 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, giving everybody welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com nightly update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Everybody had a good trading day today. So let's kind of review going back to yesterday, right? And this was kind of the most important part of what we talked about, violence versus orderly, right? So yesterday we had this really violent day and we kind of went over it last night's video. If you want to watch a little more in depth, it's only last night's video so you can go back to yesterday's session. But you can see the violence, right? The violence is pretty, you know, pretty out there, down, up, down, and obviously finishing the day lower in an overall sell cycle. And the most important part why that was such an aggressive way, wave, is because it was a, there was some sort of event, right? That was an event. And when you look at the biggest, greatest, most volatile violent markets, there's always going to be surrounding events. So if you guys remember what, for example, the mortgage crisis, market volatile, very, very aggressive. 9-11, obviously very volatile, very, very aggressive. Even when you go back to microcosmic days, you guys remember when Trump caught COVID the first time, the violence that was going on the tape that day? So you're going to see violence on specific events, right? So when you know an event, kind of tying a ribbon around yesterday's day, so if you know an event is coming and you know there's potential violence in that event, just kind of get out the way. And that's exactly what we saw yesterday, violence to the core on an event. Now fast forward to today's session. A lot of traders will turn around and go, wow, that was really aggressive sell-off on Nasdaq. It really wasn't because if you look at the way the market traded yesterday, right, violence, this was very, very aggressive. What we saw today was, and again, you start to see here once we get into the kind of 9 o'clock area, right? Here's the 9 o'clock area of the market, right? So here's the 9 o'clock area of the market. Yesterday was an event. Today was not an event. And you can see the difference between yesterday's session into today's session, right? Nice and orderly, right? Nice little moves up on a little bounces, get rejected. There's a trend for the whole day. There's nothing aggressive. There's nothing nuts. It's just the market kind of trading in intervals. And at the end of the day, when you turn around and you look towards the end of the day, nothing really stood out by a little bit of a late day bounce short covering rally. But the point was today was very, very tame. And a lot of people tied around and go, wow, what an aggressive move. Yesterday was aggressive. Today was organic. Again, what we talked about yesterday, don't confuse volatility with aggression. Yesterday was volatile. That was violence. Today was orderly. And it was average to range. And that's exactly what we talked about in last night's video. But the most important part of what we got out of today's session, again, if you look at the scoreboard, you're not going to be kind of bowled over anything. The Dow was pretty much flat. Most of the day closed down 150 points. The Nasdaq was down 150 points as well. But it kind of keeps on building on what we've been talking about now for the last four or five days. Ever since we lost the 50 day moving average on the CPI number, all we did was now continue the trend back to the downside. And the only reason why we stopped in today's action was the cues. We talked about that 280 level in last night's video. Remember, any close over 280 is no good while we close right at 280. And we made lows today of 278-81. So this becomes kind of an important area going into tomorrow, going into Monday's session. This Bollinger Band here, if they do start losing this Bollinger Band, you can see how much room you have back down. Again, am I saying we're going to go back to the June 16th laws? Of course not. And look at everything that's possible. But again, we're just trying to take it day by day based on the night's research. And we talked about last night. Last night was all about research. Stocks did close at the bottom of the range. We talked about many different companies in last night's video. We talked about your Airbnb's. We talked about Disney's of the world. And everything really started to come in today. Again, we'll get into individual, sorry, long week, pivots in a second. But the key was, and I think this is where you kind of see the turnaround from really, really good strong moves to, oh my God, even the strong stocks are starting to get hit. Look at Tesla, right? There was, you know, if you've been watching like the market for the last like four or five days, you know, there was just massive, absolutely massive out of the money short term expiration calls. They were coming for everything from the 320s all the way up to 350 short term expiration. And it felt like, right? It really did feel like this thing was going to go. But the most important part is I've always maintained this fact. And I kind of continue to kind of echo this sentiment and try to drive the point home. Don't fall in love with the stock, right? I love Tesla. I don't love it because it's Tesla. I love it because it trades like the greatest stock in the world, both long and short. And the most important part was, again, we always kind of reiterate this point in the webinar, a stock can't go up if it doesn't take out the previous channel, right? This is the previous channel, right? Got stopped, can't go up. But if it starts taking out the previous day's channel, you're going to have a shift in change of sentiment. Now, if you look at yesterday's action and again, granted, you can make an argument, Tesla took out yesterday's low because everything took out the previous day's low, right? Everything was violent. Everything was chaos. There was a purge in the middle of the streets. Nobody is safe, right? But when you came into today's action, we had a little bit of a gap down today. Tesla was harboring around yesterday's low, which was roughly $300.50, right? And the key was to any single shift in sentiment is if they could stay below the previous day's low, there's a probability that it'll finally start giving up some games. Again, nobody's going to turn around and say, well, I thought the stock was going to go down 15, 20, 30 points. It wasn't like that. The point I'm trying to make is no stock is safe. If you're ever going to have a shift in sentiment on an overall market and you turn around and go, oh, wait a minute, even the strong stocks are starting to get hit right now, it's a very, very tough sell, right? It's a very, very tough sell if you're a permable that you have to stay long and stay long and strong in your positions because, again, two things are letting you know, you're running into heavy waters. Number one, again, we continue to build below the 50-day moving average. And number two, the strongest stock in the market, which was Tesla is not the strongest stock in the market. And not only did this Tesla give back yesterday's move, right? It closed right on the 50-day moving average. And again, we all know how important that 50-day moving average is. Now, again, look at KSA. You see this light blue line? Again, if you've been watching this broadcast, you kind of know how important that 50-day is, right? So you have the 50-day, this light blue line, look what happened after it, right? Confirmed light blue line, murdered, right? Microsoft, below this light blue line, murdered. Google, below this light blue line, right, murdered. And there's a million examples. Like literally in the little example is the recent example. And again, we'll get to the individual pivots in a second. Was Airbnb, right? Today, we had a pivot on the 50-day moving average. That's the whole point. On the 50-day moving average, below this 112 area, and look what happened. You broke the 50-day moving average and look at the swan dive. Again, the strongest moves are going to come with the strongest support gets violated. And once it gets violated, you're going to get a pretty aggressive potential move because that is a near-term indicator of, hey, there's a massive shift in sentiment here and this could be a shift in power for the next foreseeable future. And that's exactly what you have. When you look at all the other names, for example, all the other indexes, you'll kind of see the same thing. The IWM lost its 50-day moving average. And again, it's starting to really kick it into gear to the downside. Same thing with S&P. S&P lost their 50-day moving average on the CPI. Look where it is right here. So it's a continuation of the same cycle, right? You have support. You lose support. You go lower. You have supply. You get above supply. You go higher and on and on and on and on. So going into tomorrow, it's very, very tough. Again, a lot of people are going to constantly looking for balances. And that's great. You're going to be looking for balances. And eventually it's going to happen, right? It's like, again, you're in the desert and you're screaming, one day it will rain. One day it will rain. One day eventually it's going to rain, right? So it's a very tough gig. If you're in a constantly counter-trend mode and you're trying to pick knives of balances that last for five minutes, I wish I did. And that's what I said. And most important part of what we do here every single day is trying to find the highest probability, right? The highest probability of what's going to happen for tomorrow. So if you look at some really good setups for tomorrow, again, I'm not looking at Microsoft. And again, it's still one of the weakest names, but I'm not looking at Microsoft. Microsoft is down a month already off the 50-day moving average. I'm not looking for Google or names like that. I'm looking for stocks that are just breaking down. I'm looking for names that are just coming out of their channels and starting to make some new potential moves to the downside. So let's talk about some things, right? Let me give you guys some ideas for tomorrow. Like, look at Goldman Sachs, right? Look at Goldman Sachs. Even though it lost its 50-day moving average and finally coming up here, this is the first close below this channel here, right? If this Goldman starts reclaiming, if the bear start reclaiming today's lower channel, you got another $10, $10, $12 worth of downside. The financials still continue to press, even though, again, rates continue to rise. Yeah, you're going to see a follow-through. Look at, for example, look at Chewie, right? Look at Chewie for tomorrow. Again, it's not going to be a very aggressive name, but this is the first close in this whole formation here. This thing took about three weeks of formation. If this thing gets underneath the Bollinger Band, it's going to start its next leg down. Look, for example, a name like, well, perfect example, Airbnb, right? Airbnb, I still think this thing goes lower, right? This thing lost a 50-day moving average today, lost the bottom of the channel here. Tomorrow is its first continuation day, so if they could confirm today's price action, look at which room you have. So the moral of the story is, don't look, and again, this is kind of the opposite, right? You always hear me talking about, especially in a bull market, don't jump out of the 10th floor, right? If you jump out of the 10th floor, you'll die. Try to find setups if you jump out of the first floor and you're wrong. You're wrong for pennies instead of wrong for dollars, and that's exactly what we're looking for. So don't look for overextended names that are down two, three, four weeks. Look for names that are just breaking down out of the channels, and if you find those channels, those are the names you still want to play. Again, look at Tesla, for example, right? Tesla has not yet begun, but what happens is if it does lose 50-day moving average, you're going to see a severe change. And again, that's an if. We don't know, right? I don't know if it loses it tomorrow. I don't know if it loses on Monday. I don't know if it loses it, right? Maybe to taste the bottom and Tesla starts rallying back tomorrow and starts rallying back the next week, but at least don't we have to be prepared? And that's the most important part of any single research for the next day. Aren't you supposed to be prepared of what potentially could happen? Because if you get, again, if you take a mental snapshot on Tesla, right? Take a mental snapshot on Tesla, you see how it's sitting on this light blue line, right? You see that? And if you look at Airbnb the night before, how it held the light blue line, right? What could happen when it violated the light blue line, right? So definitely, definitely I want to watch Tesla. So let's talk about today's pivots. Super aggressive action, right? Like really, really aggressive action today. And that was the most important part. We were ready, right? We were ready. Yesterday's sell-off was violent, right? Not aggressive. It was violent. It really did a lot of damage to a lot of traders on both sides of the market if you decided to participate. But today was day two. Can these things confirm today's channels? And we got our answer right from the word go. The video was definitely one of the bigger ones today. I played in the video and I played Tesla today. Everything else was literally at the same time. There's no way you could trade everything at the same time. And the video was awesome. I still think it goes over tomorrow. We're assuming it confirms tomorrow's channel. 130 huge level if it builds below can flush. Here was the video, right? Here's again, another example of tight channels, right? Here's the whole 130 channel here. Here's the 130. And not only did it take out 130, it took out the 126 at the bottom of the channel and closed close to the 124 in the lows. This thing starts losing the 124 tomorrow, guys. This thing has room to 121 in the 115. This thing has a lot of room down. Meta, not a big move at all. 142 needs to build to the downside. Not a big move at all. Actually reversed. It traded down to like four, you know, went down like a dollar or so and then kind of reversed back up. So if you caught it off that move, God bless. Rivian. Rivian 34, 84, if it builds below can flush. Here was Rivian, right? So here is Rivian. Same thing, right? You see how it stopped that light blue line, right? I'm calling it the light blue line because sometimes you need an audio, you need a visual to kind of get it, right? It stopped right at the 50-day moving average. Today confirmed. So it took out the 34, 84, traded all the way down to 33. This thing loses 33 tomorrow. It should get into the 3160s. So nice move on Rivian. Airbnb got murdered. Absolutely murdered. 112, 36, if it builds below can flush. They were coming for the weekly 108 puts. It closed, you know, closed at 103. The stock, you know, looks like it's getting to death. Moderna, 123, 68 needs to build. I wasn't watching Moderna. I don't even know what it did today. Moderna, 123, 68. Nothing. Looks like it only went down like 50 cents. Nothing there. Moderna, AMD got destroyed. Absolutely destroyed today. 73, 390 if it builds below can flush. Here was AMD. Here was AMD. It took out this whole channel. It took out this whole channel of 74, 68. It went all the way down to 69. This thing looks lower as well. Disney got murdered. 104, 40 if it builds below can flush. You get the picture. I mean, everything just got, everything just got hit. It took out, you know, it took out the whole channel here yesterday. Confirmed today. Went down to 102. I still think this thing goes lower. Let me just go with the one or two more here. Chewie, Chewie 32. It closed within 20 cents of the lows. I still like this thing tomorrow. This was really good. Tesla was really good for experienced traders. And the only reason I said for experienced traders, remember guys, when you're a new trader, you're trying to get the highest probability possible. Tesla was the strongest stock on the board. Obviously, we didn't anticipate Tesla was going to go from the strongest stock to the board to being one of the weakest. But that's why the whole point of not every single pivot, not every single trade is going to be, is going to inline with your experience level, account size, or pain threshold. So again, you have to evaluate every level. But again, this is kind of the whole point. Tesla, for experienced traders, 99 held twice if it builds below can flush. New traders stay away. Again, new traders stay away. This is just not for you. And again, if you're an experienced trader, this actually worked out very, very smooth. It took out the 99 level. I mean, this thing just went straight down. It took out the 99 level. Here's the pre-market low. Took out the 99 level and just absolutely imploded when all the way down to 85. So great move there. Again, I said that for a reason, right? I said that for a reason. Trust me, if you're a new trader and if the question is, how do you know you're a new trader? How do you know you're an experienced trader? Well, if you have to ask, well, that's probably not you. Remember, baby steps, not everything is for everybody. So not too shabby. Yeah, really good day. Strong day all around. Tomorrow's Friday. I would like to see a gap up for obvious reasons. I think there's a lot of value continues to be on the short side. But just remember, the market does not go straight down. There are going to be dead cat days. But remember, the hardest days you can trade in a trend, right? Are counter-reversal trades. Guys, have a great night. God bless. I hope to see all of you on the field tomorrow. Stay safe. And may you have the greatest day of all. There you go.