 Tonight is a really fun slate for daily fantasy baseball because I think we can have our cake and eat it too There are some really good high-solid pitchers Including shouhei otani on tonight's slate and there's also a game of course field but there is a very simple path using both those options and sure they'll be popular but You know guys want to have fun sometimes and I think that we can make that happen on tonight's slate It is a delight to break down We're gonna do that for today discuss which sound which high-solid pitchers to prioritize How we can jam in course feel about breaking the bank and much more to get you ready for Wednesday night Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonis. I'm a senior writer and analyst for number fire here to break down Wednesday's eight game main slate With locks up for 705 p.m. Eastern for today The lone weather note on this slate is that there is a good chance of rain in Oakland For the A's and the Mariners the rain odds do decrease as a game goes along so I check back on that later That's the one game that could be a bit sketchy and I think it's actually a little bit in risk So we'll talk about a picture in that game later on and potentially a stack as well But just keep in mind that Mariners A's could be at risk to terrain out in Oakland We're gonna break down the pitching preview and stacks and more in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Our PGA DFS breakdown for the Wells Fargo Championship is now posted over on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed breaking down Studs value plays roster construction and much more to search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your Podcast hit subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating as well The biggest horse race of the year is here And there is no better time to get in on the action on Fandal racing because right now all customers can get a no sweat Derby bet up to $20 the means you'll get up to $20 back if your win bet doesn't win The Fandal racing app is super easy to use safe and secure and when you win you get paid fast So don't miss out the Derby is coming up this Saturday Just visit racing and dot fandal calm for your chance to get a no sweat derby bet up to $20 on Fandal racing That's racing and dot fandal calm age and residency restrictions apply offer valid on first derby win wager Refund issued in non with probable racing site credit that expires on June 12th, 2023 restrictions apply See terms at racing and dot fandal calm gambling problem call 1-800 gambler if you want some thoughts on the derby to talk to Christina blacker of Fandal TV to get her read on this year's field She did talk about a horse. She likes to win broke down the favorite forte as well That's over on the cover in the spread podcast feed and on the Fandal YouTube page later on today Pitching preview for this Wednesday main slate show. Hey, Ohtani comes in with the highest salary on Fandal His salaries 11-1 followed by Marcus Strowman at 10-5 Logan Gilbert 98 Shane Bieber is 96 Kyle Gibson 93 with Dylan Cease Louie Varlin and Alec Maneuwen as the others at $8,000 or higher Now this is not the world's Deepest pitching slate because Shane Bieber is struggling right now Kyle Gibson Not the highest upside guys throw them at the highest upside guys cease and kind of a funk Which means I think we can justify just putting Shohei Ohtani at the top of our list and figure out the Rest later, I do think Logan Gilbert is in his tier as we'll discuss later on but any night We could we can just you know close our eyes news Ohtani never a bad thing now This is not an easy matchup here Ohtani is facing the Cardinals who have a 104 WRC plus against righties They're striking right is 20% so it is a tough spot and it is also one of the warmer games on this slate But Ohtani is just so good right now now He did let up three barrels and two home runs last week against the A's Those though were the first barrels and the first home runs He has let up all year long. It has been an insane run for Ohtani He's been throwing more sliders and fewer splitters across his past 14 starts so a 14 start sample basically half a year He has a 1.63 ERA. That's absurd His peripherals aren't quite as good, but his skill interactive ERA is still 3.49 He leads the slate with a 31% strikeout rate in that time and that's impressive I think the most impressive thing about Ohtani in this 14 start sample though is that his hard-hit rate allowed is 27% if you look at the other guys on this slate in their most relevant samples Nobody else is within 8 percentage points of Ohtani So he throws off the color grading on my spreadsheet because he's been so good in that area So Ohtani get strikeouts. He suppresses hard contact. He's elite We can accept that even in a tough matchup Ohtani is our top pitcher of the slate for tonight Now with that said I do think that Logan Gilbert is an Ohtani's tier as mentioned and part of that is the matchup Ohtani facing the Cardinals. That's tough Gilbert facing the A's not as much A's have a 25% strikeout rate on the current active roster against righties this year minimal power So that helps But it's not all matchup base because Gilbert does plenty himself as well We're up to five starts on Gilbert with his new splitter that he has and In that five start sample 3.04 skill interactive ER a 30% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate the bad about data not on Ohtani's level, but it's not bad and a lot of times with splitters You can see pretty rough bad at bald data. That has not been the case for gil I Did for seven point us tonight? Which is actually a bit more than Ohtani now the reason I have Ohtani ranked high is the bad at bald data is so good That I feel like long-term. We're gonna see Ohtani outperform Logan Gilbert, but Gilbert salaries lower better matchup Gilbert is dealing with reins. Make sure you check back on that. I would say it's Ohtani 1a Gilbert 1b I don't often put guys in Ohtani's tier unless it's like you're a call or whatever So putting him in that range is a pretty big compliment to Logan Gilbert So to me, it's Ohtani 1 Gilbert 2 Nobody else really in the discussion for the top two pitching slots for the value play Dylan sees really struggling I used him as a pitcher last week and that did not go very well But his salary is down to $8,900 and I think that does open the door to use him tonight Sees his face in the twins Which is not a perfect matchup, but it's also not the end of the world the twins will strike out They have a 24% strikeout rate against righties and it's not as a cease is not getting strikeouts That's not been his issue so far this year strikeout rate is 26 percent down from 30 percent last year So it is down, but it's not awful especially on this slate. I do think the velocity is concerning for cease he's down about a mile per hour across the board from last year and it's not trending up either which is Concerning because a lot of times we can see low velocity in colder temperatures. It hasn't gotten a lot warmer I know last week for cease in that game against the rays a lot of the temperature was still low So maybe that's why the below is low but You know, it's not getting better and that's a bit concerning for me The numbers I cited above though the 26 strikeout rates are from this year with the velocity being down He still has a relatively high strikeout projection of 6.4 He's just letting up too many walks too much hard contact and that could bite him here because the twins getting healthier Has some guys who can bang that's definitely a concern Ceases 6.4 projected strikeouts ranks third behind otani and Gilbert for tonight It's enough for me to use him given the decrease salary if he were let's say $9,800 I probably wouldn't do this. I mean the same salary as Gilbert. I would just say No, thanks, but he's worth a shot. The twins offense has had its ups and downs for sure So I think cease works at 89. Uh, definitely okay with him Well, I'll talk about one more value play in things to watch But to me this slate is all about otani and Gilbert and large part because I can get there Part of the reason I can get there is because the bats that I want most at course field come with low salaries Let's talk about the stacks here for this Wednesday slate and we talked yesterday about cores I wanted just one side and that side did not do very well the brewers did not do much in that game But tonight I want both and I think both the rockies and the brewers are the top two teams for stacking tonight I'm gonna rate the brewers higher. So we'll discuss them first But we'll talk about the rockies after that the brewers facing Kyle Freeland who has come back to earth after his really nice start to this year He's left three plus earned runs in now three straight games And one of those was on the road So not a course field when we look at everything together the three good stars with the three bad ones We can stack against the profile. It's a 5.08 skill interactive erray for freeland 37 percent hard hit rate allowed it's about average, which is not what you want a course field You want better than average 45 fly ball rate. So again, you take those numbers put them at course field We can get some fireworks for sure The brewers are not good against lefties. Uh, they are Pretty bad a lot of strikeouts this year a lot of strikeouts last year But they do have some guys who can hit so I feel good stacking them here Netting the brewers do great out pretty well from that perspective the brewers the big uh ticket option here for me Is a guy who has been injured until yesterday tyrone taylor came off the aisle last night Started against a righty, which says to me he's probably gonna play against lefty And I hope he gets a good spot in the order because I will go bananas if he does taylor really good power 42 fly ball rate against lefties in his career. It was 44 last year with a 200 iso and again, that's not a core Is this is uh, you know looking primarily milwaukee If we get taylor batting eighth at $2,500 I will use him and be happy about it If we get taylor batting higher in the order, which I think he probably will I might put him every line up. That's kind of where I'm at with tyrone taylor. Um, I'm very excited here I like taylor for a pretty long time because of the power Potentially to my own detriment, but I think tonight it just makes a lot of sense. So tyrone taylor Put him at the top of the order. Let this guy eat I think that he makes a lot of sense and is a very good play for tonight So tyrone taylor is like the guy for me on this late even above otani and gilbert. I just adore him for sure now The rockies are facing eric lauer also a good matchup and I said a bit less faith in their offense Which is why they're lower than the brewers, but they are in the same tier for tonight The reason they're in the same tier despite the fact I don't like the rockies offense is that lauer is still struggling He's been letting up tons of fly balls in hard contact this year And it's led to a 5.19 er a his expected er a baseball savage is actually even higher at 6.19 And there's room for it to get worse because he has just a 7.9 percent swing and strike rate So his already low strike out rate could go down even more if that strike out rate does go down more His hard contact issues be even more concerning The rockies definitely off to a tough start this year a 68 w rc plus against lefties and we You know can definitely be annoyed by that But I would not be shocked if that number goes up in a big way for tonight So very high in the rockies here do like them quite a bit The tyrone taylor equivalent within this rockies lineup is randall richard for a couple reasons. The first one is Just came back. So there's that equivalent low salary 27 Gritchick did not have a great rehab since But he has made some hard contact and this u plate appearance in the majors He's not striking out a concerning amount yet So with gritchick at 27 and taylor at 25 I think he's in that course field Pretty easily while using otani or gilbert especially gilbert. So to me we can have our cake and eat it too I'm very into that. So to me. I think the rockies and brewers Very stackable even when you decide to go with a high salary pitcher for tonight Outside of course field. I feel like the top stack tonight has to be the cubs They're facing jake ervin who is coming up to make his debut for the nationals last year Was his first year back off an elbow injury good to see him make it through the entire year fully health And he pitched really well in high a when he first came back He got moved up to double a earlier promotion there and not a shutdown there for ervin He had a 4.7 90 array across 15 starts in double a his strike area is acceptable But a lot of fly balls that year Where he was in high a and double a was his age 25 season We saw ervin make five starts in triple a this year is age 26 season before his motion He has a 5.30 exit in triple a strike outright pretty low at 20 and it comes with a 9.4 percent swinging strike rates We also saw ervin walk too many guys down in triple a and now He has to come up to face big league batters and it's not just generic big league batters The cubs have been very good against righties so far this year with a 114 wrc plus a 165 iso Not that many strikeouts I think they're probably going to give him some issues for tonight and the bullpen and defense behind him are pretty poor So if ervin Does okay We can still get some points after that via the bullpen and the defense it comes to be facing So cubs are not on the level of course field stacks I think that they're definitely a tier below them But I think there's still a really solid option here and they do have some value plays I know a lot of the guys here for the cubs are high salary, but Seiya Suzuki comes a little low salary here and he hasn't been great since he came off the il But he does have a 51 heart hit rate Not a lot of strikeouts and the strikeouts have been decreasing The further he gets removed from that il stance We did see Suzuki show off some power last year was willing to run has not done that Well, he's run twice. He's gotten caught both times, but he hasn't been as willing to run so far I think he saw that upside in him. It is a bit of a leap of faith He hasn't shown a lot so far this year, but he's $2,900 really good stack I think that he makes sense if you did a one off on this cubs team I think Suzuki could be a worthy consideration for that spot Let's go to things to watch and mention before there was one more value play I wanted to discuss I did get some thought to louis varland for the twins against the white socks He has never been a high strikeout guy, but this year somehow varland is throwing gas His fastball velocity 96 miles per hour. It was 93.8 last year His slider velo is up three miles per hour and he's throwing that pitch a ton So he's a very different picture than what he was last year when he was a low strikeout guy He made one star in the big leagues came against the Yankees had a 14.5 percent swinging strike rate This time he's facing the white socks pretty chilly temperatures in chicago for today I think he's worth considering at 85 if you want to go kind of weird I think he's more of like a multi entry guy if you want to find ways to differentiate You want to load up on chorus field without going the full route of the otani or gilbert way I think that varland could be a fun way to differentiate without being Fully fully dumb. It is might be dumb, but maybe not fully dumb. We'll phrase it that way I'm okay with the oral snites actually pretty okay with them. They're kind of in the same tier as the cubs personally They're facing zack ranky who doesn't seem to be fully right right now Lot of hard contact this year. This is also the warmest game on the slate in kins city So I like the old the o's quite a bit if this were a normal state Slate with no course field or if both sides of course field worms attract as they are the auras would probably be a top three stack so They're in the same tier as the cubs for me for tonight The mariners viable for stacking again assuming that the weather winds up being okay in oakland They're facing jp serious who hasn't had great results so far this year But this one is more about the bullpen for the aids which might be the worst of all time I mean it's just it's like it was like 2016 or so The reds had like a hideous bullpen where you'd stack against them even when they had like okay starting pitchers Sears let's up fly balls and hard contact on top of that So This is as much about the bullpen as it is about sears The mariners salaries aren't too bad. Um, definitely can get behind that I would downgrade them if Julio Rodriguez can't play but overall the mariners fine to consider For stacking for tonight. Let's finish up here with some dinger calls I typically try not to do both that course fields But I want to do both a course field for today given that there are lower temperatures elsewhere I like the mattress of bull teams both guys are bull teams facing guys to let up a lot of fly balls On a decent amount of hard contact. So sorry. We're both going both the course field. The boring one is cj crone Crone has been I mean just like his typical self. He hasn't been like outstanding or anything But does that six home run so far this year one of those came a couple nights ago It seems like recently been hitting the ball pretty well So we'll go cj crone for the boring one. It is about as boring as can be but you know It is what it is the fun one. I got a ride with tyrone taylor Fresh off the il $2,500 again, even if that's eighth I will go hard at him for tonight because I believe in the talent like the power $2,500 good stack So even if that's eighth still in on tyrone taylor if he bats higher than that We are Full on pants off and going hard at tyrone taylor for tonight. So home run calls are cj crone and tyrone taylor That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot as mentioned If you want some pga dfs thoughts for this week check it out over on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcasts and why are there if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating as well If you want to check out a video version of the solo shot You can find us over on the fando youtube page shout-outs all of you watching there right now with the thumbs up button We appreciate all of you as always if you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fando podcast network at fando podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mlb dfs lineups We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down thursday's slate This has been the solo shot right here on the fando podcast network