 Welcome traders to another Tickman Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 10th of October with me, Pat Triffy, Monday. Starting in the US, it's actually Columbus Day on Monday, federal holiday but the stock market is open but the bond market is closed. We will hear from Fed Speakers Evans and Braynard and then heading into Tuesday, we get the September NFIB Small Business Optimism. Last time out, 91.8 looking for a similar print this time out consolidating the near pandemic lows and the outlook really remains pretty clear. We will also hear from Fed Speaker Mester heading into Wednesday, September PPI, last time at negative 0.1% looking for a positive 0.2%, producer inflation cooling as supply issues begin to ease. We will also get the FOMC September meeting minutes. The focus really is going to be on that path of policy for 2022-2023 and we will hear from further Fed Speakers, Kashkari and Bar. Then heading into Thursday, the all-important September CPI, last time 0.1% looking for a 0.2% close attention on the core inflation given the August surprise. We will also get initial jobless claims, they are remaining at really depressed levels 219 last time out. We will also hear from Fed Speaker Bowman. Then rounding out the week on Friday, we will get September retail sales, last time positive 0.3%, looking for a 0.2% print this time, market consensus inflation and rates clearly are starting to weigh on consumption. We will also get the September import price index, last time at negative 0.1%, looking for a negative 0.1% this time, import prices are declining from those elevated levels. We will also get the August business inventories, looking for a 0.9% there, last time out we got 0.6%. Businesses are starting to rebuild inventory at a pretty robust pace. We will also get October University of Michigan sentiment, last time 58.6%, looking for 58.8%. Consumers still feeling the heat from those rate rises and obviously the inflation that is prevalent pretty much globally at the moment. We will also then round out the week with Fed Speaker Cook. So moving to the charts, dollar index, we held that 110.70, got the extension to the upside. We were looking at that 112.34 as potential resistance, exceeded that but we're holding the 112.85. At this stage, only a close through 113.36 would suggest we'll retest price cycle highs. Alternatively, what I'm actually looking for is a break of this trend channel support through the 111.80s, initially targeting that 109.50s high volume load and then down into the equality objective 107. 50s, moving to the eurozone. So in terms of data, Monday we get October syntax investor confidence, last time pretty depressed, negative 31.8, we're actually looking for a lower print this time. Negative 33, very dreary outlook offering little support to confidence. Then heading into Wednesday, we get August industrial production, last time at negative 2.3%, looking for a positive 1.3%. Tough start, Q3 obviously, weakening demand and a risk into year end of further deterioration. And then heading into Friday, we round out a week in the eurozone with August trade balance looking, well, last time at negative 40.3 billion, so anything in that area is going to weigh on sentiment with energy-related import value still really elevated in the eurozone. From a technical perspective, you're a dollar, really pivotal retest of the pivot at 97.30s. If we can hold there and get a move back through the highs, I would actually say at this stage we would be looking for a move through 97.90 to set up a retest of the high volume known, sorry, at 99.94, any loss of 96.63 is a significant development and would suggest that we will retest price-cycle highs and potentially break to the downside moving to the UK. In terms of data, pretty light on the data front at the beginning of the week, but heading into Tuesday, August ILO unemployment rate, last time out, positive 3.6%, looking for a positive 3.7%. The slack to become more visible likely into year end really in the UK. On Wednesday, we will get the August trade balance, last time, negative 77.93 billion. The deficit likely really to remain at a strong level given import values. That actually rounds out a day slate in the UK next week. From a technical perspective, what do we have? The advance that we saw off those 103 lows looks to be impulsive. While we hold 109.60s, I'm looking for a retest of that 115 high volume node to the upside. Any close back through 109.60 would be bearish development, suggesting that we will certainly take a look again at 105.40 and potentially back into those cycle lows and then obviously parity beyond that. Moving to Japan, what do we have in terms of data slate next week? Well, on Tuesday we're going to get August current account balance looking for 67.9 billion Opportunities in Asia and developed world demand is actually a risk for the Japanese economy at the moment. And then heading into Wednesday, we'll get August machinery orders, last time positive 5.3%, but we're actually looking or market consensus is that we'll get a negative 1.5% print from still finding footing amid reopening and supply risks. And that rounds out the data in Japan next week. So from a technical perspective, we are holding above this high volume node 144.68. I'm looking for prices to potentially extend to the upside. We want to see a test into this 147, the ascending trend line resistance. And on the weekly scale, let me just hold this back. There we go. 148 would be the ideal test. And from there, what we're watching for is bearish divergence in terms of the momentum studies and bearish price patterns to engage on the short side. I think we can certainly think about test back into the 144.70. And then that ascending trend line spot comes in 143.20s. And rounding out the data slate down under in Australia. What do we have? Well, Tuesday we're going to get the September NAB business survey. The conditions are actually pretty elevated. But are there any signs of slowing with this September print? And then on Wednesday, we will hear from RBA assistant governor. Lucille Ellis is speaking at an investment conference in Sydney. First day we'll have the October inflation expectations last time out of positive 5.4%. Elevated prints likely and well above the target band. Mirroring the actual inflation. And pretty much like I say that global situation where we're having this inflation contest for the central banks. From a technical perspective, whilst the Aussie remains below 64.30, I'm actually looking for prices to extend to 2,000 to get a test into 62.90s. From there though, I will be watching for bullish reversal patterns on an intraday basis to target a retest of the high volume node 64.95 to the upside. And that concludes the data outlook for the major economies heading into next week. We'll just check in, get a test of where we are with respect to sentiment heading into the start of the week and we'll use Bitcoin, which trades over the weekend. Looking a little bit heavy here below that trend line still at the 20,350 area. Looking for any test of 19,000. We'll see if we get bullish reversal patterns there with a high volume node just above. And we could look for an extension up into trend channel resistance 21,000. However, really important here, any loss of the support zone on the weekly scale at 17,750s, that'd be a significant development and we will be looking for that downside equality objective ABC pattern there, 12,185. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing October the 10th. As always, trade as planned, trade the plan and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.