 Hello and welcome to this month's non-farm payrolls webinar on 6th of February, Friday 6th of February 2015 with me, Michael Hueson, and my colleague Colin Szczewczynski in Canada. It's going to be our pleasure to walk you guys through today's or this month's non-farm payrolls data. To be quite honest, I think it feels a little bit like an empty climax because we've been so focused on Greece this week that really we haven't really thought too much about what effects the non-farm payrolls number that we're going to get today out of the US will have, but also what effect that the Canadian Jobs Report will have because there's definitely going to be a little bit of push-pull on those numbers, particularly on the dollar Canada which has been absolutely hammered over the past few months on the back of the weakening oil price. But for the time being, let's look at what we're expecting first and foremost for non-farm. So I'll bring my Bloomberg up and we can see the numbers right in front of us here. Now hopefully all you guys can see my Bloomberg here. I'm going to make the window as big as possible. So basically we've got the expectation here and changing non-farm payrolls. Bloomberg are expecting around about 228,000 which is obviously down from the December number of 252. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.6 percent, but I think the main focus this week is less about the actual headline number and more about what the average hourly earnings data will be. Now there is an expectation here of a rise in average hourly earnings of 0.3 percent and the year-on-year number to rise to 1.9 percent. Now if that's a weak number then I think there's potential for the dollar to sell off. And I know you and I have talked about this before Colin, haven't we? You seem to think that we will still get our US rate rise this year. We just might see it at the back end of the year whereas I'm of the opinion that we won't see one at all. So if you'd like to expand upon your reasons, you now have the floor. Thank you. Yes, I do still think that the US will raise rates back up too. Probably I'm now thinking about 1 percent by the end of the year. They could do that by three-quarter point increase starting in September. Originally there's been a lot of talk and even through this week from various Fed members about not only when are they going to start raising interest rates but how are they going to do it. One scenario I had thought of was that if you started in June you could do a quarter point increase every other meeting. So there's two scenarios you could follow. Some members say start raising interest rates and do it slowly. And some members say well let's just hold off and do it more quickly later. So I think that's a battle we could see play out among different factions within the Fed over the course of this year. So do you think the US economy is strong enough to withstand a rate rise when everyone else is cutting? At this point, yes. They do. They haven't gone the wrong way. The question is how long is that going to last? And what happens with the US dollar? So far the US dollar has moved up enough to basically does do the equivalent of a couple of interest rate increases here. Does it continue to rise or does it come back off? I mean if we get a low number here and the US dollar will probably start to come back off and then I do think you'll see it at least push out to September. Okay. So let's look at the numbers because we saw the GDP number last week, it's 2.6%. We saw yesterday's trade deficit numbers, minus $46 billion, which suggests that exports remain fairly weak. But more importantly, let's look at the retail sales numbers over the course of the last quarter. So I've actually been negative if you actually look at these numbers here and the consumer confidence has been rising, retail sales have been falling. Now next week we've got US retail sales for January and they're expected to decline again. Yet consumer confidence is at 102.9%. For me Colin, we're talking about the data and you're talking about consumer confidence but all the data we've seen thus far suggest to me that inflation is falling and we're just not getting what I would suggest is the actual growth going in the opposite direction. Yeah, I know things do seem like they're slowing here and that's why I find it interesting when all the Fed members come out this week and are still saying that they're on track and they still want to do it. I think they're going to go later, I'm not convinced that they're going to go as soon as they've been talking and yet the numbers are slowing down. I think though they will focus more on the X energy numbers so we probably want to focus on those. But I'll be honest, even core inflation has been a bit soft lately. Yeah, exactly. I looked at the prices paid on manufacturing this week and it dropped to 35 as well below expectations. We look at the employment components of non-manufacturing, it dropped to 51.6 from 56.5. You look at what's happening with respect to the oil price and the likely drag back of all the drag down effects on that. I suppose it's really a question of how much of a time lag you think you'll get on these oil price declines going forward. I think so. Yeah, and also on that, Michael, the time lag between the Hemic effect where you have the sharp drop-off in employment in prices at the beginning with the oil price crack before it ignites the rest of the economy, it's a matter of how long does this lag take before the positive effects work out. There is a delay and that's probably going to impact also how long it takes for the fed to raise rates because at some point, historically these crashes, it's a short-term negative but it's a long-term major positive for stocks and for the economy. I mean, I think you have to put the unemployment rate in the context as well of the participation rate. Yeah, absolutely. In the UK here, we've got a fairly low unemployment rate and we've got a very high participation rate. In the US, you've got a very low participation rate and a low unemployment rate and I think the more important rate is the under-employment rate, which is 11.2, which is hardly budged. They talk about a tightening labour market, well, I don't see it. I still think there's a significant amount of slack there and the fed does have an inflation mandate and they're missing it by a mile. Yeah, certainly on the headline numbers, they're going to be low for a while and probably for a year with this as the oil price works its way through. Okay, so let's look at some charts and look at some of the key levels because I think this is basically what I think the guys on here want to look at. Certainly looking at the S&P, we're right on the top of that right shoulder. This is around about 2068, 2070. So I think really what we've got to think about here is what would a good number first and foremost do with respect to the dollar, but also what does it do with respect to the stock market? With the stock market, I think we're in a range. The bottom of that range is highlighted by this series of lows that I've linked through here and the 200 day moving average at 1975. If we get a good number, will that actually be stock negative because of the fact that it might potentially bring a rate hike nearer? I don't think the actual headline number is the important number here. I think the important number is the participation rate and the wages data. So what might happen is you may get a fairly good headline number, which will be fairly positive from an economic point of view and a dollar point of view, but you might get a very weak average earnings number. So what will happen is you'll flick between the extremities of the range. I certainly don't think there's an awful lot of upside left in US markets. Earning is notwithstanding simply because we haven't really had some earnings that up in particularly good, Boeing and Apple notwithstanding. Obviously we had LinkedIn and Twitter last night, which were fairly good, but it's not been, it's been fairly unremarkable, I would suggest. There are not huge burn burners in terms of earnings and the guidance also has not been overwhelming either. Perhaps one thing we can mention on the headline number, what we've been looking at for a long time, the sweet spot, 200,000 to 250,000. Over 250,000, the Fed has to raise rates sooner, below 200,000, they'll probably go much later. You and I, Michael, are both below the street. We're both down in the year 205 and I was 210, and both of us have been factoring in a slowdown on related to the layoffs in the oil and gas sector. Yeah, I think that's right. I think we'll get a weak number because of that. It also ties in a little bit to my dollar weakness theory because if we look at dollar weakness, I think this is where it feeds in. We've had a breakout on cable. We've had a breakout on cable around 152.80. I don't know whether you've seen it. We've got what I would call a potential double bottom breakout or a potential breakout on a triangle. We've broken higher. Now potentially, now that we've broken above 152.80, which is essentially our breakout level here. This is a four-hour chart I'm looking at, ladies and gents. And you can see it here. I've drawn a blue line through the highs here, but I've also drawn a horizontal line through here. Now, irrespective of how you measure that, I think as long as you stay above this black line here, which is around about 152.60, 152.70, if you measure this up, this puts us at around about 155, 156, which is this series of lows through here. So potentially, I think over the course of the next few trading sessions, we could actually see further dollar weakness. But how are we going to get that? Are we going to get that through a weak headline number, or are we going to get it through a weak wages number, or are we just going to get it naturally because of the natural positioning of the market? I think the US dollar, regardless, had gotten way over extended here and was overdue for a correction. It was over extended again, pretty much everything. And we're starting to see the rebound. We're seeing the, well, the incredible volatility was basically a stabilization of rebound in crude oil. We're seeing it in cable. We're seeing it in the euro bouncing up off 111 to closer to 1415. We're seeing the, even the US dollar CAD has come back off a little bit off the tie. Yeah, let's have a quick look at that. There's a natural rollover, but a soft employment number could accelerate that. Let's have a look at the dollar CAD because I think this is actually a nice little pattern here. Can you see that? We had a bit of a top hit put in here. We've got a potential bearish engulfing here. It's not quite a key reversal day, but it's pretty close. And we've got what I would suggest is a bit of a neckline around 123.60 on the daily. Look at their rollover on the Cucasic. So it does look as if it's starting to roll over. Let's look at that on a weekly. And again, look at that. So that could actually be potentially very interesting on the dollar Canada if we break below 123.60. We could actually get a pretty good sell off there. So I certainly think, ladies and gentlemen, it's worth keeping an eye on that. They're just there on that, Michael? Yeah, go on. On the Canadian jobs, I think Canadian jobs are going to get hit even harder than the US jobs on the oil patch crunch. And so I was looking at negative $15,000 on that. The streets are plus five. It's plus five. It's right here, yeah? Yeah, I'm looking. I posted my guess it's negative 15. OK, what about the unemployment rate? Tick up to 6.78. 6.78, yeah. OK, all right, well, we'll keep an eye on that. We'll keep an eye on that. And have a quick look at Eurodollar before we get to the numbers. We're still just over two and a half, just under two and a half minutes. Eurodollar is slightly different. Again, this is a four hour chart. And we're pushing again against the limits around 115. But we can actually see that potentially we are starting to trend and squeeze a little bit higher. I think what we do need to do is break above this 115.30 area. But again, in my weekly video on Tuesday, I suggested we might get a squeeze to 117. Now, whatever you think about what's going on in Greece at the moment, you could argue it's Euro negative. Undoubtedly it is. But I don't think we're going to get any form of color on that for at least a couple of weeks, which gives us, I think, a little bit of what I would call scope to squeeze higher on Eurodollar. And potentially squeeze back to this series of highs just below 117, around about 116.80. And certainly if you think that the pound is going to go high against the dollar, then you've really got to think that potentially it's going to go higher against the euro as well, if not as much. But certainly I think any dips in Eurodollar, you're probably going to find a few bids around the mid-113s if we get one. Otherwise, whatever the number is, I'm still slightly dollar bearish, only because I think the market is so one way in terms of being dollar positive that any sort of rally in the dollar could well see a little bit of profit taking. We've got a similar sort of thing on the dollar index here as well, a significant area of support around about 93.56 if we make that a weekly chart. Again, we can see that on the weekly chart. It does suggest that potentially we could be building up for a bit of a sell-off. Did you put up an RSI or a stochastic on that, Michael? Do I have time to do that? We've got 43 seconds. What was that dollar index? OK, don't worry about it. We'll show it later. We'll show it later. And somebody said to see the RSI and the stochastics are rolling down, too, on that. OK, so I'll just quickly put one on there. So we all remind that it's rolling down. It's rolling down. I mean, it's almost at 50, so. Yeah, it's almost at 50. OK, so basically, we've got 15 seconds. So I'm going to pull my Bloomberg over to here so you can see all the numbers as they come in. Whoops, hang on a second. And hopefully we'll get some color in 3, 2, 1, and go. 2, 5, 7, wow. Well, look at our revision, though. Look at our revision, 3, 2, 9. Look at 3, 2, 9 to December. Huge, that is massively dollar positive. But the unemployment rates ticked higher, 5.7% on the unemployment rate. Let's look at the average earnings numbers, 2.2. Oh, my word, look at that. So that is massively dollar positive. Massively dollar positive, that number. So let's go. Yes, that's a big uptake in inflation. And that's even with losing high-paying jobs in the oil sector. Yeah, it is. So basically, that blows my theory out of the water. So now, really, it's a question of where do we go from here? Certainly, I think Eurodollar is going to test lower. So it basically brings us back to what I was saying earlier about the mid-1 13s as being a support area. And look, that's where we are. It looks like we're heading back to this line down here. Looking back on the cable, I think there's certainly potential for us to come all the way back to this area of resistance. Well, what was resistance is now support around about $152.60, and maybe even down to $152.00. I certainly don't think that we're going to get a significant rebound today in cable of Eurodollar on the back of those numbers. The market is going to want to test the appetite for pushing the dollar higher, I think, this afternoon, unless you have a different view. But I think on that basis, we're going to want to see what the appetite is for pushing the dollar higher. Let's have a look at Dolly Yen, because I think that's quite interesting as well. You're not even speaking. Yeah, of course it would do. So we've got Dolly Yen again here. You've got a pretty muted reaction, to be quite honest. On that sort of number, I would expect Dolly Yen to be an awful lot higher on the back of that. Given how sensitive it is to the bond market. A number like that is going to make you think, well, surely a US rate rise is sooner rather than later. We should push yields up. And Dolly Yen should react to that, and it's not reacting to it. So let's see if the US 10-year note has been sold aggressively on the back of that. And yeah, it has. Look at that. I mean, that's a massive sell-off. So basically, for those of you who don't know, and I'm sure most of you do, yields move inversely to prices. So a sharp sell-off on the US bond market will basically push yields higher. And as a result, interest rate expectations bring forward interest rate expectations as well. And certainly, there's potential for a little bit of a topping pattern there. Let's look at the Canadian jobs numbers, Colin, because I think that could be interesting as well. So the headline number was really big. 35,000, well above the 5,000. If we break it down, though, look at full-time jobs, it was the loss of almost 12,000. So that's pretty much in line with what I was calling. And you're looking at a 47,000 increase in part-time employment, which basically offsets that that revised 46,000 increase from the previous month. So I think you've got some distortion in here from part-time jobs. And actually, I'm surprised to see that considering that we've got targets shutting down, there were other big layoffs announced in Canada during the month, even though it's side of the all-sector stuff. Maybe there's a lag in there. Maybe there's a lag. Because you also had the fact that Target, basically, was pulling out of Canada as well. And you would think that that would actually have a negative effect on the employment picture. When is that happening? The liquidation sales started yesterday. And apparently already, since they put it at the announcement, absenteeism has gone way up. People are bothering to come in, even if they haven't actually been laid off. They're not really working there anymore. So you'll probably see that hit the numbers over the next couple of months. OK. The participation rate in the US has jumped from 62.7 to 62.9. So that's an interesting number. Let's just close that down there. So all in all, I'm a fairly good set of numbers. Certainly fairly dollar-positive. And it certainly has affected the bond market. Let's look at Brent Crude. Because I was talking about that earlier with respect to one of the clients and suggesting what to expect from that. And I think there's potential for that to push higher on the back of those jobs numbers. Certainly positive in terms of demand relative to supply. Let's not forget also that we've had seven successive monthly declines. And I think we're well overdue a bit of a pullback. So from that perspective, if we can break this high here that we saw earlier this week, around about $58.5, then we could actually see a move higher in Brent towards around about $65 a barrel over the course of the next few trading sessions. Certainly we've got a significant area of support going through this area here, just above $53 a barrel. So keep an eye on $53 a barrel. We're getting a little bit of a crossover on the two moving averages here, which are the 50 and the 200. So momentum is starting to turn positive on the four hour chart, which would seem to suggest that if we get a break through this resistance level here, then we could go higher. But at the moment, there does appear to be a bit of a cap around about $58.5. And certainly there does appear to be a little bit of weakness. And maybe given the fact that the oscillator is overbought, we could actually slip back first before we go up again. Certainly worth keeping on that little price range there that's starting to develop on the four hour chart. Let's quickly go back to Dollar Canada for you, Colin, because I know that you probably want to have another look at that. It's been a pretty neutral response, isn't it, really, in terms of the CAD chart. What would you say is the likely, what's the risk there, that we go back higher or we continue to drift lower? I think we're going to drift lower here, Michael. We've had a, even with the failure, or even with the US dollar rallying, it popped up from, I'm looking on a miniature, it went from 12380, popped to 125 even, failed at the 125 round number and started to come back. That's actually a lower high than those three candles there at 126. And it's already starting to drop back. So it took the worst that they could throw at it and still couldn't even get through 125. So that's telling me that there's one minute, so you see the spike down and the spike up and now it's settling back into the middle again. But basically that's like, anything that bears could throw at it, it took and still failed at the lower high and around number. And so that's looking to me like there's a pretty solid top forming in there. Yeah, it looks like it's pivoting around the middle of this moving average that I've got on the chart here, which is around about 120, hang on, 124.45 give or take. If I can actually keep the mouth still for long enough. Yeah, around about 124.45 give or take there. So there's a bit of a pivot going on there at about 120, between 124.40 and 124.50. So certainly worth keeping an eye on that there. While you're listening, ladies and gentlemen, if there's any particular market you'd like me and Colin to have a look at on your behalf, please feel free to use the chat facility and sling a question over because this isn't just about me and Colin basically chewing the fat and talking about the markets, this is just as much for your benefit as it is for us. So just been asked about the US 30, so let's go and do that. And again, it's a similar sort of story, I think, with respect to the S&P. We're pushing back against these series of highs through 2015, January and the beginning of this month. Let's have a quick look through that there. 17,900, yeah, between 17,950 and there's certainly a barrier there. And for me, I think we're still in a range here, Colin. I'm not really convinced one way or the other that we're ready to push to new highs or new record highs at the moment because when you look at the earnings and you look at the strength of the dollar and you look at the potential for a rate rise, essentially what you're saying is how strong is the US economy to be able to stand, to hold stock valuations at their current levels? And I still think the jury's out on that. I certainly don't think that we're seeing very, very good jobs growth. And yes, we've seen a fairly positive average early earnings figure, which is fairly positive, but will that in itself be enough to prompt the Fed to raise rates? I'm still not totally convinced by one data point. Yeah, I still think they're going to, it just is a general long-term program of, they need to get interest rates at some point back up to 1%, I think, just to give them some flexibility. I mean, one of the reasons why banks like Canada and Australia and Norway have been able to step in and cut rates now the way they have over the last few weeks was because previously they had raised rates a little bit to give themselves some room to work with. So I think eventually the Fed's gonna have, they're gonna want to do it just for their own operations. And I don't think a 1% interest rate would kill the United States economy. What would it do to the dollar? Probably run the dollar up close to 100. I think the Europeans continue with their QE, which you would expect. We're already at 94, 95, I think you could see 100 even on that, let's say over, towards by now in the end of the year. Okay, I've just been asked about the FTSE 100, the UK 100, and are we ready to break to new highs yet? Let's look at the price action around the levels we saw earlier this week. Certainly there's still a barrier at 6,900. I don't think anyone can dispute that. Let's get rid of this line here, we don't need it anymore. What we can do is stick this horizontal line in through here. 6,905 still appears to be that proverbial line in the sand, but even if we get above that, 6,950 is the all-time high. What's gonna take us above that? Is it gonna be more stimulus in China? Is it gonna be a rebound in commodity prices? Or is it just gonna be straightforward QE from the ECB when they start printing next month? I think at the moment, we've still got a natural barrier at 6,900, but what I would say is that each subsequent dip here is starting to get a little bit shallower. We had an early attempt this week to get above it, we failed, I think with all the uncertainty with surrounding grease, are we gonna push to new highs? I think we'll struggle to get there. I think as long as we stay above 6,000, the longer we stay above 6,800, the more likely it is we will eventually push higher. But at the moment, I wouldn't stake my mortgage on it. Yeah, the 6,900 has been looking pretty formidable there. And then there's an all-time high and 7,000 where I'm never kicking in. So you're into that 100 point, pretty serious resistance band there where you could peak above it, but you may still take a couple of times before you get through. And I look at the stochastic. So on the one hand, if you look from the beginning of the month, you've got basically an ascending triangle forming of those lower higher lows, which is positive. But on the flip side, you've got your stochastic's over-bottom rolling down, which is negative. Now, this is interesting looking on it. It's a four-hour chart. So there you've got higher lows on the other side. It's a little better in terms of the stochastics and the momentum. It's almost a megaphone pattern. Is it a diamond? It is, isn't it? It looks like a megaphone or a diamond. Yeah, interesting. There's certainly something going on there and it's certainly worth keeping an eye on. But I think if you were trying to figure it out. Yeah, I think the market at the moment is trying to figure out which way to push this, but it certainly does feel that the market is probably starting to get a little bit short. So we could get a spike higher through 6,900 to 6,935. The key question, I think, is what's going to be the catalyst to drive it through 6,950? And I'm not sure what that catalyst would be given what's going on with respect to Greece at the moment. I still think that there's potential for a massive accident, a Grexit, unless one side backs down. And at the moment, neither side looks like doing that. So it's really a question of what a potential impact the Greek exit would have on the rest of the markets. And that could be, you know, our next little black swan. So on that, Michael, do you think that, I mean, obviously we've seen over the last few years any kind of trouble in Europe has sent capital into things like gold. If capital was to start leaving Europe, could some of it be finding its way into the UK or is the UK too close to the United States? No, it's definitely finding its way into the UK. If you look at UK gilts and the yields on that, the yields are at the lowest levels that they've ever been. Certainly with respect to gold, this is a little bit of a concern for me. The fact that we've rolled over and it's coming back down below the 200-day moving average as well. So I think maybe there's a little bit more in terms of legs with respect to this gold price decline. Maybe we'll come back to 1233. And the results? Look at the declining highs here. That doesn't really bode well. We broke to the top side. We didn't actually get to my minimum price objective. We got to 61.8% of it, but it does appear to be that we are now starting to trade lower. So if we drill down onto the four-hour chart, we can actually draw a line through the highs here. So first of all, we need to break this downtrend. And the only way that we're gonna be able to do that is if we break back above 1275, 1280. And at the moment, we don't look as if we're doing that. We're in a nice little downward channel at the moment. And the momentum does appear to be pointing towards a slow decline towards this 1230 area that are highlighted on the daily chart here. So I think with respect to the FTSE 100, sir, the jury's out on that. We could squeeze higher, but I'm struggling to find a catalyst to really push us through 6,950. Certainly, I think that any short positions are gonna start building up around 6,910. And I think for that reason alone, I think we could find dips well sought after. But what's gonna be the extra catalyst to drive us through that? I'm not 100% convinced about that. I certainly wouldn't stake my mortgage on it. So is there anything else, ladies and gents, that you'd like us to have a look at before we sign off? I think we've pretty much... Have we covered everything? I'm hoping that we've covered everything. I think we've covered all the mean ones, that's for sure. I think we have, yeah. Okay, well, listen, if T-bond. So you want, with a 30-year, or the, I'm getting asked to hold hosts and stuff now, crew WTI, T-bond short, okay. So you want me to do the 30-year, I'm guessing that's what you mean by the T-bond. They're probably gonna be pretty much of a muchness because the yield curve's fairly flat in terms of US markets. But again, I think you've got a similar layout through here. A nice little potential reversal pattern forming on the T-bond. We look at that low there, or you could even draw a line through here. Could even argue that potentially we've potentially broken lower on the four-hour. If we look at the technicals and the oscillators on the T-bond, I'm gonna use my slow stochastic. It's one of my more accurate ones. What, not that one. That one's just a little bit too sensitive. Slow stochastic I want. That's just too noisy, that one. Okay, so we've got this one. So for me, the T-bond is near a key support level. It's been trading sideways. And at the moment, it does appear to be finding a little bit of support around about these lows around about 148, 148, between 148 and 149. WTI is probably gonna play out on a similar way to Brent, which I covered earlier. Not quite looking out of this downtrend that we've been looking at over the course of the past few months since the end of September highs. Colin, I can hear a lot of background noise. Can you sort out your audio, please? So we've got a downtrend line here. Yeah, it is. Potential bearish candle there, but the fact that we've actually broken above the highs of the last two days makes me think that until such times as we break above the highs that we saw earlier this week, the risk remains still for a little bit of a pullback on WTI in the same way that we have with Brent. And before we potentially break higher, but certainly think that the risk remains towards the upside at the moment with respect to oil prices, simply because we've had such a long decline. All right, I'm getting asked, what else have I been asked? Let's see, we've got NASDAQ, NASDAQ. Let's look at the NASDAQ. There we go. For the last little while, it's been pretty range-bound between, yeah. Yeah, again. 4,100 and 4,300. Yeah, we're looking at that, and you look at the line through the highs, still resistance through the highs, and we actually haven't got back above the January highs either. So again, it's going to take significant effort, I think, to get back through these highs. So for me with respect to US markets, it's really a question of how much more upside is there relative to what we're seeing in Europe? And I think for me, yes, you can talk about the QE from the ECB, how much of that is going to leak out. I think a lot of that could potentially leak out into the UK and the FTSE 100, simply because if you look at the FTSE 100 and the NAS performance relative to the DAX, it's underperformed quite significantly. So therefore, there's certainly much more potential for upside, but at the moment, it's going to take a significant amount of effort to get it through that 69-10 barrier. Okay. Right, well, I think that's pretty much it, unless you've got anything else you want me to cover, Colin? No, that's great. I think we've really gone through everything well today. Okay, cool. Well, next week, we've got our honest debates, which is on Thursday at 3 p.m. So if you want to join me and Colin next week on Thursday, you can just look it up on the education section of the cmcmarkets.co.uk website. Otherwise, thanks very much for your company this month. And if we don't speak to you next Thursday, we'll see you pretty much same time, same place in March, where hopefully we'll also find out what the next ECB rate decision is, but also find out whether or not that jump in average earnings was a one-off or symptomatic of a new trend. All right, thanks a lot, guys. And as I say, we'll post this on YouTube. Otherwise, we'll see you again next week. Thanks a lot. Thanks, everyone.