 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday, May 3rd. Welcome to May. This is Chief Mural Justice John Innsworth for Longmont Public Media Friday, May 5th is a full moon Rising at sunset setting at sunrise Sunspots are kind of tilted away from us right now. It's up for the solar cluster up here So a little quieter geomagnetic environment looking over the last week. I can't detect any change in drought at all So holding pattern Looking nationally a little bit a change in Montana, but not much just nothing really changing Let's go through my quasi animation of snowpack We zoom up through the entire winter season There's the peak date there and Well, should have stopped right there So yeah, it is definitely dropping. We're not up in this Way over normal but getting back kind of closer to normal, but it's still there So we're still way above the your median fantastic under 35% of normal snowpack And we did get a good amount of water Was bought this last storm would have been a lot wetter up north and it shifted to the south But you've got two to three inches rainfall rates around probe below and down here and that's great Those are some drought Crunchy areas so fantastic news there. Here's my severe weather Climatology animation and you can see it's getting quite close to us now We are definitely entering severe weather season. So like Thursday tomorrow We have a chance of thunderstorms and rain right now. They don't have a marginal risk for severe weather, but I'm kind of what watching for to see if that happens. So it won't be in the maps today, but it may be real So that is Wednesday Chance of convection you can see some convection happening someplace in the state But nothing big the nearest severe weather is down here in the panhandles slight risk and Big Bend area Then going to Thursday. We see chance of convection over most of Colorado See this little tongue of marginal risk into Colorado. That's kind of pointing at the front range I would not be surprised if that gets drawn a little closer if not get to the I-25 corridor tomorrow So we'll see Friday starts move out as dry air comes in Looking at Wednesday quite dry Thursday chance of showers Rain and thunderstorms a little bit of snow mixing the mountains Friday the Showers and thunderstorm chances pull up in the northeast part of the state We do have some fires up in Idaho, Montana and Western Canada and some smoke is now coming down So you probably noticed the sky looking a little more milky recently We had the cloud cover come in on Tuesday night from the convection the mountains and that mixed with smoke kind of knocks Stuff out. There's a pretty good fire in northern Arizona too, which I don't know how that can be They've had so much rain Over the next 10 days our normal high rises quite dramatically from 67 to 71 low from 38 to 42 And we have these chances of pulse thunderstorms in the afternoon Little dry early week, and then we have some chances of showers Into next week. So here's Tuesday's water vapor satellite with above normal precipitate Water vapor period perceptible waters coming up in a minute Then lots moisture up here got some dryness in the southeast and thunderstorms and activity in New Mexico, Texas For Wednesday the low doesn't move much and this actually has a name. It's from mega block We have east coast west coast trough and a big ridge in the middle This one's quite tilted so it's going to break down soon But these can anchor and not move east or west for a long time. So the air just flows through them and they stay Looking at Highlights, so that should be Thursday. I don't know why I have Wednesday. So this is Thursday with our storms sitting there and There's some hidden frames Okay, well Chances of showers then for next Friday We have another low coming by and next Friday we have another good chance and in between it's just a chance of some showers and thunderstorms Okay, so the next 10 days right the graphic being this was showing you the omega block But here is a low kind of pulling in the ridge starts to move out. So it all does become progressive. It gets moving On Sunday Monday, we have this little trough passing by to the north There's a ripple from Tuesday But looks like it'll stay kind of the north By Thursday this digs down to the south and then pulls up over the state Giving us our Thursday Friday chance of showers and storms next week Look at heat. This is red Temperatures are above normal for that spot on the map and blue or below normal We have the two troughs on the two coasts. So the two coasts are most part cooler and for most of this time We stay pretty warm east of the Rockies and out of the plains It really doesn't change much There's Tuesday and a Wednesday a little cool front comes through with that ripple passing to the north But it washes out pretty fast some thunderstorms down south We get a blob of cool as that storm comes out of the Southwest for Thursday Friday next week For most part above normal warmth. Let's look at water vapor. I got these reversed Perceptible water the greens are above normal atmospheric moisture and the browns are below normal There goes the storm on Friday into Saturday taking moisture with it So I'm wrapping around in the northern Rockies. There's some moisture returning Monday Not much it's all in the Northeast Then we get real dry air for Tuesday Wednesday. We have this River moisture way down here in Mexico and then that pulls some moisture in and really Moistens up the atmosphere for the end of next week Did you show a new map here? This is dew points surface dew points So the higher dew points greens and above are very moist for at least for Colorado and the blues and below are pretty dry Down here in northern Mexico. It's extremely dry air. So this is at the surface It's not just whole atmosphere. You can see we had moisture around for Thursday Friday I'm just gonna back that up and start because I had to do all that describing. So here's our Thursday moisture and Friday So very moist dew points and that pulls out a little bit into the weekend still moist still some showers possible Northeast corner, then we get dry air And at the surface moisture is never far. It's over here, Nebraska and Kansas and Northeast corner of the state Tuesday Wednesday the dry air at the surface moves in a little further and Then by the end of next week that Moisture comes back from the Gulf Extreme amounts of moisture out here. That's typical for the spring time and that gives us a chance of rain then All right, so let's look for these thunderstorms starting with Thursday Friday morning Shower is pulled through and each day. There's a little pop-up of activity in the mountains Just because there is some moisture around doesn't take much for a daytime heating to kick off from afternoon Stronger to but going to Monday Tuesday Passing to the north Wednesday, and then we get our next big shot Thursday Friday Right there and there It's away So for the next five days, it's the northern mountains may get some good water Very little on the plains here less than a quarter inch. Maybe a little bit more around Boulder Denver Snow is highest elevations in the mountains For the next 10 days mountains may be get much better moisture. We may get half inch maybe an inch nearby that would be nice and Snow just whoever gets snow gets a little more snow and that's it so 80s on Wednesday dropping down to the 70s and then lower 70s as the end of the week strong goes through Be keeping some chance of a wandering thunderstorm now and then that's below the resolution of that map Each afternoon just watch the West see if this guy gets dark. Remember lightning is dangerous So don't don't be excited about tornadoes and floods and things like that lightning can Ruin your day pretty bad. So, alright, so this is the beginning of a new month. We had our outlook for May April 20th See all the above normal below there and above normal here and then 10 days later they came out with another May outlook and It's quite different with more above more below there and it was strange for the May outlook April 20th just in the southeast us was at above normal chances of Presentation and dry in the Great Lakes and northeast and then they've 10 days later added the West Coast A lot. It's crazy and much expanded the Ohio Valley and upper Mississippi Valley dry and believe it or not over the next 14 days Places in the Sierra Nevada's with that cool trough are back to getting 20 to 30 inches of snow in the highest elevations So winter keeps on going out there. Yes. This is a new map. It's incredible Longmont leader broom food leader have frequent weather updates and great local news This has been chief meteorologist John insworth. Keep looking up