 Welcome, traders, this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally, going to get started here in just 30 seconds. Okay, welcome. It is 1pm London time and we are starting with this week's live market trade analysis session. Like I said with me, Patrick Munnally, before we get started, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer and most pertinent to today's presentation is the fact that the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They are not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Those of you here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city plc consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets, sometimes quite literally overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some time to play with and some capital. I decided to start day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately at that stage, day gamble. After some early beginners lurk, I managed to rack up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my capital. To say that was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. So I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months was a time during which I upped not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing, extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suit my personality and all of which are underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you accept and understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster ride of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. And no longer concerned the outcome of an individual trade or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades. So I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed accounts service, again delivering annual positive returns. Since 2010, I've also met hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert, exclusively providing market and trading analysis to Tick Mill clients through the Tick Mill blog. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down the technical and fundamental drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trades setup videos for about two or three markets that I'm absolutely tracking for the trading session ahead and I share those through the Tick Mill Trading View account. I'll post a link to that account so that you can, if you choose to, follow along with those trading ideas as I post them on a daily basis. I also run Tick Mill's e-mini strategy Facebook group where I post a daily trade plan outlining my trading strategy for the cash trading session ahead. I give my bias and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over seven and a half thousand points of profit since we launched the group in April 2021. The second Tick Mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. Tick Mill Futures Telegram Trading Group is a real-time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights, analysis and trades. I also provide a live market commentary where traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform, helping traders develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and those mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Like I say, I'll post links into the chats for these groups. You can just request access for the Facebook group there where I give the daily trade plan. I also provide market institutional research from tier one investment banks and you can follow along through the group and it's updated throughout the day really, throughout the trading day anyway and it's full of some great information and like I say, a bunch of trading opportunities as well that I'm actively tracking in the futures market. I share into the Facebook group as well as through the Telegram group where there's a little bit more information and insight given on a daily basis. So let's take a look at the charts. This week, I'm going to do something a little bit. We're going to change the time frame up a little bit. We're going to look at multi-time frame analysis here. We have the four-hour which is the biggest screen on the left here and then we have the weekly and the daily on the right-hand side and we're going to take a look through some of the charts. Obviously we're coming out of a holiday or sorry, we're in the holiday shortened trading periods for most money centers. Friday markets were closed and yesterday a majority were also closed. So we're just coming back online and what I would caution you on this week especially is that volumes tend to be a little bit lower as many people are on holiday. They're either taking a holiday last week or they'll be on holiday this week and hence participation is a little bit lower and we tend to be a little bit in terms of a range environment. It's my experience anyway during these holiday periods but for next week I would imagine volumes to keep back up again and participation to increase. So let's take a look at where we are on some bigger pictures of levels that I'm paying attention to. So in terms of the S&P 500, I'm looking at this 4156, 4162 actors resistance for the coming sessions. We've got the CPI report coming out tomorrow so I'm not anticipating that we are going to break ranges in advance of that CPI report so I'll anticipate a range environment. So I'm looking at whilst we hold this resistance a pull back ideally to test into the ascending trend channel support and these prior highs here. So 4080, 4085 is the level I'd be paying very close attention to if we get down there watching for bullish reversal patterns. My next upside objective will be that we take out the 4170s and 4220 is a key level. It's a prior high. It also represents a two sigma volatility based on yesterday's close. So keep that in mind because more often than not, when prices test that two sigma volatility level, pretty much 90% of the time they'll close below there. So that's a key level to keep abreast of is that that 4220. Now the equality objective that I have and first that here for the first time when I refer to equality what I mean is equal leg swings in the market which have a tendency to play over and over again. We have a 131 extension from a quality test. You'll note we tested that 4171 we've got an immediate reaction. Those you will often and those of you who have not for the first time who follow along with my work you'll know that they have a tendency to act as support and resistance levels once we identify them. So what I'm looking for is any move back through that 4172 we've got daily projected range resistance 4174. So a close back through 4175 would open up that 4220 area and in extension then we have that three sigma volatility target at 4243. If we trade up into either of those levels I'll certainly be looking for opportunities to fade that move and again I'm not calling an absolute higher and absolute low ever. What I'm looking for is just tradeable opportunities and at predefined levels and those the levels I'll be paying attention to in terms of the E-mini S&P as we head into this week. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ. NASDAQ has been outperforming. We're finding some resistance here range resistance kicking in 13200. So here's what I'll be watching in terms of the NASDAQ. So as we hold this current area as resistance so 13210. I look for a pullback here to develop into the support areas. So if we get back down here so I've been looking for 12,819 and then from there we watch for another attempt higher and the initial target on any push higher if we hold this current resistance area will be a move back into test that corrected trend channel as resistance. So that would give us a move back into 13,127 from that 12,819 level. If we lose 12,819 and we take out this projected trend channel support next area of interest going to be 12,698 and below there we have the 161 extension and the weekly S3 12,572 and weekly projected range support. So if things extended to the downside and we get into this area then once again I watch to see if we've got any momentum divergence and I watch with bullish reversal patterns to play a counter trend move from that area where we have these three levels of concurrence in play. Moving to the Dow Jones. Dow looking for any pullbacks into the ascending trend channel support 33,370. bullish reversal patterns we look for new highs and we would let me just draw this in for you. So if that is going to be our pullback into this area first up will be 34,019 that also so that's the 127 extension of this projected consolidation. We also have daily projected range resistance coming in there at 34,036. If we don't get the pullback and the Dow extends from current levels to the upside then again I'm watching this zone so just above 34,000. I would anticipate Dow is going to struggle to make new momentum highs here so we'd have momentum divergence in play. So any move into this area if we don't get a decent pullback so let me just show you what I'm talking about so with this type of move I would then be watching for that deeper corrective move to play out before once again trying to set a base and move higher. So these are the areas of interest for me 34,000 just above or back down into trend channel support 33,438 and I look to play off those levels in the opposing direction given the current structure that I'm seeing in the Dow. This looks like a way three extension this is going to be a way four consolidation and we look for a way five to the upside. Noteworthy with the Dow is this daily trend line resistance also comes in just around that 34,000 level so I think on the first test of this 34,000 it's going to prove sticky and certainly tradable to my mind. Moving to the DAX. DAX trading developing this wedge scenario so pullbacks to find support initially here into pivot 15,730 and for those of you here follow me weekly the 16,000 level is an area I'm looking to get tested and from there I would anticipate again we have a tradable pullback let's see what we've got in terms of that last leg to the downside yeah there we have it 127 extension coinciding with the weekly R2 coinciding with the ascending trend channel resistance just anything any first touch above that 16,000 level as long as we maintain momentum divergence so you can see we've got a nice push to the upside in terms of momentum here we're starting to roll over any last push into that 16,000 I'm looking to fade certainly on the basis that we don't make new highs in terms of momentum. Moving to the FTSE shortly FTSE this morning we have tested into this descending trend line resistance off the all-time highs that we saw earlier in the year seeing a little bit of a pullback here what I'm anticipating now is that we get a pullback equal in scope or a scope and scale sorry to that last move from last major corrective move and that should take us back down into test this projected sending trend channel support 75 70 sorry 75 50s from there watch for bullish reversal patterns and I think we get an extension then to complete a five-way sequence here up into the high volume node 79 18s any loss at this stage of the projected trend channel support will be a pretty bearish development for the FTSE. No we have traded into that target zone so we were looking initially for a test of the equal leg which we got a little bit of selling push back into our 78.6% retracement from our 73 30 node and then found buyers and now we're testing up into the next resistance zone so sitting currently sitting short short little FTSE on this morning let's take a look at the nifty nifty has moved higher where we get these gaps and we start to challenge some prior swings this suggests to me that we've got a wave three developing a wave three high you can see we're not getting any momentum divergence so we'd be watching for any pull back now in a three-way fashion set a wave four low and I'm going to be looking to to long about certainly if we've got a retest of this uh descending trend channel resistance now to active support so anything into 17 500 zone watch for bullish reversal patterns there I think we can get an extension up into the 18 000 and the high volume node with the next target 18 180 is what we'll be looking for with the nifty moving to the bonds I use the TLT as a proxy for long-term bonds it's an ETF the iShares 20 year treasury bond we are once again testing our resistance zone I'm relatively confident that we're going to break through here so I'm looking for a move through 110 I want to be engaged on the long side as I've talked about over previous weeks our target is the equality objective at 116 58 I've got a little internal trend channel support here so pull backs here that find support into the 106 level I think bullish reversal patterns you can get aggressive there and start trading this to the upside and look for that breakthrough 110 on our upside objective monthly projected range resistance just below 116 and 116 58 is the equality objective versus the swing structure we have in place from these lows and the swing low here at 98 80 gives us that 116 58 equality objective moving to the 4x complex let's take a look at the dollar index dollar again I think we're in a consolidation phase here difficult ahead of the cpi obviously we're going to get some noise and volatility around that the setup to my mind at this stage is that we are looking to test resistance into the 103 handle weekly projected range resistance just above 103 17 so I think the dollar is correcting at this stage now any loss of this projected pitch for support I think we trade down take a look below the 101 level before trying to once again build a base for a correction I think this my view at the moment is I think the dollar is potentially ripe for a short term correction before heading lower again so I'm not again not calling it bottom in the dollar or top in the euro sterling level and what I'm talking about here are tradeable corrected moves so I'm looking for any pullbacks into this pitchfork support to find support 101 sixties I think we can take a look at 103s any loss of this trench handle support on a closing basis I think we take a look under 101 we'll see if if any buyers are home there euro dollar the euro dollar still has a sequence here that doesn't appear complete to me and this is an ending diagonal scenario which would take us into these prior swing high sorry prior swing highs and from there I'm watching for this 110 to act as initial resistance here on the daily time frame as high as 110 32 so what's the setup in terms of the four hour here well like I say it's this ending diagonal so to my mind this sequence would suggest that we have one more high to get into that 110 15 110 30 area and then I think we could see a deeper pullback now this is kind of it's unusual from my perspective anyway for there to be a lack of synchronicity in terms of the dollar and the euro sequence so this is kind of this scenario I'm looking at with the euro is is counter to the idea in the dollar whereby we take a look under 101 before we get a more significant bounce in the dollar so that would be the the euro taking a look above 110 bearing in mind they trade in an inverse fashion the alternative scenario is here we hold the current highs so this is the idea of the dollar index going to 103 before lower so if we hold these current highs you can see we'd have an equality objective which will take us back down into that 107 80 support zone and we've got the value where we are high here on the volume profile in there as well we got that price ring low so this is the dollar if the euro dollar can't hold support in that 10850 area we look for another leg to the downside before it finds support makes that move for 110 and that broadly coincide with the dollar index taking a look at 103 selling off and then taking a look below below 101 before putting in a base for a more sustained near-term corrective move is my it's my view on the FX major there sterling trading in a potential channel now so as we hold current highs I look for any move into the trend channel support weekly s1 122 80s weekly projected range sport 122 50 so any move into here I want to be long and we still have that open upside objective which is the weekly trend line resistance coming in 126 70s and that also represents the 161 extension of this initial swing structure so again just to be clear so we were looking for an equality objective we've got the equality objective test held that 124 10 on the first move we pulled back into 122 70s held support there then traded up into the 131 zone got a pullback there we're now looked to be holding or anticipate we hold this 122 80 area and then we get this push up into the the final target zone for this move in terms of sterling 126 50s 126 60s giving us that weekly trend channel resistance from there and anticipate a a deeper corrective move moving to dolly yen dolly yen has a equality objective now versus the swing low at 130 60 I'm looking for a test of 134 70s and from there again I see a trade I'm watching for bearish reverse patterns we've got weekly projected range resistance just about 135 13 so we watch a bearish reversal patterns there my first target would be a move down initially the high volume node 133 10 and then daily projected range support and this potential then for an inverse head and shoulder scenario but just that using that as a target at this stage with the weekly pivots at 132 20s so decent trade from that 134 70s you can be looking to risk maybe 50 50 or so let's pick up potential for 200 plus if the trade plays out Aussie structure is uh is not as clear we uh we tested the invalidation zone we were looking for this level to hold target level 68 20s we tested it yesterday during the holiday thin trade and got a a weak bounce into the high volume mode so for me at the moment there isn't really a clear setup in the Aussie so I stand aside in terms of the Aussie and these bunch of these antipodeans really we did get the equality test in the Kiwi and got a nice rejection there so what I look for in the Kiwi now is can we actually take out this this pivot here at the 61 60s so if we can then that to my mind would set up a retest certainly we look for initially in logical progression we look for the weekly projected range support and then we look for a test the price cycle lows at 60 80s moving to the commodities gold we are looking for a test of this 1978 now in gold if we can get down into that area watch a bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and you look then for a break of the corrective channel here to take you back up through the 2002 level and I've been looking for daily projected rain sorry weekly projected range resistance 20 81 and then obviously we have these price cycle highs here at which we'd be taking out then on a I doubt we do on a closing basis this is the third test into this area and I think we got another pullback but the break higher I do sense is coming this year and the target area is the 127 extension 22 04 ultimately I think we've got a bit of work to do and we and allowing for that dollar index to have an interim corrected move so that momentum can reload and reset to ultimate excellent dollar higher in gold and effects majors crude oil continues to consolidate so what we anticipate like like I said last week is that we are going to hold the gap here gaps going to act as support and we're going to see a fifth wave extension so our fifth wave we anticipate it's going to be equal to wave one so we are looking for a move into the gap to find support so 77 40s 76 40s somewhere in this area we watch a bullish reversal patterns and then we look for a move up into the 84 90s and then 85 would become a magnet therefore for crude oil let's just see where this trend line would come in if we extend it out there actually be even deeper than that let's see so the gap is 75 70s so we could technically even pulling back into 75 70s would still have a bullish structure for crude oil but at this stage I think we could we can see something a little bit more shallow than that and I take my first look would be at 77 50s as support there filling a half gap and then getting the extension to the upside bitcoin trading to our target we eventually got a test of that 30 000 level over the weekend we're looking for that triangle break to set that up now again just in terms of basic structure and having some some trading information information that you can repeatedly use transferable to each and every player at every time frame we haven't got any moments and divergence yet so fading this move to my mind anyway and from 15 plus years experience in the market is a lower probability scenario it's possible that this is the high and we roll over from here fine but less probable to my mind we need to grind things out a bit here now and what I look for is three pushes three attempts higher where each attempt fails to make new highs in terms of momentum that to me is a much higher probability countertrend trade setup so that at this stage I'd be looking for a move up into 31 300 31 800 zone then hope if this trade is going to step up and technically meets my criteria we'd be looking for momentum divergence to fail to make new highs as prices make new highs then that sets up the trade to retest the breakout and more often than not what you get as a test of the apex of the triangle which coincides with the high volume nodes back into the 28 000 level before again resetting I'm not calling the top here we can definitely trade higher in terms of bitcoin but that's the technical setup for me at the moment in terms of bitcoin last one I'll take a look at this which is aether has a nice technical trade setup here we have on the daily time frame an equality objective 20 80 versus our lows and our potential we'll call it B wave low at this point 13 73 and what I like about this setup is that we are aiming for the target zone for that 20 80 and we're doing it as an ending diagonal so we're starting to run out momentum starting to fade so I look for any pullbacks into the ascending trendline support 18 60 watch a bullish reversal pattern to engage on the long side trade to that 20 80 target and from there then I'd be watching for momentum divergence to have significantly developed or matured even and then we look for a pullback and my target would be down into the weekly projected range support at the 17 50s so that concludes this week's whistle stop tour of the markets I'm watching I think there's like I said there is opportunity developing be cognizant of the fact we're in a lower participation lower volume environment for the remainder of this week so you can get exaggerated moves and so again if you're looking to play countertrend remember to have additional confirmation you want to see the various reversal patterns in on the time frame your trading and most importantly pay attention to that momentum divergence because it's an additional confirmation that more often than not needs to be addressed by the market for the market to continue to trend so that's just something to have in your back pocket for the trading week ahead are there any questions they want me to take a look at chart I haven't covered or any question regarding a chart I have covered something wasn't clear now is your time to send those through let me do something as well here Charles I'm here let's trade on you here we go this is the link for the I've posted the Facebook group link in there that's for the trading view daily trade ideas I share and for those who want to access the tick mill blog where I also share the daily market outlook and there are other great analysts on there as well and strategists providing insights feel free to log in there and you'll find access to wealth of great technical and fundamental analysis from the from the guys on the team okay I don't see any questions coming through so I'm going to consider that I've done a reasonable job of explaining my market view to you guys this week as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much