 Last week we talked about how the first post-debate poll showed that Joe Biden got a substantial bump After he debated Donald Trump because it seemed as if a lot of people Thought that Joe Biden outperformed Donald Trump at the debate not necessarily because Joe Biden himself had a good debate performance But it because Donald Trump was so insufferable wouldn't stop talking and presumably turned a lot of people off So in that first CNBC change research poll that was taken after the debate He got a huge bump showing that he's leading by 13 points Nationally now I said at that time that you can't necessarily take this at face value because this is just one poll And it could be an outlier You know the number is more reliable from polls when you look at average polling data But now we know for sure that was not an outlier because another poll confirms that Joe Biden did in fact get a large Post-debate bump and as Richard Luz come up the Guardian explains Donald Trump's beleaguered campaign team woke up to another setback on Sunday as the president began his second full day in the hospital a new National poll showing their candidate 14 points behind his challenger Joe Biden with less than a month until election day the NBC Slash Wall Street Journal survey indicating a 53 to 39 percent advantage for the Democratic Party's nominee Injected urgency for Trump's advisors already scrambling to find the strategy for the final weeks of the campaign until the 3rd of November It was becoming clear that vice president Mike Pence who has tested negative for coronavirus and members of Trump's family Once they emerge from quarantine will assume leading roles at virtual Then in person rallies until or unless Trump himself recovers in time to resume campaigning The NBC polls showing Biden widening his lead over Trump was taken immediately after last Tuesday's tumultuous first presidential debate In Cleveland at which an argumentative president constantly interrupted both his rival and the moderator Chris Wallace Jason Miller another senior advisor to the Trump campaign said he had no concerns about Pence traveling and campaigning I doubt that because Mike Pence has the charisma of a house plans So you don't want Mike Pence to be the one campaigning on your behalf if you're Donald Trump and you're the star You want to be front and center, but the fact that he can't be front and center This is damaging and when you take into account the fact that the first debate didn't go so well for him Well, we're looking at a pretty disastrous situation now those two polls the CNBC and now the NBC news ones These are the only ones that show Joe Biden having back big of a lead But when you look at other polls, they all do show a post-debate bump The Hill and Harris X shows that he got a two-point bump the same is true for JT and an RMG Now this is in addition to the four-point bump that he got according to CNBC Which shows Biden leading by 13 points overall and the six-point bump that NBC News in the Wall Street Journal found that he got You know in comparison with their last poll a six-point jump from a credible pollster is really something now There is one poll that shows that Joe Biden actually decreased after the debate by three points This is from IBD although this pollster does usually swing to the right most times That is most polls favor Republicans slightly and since this is the only poll showing that Biden actually decreased I think that we have enough other polls to determine that this is most likely an outlier Now of all these polls Biden's lead nationally is now at 8.5 percent. That is huge So at this point in time it seems like Joe Biden is poised to win the popular vote Perhaps by a larger margin than Hillary Clinton However, as you will know winning the popular vote is not enough to win you the presidency So what you need to do is win where it counts. You need to do well in battleground states and Joe Biden is in fact Performing Surprisingly well in battleground states. He has a two-point lead over Trump in Florida a six point five percent lead in Pennsylvania a five point two point lead in Michigan a five point five point lead in Wisconsin a 1.2 percent lead in North Carolina even and a three point four percent lead it in Arizona Now when it comes to the state of Ohio a state that a lot of people believe or Republican has to win in order to claim the White House Joe Biden is leading there by one point two points now It's a narrow lead, but nonetheless it still is a lead in Georgia Joe Biden is edging out Trump here with a point three percent lead overall and even in Iowa They are neck-and-neck with Biden leading by half a point on average now in Texas Trump is leading But within the margin of error so even though a Biden victory in Texas is unlikely You know, it's not out of the realm of possibility since they are within the margin of error of each other so at this point in time Joe Biden is Looking very likely to win the presidency when the popular vote and the electoral college But there's a caveat even though he's currently doing better than Hillary Clinton That is assuming nothing changes between now and November 3rd and as we've seen 2020 is crazy We've been thrown a ton of curveballs I mean just last week would happen with Trump's tax returns and the debate that seems like a month ago, right? So the news cycle moves fast and a lot can change But if everything remains static and Joe Biden maintains this lead He is in fact going to win now There is one more caveat that I want to add even though Joe Biden has a pretty sizable lead in Some rust belt states such as you know 5% in Michigan and Wisconsin That still might not be enough Because we have to factor in voter suppression Right in states where it's really close like Georgia and he's just barely edging out Joe Biden You have to account for voter suppression and not assume that he's going to win there because voter ID laws are a thing in a Lot of states on top of that. We'll see voter purges Some ballots not actually being counted because there's a signature that doesn't match for example And a lot of ballots already have been disqualified because of that So there's a lot that we're not accounting for and just looking at these poll numbers and even averaging them out Isn't enough. It doesn't necessarily guarantee a Biden victory. It looks really good for Biden If I were anyone in this race, I would want to be in Biden's position right now But there's a lot of other factors that we're not accounting for which is why I say, you know It's not a foregone conclusion Even if it's the case that Joe Biden wins the popular vote again, that doesn't mean that you're gonna win The presidency and take the White House So you've got to account for these things voter suppression is a real issue that Disproportionately impacts Democratic Party voters because they happen in communities of color more often than not, you know Polling stations get limited voter ID laws get imposed which hurts people of color Disproportionately so you never know what can happen and you can't assume that a victory is a certainty because it's not But does it look really good for Joe Biden looking at this snapshot that we have currently? Yes, it does and with less than 30 days until the election if your team Trump You're panicking especially if Mike Pence is supposed to be the face of your campaign because he doesn't have charisma He doesn't have the appeal or the cult of personality that Donald Trump has so when you put out someone who isn't your star That's gonna hurt you also and on top of Trump's performance just overall He's turning off a lot of people and even though his his base like the die-hards the cultists love it That isn't enough to win an election So you have to expand your base and everything that we've learned so far tells us that Trump is not expanding his base He's losing some of his base some people will never abandon him no matter what because again, it's a cult But there are individuals who you know voted for Donald Trump in certain districts after voting for Obama And that's something that they're not really accounting for I think that he believes he can win Using the same antics that he used in 2016 but 2020 is an entirely different era in American politics There are so many different things now like the economy this pandemic. I mean you can't just play The same greatest hits and expect them to land expect the crowd to love it You've got to bring out new things you've got to adapt with changes and the fact that Trump isn't able to adapt In fact, he's incapable of adapting giving giving everything that we've seen You know, it looks really good for Joe Biden But again, that doesn't necessarily mean that it's a guarantee that he's gonna win because that's not the case because there are other factors That we have to account for