 President Mohammed Buhari dubbed it a budget of growth and sustainability. But Nigeria's 2022 population bill of 16.39 trillion narrow has raised a plethora of questions while offering a lethal basis for hope. The questions arise largely because of the assumptions on which the estimates in the bill are based. Now Buhari presented the bill to a joint session of the National Assembly on Festing but without a breakdown of sectoral allocations on like previous budgets. We will look at the highlights on the show today. Welcome to Business Insight and Plus CGI. I am Justin at the very end. Now during the week Nigeria's growth domestic product distribution of 774,000 cooking gas cylinders to women diesel price, investment banking and President Buhari's budget presentation headline business is take a look. President Mohammed Buhari has presented a total budget of 16.3 trillion narrow for the year 2022 to the National Assembly. The Senate President Ahmed Lawan said the National Assembly is committed to passing the budget before the end of the year. Speaking of the national chambers, the president tagged the appropriation bill a budget of economic growth and sustainability. The World Bank expects the Nigerian economy to grow by 2.4% in 2021. The projection is contained in the Bank's Africa's Plus by annual analysis of the near term macro economy outlook for the region. In June, the World Bank had set the GDP growth rate at 1.8%. To meet the nation's cooking energy need, the federal government has concluded plans to commence the procurement and distribution of 774,000 cooking gas cylinders with bonus to women in rural areas. The Minister of Women Affairs, Pauline Tolin, disclosed these at a clean cooking firm in Abuja explaining that each local government area will get 1,000 gas cylinders as part of plans to promote clean cooking. Fuel marketers have increased the price of automotive gas oil also known as diesel to 320 naira per litre as further rise in global oil prices and naira depreciation pushed up the cost of importing fuel into the country. The price of diesel, which is not regulated by the government, has surged by over 40% so far this year from an average price of 225 naira per litre in January. The 2022 budget of economic growth and sustainability has a projected capital expenditure of 5.35 trillion naira and non-debt recurring spending of 6.8 trillion naira and debt servicing projected to cost 3.61 trillion naira. With crude oil averaging $67 a barrel this year, the oil price benchmark for 2022 has been set at $57 per barrel with an oil production estimate of 1.88 million barrels per day. The budget proposal is based on an exchange rate of 410 naira per litre to the dollar and projected GDP growth of 4.2% while the inflation rate is 13%. But there is a proposed budget deficit of 6.26 trillion naira. We plan to finance the deficit mainly by new borrowings totaling 5.01 trillion naira $90.73 billion naira for privatization proceeds. President Buhari sought to alleviate over Niger's growing debt. Some have expressed concern over our resort to borrow and to finance our fiscal debt. They are right to be concerned. However, we believe that the debt level of the federal government is still within sustainable limits borrowing at specific strategic projects and can be verified publicly. But a sustainability consultant would like the government to look inwards in funding the budget deficit. Currently MDAs as well as international oil companies and other very important organizations across the country refuse to remit certain funds within their disposal to the federal government and we know that this fund runs into trillions of naira. So I think if the president can actually focus on getting these MDAs and IOCs and other relevant organizations to do the remittance they need to do in respect to their taxes and other obligations to the federal government maybe we'll just be able to generate just enough money to be able to shove the issue of borrowing to the ground. With the early presentation of the 2022 appropriation bill and all things being equal Nigeria could well be on track for a budget cycle of 12 calendar months from January to December. Merci beaucoup for PLOS TV Africa. Now that report leads our discussion for today I'm being joined by economists Tunji, Andrews and Okusoya. There are many thanks for joining us on Business Insight and PLOS TV Africa. Thank you. Thank you very much. I'll begin with you. Thank you very much. Yeah, thank you gentlemen. Let's talk, let's try and analyze the budget because it has actually generated lots of concerns and more reactions from Nigerians. The president justified the frequent borrowings by his administration, say the country's debt profile is still within a sustainable level. What would you say as we got to that particular statement of the president, do you really think that we are clear or that we are approaching troubled waters very soon? No, I don't think so. I'll be very honest with you. My general problem with the project is that year on year it seems to be the same figure, the absolute figure in dollars. If you run to it, you might do the calculations yourself. Check it all the way back to about 2013-2013. The absolute figure has always been around $30 billion. This worries me not because I do not think it should be spent appropriately, but it worries me because it does feel like the country needs a lot more in terms of investment. We were expected to grow anywhere between 2.5% and 4.5%, depending on who you ask. But I think we should be growing at about 67% to be able to meet the large growing population and also the infrastructure needs that we need across the country. We need a lot more infrastructure, so I think we need a lot more money, but if this is what we have, I think we should be able to use it as judiciously as we possibly can. All right, let me bring in Okusohara in this particular discourse now. The president's estimate is about 25% higher than that of 2021, let's say in 0.08 trillion Naira. But then again, the president is basing his estimate on 410 Naira, 15 crores per US dollar. Do you agree? Do you really think that particular estimate is realistic? Okusohara. Thank you very much. To me, let's look at it from the analysis because the problem we are having right now is the debt we are wearing. And they're looking at 2021 and then 2002 budget. I mean, the last budget before now is worrisome. I don't think it's real because I'm much concerned about going here and there because as of March, we have about 33.107 debt that we still have on ground. And to me, I think he's a no-no for me. So what would you really say right now, this particular presentation yesterday was not as detailed as the previous one? What does this really tell you, Okusohara? Anyways, the first thing I will look at is our debt profile, which I've said earlier that is worrisome. People are worried about what we have on ground. And then just like what I had is that we don't really have enough because people that we are working with directly, I mean the Nigerian government are working with directly, they've no remitted what they have on ground. Let's focus on that one first. Let them come in, give us what they have, and then we can know what to do next. Alright, let's talk to Tunji right now. Let's do talk about the estimated, Tunji. The budget proposal is predicated on an oil benchmark of 57 US dollars per barrel, daily oil production of 1.88 million barrels. Okay, strangely like I have said, of a 40 or 410, 9 or 15 per dollar and projected GDP growth rate of 4.2% and 13% inflation rate. Do you agree with all of these figures or do you really think they are realistic that is on one side and that if they are not, what do you see happening come 2022? So historically, you want to look at historicals now. I don't think there's ever been a time where our expectations in terms of crude oil output has ever been realistic. We've always shot above 2 million barrels of oil per day and I do not think we've ever done 2 million barrels of oil per day. But those expectations are budgetary. At the end of the day, it's what we want to spend. I want to quickly come back to the conversation of debt and I think it's a problem. I'm not entirely sure why the president himself touched on that because debt is bad, no doubt, but the Nigerian debt situation is still sustainable. The real issue is revenue. Debt is still significantly under 30% of GDP which is very sustainable. If you want to check it with global averages, you want to check it with countries like Japan which is doing over 150% of GDP, you would realize that Nigeria is in a sustainable debt position. The issue is revenue. We have a poor revenue generation model and the reason is because we rely a lot of our revenue on crude oil as against taxes and other internally generated conversations. So for me, the issue is revenue. Debt, I mean, if you look at it, it's fine and that is the reason why we still continue to get acceptance when we go to the world to borrow. Our last Eurobund was over-subscribed. The next one will be over-subscribed because we are still in a sustainable place. But if we want to really have the conversation, it is really about our revenue which brings us to that $30 billion on a regular basis. If you want to ask me what the shortfall will be, there has always been for the last maybe six, seven years we will end up coming back sometime around April, May and we'll have to have a supplementary budget and we'll borrow a bit more. I think that is the model Nigeria has continuously used but if we want to really have a conversation, let's talk about revenue. You've talked about revenue. Let's stay on that. Let's stay on that for one minute and talk about what we are not doing right. Over time, Nigerians have talked about the President's administration have talked about diversification of the economy, moving away from just mono-economy and of course exploring other aspects. Over time, we have increased VAT and other tax bases. What else do you think we need to look at to talk more about generating income internally away from the regular oil revenue and all of that. What can we do because of course the government seems to know what is to be done but we're similarly not doing what we should do. The problem is expanding the tax net and I do know that those in appropriate authorities are doing what they possibly can to be able to expand the tax net. You see the problem is we have a very low tax base in Nigeria and very, very low tax base. I think if I'm not mistaken, it was something around 5%, we should be pushing it upwards to somewhere around 20 to 25% to be able to get the kind of revenue we really seek to be able to run the Nigerian economy. The other problem again is that if these people who are in the informal sector in Nigeria are taxed informally, so there are these informal sector ways of taxing themselves that have been spread around the informal sector that is not getting into government coffers. I think government needs to find a way to be able to make sure that each and every Nigerian that pays a tax for putting their stall or putting their shop or selling on wherever they are selling their wares should be able to pay taxes and in those taxes are paid, it goes directly to government coffers. All right, Okusoya, very quickly. Let's talk about sectoral allocation inasmuch as the federal government or the president rather was not particularly detailed about it. What should we be looking at? Looking at how far we've come from 2020 or the COVID-19 pandemic and of course the similarly insurgency that has skyrocketed and almost every other day. What should we be focusing more sectorally in Nigeria? If we were to look at it, I will talk about agriculture. The level of agriculture in Nigeria is very, very low because we will really focus on Trudoi which is not forthcoming any longer except if we are deceiving ourselves in this country. If the government can really focus more on agriculture, I think it will be of help to the nation and to the world. All right, let's get some final words from you gentlemen right now. I'll start with you, Tungi. You've talked about, you know, the federal government expanding the tax and Okusoya talked about agriculture. What more should we be doing even as much as we might increase taxes and of course explore agriculture? If we don't sort out the issue of insecurity that has actually been devoured, you know, food prices across Nigeria, how do we see ourselves doing in 2022? That's a difficult question but I think what I can say is we do not need to increase taxes. What we need to do is widen the tax base appropriately to be able to reach more Nigerians and then we would be able to have this significant amount of revenue that we should be having as a country but the insecurity issue is a problem. It is affecting inflation. I do not know what the cure is but I know that the reason why the people in government are in government is to fix such issues so I'm hoping that they'll be able to fix it as soon as possible. All right, Okusoya, last words from you as we wrap up this particular session. The usual of insecurity as well too. I will keep it the other time but I only talk about agriculture. I think the usual of insecurity is the main problem in the Nigerian government need to focus on now if truly we want to move forward as far as I'm concerned. All right, thank you gentlemen for sharing your thoughts in as much as we had limited time to look at all of the issues but we do appreciate it. We were joined by economist Tungi Andrews and of course Okusoya. There were many things once again gentlemen. Thank you for having me. Thank you for having me. All right, moving on. On business 101 event planners are revolving new ways to stay relevant in the business world. We'll leave you with highlights and what they have going on concerning that. Unfortunately, that's the size of the show for this week. Let's do it again next time. I am Justin at Tadone. Bye for now. The business of event planning is gradually gathering momentum when the entire world was hit by the effect of COVID-19. If there is one critical piece of information sought after by event players at this time it is the knowledge of how to survive and navigate the storm. Interestingly, that knowledge came in the way of event practitioners who recently benefited from the knowledge sharing training and strategy session which focused on embracing transformation the game changer. The session tagged Esmeralda Masterclass 3.0 was put together by the association of event vendors in Nigeria. Organizers speak on the essence and how active players can buy into it as well as the future of the industry. Change is a constant thing in life. Fortunately or unfortunately pandemic has made us to realize that we have to change and evolve in the ways we are doing things. My advice to the industry is to see the future and almost picture whatever would evolve after this system and position themselves in such a way that what happened to a lot of us during the COVID era would not repeat itself. Hence we must always change and evolve along with the situation of the country. We are beckoning on the government and also begging. We understand that things are biting hard and affecting everybody. But we are begging them to look into this and see how they can help us cushion this crisis because it's affecting us. Imagine where you have to tell a client that social crisis is what you have to pay and the client is saying it's too much. I can't afford you. How then with this event premiums it? How then can they cope? We encourage event vendors generally to stay at the top of their game so that they can transform and get to the next level. They don't have to be stagnant in one particular place. They have to open up their new horizons out there for people to look out to yes. I want to use this opportunity to thank the government so far for how they have helped in the event industry. The exchange rates, the increases it is not favorable at all. We have things that we want to bring but we cannot bring. These are things that can help transform our business to take our business to the next level. But we can't achieve these things because of the cost of dollar.