 Can't go wrong right to the moon right diamond hands shithands, whatever they're called, right? Usually something's gonna be happen. So that's why I try to avoid Welcome to access a trader the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success profitability and longevity Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge master your process and own your future Hey guys, give me everybody welcome to the another weekend edition of the axis of trader calm Weekend update show up. Everybody's doing well. Cheers Let's talk about the markets, right? We're winding down summer. Okay, that's kind of been the theme now for the last week or so, right? We talked about the importance Monday and Tuesday of what happens when you have a contracting cycle Everything goes sideways the ranges are obviously getting tighter and tighter And it's more of a waiting game for your specific stocks You are specific group that you trade to kind of give you a signal to wake up and Monday and Tuesday were very Really painfully slow, you know, you had you know, you had some of these tech stocks You know moving up maybe a dollar maybe 70 cents. They were just all trading this really tight channel and the continuing point The reiteration for Monday and Tuesday session was just wait, right? Just wait distribution usually lasts about a week And if you guys remember Going back to like Wednesday of Thursday of the previous week. We already started seeing these channels Start to shrink so it's just kind of a matter of time and the key point to this was and especially to newer traders Is you don't need to trade every single day. You don't need to trade every second of the day If you don't have, you know, 38 positions on by 931 I promise you the day is not over and just relax, right? Just relax take a deep breath There shouldn't be any FOMO. There shouldn't be any, you know Mental thought of this is the last day of trading I have to put on every single position at every given time Every stock is moving. I have to be in everything Right take a deep breath slow down. It's a long-term game The more time passes the more screen time you get you're gonna start to realize very very quickly that you don't need to trade Every single day in those days that you see that channels are contracting. You just relax. You can just relax gather up data Reinforce your opinion of what's about to happen next and kind of wait for that again Like we talked about Monday and Tuesday session that underhanded pitch to wake up And the common denominator was for Monday and Tuesday. We didn't see any option flow zero Okay, there was no institutional flow in any tech stock names and we were just kind of drifting, right? Just drifting people are on vacation. We all understood that and it was just a matter of time But we just didn't know when that time was gonna come was gonna come on Wednesday Thursday Friday Next week after Labor Day, when was this finally cycle of the contracting channels gonna come to an end and start to expand? We got that answer very very quickly Come Wednesday. Okay. We saw the first sign Out-of-the-money option flow in a lot of names and not they weren't just coming for, you know 30 grand bets 60 grand bets 80 grand bets 14,000 off bets they started coming, right? They started coming you started seeing Apple they were coming for The 149 150s the 155 for the following week He started seeing even when the video is very very quiet He started seeing a really aggressive option for all again We'll get to all the individual pivots in a second but You started seeing really good option flow you started seeing repeat buyers coming in of The 820 205 calls in the video ahead of earnings a lot of aggressive buying you saw Tesla with a really long consolidation throughout the whole week Very long actually two weeks finally starting to see 730 750 short-term Exploration you started seeing Facebook, right? They were coming, you know for the 380s They were coming for short-term expiration. They were coming from Microsoft the 290s It was just a matter of time that everything was going to wake up the question was when and this is the greatest thing About being in control of your trading just understand especially if you're a new trader and I've been I've been saying this for years You don't trade because the markets open you trade because you're getting value because you have your edge because you have the Stocks that you've been trading for years and years and years or in some cases for your new traders months and months and months They finally wake up. They finally have a pulse and when the options market gets started again Again, you don't have to be an options trader to understand this well when the options market starts fueling up again They start coming in with pretty decent size And they're going out of the money really aggressively out of the money with short-term expiration Usually the underlying security is going to wake up eventually and that's exactly what we saw Wednesday Super aggressive day on Wednesday if you guys all know especially for you guys have been watching this broadcast There is no There is no video Thursday nights. I usually relax Thursday nights kind of get my center Recharge my batteries so I can be fresh in the morning. We'll show you all the continuation pivots and second from Thursday It was a very aggressive day, but Friday set up Until be a really aggressive day and we'll talk about it again in a second Really aggressive technology was the key. They all woke up not all of them But the ones that we were watching they pretty much all woke up and it's setting up to be really good prices And good potential going into next week now is everything looking great absolutely not right if you look at Amazon Again, it still hasn't recovered from its earnings. If you look at Netflix You know not really recovered I had a you know had a little bit of spark on Friday, but hasn't really recovered you look at Roku has just been getting just destroyed right especially Since you know some since those recent highs about a month ago just really really destroyed earnings didn't help You got the stay-at-home stocks not participating zoom Peloton look like you know complete, you know complete garbage You have the Chinese stocks looking, you know terrible look at Baidu right look at Baidu Look at a name like Alibaba, although it has Certain days of upper the stock is just not tradable anymore until they kind of figure out what the hell what they want to Do with listing and all that stuff is just not tradable, but there's a flip side to this There is it you know There's an aggressive nature on a lot of names that did well on earnings or actually just didn't do horrible I think that's the best way of saying it and they're doing very very well Tesla attempted to break out on Friday Got rejected again I will say this much out of all the pivots on Friday This one had the hardest probability the reason why I say that I don't know if you guys remember this You probably don't fully guys who do watch these videos religiously you kind of you kind of remember you guys remember I did a video and if Kyler or Kenny what was doing the video editing to kind of find the video I did I did a mention on a company called wish and there's nothing to do with the fact the blew up I only found out that it blew up on I only found out that it'll only blow I don't follow this stuff So I only found out this thing blew up on earnings yesterday But if you guys remember I did a video somewhere around It was somewhere around June that I felt like everybody on social media was looking at this $15 area like literally all retail Everybody and I made a joke back then I think my mother called me up and say hey What do you think about buying wish at 15 and the problem is when everybody's on the right side of the market? Usually something bad is gonna happen. So kind of fast-forward, right? So we were trading Tesla for the whole week We caught this really aggressive pivot on Thursday session from the 7-12 pivot you can see here We're right here. You see the 7-12 pivot that really set the tone for Friday But all you kept on seeing like Friday morning Thursday night over and over again watch the 727 on Tesla Watch the 727 I'm talking about you literally saw Everybody tweet that price usually when when I'm trading Tesla There's a lot of sneaky channels and nobody's really looking at and I could take advantage of but like you just Saw literally everybody 727 727 727. I sway my poodle called me downstairs. He goes Oh, it's 727 still the poodle it's still the pivot. So, you know, it took out 727 it went to 728 Got got rejected in seconds. I'm talking about got rejected in seconds went down to like 720 We actually bought it on the on the on the remount back at 727 for a push into the 730 But this is kind of what my point is on a crowded trade When you're in a crowded trade and again, there's nobody was wrong 727 was the spot on Tesla But the problem is and we've said this for years and years and years when Everybody's on the right on one side of the ledger like literally and people just waking up to never traded Tesla before just never Traded any stock before and they're all trading it on one side of the market Something is usually gonna bad gonna happen and from what I saw, you know, we tried Tesla twice on Friday I know a lot of you guys came in long. So it wasn't really that big of a deal I bought off the opening range. It ran up like two two and a half dollars in seconds and then it got stuck So I got out of it really quickly Breaking but we kind of anticipated that happening just because there was so much Social media presence on that number So I wasn't shocked but when it reclaimed it back at 727 got long again went to like 730 and change which you got rejected off the linear regression line But at least now I have a sneakier channel to kind of watch the stock into next week But that's kind of the point folks and again, you don't have to be even trading the stock But when you see people talking about the same stock at the same price and you see everybody talking about it Usually, you know, they're not wrong But there's usually a higher probability that something is gonna go wrong along the way of that entry and you know, we saw that With Tesla on Friday and you constantly see that with other names Throughout your career. So just be careful when you see everybody talking about the same stock at the same price at the same time Can't go wrong, right to the moon, right diamond hands shithands, whatever they're called, right? Usually something's gonna be happen. So that's why I try to avoid the really really aggressive Crowded trade so going into this week again lucky You have to be bullish again for all the names that I mentioned that look crappy There's a lot of names that look really really good where it's stone throws away From all time highs again on the cues. We are stone throws away I have this thing this thing's just been melting up You can see how tight it has been going and it's been really really meant melting up You guys remember we were talking about the IWM, right? Still hasn't reclaimed that 125 level on the 50 day And the ironic part about it is look how strong some of these stocks are so many names are strong and The Russell is not even participating compared to everything else. So I can just imagine right going into the fourth quarter I think we talked about this on the Tuesday and Wednesday night video Well, what do you think is gonna happen? What do you think? Well, how do you this? What do you think the probability is of a fourth quarter rally if the IWM eventually does reclaim the 50-day moving average and joins everything else? With other than that you have a lot of these asset classes doing really really well, especially the Bitcoin Crypto names have been going out of their minds. Obviously the beta names have been very very strong The banks have been on a runaway train They had that little bit of a pullback on Friday, but they've been on a runaway train Obviously that is a play on interest rates eventually going to start to rise. So you got a perfect storm, right? You got banks strong you have technology strong and if the Russell the smaller cap names Kind of reclaimed that 25 level you're gonna just see a full onslaught of a fourth quarter Bull stampede so really really aggressive week this week knock on wood I was so happy after that first two days of the week That was so damn painfully slow that everything eventually woke up and that's exactly what happened So let's talk about let's talk about Friday's pivots, and then we'll talk about some names that I like for this week Again, you could you could just see this so here was the pivot remember there's no video on Thursday night, so Thursday there was a really sneaky pivot on Tesla 712 for experienced traders only if it can build it Could finally wake up remember there's a bunch of other areas that needs to clear obviously cleared out everything So it kind of led to Friday's big number of fantastic move yesterday took out five days worth of selling 727 continues to be a big number it needs to confirm and that's when kind of everybody was looking at the stock and only went up a few points Before it got rejected on Thursday night apple Thursday session, excuse me apple 148 huge level rejected three times a daily needs to build You know it's still sitting around that 149 levels So I'm about a buck buck and change but that 150 level on apple is gonna be really really big Going into this week. You see it got rejected here several times So this one definitely definitely keep an eye on look guys. I know some of you guys Are still long from Thursday off that 148 level. This looks really really good just a matter of time Thursday again Thursday, you can see how big that Thursday session was 286 big level right this is Thursday session 286 big level needs to build they're coming for the 290 weeklies even the end of the month 300 calls and then obviously for Friday's notes nice casual pop on Wednesday 289 289 needs to build for expanded move here with snow Right here with snow so it on Thursday it took out this 86 took out the 89 went to 92 this thing looks higher. This thing looks like it wants to press that 300 levels. So really good name there Etsy right we talked about this on Thursday session 194 50 195 needs to build the 50-day supplies around 97 the macro trade starts above 97 and my notes a gun for Friday that exactly we discussed now needs that 197 base for macro and here is Etsy right here is Etsy you can see why exactly this 97 right so took out the 94 and a half 95 trader right to supply right which is the 97 area guys for this week keep an eye on Etsy This thing can just get above and close above 97 You got a you got a gap fill only at 210 maybe even the 220 so keep an eye on Etsy for for this week Facebook again, you can see how beta reacted really really well Especially the last couple of days Facebook rejected 363 twice needs to build here was Facebook, right? So it took out the 363 level you can see here on the 60 minute chart took out this whole 363 level the only reason why it stopped Right at supply is because well there's supply usually happens. So you have a bigger macro level approaching approaching Facebook for this week Put up about a $2 move on Friday But you have this big macro level that's ahead on Facebook's if everybody everything gets strong social Facebook Microsoft 290 needs to build again these guys one by one. They're waking up folks one by one So here is Microsoft took out this 290 traded to 293 this thing looks like it's gonna test the 300 level in the next couple of weeks Microchips stopped exactly at 52 a little bit thin of a thin of a name. I'm not really feeling this one Amazon never got the 3316 Pen I still like guys watch pen for this week. I get it. You got football season starting. You have the MLB Down the stretch you have college football starting watch pen look at this channel here on pen right off the bottom Right if pen and again, it's nowhere near it yet But seven alert this thing can get above 75 and again, it's still $4 away, but if pen can reclaim 75 I think it's gonna wake up. So watch that as well Dog dog went absolutely nuts 131 50 132 Needs to build here was dog DDOG So it took out the 31 50 32 and traded all the way up to 37 and a half I still like it this thing gets above 38 you should get another move up So again, you can see big big moves really really strong moves thing and take on the way 135 38 next stop it went to 37 and a half Microsoft looking strong put up a $3 up $3 candle Destroyed that with 291 55 went to 293 Andy again, this is the power of option flow. This is my point You don't need to be an options trader to understand that there's a significance of option flow A block comes in for 5000 5000 calls traded For next week's 117 any close over 110 is huge. It needs to reclaim here was AMD Right off that aggressive call buying on a oops not amc big difference AMD so here's the 110 it took out the 110 Went to nearly 112 over 112 this thing is gone So keep an eye on that but big big moves one after another after another Facebook 365 on deck here comes the 310 calls coming in on November. Remember option flow Really does dictate on the line security movements. Here comes the 130 for january is on amd Sparking it up one by one 112 on deck Good stuff, you know excellent moves excellent moves Just a friendly reminder again for all you guys who are planning to join us Over the weekend, please watch the workshops. This is not a basic A basic strategy you could just find on youtube. There's a lot of moving parts, you know, we're we're It's so consistent. You have to be very very specific and what you're doing So please please just watch the workshops before you come in on monday on the video 201 needs to build Again repeat 205 call buyers coming in one by one by one. I still like this thing, you know, it closed around 202 I think this thing reclaims that 202 area. You could get a push ahead of earnings Let me give you guys a couple of names. I I like Going into this week. Keep an eye on this open Again, not usually a name that I would look at but it had a really really big move on earnings Rested it might go sideways for a couple of days, but if this thing could just take out these earnings highs You got it. You know, you have a nice channel to fill what I like about it I had this monster move on huge expansion volume And you had a nice rest area here with about a third of the size Keep an eye on this thing to attack the top of the range here Look at nvax right nvax looks very very strong. If you look at what You know what this delta variant is doing all these, you know, all these stocks are really starting to pop modern I have this magical Run bntx have this magical run, you know, keep an eye on this thing This thing starts taking out this whole channel here nvax could explode as well Um, let me see what else I want to talk about. Look at victoria secrets. How you doing? Right victoria secrets. Yeah, it looks looks like they they got spun spun off I think I think they were owned by limited brands. They got spun off again You know a nice tight channel on victoria secret. That's what I said, right? This thing confirms this channel Who knows maybe this thing could expand as well Not everything to the long side, right? You have zoom looks like it wants to break down. You have peloton Looks like it wants to break down. You got Baidu looks like an inch away from falling off the end of the earth So there is value on both sides For me, at least the value is on the long side But again, it's very very quickly to shift gears and all that good stuff comes with it guys I'm a blessed remainder of your weekend. God bless. Enjoy the weather Especially for all of us in the northeast. We know what there's coming. So let's soak up the sun and enjoy