 Okay, welcome everybody to this week's Charting and Analysis webinar with myself, Jasper Lawler. I've got the risk warning on the screen here. I'm going to cruise through that and then we'll get things underway. As always, if you have any questions, please just send them through the chat window or the Q&A window and I'll do my best to address them. Okay, well, a couple of familiar themes for this week really. We had the Fed turning a little dovish last week, so the Federal Reserve is hurting the dollar somewhat and been a catalyst for a higher close for the US markets last week. But we also got Greece very much in the headlines today. There had been some early hopes of a deal, but as is pretty familiar from most of this year, those early hopes have been dashed by officials from the creditor groups. So still not got a deal for Greece. Today is a bit of a kind of false deadline really. This meeting was created and it was hoped that a deal could be done, but really there has been talk of a sort of assumed default if a deal isn't struck today. But I don't think that's really been acknowledged by the main creditors, namely the IMF and the Euro group finance ministers. It was just something sort of talked about really from within Greece. So I don't think even if a deal is made today that's not the end of the world and that's being reflected in equities at the moment. So even though an early deal was spoken of, really it's been essentially denied, but markets are still quite firmly higher. Just look at their German backs on the screen. It was up over 3%. It's off its highs, but that's fairly typical when you're up 3%. It's only so high you can go within a day. 3% is a fairly strong performing day and so you're going to get some profit taking. Up the upper end of that. As mentioned, last week on Wednesday we had the Fed meeting. There was a lot of people in the early part of this year calling for a rate hike at that meeting. Obviously didn't see it. So there are still plenty of people calling for a rate hike at the next meeting in which there is an accompanying press conference, which is September. But if you look at federal funds futures, which are really kind of direct bets on what the interest rate will be, then they're suggesting more in line with December. And so one of the big takeaways from that Fed meeting was that some of the growth projections have been paired back and the dot plots that suggest what interest rates will be at certain periods of time means that a few people have shifted from expectations of two hikes this year to just one. So still an assumption of one to two hikes this year, but the general trend is towards less hikes this year. And so that slightly undoes the strong dollar theme and improves relative outlook of things like the euro. Now, as mentioned, really just euro group in Greece is a bit the big one today. We've got some U.S. housing data later, but that's going to push prices around a little bit, but not too massively significantly, I would say. But if we do have a look at the U.S. 30 here, then we can see things are fairly range bound. So if you're a trend trader on a sort of multiple-day basis, even intraday, it's difficult in equities right now. If you are a range trader, at least that's part of your sort of repertoire where you're able to recognize that prices are going pretty sideways and just kind of acknowledge the upper and lower bounds, then actually this is a pretty great trading conditions because fairly consistently prices are bouncing off the support resistance levels. Nothing works perfectly, obviously, but as long as you have sensible stop buses, you could say we had that blow marked in from April 17th. That's broadly been the support in one, two, three, four opportunities since. And profit-taking not far off the high that was put in just before that was just about there, there it was, got a little more here, didn't quite get there this time we did. So as long as you recognize the trading environment, there are plenty of opportunities still. For me particularly in this chart, I use the RSI because I think it provides a bit more information, just a sort of overbought, oversold information that some of these indicators do. So you can see here that we did cross below what had been support in 40 years. You often see RSI oscillate between 40 and as much as the overbought levels in a sort of bull market, uptrend, it's going to say bull market, but really just uptrend and then you'll see the market capped by 60 and it's down as low as an oversold mark down around 20 or so. In a sort of downtrend. So this 40 level has been supporting the uptrend. Got a little break below there, corresponded with this drop, but we didn't really break the lows and hence we've had a push higher since. And a couple of failed attempts at again breaking this level was first put in here and we've managed to have a bounce and I think quite critically on Thursday, so the day after the Fed, we had quite a strong rally in US equities, put us right up back above 18,000 again. And so that was critical because 50 failed once, but the next time we broke through 50 we sort of held above 50. So to me, the next level if you're following RSI is 60. If 60 rolls over, that's still a chance that this could actually start. That's the first sign of weakness, perhaps a failure at 60 could be the first sign of things actually rolling over properly. But so far it's encouraging. That's the general assumption is that probably 60 is going to get broken and we'll move up towards the kind of upper end of this bound again. And the worry is that the Fed is about to hike rates and makes cash a bit more appealing than stock markets and perhaps raises the cost for businesses in terms of interest rates. It's still going to be very slow raising rates, but obviously markets are looking ahead to the future when rates would be a significant amount higher. So that's US markets. I mean they generally set the trend and so if we look across to UK markets, better performance post general election, but we did have this rising wedge pattern which I'll get back to this weekly chart in a second, but you can see the wedge pattern which I've mentioned in several webinars, easy to spot here, has broken. And the wedge pattern actually memory serves would possibly suggest a slightly larger correction, but you've got to be aware of these projections based on the height of the pattern. I think there is the highest part of the pattern, more conservatively here, just the largest distance between the two trend lines projected from the breakout area. But you've got to bear in mind strong support levels which is six, 700 is. And so it's not too much of a surprise to see that here it's a bit messy looking. This is the daily chart, but if we do switch back to that weekly chart you can see kind of more clearly what's happening. As we had this, the low pitch in here failed to drop through it here, massive spike higher there, and then we failed to close below it last week. So that to me suggests that failed to close below, bears have failed to close and push prices lower. So even though we're in a bit of a sort of weak looking environment, within that weak environment there's a chance of pushing back up towards that old high just to see, test the convictions of bulls in the markets if we can break above and actually turn around this break lower and push into more of a short-term uptrend. What could be the catalyst for that this week? Not so much in the way of UK data really. Probably going to be more external influences. Perhaps the Chinese PMIs, that's going to affect, that's tomorrow sort of early hours, tomorrow that's going to affect the commodity sector, the resource sector within the FTSE 100. And you know that could be a catalyst just alongside any possible resolution in Greece or lack thereof. And just the best barometer of sort of European markets in my opinion is our Germany 30 here. So we've broken this rising trend line, found resistance a couple of times, now I say a couple approaching the third time really, of this 55-day moving average, seemingly pushing a bit through it but finding some resistance at this old high, the resistance and a sort of familiar idea of how we're looking at the markets is just we're in a sort of downtrending mode, we're looking for a close below the previous low and we didn't get it. We had a bullish pattern, bullish hammer off the low there, pushed down for another attempt, big engulfing day, two bullish patterns, prompted a strong move up here right up towards the highs. Now we're in a downtrend so you would expect, a downtrend in the short term, you'd expect some resistance here, but if we do push above, there's a bit of a confluence going on here of this declining channel, if it persists, plus the 55-day moving average could provide a bit of extra resistance maybe in and around that round, number 11600. German data specifically, obviously very grease-orientated again, but on Wednesday we have the German iPhone data and so that will also be interesting in terms of sentiment within Germany. Actually, there's a lot more data than I'm suggesting but I'm talking about the major market sentiment changing type data. I did have a note from one attendee that not hearing the sound. Has that changed? I'm not getting any comments from anyone else and I've been talking for a few minutes here so I would imagine someone else would say it. Okay, get some confirmation elsewhere, maybe, I don't know, basic technical stuff here to turn the sound on, turn the speakers on, give the old computer a reset if that fails. Hopefully that will work. So from here, let's just switch over because we were talking about the Fed and so currency is a natural way to play economic data but when we're talking about the dollar, oftentimes the opposite to the movement in the dollar is found in gold and gold is proving to be fairly flat-trading except going into, then you see a pickup in volatility going in towards and following Fed announcements and non-farm payrolls data and so in line with that, we had the Fed meeting last week and we actually saw a bit of a strong rebounding gold. Again, you can see here this is quite a consistent trading setup if you like where this is the trading range so this is what kind of points out the main level that we're dealing with here. In the last chart of the Germany 30, we're in a downtrend, we're looking at an expectation of breaking the low to continue the downtrend. Here it's just a sideways market. That was the main low that we needed to break out of the sideways market. A few people would have had stock orders below there hoping that was the breakout and it did push quite far but in this sort of vicinity where we had this strong breakout here, that in the end caused a bit of support and again weren't really able to close beyond that level and have since been a rebound. As you can see the logic here, it's obviously a benefit of hindsight stuff here but you can see what's going on, a false break of the level and then pushed up fountain resistance initially from that high but then have since found resistance at this high here and coming off. Now the 200 day moving average is proving a bit of a headwind to gold of late. We did get a false break there but still the general tendency I would say for gold at the moment is to the downside but if the Fed are starting to get a bit more dovish, it's not even that the Fed are getting more dovish but it's just the data is still consistently quite weak. Now someone else is saying something about the sound but I think that's just got to be a couple of different people with sound issues. I don't think that's for everyone but I was just saying the Fed are not necessarily getting more dovish but it's just that the data is remaining weak and they've just said that their data is dependent for a long period of time and for my opinion the Fed aren't going to start raising interest rates and possibly risk this bull market in stocks and change the scenario for the dollar and for gold just because rates have been low for a long time. Three years in rates were low for a long time four years in rates were low for a long time it's not that time period that's going to dictate when they change it's going to be when inflation starts getting caught towards their target and last week we saw consumer price inflation at 0%. So that's not typically an environment in which a central bank raises rates at least significantly. So even though we've had a bit of a kind of pickup in gold still overall it doesn't bade well. Now if we switch over to all markets here now this trend line here is something to be aware of. Now if it's not perfect and you have to pit your spot in terms of which lows you're going through I would say it's near enough to kind of miss that one but if you use that low around that low we saw a very indecisive candlestick here and then a close below on Friday these peaks here along with this sort of Fibonacci level I think I've got there sort of holding it up but potentially that's the first thing to give is this rising trend line and then we've got this kind of range that's formed with these two lows here and the two highs here so we're in a sort of 60, 61 to 66 type trading range so I'd say the default assumption would be to maybe assume that 61 gets some kind of rebound and that 66 gets some kind of drop off in accordance with that trading range but just to be aware that this long-term rising trend line is broken and perhaps this correction could be starting to get a bit deeper. I think this is a fairly obvious trend line and you're going to get some sort of false breaks during the day so the biggest confirmation will be from a weekly close. If it's a strong move down below the trend line you're going to miss some of the initial move but then you can feel a bit more confident the prices are breaking down if we did get a move below that trend line and arguably back through this 21 week moving average then you could look for all more sort of short-term bounces to play that trend line break but looking a little bit dubious at the moment for me I mean still you could say that this correction is perhaps running its course because that was a lower low than a fail to make a new low. Now it's arguably making a reasonable bounce off here then we're arguably making a higher low so showing some support for that trend line to me is kind of what's supporting this uptrend and the break of that particularly for the week would be suggesting that we could be in for a move back down to perhaps as low as sort of 54 this low back here perhaps even 52. Well since we're talking about commodities here and then we just had a request I guess we've got a bit of a different quest here and it's not something I update as often for analysis of the Aussie index typically Aussie analysts are the best guys for that and you know they have their own blog which you can check out for maybe more in-depth analysis of the Aussie market but let me just bring that up here what we're looking at at the moment is still we're looking at this weekly trend we're still within what I would call an uptrend on this kind of longer term basis but we're into a sort of deeper then perhaps initially expected correction and so at the moment we're basically this to me was a big kind of breakout area sort of this and this so when you make a strong breakout like that and then you know you obviously you're kind of bouncing expecting a higher high doesn't happen form a bit of a double top here and then break down that's initially where you expect to find support is this previous peak we did just before it but it failed going into the lows of the base of the pattern essentially rolled over and then this next peak has found a bit of interest and then also just the kind of breakout area that initially kind of got this rally started so this is a fairly indecisive candle to me because yes it's a long wick of this area but we still made a bit of a new low not a closing low but we came off the highs as well so a good follow through the next week so to me I don't even know if we'd get back up to the neckline of that pattern again we can look at the number of closes in around there that could be a level to pay attention to we've made some progress if you see on the daily chart here we tried to knock back lower off of that sort of daily support you can see we kind of tried to sell off there didn't try it again got a good bid off of 500 so we're pushing back up I suspect between there is this breakout zone on the daily chart which we could maybe define as sort of there where this big strong candle breaks through their support maybe this sort of a tendency and we're still below the moving average could be an area we start seeing some selling again hope that's helpful and we're moving on to currencies now so yes I will try to cover EuroCAD as well if we just get into EuroDollar and then maybe follow that up with EuroCAD so this is a zone that I drew in a good while back it's basically based on the where we sold off from here we've got a big weekly high and then the area that we sold off from and it's that kind of supply zone if you like it's been capping trading and you've got a kind of resistance from that high here is where we again fell down and where we've faulted last week so obviously we're getting some higher high lows keep things simple here I mean how are you judging which side of the trend you want to be on you've basically got some higher lows it's not quite a I was going to draw a trend line it doesn't quite work but up through those lows it's higher lows but we need here we have the higher high higher than I would say this sort of this area but we need this to break through to make our high high and of course we're below the 200-day moving average which is generally not generally but it's an area that a lot of people will kind of say that while prices are below the 200-day moving average they're looking for opportunities to sell while it's above they're looking for opportunities to buy so if you're someone buying beneath the 200-day average you're either ahead of the crowd or just going against it and trading counter-trend we're above these two short-term moving averages but again it's this level really the 1450 that we need to break through there's no real I mean it's one of these kind of tricky areas where the longer-term trend has been down for a while and now we've seen a correction and people are trying to call the end of the correction but then people are also trading in the direction of the short-term trend which is higher so things are not quite as aligned as they were so beautifully here where all the long-term and short-term trends you kind of know where you are here it's just a larger correction which you would imagine has to end and see a bigger move lower at some point but we haven't quite seen it yet to me the fact that we bounced off the equivalent demand area on the weekly chart after selling off from here means the next time we're probably going to break it doesn't mean it has to be tomorrow but I would think that we're probably going to move through this demand area and the logic there is that we could move up to the next demand area which is actually pretty significantly higher up above 120 so similar picture in terms of the Canadian dollar where it's not quite such a simple bounce at this point where here it's more of a sort of sell the bounce here we get the bounce sell here we've had the bounce up to the old high but then we've moved higher it's not a straightforward sell the lower high within the downtrend we've failed to make a lower low and now we've pushed up to a high so it's a kind of deeper correction of this downtrend but that was quite a large sell-off and so this is arguably an inverse head and shoulders so we're back around the neckline that's quite a solid looking inverse head and shoulders on the EuroCAD but the price action since has been fairly weak and that's not really the kind of follow-through that you want to see you don't always get initially the kind of price action you want but to me with those kind of candlesticks with back below the neckline then probably that trades off and one of the better performing currencies last week was the British Pound now we've here it's always good to look compare and contrast the Euro with the British Pound and say this is the equivalent supply area on the Pound that we were talking about just now in the EuroDollar and the Pound broke through it last week so that's strong for the Pound we've had a short-term period of big strength so you'd expect probably a sell-off maybe down to the bottom of the supply area before we push higher again but the fact we've closed above there not only for the day but for the week to me is a good sign for the Pound certainly a confluence of resistance in this area but I think the bigger one that you have to pay attention to is just the fact that it's made a higher high we'll come into the end of the webinar here so I'm going to round things off there may be a call of extra currency pairs or a request, that's something I can cover on the on some additional time I have had a question on wheat to get into that and obviously anyone else throw through some requests so I'm happy to get into those Dolly Yen is obviously a great trade recently but we've seen some pullback there we started running into really with this one you need to look at the monthly chart and it was these levels here which you can see these two spikes here have caused the top in the in the daily prices for now still I think the strength of that monthly candlestick of the prior month suggests we've still probably got more upside but not that surprising there's such big resistance would cause a bit of a sell off in the short term especially given the what we've been talking about in terms of the dollar and we did get some comments from Coroda the I believe it was Coroda the President of the BOJ saying something along the lines of he can't see the sort of trade weighted exchange rate for the yen getting much weaker that was him talking down the currency a bit and they obviously want a weaker yen to help exporters within Japan but I think you can reach the stage where it gets into more panic selling than just a sort of orderly lower rate the support of the economy it can be something that starts being associated with lower confidence when you have a lower currency size maybe it's crossing that threshold for them in their bank of Japan that being the case I think a lot of central banks do tacitly consider themselves part of their job is to keep currencies within a certain band and if you consider that this is the highest level in over a decade then certainly it's reached the top end of its band so big sell off here finding support of the 38.2% FIB but my default assumption would be that actually we're going to roll over again and see a deeper correction that's countertrend so it's risky but a move through this floor would be the trigger there to support that idea that we're going further down now in these kinds of scenarios obviously selling towards the high is the lower risk if you believe that's going to eventually break but it hasn't actually broken yet so then it's high risk from the perspective of perhaps it's slightly countertrend someone has just mentioned pound yen so I'll have a quick look at that I'm going to end the recording now for the official session so for those who have to hop back within lunch break thank you very much for attending but I'm just going to answer a couple of extra currency pair pound yen and sugar and wheat for those who are interested