 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. eastern time Wednesday morning. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and the opening bell, and we have markets in red territory to kick things off. Quite the acceleration yesterday, intraday, almost right when I got off the air, right? The markets were in negative price. We were trading under $43.70. Zooming in on the chart right now, these are five-minute bars on the S&P. We make a low-last yesterday morning, literally within the 9.55 a.m. bar, so basically right when I got off the air, 23 hours ago, you're at the market of $43.66. I made note earlier in the program yesterday just talking about the wild swings. You're talking about 70 points down on Thursday, almost another 70 points down on Friday. You get an acceleration back to those highs. We get over those highs, intraday, yesterday. Remarkable. You made a run of about 50 points, 50, 60 points almost to 44.20, and then just like that, man, we were within 10 points of the lows of yesterday this morning with the S&Ps down by 20 points. NASDAQ 100, we're off by about 6 tenths percent, trading off 100 points on the dock at 15,141. You have the Dow right now off by 79 points, 34,066. That's about, excuse me, 210th percent in the red, and the Russell, particularly volatile in both directions recently, having a little coffee this morning, negative by 8 tenths percent this morning at 17.64. You got the crude contract back above $88 briefly this morning, $88.57, and just like that, we sell off about $2 in the last, what, three, three and a half hours. Since about 5.30 a.m. this morning, you see the volatility right now, 86.57, still up by $1.12 in the session for crude. How about gold? It's not stopping, man. 1963, we just hit, and look at this thing. Early Monday, we were at 19.20. Lows of yesterday, you're pushing about 19.31. We're up by $25 for 1.32 percent. You put gold on a daily chart, and you talk about some volatility, right? Over a period of a month, gold just traded down $130 and got it all back, just like that. As we're testing those highs, recent highs, I should say, on the gold contract, but you can see above that, we're pushing price levels of about 1973. Next stop after that is 2000, and maybe you're pushing those 2085 highs. We jump over to the dollar index this morning, DXY. Back to a short-term timeframe. Yesterday, some severe volatility. Today, we're getting a little bit of a bounce, 106.32 right now, up by about eight pennies on the dollar index, and we jump to notes and bonds, and it just keeps going, right? It just keeps going. The 10-year, and you know, the channels don't always work out. They did on this occasion, folks. We were talking about how it was bumping up against that channel line. When? Six days ago. What's that? Friday in particular? Yeah, Friday in... Yes, Friday. Excuse me, Thursday. Yeah, Thursday in particular. We'll back this up on a five-minute, five-day chart. There's your acceleration Thursday on that CPI print. Early in the morning, yesterday, Thursday. Actually, spike that just prior to 8.30 in the morning. You hit 108.16, and just like that, we're at 106.02 on the 10-year right now. We jump over to the two-year, basically flat, but boy, it was quite a day yesterday. We make new cycle lows in price, highs in yield in the two-year yesterday, and we're right at that level, man. 101.01. There we go. You put it in a daily. You see, breaking all the recent lows on the two-year as higher rates in play right now on a hot retail sales number, putting that in play yesterday in the market. All right, we jump around to some of the action this morning. Morgan Stanley out with their numbers. We jump over to Morgan Stanley. They got quite an acceleration yesterday on the heels of a positive market, on the heels of Goldman Sachs Bank of America with their numbers out. Morgan Stanley out this morning. Trading lower, but trading lower with the market. You are off, what, $2 right now? Is that 2.5% about in the red? Profit slides on investment bank slowdown. Wealth management asset flows slumped in the third quarter. The CFO, though, they're talking about the future and everything's pointing to a deal-making rebound. We'll see if that plays out, right? Revenue from the fixed-income trading business slumped 11%. I mean, that shouldn't be the case. Who's crushing it on fixed-income? Somebody was. Maybe we've had some real moves, man, to have fixed-income slumping. Muted fees from deal-making caused a drop in net income. Revenue of $6.4 billion from the firm's wealth management business missed the estimates. And net new assets slumped to $35.7 billion from $89.5 billion in the prior quarter. Net new assets, almost $36 billion. Still not a bad number, right? Solid performance in a mixed environment is what they're talking about. And they're seeing a backlog continuing to grow on mergers and acquisitions. Might make sense, right? Tough time to push that out potentially right now. Nonetheless, they're a little bit lower this morning off by about 3%, 2.5% right now to $78. Yeah, speaking of, right? Pushing things out. So, Instacart, stay away from this one, man. All right? You jump over to the Analyze tab on the Thinkorswim platform. You jump down. You go to $7 billion company. I believe this was valued as high as $40 billion during the pandemic. They pushed it out to the public at what, like, $10 billion or something like that? And check out the daily. Do you see any strength in there, folks? I don't see any strength in there. They pushed it out, opened it about $33, accelerated it to $43, and I just see lower lows and lower highs. And you've got to be careful, man. I was talking about it myself. There is a vast difference right now. And listen, everybody's spending money on things that would qualify as the gig economy, right? You're paying for Uber, you're paying for Lyft, you're paying for Instacart, whatever all those services are that are now available for workers who want to be in a gig economy. But there's something like Uber, which is a necessity, okay? You need a car. You need to take an Uber. Versus the luxury gig economy of saving a few minutes instead of ordering Uber. It was the other one I was thinking of there, right? In terms of Uber Eats. That's a luxury. And the luxury ones are in a tough spot right now. Instacart is a luxury for a lot of people. For some people, it's a necessity, right? You've got a family man. You've got two parents working. You've got one parent working. They can't make the trip to the grocery store. It's worth it to pay that premium. It's almost like a babysitter premium, right? If you have children, I can empathize. Okay, that's where my head goes. But many times, it's a time saver. You're paying for that time, okay? And when you're paying for the time, that's a luxury. And right now, it's a tough spot to be in because prices are so high on many things, food especially. It's a difficult task, man, for Instacart. I told you, I was using this thing every single week during the pandemic for a period of a long time. And I'm buying at least $300 of groceries a week, family of five at home, nothing too crazy, okay? Just the normal stuff, groceries, 300 bucks. And what happens? I finally just hit a tipping point. The pandemic was its own animal, okay? Tommy was born. He got out of the newborn stage, right? You know, we had all these things going on in particular in my life that made it worth it to pay for that premium. Inflation was not roaring just yet. I don't use Instacart anymore. Just stopped overnight. And think about the amount of money. I was a person pushing 14 grand to 15 grand revenue for them. That's just 300 bucks a week, right? So it's crazy how that can drop off, man. And that's a luxury that really adds up. So be careful on those equities, Instacart in particular. We jump around, we'll come back, we'll take a look at some of the other equities out with their numbers. We'll take a look at that gold contract. Stay tuned, folks, we'll be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. 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TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den. Available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We get the S&P Futures negative by about 20 points right now, trading at $43.81. You take a look at the VIX this morning. A little bit of negative action. The VIX slightly elevated to a price level of $18.40. You see the spike last Friday, up to almost $21. To talk about some of the action this morning, let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hanks. Every trading day, folks, 12 noon Eastern time right here on Tiger TV, the Schwab Network with fast market. Your host, Kevin Hanks. This is Tom White, the team at the Schwab Network. They walk you through the day's action. We're coming into earning season. And Kevin Hanks, I'm going to ask you again, man, we're back onto yields. When are we going to hit 5% in this 10-year? Good morning. Good morning. Yeah, you know, even with everything going on with geopolitics, the bonds and notes cannot rally today. That's probably not a good sign as we hit 487 on the 10-year. But here's the problem, Tommy. We're dealing with geopolitical risks, right? But we're also dealing with a pretty strong U.S. economy that we're trying to deal with. So yesterday's retail sales number was a shockingly strong number. But if you think about it, if you take a step back and look at it, think about all the labor negotiations going on right now. Think of all the wages getting pushed higher. That wages is going to lead to discretionary income. Discretionary income is going to keep retail sales elevated, Tommy. So not really the hardest path to connect the dots from labor negotiations to higher wages, higher wages to discretionary spending, discretionary spending to retail sales, Tommy. So yeah, but strong data out of the U.S. is going to keep yields under pressure. That's for sure. Yeah, I mean, you have to love the fundamentals of the economy when they're strong. I wonder how Chairman Powell is receiving all that data as it comes in with some hot retail sales. I mean, I'm not sure that's going to be the market, man. I have it up there on the thinkorswim platform. Quite the acceleration yesterday, right? At about 10 o'clock when I got off the air from my show, Kevin, 10 Eastern time, about 43-66, and you drive up to 44-25. We come within almost 10 points of that low yesterday, Kevin, already this morning. I wanted to actually ask you, I touched on the VIX right before I was talking to you. We got a spike to 21 almost last Friday. We're sitting at 1840 right now. Five days or so from that Thursday acceleration on the CPI print, 44-30 down almost 70 points. Friday you got the acceleration as well. What do you think of the VIX at 18? I mean, even on the thinkorswim platform, I got a five-minute chart up here going back about five days. You take Thursday, you had 70 points negative. You take Friday, you had almost 70 points negative again. And then from where we were last yesterday afternoon, you're talking about 40 points almost. What do you think of the volatility priced into this market when we're getting some big swings, man, in both directions right now? Well, if you look at the VIX for the last 10 days, it is elevated, right? It was down to as low as 1540 at the end of last week. It's up around 18 now, so it has gone higher. It's not as high as it was overnight when it hit 20.7, Tommy, you're right. But the VIX is still elevated, but you're right, it feels like, because of maybe the last few years, it feels low for what's going on in the world right now. And escalations and events that are going on between Israel and Gaza, I don't think there's any end to those soon. I don't think there's any type of de-escalation. I think we have to be, I think we're naive to think that VIX was gonna just go up and then just come straight back down. I think there's gonna be headlines or events that move the market. So, Tommy, you just gotta brace yourself for a very headline-driven market. In the backdrop, though, we have earnings. And the earnings, so far, in terms of financials and airlines, not great, mainly because, but United Airlines had some good numbers, but they guided lower, right? Morgan Stanley missed on some of their, some of their numbers were lower from last year, but they said, because Morgan Stanley, you can pretty much put in the same category as Goldman Sachs. Mergers and acquisitions, IPOs, raising debt, those all favor Morgan Stanley. So they see some tailwinds behind them. But, Tommy, this is a market right now dealing with a little bit of risk off, not as much as you would think so, other than gold, which is solidly strong here to start today. The rest kind of muted in terms of risk off, Tommy. I appreciate the take, man. And yeah, we saw those headlines in terms of geopolitical, right, with the hospital. I mean, their headlines are still coming. And I agree, that's just going to be probably what we deal with for some time. Not sure how that de-escalates. But as you said, man, we got earnings on the plate. We got a couple headlines coming up later in the week. Do you guys have some equities you're talking about? Excuse me, on Fast Market today at 12, Kevin. Big day for earnings today, Tommy, as we get Netflix and Tesla today after the bell. And we also get Lamb Research. So that'll keep us plenty busy today, Tommy, with those three big names. How about, can you give us a little teaser on Tesla? Everybody likes talking about Tesla, man. We all know one of the stories may be, right, the earnings. They got a lot of price cuts, man. You talk about price cuts, Tesla, holding up relatively well recently. You're sitting at 250. Give us a little teaser if you don't mind, Kevin, on your take on Tesla shares coming into their earnings. Yeah. How much has, what's the trade-off based on Elon Musk lowering prices to overall sales and profitability? We're pretty sure the margins are going to come down, right, as these lower prices pretty significantly. But what did that do for sales? And what else? And here's always the thing you've got to be ready for with Elon Musk and Tesla. What's in the pipeline? What's the cyber truck? What's an update on the cyber truck? What's an update on the robo-taxi? What's an update on robotics in general, in terms of manufacturing? So there's so many things that Elon Musk can talk about. You've got a nice trend here of higher lows and higher highs coming in Tesla. So, and if you're into technical analysis, which I'm only moderately into, you're getting a pretty big wedge formation forming in Tesla, which means something's got to give here, Tommy. So, could be an interesting couple of days here in Tesla. I was drawing a few technicals, man. I see that channel line, yeah, quite a start to the year at around 100, right, and we're trading at 254. Always something exciting when you got Elon out there, I'm sure, as he's talking up the future of Tesla. Kevin, I appreciate the time, as always, man, on a busy morning. We'll be watching Fast Market at 12 today on the Schwab Network right here on Tiger TV, and we look forward to talking to you tomorrow, man. Have a great day, Tommy. You too, folks, check it out. 12 o'clock today, and yeah, we got a couple main event stocks, man, Tesla shares. And yeah, pretty interesting, right? You look at the downtrend channel they had for Tesla coming off the highs of 414.50 back in November of 2021, and boy, you could make the case, man, that that breaks out of that channel line in July up to 300. You come back and you test that channel line now. That channel line seems a little bit high, maybe, from where the natural fit might be from the highs that we had back there in terms of not being an exact test. But taking off those channel lines, all right, as Kevin was talking about it, man, enough time has passed. We're on a new channel right now. And boy, looking at that one, I mean, Tesla might be a buy-here, man. Look at that channel line. As you're coming right down to the bottom part of that channel line coming into there, now, but as you jump over to the Analyze tab, you jump over to the Earnings tab or the Fundamentals, you're looking for about a $12 move. Not astronomical when you get the type of moves you get in Tesla, right? $12 move. What are you talking about? Only a 4.5% move in either direction for Tesla shares. You want action through Friday in terms of the options expiring on Friday. Instead of just the one-day expected move on the event that's happening, you're looking at about a $14 move in either direction. So if you're going bullish, right? What's that mean? That means you've got to get up to $267, $268, just to make your money back. If you're going volatility, that means you're paying about $7 in either side. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back for the opening. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN Educating Investors. Welcome back, folks. We get the markets open. You're looking at an S&P down by about 18 points to kick off the trading session. NASDAQ 100. We're off by 100. NASDAQ 100, off by 100. Trading at $15,140. You get the Dow barely in the red, only off 33 points right now. That's one-tenth percent. You get the Russell off a full percent. Continuing the volatility, Russell off 19 bucks. Jumping over to Tesla, so taking a real quick peek. So Tesla, jump over to the Analyze tab. They're earnings after the bell tonight. They're priced in about a $12 move. Options are pricing in. Now what's great is the market just opens. So all the option pricing is resetting itself for the open this morning. All of the option pricing, when you go into it overnight, it's just predicated on the close of the previous day. Those are not live bid-ass spreads that exist in the options market. The options market only trades essentially. And there are, when things are occasionally, certain options do trade outside of 9.30-4. I know some of the zero days to expiration. Some of the index options in particular. You got till 4.15. You got till 5 o'clock to exercise them. There's some rules that go around there. But essentially, options trade when the market's open 9.30 in the morning till 4 o'clock at night. Those options end that pricing and that's how it stays. So the market's open. Now we get new pricing. So taking a look at Tesla, you got about a $12 move priced in for their earnings. And you have about a $14 move priced in to hold the options that expire on Friday. Three full trading days from this morning. Two full trading days after the earnings event. Okay, so you can see the earnings events pricing in almost 13 bucks now as the option pricing resets itself for the open. And you're looking at about $15 of implied volatility in either direction for the weekly options which expire on Friday. So $13 of the volatility is priced in for the event tonight which is probably going to get sucked out of that volatility premium once those options go through that event as in once we get through the earnings event. You're going to see this volatility get sucked out. You'll have two days left to go and you'll still have a couple dollars of premium in there for implied volatility to go through Thursday and Friday trading. It's probably going to be a little bit higher than $2 I'm guessing. But nothing too crazy because look at the options that expire for the whole extra week out. You're only paying $5 extra implied volatility for going a whole week out. Meanwhile you're paying $13 of implied volatility to go out just for tonight's action for earnings. Now, if you want to look at a trade, right potentially. Let's do an example trade. That's what they're going to line up on Fast Market with our man Kevin Hinks. They do three example trades a show usually folks. Check it out if you want to learn about options, okay. Let's do an example trade because this one looks nice man. It's going to happen. And I like using defined risk especially for an equity like Tesla that boy you know give or take man. This thing could move $50 overnight in a heartbeat. In a heartbeat okay. They're dealing with some substantial woes in terms of pricing eating at their margins. I mean the pricing drops. We've been covering them on this program every time they announce them right. Even my friends and I talk about them in our group chat though. Man you know Tesla any time final quarter of 2022 you got taken to the cleaners by Tesla because you could buy the same car this year for probably 20 to 30% less right. You're probably not even getting what you'd I mean imagine selling your used car you got to take a $30, $40,000 haircut immediately. So that's going to eat into their margins when they drop them that dramatically. But I don't know man these technicals are in an uptrend channel we're bouncing up against the bottom line and who knows what Elon's got coming down the pipeline to talk up his future game. So let's take a look at the example trade alright. We're looking at the options to expire Friday here October 20th okay and we're trading right now $254,000. The calls are on the left here the puts are on the right. We're going to take a look at just a simple call spread above the market folks we've got about $15 of movement priced in through the close of Friday so we're going to look for about a $15 move in a bullish direction. Okay so we're paying for volatility here and we are directionally bullish okay. So we are going to buy the call and this is where we'll take a look at how this goes but we're going to look at buying the call at 255 I'm going to clear this and just show you when you're buying a call okay you're clicking on the ask to load the offer this is in the thinkorswim platform and then what's cool is you can just hold the control key and build a multi leg option and then I'm going to sell the 270 so I'm going to click on the ask while holding the control key it loads it up it's got a vertical spread okay it's a vertical debit spread and the cool part about this right now okay is that it's pretty simple math how this lines up okay these are the types of trades with defined risk that are pretty cool and the best part about this is you can do it both ways okay so you can be the person making this simple trade which is to say I'm bullish I think that the volatility priced into this equity is affordable it's underpriced maybe I'm willing to pay that right it's going to be more volatile than the market is potentially pricing in and I think it's going to be potentially bullish and the market is usually just pricing equal risk for bullish and bearish around earnings rightfully so so you're paying $5 okay you're paying $4.99 let's just take it to $5 and hold it there alright now I'm going to jump over here and I'm going to analyze that trade you jump over to analyze tab and what I love here is you jump over to the risk profile tab and here it is simple in a visual display keep your eye on the blue line here okay the red line excuse me the purple line is live as of today your profit loss and how it swings but let's say you hold this option until expiration which is this Friday's close you need to get to a price point of $2.60 to break even why is that so well you're paying $5 for the right to buy this thing at $2.55 well it's trading at $2.55 right now right well here's the kicker though okay you're doing that with the blind risk and you're capping how much it's going to cost you by then selling that right to somebody else at $2.70 so you essentially what you're doing is you're paying the $5 of volatility premium to control the price range of $2.55 to $2.70 and the best part about the simple risk award is you risk in $1 to make two that's the simple math now the problem here is is if the stock just stays at $2.55 and it's jumping around as we're talking here you lose all your money excuse me so that's the kicker and how that goes now if you say man that's crazy right you're saying why are you going to make that trade because you're going to lose $5 if the stock just stays where it's at well you got an earnings event for Tesla and that can drive some action okay so the odds that just stays where it's at for three days of trading not very high but if you like the other side of that trade and this is the best part of options folks okay because this is buying volatility okay and this is going to cost you money every single day that that trade is on you're paying money for that volatility premium that you possess okay now you say I want to be the one selling volatility okay well here's what the trade looks like you are now the person that gets paid $5 you get $5 credit you're selling a credit call spread okay and you just reverse the trade so now look what happens is you're trading at $255 right now I know we're jumping around okay you're trading at $255 and what happens well geez you don't lose money all the way up to $260 stock can trade up $5 until you lose a penny and this is just going as of expiration and then where your loss is capped they're capped at $270 that's not a bad trade or a trade either if you're bearish or to neutral nonetheless Tesla earnings after the bell but when we come back we'll talk some forex we're talking our man Teddy keg stat don't go away folks we'll be back in 3 minutes you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all 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sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC and the tiger's den you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on the weekends the tiger's den and discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well so it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ welcome back folks we get the S&P off by 23 points right now pushing basically pre-market session lows we're trading at 43.79 and we're going to jump over to our man Teddy Kakes that folks you can read Teddy's newsletter the tiger 4x report he puts out new issues every Monday you can check that out right under the newsletter tab on tfnn the tiger 4x report you can sign up for $97 comes with a 30 day money back guarantee Teddy's got a couple of outstanding webinars as well right under the services tab you're talking some options capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads we're just talking some options prior and then candlestick pattern stock and option strategies check those under the services tab Teddy Kakes that good morning good morning Tommy boy we got a lot to talk about man a lot to happen since we lost talk to you we didn't talk to you last week right so we got the whole Middle East war that's been happening where do you want to kick things off yields through the roof where do you want to start the conversation Teddy yeah I think that no matter what yields you have to look at them as being very bullish still I mean it's kind of funny I had a conversation with a friend of mine who's been down at the border trade for years years ago and we were talking about yields in the bond market because typically when you have a situation like what's going on in the Middle East especially like as strong of a situation as it is you would see think you would have flight to quality in the bonds meaning you would be buying the bond market 10 year in the 30 years and even the short terms and stuff like that and that's not happening so where is flight to quality right now well flight to quality is in the US obviously because yields are pushing higher if money is not going into the bond market in a situation like this that's where it's going to so it's definitely pretty strong for the US dollar at least supporting it at least like keeping it from pulling back which dollars do for a correction anyhow so I think that you have to really look at it that yields right now because of this situation are showing how strong this trend is and I would be very careful trying to fade the momentum of the yield curve right now especially with another rate hike looming yeah it's pretty remarkable with two weeks out today right from a Fed decision we are two weeks out today and no matter what happens potentially in this meeting I think the conversation has shifted pretty dramatically over the last couple weeks in terms of the odds of a hike we saw the two-year spike in over 5.2% we got the 10-year 4.87 I think I know you talk a lot about the 30-year in your Tiger 4x report as well pushing 109-22 just over the highs of 106 in terms of price action on the 30-year Teddy if you got people out there where were you looking for potential I know you got some breakout areas and downside in your newsletter I was checking out but for the listeners out there could you give them a little take on the 30-year I got the chart up here as we talk okay yes so for I'll pull it up real quick for the 30-year I would say very likely what's going to happen is you're going to see probably I mean because we have one more rate hike that's looming you're going to probably see the trend continue for one now as far as how much further it's going to go I think we have every bit of a good 4-5 handles left to go in the bonds so you're looking at this 110-109 area I think it's very rational that between now and the end of the year that we probably see the bonds down around the 105-106 handle area so that's still a nice move now with the volatility we've had it's not that hard to make a move like that happened now if we do get down to that area will it hold you mean like or is it going to bounce off of it I think it's probably going to have a nice bounce when we do hit that area but I would say that yeah most likely you're going to see those the yields really pushed to those levels I mean think about this I went to the bank last week and I was looking at just at the counter when I was making a deposit you know you have CDs now for three months going off at over five percent that hasn't happened in over a decade you know I mean like the fact that now it's actually when I was standing in line I'm like well okay so in this checking account why do I have this cash now sitting idly like that now you know like for the past four years especially I mean you're making like less than half of a percent you're not moving your money into a CD and locking that up and even why wasting your time but now you're looking at a situation where CDs actually are becoming something that while you're sitting on short-term cash or something like especially like real estate deals or what have you they're becoming a very viable option because of this you know so that's also competitive for banks and I think that's also going to support the yields because there's now a demand for being able to put your money away and getting an interest you know there's a theory you know put your money in a bank and actually get paid for it you know so and I think that that's something that trend is going to maintain itself and once we push these levels like I think where we're at right now we're pushing resistance eventually this is going to become support so I think that you have to look at the bond the bond market and the tenure in the short run short terms that where we're trading right now probably is going to become the floor as we move forward over the next year like a year from now you will be looking at these levels and being like who remember when mortgages were only going off at like you know seven percent six percent whatever it would be wild but but it's pretty wild where we are right now in terms of it just keeps marching on everybody seems like it's going to abate right and then we go three months forward and we're making new highs on yields and I love the conversation of CDs because I agree one thing I keep pulling up during the program Teddy is talking about even what a what a five year ladder if you're like laddering a CD can get you right now because I find it so interesting and you're pushing five point one five percent is it's ballparking around there you know if you're taking a one year two year four year five year you're getting over five percent for a guaranteed you know FDIC insured bank CD on a five year basis and you get to reset it every 12 months so you know if the scenario plays out like you're talking about right you're capitalizing that increase in yield you know you're not locking in a five year because what if like you say rates are going up dramatically and I find it so interesting and then you compare it to the S&P right and we're sitting at forty four hundred and if you do five percent over five years you're pushing fifty six hundred in the S&P which yeah there's a very real chance okay this market's over fifty six hundred and five years I get that too but risk free telling a lot of people that I can give you the S&P right now at fifty six hundred and five years and you don't risk a penny that's a scenario that in my mind you know in my adult life that I haven't had to play out which is pretty interesting and it's real money when you're above that price level so I agree crude we got to talk about crude man Middle East and play of course crude gets a little bit of a lift with the action but nothing too substantial in terms of what's going on in the Middle East we're trading at eighty seven bucks what do you think accrued at these prices I think they're definitely pretty much in a stable to you know higher mode I don't think you're going to see any real sell off in crude at all as long as this conflict between Hamas and Israel remains and here's the thing is as long as it's contained where it's at I think that crude probably is not going to spike too high I don't see it selling off I don't see it really spiking too high if this spreads with Hamas anywhere else then I think we're going to have a big problem and then I think you could easily see oil shoot up to a hundred and twenty a hundred fifty dollars like in literally a few weeks you know because if it does spread outside of Israel and Gaza Strip I mean you're looking at oil it's not just oil production but the move the mobility of oil that is produced you know and once that happens you know it doesn't matter how much oil you're drilling in the Middle East if it can't go anywhere what does that do to supply and the cost of oil you know so I think that's something you really have to pay attention to if all of a sudden you start to see any other countries involved oil I think is going to spike twenty thirty dollars very very quickly because right now you know remember years ago if any type of conflict you would see oil spread around all over the place now it absorbs it very quickly you know so as long as it's contained I think we're setting a range where the floor is going to be around eighty bucks but if we like I said if it spreads I can see oil being at easily over a hundred and ten dollars very quickly can you hang with us during the break Teddy sure alright we'll come back because we I just want to talk about maybe some of the other currency pairs that we're looking at this week with some action we'll be right back folks we'll finish it up with Teddy the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI GDX, The Dollar, Bonds South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're 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almost 25 points right now trading at 43.77 the Dow how about the Dow a little bit of a sell off you're off by 150 you jump over to Morgan Stanley on their numbers and acceleration to the downside off by more than 6% right now Goldman trading lower off by 1.7% on those Morgan Stanley numbers but we're talking to our man Teddy Kegstad we're talking some currencies we've seen the dollar jump around Teddy I want to jump to the Euro if we could real quickly Euro US dollar I know you're saying everything can always differentiate we're trading about 104.50 we've had a little bit of a chop even the last 5 10 days or so on the Euro what do you think of the action in the Euro if I can ask absolutely well right now I mean obviously the trend for the dollar has been very strong we're going to have a minor correction and we haven't had really any significant turn in the dollar except for you know a small two or three day move here there yeah and I think that right now are we can we have a nice correction yeah I think we could get back to like the 107 area as long as yield stay around where they're at if they know if they're pressing higher then I can't really see that we're going to see much of a rally out of the Euro US dollar is it trying to yeah absolutely I mean all of the crazy the New Zealand you know but what have they been doing they've been going sideways and I'll remember we do have this Fed meeting coming up in two weeks so as as long as I mean if oil stays pretty much stable within a trading range of like $10 and if the bonds in the 10 years start to stabilize where they're at and trade like for instance the bonds is around 10 area if it stays within a couple handles of that and doesn't really move and that starts to develop in a range trade then I think you could see a nice spike up where I think you could easily see the Euro get back up to like $1.0750 you know something like that can we get above $1.08 that's kind of a critical area I don't think that's going to happen especially if the Fed let's say the Fed raises rates the next meeting all of a sudden consensus is like oh they're not going to raise again until next year well slow down there we don't know what the economic numbers you know couple of weeks let alone make next couple of months you know so and I think that that's going to be very restrictive on the Euro especially I don't see it getting too much of a balance as far as a correction and I would definitely be a seller in that area well Teddy I appreciate it as always man we look forward to talking next week have a great one we'll talk to you next Wednesday man thanks Tommy take care thanks so much folks thanks for tuning in stay tuned we got our man Basil Chapman coming up next