 happens if Trump leaves the political stage? You run American issues take two. And today we are joined with our regular contributors, Stephanie Stull Dalton and Jeffrey S. Portnoy. And we're going to discuss exactly what happens. But before we get to that, I just want to spend a moment on Jeffrey. Do you mind if I talk about you for a moment, Jeffrey? Never. Never mind. I mind that it's only a moment, but that's okay. Part of this is to talk about our program on September 30 and September 30, we're doing a thing called Burning National Issues, Chicken and Egg. Legal chicken, legal egg. Okay. And you are part of a panel of G5, plus Avi Soyfer as moderator. And you're going to be discussing insurrection and beyond. So that'll be very interesting. And I will be standing around a lot of publicity on that. And we hope people go up for it. You want to add anything to what I said? No, I think the program sounds great. I know there's multiple subjects that are going to be discussed. And it'll be in greater time than the one hour, a half hour that we normally have. And looking forward to a very enlightening discussion. Who knows where the world will be in 30 days. So we'll just have to wait and see. Isn't that true? Yeah. Okay, well, onto our main subject. And that is, you know, nobody lives forever. Nobody stays in politics forever, even guys who've been in there for a while. And, you know, you have Trump who occupies, you know, half a dozen articles in every newspaper and some radio, you know, Sinclair Radio plays him all day long. Twitter has stopped him and so has Google recently. But the fact is that he is on our national conscience, our national conversation all day long. And also that includes Europe and Asia. The guy is probably the most oft repeated, oft, you know, outspoken public figure in the world. And he must have just logically, he must have a huge, you know, effect on national and global events because of that. And likewise, if he disappeared from the political stage, his disappearance would have huge effect on our national and international public conversation. So we're here today to examine, you know, what that might be. How would his departure affect America? Here on American Issues Take Two. So Stephanie, let's, let's start with you. What, what, what effect would that, would that have? He's, he's pushing 80. He may be off the stage any given Tuesday. What would happen to, first question, what would happen to his sycophants, his acolytes, his bollocks? What would happen to his base and his unthinking loyalists? And we sure hear plenty from them. Would we continue to hear from them? What a good question, Jay. And it would be a nice challenge to, to have it actually, thinking what it really would be like. I mean, presumably, we would experience some relief, some would experience some grief or, or, or feel a loss of that presence. But we have gone so far in this situation of six years of him in leadership and very, and most powerful in the world position of influence and unleashing all those that wish to, to be his acolytes that we will face much of the same thing from others as we go forward. And maybe there's another one to arise, perhaps not as strong, but I think that there, there will be those attempting to follow him in, in his leadership position, because that base is there to, to abscond with and to activate and, and to continue to build. So there's that scenario. And I'm sure we're going to come up with some others here on the show too. But I had to speak to that scenario, because it, in, in hopes that it would be a relief, it may not be, because we will go into more disintegration as people try to re resurrect, you know, what they had before in ways that, that will serve them well without him. There's a couple of factors working here, Jeff. And, you know, one of them is, you know, if you have a cult figure, the cult depends on the figure. He is their, you know, unabashed leader. They follow everything he has to say. On the other hand, in the case of Trump, you have a lot of people who like to be like Trump and think of some governors, for example, who would like to run also, if they could, you know, arrange it for president. So you have, on the one hand, you have the cult phenomenon where a disappearance of the leader disappears the cult overnight. And on the other hand, you have people who would like to be like him, like autocrats and liars and, you know, replace him. How do you integrate all of those problems? Give them all Kool-Aid. Jones Town, the specter of Jones Town. That's how they got rid of the branch of Indians. Hey, look, even people followed the person who succeeded Moses. I mean, you know, it's not like it's going to end. And I think people ought to be careful about what they wish for. Because the other two leading Republicans who were in the wings, frankly, on many of their social and political issues, are more to the right than Trump. So I'm not sure it's going to be something people really want to wish for. I mean, yes, you lose the demagoguery, maybe. But then you get a Pence, who's a right wing Christian fundamentalist. And what that means to issues like gay rights, abortion, etc. Or you get the Florida governor, who is Trump, but a lot smarter, and maybe not as evil. So, you know, I mean, yeah, you're going to have a small group of crazies who still have the picture of Hitler up in their den. But, you know, I just don't think it's going to be a big deal. I mean, you're right, you know, that he's occupying a lot of media space. And he obviously has a very loyal group of devoted followers. But that's not the first time. I mean, you know, Joseph McCarthy had a group of dedicated followers and they move on. They find another demagogue to lead them. And I think that's what we're going to find. Yeah, let's talk about the, you know, the people elected to Congress. And there was a thing on one of the on one of the channels on cable, where they had a sort of group photo of all the acolytes and followers in Congress, in office, in not only the Senate, but the House. And they were like, almost 20 of them. And we know all their names. We've heard all the names on a regular basis. Some of them stronger, some of them weaker, some of them smarter, not very smart, and some of them really, really stupid. And, you know, I put to you this question. Are they going to hang around? Can they continue to do what they've been doing? Or are they going to just run out of oxygen for the lack of Trump? They're going to be like Lindsey Graham. Depending upon the day of the week, that's what he's going to say. I mean, six years ago, Lindsey Graham had some of the most critical things anyone could say about Trump. And now he's, you know, following him like a puppy. So I mean, you know, you're asking Jay for politicians to be honest and to be consistent. I'm sorry. It's not likely. You know, these, the guys in the group photo, they didn't get there by accident. Trump had to recruit them. You know, he had to assure himself of their loyalty. He had to have them swear feasons to him. And he had to cultivate, by fear or favor, you know, their, their followership. That's, that's personal to Trump. Just follow, no, but it's not just follow the mafia. You know, I mean, when John Gotti got killed or went to prison and then got killed, it didn't stop the mafia. And you can go back to the five mafia families. They just replace them with the next in line, Jay. There's no difference. It's just that he's head of the mafia right now. And if someone were to shoot him tomorrow, they'd be a new head of the mafia. What's interesting is that in all these books being written, all, as you say, you know, he's occupying the headlines for six years already. And his MO is out there about achieving loyalty, about using fear and favor and corrupting people. So that somebody who steps in like the census from Florida, he's already got the playbook. You know, the autocratic playbook is out there. All you got to do is follow what number one Trump, the inventor of these loyalty tricks has done. So you're right, I would have to agree that it isn't that hard. You have to have a personality and you have to be mean. Then you have to be willing to spend the time at the expense of national interest to spend the time to cultivate the fear and favor relationship with all these people. And I suppose order order of business number one, if the Santos or Abbott get elected, then, you know, there's that telephone call. Hey, you know, Lindsey, I need your help. How about help me out? I'll make it worth your while and follow the playbook. I take your point. So Stephanie, we have the base out there. Arguably, it's half the country. And you know, if you met them and didn't talk politics, they would be, you know, American, Apple Pie, all that. Don't talk politics though, because then you run into this irrationality. But query it, you know, how would Trump's disappearance off the political stage, off the media, especially off the media, how would that affect these people? Would they be lost in the wilderness? Would they keep on going? Would they follow another autocrat like DeSantis or Abbott or somebody else to the far right wing? How would the base react? Well, I believe you're right. I see a lot of people in deprivation and they would be seeking a replacement. And in contrast to the Godfather, you know, there's no Michael Corleone among that group that followed Trump. So we don't have anybody that can come in with those kinds of ties that would make it, that would be strong enough to make it like a DeSantis or the others that you've been mentioning. But they'll settle for something. And but the point is, I don't think they even need the leader. This is one of the unleashed virulent virus that's running raging throughout the country. I mean, it's about Second Amendment. It's about all of those issues that the Trump has leveraged for them. And that they'll find other leveragers. And in that search, they will find the one that will start this whole thing over again. But we should at that point, as a country, have prepared ourselves better, maybe made some adjustments to our laws, our domestic terrorism agenda, hopefully can get fixed. So we'll be ready for the next onslaught, because it will come through any number of these means of virus like or the kid does come up and gets a following or that there is a DeSantis win or all the rest of it, whoever's going to be assuming that mantle. It'll give us some time. It'll give us some time to do the reparation. Where do we have time? People don't follow demagogues, unless one of two things happens. Either they're forced to by the threat of violence, use the mafia for that example, or they have some deep seated psychological issue that requires them to look to someone to control them. I mean, I don't want to be an amateur psychiatrist, but there's been plenty written on how is it that apparently normal people quote unquote, can follow some crazy individual on some weird platform. And we're not just talking about small numbers many times. I mean, I don't want to get into specifics, but look at religion. I mean, that's the number one culprit in people looking for a crutch. And, you know, I don't want to get into a deep long discussion as to whether, you know, you can equate Joseph Smith or Jesus Christ to the branch Davidians, but there's not a lot of difference in what people are doing. And unfortunately, there's 25 or 30% of this country that is craving for someone to lead them into the promised land in their view and give Donald Trump credit. He's been brilliant in that regard, just brilliant to get people that number of people to follow him regardless of what he says or does. So I think it's a psychiatric issue as much as a political issue. Oh, yeah. Well, you know, one thing that you haven't mentioned, but it's closely akin to religion, I think, is, you know, the division of the country along racial and bigotry. We have that. And he understood that. He played that. As any really pathological leader would, he played the divisions among the people. And I always have to find for these people, and this is different from the religion, but it's another part of it, the enemy, right? The enemy's the Jews. The enemies are blacks. The enemies are immigrants from Central America. There's always got to be an enemy that lets you get people to follow you. Because they think you're the person who will get rid of their enemy. So, you know, there's just a lot of people, millions of people who's lives are a shambles and they want to blame it on somebody, except themselves, right? This has always been the case. You know, if you examine the Spanish Inquisition, you find that Ferdinand and Isabella of King and Queen, who set Columbus on his way, of course, you know, they did not invent the Inquisition. They did not invent anti-Semitism, for example, in Spain. But they saw it as a possibility. They saw it as something they could cultivate and they could use to achieve and confirm their political power. Nothing has changed. Trump sees it the same way. And query whether DeSantis or Abbott or anybody else who got the job would likewise see it the same way because it's a truth of human conduct and to find escape. And to employ this technique of using it to achieve power. So, I totally agree with you. You know, it's the one, my life sucks because of you, not because of me. You know? I mean, that's what it is. You've got to blame somebody when your life isn't what you want it or hope it or need it to be. Let me throw this at you. You know, there are there are autocrats and there are autocrats. There are guys who are brilliant in this context and guys who are not so brilliant. If Trump's successor who, you know, emerges is not as good as he is in fomenting division and rest bigotry, racial hatred, the replacement theory, if you will, and all those things that he uses to achieve and confirm power. If that if that successor is not as good, Jeff, doesn't it just sort of kind of fall apart? Isn't that what would happen? I'm going to let Stephanie respond to that. I've said too much already. He's handing it over to you, Stephanie. That's one of the reasons it's not an easy question. It's very complicated, but Jay, you keep coming back to it. I hear you saying the key word I think here is the power. So, yes, so yes, they do serve to instigate all of the antagonism and hatred and jealousy and bigotry, but all in the service of that leader's power. And so that's the brilliant part of it that Trump has been able to do because it is a matter of empowering these other these other sides of people, the bad angels to get all of people to be bad angels and feel empowered by being a bad angel, the bad angels of their nature. And that then cruised to him as the leader of them, and they'll serve him to make him more powerful. So I think the power piece is what rides through this that intersects at all. And people people's worst instinct, you know, the worst instincts come out in trying to make themselves powerful in order to get past what are their their failings and their errors. But anyway, so so we've got those those big big concepts running through it. Some people crave the power like it like like Trump does. Let me ask you this, Stephanie. You know, it depends on how Trump leaves the stage. You know, there are an infinite number of ways he could leave the stage. This politics, that's life. But that that might result in on the one side violence, you know, the Lindsey Graham kind of dog whistle violence where people are offended by his departure off the stage. And on the other side, it might result in a reconsideration by the base of just how good he was. And maybe they'll take another look at the GOP, and maybe they ought to become more, you know, independent, maybe they ought to consider, you know, moving a little a little to the center. Which what are your thoughts about that? Are we how confident would we be about violence in the streets? And how confident will we be about people, you know, taking a fresh look people who are Trumpers now who are part of his base now, taking a fresh look and maybe, you know, maybe moving off the dime. Well, Jeff, you can take this but I mean, I'm not seeing any fresh look here. I mean, I'm not seeing any reconsideration. People are delighted to be where they are. They're in the best place they've been ever in their lives, these people that have been empowered. So that is not something we can expect to change or reset. What do we do? What what is Biden doing? He's starting to talk to us about it. So I don't know, Jeff, what do you think take that away? Well, look, there are two Republican parties. And, you know, one is represented by the list Chinese of the world who believe in the traditional Republican values. And then there's the Trump Republican Party. And unfortunately, the Trump Republican Party is based upon idolatry. It's based upon negatism. It's based upon racism. It's based upon division. It's based upon anti-democratic ideals. And at the moment, that's the dominant wing of the Republican Party. You know, and I guess what we're talking about is if Trump goes away, will the list Chinese wing of the Republican Party, of which there are less and less, be able to become the majority of the Republican Party. And, you know, that's the only hope for the rest of us. I mean, you know, it's not a Democratic-Republican thing. I think it's a Republican-Republican thing. And, you know, I mean, it's kind of curious, because if you look at list Chinese and her beliefs, they are very conservative. But she does, she believes in democracy. She believes in free elections. That's really what it's come down to. She doesn't believe in Roe v. Wade. Yeah, well, you know, I mean, but that's not unhealthy. It's not unhealthy to have a viable two-party system. You know, the problem is that one of the parties has been corrupted. And your question when you started the show was, will that corruption go away when the chief corruptor is no longer on the stage? And I don't know if any of us can answer that. I think he'll be replaced, but there'll always be, you know, those white Aryans in the mountains in Montana, you know, who are not going to let the feds on their land. I mean, that's not new. So, you know, the question really is, can we diminish the number to a manageable number? Because right now it's not manageable, right? Look what happened on January 6th or look what happened, you know, where people taking guns to FBI offices and, you know, that that's the problem. Roe is going to have a small number of crazies. They ain't going away as if Trump goes away or not. The question is, can more rational people take over that party? And, you know, I blame the politicians as you've alluded to. You say there's only 20, there's 20 complete loonies, but there's more than 20. Look how many didn't vote to impeach him or, you know, voted against the January 6th committee. Yeah, there are 20 that are out front like George and, you know, moron Lewis, whatever his name is in Texas, and Margueritella Green, who belongs in an institution. But you know what? Somebody voted for all those people, folks. Somebody gave them one more vote than their opponent. That's the scary part. We look at the newspaper and we see all this happening domestically within the, you know, the continental, well, within the country. And we forget sometimes that it's a global phenomenon we're talking about. Trump, Trump affects the world. And the Misha Goss. The world's given up. No, I don't agree with you, Jay. The world gave up on Trump even when he was president. And I think now the world looks at it in either laughter, derision or sympathy for what's going on in this country. I think world leaders never followed him except for North Korea and maybe Venezuela. And I think now he's become a complete joke to the rest of the world. The problem is it's not funny here. Let's assume that. Let's assume it is a complete joke and that reasonable men and women everywhere in the world treat the U.S. as worthy of pity, as the Irish Times wrote an article about. So the question I put to you, Stephanie, is would Trump's departure from the political stage have an effect on that? Would they like us more? Would they have more respect for us? Would they have more pity, less pity? I mean, you know, we do have, you know, he is the leader of the free world, arguably, like it or not. And everyone does think about him and refer to him, whether in pity or in awe or in fear. He's a leader of his block in Mar-a-Lago. Okay. That's the leader of the free world, Jay. Okay. All right. Well, whatever. In the space, the space that he's empowered. He's a tremendous power, tremendous political force, but for better or worse. And so, Stephanie, I put to you the question is, you know, how will his departure from the stage affecting? You know, he's got this very mysterious and questionable relationship with Putin. And, you know, it would affect Xi Jinping the same way. I mean, some strange way if Trump were no longer in the recipe. So, really, how does departure affect those powers? How does departure affect Europe, the EU and NATO? Would they be more sympathetic to us, less sympathetic? Would they be looking for a better relationship? Or as Jeff suggests, you know, would they just give up altogether? It's possible because right now they're very disappointed. They are disappointed in the American experiment going real bad because we have always solved these things. We put the lid on it in addition to solving World War II. So, we are in the eyes of our global neighbors a mess right now. And they're a gas. If we can't do it with all that we've brought to the world's dilemmas and have made it better, we now can't do it for ourselves in this crazy situation. So, I ask, I ask maybe literature and the philosophers, is this the human condition that it's what J.R.R. Tolkien gave us? I mean, what happened at the end of the Lord of the Rings? Everybody went back to the hobbit's house and had another feast and sat around and drank up the rest of the beer and the dragon was dead. But what really happened is they seeped into the mountains and they went to sleep under the ground and what happens going forward is that the rumbling starts again and the evil begins to come out up in another way. So, I'm kind of thinking this is something that we have to get, we owe it to the world to pick up our heritage from our founders and the other work we've done to get into position to be admired in the world for a while to get that admiration back and that respect and to do what we're here to do, which is to make it better and bring out the tools that can make things like this that handle. We've got to handle it. That's very aspirational of your Stephanie. But Jeff, here we are, we're at the threshold of the November 2022 election and certainly soon enough we're going to be at the threshold if we aren't already at the 2024 election. So, how would Trump's departure affect those things? Right now the Democrats ought to be thanking Trump for giving them a chance in November, frankly, because of the candidates that he has put into position to run in places like Georgia. I mean, in Pennsylvania. If it wasn't for Trump, there would be viable Republican Senate candidates who would have a chance to take back Democratic seats. But when he got behind the weirdos and got his 20% of the base to put them as the nominee, he virtually guaranteed a defeat and a win for the Democrats. I, frankly, think the Democrats should be thanking Trump for what he's done in supporting all of these crazies because, believe me, 55% of the people are not following these crazies. 20% are. You don't win elections general elections with 20%. If I were the Democratic party come November 6, and I've changed my view a little bit because I think the Democrats are going to do much better than people thought and I thought I'd be sending Trump a thank you cake right now, at least in the Senate. Well, now, Jeff, don't we call these unforced errors? So, finally- No, no, these were forced errors. These weren't- Unforced errors. And he didn't mean for these things to have this outcome, but I mean looking at it as part of the strategies we have to have in place that you have to wait and you have to find where these opportunities come up to go back in and leverage us back into position to go for the power and take it away from him. I mean, I mean, really, and this is not people leaders, is there anyone with an IQ over 60 that could vote for Herschel Walker? He's a hen. But that raises the interesting point. In the past six years, the country really has changed. Trump has accelerated that change. And kids who are 14 years older are now 20. Things have changed and arguably the country has been broken. We are a broken country. And so is there anything to suggest that Trump's departure would heal the country, you know, itself? Or would there be a vacuum such that the country's brokenness would actually dictate its future? Gus? Well, I think you're absolutely, that's brilliant because, Jay, if nothing is done, if that void is not immediately assumed to be the challenge to make things happen there, that will hold this force back, then we are soft. That's what I'm saying about we're standing here. I mean, the rest of the world is looking at us pitifully because we had everything and we've done everything and we've had bigger challenges than this. And this thing has taken us down. We got to stand up again. We got to stand it back up right away. And but in the meantime, take advantage of every what I'm seeing as an unforced error on the part of that side of thing. We have to go in and take advantage of it like five minutes. We can overstate all of this and where the country's going. You know, the bottom line is the country, we get up every morning and we go to bed every night and the country is still in one piece. It has a few wounds and, you know, we still have to rely on the system and we'll see what happens in November. You know, I think there will be a change when Trump leaves, but not in the issues that the country faces, the real issues. There'll be a change in attitude. There'll be a change in the anti-democratic movement among more than a few people. You don't have to go back hundreds of years. There's always been many times, not always, but many times a significant difference of political views. Barry Goldwater ran for president. I mean, Richard Nixon ran for president. You don't think that their views were conservative views, but they respected, well, Nixon a little less so, but they respected the democracy. The problem with Trump is he wants to be Putin, right? He believes that he wants to be king. He's made that clear. That's the problem. I don't think even the people that will replace him want to be king or want to be a dictator, but their political views on many of the issues are to the right of Trump. Well, as I mentioned before, you know, there's any number of things could happen to make, you know, to bring this scenario out. That is to get Trump off the stage and, you know, they could be as simple as health issues. They could be politically. Who knows what they'll be, but, you know, one thing that strikes me is that if he has a choice, he is not going to go quiet. If he has a choice, he's going to try to make his narcissistic. Boy, that's a brave prediction. Yeah, thank you. That's what you're really going out on the limb today, Jay. I'll tell you. But here's my question. There are several investigations going against him. And if he is off the stage politically, what happens? What happens to the insurrection investigation? What happens to the investigations in Georgia, criminal investigations? And for that matter, the civil one that's pending in New York, and who knows where else? What happens to all those investigations if he is off the stage? It depends how he's off the stage, if he's indicted. Yeah, I'm going to say, good point. Where is he going to be? There's a possibility. It seems like a long shot, why that is, but I don't know. Garland's saying things that he's going to be intriguing like anyone else. He could be locked up, locked up, locked him up. Would he be able to operate from there? He'd operate from there, Jay. Just like the mafia. Sure. Okay, it's time to wrap up here. Jeff, you know, you made some really profound comments. Do you have anything to add and summarize here at the end of the show? No. Isn't that wonderful when lawyers, you know, stop talking? Okay, Stephanie, how about you? I just have the glimmer of that little light at the end of the tunnel. It seems to me that we're now accruing some slight marks that are going to add up to something that's going to make a difference and then help send him on his way. There'd be no sync tech if there was no Trump. Just remember that. There'd be no American issues, take one and take two. And Chuck Crumpton wouldn't have the discrepancy. You'd be running cartoons or something. So be thankful. Okay, remember just like Game of Thrones, the next situation begins. So we would be looking to remember Animal Farm. We'll see if the pigs take over. Exactly. And that's the comment I want to make here at the end of the show is, and Jeff, you said we wake up in the morning, we go to sleep at night, everything seems to be okay. The system seems to be working. But you know, democracy is fragile. A social compact with 330 million people, you know, is fragile. We're not sure we really hold up in the case of a crisis. Just as easily the insurrection could have turned real sour, that could happen again. So you may wake up in the morning with a country that works and go to sleep in the evening with a country that doesn't. It could happen any day. Just remember, no civilization has lasted forever. As long as it lasts through my generation, my child's generation, and my grandkids generation, and their grandkids generation, but even Rome and Greece went away. So you know, even 300 yet, Jeff, come on. This is the tragedy of it. We won't even be on the rolls of the history of the earth. We can't make 300. That is why this is existential. We will be a nothing. I mean, this is the horror of it. If he takes down, we will not even be in the history. And all and all we'll have is the videotape of this show on YouTube to remind us when the aliens finally land, not that they haven't landed already, but when they come out and say, here we are, they'll be looking at this show to understand what happened. Thank you, Jeff Portnoy, Stephanie Stull Dalton. Thank you for this important and great discussion. Aloha. Thank you so much for watching Think Tech Hawaii. If you like what we do, please like us and click the subscribe button on YouTube and the follow button on Vimeo. You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and LinkedIn, and donate to us at ThinkTechHawaii.com. Mahalo.