 Welcome back folks. We've got markets in positive territory. Let's go over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Every Wednesday we talk to Teddy at 40 past the hour. You can reach Teddy every trading day at forex-trading-unlock.com. As we look to talk a little bit of forex, maybe we'll talk a little bit of the dollar, maybe talk a little bit of that crude oil market. Teddy Kegstad, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. So where do we start, man? We got a CPI data number this morning, had a little bit of movement in the currency action. I got the DXY, the dollar index up there. Quick spike to positive prices and we give it back in a heartbeat. What do you think about that CPI data number and the action we got, whether it was notes and bonds or some action in the dollar as we kick this off? Well, I think the number is very lagging for one. I'm not really too concerned about the way it came out. I think what you're seeing really right now in the markets is the oil-driven rally in certain currencies and break in others. It's very obvious with oil being at around the $80 level and pushing, I mean, you know what, my projection is to a hundred. It's going to keep on going. I think what you have right now, because you've had a little uptick in bonds and notes over the past day or two, that that's putting a little bit of a halt on the dollar bull versus many currencies. That's why you're getting a little relief in the euro and not necessarily a pound, but the Swiss. But the oil trade is definitely driving the US dollar yet. I mean, since we talked last week, talk about an explosion into new highs. I mean, now we're trading at a level of we're at $113.44 right now in the end. I was calling for $112.50 on the way to $113.50 for the past couple of weeks. Well, now we've hit that. $114.116 is definitely in my sights. I mean, I've been saying for weeks that $116 is where I'm looking for by the fall, sometime moving into November, very likely for us to hit that. And even last week I said now with the way oil is going and stuff that you can see the US dollar again, probably at $122 by the end of the year. But not the same for like the US dollar Canada. We had a head and shoulders that was confirmed with higher oil prices driving the Canada stronger versus the dollar with the uptick in the bonds and notes. It's also helping to fuel the break on the downside for the US dollar Canada. So our divergence definitely exists, but the oil trade is back on table. Remember, I said it was off for a couple of months. It is definitely back on the table. And the interest rates, I'd be very leery about this little short-term little uptick. I think no matter what, you're going to see the notes and bonds a lot lower over the next couple of weeks. The reality is that the Fed and even these numbers, this is the same remnant. If you remember back in 2005 to 2008, the housing crisis started three years before they even acknowledged it being a problem, the Fed or the National Association of Realtors and stuff. And you got to remember that whether it's CNBC or the Fed or a lot of government agencies, what they do is they're all pep rallies for the market. They always say something good when numbers are good. And when things are bad, they always really sandbag them and downplay them. But we all live in reality. We all know everything is local. You can see how things are. Everyone sees the pricing and stuff. The fact that the Fed says inflation is not a problem and it's on pace pretty much and whatever. Well, they obviously don't go shopping like the rest of us do. And don't see what's really going on around, especially in major cities. Not everyone lives in a major city. So I think that this is going to be exacerbated a lot once we get to the holidays that they can't hide the fact that inflation's here. It's not going away by any means. But people voted for this. The oil industry is going to be under siege for the next few years. This is just the beginning. When I call the $100 oil almost a year ago now, eight, nine months ago, 10 months ago, that was a short-term figure. That was thinking that, well, if we make these short-term moves, this is going to happen. But if we actually start to reinforce these short-term moves, which is being done, well, now you're looking at $150 oil a year from now. I guarantee you that the prices that we saw back during the Bush era 20 years ago, we will exceed those prices in probably the next six to 12 months. And that's not going to stop. Until that wave stops, you're going to see this perpetuated all across the country. And these currencies are going to be impacted by it too. So I think the US dollar, Canada, once again, that bear trend is probably going to resume in a big way, especially if interest rates do keep an uptick right now. Because if the Fed keeps on their buying program, which we know it's going to come to an end soon, but they're doing one last wave of buying. So that'll support that. That's not good for the dollar. And then the oil price is definitely going to drive it. And I think that you're seeing it in the countries that are most impacted by Japan, the yen. The US dollar, Canada, obviously not so. The euro, the euro is in a bad shape too. We know the energy costs are rising. If oil really starts to press higher levels, I wouldn't doubt that you see the euro US dollar trading 10 basis points lower in the next six months. And that would be talk about adding some volatility across the board, man. If we start seeing 150 oil, let alone anything above 100, people like to talk about $80 even as we get above that, it starts causing some problems. Not sure why every $10 probably doesn't cause some problems as it goes up. But what do you look for in a market? If you see something like that, man, I see the market getting a little freaked out. We ever get near $150 oil. What do you look for just in the general markets if you think crude ever got to that type of a price point? Oh, the general markets, I think you're going to see a big slowdown in the transports. And a lot of your mid-range companies, like your Russell companies, I mean the NASDAQ, tech companies, I think are, I'm not saying that they're insulated from it, but I don't think they're going to be impacted as hard. But the reality is like, people don't talk about the transports anymore, certain sectors of the S&P. Well, the reality is these sectors do drive that index. And I think that as we're hitting this buffering point of costs, as we head into the new year, you got to remember that we're already looking, people are talking about not having to order Christmas gifts for two years out now. Your supply chains are getting so backed up. So even though there are things out there, we have four shortages. Four shortages cause inflation and cause higher demand. You know how that basic supply and demand goes. I think that these things will be incredibly exacerbated in 2022. I mean, people think, you know, I remember last year, people like, oh, this is the year we hope never happened. I know a lot of people that would rather go back to 2020 than 2021. 2022 I think is going to be, especially financially, is going to be very, very hard on small businesses, middle class families for sure. You know, so in the overall market is driven by earnings. Where are earnings going to come from? You know, think about this with restaurants. I talked to somebody in the restaurant industry that I never even thought this was a problem. Now you have restaurants that are paying their waitstaff $15 to $20 an hour. They're still getting tipped 20% on tabs. So the alcohol prices have gone up. The food price has gone up. Your server is now making $30, $40 an hour at some restaurants. Now, this is not all restaurants, you know? So, but this, if you realize for what you're getting, you know, it's like, well, why am I paying someone $40 an hour to take an order and deliver food to me? You only see them three, four times in the course of an hour, you know? So, I mean, and these things are, there's a reason why they kid, they're not, they're not hiring because they can't find people now. They're not hiring because they can't afford them. Yeah. You know, I mean, and that's becoming an issue. So all these entanglements until I'm not, I don't have the solution, you know, I'm not the one setting these things in motion, but I'm observing these things and these things are causing law of jams. And when the small business, when you have too much government interference now, and now you have all these forced measures that they have to do that are not part of a business model, how do you run your business that way? You know, it's not sustainable, you know? And I think these stresses are really going to impact the overall economy. I mean, the S&Ps like, I'm very embarrassed, the S&Ps in the long run for the next year and a half. We haven't had a bear market in a while. And I think the earnings as soon as they dry up, they're going to strangle hold and down it goes. Yeah, it's going to be about earnings, man. We get the S&Ps back to negative territory right now down three points. Apple, of course, 10 million less phones. Teddy, we appreciate the whole wrap up the conversation, man.