 Hi, rai gael yma. Mae gweithio ym Mhlynedd, 30 wrth gyrsgón 8am, yma, inni London. Rwy'n dechrau'n gwneud hynny o'r hwyl ni'n gweithio'n gwneud hynny o'r hoffa ar y cyflawn. Rwy'n dechrau'n gwneud hynny o'r hoffa o'r hoffa o'r hoffa o'r hoffa, mae gwrs, yn ysbyt yw'r yma, yn y tynnu'r gweithio'r hoffa o'r hoffa ar y cyflawn yma, ein hunain o'r rhan o fynd i'r a bod o bwysig o'u cyntaf o'r gwaith yn y rhan o'r cyntaf, ac mae'n gwybod a'n gweithio i gyd yn ymdegwyd y ffordd o'r rhaid yn ddefnyddio'r hyn o'r gwaith i'r ffordd o'r gwaith, ac mae'n gwaith o'r gael dw i'n gwahodd o'r hyn o'r dda i'r bwysig, ac mae'n gwneud i'r cyffredig o'r hoffa ar y chart yn gyfodol o'r hyffredig o'r hoffa. Mae'n gwneud i'r euro o'u ddolar o'r hoffa o'r hoffa o'r hoffa o'r hoffa Give it to you just that newentiوم o' realise this chart back longer term, on an실u, but just drifting it to the lower month there you can see we've now just made a new low for the year for the euro automatically so if we just put this on the daily chart exam, remove everything you can see we're going to draw a horizontal line here we're now the lowest we've been since May 2017. So one of the articles we will focus on Felly, mae'r holl Genedig yng Ngher Maes byw i'r bro can holds Peir yn ei gael i ddweud, yn ei geisio i ddwy wneud i ddweud asi mor trio wedyn feddwl i fod yn rhaglyn. Cymru siarnef iawn i chi —來 immediately— aodd Wordll Th делоion iddo rhai atser, wrth i dwatero lefel ond i gyd y rai os gyd yn unig i mewn ócriaeth ars allanedd, So 4 May, 1.10.33 would be a key level support if that was to go today, which isn't out of the question, I don't really see much stopping it for quite some time. Of course comments can come out and it wasn't too long ago if we look at last Friday that we had such a big push higher and I remember when this was coming out and it was actually relatively late in the day, 3 o'clock Jackson Hole speech, it's a bit of a nothing up and down exactly where a bit of a dogey then Trump comes out and his big Twitter speech war and the dollar weakened massively against the Euro on the trade fears igniting China weakening and obviously the Euro following suit I thought it was strengthening to the upside there as the dollar weakened and I've been along the short Euro dollar for a while so seeing that was quite frustrating and it was a long walk home thinking about what has Trump done to me here. I've given him nothing but praise over the last few years and he's come out with one of these days where all he says is negative. For the dollar but the market at the moment every time we even try to get higher in this Euro just met with a push down. You can see every single time and even going back to that daily chart here you can see just how any moment even going back to January push higher and it's just that breakthrough and this market despite what Trump wants is pushing lower and of course within a couple of weeks, three weeks or so we do have the central bank meetings coming together again ECB this time of first year so obviously we've got that coming up and the Fed and Bank of England as well on the 18th and 19th of September so going to be certainly interesting as we've now wrapped up August from the end of today September's coming the volume I suppose we can look to start coming back into the market and people going to have to start pricing in new events ahead of these central bank meetings and the Hawks are trying to step it up from the ECB to know a veil as of yet and you can see as well just this morning the Dax over the last few minutes or so just pushing to a new high well here we go since well pretty much the fifth of August there so Dax pushing higher is a bit of a resistance point and of course we're 10 minutes into that open where the volume is going to start picking up anyway but that doesn't look like a hawkish ECB does it despite what some of the comments have been yesterday and even this morning as well S&P you can see this this really really key level being tested late last night obviously there's no pivots on here but you can just see the importance of this whole area whether we can get above there this week will be absolutely massive for the month as well 2943 the top end 2944 the top end of that range and then even where we just sort of reached overnight in the Asian session 34 so if we can clear that there will be a pretty good pretty important for the S&P and what's been a pretty good last week really since Friday last week where obviously stocks came down pretty strong and Trump eased off the pedal maybe he saw the reaction to his favourite S&P and thought well hang on a minute I need to just calm this down we don't want to repeat last quarter four last year and we've drifted higher and that is in turn has helped oil as well the easing of the trade war fears has helped as oil is set for its biggest weekly gain since July so if we just put the oil chart going on from that week and of course with the trade fears that we had last Friday by just rectangle that now you can see we came lower so if off the trade fears there now easing a touch obviously oil has to repair some of that so that's one of the reasons that we have pushed to the upside and then of course on Tuesday evening as you can see highlighted here now we had the API that was confirmed on Wednesday with the DOE is a big draw one of the biggest since December last year that's another reason why oil has also pushed higher and also there's a hurricane looming in Florida and this has been priced into the markets of course the week isn't over yet and just looking at this from technical point of view you can see this trend line that was already marked up I imagine this is from the session yesterday this is put that on exactly the highs this looks pretty key going forward from yesterday you can see got those free tests now so again going into the week and the month would be massively important to see whether we can get above there and then this is that trend line on a longer term coming in around 5750 something that we focus on so hurricane what they named it this time scroll down hurricane Dorian heading towards Florida raised fears of the offshore US crew producers may shut her output if the storm passes into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend so I know oil traders will be keeping a close eye on that and it's just another reason why we are looking like we're going to have one of the best weeks for oil since July so a few weeks there helped by hurricane fears trade easing and of course the draws that we saw in the weekly inventories for API Tuesday and DOE on the Wednesday as well having a look elsewhere just in the markets now the stocks just trying to continue this push higher also with the pounds as well you can see on the fact that the dollar is slightly stronger today we are just drifting lower here as well so the euro has mentioned making that new low for the year the pound thanks to some comments from Merkel last week has still relatively elevated hasn't actually retraced all that move yet if we were to make a new low for the week however you'd imagine that would come pretty quickly you can see we're trading on the futures anyway 121 77 so fair whack away from the low of the year that we had at 123 34 of course that 120 level still very much a level of interest stories from overnight what's feeding into the market I think I didn't have the chart up there so let me just go through that again for the pound you can see trading 121 77 so there's those Merkel comments there's the suspension of parliament and we pretty much reversed almost to the tick here those Merkel rumors coming through so it's an important levels for the pound still obviously to have marked up couple of headlines overnight UK and EU to step up Brexit talks as parliament show down loom so speaking to answers before the briefing about this and certainly on Twitter it depends what your agenda is but there's certainly people on one side of things that are very critical Boris Johnson and what he's doing to their beloved Great Britain but there's also people that say we're finally getting someone that's actually sticking to what they're saying and not beating round the bush and sticking to their cunning plan if you like and Boris Johnson has got this set up here so over the next month Boris Johnson has ordered officials said they will meet at least eight times throughout September in order to start a new deal come to some sort of agreement and this is to almost help the ward off the rebellion against that no deal to war so at least he's trying or this is the way it looks anyway to get some sort of deal to avoid that no deal but at the same time saying well if we can't if Europe aren't going to play a ball well fine we'll leave with that no deal as well so it would be interesting to see how that sort of developed certainly over the coming days as well and for the interns obviously trading the pound if we just have a look over the last couple of weeks you've had comments coming out which have been pretty unscheduled so that's a market where certainly today I'm just going to be a bit more of an edge and I'm only going to treat it as if I'm trading the pound so we have got some dollar related things out so therefore euro yen or Aussie against the dollar is where I would focus there for the currencies rather than the pound is treating it as almost a reaction to a news headline that you might happen to be at your desk or also headlines from yesterday drifted in or worth keeping an eye on shall we say is is is the speaker burko about how he's going to try stop this suspension of the parliament he's going to hold a vote next week to well to try and get an extension of article 50 again and whether that would happen or not may well help the remain side of things so that's a good thing expected to potentially take place next Tuesday or Thursday. I'll post the article in the chat later on with conservatives side of the thing or Boris is camp now I guess you could say especially ahead of the sort of the next parliamentary votes is of course you know this this recess happens every year between September and October so it's actually nothing new yes I know there's more at stake here we didn't really hear people talking too much about that and there hasn't been a queen speech for quite some time as well so on the other side of things it's kind of business as usual it happens every year but yes of course I do understand that his bigger things have played for now but also burko has been at the helm for over to two stints already which is the sort of the status quo so wouldn't surprise me to see a pick up in China almost out him from his seat so I'll be keeping a watch on that certainly as we do go into the end of September and October whether he still even has a role and of course he's been very very vocal over the last three months are trying to stop this this no deal and Brexit from from even happening even though not too long ago he was a Euroceptic but that's for another day perhaps and I want to get too political but certainly over the weekend we want to see how this story plays out you know are there still going to be a rebellion against Boris that no confidence vote seems to almost just drifting away as maybe this plan for the article 50 extension from burko holding that vote next week is now at the forefront of people's minds data wise as well will come on to in a moment but also speaking of the weekend we're keeping an eye on what's happening in Germany you've got the elections that fine these might be the elections that finally lead to Merkel's fall the headline there perhaps insinuating too much in the way that that would be a development that I don't think is on the cards for now that the far right AFD poise for major gains in coalition run states however the article goes on and this is really general consensus that even if the AFD becomes the strongest force in these elections it is unlikely to be able to govern as another party is willing to form a coalition with it so as has been the case really over the last couple of years where within Europe you have this build up of the far right are going to have massive gains on these elections blah blah blah and it can then lead to this that and the other that's not really been the case and it's almost some have won some haven't so for me a bit of a non story for sure worth keeping an eye on and again if it fits your agenda of the Euro another sort of nail in its coffin and fine but for me the Euro obviously even with these hawkish comments and it just seems destined that we are going to keep pushing lower as money just pouring into the dollar what other currency really at the moment would you want to be holding especially if we are going into that recession can argue obviously again and the frank but certainly against the Euro the dollar looks like it is going to strengthen it and as mentioned on that daily chart now we're at the lowest we've been since 2017 and we can just see here we just make this bit clearer you can just see the direction of this market just trending down every time we even look to push higher you can see the extent of that that move to the downside there so yeah not looking too good for the Euro quit look over the calendar as well just transition this as mentioned we do have a fair bit of data and speaking of the Euro will be worth keeping an eye of course what happens throughout the day as well we do have some inflation data around 10 o'clock and the most recent reading of that wasn't too good at all and you can see 1% was the July number and it's been on a decline in the line from a year ago where we are up at 2% so not looking too good there the range to keep an eye on there still you know not even if it was to get that top end it doesn't look too rosy but 0.9 the low end 1.2 the top end of that year on year figure and for the excluding food and energy 1.1 is the expected figure so to stay in line for both of those readings is the expectation at the moment if we were to get a worse than expected reading you can see here just put in trading economics the chart on to that five year that would be the worst well going back to late 2016 a bad reading is just going to ignite the flame even further that come September there's going to be that rate cut that they kind of were in wait and see mode at the last meeting or wait to see what the Fed did almost at the last meeting so we're looking like there's going to be a rate cut and then how big is this QE package going to be of course the Hawks over the last couple of days have been saying we don't need it as of yet but just some of those Hawks that have come out and said these things are not bydman and louton shlager so just to bring up the the dove hawk cheat sheet which you can obviously find on itc maffit I'm sure we've gone through this before we can see not bydman and louton shlager free of the most hawkish so what you would expect and then on the flip side you've had Wren over the last couple of days saying they need this QE package so as expected there hasn't really been a surprise in the ECB hawk dove camp to suggest you know that we aren't going to maybe have this package in September but you know development certainly into the into those meetings will be key and obviously we're keeping an eye on back to the the calendars we go through the morning obviously the key event euro wise is going to be that data act 10 o'clock you've also got the unemployment figure as well expected to stay in line at 7.5% then probably a bit of a lol probably a bit of a lol as we go into lunchtime so certainly from a trading point of view you'd be probably looking to exit the most part of those positions by midday and then lit the market re-adjust maybe almost take everything off the the chart and re-evaluate the positions we've got to think about it is the last day of the month so you can have that crazy month then trading where you get erratic price behavior but certainly worth looking at really key levels on your longer term chart so for example if I was trading oil I need to be thinking well hang on if we finish the week above this trendline it's key and it's bullish so above that trendline you might well get a push but also the longer term one as well which you can see here if I put it on the daily chart if we can get anywhere near today 57 54 massively important and a break above there you may well see a quick run through especially the way oil and gold of course can move on a Friday so that would be the time where I just want to around midday just have a look at the charts as we only have a session or so left of the week to identify where these really key areas then heading back into the afternoon or heading into the afternoon I should say we've got some inflationary numbers out of the US and we've got some Canadian GDP data from quarter two so it's a bit the Canadian data is always an interesting one to trade so for the interns you might be in a sticky position by then but just be careful as we know how quickly that can spike to always come back again so just wait for the retracement will be my advice on that inflationary numbers out of the US will be worth keeping an eye on those core PCE index from July 1.6 expected for that year and year personal income 0.3 as well and then Chicago PMI got the chart up here to see it's been on a steady decline over the last three readings of this below 50 now as well so it's fallen into contraction for the last two that expected figure still below 47.3 it would have to beat the top end of that range for some I would say consistent dollar strength and then obviously that would be above 50 for the first time since May so you may well see a further run through for the dollar if that number is to be good and that really wraps up the afternoon to 1.32 to 3 o'clock is going to be pretty key data wise and it's not necessarily a case if you're going to want to be holding positions for maybe a long time. Just a quick note that Dax is pushing above that resistance level if that's going to confirm a break above then it's always worth keeping an eye on the half hourly close so in four minutes you've got the 8.30 close a break above there and you can imagine stocks are going to have another go at pushing to this really key resistance I can't stress how important I think this whole level is for the week and month and well for the rest of well for the next few weeks anyway. Going back to that Canada that wraps it up then no real speakers of no however we have had some unscheduled releases for sure over the last few days and weeks and you've got to imagine Trump is going to be tweeting and he does not want that dollar as strong as it is so just be careful about holding positions over the weekend as well I would say. Any questions as usual please do let us know obviously be on the mic throughout the day and to the interns good luck ahead of your training competition.