 Before we get into today's podcast, we just wanted to take a second to pass along our condolences to the family of Mike Taglier as most of you know tags passed away with a weekend due to complications from COVID-19 tags always came across as someone who cared about others and whether you knew him or not. He treated you with respect. He will be missed by us and by many. So take some time today if you could do others and take care of yourselves. We are sending love out to Mike's family and everyone at fantasy prose and everyone else. That's a lot of people who tags positively impacted across the years. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire dot com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com joined here as always by Brandon Godula. He is the managing editor for number fire dot com. We are breaking down week number three going through the big takeaways from this weekend brand. And I think this was a week where our retool process of trying to be thin in our player pool and trying to be concentrated with a lot of things was the right way to play things because the running backs we were on happened to do well. And I think that it's good to get that confirmation early on that the process based way we're handling things is at least correct. Yeah I mean you can spin that honestly any way and kind of kind of the thing to keep in mind is the way that we're approaching DFS for the NFL Slate this year is simply kind of a higher higher risk approach. Yeah that's what we're getting out with the smaller player core but all the research that you and I have done just shows that you want to make it matter whenever you are on the right plays. This week we got that I played for running backs like that's it. Just for running backs and yeah if they if they bust they bust but at the same time if I have 10% or 20% of every running back the the the literal probability of hitting on a nine player line up just it goes down so much. So that's a big part of our process if that's not for you that's not for you but that is something that I worked out in our favor this week. And those four were Derek Henry Austin Eckler Saquon Barkley and Alexander Madison and the I guess it's kind of a bummer is that all four of them paid off but two of them didn't score touchdown so they still paid off despite not scoring so it's kind of a it's a little bit of like okay what could have been you know had had they found the end zone but honestly like you know it's a good week regardless I maybe I'm just being greedy in wondering what could have been with those touchdowns but either way I think it's just good to get confirmation that we're handling things the right way in terms of our process for NFL DFS we're going to break down all the key takeaways talk about the usages that some backup running backs got this week because that is our headliner week number three and get you set for week number four taking a look ahead at some injuries taking a look at some guys who got role changes some return some injuries like no doubt that can we'll talk about all that in just one segment first the biggest game remaining in week three is the only one that's the Monday night matchup between the Cowboys and the Eagles Fandals making it even bigger by giving new customers 30 to one odds on either team to win simply download the Fandals sportsbook app today and bet on the most anticipated matchup remaining of the week. 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Let's dive into our headliner here from week number three which was backup running backs who played big roles and I think that Thursday was a precursor to this because we saw chuba Hubbard take over for Christian McCaffrey obviously that sucks we love Christian McCaffrey don't want to lose him again but at least chuba Hubbard was in there a lot played 38 staffs after McCaffrey left on Thursday compared to 10 or 11 for Royce Freeman if you count penalties and non plays. In those snaps chuba Hubbard had 10 rushes and five targets and 76 yards and scrimmage. He also had five of 11 red zone opportunities so carries or targets there. Royce Freeman had five rushes one target 25 yards and scrimmage and two of 11 red zone opportunities so Christian McCaffrey going to miss a couple weeks now Brandon the Panthers are going to the Cowboys next week based on what you saw in week number three. I mean that I should have had this pulled up a little bit slow today but the total should be fairly high there. I know that the we not up. Oh yeah. They played tonight. Actually we did this. Just kidding. Oh it is. Well it's the most anticipated matchup of the week we left. What's the spread there. I'm sure it's pretty large. Four and a half. Oh people just don't. I know I people don't respect Dallas yet and like I I financially will be in a bad spot if my if my perception of disrespect is yeah is misguided so let's go Cowboys. Well I guess like good defense for Carolina short week for Dallas. Oh yeah it's like a five day rest or four day rest differential. Yeah that's kind of part of it. I would assume that's true. So they'll probably be able to keep it closer which would be kind of a big thing although Hubbard ran that 30% route rate which is nice to see or has a 30% route rate I guess. So I would probably put Hubbard in at that in that matchup probably like 67 or so. Yeah I was thinking 7000 just because I do think that the role was pretty good not perfect obviously. And there is some ambiguity so I was okay with 7000 and Chewbacca Hubbard for week number 4 Jackson at $6300. That's fair. I don't think that's like oh my gosh I need him in every line of type of thing unless we get like something to change. But like that's a respectable salary that I can feel good about I think. Yeah that's probably one of those where it's you know we want those tight cores but I think he would make sense in game stacks and I know for a fact that if I mean other people might not like Dallas that much But I know you and I love Dallas so I would say Hubbard in game stacks but probably not a whole lot of one offs unless we find out that you know we haven't even looked at the slate. We don't look at salaries yet for this. But if we find out that he might be the only low salary back with the role then that changes things. Yeah I would bet that I'm a little bit higher in him than you are but that's I think that we're you know it's good to still have some degree of skepticism just because like you know they did sprinkle in Royce and they get a full week to prep and stuff like that so just keep those things in mind. One back up running back who got a massive workload this week was Alexander Madison he was basically Dalvin Cook he had 26 carries and eight targets I turned that into 171 yards he had 44% of the red zone chances. Dalvin should be back this week based on the way people were talking about him over the weekend and so like we don't probably need to But if Cook misses time down the line Kenny and Wangu may actually be healthy by that time which would change his dynamic but I think the brain of what the overall takeaway for me is I had a lot of confidence in Madison going into yesterday based on the way they used him in Abdullah in week number three or week number two when Dalvin left a couple of times I was confident there my level of confidence has increased if we get more time without Cook in the future. Yeah I mean Madison's kind of you know we at Number Fire have done research on not handcuffing your running backs in season long leagues it's just not the best strategy but he's kind of one of the few exceptions to that rule I think because whenever Cook inevitably misses some time unfortunately because I love Dalvin Cook. Madison just basically becomes Dalvin Cook light. I wouldn't say Chuba Hubbard is going to become Christian McCaffrey light to quite that same extent but I think Madison yeah is kind of a lock button whenever Dalvin Cook is out. I think the difference between Madison and other quote unquote handcuff running backs is that we know he's the guy like we don't always know that and that's a big difference so like that's part of the reason why we discourage doing that is because you might be wrong and then you get a zero basically Right and even sticking with Hubbard like he's going to have a good role but how much might Freeman mix in that kind of stuff we don't really have to worry about that with Madison. I think if you give someone that like I think Chuba is pretty talented based on what he did in college so like I think if you give him like a role similar to what Mike Davis had last year that'd be pretty fun. He wasn't that high of a draft pick was he? No but like I was concerned like not concerned. I was also concerned that he went back because like he probably could have left after his junior year and he went back and I was confused because like he's a college DFS super so I don't know if that taints everything. He does yeah but I'm with you yeah I like him but I was surprised that he went later than I was. Same here I have a high opinion of him going to week four though. Son of Michelle played 73% of the Snapson week three of Daryl Henderson out 20 carries and four targets. It didn't result in much yardage but like you don't expect that against the Bucks because they're good so let's say Henderson can't go in week four they are facing Arizona that game going to be fun. What would you do with Henderson or Michelle in that scenario? So 73% of the Snaps like you said 54% of the routes. I have him at an expected Fandall point output for week three of 16.7 but he had just the 9.4. So that's really just speaks to his role. So salary that's a game we're going to love. I know that with that total 55. 54. Okay. So yeah for Michelle salary probably like 72 if he's going to play 75% of the Snaps. I think 72 is right because it does seem like I think that it's kind of analogous like maybe a slightly better version of Antonio Gibson. In two senses in the sense that it's a better offense but also in the sense that he's going to play like 6 percentage points more Snaps than Gibson will. So I think it's pretty good role and that's worth $7,200. So I think that I'd actually agree with you a spot on with that salary is only two and he's $5,800. So I mean maybe Henderson can go but like I don't know if that happens. Yeah. I mean at this point I'm going to just jot down in my notes to future self if no Henderson plays Sony Michelle. Just check Rams running backs basically because that could be that could be really fun. I think getting confirmation that that role is Jake Funk did come in for some passing game situations but like he's still got four targets and that's what we need. And you can be much more okay with that at a salary of $5,800 compared to $7,200. Right, exactly. Like Jonathan Taylor. Wow. We'll talk about that later. How dare you. Peyton Barber was featured in the Raiders Backfield with Josh Jacobs out. Sure. Barber had 23 carries. Six of those were in the red zone. He went for 111 yards and a touchdown out of five targets and it's kind of weird that this happened. It's like a better role than Josh Jacobs. Yeah. He played 57% of the Snaps and Kenny Drake said 43% and Drake was like still there. He was playing maybe that's partly because of overtime but like what? Yeah. What? Yeah. So I mean I think. Oh they're not in the main slate next week. Thank good because they're facing the Chargers and you want to run the Chargers. So thank goodness they're not in the main slate. Yeah. That's the Monday night. That also means no Austin Neckler. Bummer. Well they just played Monday night already didn't they? Baltimore wasn't at the Monday night game. Week one. I don't remember. I think it was Sunday. Yeah. Monday was the Rams Bears game that week I think. I think you have it backwards but either way. Okay. Kind of weird for the Raiders but yeah I think the thing for me is that whenever Josh Jacobs returns on the main slate I'm going to have even less confidence in him. So that's kind of the big takeaway for me. Not that I'm using Peyton Barber but that I'm not going to fall into trap. If you were looking desperately for a positive for Josh Jacobs which I'm not because like I don't want to use him either. But if you were looking desperately you could say oh they lost confidence in Kenny and Drake and don't want to use him as much. Therefore Jacobs is a better could have a better role. I don't think that's the takeaway. Just putting that out there. Finally Trace Sermon doesn't fit the trend because we're talking about dudes who back up running backs who got great roles. His was fine. He played 60% of the snaps. Just 10 carries and three targets. Kyle Uscheck was in the backfield quite a bit as like a running back as opposed to his usual like you know Swiss Army knife role. Sermon didn't do much to solidify that role for when Elijah Mitchell gets back which sounds like it could be next week because he was doubtful as opposed to out for this week. So I feel like we should have no confidence in Trace Sermon entering week four. Do you agree? Yeah I agree. Uscheck 66% of the snaps. Sermon 60%. Uscheck also had two red zone carries, two red zone targets. Sermon just one red zone carry. No targets. No red zone. Not ideal. Someone with a lot of Trace Sermon in best ball slash season long. It ain't great Bob. That is that is for sure. But overall I think an encouraging week for backup running backs getting good roles. So keep an eye on Chuba Hubbard to see what we can do with him and then Sonny Michelle as well. It seems to be the two guys to monitor heading into week number four. Let's dive now into some other injuries that impacted the week three main slates starting with AJ Brown. He hurt his hamstring and missed most of the game and nobody took advantage. Not a single player on the team. Even Julio Jones had more than four targets. Julio played 51% of the snaps. I'm guessing this is just me guessing here. I'm guessing it's because they were in a positive script. He's not a good blocker, but he also ran just 15 routes compared to Nick Westbrook. Akini had a 77% snap rate and 22 routes. Jester Rogers ran 15 routes. I still have some confidence in Julio confidence. Not the right word. I still think positively of Julio, but like there was a pretty rough role when they were in a positive script, which is not encouraging. And I feel like it could be spread out behind him and also losing AJ Brown could hurt this offense in general. So I feel like everyone loses if AJ Brown misses time for Tennessee. What about you? Yeah. I mean, I bring this up a lot now, but it's important because it's easy to forget. Taking AJ Brown off of the field hurts the offense. It should in theory lead to volume for quote unquote value plays, but doesn't help the offense. And you need the offense to be moving the ball and be in scoring position for that to matter. And if that's going to be lessened, I know Tannehill had I think three touchdown passes and was decent himself, but that's not something that we want long term. And one thing I did notice is that the Tennessee's one score pass rate through the first three quarters fell from 55%, which is already pretty low to 47% this week. So their goal might be to lean back on Derek Henry until AJ Brown's back. So that's one thing that I think we should be monitoring. And the tough part is too is it may be more rush attempts for Derek Henry, but like it also increases the odds are a negative game script. It decreases the touchdown expectations. So it's kind of a bummer across the board. So hoping AJ Brown is healthy. They get the Jets next week, which means a Corey Davis revenge game, but B, you know, we'll probably have to be on Julio, but like it's not going to be an ideal situation. I don't think despite the good matchup there. Well, we're sorry for Julio in that, in that spot then like 62. 67. What would you have said? I probably would have said about 63 because of that. I don't think they'll have to pass the ball a lot. And if he's going to run like 15 rounds, that's. Yeah, like that's problematic. So it's fine. Like he, you know, he got some catches, but like, you know, it's just, I don't know. And just with how this is important, how the Jets offense looks and if Elijah Moore is out, they're already out with Kai Bekton, like their good players are getting hurt. Like that's not good. So we need to lean on that Titans defense. Let up some gibbies here. Yeah. Also for my Zach Wilson dynasty shares, please save me. Daria Slayton and Sterling Shepherd both hurt their hamstrings for the Giants and ruled out for the entire game yesterday. Use rotation at receiver. Kenny Gallaudet and Kaderius Tony led in snaps, but neither guy played more than 69% of the snaps. Tony led with 28 routes. Gallaudet had 27. They had said going in the Gallaudet's conditioning was not up to par. So like maybe that was part of the reason why here. Collin Johnson had seven targets. One of them was downfield. Collin Johnson's actually kind of fun. So I thought that was exciting. So I'm going to talk about targets. Tony had three. So does this just muddy things up too much for you? Or with an extra week of conditioning, can you trust Kenny Gallaudet if Shepherd and Slayton missed time? So they play the Saints next week. The total is 43 and a half. No, I know the question doesn't always have to be for next week, but I think that it's relevant for this situation because there is going to be an offense that I only want to target in the right spots. This isn't shaping up to be necessarily one of those. There's seven and a half point underdogs with the 43 and a half point total. If I was better at math, I could probably tell you how low that implied team total is, but it's going to be... 18. Okay. I have it on my sheet. I didn't do math. Yeah, that's kind of problematic. And Collin Johnson, despite the seven targets, it's just the 46% route rate, which is promising. You want high targets per route, but you also want overall routes. Yeah. So I think I would just go... I would stick with Gallaudet here and hope that the conditioning improves for him. Not going to use... Yeah. Do you know the first salary I looked up based on this? Gary Braywell? No. St. St. St. St. St. St. St. No, I can't... I should probably stop making fun of Daniel Jones. Like, he's playing better and now he's got bad situations. That seems mean. Daniel Jones in a negative script against the St. St. St. St. St. St. St. St. St. Bummer here James White hurt his hip and was carted off the field the backfield Mostly irrelevant after white got her Brandon Bolden played 46% of the snaps He had four targets, but three carries for a negative one yard Damian Harris played 31% of the snaps and Had just six carries which was tied with Mack Jones for the team lead not great two targets for Damian Harris JJ Taylor played 13% of the snaps. He had one carrying two targets. I Really surprised to see Brandon Bolden get that kind of work and I don't know if it'll happen again, but it does I think that the bigger takeaway for me Brandon is that There's no path to passing game volume for Damian Harris like legitimate passing game volume If James White gets hurt and they go to a special team or over and no disrespect Brandon Bolden Who's been like yeah, right especially for a very long time, but like if they go to him over Harris That's like the biggest red flag you can imagine Yes, so the 18 routes for Brandon Bolden according to next gen that next gen stats I should probably clarify 18 routes for Bolden 13 for Harris 8 for Taylor Like you said it really is just a matter of like that's really damning for Damian Harris Especially with the offense overall never being one that we want to target. I Mean Mack Jones did throw the ball downfield 14 times He was not particularly efficient on those Prairie yards like yeah Like I'm not talking about like the root. I'm talking about like Mack Jones just like Chucking up like Chucking up prayers and hoping it hoping it comes down and it did come down usually on the ground Went deep 14 times three of those are caught by his team one by the other so good ratio there it was Like I was I didn't like Mack Jones initially because he wouldn't go downfield and now when you take a downfield that was bad So maybe you should go back to being boring again. I don't know Yeah, I mean he's up to An 8.4 yard a dot which is half a yard deeper than The NFL average, but his efficiency is really bad overall I actually kind of had a thought yesterday of I know whenever the team cut Kim Newton and we're turning it over to Mack Jones Everyone got really excited for this offense to be better than it would be or more fantasy friendly at least I haven't seen that. I didn't really buy into that. So I don't know if I'm If I'm gonna be writing off an offense for the whole season because of a slow start that everyone else liked I don't want to pretend like I know more than everyone else here That's not what I'm getting at. But do you think there's a turnaround coming or do you think like? I mean like Joey Myers has 25% of the targets now. He has 33% of the deep targets. Yes, but who else in this offense Oh, no one okay, try to talk myself into one guy Cuz like it feels like a Corey Davis situation. It's like any positives you could maybe spin for a Corey Davis and bring back stacks. I Know we're spending time on the Patriots now But I was really thankful for us switching the recap format side and we didn't have to go over the Patriots Well, I mean like I think Myers at least he's relevant But like I just don't think they're gonna play in the games I want to target because like the defense is good. The offense is terrible. That leads to low totals I don't want to stack hotels, especially a receiver in a low total game. So although his role is relevant I don't think this team will be relevant Well normal distinction next week. It's the Brady revenge game Against this team, but that's Sunday night. So Imagine imagine the Patriots on son on a single game slate that you kind of have to figure out. I mean God Brandon Bolden MVP. No Before we get into that juju sister left of the rib injury after 32 snaps for the Patriots dealers who came in Shorthanded because they were already thought Deontay Johnson and what happened was Chase Claypool and Najee Harris got absurd Rolls and James Washington played a decent amount If you look at the snaps here Chase Claypool played 91% to 81% for James Washington But the usage is 15 targets for Chase Claypool 19 targets for Najee Harris for those were in the red zone Our colleague JJ Zachary's I guess boss is probably more appropriate Sent us a slack saying that that's the second most targets running backs got in the NFL history and like Initially when I was watching the game I was like, oh wow like they're they're trying to navigate their way around this bad offensive line by getting Najee the ball in space And I thought it was I thought that was really cool And then I was like, oh no, this is the only offense they have I came up from being cool to be like. Oh, wow They got a bench Ben. I don't know if that's like a fair takeaway, but like it was bad man So like Najee Had 52 adjust opportunities I don't remember ever seeing a number that big in the time that I've been logging this He had 142 yards in scrimmage. He had four of nine red zone chances. They were all targets He had no carries inside the red zone It just again seemed like they were scheming the ball Which is good and that could translate even if if juju and Deontay are able to come back but I'm just curious this offense is so bad but the The volume may be so concentrated. How do you balance that? How do you view Najee Harris and Chase Claypool going forward? Yeah, so I kind of was pre tilting to you and in our in our body JJ Slack I was like, you know, where where can we go with this? I don't know I was like, you know what? I'm on these four running backs and it feels like Someone in that 7,000 range that we just didn't really have a whole lot of interest was gonna have a huge game And Harris once more played 95% of the snaps But one thing that I did notice was he played I Saw him a few times out wide And according to next gen stats, he played 60 of 73 snaps in the backfield seven from the slot and six out wide that is for someone like with his build and Ability that I think more the 90 plus percent snap rate. I think every week now is awesome But if they're gonna get him the ball like in space or at least can't like and if he has to be their secondary receiver That is phenomenal. So I'm very intrigued by Najee. I will say James Washington did have a pretty good role with multiple red zone and multiple deep Targets. No, we've seen him flash. No, I just wanted to throw that out there. You may have I've not With Najee Are you more horrified or impressed that he scored 21.2 fandal points without a touchdown? You could be impressed because 21.2 without a touchdown is amazing. We love that We love guys who can pay off without a touchdown, but the fact they scored 21.2 on 52 adjust opportunities is horrifying. So are we more Impressed or horrified by this? I think horrified The reason I didn't really want to play him was the offense. Yeah, and And they scored 10 points against the Bengals. Yeah, so like Again, I bet I bet the Bengals win total over. I have a high opinion of them. He was six and a half so that's not that I have a penny but like What what what's going on here? I mean, so I guess two things I mean Harris does have Eventually some touchdown regression coming but he it he is yet to Eclipse 45 rushing yards and he's had 16 10 and 14 attempts. So it's not like he's Up at 20 carries per game, but that's Concerning what we know the offense. I even I know the offensive lines bad and that's a lot because I don't know a lot about offensive lines But this is again Just one of those spots were like, yeah, Najee Harris might get fed But you take Deontay and Jude even juju off the field This offense is gonna get worse and that's not gonna help him score touchdowns They get Green Bay next week and that's not a good defense, especially against the rush So name that star for Najee given all this I know it's gonna go up. Yeah How he was 7,500 I think yeah That salaries probably gonna be like 8400 this week 82. I think that's fair like it's I'm not gonna actively like Build around him at that number, but like I get it. I think it's fair Yeah, I mean, I don't I also don't know if I'm gonna be that's not a game I'm gonna be stacking. I don't see the total up for that one. Oh, I will You will Oh Aaron Jones. Come on. I was so mad. He wasn't on the main slate last week Like let's let's let our boy back into our lives I'm not gonna stack that game, but I do think that like she's viable I was trying to wrap my head around like why you would stack that game. I chase Claypool 15 targets Let me see what his He's $6,500 so he didn't increase to 96 yards again, it's not efficient, but like, you know, I Don't know. I think it's similar to Claypool. We're like, I'm Impressed but also horrified at the same time and like that's I don't know. It's it's rough man This offense is you said the word toasty and I think that that's appropriate You know Naji had a 7% rushing success rate on 14 carries Where were the successes I watched a lot of that game. So I've actually I've actually found that Successful carries are very strongly correlated To rushing fantasy points just because I mean rushing fantasy points are just the formulas very basic And that's probably why he should have been expected to score 24 and a half Fandal points. So he wants to defend it like 30 if you're not gaining Yardage on the ground. Yeah, I mean Like again, we have to like be Into the volume, but like my goodness just bad He's it three Mason six Free Mason Rudolph. I hate Mason Rudolph. I can't stand him, but I really want him to play Gosh, he's got a 20% rushing success rate on the season That's bad. Yeah, let's talk about more bad tea Higgins is out to the Bengals offense This is good. It did revolver on Tyler Boyd and Jamar Chase Boyd had six targets chase on five That was out of just 18 targeted throws Which is weird most because the Bengals didn't have the ball like the sealers if you can give 34 targets to get to two dudes, obviously they have the ball a lot The Bengals gave all three downfield looks to to one of those two guys to went to Boyd Wanted chase they split the two red zone targets. They were still run heavy though They had more runs and passes on early downs in the first half Their early down first half pass rate is 54% which is much lower than it was last year and Joe Burrow was healthy And I think it does hurt the Alec would chase even if Higgins continues to miss more time But like he's playing well and again, we talked about that like sometimes that matters Maybe if you're on Delmore doesn't like usually it does matter if you play well, so I feel like Chase or burrow you mean playing well No, I said chase, okay, I'm just clarifying cuz burrow has been bad. It's an important clarification They played Jacksonville on Thursday night and like I think that Chase's role is good But like it's it's not as bad as the Steelers where I'm like I don't want to like touch this offense, but like it's not an ideal situation either No, definitely not ideal that much is certain the There's always gonna be some sort of like Fear of missing out with Chase just because he's got the four touchdowns through three games but Eventually, he's not gonna score touchdowns and then there's not a whole lot behind that if Joe Burrow is gonna play it. I haven't I think bottom five in adjusted Yeah, bottom five in adjusted Expected points per drop back That's just not particularly good and you mentioned the the pass rate declining. I haven't been a 48% Pass rate in once one score situations this week before the fourth quarter. So yeah, it's not great. Not great I'm kind of wondering if they're worried about burrow too. That's leading to this, but not sure not sure could be KJ Hammer got hurt in the first half of the Broncos and didn't return. They were already down Jerry Judy They didn't have time to throw They didn't have to throw much I guess because the Jets were the Jets This would further trim the target tree to like, you know, Coral and sudden Noah Phant, etc, etc And to Patrick, but it's also gonna lower the projected efficiency of the offense Tim Patrick did get two downfield targets in Sunday I have this view in my head of Tim Patrick being like this like low a dot guy But it's a dot last year's actually like 12.5 that might have been because it drew lock But like, you know, it's not a terrible role for Patrick They're favored against Baltimore next week, which I think is weird Uh, but like what's your view of this offense if we assume hammer misses time in addition to jerry duty That's probably a game that i'm not gonna Touch a whole lot. Um, I bet it The ravens money line is plus Or minus one minus one four. Yeah, I mean that's More appealing the I mean you you talked already this season about how Uh, you typically just see players make perfect line-ups with higher totals than 44 and a half. Yeah, um It you know, these are the types of situations historically I would try to dig into and talk myself into a tim Patrick at a value salary, but Yeah, you just have better Options so i'm not really going to sell myself on this offense at all Yeah, you could go with the tim hattrick tim Patrick or go with like a manny sanders and like the game We talked about on on thursday and just like go with that like you can get good Lower sour receivers and better games. Um, I have the ravens there by two and a half before adding in week Three data, they'll probably get bumped down a bit, but I still think I would bet them I have minus one of four Let's go through some role changes that occurred in week number three and uh, some fun ones These are good things. These are positive things. Say quant barkley got fed in week number three Played 84 of the snaps. He finished with 30 Adjusted opportunities, which is carious plus two x targets. He had 94 yards in scrimmage They're on the road against new Orleans last or next week, which is a really tough spot We talked about how we aren't enthusiastic about that offense, but name that salary on say quant for this week Um, so I usually do like a Snap rate plus 10 or something to kind of get a baseline once it gets up to 80 80 plus I kind of scale that back, but I would probably say like 84 Um, I think that'd be fair for the role I think I do him similarly to alvin camara this past week where like it's a good role But it's not a desirable game and not a desirable offense in general and he just run 8 000 So I think that's you know, probably appropriate for say quant and he is $6,900 again Nice nice I don't want to I mean I guess matchup, but like I probably should yeah, I guess like That's probably Very matchup based. Yeah Um, which is fair. I mean because like I bought mine down for the match up too. So yeah Well, I think Joe mixon was what his salary was 6,700 this week against pittsburgh That's a good cop. Yeah, kind of kind of similar. Uh mixon has a fantastic role Um, barkley's getting that after a week one. Um, so I think that's fairly similar I wasn't really on mixon didn't burn me. So yeah I mean I guess there are worse places to go. Yeah, I think But that's always low enough to leads make him interesting Whereas if he were higher sourd, he wouldn't be so I'm just excited he's back. It's it's fun. Yeah, I mean now we got what? What's chuba hubbard 63? Yeah, michelle's 57 He was 58 58. Yeah, sorry. Um Now it's like seguan at 69 or like chuba hubbard at 63 Probably chuba because of the game, right? Like that's how much does the game matter? How much do you really feel confident in in hubbard's role? but that that's I mean, hey It wouldn't it wouldn't be weak for nfl if we weren't talking chuba hubbard versus seguan parkway Wolf you are correct. Oh no Beckham came back to a nice role on sunday. The browns didn't do much because Uh, the justin fields experiment didn't go well. Uh, but odell had nine the 29 targets are 77 yards we were Hesitant I would say on odell entering the week. Uh, so what's your confidence level on him going forward given that he did come back to a good role? Yeah, I mean you gotta have four downfield targets. Uh, 51 percent air yard share for him 144 total air yards. Um I think that's fantastic Uh, I think that with This team right now it's nick chubb in the right situations other his rushing success rates 27 percent. That's not ideal um kareem hunt, I think is a beneficiary of needing more Uh receiving work with those seven targets 44 percent route rate two red zone rushing attempts Uh for him compared to four for for chubb. So I think this is one of those like it's a very narrow tree of options anyway Um, I guess maybe austin hooper if you're like desperate at tight end But I think arrows up on odell back home for me arrows also up on kareem hunt But I don't know if it's just me, but I always every time I see the the browns on red zone I feel like it's not going well I just feel like it's hard to shake that feeling. Yeah. Um Odell's Catch rate over expected was plus 9.7 percent according to next gen stats The problem is is expected catch rate was under 50 percent. So like it kind of seems like it's like I don't love it. I haven't seen for the odell can get it which seems like to me that They haven't quite figured out how to integrate him fully in this offense yet So I'm feeling good about it. I'm not feeling great about it. I think is the way I'd phrase it I I think that he's definitely A guy we can consider using But especially next week Against the at the vikings. Oh, baby Kevin Stefanski revenge game. There you go. Got that one 52 and a half point total just a one and a half point spread That's nice. Yeah, that's gonna be a good game I know it might be rush heavier than we'd like but like that's gonna be a fun game for sure jonathan taylor's red zone rule slipped away That's something I talked about in week one about how hey, you know taylor's gotten all the red zone work and then week three is like nope. He had um 86 percent of the teams red zone carries entering the week and 10 percent of the red zone targets But uh, he had one red zone carried an ahem hinds three in week number three Taylor ran 11 routes compared to hinds 21 hinds let it snap 31 to 28. So I think this uh Confirms last week. We talked about hey his negative script roll is still not great and They're two and a half points against they're two and a half point dogs against jacobi brissette next week Which is not ideal. Carson wence also not ideal in this this game So if you're if you're gonna lose work in a negative script and you're tied to an offense that seems kind of likely to be in negative scripts That's not ideal No, um, this is like I jonathan taylor is kind of my new, um Like I don't know my new I guess derek henry. Um, I'm past that with derek henry, but For me with jonathan taylor, I oh like with taylor hasn't really burned you that much to not be super in on him I think that's the difference My henry can burn you it hasn't really burned you that much to not be on that taylor Yeah, but I'm saying like derek henry's always been the guy. I'm like, no, I don't want to use him because of These concerns I'm past that with derek henry because the ceilings there and because that's actually getting a little bit better for henry Um, even if it's not totally gone for taylor, we're looking at like He he just might be out on like on the sidelines on key Key drives red zone trips. That's really problematic. So yeah I can't get there. I think with jonathan taylor and if he scores twice So be it but I if you're off the field for the other 50 percent of snaps the odds that you're Getting to like 25 vandal points. That's also lower. So I just I'm not there But I would be interested to hear like where you would value like what what salary would you be? He has to be somewhere in the six thousand range. I was gonna say there's no way there can be a seven in front of his name no if like Let's say they are at home and facing Who's a team that's like kind of feisty, but there's no shot they get a lead on you What is a good example of this? This could be a there might not be an example of that Detroit showed some life. Yes Detroit's kind of feisty if he is at home All of watch your words if he is at home facing Detroit We're like, oh, that's kind of not the worst game on the planet But also like you don't expect to try to get a lead Like there, you know, I'll pay seven thousand something for him, but like no other script. Am I gonna pay that given? Given the issues in his role. Yeah, he's 6600. I think he'll probably wind up being One of the optimizers preferred like backs Ish you we'd prefer a safe one over him I would 69. Yes. Yeah. I will make sure. Yeah, sure By a good margin Giovanni Bernardo is the bucking year's lead back against the Rams probably due to the script. He had no carries But he had 10 targets He had a 54 percent or 45 snap share Leonard Fornette played 37 percent redacted played 16 percent So I feel like there are no takeaways here I feel like it's just kind of like I don't want to touch the buck's backs no matter what do you agree Yeah, I mean, I think Bernardo was out there a little bit before the game Was away from them. He did get hurt Late, but I don't know the severity the issue the the thing that it brings me back to though is um, just No, basically with this backfield. That's kind of uh, why I think it was relevant to bring up hard pass I agree brandon. I uke though back to having a pretty full-time role for the 49ers He was second the team with 39 rounds run debo sammel ran 42 george kittle ran 33 Additionally Kittle has just one high leverage target all year long so far either downfielder in the red zone He had 92 yards on sunday, but i'm still kind of down on him despite that as far I uke He had three red zone targets and one deep I still prefer debo in this offense. He's still getting some deep work, which wasn't there previously But he's they're using him in more diverse ways now, which is good I uke is I would say the word is relevant for him going forward and they face Seattle next week. So I think we'll be talking about I you there as being a guy we could consider name that sorry for brandon I uke and also a debo Samuel and george kittle Let's just name them all against Seattle and then I'll get to Jimmy garoppolo and Nope? Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope? No So I youk Had three end-zone targets um Dropped a Which should have been a touchdown for sure, um Boy, this is this is tough for me because this is not an offense. I think about Historically, I think I'm pretty high total. Yeah Debo was what's like 6,900 last time we saw him on the main slate. I Think I think so. I'd probably go like 70 73 for Debo I you feels like a he feels like a lock for like 66 And then kiddle Lots of concerns there honestly I'd probably say 7,000 I'm lower on everyone I guess Okay, so I have Debo around like 7,000 so we're pretty much in line there I you I would put like at 58 Honestly Cuz I saw some concerns around it 89% of the 89% of the routes I know like it's like he's competing with Debo He's competing with kiddle in a an offense that wants to run if they can't run Maybe that's you know, not as big of a concern, but like I I feel like If they were more past heavy sure I'd be in but like they don't really want to do that So I think 7,000 for Debo 58 for I you can like 64 for kiddle is that is that mean? Like I just need high leverage. It looks he's not getting them All right, I mean, okay, so I uke is 5700 so you were basically spot on there perfect He both 69 still perfect and kiddle 67 just kind of split the difference I think for us. Yeah, I Was just higher on I you because of the Benton targets were you out in kiddle? I said 7,000 now like we're like what's your sentiment around him at that, you know, I don't really feel like I like Eventually he'll burn us Yeah, it's just inevitable It seems like a lot of it's gonna have to be run after the catch which yeah He had a nice at least one that I remember if you're gonna have anyone rely on run for the catch be Debo Samuel and George kiddles like that at least that's good. That's a good thing They can do it but I'm pretty sure that was like I uke's big thing to come out, but I mean Honestly for me like with kiddle. I don't I don't have that fear of like That's got to be Kelsey your kiddle a tight end or else you could get like toasted I Don't like his expected Fandal points per game is 8.3. Yeah Because of his underlying data Kelsey's facing Philadelphia next week We get kiddle against the Seahawks What else is on there for tight ends? Yeah, it's we don't have wall or next week. You got Hawkinson Mark Andrews back in a bad game Kyle Pitts is 58, you know, he disappeared Copets still on the team. Like can we confirm that he's still there Dawson Knox? The bill's number one receiver is $5,600. So like, you know, there's there's some dudes I like how everyone just kind of a lot of I mean there was there was some some disc Disharmony I guess on Kyle Pitts, but Every who's like basically the the tight end for tight end five like locked in For first season long. Yeah, some people saying that rookie tight ends aren't worth it But it's been kind of rough. I think a lot of what goes on the offense, but yeah I think I think that the the path to him being bad was Matt Ryan being dust and we that's happened like that But he had three targets this week. He had eight like past couple weeks. So I get 86 and three Like that it's just yeah, you would think get him just Throw him like I said, I was grinding all this film from him in the first season. It's one is one play Free Felipe Franks. Let Felipe Franks play quarterback. Then we can talk just like then we'll talk just throw him the ball out there Like they did with Jalen Waddell and the end zone for a safety like it was the worst play call I've ever seen But like give Kyle Pitts some more of those to get him up to at least five targets in a game That's all we asked for Let's move to situations to monitor things you're keeping an eye on what is something that's on your on your brain heading into week four So One thing that jumped out was Rhonda Moore And his routes he ran 13 routes. You and I talked about this event inevitably he was going to have a bust game Whenever the targets didn't come on the the few routes that he gets for context Deondra Hopkins ran 33 routes and had six targets AJ Green 29 routes and six targets Christian Kirk 25 routes eight targets and then again 13 routes for more two targets one yard You can't you can't pretend like AJ Green does not exist if you think that he's not good. You can't You don't No matter how you feel the coaches and who plays that's what's gonna matter So it's just silly not to be super concerned About AJ Green's role while he's healthy right now Well, I think the reason I was the first to AJ Green is I didn't think there was a yardage upside He proved me wrong. So like I was a firm. No one AJ Green I'm a less firm. No a spongy a spongy. No, yeah AJ Green and like, you know, if you can get yardage I'll use him like that's that's that's all I need He can he still can apparently Michael Pittman had a 33 percent target share in week three 35 percent a week two so Up to 27% on the full season because he was at 12% a week one You and I just kind of have this running tab on Colts past catchers and they have not had relevancy for years now But Pittman bucking that trend. So I like it. I like that. Give me give me Michael Pittman over Jonathan Taylor I don't think this matters, but she could be reset pepper Jalen Waddell 13 targets and Mike is sticky for 12 percent was horrible, but He's favored over the Colts next week. It's at least something Yeah, that's true Mac Jones this 14 downfield attempts that we talked to I have New England upping their first down Downfield pass rate to 25 percent up from 2.4 percent. I know I know it was forced But it's maybe maybe like maybe they're just like it's not working with the down or the the check down stuff So at least there it on see what happens Two downfield Roles that were really relevant to me coley-framon had 84 percent of Detroit's areas and we three on 10 total targets 3d Dishon Jackson a 39% area I'd share with three downfield targets. I'm not gonna play him But that kind of hurts me with like Some of their other tertiary pieces trees potentially. Yeah, speaking of that and just Quickly because we're always looking for tight ends with some sort of a pulse Tyler Higby within that same team saw his route rate Decreased to 67 percent in week three. He was running 88 percent weeks one and two That was one of the biggest declines among relevant tight ends for week three and then Dawson Knox Jared Cook and Cole Comet all saw route rate increases to 80 77 percent and 79 percent respectively Those were some of the biggest tight end route rate increases So just something to keep in mind for the the lower salary tight ends Are you buying into Dawson Knox because I like this offense, obviously and I'd like to get there the problem is I know X targets will go to Digs X will go to easily X will go to Manny Knox has four three and five targets. So although I like the offense a lot. It's still a 10 percent target share and Like that's that's fine when it's like a 47 hour sour when he's up in the mid sick mid five to thousands now And that that makes it tougher for me So I think the way that I approach tight end is it probably well It could either be really different or like absolutely the same for other people But I think a lot of times we're looking for your extreme value at tight end and just hoping for Like two red zone targets and say that's that was the checklist I try to find higher target shares and kind of treat tight end as like a modified receiver roll even on Fandle Where it's not a full PPR site and we need touchdowns So Knox at that salary is not going to do it for me He would have done it maybe for me at 4,800 But if you can't like if tight ends can't really don't have a clear path to like 15 Fandle points 14 Fandle points, which is like 80 yards in a touchdown He can score twice is he gonna get to like 80 yards very often probably not so I was trying to figure out a sour and actually searched digs. They are different people Yeah, I think that Now the sour is up. I'm okay Not being it's I think the the role is still too flimsy Stick with the bills from my situations to monitor talking about the running backs Zach Moss edged ahead of Devin Singletary played 55 percent of the snaps He had 13 carries and three targets for 91 yards Moss also had 32 percent of the red zone chances Not enough where I'm gonna use them in DFS yet But I think it's not worthy that he's getting closer to DFS relevancy because again I want shares of this offense and Moss could get me that not there yet, but it looked good I wouldn't be shocked that role continues to move up But don't don't fill out lineups under the assumption it does so but keep an eye on it James Robinson's role got a smidge better Sunday. You had 15 carries and six targets, which is 27 adjust opportunities They are 134 yards for Robinson 38% of the red zone chances still not super inclined to trust him because Carlos Hyde also got work But at least um, it's it's an improvement for James Robinson from where it was before I just don't use this offense and they're on the Thursday slates. I don't have to but like, you know If you're playing single game, it's worth noting that his role didn't get a bit better I'm still watching Cordero Patterson, you know, it was fine on Sunday He had a 42% of the snaps that was an increase and where it was previously He had 102 yards from scrimmage Didn't get any red zone chances while Mike Davis had one So I would say even though Patterson had some good yardage I would say it's mostly status quo with him. The good thing is he's still wide receiver eligible and It might not be the smartest thing, but I will always be tempted to put a fourth running back in my lineup by putting that receiver, you know Hey, man, like For anyone for anyone just listening. I'm kind of shaking my head. Oh, okay He's just let's say out of a $6,000 wide receiver. You get 7.7 Fando points 21.4 and 13.2. That's not bad. That's not bad 13.2 with no touchdown last week. Sure Just say it Henry rugs roll is becoming more palatable. No, no, no, let me go back. You said about a $6,000 receiver Yeah, I mean like I just I don't I don't I just don't see it with him yet like enough I just I don't I don't know just just move back to talk to me about Henry rugs Henry rugs 24% of the team's e-targets. He has seven targets and back-to-back games in terms of yardage Like receiving yardage two of rugs for highest marks between last year and this year have come in his past two games So Brandon is Henry rugs on your radar yet given his big play upside or is it still too thin of a role for you? Um, he's been on the radar just honestly for the sheer fact of There are some glimmers of hope for Derek cars like downfield passing rugs is going to be the Main beneficiary of that especially if teams are trying to limit Darren Waller So he's like on the radar, but he's gonna be He specifically would be someone I would Only put in game stacks Not someone I would really look for as a one-off just because I need that the game to be back and forth if the Chargers Raiders game was on the main slate. He would be kind more Kind of like a core ish level play. He'd be the second best run back option behind Waller in that game Yeah, and I wouldn't play any any other Raiders like that's kind of right. Yeah on the single game slate there's gonna be Plenty of discussion for him next week, but you know in a different game Like against the Texans or something. I'm not gonna like want to have a one-off exposure to Henry rugs. I agree Okay, so let's move now to some philosophical changes for this week and looking a lot at like teams of new quarterbacks in the first game for the Texas that Davis Mills They're early down first half pass right is 50% that is pretty low Mills average negative point oh six passing that expected points per drop back So they were run heavy and bad both those things are not ideal for opposing teams so It's very possible all Texans games may be cross-offs until to rod Taylor is back What's your thoughts on the Texans with Davis Mills? Well, are you crossing off the bills next weekend? Yes 17 and a half point favorites What about heavy home Favorite running backs They're pretty yeah, they're pretty overrated we talked about that I think Zach Moss is gonna catch some popularity this week And I don't think you should yet Yeah, did we to say what his salary was? I was I didn't think he was I don't think he's getting enough work to be DFS viable yet But he is so what would you tell me what you would because you talked about Moss more in detail? I'll see you watch every bills game as a bill's mega fan so they do have like Josh's jacks like it's a cereal at the local grocery store. I'm kind of tempted to buy some as like a joke But like they also have It's a Pilsner called Pils mafia is very very creative Love a good Pilsner. I've never had that one. So yes, Brandon your favorite. Um, I He's 6,000. I think that's fair, but I'm not gonna use that number Yeah, I mean Like Davis Mills was better than expectation. Was he yes literally no compared to what Carolina usually that's up. Yeah Okay, but like expectation versus so okay, I know I'm just saying Marginally I have actual expectation in here Let me tell you what I expected as the former authority on David Davis Mills. I was called David I expected negative point oh two passing that expected points for dropback. He's a negative point oh six He underperformed and is dead to me David Miller Nobody knows more about David Miller than me Just I think that they're like we need competitive fun games I don't think they're gonna be in any until Tarad's back. Yeah, I agree. Okay, Justin Fields first start didn't go so well I had 29 drop backs nine of those were sacks. He completed six passes Obviously that is not just him. Obviously Matt Nagy is adult who should be fired immediately, but It wasn't good. It was wretched Um What did you see in this game Brandon as far as like how the Bears handled this thing? Honestly, I think the Bears are Bears games are cross offs until Andy Dalton's back You're probably right, but like that makes me so sad like I was like you're not I don't think you're wrong It was rough like and there's really not a lot of Detroit next week. So David Montgomery system Speaking of the feisty team that might look like they would get out of head Lions are playing things brilliantly this year. They keep the tank alive. They look competitive They keep their coach looking good. Honestly, like the Lions are the biggest winners of 2021 so far Yeah, I would say so that totals 44 and a half close three and a half point spread I don't think I would have any players in that game Unless the Andre Swift salary is like surprisingly low He's like $7,500 this week. So he's 77. Oh my gosh Montgomery 75. I think Montgomery is actually pretty viable at $7,500 Here me Put my handy dandy spreadsheet and pull up the weekly weekly running vacuum for David Montgomery Just run the ball. That's that's my spreadsheet Okay, so David Montgomery had every red zone opportunity week three all two of them He had four to nine last week, you know, that's not too bad. How He had 118 yards in week one against the Rams. He had, you know 28 we adjust opportunities last week. Most of the Justin Fields. Who was the quarterback on week one? I mean week two was with fields. They had 20 adjust opportunities I'm saying we you just said week one. I was giving you the relevant data And they're facing the Lions who are not as good as the as the Browns. They're at home That's I think Montgomery's in play. I don't at that salary It's 7,500. I need to feel like a running back. Give me a back. Give me a back. Give me a back Give me a bet who we've bet and David Montgomery versus in week three. I like head head to head. Yes head to head right now So what I was going to say is if I'm if I'm allocating 7,500 of my salary to a running back I need to feel like if he gets me 25 fandal points. It's not a surprise Yeah, I wouldn't think that's a surprise. I think that's expectation project You think David Montgomery is baseline projected for it Project him for just give me the otherness. Give me the under No, I'll just take the under if that's our bet. Um, David Montgomery or Aaron Jones No, 7,400. No, you know, I like Aaron Jones. It's a stupid bet. Um, David Montgomery versus Jonathan Taylor Yeah, I was so glowing about Jonathan Taylor cream hunt That's honestly closer. It's a good game I'm not I'm not gonna go you're not gonna trap me into this Especially um, and also Jim's thrown out. I've offered someone uh for a bet uh with a salary of 7,400. Yeah, but you offered like Compared to a running back one of the best offices in football. That's not fair I'm talking about Antonio Gibson. I'm talking about Antonio Gibson. Chris Carson. I hate He loved chris Carson I'm just talking about David Montgomery relative to his salary Of 7,500. I think that's too high. I would rather play Aaron Jones at 7,400. I would too It's Aaron Jones. That's not a hot take But guess what you're offering me guys head to head who are saluted a thousand lower than him That should kind of make my point If you if those are the guys you feel cool, I'm trying to find a stupid bet for you. I'm not trying to like Get ahead. I said Antonio Gibson. He's right by him Okay, I'll do uh I will conditionally do David Montgomery against uh, Antonio Gibson if you give me Derek Henry against, uh, patrick rickard That's not the same. It's a four to our difference But I don't like I'm not gonna play Antonio Gibson anyway Okay, we're gonna find a bet for David Montgomery this week. It can be over under Fandall points like let's say 25 you set the line I said that's a projection. That's not a bet. Like, you don't bet at the projection. There's variants in there. It's touchdown variants. Yeah, okay Okay If if you can get David Montgomery to 25 Fandall points is baseline projection Give me odds David Montgomery scores 20 points. What are the odds more time in the week? Give me one when you run your sims get to 20 points for David Montgomery and I will Potentially never never bet something about knowing the odds So I will get back to you once I know the odds But I want to hear them first based on your simulations at the the sports book of brandon gadoola Yeah, the gadool book At the gadool book and I will let you know if I'm taking it Uh boy, I just I don't see how montgomery gets to 25. He's got a score. No, I said 20 20 20 20 20 is our baseline for No, you said but I said I said 25 is a projection. I want to bet 20 though. So give me the odds on 20 Come back to me. I'll see what the odds are and then I'll decide if I want to bet it I love how this went from if I'm allocating 7500 of cap to a running back I need to feel like it wouldn't be surprising if he gets 25 and then you said that's his baseline projection And then you're betting me at 20 20 fandall points So if they if the overrunner is 20 fandall points, like that's not enough at 7500. That's the original point. I still stands Who who at 7500 has like has it's like minus money to go over 20 points That's the thing is it's not a good tier again So i'm not gonna force myself into playing david montgomery. Alvin chimera is not minus money against the giants in 9 000 The this is just evolved into something completely is give me the odds once you run your sins And I will decide if I want to bet it Give me the odds based on your sims and I will Torch your sims with my amazing knowledge of david montgomery because the feet of seiquan barkley The power of zikio zikio elliot. I was gonna say zik's 7 000 He's gonna play 85 of the snaps. There's no tony pollard on the bears though He's getting even montgomery is tony pollard and zik. So what else could you want? What else could you want? Who are you took some notes on? Who changed their philosophy in one score games? Who were the biggest movers there? Yeah, so i'm having pace update issues But I at least pulled one score pass rate through the first three quarters For teams that some big notes. I think are atlanta moving from 53 to 68 in week three Again, 53 weeks one and two combined. So I think it's a positive for calvin really who had four red zone targets this week It's kind of the only positive for calvin really at this point. Um, the rams From 63 percent to 75 percent Which is awesome. I know is dependent on the defense But I think we can trust that the rams are going to throw the ball a lot regardless and that they're going to do the Right thing depending on matchup, which is really fun cleveland went from 46 percent to 58 percent Which I think might speak to the impact of odell beckham on the offense Could be good for cream hunt as well And then new england from 63 percent To 74 percent. It's not enough Maybe jacoby mires. That's really it. But it's noteworthy Jacksonville really reversed their Approach 73 percent to 43 percent I think that kind of kills bring back appeal if they're going to try to run the ball whenever they possibly can Las vegas was kind of noteworthy 68 percent to 55 percent Only got paid in barber. Of course you're gonna run more Yeah, um, because you know derrick car's airing it out playing really well. You want to start establishing the run Cincinnati, I think we talked about yep And then tennessee we also talked about which would probably speak to the loss of aji brown But if they're just going to run the ball a lot, that's really difficult. Um in derrick hannery 10200 next week Who did they play? Oh the jet so yeah yeah That line is short. Um Yeah, I don't I don't know if it's wrong necessarily. I'm not saying this is not a raven situation. I'm like saying hey You should bet the ravens Uh, that is seven and a half. What do I have it up for adding in week three? I have it at 8.4 so Like the thing for the thing for henry that we're going to be staring at is There's a chance There's the thing the thing that I always try to think about what there can be is what are the odds that they're going to just be Seven to 10 to 14 points down or something like that within the first half that seems like zero But what are the odds that it they're up 21 does to nothing at halftime And the jets have no life and that's why we need to be wary of Games that they express. Yeah I think yeah, if it settles around seven and a half and stays there then okay, you know, that's fine But like I would still prioritize closer games. I think yeah, especially at that salary There's just not a whole lot of wiggle room for him exactly Okay, let's go to our notes to future me I think that for next week slate It's kind of similar to this one where there are some shootouts that we like we can feel good about those and potentially buy into them And potentially some under salary backs as well. So what are you writing is your note to future you for week number four? Honestly looking more at these totals already. They're in the spreads. There are numerous crossoffs Oh, yeah, there's like a pretty distinct divide between games that would you use a player in miami versus india? They had a negative salary like would you consider it then I would use michael pitman Had a negative salary Yeah um I mean honestly Jacksonville sinsey What's thursday? Oh, yeah, sorry. Um, Washington, atlanta Corey davis revenge game if it weren't for the cori davis revenge game and darry canary could be a crossoff Corey davis is guaranteed at least like 30 point. That's his projections 30 fan dual points Well, I know you're locking in david montgomery, but like detroit chicago. I might not have anybody I'll have montgomery Like I think I so I think my note like the giants and saints I guess seguan Yeah, I think my note to future self is uh don't Once more don't fall into the fear of value for these like low total games Um, and then also if darryl hinderson's outplay sony michelle Yes, that is the primary one because michelle be a lock button there. What I would say is more of a lesson than from week three than Something to look forward to week four is like don't be afraid to Stack the secondary shootouts like the ones that may not have this the highest total It's kind of like we talked a lot about bill's washington on thursday Yeah, I had manny sanders. I didn't have enough Like I didn't have antonia gibson. He had a really nice game Um, but like, you know be more aggressive with the second tier like the browns Vikings game next week the panthers cowboys game could be in that range I know the the panthers defense is very good But like, you know those could be games to stack so that and also the michelle thing and chuba hubbard We'll see on that one as well That is all that we have here for today for our week three recap As always make sure you are subscribed to the fandal youtube page We are here every monday at 9 a.m. And every thursday at 10 a.m. Recording our podcasts on air if you want the video side We also have it up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast branded if people have questions for you on twitter. Where can they find you there? I'm at kadula 13 gdu la 13 but one question for you before we leave Which were which wide receiver do you think has the highest fandal salary for the week four mentally? I know it's hard with all the teams, but Probably tyreek No, he's second behind Cooper cup Yes, cooper cup salary is 8600 dollars and tyreek hill is 84 And you know what that is totally fair for cooper cup like that's how good his role has been good for you cooper cup I've come around for all these touchdowns forever I mean he could They're gonna give him the ball four times in the red zone. He could feels like teams just kind of forget about it It's tyreek only 82 I know teams are like selling out to like stop him and stuff like that. He's got like two down games in a row I don't care I don't either but i'm just saying like you know, you're right. Yeah Good for cooper cup. We've come around. We've come a long way friend. We're now friends. That's friends cooper cup and I I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week. Good luck to you in week number four We'll talk to you once again on thursday to preview. That's late. This has been heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire