 Good morning to you. I hope you had a fantastic weekends Monday the 15th of March brand new week So just going to encapsulate some of the major headlines over the weekend of which it was relatively quiet But we're also going to take a look for the week ahead and this week Of course, we've got the FMC the Bank of England and the BoJ rate decisions There's some US data like retail sales and we've got updates around the vaccine AstraZeneca and also Chinese data overnight that I want to go through so quick look at the charts this morning and We were a little bit positive initially in the overnight session Asia was a little bit mixed if anything a little bit negative overall The S&P 500 future actually did come up to test and retest up in close proximity to the all-time highs of which Of course, we saw the end of last week and they're just looking at this chart on a daily We did see that retest of course Of an area where we would up around mid of February so the 16th So again finding a bit of a barrier here in the spooze at 39.59 here on the daily continuation On the pullback then we've just fallen back toward pivot here going to the European open Any breakthrough their support area good levels seen around 3900 today and today on the S&P in the futures They're encapsulating the first of March high some of the previous areas of resistance and support on that period So any breakdown of price that'd be a key area to keep a look or an eye on WTI crude pretty similar fashion really a little bit positive initially Breaking out of a very short-term range of price activity. You can see here that we traded Through kind of Thursday Friday of last week break out above that we ran up to around 6640 before just fading back That move still up there around 42 cents there in oil There has been some headlines and just just just got to make the point about some further drone attacks from Houthi Yemen militants In the kind of southwest corner of Saudi Arabia targeting Specific airports and so on however, that's not having any real meaningful impact on price In terms of the actual infrastructure of gas and oil in Saudi Arabia very much more situated in the northeast kind of around then close proximity to the Persian Gulf in itself and this in other opposite far corner of the country So still ongoing that activity to be aware of obviously any supply shops and infrastructure would be significant But this isn't one of those Otherwise elsewhere gold pretty flat overall up around three bucks in the FX space the Dixie's a touch stronger up around two tenths of one percent major pairs down But only very moderately the US 10-year yields of course Continue to be quite a focal point in terms of indicators to watch for potential subsequent price activity across other asset classes and This is looking at the 10-year T-note future here and that low that we printed back on the fifth Retested at the end of last week's session that was also tested again in the late Asia pack session So holding for now that will be a key area to watch around 131 23 On the daily chart here, then you can see around that area that's been holding Is technically quite important because any breakdown of this could easily see another point lower before we come back down towards these areas that were in play towards October of 2019 and the retest we had in beginning of 2020 before really the pandemic really started to kick off. So it's lower rectangle here would be quite key Obviously any further break out in yield to the upside Constituting this break down could well then lend its hand to dollar strength equity weakness in that pattern that we've been seeing of late With the markets very sensitive to yield fluctuation for the time being that's pretty much the overall general sentiment this morning. So Tiny bit negative nothing outright. I'd say we can use as I said was pretty quiet overall, but let me get you up speed fully starting off with the Chinese situation In China, we had some data points overnight and that was industrial output came in at 35.1% above expectations of 30 and their retail sales figure came at 33.8 percent above expectations of 32 percent So these numbers are incredibly high, but just remember this is because of base effects from this time last year If you think about industrial output, it collapsed to a three decade low as a comparable figure So hence the reason why those numbers are so strong had a slight relief in the domestic market overnight in in China However, that faded pretty quickly The other thing of course to be very mindful of and not get caught this week is that US clocks have changed So they've gone from EST to EDT daylight savings So that does mean then that the time differential between London and New York is four hours So the typical five for the next two weeks So any major US data, for example, we'll be coming out at 12 30 London time And two o'clock the night's the open at 130 and that will be in play for two weeks So your today's kind of squeezed in a little bit if you're based in the UK mainland Europe So don't get caught blindsided by anything so the FMC on Wednesday will be at 6 p.m. London time Not the usual time of seven Moving on then some of the other headlines to to have a look at quite a lot of press coverage over the weekend to do a vaccine news Now talking about Europe firstly where Italy's northern One of Italy's northern regions said that it would stop using a batch of the astro coronavirus shots after a teacher died following the vaccination on Saturday Island separately of temporarily suspended astros vaccine out of an abundance of caution they said Citing reports in the Legion medicine's agency regarding a cluster of serious blood blood clotting in some recipients Now this is something we were discussing on the Amplify live stream on Friday because some of those headlines were already in circulation and the important thing to note here is that the EMA the kind of main body in Europe have said that there's no indication that the events were caused by the vaccination a View that was echoed by the World Health Organization as well on Friday. So you've got the EMA and the WHO AstraZeneca themselves have also said they found no evidence of increased risk of deep vein thrombosis And in fact actually when you look at the numbers then The number of people who have died from this blood clotting would be no different from what they would see in any other standard vaccine or drugs, so I Would say a lot of this has political connotations There's obviously an underlying tension brewing at the moment between Europe and Britain to do with vaccine Manufacturing and supply particularly of the astro drug, which we were talking about last week Which has gone from a hundred million promise of Delivery to 40 million to not even hitting that target and then the complexity is even further layered by the unresolved issues That still remain around Brexit, which still exists Absolutely, but definitely there's other forces confronting markets for now and so that's very much not too much of a talking point However, it does Underline a lot of the tension in that relationship of presence So I'm not sure how much to read into that. I mean ultimately, I don't think it's a major thing for market prices as far as right now I think the fact that you've got the EMA the WHO and the company coming out with the stats as well I think Put some more of a political twist to those headlines more than anything one thing to bear in mind as I've said last week this is the kind of vaccine Distributions that we're seeing in Europe and as we know AstraZeneca is the the blue color does make up just one of a basket of different Vaccines that Europe has gone after to be deployed over the course of the next 18 months or so At the moment obviously Astrid would play a strategic part. You can see that deliveries Were supposed to be kicking in from really now and then ramping up to then stay constant from Q3 onwards of this year Through to Q2 of 2022 But as you can see here Pfizer by Ntech makes up the largest proportion Which is to come Gray color here and then they're spread across the others but noting, you know Companies like Jane Jay still yet to come to market and they've obviously faced a lot of different Barriers whether through manufacturing So forth then they don't really kick in until at this point. What is an estimated Q2? However, you know, it could even take longer, of course and and Sunofi and GSK's drugs also being delayed and you can see here That's not going to be kicking in till Q1 of 2022 So yeah bit of context there The other thing from a news perspective just before we get into the calendar for the week ahead is Germany Exit polls have pointed to defeats for Merkel's center right party in two state elections Which took place on Sunday batten-vertenberg and fine land Palatinate It's a litmus test for the federal Elections which are taking place in September in Germany and the green party performed particularly well Which does leave the prospect then potentially of an alliance between the conservatives and greens as quite a likely outcome of those September Federal elections or the greens could instead lead a coalition that includes the SPD the FDP or even the far-left and D linker party So definitely the popularity for Merkel as she kind of departs Continues the pattern we've seen for a number of years now, which is diminishing for the CDU Again for European politics as it kind of says here the CDU leader Under fire mid anger over virus strategy. This is very much echoed pretty much Globally really if you think about Donald Trump if you think about What's happening in the UK and Boris Johnson and the opposition he's had of thankfully he's been for him. He's been Kind of made it managed to get over the initial Very slow adoption of stringent measures to lock down 12 months ago by a very fast rollout of the vaccine program Which has kind of taken some of the heat off the strategy that the UK government was deploying at the time when when death rates were particularly high But if you look at them Germany or Macron in France with French elections literally about 12 months away in April of 2022 And then you've got Italy where we had complete Political blow-up that's led to now Mario Draghi as a technocrat caretaker kind of government in place So the incumbents have been under pressure here because Ultimately whether they've had successful or not strategies generally speaking it gives opposition parties a Real main key focal point to focus on where tangible risk of loss of life then is a very emotive Subject matter to talk about so yeah, it's just if anything accelerated the decline of the popularity of the CDU Party but we have been seeing similar for the likes of the leading parties in as I say France Italy and so on and so forth So it's a the aftermath of such a Humanitarian the economic consequence of them does tend to live lead to significant political change you could say from a historical precedence Looking at the week ahead then a few things I want to talk about Starting off with today is pretty quiet, but then Tuesday things start to pick up a little bit That's then you do get the Germans at EW figures coming out And then you get the US retail sales report now the US retail sales report last month You remember came in at 5.3 percent was the best number we've had since basically kind of June May June of 2020 when we reopened the US economy after the Main lockdown on the initial onset of the pandemic. We had those phenomenal numbers So that number was particularly strong 5.3 percent was above 1.1 at the time But do keep in mind that was chiefly supported because of the stimulus checks that were kicking in that time round I think it was Electronics and appliances really underpinned them the spending that lifted that figure Piers and I talked about this a little bit in the market watch podcast on Friday if you haven't checked that out yet But this figure this retails for sales figure coming out on Tuesday And should actually in addition and alongside the industrial production numbers that we'll see later on the week Should actually be a little bit softer than what we saw in that previous reading The retail sales figure artificially buoyed then by a stimulus check this one should fade The stimmy checks the new ones the 1400 bucks have hit this weekend So they'll show up in the following month's data So I don't actually think the retail sales number is that bigger deal in honesty That being that a lower number is only going to be followed by a pretty explosive number the next time round given that this Stimulus check being issued this time round by the latest 1.9 trillion Biden package is even bigger than the previous check So it's hard to then see through the noise that ultimately is supported by these kind of one-time effects of those stimulus checks Couple things here then the ING were noting as well to be aware of that They said that February winter storms would have deterred people from venturing out and With many left without power that will add to downside risks in terms of both of those figures retail sales Sales and IP dust or activity could also be impacted dead by bad weather and associated disruptions So remember we had to cold freeze of course over that period Okay, next thing then is you got the bank decisions FMC Bank of England BoJ so big three following on from the ECB last week and Overall, I would say you're probably going to get something fairly similar to what we have from the ECB in the sake of the market still very hungry for any type of more explicit nature referring to the the yield movement We've had of late, but I'd say all three will push back against or I should say not push back But say nothing really Directly on it and so therefore does have to propensity to disappoint some if yields continue to move higher over the course of the next Two or three days into the meetings in themselves So I actually think overall it's the old movement and its positioning going into the meeting That will subsequently then lead to a potential reaction Given the fact that the Fed will probably just roll out the continuation of what what power said before remember back in the Wall Street Journal speech he gave on the 4th of March He said it'll take a substantial time to achieve the Fed's goals of full employment and 2% sustained Inflation so such that not expecting much in the way of real policy change nothing at all really And very small if nothing at all in language It's more about them. How does the markets perceive that based on the the markets positioning at that point in time? So the next couple of days will be quite key a few things to be aware of though Economist survey by Bloomberg see a two quarter point hikes happening in 2023 But they also expect the feds own forecast released at the same time as the policy statement on wednesday Will show the median fed official projecting rates staying on hold near zero throughout that year Remember the fed see rates basically on their dot-plot projections, which we are getting an update of Remember every calendar quarter march june sep deck So there will be probably little alteration it know of none in rates is what the general consensus is Irrespective of the fact that economists actually see and a little bit more hawkish that they will Conduct two rate hikes of 25 basis points in 2023 I think the fed forecast though will continue to remain underpinned that rates will remain low through that year I at zero The committee making its first quarterly economic forecast of the year are anticipating to raise their estimates for 2021 growth Obviously we've got the stimulus package now coming through and so on and edge up the inflation call That was the view of 41 economists who were Surveied on on the 5th to the 10th of march in terms of that survey Some interesting stats here 66 percent expect no change in guidance or conditions with only 22 percent expecting a highlight on financial conditions so Talking about what's been going on the markets. I think that's i'm on the camp with the other 80 odd percent thinking He's not going to comment directly on that And then 12 percent are looking for strengthened forward guidance Which would be the next step of really counteracted. It's your move I definitely don't think that that's going to happen But again 12 percent of those economists are expecting that as potential reaction For the bank of england very very dull Not expecting much here at all really Just a lot of people will be looking of course about any yield commentary There's a little bit to read into that from comments from bailey last week But I think of the three this is probably the least interesting And then you've got the boj happening on Thursday night going into Friday morning And perhaps this actually is is interesting because the boj are going to present the review of their policy tools on Friday And this has sparked a bit of interest because there's a few different things here That they could do and this was an article I've shared it. I'll share it in the community on amphi live I did also tweet it from the amphi live twitter account And it's a really good one because it runs through some of these in terms of probability and what it is So here tweak of guidance on their etf purchases Find tuning operation of your curve control Modifying their tiered reserve system So I'm not going to go to all of these nows, but this is a really short You know, obviously it's just a short few paragraphs for each individual one But definitely worth a read there's a widening tolerance basically around The band of zero percent on the 10 year rate target at the boj Is possible so widening of that tolerance, but governor corroda has spoken against it and thus Quite a few banks said they're not expecting any changes for now at least But these are the different things we'll be looking out for and we'll talk more about as we get into the latter half of this week So that that is it for for the rundown Sam's going to go over all the charts my technical perspective in the discord room So do check that out and amplify live.com. Otherwise, I'm going to wish you guys a great day ahead and take care. Thanks very much