 Hi, my name is Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 calm and welcome to this week's supplier and Demand Forex technical analysis if you're new welcome and if you're returning welcome back Haven't done these videos for the past couple of weeks. I hope you all have enjoyed your your summer as well with the you know, the friends and the family and all that and Yeah, we're back to a business starting obviously September Everyone's back from the holidays. So lots to go through also before we get into it don't forget to like subscribe and share the content if you find it useful so We start off before we get into the technical analysis on some of the fundamentals and the sentiment analysis So looking at the week ahead Trading economics say it will be a busy week with us in the US with jobs report ISN PMIs and trade data, right? In fact, we all as wise that important because of the the effect of potential trade wars with China All right, and we're getting to a little bit of that after this analysis Elsewhere central banks in Australia and Canada will be deciding on monetary policy So that's pretty much interest rates Whether they're going to be holding or cutting Interest rates and pretty much all major central banks are looking to cut interest rates due to the low inflation environment and global potential global slowdown also investors will be focused on the UK and India market PMIs the UK I think with the UK, it's more to do with Brexit any kind of economic fundamental news isn't really going to have much effect is more about whether the UK are going to be More likely to have a deal Brexit or a no-deal Brexit, which is going to drive the sentiment of the pound euros on retail trade and Germany factory orders. That's important because apparently Germany potentially are going into a recession and You know retail sales and Germany being Europe's biggest I guess country economically in the eurozone The focus really is on Germany and what they do and if they start to slow down pretty much everyone else is slowing down. So Eurozone retail trade Germany factory orders and industrial output and in China PMIs Australia second quarter GDP growth that would be important as well trade balance and retail sales and also Japan household spending so there is potentially, you know, a lot of In a data being released and what's really, you know, potentially market moving But also what is may overshadow pretty much everything is the US and China begin imposing new tariffs as The trade war escalates the Chinese exports worth 125 billion will face new taxes from the 1st of September pretty much today I'm recording this on the 1st of September while China places a levy on oil and agree and As agreements become more distant. So again, the more the closer The more that the trade war between China and America is likely to be resolved the more positive I think everybody will be and but according to this article by Martin Farah This You know pretty much spells out that there are, you know tariffs being implemented and That the Deal between China and America are maybe not as close as people may think even though This is an independent Australian market strategist mark Greg McKenna McKenna has said Concerns have been repeatedly sued by Coalitiary words from Beijing and Washington, right? We said the reality Could begin he said basically it could begin to buy with Sunday's new Round of tariffs. So come Sunday evening open UK time Monday morning We could see risk off which basically would mean that the Japanese yen and this Swiss franc as well as you know safe havens like gold May strengthen, but this is not a prediction It's just basically wait to see what the market sentiment is when it opens now getting into the technicals so Let's start off on the Dow Jones daughter index as we always do and again, this hasn't been updated None of these shots have been updated for the last couple weeks as I haven't taken a bit of time off from doing this so Let's load new bars and see what's happened So supply zone pretty much is held out and Dow Jones dollar index is really just a measure of dollar strength against the other major currencies like the euro the pound and the yen as well as the Australian dollar and There have been some opportunities to obviously show and go along on the The dollar and over the precinct, you know recent week we've had, you know some dollar Strength, so let's go to the price chart and see what we can do to update Any of the zones which I've kind of done already previously. So here we've got and here really was the previous demand zone there All right, so what we do is we look at the Dow Jones in an index for really just confluence any kind of dollar strength that comes into a demand zone You want to be buying any kind of dollar crosses advice versus so if there's any sell trades or we get some you know Some shorting opportunities What you want to see is the Dow Jones dollar index confirm that and dollar weakness if you know, I mean so now that we've made new high Higher lows higher highs we've Created a new demand zone right here So what you want to probably see if you're looking to short the dollar is look for The dollar index to start to sell off before you go in into the onto the dollar yen dollar Swiss Dollar cad etc and looking for short trades price if you're looking to buy the dollar You're looking at you know any kind of bullish price action Especially within an area of demand for confluence So next on list is the dollar yen And dollar yen again, it's about two weeks ago. So the last update was the 9th of August Let's see what's happened during that time and we've literally had Prices kind of just goes ranging between this demand zone and this supply zone did have a bit of a spike down Last week in the beginning of last week I think this is more of a stop-hunt and then prices have gone on their way. So if we're looking at the Dollar yen To really update the chart We could leave things as they are I guess I think I will just Make some adjustments. So We've made a bit of a higher high there In fact, this whole area I would say is demand right there What I am going to do though is I'm going to move this to around here just to Clarify things you've also got a level of what note what is known as support resistance resistance So if you are looking to get short Best bet is to put it up for this 107 round number or thereabouts before looking to get short What you want to probably try to avoid is the levels that have been to several times, you know fresher areas of supply are you know Better so, you know this 107 round number fresher area of supply is It's probably favorable if you're looking to trade some risk of sentiment potentially coming into the market Says the market opens pretty much look for pretty shorts now, but preferably up high if you're looking for long trades I like this area below the Around this one of five Round number and below so anywhere around here will be a decent area to look for some long trades and Use support and resistance in conjunction with supply and demand Really just because of the supply and demand equation if you want to know more about that and why Then there's a video that should pop up in the top right-hand corner It talks about the supply and demand Equations so these are areas where we want to look for potential Buying opportunities when you have a wide zone of demand like this. All right, so Next on the list is the dollar Swiss dollar Swiss and Managed to get into this trade matter of fact. I'm still in this trade And let's see what the new bars So what we've got couple weeks ago is nice Bullishing golfing candle prices have reacted from this This is a long-term demand zone. So zoom out a little bit. Yeah, so that was from the June 25th nice textbook trade right there prices are where they are now Again with risk of coming into the market and the supply zone here. This could be potentially a take profit area So If you are in this trade, you may want to look to potentially take profit and this at this 99 round number as well But again, we don't know All right, so It's just basically a take profit potential take profit area if you've got a decent risk reward again, like I said just Risk of potentially coming into the market. So if you're looking to Potentially get short on risk off and short dollar now is pretty much a decent time to have some nice Supply technically anyway, it's a nice supply zone To update this demand zone. We've got quite wide demand zones right here. So Let's just maybe move that down a little bit more I would say that area there is an area of interest But what we also have is higher highs and higher lows here. So we've got large zone So again when we get those massive zones, all right, what we want to do is separate them and look for areas Within that where other traders would be looking to potentially get long Or short within those zones. So we've got a level of Resistance there support there Resistance there and then we've got actually we've got a Bit of an outside candle right there So that's hidden demand. So this is where we're going to be placing the The Monson so pretty much if prices do come back to this area, this would be the first area I'd be looking for to look for long trades if not then You know down at this 97 round number is a nice area for Confluence or what you could also do is go down into a lower time frame and look for lower time frame Support and resistance zone. So that looks like one as well right there Yeah, but from a daily perspective Those are, you know, your your your areas to look for by trades now moving on to the dollar CAD Dollar CAD Last couple weeks. I think we've literally yeah been in this range between a supply zone zoom out a little bit A nice supply zone there and this demand zone again There was a nice opportunity for long trades there which we managed to take But really haven't gotten into any trades on this one again We're looking for after price to come back down to this demand zone or back down to these demand zones before looking at long trades if you're looking for a short trade then I Think right now Is a decent time I personally be looking for again if I was looking to get short a fresher area of Supply before looking at any kind of short trades long trades would be within this zone here We've touched it once so twice is is pretty much okay the CAD Depending on what happens fundamentally whether they're going to be potentially cutting rates or Holding rates, you know may drive The price of the Canadian dollar a bit stronger if they're especially if they tend to hold race They did get some good GDP news Some decent GDP news on Friday. So the CAD's looking quite decent matter of fact when it comes to Economic policy anyway when it comes to whether they're going to be raising cutting or holding rates moving on to New Zealand dollar US dollar and New Zealand dollar was literally just Continued lower and this is mainly due to there being a surprise cut so the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Ended up cutting more than expected So kind of surprised the market And so what the market is really doing at the moment is I would say is probably just pricing in that extra cut Let's see if it reached there. Yeah, so it's top of that demand zone there But also as well The US dollar is pretty much the strongest out of you know the two anyway, so you've got a whole load of Supply and prices really being You know driven lower due to strength of you know overall strength of the US dollar anyway regardless of what? The news is telling you about you know Dollar recession and US economic recession you also have to compare that to everyone else and The US is still number one currency overall Doesn't mean they can't be pullbacks, you know within that time or whatever it is but Overall, you still want to get you know, probably me personally is still long dollar Over, you know any any other currency and then he pullbacks just looking at this desk for me It's just shorting opportunities. So With the US sorry, the New Zealand dollar cutting more than expected What you're looking for is any kind of pullbacks Into these areas here. We have had a massive massive, but it's quite a long Down trend without any kind of pullback, so you you know You have to expect a pullback at some point and any pullbacks into these zones will be Areas that I'd be looking to get Shorting So best area for me is gonna be that area of confidence where you've got support support Should turn to what resistance here? So the supply and demand equation there should be some decent supply within this so in this area here Probably as well in the immediate short term It's gonna be some probably in within that zone there as well So again decent buying opportunity if you think that the dollar's gonna, you know get weak And to my dear the US dollar But overall, I think this is still a cell trade moving on to the pound dollar The pound dollar What have we done? So we've kind of bounced off of this demand zone a couple weeks ago Did get some price action here prices have literally gone through that supply I think it's taking out pretty much all of the stops to be of a stop-hunt here And now beginning to sell off and this is again due to some Brexit sentiment So what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna delete actually if I don't remove it up here now For those of you taking the course. This isn't necessarily your your textbook Supply as far as a strong level of supply if you go through, you know the analysis But I will keep this supplies down here because to deny that that there is supply here is You know is isn't necessarily true There is supply it's not necessarily the strongest area of supply and what we want to really see is You know basically a bit, you know more supply before understanding that this is definitely a strong area of of supply so That's what we're looking at. I mean there is an opportunity also to get involved on any kind of pullbacks But just again understand that from a daily supply perspective. This isn't necessarily strongest area of supply due to certain reasons There is demand here, so you've got a demand zone right there Change that to demand and also what I'm gonna do is I am going to Just get rid of this demand zone for now and draw Bit of an overlapping one. Let's see if that is. Yeah, so there's a bit of demand there as well and Then we have also Some support and resistance within that area So if you're looking at buying the first area, you know buying the dollar Sorry buying the pound isn't it is now and then you've also got I think another little area right here to look to buy and Then it's absolute low area right here And again, that's if you believe the British pound sentiment is going to get better i.e. the The UK is going to do a deal with Europe if you think so if you don't then this is really just a cell trade at the supply or Pretty much further up if you get um, you know some a positive sentiment That'd be a nice short trade around this one point two four five area um Moving on to the euro dollar and the euro dollar A couple weeks ago, there was a nice shorting opportunity right here in this supply zone And then we had prices set off and for those of you that have been watching for any length of time, you know that You know my opinion on the euro. It's just literally shorting the euro as a nice opportunity And you can see pretty much what's happening With the euro and the dollar the euro isn't in much worse shape than the u.s At the moment so there's really no reason at the moment to buy the the the euro We've also got potential quantitative easing coming in September the next week and a half two weeks and that should have the effect of QE is to weaken the currency so With that being said It's the intention of the European central bank to weaken its currency My people get get you know, it confuses that central banks don't want to be currency They do and that's because they want to stimulate inflation And if you read any of Donald Trump's tweets, especially one recently where he's complaining and moaning about the European Europe and China having an unfair advantage because their currency is weak Right because of like I said certain economic factors and what a weak currency the benefits that a weak currency has So don't ever think that you know some miss misconception that Central banks always want a strong currency They don't in fact all central banks at the moment are cutting interest rates pretty much Because they want weaker currencies. Yeah, so the European central bank are actually getting what they want Which is a weaker euro And it's pretty much broken this area here. So if you go to This chart really updated my supply zone right there Let's delete this level here and again any kind of pullbacks, I think Into this area here is definitely a nice shorting opportunity zooming out We haven't got any kind of weekly demand until this 108 level. So For now, it's pretty much shorts all the way. Let's just maybe clear some of this up Again, if you want to know You know more about the fundamentals. There is a fundamental analysis course And the link is in the description box below and it basically goes over, you know interest rates inflation and GDP and why Central banks would want a weaker currency to achieve their rate of their inflation Target, which is 2% anyways going on to the euro yen and the euro yen Whisk being off Pretty much the euro has weakened as well And we've come down into this demand zone. It's reacted and you know, we're back down in to this zone We've created, you know some supply zones also Staggered quite a large zone if you think about it where we've got all this level of supply And again when you have a large area of supply what you want to do is kind of see where There potentially may be some support and resistance within that area All right, so you've got Support bit of support here bit of support and then it kind of breaks down and it's you know, I'd say Area there's resistance. So if you do get a pullback into this area specifically, that's a nice decent short Long trades if you believe that the euro is going to get strong for you know, whatever reason Potentially just profit-taking and pullbacks now is pretty much a decent time to look for some long trades But risk off remember The yen is a safe haven currency. So Potentially the yen could look too Strengthened looking at the Aussie dollar and Aussie dollar Since we've really just gone sideways Within this a demand zone Nothing's really happened pretty much untradeable. I see nothing's untradeable, but from a daily perspective Nothing's really gone on So if we go back to the charts Not to update the chart, I'll probably say I'm gonna pull this Neville Down a little bit There is some demand here, but not necessarily a strong area of demand and there is also some supply Again, not textbook, but just to show you that there is demand down here And there is supply here. I wouldn't say this is necessarily the strongest area of supply or demand But if I was looking at either Now it's pretty much time to get long preferably if he goes with prices can go get down to that 67 or 60 0.668 level and again That's where your area of you know shorting is When it comes to this currency pair this week nothing really no really setups Potentially on the daily supply or demand Would you really want to be buying the Australian dollar versus the the US dollar? Again, that's really up to You from a technical perspective, but it's not the greatest area of supply has touched a couple of times But it's decent nevertheless But moving on to the final currency of this week and it is the Aussie yen Aussie yen, I don't think has Moved as much as I had expected expected it to due to risk off But we have had you know decided movement then we got a bit of a push down move up. So Again any shorts, you know over the past coming weeks. I will say coming weeks, but the past previous weeks With definitely opportunities and you can see where they've actually worked out Due to risk off. Let's go to update the chart I'm gonna get really get rid of this longer term demand zone And again, I'm probably gonna put some demand right here It's not necessarily the textbook demand, but to deny that that is demand Isn't correct. We've got a level of support there So I think if you're looking to get long then you can favor pull back into this area here or That fresher area of demand where demand is at its strongest from a supply zone perspective you're probably looking at a higher area to look for a Trade at the top of the range because if you look where the range is and Let's go from here to here, you know, where we are is just about fair value This would be a either a bargain or a cheap area And this is a bargain or a cheap area depending on which one, you know You want to buy or sell so if you're shorting then this you're assuming that this is a bargain for the Japanese yen, right, which is the reason why you're gonna be buying the yen And if this is you know, if you're looking to buy here You're saying that the Australian dollar is an absolute bargain at this price. So again Nice little range, but not necessarily the best when it comes to, you know, the level selection And how many times it's been, you know touched, but Those are pretty much your options for now shorting here or getting long anywhere around here. So guys take care And I hope you have had, you know, enjoyed the the technical analysis and for those that have Purchased the course. Don't forget that you have If you go to number 11, which is in the course area, right right here is plan demand weekly analysis, right? 11 and I've got the members market analysis for over 25 pairs which goes over everything that we learn in the course For over 25 4x pairs. So if you want to know a bit more, you can check that out. So guys Have a great week and I will speak to you soon. Take care