 When the market is ready to kind of tap out, at least tap out short term, the case study is the worst, the drek of the drek right in Yiddish. The drek of the drek, the crap of the crap always comes out and always makes the last one. That's kind of like that. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. I apologize. There was no recap video last night. Just like last Tuesday, both of my kids had practices in two different towns. So my wife couldn't make it. So I had to do the impossible and be in two places at the same time. So I apologize. I know there was a video that Kyler put out last night. I believe it was a clip from the webinar. So if you guys watched the last night, that was the video that went out. So let's talk about the tape. So we had a magnificent rally we really have this is two and a half weeks of absolutely phenomenal aggressive bull market action as aggressive as everything was for the three months that we broke below the 200 day moving average. This is how aggressive it is now for the last two and a half weeks on the upside. And if you look at the cues just just going from the cues, you'll quickly see that we've literally had three down days. This is also from the double bottom all the way from February the 24th all the way to March the 15th. We've only had three literally three red days in the last two and a half weeks going almost into three weeks. And a lot of traders a lot of traders are trying to pick the top a lot of the same way a lot of traders try to pick the bottom. It's not a game of guessing. And I've been kind of reiterating this point over and over again, for many, many years, the same way something just doesn't make sense on the downside. When you think something is oversold and it keeps on going lower, lower, lower, and the same thing to the upside. But there is a point that there is seller exhaustion. This is kind of where we ran into all the way back to March the 14th, March the 15th. And there's also something called buyer's exhaustion. And again, it's a little too early right now to kind of tell if this was like this exhaustion gap that the buyers just had nothing left yet three weeks nearly of massive mass of buying and now the market needs a rest. Or is this something that you can turn to weeks from now and nobody's going to know until that happens, you can make it you can make a determination of all this was the start of a rounding top the same way this was the start of a rounding bottom this was the stop of a rounding top and then everybody could be the you know everybody could be the you know the the guesser and you could win the internet for that day we don't know that right we absolutely don't know that but when you look at names that had I mean just ridiculous runs that mirror the cues you see a name like Apple right Apple this is its first down day and you could call down a dollar a down day this is literally its first down day in the last 123456789101112 12 days in a row first down day so it really does show you how super aggressive everything has been if you go through the nasaq 100 you're pretty much going to see every chart that's looking like that but as we all know even when we were sell buyers for three months everything doesn't go straight up right and just the way everything on the bottom didn't go straight down and now the cues are left with a kind of a situation of what happens next right and there's two cases that could be made and again I try to there's days that I'm super I'm super aggressive with my opinion on one side of the market because sometimes the market just screams at you you're biased in that direction but I try to I try to make a feasibility study based on facts right not where I think the market can go and I think we're all on agreement the market's a little bit tired maybe a little bit extended needs a little bit of arrest and you can see kind of in the price action over the last several days right and you could also make a big argument and here's kind of what it is there's two sides of this tape right now okay the bullish side is well let me start off on the bearish side the bearish side is this is a chicken without a head market what I mean by that is if you can make a mental image that there's something called when the chicken runs without a head right the body could still run around while the head is decapitated and so you can make a case here that what you saw yesterday right these big moves on you know pretty much crappy names let's be honest let's let's be honest with what they are you know the hoods of the world the fooboo's of the world right they had these really really big moves I guess there was a whole bunch of them right a lot of speculation money a lot of the meme names we're all going nuts potato potato right and you can make there's a there's a case study that says when the market is ready to kind of tap out at least tap out short term the case study is the worst the dreck of the dreck right in Yiddish the dreck of the dreck the crap of the crap always comes out and always makes the last one that's kind of like the the climax right the bull case is well what the hell are you talking about it really does show you how strong the market is our leaders are leading right our leaders are leading everything is good and it's just a matter of time even the crap gets pulled up so that there's a dynamic here there's definitely a dynamic here that you can have an intelligent conversation try to make try to state your point and see where you know see what you know who's right right who's right who ultimately plays out the great part about what we do as non-biased traders that trade both long and short we don't have to guess we don't have to make that determination but now we have to start looking at facts and and here's the facts right until we break below and and apparently from last night's video and I appreciate all the emails and stuff I didn't know we had a video last night until I got 3000 emails say hey Dan thanks for you know for the I had no idea we had a video but the one thing that I always talk about and it was it was in the video yesterday sometimes you have to make the most basic determination of right and wrong bull a bear by ourself and until we get below this five-day moving average on the cues you have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt even today when the nasdaq pulled in 177 points compared to the run that we had there was no fear right there was no fear I think even the biggest the biggest bear will admit there was absolutely no fear there's a lot of bounces they try to get the stocks down they bounced off a lot of levels so until we settle below the five-day and you can see here just visually right you don't have to be the greatest technician in the world you could see every single time we came to the five-day what happened right we bounced we bounced we bounced we bounced we bounced we bounced so until we have that conversation at the five-day moving average on the closing basis you have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt the problem is all these stocks are dead tired right so when you go into tomorrow's session what's the most big thing about what's the most basic thing for a stock to go lower right for a basic thing for a stock to go lower a stock needs to take out the previous day's low right and when you look at the cues we held yesterday's low very very well so we can't even have a conversation that we're going quote-unquote lower before we start losing the five-day moving average and we confirm the previous day's channels that didn't happen yet right but you also have to be prepared for it as well it's very very tough for me to turn around and say hey guys after 12 days of selling off I need to be long at apple at 180 you don't I mean you don't need to be long 180 you want to be long at 180 but look at the move the stock has gone from 140 to 180 it's tired it needs to go sideways you could turn around on Tesla we'll go into the individual pivots in a second and say Tesla's going higher Tesla's going higher Tesla needs to at least reclaim you know at least test this five-day support you see how it tested the five-day support kind of mirroring the cues hit the five-day balance hit the five-day balance hit the five-day balance hit the five-day balance we actually need a test right before we go macro higher we need to kind of a test on everything just to get a macro structure down for these stocks to kind of reset a little bit get their feet under them and then finally start going higher but that's the problem right going into tomorrow's session you know it's like you know it's like ordering a filet mignon and they bring it out and it's ice cold you kind of don't get a good feel about tomorrow just because of the you know we've been talking about the last five minutes we don't have enough power right we don't have enough aggression because everything is so tired to go higher but there's absolutely no fear right now to go lower so tomorrow is one of those days that you know i did my chart work and i turn around go yeah i like some ideas for tomorrow you know like look at amgen amgen has a long base here right a really really long base here the top of this channel here and today's high is pretty much mirrored here you know if amgen and again amgen is really not tied into the high beta names if amgen starts taking out this channel here yeah it could go higher i think it looks good right there's no fear in the market look at a name like danahur right and this is kind of where you you turn around say dan you're really reaching yeah i am really reaching because that's the point everything else is so damn extended that it's very very tough to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt and find value so yeah i am kind of reaching but look at a chart like danahur right danahur is sitting it hits supply twice you see that it hit daily supplies twice maybe danahur finally gets above the supply zone it could you know it could wake up but at the other side of the spectrum i understand that gravity is real as well so for example look at apple right 12 days in a row first right day you know what i will be watching apple tomorrow to the downside just in case right if you look at the bottom two channels here if you look at the 60 minute view right if you look at the 60 minute view you can see a pretty clean channel here right keeps on bouncing off this bottom channel if it loses this bottom channel again nobody's talking about well the stock's going back to the lowest this is not a conversation about that it's just basically look it's a strong market the stock is tired maybe comes in two three four points especially if they pull the market if everything gets a rest we're just looking for a trade nobody's so much arm again the stock looks great right we're just trying to take advantage of some price action even a name like tesla right look at tesla today tesla had a you know we'll get to the pivots in a second there was a really good pivot on tesla today it stopped at you know it stopped at this week's highs hey look maybe again maybe if it starts losing the bottom channel here at least it could test the five-day moving edge again nobody's talking about tesla q or tesla's going to zero we're just trying to take advantage of some channels to the ups to the downside just in case there are channels to the downside again i really don't have a good feel for tomorrow's session this is what we talk about waiting for value waiting for things to play out organically and waiting for you know your sweet spot again it's one of those situations if you're a professional trader and you're watching these channels like an apple like a tesla like an amazon they all kind of look the same right look at google right google sitting on its five day if it loses the five maybe it gets slammed as well but but the point is again i think the market's healthy i think any potential retraces healthy and the most important part is let the market reset let everybody take a deep breath and once they start trapping shorts on rising support then and only then we can start talking about a healthy continuation rally going into the spring we'll cut where we're in the spring but going into the summer so i'm kind of intermediate for tomorrow i got some longs i like i got some shorts i like but again i don't have a great vibe about tomorrow so i'll kind of you know i'll kind of play it as i see it for tomorrow's session other than you know again aggressive session you had some names moving up you had some names uh that you know that never got to their channel but the most important part is the preparation part again not you're not going to find every trade not going to find every stock so that's why do your homework find exactly what you want to trade and wait for those channels to confirm and and the cheat sheet is and the continuation of the cheat sheet is stocks that are getting massive option flow over and over and over again that are confirming channels those are the ones that are going to give you the highest probability go like for example afrm today they were coming you know they were coming for the 50s they're coming for the 51s the 52s look at afrm 49 needs to build right 49 needs to build traded perfectly right to uh the 51 area i'll show you in a second but nice move on afr afrm 49 uh crowd again preparation that's all it was they were coming for the 230 the 230 calls right out the gate uh 226 rejected three times needs to build here was crowd right here was crowd it took out the 26 you see how it got rejected three times in 26 it took out the 26 went right to the 231 supply you know perfect move i mean the market's been really good navidia is so weird man navidia i tell you man there's massive 300 calls coming in on this thing and this thing just can't confirm the top of the channel uh fooboo i was watching continuation from yesterday's move never got there hood i was watching continuation from yesterday's move iron never got there uh this is when you kind of figured out that the the market was going to you know possibility going to rest a square got upgraded to by golden sacks never got up to never got to that 149 supply to go but so that was kind of your first clue uh crowd again nice move crowd take on the way up punch a shot at 231 that's exactly where he got to great job uh for all you guys who took crowd perfect move afrm into the 51 supply i got to sell that area right that was the high of the day so great job there this is definitely the move of the day uh well at least uh you know again you can show using that how big how how not big that they could have been uh but you know things got really pulled out so 1100 and 1115 big areas now massive buyer came in for the 1150 calls beautiful move 11 1100 went right to 1114 area got stalled out again so this 1115 uh going forward is going to be good again another perfect example of lucid right another stock they started coming in for the um short term $30 expiration 2760 needs to build i said look there's a little bit of supply here 2803 2815 that's literally the high of the day so what you have to know your supply zones so you're not caught off guard on anything rblx never got to 53 again look now you know excellent action now we wait and i said look that 1115 area uh becomes huge so look value there is there's definitely value you know i i could definitely see the day play out two ways tomorrow either is a res day or if we could start confirming some sneaky downside channels we might get some pretty good action some cash flow action uh to the downside tomorrow until the market further uh consolidate so that's it guys have a great night everybody god bless and i'll see you all tomorrow