm going to spend a little time seeing how I view governance. Here's Here's a picture of a social ecological system and to me Governance is the kind of myriad of places where we negotiate our relationship both with each other And with our environment around us. That's where we negotiate what we value in our environment But we also negotiate what behaviors are acceptable and which behaviors we want to promote so governance is kind of a pivot point A creating our relationship with the environment We had this really broad mandate, but we decided we wanted to focus on the circumpolar governance Otherwise we could be lost in in a myriad of various governance mechanisms across the Arctic So we focused on the circumpolar and one of the things that's really clear is that The landscape with within which Arctic Council work is really dynamic and changing To the left here. I decided very deliberately to not take the polar projection image I took the more common global image because we have all these new actors in the Arctic who want to be part of defining What the goals of governance in the Arctic are We have the new observers in the Arctic Council But also many other actors that aren't formal observers at the same time We also see a movement towards more regional self-governance Governance often indigenous self-governance like the the Greenland Self-Garment Nunavut the Finnmark Act So there's a kind of a diversification and we also see now just the last year the regions The the subnational regions becoming active nor botting got its own Arctic strategy just recently So there's a movement that That that needs to be navigated And so what role should we then the Arctic Council have in this landscape? We've had the Arctic Council structure with the working groups from before we have seen this picture of the activities of the assessment report But now we have all these other things too We have the the global agreements that we have to relate to like the law of the seas the the u.m. Framework Convention on climate change and a bunch of other ones World trade organization NATO all kinds of organizations that are there and then all these new Arctic ones the Arctic Circle or Arctic Circus as some people call it It's not a formal organization. We have the Arctic Economic Council They all have different kinds of flavors But the Arctic Council needs to kind of find its Specific role in this space and that's not going to be easy But I think an awareness of that changing space is is is critical for the Arctic Council to be able to play a role in resilience and I went back to the previous report and one of the key findings there talks about That you have to be be responsive and flexible and I think that's also true for the Arctic Council and we try to ask ourselves what capacity then does the Arctic Council have to Take care of all these new things signals that are coming in this new landscape And we used a framework of learning where you can learn to become more effective at what you're already doing You can start Changing a little bit But you can also really reframe to think in a completely new manner So my question was has the Arctic Council been able to Anytime rethink to think in a really new manner given the new challenges coming in So we did three case studies. We looked at persistent organic pollutants We looked at climate change and we looked at extractive industries And I would say when it comes to persistent organic pollutants, the Arctic Council has been extremely successful Not only has it been able to feed scientific information directly into International agreement and continues to do so it has also which is not visible here created a new working group to take care of a pollution in the Arctic Cleaning up old sources of pollution Which was not at all part of the initial framing when the Arctic Council set out to do this work because then it was all Transboundary Climate change a little bit more mixed picture It was not it was excluded from the gen that was start with because that was supposed to be the global issue Then we got the Arctic climate impact assessment and for various reasons. It was difficult to follow up on Uh, eventually we got the sweep by the snow, water, ice and basically cryosphere assessment And now we have the ongoing adaptation actions for a changing Arctic, but it has not been easy What's interesting to see now the last year you get initiatives such as the the the the u.s Initiative Obama's initiative at the glacier conference, which was formerly not an Arctic Council activity Uh, so where does the Arctic Council going to do here? We heard about the suit stuff where the Arctic Council is doing stuff But that's really just a small part of the emissions that affect climate change in the Arctic So there's a challenge then we looked at extractive industries and there it's even more challenging. We have hydrocarbon We had a big assessment on on oil and gas and there we actually have as one result of that an agreement of of preventing oil pollution Which is signed there in at the Kiruna ministerial mining nada There is nothing For some issues the Arctic Council the circumpolar corporation has a natural fit for other ones It might be more a national interest or a national responsibility or a local responsibility I won't go into the detail of that but Putting that picture because this is what we need to strengthen these resources we need to secure And here's just a summary of the different chapters that you can read for yourself. Thank you Thanks. Thanks a lot. I think that was really for extraordinary presentations with or without the correct slides And but it was really great and I think it captured a lot that we have in the report Of course, it's a very comprehensive report. There are a lot of stuff in there Interesting and at least also pointing towards policy and and marcus I know you want to say a few words to sort of conclude this part Before I actually might the audience so keep it short because I would like really to get the audience to have a chance to Ask you questions here So I will keep this short But the big question is where do we take this? How do we bridge from science to policy to action? And there are a couple of messages. I think that come out of this with with this social ecological system resilience perspective One is that there are already A wide range of activities underway in the Arctic that build resilience In a variety of different ways. So we don't have to start with a blank drawing board We don't have to go back and ask designers to come up with something completely new and untested And what we do know is that these activities can be expanded in a variety of ways They can be multiplied so to do something roughly similar in many different places They can be scaled up so that you do it from a higher scale to to reach further And they can be pieced together so that they're The gaps that exist can be filled and we see a number of of Specific examples, but these speak to some of the more general categories We need to expand monitoring of social ecological systems And there is monitoring going on in the Arctic But this is an example of where the puzzle pieces come together some very Interesting and important work being done But we we need to link the systems so that we're monitoring both sides at the same time And it's especially difficult under current conditions to monitor social developments in the Arctic The second is there's a lot of work now going on not least within the working groups to bridge these knowledge gaps We know a lot about what sits within the silos, but we need to start we need to start much more systematically building between them or even For a while get rid of the silos and the important aspect of this This resilience approach is that it starts from a linked perspective And the third The point that Gary raised about self-organization or capacity for self-organization We also talk about this in terms of of governance in terms of uh fate control These people exercising their their capacity to steer themselves into the future And this is something that takes practice people are better at it when they do it a lot We also see some good examples of people engaged in planning for their local energy needs In addressing local challenges and problems and where they Engage in those things effectively it tends to reinforce that capacity So as we come to the final Product of this report where we're talking about a a synthesis that includes recommendations We'll be looking at those specific kinds of examples to recommend expansion of things that are that are currently effective Thank you. Great. Thanks a lot and This is as you mentioned now in the end A next step will be this synthesis For arctic leader or whatever we may call it in the end And of course, you know when you talk about bridging science and policy You're getting out in areas that we are common both organizations working quite a lot with But it it gets nervous as well. Just in terms of choosing worlds Words You you know you say should would could may consider can go on forever So we got to have an exciting process there How we will make sure that whatever we have been finding out in this report the conclusions from the report How can that be policy relevant? You could say and then that's how ipcc frame their recommendations. They are policy relevant By the way, we have a microphone there. We have a lot of people here interested in these issues You can now ask questions, but you have to have the microphone And this is these are questions them for the science panel So if they find questions to be difficult, they will defer them to the policy panel So of course in the other end of the room, uh, can you keep can you raise your hands when you have a question? I have a feeling where we have questions. Keep them short You can also make a short comment if you want to and introduce yourself. Hello I'm Olaf Lindon. I work with the international maritime organization. I wonder to what extent shipping has been part of this review I mean shipping tends to be out not under the radar of of normal sort of Processes or negotiations they sail by themselves and and Suddenly we have I mean the plants. I know the plants in the industry is for The Arctic route the the northwest and the northeast passage Very much so in in a few years. We may have hundreds of ships every wind every summer Sailing the northwest and the northeast passage Okay, it's a good question. Can can you cope by taking two or three comments and then is that okay? So keep keep track of this, please. There's one here in the middle and then one in the back So there are now a diagonal like that. So one two three My name is Sitlana Gross. I work for the Swedish energy agency and the question mostly to Annika Related to governance and the extractive industries A lot of Arctic countries have been putting a lot of hopes towards the oil extraction And Norway is still opening new fields in the Arctic and I know that Greenland has been Drilling for sort of prospecting for oil. Thankfully unsuccessfully But and as you said, there is a lot of different types of governance structures and governments around the Pull the circle You have Russia. You have Norway. You have Greenland. You have the US Canada different types Have you found any evidence? Did you have you found any evidence? of the relationship of sort of the governance structure and How willing they are to drill or not to drill? Thank you. Okay. Good It's easier to say stock really when you don't have oil. That's true In the middle and then in the back Yes, my name is Tomon. Don't look at wwf I wonder if you could elaborate how you managed to get a lower How you get the traditional knowledge into the report because there are 40 groups At least 40 groups of indigenous people living up here It's a very good point. Thank you. And then in the back we take the final one and then I'll let you come in Thank you. Gossy Schmischek Arctic Center University of Lapland. I have a question regarding Observing and monitoring that Marcus, I think you had in your last comment So I wanted to ask especially when it comes to like for monitoring. We actually usually need benchmarks So especially when it comes to monitoring of social systems and even more combined social ecological systems Where are we now or and how do you how do you assess the situation? Excellent. Thank you very much. So for very interesting questions There's partly linked I would say it's a lot about governance and how we have ensured also Indigenous people in this. Anika, you had also direct question to you and then I'll let the others come in So I will start with the oil and gas governance What the Arctic Council has done is I would say is the the oil pollution prevention agreement focusing on something where Where circumpolar cooperation is especially irrelevant But I think it also illustrates one of the dilemmas of the Arctic Council in that Areas in which there is very strong national interest such as as energy Resources and fisheries for that matter or or or hard security issues the Arctic Council tends to stay away from And and I don't think we can expect That the Arctic Council would be the body that that will Govern those kinds of resources because they're just simply too strong But look but it might look them for the areas where everyone benefits From the cooperation. That's my guess is where we will see and we might hear something different from the from the policy panel We have representatives of Countries that have some interest in in that When it comes to shipping We didn't look at it specifically here, but that the Arctic Council has of course done in in its Working group that's called pain protection of the Arctic marine environment and Arctic marine shipping assessment as Was a follow-up to the Arctic climate impact assessment and that actually has had is one of the areas where the Arctic Council Actually systematically follows up on its recommendations one of the only areas where it systematically follows up on its recommendations And one of them I think it's the the implementation of the polar code In the IMO so it's on the we didn't focus on it here, but it's certainly on the Arctic Council agenda Okay, so please Sarah I'll come in straight on that on the shipping thing too Shipping and the associated infrastructure features a little bit in some of the case studies that we talked about and obviously as one of the major drivers of of Physical change in the Arctic and also the sort of it's a feedback in its own right to a response to very rapidly changing drivers We had some really interesting dialogue processes where people involved in shipping spoke with us as well one was at a workshop in Washington DC in the in June last year and another was a round table discussion with Shipping people and IMO people and Engineering organizations as well at London International Shipping Week In the autumn last year and for me one of the really interesting things as the outcome of that meeting It's not fully documented. Although some of the input from that came into one of the chapters in the Arctic resilience report One of the outcomes of that shipping discussion is that they want to host a similar one at the international shipping week in Singapore next year So again, that's an indication of the real rapid expansion of the Arctic I want to pick up very briefly also on the observation and monitoring and I think that there's some very Again, I won't point if I'm very happy to point to the text boxes where we mentioned that We have sort of gathered some information on the initiatives that are that are taking place Really on networks of networks for observations. And again, how we build up a more consolidated picture One of the things we've highlighted too is some really interesting work trying to A circumpolar network of observations of cultural heritage as landscapes and ice scapes melt some of the the sort of long-term repositories of past Social systems are really highly at risk And so again, we're sort of looking at how we can make sure that we capture some of these lessons from history As well as contemporary observation as well So I'd be really happy to talk with that because excellent. Thank you Yes, Gary. Yeah, so just to mention about the indigenous knowledge So I think the case studies we did were one of the ways and that came in most in a very integrated way And so in terms of the terms of reference the time the funding of this report It wasn't a co-produced report. And I think this is something that's General challenge to go beyond Local collaboration to really including a digital knowledge and larger assessments. I work a lot on the ips Global process looking at biodiversity and ecosystem service, which also has a similar mandate. It's a big challenge So what we did is our case studies were selected to be diverse addressing a bunch of different issues around the Arctic, but they're all places where there's been long-term place-based research And so Depending where those are there are people who would be variously considered indigenous or aboriginal or not But they are all involved in some of that research is co-produced and during the the process of Of the art of chrysalis assessment. We certainly had indigenous representatives involved in the process as well as this normal for the arctic council But if I can even add there because I think it's an interesting point We started off very early with a large or a very very interesting workshop in kautokeino Which gave us a lot of insights into the work of the ar But but I also had a chance now towards the end to speak to to some of the representatives from the deans People they they clearly also said what you're saying gary I mean they did expect to be more involved And yet there is a question of resources to be honest from both sides there. So we cannot just expect involvement Free of charge if we say that I mean they are they they need resources to be able to be involved just like anyone else And I think sometimes we have an expectations that they should just contribute And so it's an important point to bring with us when we move forward to be honest. This is one of the learning lessons learned I think Marcus maybe one or two words also about monitoring of social systems and so on. I mean this came up Yeah, this is uh, this is especially interesting because there's been quite expansive work done to Determine what are the what are the most? Useful indicators of social well-being in the arctic And those have been anchored to readily available information one of the characteristics of the arctic is that Information is slow to get And it tends to be fairly sparse. So to keep a very clear sense Of well-being in the arctic is is a real challenge. There's an additional challenge And that is that in many instances Livelihoods are much more tightly coupled coupled with nature than than in many other places in the world And that means that the standard measurements that we use for for knowledge And in the case of the arctic social indicators work, the proxy is years of school completed or Economic well-being which the proxy used as household income Or fake control where the proxy used as legal rights, but in each of those cases, there's a huge Huge area that's not really measured and we're not very good at knowing how to measure it So where we talk about school knowledge, we measure the number of years of school There are also rights and rights of passage and and other ways to assess The the status of traditional knowledge or indigenous knowledge, but those haven't been very well developed And our argument is that these diverse the diversity and these kinds of knowledge actually helps to build resilience Is very important People who whether you're indigenous or not in the arctic There's quite a connection with nature and that people's Livelihoods are more closely coupled their hunting clubs in northern sweden where people put a lot of meat in the freezer And enjoy the contact with nature that doesn't show up in household income That's even more the case in many instances where where indigenous communities depend on On food that's that's hunted or gathered or fished from nature And there are ways to measure some of that but they're not nearly as recognized And then the same goes for this capacity for self-organization We can look at legal rights But to make use of those there has to be a capacity on the ground for people to To be able to work together and in some communities that's very very strong and a a key source of resilience We saw that in our case studies and in others. It's not and we can We can analyze what those factors are but we need to develop some new ways of gathering that information and certainly ways of Of assessing that and that'll be a challenge going forward. Okay, Annika. You had a very short before we take next set of questions Yeah, I think actually if one takes that bundle of resources that I talked about And what we ultimately would like to know is what that bundle of resources looks like but also have enough information To for policy makers to use that To judge their decisions. Okay, if we decide this and that will that decrease Or increase that bundle of resources that we have available So you have something to actually make sure we don't erode resilience that we actually strengthen it Excellent. Thank you very much. We have a couple of more questions. One two three. I've noticed so please Thank you. My name is Rene Söderman. I work as senior advisor for arctic cooperation at the ministry for affairs in Finland I know you are going to ask questions from us. I will be in the policy panel afterwards But I want to throw it back to you now Sustainable development and the UN sustainable development goals are often mentioned in the same context as resilience and We heard also about how Governance is diversified In in arctic issues. My question is quite quite simple with these UN sustainable goals We have all united behind them in the UN all the member countries Is it possible to address these resilience challenges? With Through the lens of the UN sustainable development goals and try to strengthen the resilience of the arctic through them Through the goals and through the targets That there are the UN sustainable goals They are 17 everybody of us know that already, but there are at least four goals which you mentioned resilience directly Thank you. Thank you very much We had one there and one there. Yes. So first Someone show there. Yes Thank you beyond all back swedish polar research secretariat a I think well question a question where your answers might be fed into the panel after Fika in very very concrete terms now Please be very concrete. What are your worries? The obstacles for the continued process. I really acknowledge that writing this and working with this has been a process that has delivered things And now you have a document and At the end of the day or when we leave here what what really worries you that will not happen or will happen Exactly. That's great That's very good. So actually this was it's well, you know We've been moderating together you and I too many times this was you know Was going to be one of my final questions and exactly you have a chance To feed into the policy panel based on your scientific insight. What really are the obstacles what you expect now? So that's really great. Thanks a lot. Yeah Please thank you. Martin Smokko and I work for wwf's arctic program. Okay I think I would like us to actually hone in on the Very special thing that this is Um, we are we are also in the discussion Honing in on very interesting topics Topics that are close to our heart while I think the unique thing of this Is that we have an an attempt To look at a region through a systems lens. I don't think that has been done before Taking a systems approach and looking what percolates from taking it is probably the Maximum thing that this report Can achieve And so I have a question to the four panelists actually um We have taken a resilience approach to work to operate this systems approach to arctic to the arctic My question is How has the systems approach itself Grown over the last five years. What did we know? To do we know today about taking a resilience approach? For a region that we didn't know five years ago. Thank you. Excellent. Thank you very much And we actually even we have received a question also from our web audience And they it's the classical questions question of why it is difficult to get even people to act on climate change one of the These that esp and stockness quite often talk about distance So the arctic tends to be distance still and we always we tend to show polar bears And they are far away for many of us So if we are going to convince countries outside of the arctic and the the question Mentioned for instance central europe the big countries in central europe and so on Many of them are observers, but still if we're going to convince them to care about the arctic and people there to Care about the arctic. What kind of messages can we send? That they can understand it directly not just, you know, we are interconnected, but Anyway, so we have the stg's. Is that a good framework? Can that bring us an opportunity as well? We have the key obstacles to move forward The question about the systems approach and distance and you have two minutes each daily life of a politician Two minutes each to give your perspective of that anika. You are all eager. You're an old journalist You know how to do it. I can start with the stg's actually in a project We're starting right now resource extraction and sustainable arctic communities I'm looking at how the stg's map on to the different aspects of adaptive and transformative capacity You will see that many of them are actually the same and I think it's quite interesting resilience is not a goal in and of itself It's human well-being That's the goal Resilience is a way to ensure human well-being So I think matching those is a work that needs to be done And I want to connect that to the question of worries and and hopes of what we want to do I think many of the issues that we need to take on now are politically controversial Some will be able will be able to work further into the political system But quite a bit of work also needs to be done as research independent of the political system Moving that knowledge base forward and there I think actually to answer martin That the work we have started now that some of the conceptual work especially and for me For me, I think placing governance in this broader context has become quite important So there are different kind of conceptual models I have now than I had when I started and hopefully in dialogues with all other colleagues I have many of them here from different Aspects of my research life. We can see how that can grow further Thank you very much and it's an interesting point in a way how much do you Compromise as a scientist in order to be able to communicate with policy makers because just you know, there are certain no-knows Sometime and we've been struggling with this in ARR, but I think we've been quite bold Not all the way maybe but still Sarah you want to Actually, Annika said almost exactly what I wanted to say about the sustainable development goals question um One thing that I'm slowly coming to realize is that 17 goals and 169 targets are all necessary But not sufficient and so I really liked the way that she emphasized the big goal And actually I always take us back to the The wonderful bruntland commission's definition about not just human well-being but harmony between humans and nature And that's very much a social ecological framing And I think absolutely that a resilience frame should be fully compatible with making sure that we maintain that and tick off All 169 targets and however many indicators there are as well I'm going to come to the worries question because it also feeds into all the rest as well My biggest worry is quite simply that people don't read So this phenomenal amount of thinking and working will sit there And I really encourage you to I mean it's wonderful. It's nicely illustrated. So start with the pictures Start with the big headings and the big print and get caught up in actually what is a really rich um, well argued well thought through um well Some of it is a real pleasure to read And the reason I know that people don't read is partly because the Arctic Council has regular statistics on downloads And I have downloaded every one of the Arctic Council reports So I know how many people have read them or at least downloaded them And the other thing I did just for fun one day was count up how many contributing authors there or lead authors There were there about 2,000 authors of the whole suite of Arctic roughly big handfuls reports of which only about a hundred across linkers um People who have read the reports of the other working group and that for me is I mean obviously we have to work with Our and so those are kind of little snippets of one of the worries that I have that we keep working with ignorance Even though there is knowledge um Which takes us a little bit to the lessons the lessons of systems in practice Um, I think the one thing that I know now that I knew in theory before But really know now is this importance of connections and the connections can be serendipitous um, and again the connections that happen in the world of ideas are vitally important And linked to that the sort of dynamic connectedness means that we aren't dealing with machines I really would want to emphasize that systems, especially social systems and ecological systems and the whole thing together They aren't tweakable machines in the way that we often talk about them And that in turn leads to the distance question One really interesting thing in the arctic council declarations if you read them one after the other Is that they all start with the sort of the arctic up there and out there And the latest ones are very much Incredibly interventionist, you know kind of countries know that the arctic is theirs now And you see that in the arctic strategies of the new member countries and the the new observer countries Sorry with countries like india arguing very well that they're the arctic belongs to them as well Because it affects their monsoons and obviously that sort of is a very new shift on geopolitical understandings too That's good. So actually that is that it's in a way a positive development talking about the questions from the web They start to see and understand the connection which makes it much closer You connect good gary So maybe just going I think I have two worries and one is that the world not stopping climate change. I think it's really the challenge is yohan mentioned that we need to eliminate carbon dioxide emissions and All these regime shifts are going to the risk of them are going to Keep increasing as long as we keep emitting ceo into the atmosphere And without stopping it and that it's a huge disproportionality. However If you look at this and you say like well, how much of this is from the arctic council Countries cumulative emissions are about a bit less than 50 percent But if you include these observer countries also china india who have this stake in the arctic Then it gets up to about 80 98 percent. It's the saying that you are Destroying what you care about Is a connection the other thing to mention is I think that I'm worried about is a lack of reconciliation with indigenous people in the arctic The population of indigenous people in the arctic is actually growing quite rapidly And there's lots of opportunities for the world To benefit from their knowledge and actually there's the diversity that their use of the world can add But this is something that is really Maybe not being done as much as it could be and this means lots of people have far worse lies in the world Is far worse than it needs to be So just to end with the sustainable development goals It's a shame that yohan sneaked out because yohan roxram and our colleagues have been doing a lot of stuff of trying to link Resilience and the sustainable development goals as these guys mentioned as well is that they're very consistent But I think it's really the issue also What sci people are doing is you really don't want to be trying to turn up One of these sustainability goals without thinking about them the others We need to take an integrated approach and that's also that human society Requires the biosphere and we need to transform from being Users of the biosphere and being less bad in how we treat the bowser to being stewards and looking after our home And the same way is like for the for the business people in the economics system That depends upon society as well as the biosphere We need to look after society rather than mine it or erode it and there's in our report there's lots of examples in the arctic of places that had Experienced the same kind of shocks was like in iceland two places both had fisheries claps But one of them which had more diversity and fishing fleet was able to quickly adapt and transform To to doing whale tourism because they still had small boats. They started taking people out on successful The other ones had a big investments in fish processing plants had all this locked in capital It was very hard to change what they were doing So you can see these examples and in a positive way too karuna in sweden is another example where by our metrics Karuna should be a case Based compared to other places that doesn't have resilience But because the swedish government has put in huge investment into karuna and really engaged also with the residents of karuna Which doesn't usually happen with indigenous people in say the us who are wanting to relocate It's been able to be resilient And so you can see these in our indexes these these kind of patterns and you can you can kind of see a bit more how you can Build resilience in the arctic rather than undermining it. So I think there's a lot of Hope that we can move forward to being more stewards of the arctic and the arctic can lead the way in that because as the very first Talk mentioned it's a bit somewhere that's experiencing earlier than everywhere else these extreme impacts But the people there are actually much more resilient and adaptive and have all this experience that we could use for other places If we work with them. So excellent. Thank you very much learning from from the region really and Marcus the final Two minutes. Yeah, actually if I could repeat what Gary just said, I would do that That's a classical example really really on mark But since I can't I'm gonna add a couple of other things one Sarah emphasize reading and how this This is really worth reading. But I want I want to emphasize that It's worth reading because of the work that many people have done But it's readable because of the work that our editors have done and they And you hear the laughter up here. So you get the point there There's some some serious intervention that's been done to make this accessible And we may not have achieved that a hundred percent, but I I can tell you that That Tom and Marian who are main editors in this process have made this into something that you all could actually engage in over the holidays and And feel like wow, that was that was pretty good. That was pretty okay. So There's a thank you that that needs not to be to be left behind On martin's point about a systems approach. I think this is a little bit of a worry because Like relationships Approach takes a lot of bridging that we don't know how to value or measure So we talk a lot about the need for social sciences and climate, you know understanding and About the need to bridge disciplinary boundaries But we still don't know very well how you do that and part of the way that you do that is by locking yourselves in a Room or a project together and working it out because you're committed to the same goal And martin and I've had a little bit of experience with that too, but it's You really get to some good places when you put in that energy But the system for for financing and for evaluating Doesn't really know how to how to give credit for that that kind of effort. That's a worry, but That we're pretty stubborn is I think encouraging And then let me end on this this point about how to make it relevant because Part of the reason that the title was why should Why does it matter is it really is an effort to make it relevant There's a saying that's I think is way overused that what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic So I wouldn't say it without saying that it's overused But what we send up there is coming back to us it may come in the in the form of changed monsoon or other kinds of weather patterns But but we know how connected this is and we'll begin to see more of the tangible results Or things that at least can would be expected So I think the warning bells that are being rung with changes that we're seeing now At least this most recent one with a 20 degree above normal or last Christmas when chicago was was actually colder than the Arctic those kinds of things will likely happen more frequently and they move us closer to the thresholds that gary Emphasized where we don't know where they are until they're behind us But that kind of relevance I think to to pay a little bit more attention Not only to what's happening there, but how it may be Feeding back and to what we can do Is again that gary points out that we can we can stop doing the stuff That's sending problems that way that are likely to be amplified and sent back to us And that's a really important place to start Great. Thank you very much Marcus. I know I'm a bit maybe biased and not completely You know objective here and not behaving very scientifically, but I Personally must say I think that the group of scientists and represented also by the four of you here You've done an extraordinary job. I really must say and I also appreciate Marcus very much that you Highlighted the fact that there are other competences also really helping to make to report what it is that are equally important To make the report readable for instance So really fantastic both Colleagues from the Stockholm resilience center what you have done and contributed and my own colleagues from the Stockholm environment institute A warm applaud really to you So we are in sweden, which means that we drink coffee and eat the smaller little things called buns And you can have one of them or an and towards the end if there are anyone left you can have two So after that there is the we will have the policy panel This will be introduced by our colleague Joel Clements from the department of interior in the us And he would also mention and present shortly something called the Arctic resilient action framework, which is actually You know a policy response really coming from this already quite exciting So I recommend you to be here. We will have the minister back. This is unique Carolina a minister staying for the entire seminar Ah And applaud by itself, you know But I should I should give you the secret we thought how do we get her to stay? Well, if we put her as the opening speaker and in the final panel she can't sneak out Isn't it i'm transparent always and after this later on we will also have some mingles. So stay on 10 past Three we will meet again Can you can hold it like this you hear now you hear it really well and in that case talk like this You hold up like this and talk And talk like this and then you will hear it very clearly And talk here Precisely Is it I'm talking very close like this One two three I have one two three four five six One two one two three four You hear it's a little worse You You go into it, but is it okay after all it's going well directly Because I almost have to start now a little bit later I thought that the interview should be much much much much shorter, however But how long is how long is it like one minute or no, I don't know what you do you take info Okay, everyone we will start again, please come in Please come in everyone It's great to see that almost almost everyone stays It's friday afternoon. We are aware of that, but it's already dark outside and nothing to do anyway Um, sorry for starting a bit late to be honest We were a bit overwhelmed actually which is also very positive that for the fact that we have strong media attention to this report Which is great We need to get the message out as marcus said very clearly a scientific report ending up on the shelf Is not very useful. We have to get the message out in society So we're gonna have a policy panel and I will not spend time really To introduce the panel too much in detail I will of course introduce you very shortly But Joel Clement if we could start with you if you could come up Because you you said you will help us. Yes Help us introduce here a little bit, you know bridging to the policy dimension, but also actually demonstrate that The us has tried already quite hard to take the next steps to see how this The whole resilience thinking can be integrated into the work of the art council. So a warm applaud to joel clements from the department of interior Thank you. Johan did mention that applause wakes everybody up. So I could really use that. Thank you very much And uh a good trip over here. I I'm delighted to be here. Thanks, Johan I'm particularly delighted not to be in washington dc right now So thanks for the break from that Um, I I bring greetings and congratulations to the team here from the department of interior In the u.s. The secretary secretary sally jule department interior secretary john carrey from the state department and his whole team Working on the u.s. Chairmanship of the art to council particularly dave balton and julie gorley our senior art official Everyone is just extremely impressed with this product and I'll talk a little bit more about that as we go along But I do want to jump in quickly and say I came to resilience in sort of an unusual way I was working for a private foundation back in 2004 And we wanted to get a better handle on the organizations that we were investing in back then So we invited a couple of the experts from the resilience alliance up in canada To come down and walk us through the adaptive cycle and talk about organizations and rigidity and creative deconstruction and that sort of thing so I had this in my past when sweden announced this initiative in nuke My ears perked up and volunteered to Represent the state department in some of the early meetings not knowing I'd end up co-chairing The project but but very pleased that it worked out this way This this collaboration has been really fantastic and it's already been described. What a great Group of people the authors marcus and his team the leadership at sei all that you have all done Delivering a world-class products. I'm very proud to be associated with so congratulations to you all And thanks for delivering this during the us chairmanship. That's very handy for us as well because who knows what we'll be able to announce next year so I also want to thank the you and your teams For staying engaged on the what next question Because this is something that I in particular and focused on as a as a policy director at doi We need to take this beyond science into into practice And were it not for the continued engagement of this team I wouldn't be standing up here talking about a collaborative framework for building resilience in the arctic which is Indeed what i'm here to do so kudos to this team for constructing the underpinning For the framework that i'm about to describe and many thanks to everybody for that So Why do we need an organizing framework for arctic resilience? This is this is something we talked a little bit about at the senior arctic official meeting In portland main a couple months ago Certainly 2015 was a big year a landmark year for advancing climate change issues and resilience We know the sendai framework for disaster risk reduction was signed by the un parties in march of 2015 And then in september of course the sustainable development goals and agenda 2030 That was signed and then of course the paris agreements So what a year that was Incidentally all of those agreements featured resilience language and resilience metrics so The the term and the use of resilience has really blossomed and 2015 was a big year for that But at the same time various different regions were working on their own resilience strategies Whether it was disaster risk or for other reasons the pacific islands parts of africa Europe these regional resilience strategies started to take shape But nothing for the arctic yet the the area warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet No strategies yet We're taking we're being developed and this was very evident to us as we were working on this report So while the world was finally learning about the arctic because of all the impacts up there the loss of sea ice The melting permafrost and so on Far less aware of what actors in the arctic were doing about those impacts And other than suffering, right? I mean we'd certainly hear about that whether it were 80 000 reindeer dying because of a frozen tundra or villages being washed away due to exposure and melting permafrost so With good reason the parties and folks started looking to the arctic council for more on that What are these actors doing and as you saw from sarah's slide? There are a lot of reports of the arctic council has delivered on a number of fronts As it relates to both climate change and related issues around sustainability So there's a lot happening the ara is certainly I think the most momentous in in in recent years But there's certainly a lot of work been done on biodiversity connectivity marine protection And climate change adaptation. So all these studies have been taking place But what's missing is a way to capture all these efforts in a collaborative framework That will build out a community of practice on resilience and identify Some of those shared priorities and those gaps that need to be addressed and then leverage one another's work So that's what I mean by a A collaborative framework to get the ball rolling the us chairmanship sponsor to workshop last march Prior to the arctic council meeting Brought in a lot of experts. It was facilitated by none other than yohan Doing a fantastic job as always we had voices there from all the various different arctic sectors And it sent a clear signal that indeed Such a framework for action would add quite a bit of value. So the the senior arctic officials of the arctic council said go ahead Get us a draft by september So that may seem like enough time march to september But this was over the summer It needed to be attractive to eight countries six working groups six permanent participant organizations Representing the indigenous people of the north and and numerous observer parties So we had our work cut out for us, but it doesn't get any better than that, right? I mean, that's that's what you want to do when you're doing international Agreements you want to get right into the meat of it But sure enough we had a calm cool and collected drafting committee Chared by the u.s. And then a review committee chaired by finland Thank you rinne and the sami council All of the aforementioned parties weighed in on the process and it was a fantastic back and forth a lot of shared learning A lot of feedback some challenges, but we think the framework reflects a lot of good thinking So this arctic resilience action framework And i'm not going to give you copies because it's not public yet And it won't be for a little while and that's just the way it goes, but this is a teaser We'll be delivering a final version to the senior arctic officials in march And then one hopes Will be signed and announced Around the time of the ministerial in may the conclusion of the u.s. Chairmanship the framework provides an outcome statement a goal a set of nine overarching principles for building resilience in the arctic That are largely derived from the work that took place within this group Building out this report here and and then four priority areas that include specific action areas So it's a true framework And while those principles provide key goalposts and these are things like empowering local communities Incorporating and drawing upon indigenous knowledge Considering multiple scales all the all the important things that we learned from this work here The heart of the document is that set of priority areas And if I had a slide this would be it The four priority areas I'm just going to read them the first one is the science piece right analyzing and understanding risk and resilience in the arctic That's kind of a no-brainer. We know we need to prioritize things there the second one building resilience and adaptation capacity Also very clear that we don't have the capacity in the north now to implement the resilience measures across the board Implementing resilience with policy planning and cooperation. That's the governance Priority area and then encouraging investment to reduce risk and build resilience And while the problems are growing budgets are shrinking in the public sector in particular. So we need to find Some interesting opportunities within the world of modern finance To get these investments into the arctic and incidentally I have a team of economists on my staff that are interested In partnering with another institution somewhere On unpacking some of these more modern instruments like green bonds resilience bonds and subsidized loans and things like that So if any of you are affiliated with organizations that want to partner on that We're all ears and we have a proposal out there. So That's something we really do need to unpack. So those are the four priority areas There are action areas within each Which you'll get to see when this thing comes out and success is defined in our outcome statement Which focuses on an increase in the ability of arctic states and arctic communities to understand and respond to risk in ways That support ecosystems and prosperous and sustainable communities. So that's the fundamental thing we're trying to accomplish here With that framework implementation, of course is the trick We it doesn't do much good if we're not tracking evaluating and adapting our shared efforts over time So we'll have mechanisms in place. We'll propose mechanisms To track various commitments From the parties of the arctic council some of these commitments We already know they're out there as part of these international agreements that I mentioned earlier So we need to track those. So for the arctic states, it's a little bit easier maybe although we can encourage stretch goals For other for the working groups of the arctic council and they may already be part of their work plans So we can we can collect that information from their work plans will again be encouraging through the senior arctic officials Hopefully the the working groups to take further steps And importantly We can't get too far without evaluating and updating this framework, right? We've established something that we think is important and and dynamic enough But there needs to be a way to take stock Of our progress and adjust the framework. So we proposed a biennial resilience forum We think that's an opportunity to share these best practices and take stock and the great news is that finland Thank you. Renee has committed to holding the first of the biennial resilience forums during their chairmanship of the arctic council Which begins in may so we're very excited about that We've got a great team that will fall right into that work as soon as this thing is Published it's our hope that these efforts of both tracking and then evaluating We'll generate a community of practice that'll help align the goals and metrics with those of other international agreements And identify specific targets and metrics for for measuring progress. So we think there's a lot of opportunity there So this is how we're mapping our way From the science of this report and others to implementing measures We think will improve the resilience of communities and and ecosystems in the north It's been a just a super experience working with a great group of folks All of whom understand that we need all of the tools and knowledge we can to overcome Very daunting challenges in the north. So Thanks again, Johan for including me in the events Many thanks to folks here for all that you've done a couple of other things I do want to thank the state department for all their support The u.s. Geological survey has provided some funding For the for the for this work here and on my staff sarab del raheem was certainly very helpful as well Many of you know her so thanks again. I look forward to discussing this more with folks. Thank you very much. Congratulations. Are you safe? We want that you go we want that you go that easy So can I ask the rest of the panel to come up and you can stand wherever you want as long as the minister stands in the middle That's good So we have a Panel that represents somewhat more the policy dimension and thank you joel for really giving us this you know heads up for the Framework coming In an intergovernmental set the setting. This is actually quite unique in terms of Rapid development going from a scientific assessment or report to actually seeing a clear policy response And I really would like to you know Highlights that you've been pretty bold here and you know courage to drive this forward So this is highly appreciated on the panel now. We have our minister for environmental again carolina school That's great to have you back here. We have a large Ronos that who is the swedish ambassador for climate change You know, it has something to do with the arctic not no doubt We have also andres yato who is the Arctic ambassador of sweden, of course really connected to all the processes there And we have mr. Rene Södermann who is the senior advisor arctic cooperation minister for foreign affairs Finland Finland is always important to us in sweden, but it's extra important now because as we have indicated Finland will take over the chairmanship in may next year for the arctic council If I can turn first to you minister school, um, we have now had these scientific presentations The panel before the break here from a political perspective if you if you listen to all this What is a simple answer question? What what is what is the kind of action you can take? You think if you're looking at the political dimension Yeah, by producing we this report, uh, we have initiated a broader perspective as and as mentioned in the panel before I think Continue and introducing this system systemic Approach in all the work of the architecture would be very very valuable But also I think it's also time to say It's time to get concrete In our actions, although we obviously do not have all the knowledge of how these complexes this works We know enough to act And I'm happy to say that now that this report is finalized From the swedish side, we will suggest that the next time step would be to put wetlands in focus To become more concrete and focus on a crucial area Which are all both affected and can affect climate change and resilience in these parts And and that is an example for our side on how we can get more concrete in the work That's a good interesting point. We tend to focus on the eyes when we talk Arctic But of course if you look at the landmass about 60 of the landmass in the Arctic is actually consisting of different types of wetlands So it's you know, so what you are suggesting is that it's also very important We see that we need to create a framework systems thinking What I really also hear from you, which I think is great is to become also specific and understand the the key Systems and drivers as well really keep the systemic approach when you go down and become more concrete But keep the systemic approach and Continue talking about social aspect economic aspect integrated with the ecological aspect and have the True sustainable perspective on it All the way down to what you do on the floor Wonderful Andres, you are the senior article. I think it's such a nice title If I could ever be a senior article official, I think all of us working in the Arctic always dream of this senior article official. It's such a nice Title, but it means a lot of hard work. I know that because and you you represent Sweden in the Arctic council discussions when it's not a ministerial Um, and you follow those so the Arctic resilience report process. We've had an opportunity to present it a few times Now you listen to the final report Can you say something about that connection to the political process in the Arctic council? Scientific process and where you see potentially opportunities, but maybe some still some challenges Reflect reflect quite freely. Thank you. Now first of all, I mean you you were in in both Portland and close to the microphone. I see you were both in portland and Fairbanks Where we will represent or you actually presented the parts aspects of of this project together with Joel And I think that one could conclude and I was a little surprised actually that the that the It was such a strong support from basically every member state and the pp for this project Maybe in the beginning. I wasn't there at that time, but I heard from others Some people were a little bit reluctant. Maybe they didn't understand fully the the the the meaning of of Of resilience and the Jews of resilience, but now that has changed. I think so there's a strong consensus right now I think in the council that this is something that we should work with Also in the future and try to integrate it into the council's work. So I'm hopeful actually Can you I mean because you are really at that Bridging science policy. I mean you're a key person in all that Can is it something you can point out where why you think we have actually been quite successful? Not yet to see a lot of actions because it's coming But at least changing the perception and and getting this concept into a political process What do you think has been important? In that process. Are there any specific sort of learning lessons that we can draw? First of all because it's you know evidence-based and I think that's even even though we're apparently living in a kind of post-truth era Science has still some some clout so thank you So in that respect, I think that the strong connection between science and and policy is of course one reason another reason to be honest is that it's easier to talk about adaptation and resilience than To talk about mitigation So so it's for some some actors It might be a suitable way to be active without having to take the really hard decisions about CO2 mitigation and so on So there are several reasons but And I think that's an interesting observation because if you look at the climate negotiations at least, you know very Of course in a general sense. It's actually easier to talk about mitigation than adaptation So it's interesting that in the Arctic Council context. It's it's a bit different, but I recognize it large Arctic or climate ambassador talking about climate talking about other processes We we have talked about the sdgs today. We have talked about the importance of linking to paris in the Arctic Council meetings This is quite obvious It's a lot of connections nowadays and sweden took an initiative for instance, which I think was really good To bring arctic to the marrakesh negotiations as well How do you see This scientific report. How can it also play into for instance the climate negotiations? Does it doesn't make any difference? Does it play a role to have these kind of assessments when we try to take the climate agenda forward on a global level? Well, first of all, I can only echo what andra say that that with this report and the the I mean policy action needs to be based on on facts and science And this report provides a methodical framework on resilience, which I think is an important basis now and I think a challenge that we're up to here is that the global warming which affects the the the arctic is Is not in a way within the reach of the communities to act on it's coming from somewhere else But also We are distant to the arctic And I think there is an issue of perception that you need to address and it was booked up here before In your question. Do we identify ourselves as an arctic country? And maybe that's something that we should Know work or no, it's interesting that the map as well. I saw here If the future if you we look into the future And we see the signs of the future in the arctics Why don't we have a map where the arctic is in the middle? I was booked up with the map with the equator in the middle So that's the kind of way we understand the world We don't have the capitals within the arc If if we had the capitals closer to the arctic, maybe we would look differently So you would say I mean despite for instance the arctic being an extremely good example On what what can happen very quickly. I mean we see tipping points potential at least Is that influencing at all you would say for instance the climate negotiations Or is it just something happening in a distance and this is completely a political process and you know I think maybe it should be It should be brought more to the fore now and maybe in the next panel report that is being put forward now We are talking about two degrees and going down to 1.5 in the best scenario, but here These are changes already taking place at this stage and we're talking about much greater Changes in temperature. So maybe that's what we should be looking at because it will have the implications for the overall system So that's something I think it's important. I think it's important also to see what kind of platforms they are for the communities the arctic communities to to speak up at the At at places like cop the marrakesh and the like Really you as as we indicated finna will take over the championship and what is sometimes a challenge in regional bodies or in Well in any intergovernmental bodies Talking about the g7 or the g20 or or the council is of course that the chair Tends to have their own program, which means that sometimes things, you know, okay It's up there and then it falls and then there's a new thing coming But you have actually which joel alluded to you have also Indicated that you you know you want to take the resilience agenda forward and you have offered to host the first forum Can you say a few words about the Finnish championship and How and why potentially you see it import is important for you to take the resilience work forward in your championship Yes, thank you First of all, you have to understand that being a senior advisor means that I'm a layman also in resilience I'm capable talking about everything in that sense first time I got into resilience was actually with Joel and marcus in arctic frontiers Soon two years ago and Have to go back then home and look up in the dictionary what resilience means in finish How you would translate into finish? There is no good word for it in finish. It would translate Something like a surface that bounces back. Oh, you see not bad. Not bad but talking about the Finnish chairmanship We presented the program at the portland SAO meeting in in October and it basically it builds upon Two big themes and for for smaller ones and the two big themes are the global processes that are very important The sustainable development goals and the Paris climate agreement. So this is where we want to Have the attention of the arctic council for the for the two years that we will be chair chairing it The four smaller ones that you could talk about like national priorities They also have a connection to resilience We talk about environmental protection, which is basically is at the core of the arctic council mandate We talk about telecommunications or connectivity, which also is a factor to build the resilience or strengthen the resilience of communities We talk about meteorological cooperation, which could can help northern communities to better Adapt to sudden changes in weather like the one that we have now seen a couple of days ago with the plus 20 degrees In in arctic ocean and we talk about education and cooperation education Which also is a key factor in strengthening the resilience of of northern communities I would like to go back to the one question about the diversification of the governance of arctic issues and it is It is a challenge of having Different fora dealing with arctic issues But for example with the sustainable development working sustainable development goals We are all unified behind that through the united nations So that is one way of working towards strengthening resilience in arctic Was this enough I think it's a very good point because as you say we That's the really strength with the stg's that it helps us Combine the entire system in a way It doesn't create a new system And if I just may continue Finland has been Mentioned here a couple of times and I didn't know if I have anything left to say but yes We are committed to arrange the first arctic resilience action framework forum I think it will take place in 2018. We don't know yet. It has to be Discussed with the the group that is Working with this but it will be sometime somewhere in Finland probably in the north And if I can say you ask you I know You can't give a full answer, but let's say that we well there will be this forum As a senior advisor policymaker, what would be your expectations when we hold such a forum two years from now? Can you say a few words about that? I think I need a couple of more words well The goal for that kind of forum would in my view be that it actually in Kicks the ball forward even even further We have now come forward with both this report and also the framework that hopefully will be agreed upon in in March But then always when we come to a certain point that we're actually looking back We also have to be able to look forward and kick the ball in that direction Excellent. Thank you very much. Anders you wanted to comment something short comment Los Los ask the question whether we Whether we feel like an arctic nation or not whether we have an arctic identity or not and so I think that What's going on in Sweden in the north of sweden right now? I think it's very interesting. It's kind of an artification process where you see where Norrbottenfrogs are northern Most northern region is developing its own arctic strategy They are starting to realize the importance of the arctic and being a part of the arctic and when it comes to Implementation of this resilience concept. I think the regions are are actually exceptionally important We have to somehow because these are the guys who are basically building infrastructure regional planning Organizing school the school system and so on and so on. I mean they have an interest I think and they potentially have a capacity If they get proper help and guidance to implement regionally based Resilience strategies, so I think that's one important way to go If you want to transform this in from theory to to real politics That's great. So I had to work at many different levels clearly. It's interesting to see that joel If I dare to ask you a question Which is It's difficult to understand that but it goes back a little bit also and actually carolina I would like you to maybe Answer that as well because it comes back to you again. What large and others have stressed You know, how do we make sure that the countries? In the arctic countries in a broader sense feel that they are connected with what happens in the arctic But also feels the responsibility of taking action And of course in countries where what politics may change quite dramatically In the u.s. This is a case in point. We've had that and may see it in sweden. We've seen it in canada Going in different directions How do you because we are talking about long term building resilience is long term. It's about really, you know strengthening societies How do you do this in a complex political landscape? What would be your advice if you see for us as scientists? What is what are key triggers for us to make sure that we can connect to policy? Which is quite often or politics, which is quite often shifting What are the successes to make sure it gets embedded in the political system in a way? It's a very small question. That's a good one But can you can you give some advice because you're a government person? What do you see as success factors in making sure that When we want to see a change which we are talking about here It actually happens. Johan talked about getting Magdalena Andersson on board our finance minister That's one example of this but can you give us some? Yeah, I have a couple thoughts and it relates to the question earlier about our hopes Going forward and and where we have some degree of optimism because We've certainly seen the ebbs and flows of political interest and climate change But you know where it's mostly politicized as you mentioned earlier is on the mitigation side And We're internally trying to think, you know, how shall we continue with the resilience work That we're doing even in the department and ultimately it's not partisan I don't feel as threatened maybe as I should I feel like this is the kind of this is Essentially sustainable development work in a different through a different lens and This has to continue no matter what in order. I think for the science to take hold On the ground in the fields. I do think embedding Policy folks in your efforts as you conduct these studies is very effective. I think That way you've got someone in the room Thinking okay, but then what and and thinking and raising their hand constantly being really annoying to all the scientists in the room Because the questions that we're asking on the policy side are rarely the same questions that drive scientific inquiry because they're not necessarily curiosity questions, they're problem-solving questions and And having that perspective in the room from the start can make a big difference and also of course Just in general having these multi disciplinary groups working resilience lends itself very well I think to multi disciplinary work and as as marcus and others have described This is exactly what we need to do to build resilience. So I think having the right people in the room Can get beyond some of the political stuff now You don't want to have the higher up Politicles who are going to be saying no throughout the process. You really want to have those, you know, the engaged I would say career level. I don't know how it works elsewhere, but career level folks that are going to be sticking around following through on this work they may be They may need to change their approach from time to time But honestly, I think the work continues and I think resilient. This is where I take hope Is that this resilience work is the essence of what we need to be doing? And this is how we avoid suffering. No one wants suffering So I I think there are some opportunities along those lines. That's great. Yes. It's a good point And carina if you close your ears I also tend to say don't focus just on the politicians focus on the civil servants because as you say, you know They hang around for a long time But politicians are important. So carina, what do you say? I mean, what is your experience also? I mean, you work in a different political context, of course, but also here we have challenges to sometimes really get These kind of broader policies into Government in a broader sense. What what are the opportunities you see? How can we change that? But first your strategy is good I can do absolutely nothing without my excellent civil servants. I rely on them every minute of my work And I do see the connection between science and policy And needs very much to happen on that level And I come in on the closing seminar. That's where where I appear and it's a fantastic role But I also want to emphasize as Joel the multi science approach Because it is becomes much closer to policy Of course when you have a multi science approach and I often Dare scientists to talk about money Reminding people that most almost, you know, most of the policy decisions are either Loss or money. It's not very complicated And of course between that we do a lot of, you know, soft policy as well with the decision itself also Don't hesitate to talk about money Of course, it was I think it's quite clear in one of the examples here that Kiruna is a quite resilient city Why they're waiting in money? It's not very difficult to Shift to town when you have somebody just paying it Couldn't be done without loads or loads of money from the mining And you need to understand that of course The other point I also want to Has already been made but I want to say it again. It's about the regional level Focus in not only on the state level, but also on the regional level and the local level Is really really important because policy politics is not one level. It's it's an ecosystem Of its own and in these cases the regional and local level Is very much very very important And where politics on the national level can shift very quickly It is more stable on local And regional level much more consensus oriented and of course much more down to the ground and for Keeping that level in mind. I think it's very important and I think it's very clear now. We're standing And I was in Marrakesh And I met a lot of mayors and a lot of business leaders And they all gave me very much hope Saying that we are on the climate route And we won't stop working We will do the work In our cities in our companies So the climate agenda is very much lead led by Local, regional and private leaders and they are very very important Because of course in this work collaboration is Essential both within the Arctic control but above and in different including different sectors in the work Is also Crucial Thank you very much and you can hear that Karina has been a local politicians before speaking passionately about this So that's a really good and important point. I think we are trying to say that in many cases that Actually, the transition is already happening. So if a couple of countries You know stop, you know their transition work in terms of climate change a little bit. It's not that dangerous And longer maybe because companies cities so many other actors are driving this agenda forward now, which is great Is a positive development large you wanted to make a comment Yes Well, first of all, I'll say I think it's been very inspiring and learning for me these two hours here And I say that with the risk of now kicking open kicking at an already open door But so I'll post it as a question. No One thing that was brought up here was the bruntland report Some 40 years ago and I think perhaps there is some comparison because at that time in the early 80s we had a Arms race nuclear arms race and which also posed an existential threat And there were a number of reports coming out emphasizing. What do we have in common? The common security the common responsibilities the Palmer commission and the like so I Maybe this is already something you are working very much on the Arctic Council But that kind of concept what what brings us together as we also have competing And rival louis Is that is is that a concept to to be worked on so to speak? I don't know I like it. I mean in a way. I see the sdgs as being exactly that in a world that really did not Demonstrate itself on the Paris agenda with sdgs much broader Really focusing a lot on conflicts in the world. We still managed to get the sdgs and read the sdg document It's a beautiful document for being a un document and I'm always saying I don't think almost any You know heads of state read that document before they signed it, but It's so beautiful actually it's great and not just the goals read the text the text Going back to what was in markets or someone said people are not reading and longer We read the text is a un text which is beautiful sounds like a contradiction, but it's not Um You get you know now I know the minister has to leave at four sharp. René you have to leave at four sharp It's 57. I give you 10 seconds each to just give your Strong recommendation from the policy side to the scientist when we take this work forward What do we need to think about what is key? Give us your 10 seconds So you know you have your opportunity because we always kick up at you now you can kick down I think You have to make it concrete concrete That was even five seconds Took my words out of my mouth Since it's friday, you know, it's the economy is stupid. Don't forget the money Connected large Well each report they should be policy recommendations that we could pick up So policy relevant policy recommendations. Joel because you are our distinguished international guest Nordic is close From the u.s. I give you the final word. Oh, I love this. I love having the final word Thank you. First of all, I want to say you're in very good hands with carolina I'm very impressed with all that she's had to say so this is good news to hear a minister talk The way you have is is fantastic. So I will say that Second of all, I want to echo the that all change is local And I think we need to emphasize that bring resources to the local regions I think this group has done a fantastic job Moving these things along so keeping that ball rolling in that direction is the right thing to do to reduce suffering Excellent. Thank you very much it's three 58 59 And I I know you have not been able to ask this panel questions This is completely my fault if you're upset angry you want to tweet the poor moderator lousy do so It's fine. Don't blame anyone else. It's my fault said So what is also my fault is actually that you get the reception So it's compensation for that But first of all, I really would like us to give a warm applause to this panel You have been very open and shared with us your thoughts great And thank you to all speakers if you want to talk to them You have still joan rockstrom standing over there who one of the co-chair joel one of the co-chair the minister Maybe needs to rush. We'll see And we have all other people here other authors wine friday The Arctic is melting the depressive side Wine the positive side. So thanks a lot everyone take care Some final applause for joan. Thank you so much joan