 It's a presentation of TFNN, The Morning Market Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Welcome folks, I'm Tommy O'Brien, company alive from TFNN. We get a little bit of an afternoon edition of the Morning Market Kickoff, 2pm Eastern Time. We got Fed Day and the Consensus is higher for longer, seems like that's the quick takeaway. We got a lot more action to digest though, markets pulling back, we have the S&Ps right now. Basically flat. Every point moved to the negative side on the S&Ps. You zoom in on the action on a 10 minute basis, we kicked off the Fed decision right at about 4500, you drive down to 4480, we've bounced a bit from that level, we'll go over what the Fed is saying NASDAQ slightly lower as well. We got a jump to no 10 bonds and boy, you talk about moves man. There is your 10 year, the 10 year trading at about 109.06, but how about the 2 year man? Higher right now, pushing levels that we have not seen on a yield basis since 2006, as it seems like they are staying higher for longer right now, we'll go over the specifics, so what do we have? We got higher yield, you got dollar strength, we'll see if it all holds, the dollar above 105 from about 104.75 to kick off the decision, you S&Ps down about 7, so the market. We got higher rates, dollar strength, market weakness, Dow in the positive by about 117 points, NASDAQ in the negative by about 410%, they're the leader on the downside rate sensitive to put it lightly, and let's just go over some of the headlines, I got the Bloomberg live feed up here, in terms of what we're talking about, you kick things off, so here we go, what do we got? The important headline number is that rates stay the same, okay, let me get that number for you exactly. We're talking about rates staying the same, for 5.25 to 5.5% is the number, now some of the specifics they get into here, there's a lot to digest, we got about 20 minutes, we're going to be Aaron, Chairman of Powell's press conference live at 2.30, right here on Tiger TV, so don't go away folks, that's going to be an interesting one as well. When you talk about more hikes, okay, you have 12 of the 19 Fed officials talking about that they predict another hike, you have seven of those officials saying that they will stay where they are. One of the interesting things is, when you talk about the growth projections, okay, now growth has increased, so all expectations were that they were going to increase the growth projections, median projection for economic growth this year, 2023, jumping to 2.1% from just 1% in June, officials significantly reduced unemployment forecast, they're looking at 4.1% now, as opposed to 4.5%, Amazon helping that out with 250,000, as I mentioned 12 of the 19 expect one more rate hike this year, when they talk about, and there it is, the two-year, almost 5.14%, that is quite a yield in terms of a two-year basis, man, I've been talking about when you're laddering CDs right now on a five-year basis, you're getting over 5%, we'll see where we go from there, how about talking about, they now see the federal funds rate by the end of next year at 5.1%, okay, hear that, by the end of next year, 5.1%, that is up from 4.6% in June, that means by the end of next year, they're basically anticipating two additional hikes are within the market, as opposed to where they thought they were going to be in June, they do not expect to cut rates next year by as much as they thought they would, that might be one of the quick takeaways that is hitting this market, and there it is, the increased median forecast by the end of next year, that's going to get a lot of press, I'm sure Chairman Powell is going to get a lot of questions about that, let's see, just jumping through the lines here, policymakers still see the benchmark rate at 2.5% over the long haul, they were thinking maybe that that should be raised, not quite the case just yet, officials have kept that longer run estimate at 2.5% or lower since 2019, there's your dot plot, we'll jump back past that for a moment, we talked about the growth in 2023, they pushed that up to 2.1% from 1% in June, they knew it was going to be increased because we've had increased growth since June, but that's quite a raise in a period of about three months from where they were, excuse me, fully on board with the soft landing, upgrading its view of GDP 2.1% for this year and 1.5% for growth next year, excuse me, yeah, and higher for longer, I mean, there's only so many times we can say it right, but that is going to be the takeaway here, 10 year treasury yields aren't changed much, but the two year man, check out the two year, when you put it on the charts, S&Ps hanging out pretty much where we were on that first move, we'll jump to yields yet again, and boy, I love doing these half hours, man, this is the quickest half hour in television, folks, when there's just so much to digest here, you got the 10 year basically flat from where we were yesterday, you do pull back about 12 basis points because we were higher, but check out the two year, you do not get these types of moves on the two year often, folks, we just have the two year trade from 101.15 down to 101.09, you are off, what, five, six basis points, that is a move on a two year basis, folks, to put it lightly, so essentially there are an equal number of officials expecting 2024 rates of 4.875 to 5.125 compared with the current level of 5.625, that implies 50 to 75 basis points of cuts going into the meeting, the market was looking for about 85 basis points of cuts, so not quite what the market was looking for, again, a little bit higher than the market was looking for, let's see, the lower their view of unemployment rate for the next several years, again, consistent with its view that we will get a soft landing without too much harm to the labor market, the policy statement retains the same language as before about the doubts about powerful, about how powerful the impact will be of cumulative tightening to date, the quote is, tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation, the extent of these effects remains uncertain, uncertainty. So we got 17 minutes till the chairman speaks, the market anticipating, to say the least, and we got higher yields, we got the S&P off by five, all things considered, not really a mammoth move, right, we're right back to where we were trading at about the same exact time yesterday, 2pm Eastern time, market was at 44.84, guess what, we're at 44.84 right now in the S&Ps, but yields a little bit of a different story, especially on a shorter term basis, there's your tenure again, checking in, we're at 109 and change, and you jump to that two year right now, ZT is the two year, we spiked to a low of 108, we'll call it, we're sitting at 10109, there was some big moves, man, you put this on a weekly, let's put it on a daily, as you can see, now that's a rollover, which skews things a bit in terms of when the futures, the two year futures roll over, we're pushing 109, that's a one way trip, man, all this month, think about it, we were above 102 on the two year, and markets anticipating to put it lightly, where we go, you jump over to crude, back to a short term time frame chart on a 10 minute basis, we got crude trading lower at 89.82, you get the gold contract pulls back a bit, you're getting dollar strength, that's going to put some pressure on commodities, we jump over to the dollar index right now, dollar holding above 105 at 105.09, as we get the S&P's in negative territory, let's see how some of the biggest stocks out there are trading, we jump to Apple shares, we pull back a bit, growth stocks taking a hit, right, Apple already had been lower, you're off by 1.2% right now, you jumped to Microsoft shares, trading lower off 1.1% right now, Google shares off 1.8%, check out these fang stocks, man, they were already lower, the video, remarkable, you got the NASDAQ 100 only off about 410%, when look at it, I just jumped through it, man, all the fang stocks dramatically lower, okay, folks, one more segment, don't go away, we'll come back and then we got the chairman live at 2.30, stay tuned, I'll be right back in three minutes. 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Welcome back folks markets pretty much where we left off coming into the break right now with the S&Ps off a bit you're off by about five points putting things back on a one minute chart to really see that dive right on the number and then we've just been chopping around in a range of about eight S&P points this is probably where we'll come into the Chairman Powell's press conference at 2.30 that's only 12 minutes away we'll air that press conference right here on Tiger TV stay tuned folks that'll be an interesting one to say the least as we know the first move is not always the move that matters in this market on Fed Day but we get some moves across the move across the board right now and keep an eye on yields the 10 year sitting right where we move to initially as well and the two year sitting right there as well the two year probably the biggest move with the projections they have higher for longer and that longer at least a couple of years it seems like in terms of what you're talking about here real GDP this year they're looking for 2.1% real GDP next year 1.5% the jobless rate this year 3.8% is what they're looking for next year inching up to about 4% what's remarkable excuse me yes 4% they're looking for in 2026 folks they were looking for PCE in 2025 to get to 2.2% and in 2026 and God bless anybody that can peg where inflation is two and a half years from right now but they are looking for PCE to be back to 2% in 2026 I mean you start going that far out folks and that reminds me of when you're making pro forma spreadsheets right you get a business you create a business you tell them what you think you're going to do you create a spreadsheet of what that business is going to look like in the future and guess what it's just a big guess of where things are going to be we've seen how wildly wrong everybody can be in this market but nonetheless that is the projection from the Fed it's what matters right now it's what's going to drive some of their policies as we go forward they're not looking for unemployment to go above about 4.1% meanwhile they expect to bring inflation back to 2.2% in 2025 they expect that number to be back to guess what the golden egg 2.0% in 2026 we got a long way to go into the 2026 and that is putting it lightly jumping over to the journal and some of the numbers that they talk about in here just cherry picking some of the activity and we pretty much put it all out there in terms of what the Fed said now we just wait for 10 minutes less than 10 minutes from right now till chairman Powell the median of the 19 officials projection so the Fed fund rate Fed funds rate being lowered to around 5% by the end of 2024 implying two rate cuts next year if they hike again this year I mean think about that think about where we were like six months ago remember what's talking about maybe we cut by the end of this year that was tough to imagine now what are we talking about now we're talking about 12 of the 19 officials are talking about one more hike and then they're not talking about cuts basically until we get towards the end of next year and even then you're talking about two rate cuts after one rate hike quite a difference as I mentioned unemployment rate it was at 3.8% in August they're looking for that to rise to 4.1% next year that's a lower level than they projected in June their projection for annual cornflation that's excluding food and energy edged down to 3.7% for the fourth quarter in June they were looking for 3.9 so what are they doing they're raising their growth prospects they're decreasing their annual corn inflation numbers I can't wait to see what chairman Powell has to say about crude prices how that's going to matter the headline number the influence that's going to have on this market when you talk about inflation excuse me yeah and they talk about yields in here as well let's jump back to Bloomberg see if they have any other action in there yeah here the dots so 2023 5.625% is the case there that's talking about one more hike in the market 2024 that's talking about two cuts but there is the main story folks 5.125% in 2024 versus 4.625 previously now the market knew that might inch up but it inched up by over a hike you know one extra hike is in there 2025 you got almost two hikes still priced in okay so you're talking about higher for longer is the consensus from this statement in terms of where they come out changes in the statement very minor now the economy is described as solid and John Gates is having slowed but still strong if there's a message to the markets other than from the summary of economic projections then it will be up to the Fed chair to deliver it chairman Powell he's coming up and six minutes from right now let's see what else they got year in 2024 implied rate in futures contracts for a federal funds rate 4.63 pretty much exact match of the median previous projection with Fed policymakers yeah markets a little bit lower NASDAQ the weakest of them all very rate sensitive not too surprising right there comparing the 2024 dots with the previous projection you can see a clear hawkish shift the most frequent and that's the mode the most often is the mode projection from June was 4.375 which were six dots now it's between 4.8 and 5.37 that is a big shift man right you're talking about almost a full percentage point shift the lower end it's about half the top end it is a full shift of the 2024 dots he's going to have some questions to answer can't see where he goes can't wait to see excuse me where he goes from there but consensus real quick is you got a little bit weaker market you have yields higher especially on a short-term basis with the two-year sitting at 101 10 the 10 year right now 10906 you got the dollar index spiking higher on strength that 105 04 we were as high as 105 20 so pairing some of those gains a bit s&p's right now at 44 88 as we all anticipate the chairman coming up in about five minutes from right now let's check around to some of the other equities in the market we got check in on instacart man talking about this one yesterday you're off another six percent today don't be touching this thing folks okay do not touch it private equity push this out to the public at ten billion dollars after they were valuing it at 40 billion dollars not surprising the action yesterday not surprising the action today we get Fed acts with their numbers after the bell today up about eight tenths percent ahead of their numbers after the bell and yeah interesting you got the nasdaq 100 only off about 35 points when as I went through it right how about these fang stocks apple down a full percent microsoft will call it down a full percent google off 1.75 percent right now nvidia shares off a full percent right now think what else is happening in the nasdaq if you have all of those stocks off one to 1.75 percent right now netflix shares off a full percent right now tesla shares there you go that's catching a lift up about 1.9 percent will check in on the automakers for it off about four tenths percent will call it gm off about a full percent right now amazon shares off about three tenths percent right now as the s&p makes its way back into positive territory it's going to be an interesting one look at this market man getting it all back is it going to be it's going to be right back to that market forty four ninety eight by the time chairman powell steps in front of the microphone that's coming up in three and a half minutes folks and let's finish it off with yields we check back in on the ten year look at this pair and things a bit we were all the way at one oh nine oh one on the ten year we're at one oh nine oh eight interesting where you go in the ten year the two year we got higher rates in the next couple years folks that is happening and we finish it off with the vixx volatility index deal with thirteen handle all right folks stay tuned we're coming back short break we are coming back with chairman powell live here on tiger TV will air that press conference in it is in its entirety thanks so much folks stay tuned we'll be right back with chairman powell tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger's den hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on the weekends the tiger's den and 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channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors are you ready to take your trading to the next level introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading Tom O'Brien renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed market insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted stay ahead of the game with Tom's real time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to tfnn.com and subscribe to market insights today don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30-day money back guarantee for all new subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game head over to tfnn.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights firsthand tfnn educating investors don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's tfnn.com then hit watch Tiger TV Good afternoon everyone my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people we understand the hardship that high inflation price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve without price stability the economy does not work for anyone in particular without price stability we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all since early last year the FOMC has significantly tightened the stance of monetary policy we've raised our policy interest rate by five and a quarter percentage points and have continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace we've covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt today we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings looking ahead we're in a position to proceed carefully in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate our decisions will be based on our ongoing assessments of the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments reason indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace and so far this year growth in real GDP has come in above expectations recent readings on consumer spending have been particularly robust activity in the housing sector has picked up somewhat though it remains well below levels of a year ago largely reflecting higher mortgage rates higher interest rates also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment in our summary of economic projections or SEP committee participants revised up their assessments of real GDP growth with the median for this year now at 2.1% participants expect growth to cool with the median projection falling to 1.5% next year the labor market remains tight but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance over the past three months payroll job gains average 150,000 jobs per month a strong pace that is nevertheless well below that scene earlier in the year the unemployment rate ticked up in august but remains low at 3.8% the labor force participation rate has moved up since late last year particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54 years nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing and job vacancies have declined so far this year although the jobs to workers gap has narrowed labor demand still exceeds the supply of available workers FOMC participants expect the rebalancing in the labor market to continue easing upward pressures on inflation the median unemployment rate projection in the SEP rises from 3.8% at the end of this year to 4.1% over the next two years inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2% 4% over the 12 months ending in August and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories core PCE prices rose 3.9% inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year and longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households businesses and forecasters as well as measures from financial markets nevertheless the progress the process of getting inflation sustainably down to 2% has a long way to go the median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 3.3% this year falls to 2.5% next year and reaches 2% in 2026 the Fed's monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food housing and transportation we are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% objective as I noted earlier since early last year we have raised our policy rate by five and a quarter percentage points we see the current stance of monetary policy as restrictive putting downward pressure on economic activity hiring and inflation in addition the economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses range for the federal funds rate at five and a quarter to five and a half percent and to continue the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings we are committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our 2% goal over time in our scp fomc participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely sorry the most likely scenario going forward if the economy evolves as projected the median participant projects at the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be five point six percent at the end of this year five point one percent at the end of two thousand twenty four and three point nine percent at the end of two thousand twenty five compared with our June summary of economic projections the median projection is unrevised for the end of this year but has moved up by a half percentage point at the end of the next two years these projection projections of course are not a committee's decision or plan if the economy does not evolve as projected the path of policy will adjust as appropriate to foster our maximum employment and price stability goals we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the balance of risks given how far we have come we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks real interest rates now are well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate but we are mindful of the inherent uncertainties in precisely gauging the stance of policy we're prepared to raise rates further if appropriate and we intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we're confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our objective in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy the lags with which monetary sub-policy affects economic activity and inflation and economic and financial developments we remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal and to keep keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored it's essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run to conclude we understand that our actions affect communities families and businesses across the country everything we do is in service to our public mission we at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals thank you and I look forward to your questions thank you Colby Smith with the Financial Times what makes the committee inclined to think that the Fed funds rate at this level is not yet sufficiently restrictive especially when in officials are forecasting a slightly more benign inflation outlook for this year there's noted uncertainty about policy lags headwinds have emerged from the looming government shutdown the end of federal child care funding resumption of student debt payments that things of that nature so I guess I would characterize the situation a little bit differently so we decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate where it is at five and a quarter to five and a half percent while continuing to reduce our securities holdings and we say we're committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that's sufficiently restrictive to bring down inflation to two percent of our time we said that but the fact that we decided to maintain the policy rate at this meeting doesn't mean that we've decided that we have or have not at this time reached that that stance of monetary policy that we're seeking if you look at the scp as you as you obviously will have done you will see that a majority of participants believe that it is more likely than not that we will that it will be appropriate for us to raise rates one more time in the two remaining meetings this year others believe that we have already reached that so it's it's something where we're by by we're not making a decision by by deciding to about that question by deciding to just maintain the rate and await further data I'm so right now it's still an open question about sufficiently restrictive you're not saying today that we've reached this level we're not saying no no clearly we are just what we decided to do is maintain the policy rate and await further data we want to see convincing evidence really that we have reached the appropriate level and then you know we're we've seen progress and we welcome that but you know we need to see more progress before we'll be willing to to reach that conclusion and just on the 2024 projections what's behind that shallower path for interest rate cuts and the need for real rates to be 50 basis points higher right so I would say it this way for that first of all interest rates real interest rates are positive now they're meaningfully positive and that's a good thing we need a policy to be restrictive so that we can get inflation down to target okay and we need that we're going to need that to remain to be the case for some time so I think you know remember that the of course the scp is not a plan that is negotiated or discussed really as a plan it's accumulation really and what you see are the medians is accumulation of individual forecast from 19 people and then what you're seeing are the median so I wouldn't want to you know bestow upon it the idea that it that's really a plan but what it reflects though is that economic activity has been stronger than we expected stronger than I think everyone expected and so what what you're what you're seeing is this is what people believe as of now will be appropriate to achieve what we're looking to achieve which is progress toward our toward our inflation goal as you see in the scp hi chair Powell Rachel Segal from the Washington Post thanks for taking our questions how would you characterize the debate around another hike or holding steady is discussion around log times fear of too much slowing to little slowing could you walk us through what this disagreement was about at the meeting yeah so the proposal at the meeting was to was to maintain our current policy stance and and I think there was obviously unanimous support for that but this of course is an scp meeting and so people write down what they think and you've got you have some you saw I think seven wrote down no hike at this at this meeting or between now and the end of the year and I think 12 wrote down another single hike in one of the next two meetings that we have between the end of the year so it wasn't like we were arguing over that people just stating their positions and really what that what people are saying is let's see how the data come in you know we want to see you know we want to see we want to see that that this this these good inflation readings that we've been seeing for the last three months we want to see that it's more than just three months right we want to see you know the labor market report that we received the last one that received was a good example of we do what we do want to see it was a combination of you know of across a broad range of indicators continuing rebalancing of the labor market so those are the two things those are our two mandate variables and that's what that's the progress that we want to see but I think people they want to be convinced you know they want to be careful to not to jump to a conclusion really one way or the other but just be convinced that the data and you know support that conclusion and that's why given how far we've come and how quickly we've come we're actually in a position to be able to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlooks and risks and make these decisions meeting by meeting and in your view what would I know nothing has been decided yet but what would one more hike at the end of the year due to the economy or to inflation on and on the other side what would no hike do if you could sort of game that out for us so you know you can make the argument that one hike one way or the other won't matter but for us we're trying we obviously as a group it's a pretty tight cluster of of where we think that that policy stance might be but we're always going to be learning from data you know we've learned all through the course of the last year that actually we needed to go further than we had thought you go back a year and what we thought what we wrote down it's actually gotten higher and higher so we don't really know and until and that's why again we were in a position to proceed carefully at this point a year ago we proceeded pretty quickly to get rates up now now we're fairly close we think to where we need to get it's just a question of reaching the right stance I wouldn't attribute huge importance to one hike in macroeconomic terms nonetheless you know we need we need to get to a place where we're confident that we have a stance that will bring inflation down to 2% over time that's what we need to get to and we've been you know we've been moving toward it as we've gotten closer to it we slowed the pace at which we've moved I think that was appropriate and now that we're getting closer we again we have the ability to proceed carefully Let's go to Steve. I want to return to Colby's question here. What is it saying about the committee's view of the inflation dynamic in the economy that you achieve the same forecast inflation rate for next year but need another half a point of the funds rate on it does it tell you that it'll tell us that the committee believes inflation to be more persistent requires more medicine effectively and I guess a related question is if you're going to project a funds rate above the longer run rate for four years in a row at what point do we start to think hey maybe the longer rate or the neutral rate is actually higher thank you so I guess I would point more to rather than pointing to a sense of inflation having become more persistent I wouldn't think that's not we've seen inflation be more persistent over the course of the past year but I wouldn't say that's something that's appeared in the recent data it's more about stronger economic activity I would say so if I had to attribute one thing again we're we're picking a medians here and trying to attribute one explanation but I think broadly stronger economic activity means means rates we have to do more with rates and that's what that that's what that meaning is is telling you in terms of what the neutral rate can be you know we we we know it by its works we only know it by its works really we can't we can't you know the the models and and that we the economy reacts and again that's another reason why we're where we're moving carefully now because you know there are lags here so that it may it may of course be that that the that the neutral rate has risen you do see people you don't see the median moving but you do see people raising their estimates of the neutral rate and it's certainly plausible that the neutral rate is higher than than the longer run rate remember what we write down in the SCP is the longer run rate it is certainly possible that you know that the that the neutral rate at this moment is higher than that and that that's part of the explanation for why the economy has been more resilient than than expected. Howard Schneider with Reuters thank you um so you said several times that the economy needed a period of below trend growth to get inflation consistently back to 2% you kind of get that in 2024 a little bit 1.5% is just a touch below what's the estimate of potential so the fact that you're getting so much done at so much less cost does that represent a change in how you think inflation works a change in how you think the economy works a change in the mix of supply healing versus demand destruction that's necessary to achieve this yes of course it is a it is a good thing that we we've seen now meaningful rebalancing in the labor market without an increase in unemployment and that's that's because we're seeing that rebalancing in other places in for example job openings and in the jobs worker gap you're also seeing supply side things so that's happening I would say though we still I still think and I think broadly people still think that will have to be some softening in the labor market that can come through some more supply as we've seen as well also remember the natural rate we think is is coming down which is a supply side thing so that the the gap between any given unemployment rate that's lower than that and the natural rate comes down that's a way for supply so that's a way for the labor market to achieve a better balance so all of those things are happening you're right it in the in the median forecast we don't see a big increase in unemployment we do see an increase and but that's that really is just playing forward the trends that we've been seeing that is not guaranteed there there may come a time when unemployment goes up more than that but that's that's really what we've been seeing is progress without higher unemployment for now so just to boil that down for a second you know we've gone from a very narrow path to a to a soft landing to something different would you call the soft landing now a baseline expectation no no I would not do that I would just say what would I say about that I've always thought that the soft landing was was a plausible outcome that there was a path really to to a soft landing I thought that and I've said that since we left it off it's also possible that it the path is narrowed and it's widened apparently ultimately it may this may be decided by factors there they're outside our control at the end of the day but I do think it's I do think it's possible and you know I also think you know this is why we're a position to to move carefully again that we will restore price stability we know that we have to do that then we know the public depends on us doing that and we know that we have to do it so that we can achieve the kind of labor market that we all want to achieve which is a an extended period sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all we know that the fact that we've come this far lets us really proceed carefully is it as I keep saying so I think you know that's that's the end we're trying to achieve I wouldn't want to handicap the likelihood of it though it's not up to me to do that Nick Timmeros of the Wall Street Journal Chair Powell both you and Vice Chair Williams have indicated that sufficiently restrictive will be judged on a real rather than nominal basis implying some scope for nominal rate cuts next year provided further compelling evidence the price pressures will continue to subside is the FOMC focused on targeting a real level of policy restriction and can you explain what would constitute enough evidence that will allow the FOMC to normalize the nominal stance of policy while keeping real policy settings sufficiently restrictive I mean yes we we understand that it's a real rate that will matter and that needs to be sufficiently restrictive and again I would say you know you know sufficiently restrictive only when you see it that you it's not something you can arrive at with confidence in a model or or in various estimates you know and so what are we seeing we're seeing you know through a combination of the you know the unwinding of the pandemic-related demand and supply distortions and monetary policies work in suppressing demand or alleviating very high demand the combination of those two things is actually working you're seeing you know inflation coming down it's principally now in goods also in housing services you begin to see effects of it in non-housing services as well so I think we think that that is working and I think what you know as we've said we want to reach that we want to reach something that we're confident it gets us to that level and I think confidence comes from seeing you know enough data that you feel like yes okay this feels like it we can we can for now decide that this is the right level and just agree to stay here we're not permanently deciding not to go higher but but we would it let's say we get to that level and then the question is how long do you stay at that level and that's a whole nother set of questions for now the question is trying to find that level where we think we can stay there and we haven't we haven't gotten to a point of confidence about that yet that's that's what we're that's the state of this year and even then it seems possible the core pce inflation could come in even lower than the median at three point seven percent would you see a case to raise rates still if it turned out that you were going to achieve the same real rate this year because the decline in inflation proceeds somewhat better than you than you currently anticipate the decision that we make at you know at each meeting and certainly at the last two meetings this year it's going to depend on the totality of all the data so the inflation data the labor market data the growth data that the the balance of risks and the other events that are happening out there will make we take all of that into account so I can't really answer a hypothetical about one piece of that it'll be trying to reach a judgment over whether we should move forward with another rate hike overall and whether that would increase our confidence that that yes it this is an appropriate movement will help help us be more confident that we've got into the level that we need to get to thanks chair Powell following up on next question actually John Williams the New York Fed president obviously has said things to the effect of next year as we see inflation kind of again to next point as we see inflation coming down we're going to need to reduce interest rates to make sure that we're not squeezing the economy harder and harder with overtime and I wonder if that's basically the logic that you apply you know is that how you think about it and then I also wonder in the last press conference you said something to the effect of you know it's a full year out those discussions and people interpreted that to mean that you didn't see a possibility of a rate cut in the first half of next year and I wonder if that was what you meant by that or whether you know how you're thinking about that timing no when so when I answer these questions about hypotheticals about about cutting I'm never intending to send a signal about timing I'm just answering them as as the question is expressed so so please I wouldn't want to be taken away sorry the first question was that helm yeah so we're as we go into next year that's the question we'll be asking is you know taking into account lags and everything else we know about the economy and everything we know about monetary policy the time will come at some point and I'm not saying when that it's that it's appropriate to cut part of that may be that real rates are rising because inflation is coming down part of it just may be that it'll be all the factors that we see in the economy and you know that time will certainly come at some point and you what you see is us writing down you know a year ahead estimates of what that might be and you know this does you know there's so much uncertainty around that when we in the moment will do what we think makes sense no one will look back at this and say hey we made a plan it's not like that at all it's it this is it these are estimates made a year in advance they're highly uncertain and that's how it is thanks so much chair Powell Neil Irwin with Axios wonder how do you think about the of a macroeconomic effect you know energy prices being higher that's that is a significant thing we energy prices being up can affect spending it can affect over time a sustained period of higher of higher energy prices can affect consumer expectations about inflation we tend to look through short-term volatility and look at look at core inflation but so the question is how long or higher prices sustained we have to we have to take those macroeconomic effects into account as well those are those are some of them I'm not sure if I hit them all but I mean ultimately you know you're coming into this with an economy that appears to have significant momentum and that's that's what we start with and we but we do have this collection of risks I mentioned Craig Torres from Bloomberg News I was a little surprised chair Powell to hear you say that a soft landing is not a primary objective this economy seeing added supply in a way that could create long-term inflation stability we have prime age labor force participation moving up where people can add skills workers want to work we have a boom in manufacturing construction we've had a decent spade of home building and since inflation's coming down with strong GDP growth we may have higher productivity all are which good for the feds longer-run target of low inflation and if we lose that in a recession aren't we opting for the awful hysteresis that we had in 2010 so are you taking this into account as you pursue policy thank you to begin a soft landing is a primary objective and I did not say otherwise I mean that's that's what we've been trying to achieve for all this time the real point though is the worst thing we can do is to fail to restore price stability because the record is clear on that if you you don't restore price stability inflation comes back and you go through what you can have a long period where the economy is just very uncertain and it will affect growth it'll affect all kinds of things it can be a miserable period to have inflation come constantly coming back and the Fed coming in and having to tighten again and again so the best thing we can do for everyone we believe is to restore price stability I think now today we actually you know we have the ability to be careful at this point and move carefully and that's what we're planning to do so we fully appreciate that you know the benefits of being able to continue what we see already which is rebalancing in the labor market and inflation coming down without seeing you know an important large increase in unemployment which has been typical of other tightening cycles so hi thank you Chris Rugee-Brady says he did press when you look at the disinformation that economic forecasting is is very difficult and these are highly uncertain forecasts but these are these are our forecasts there you know they're there we have a very high quality people working on these forecasts and I think they stand up well against other forecasters but just the nature of the businesses the economy is very difficult to forecast given the forecast that you have what justified not moving today and what could justify moving in the future if you think well I think we have come very far very fast in the rate increases that we've made and I think it was important at the beginning that we move quickly and we did and and I think as we get closer to the rate that we think the stance of monetary policy that we think is appropriate to bring inflation down to 2% over time you know the risks become more two-sided and the risk of over tightening and the risk of of under tightening that becomes more equal and I think the natural common sense thing to do is as you approach that you move a little more slowly as you get closer to it and that that's what we're doing so we're we're taking advantage of the fact that we have moved quickly to move a little more carefully now as we as we as we sort of find our way to to the right level of restriction that we need to get inflation back down to 2% thank you chair pal Jennifer Schoenberger with Yahoo Finance with your focus on your over your PCE isn't it true that base effects are huge and that by the time you meet in November that it's more likely that you'll have a low PCE number that would make you feel more comfortable and secondly how would the lack of key indicators like CPI the jobs report impact your approach in upcoming meetings if we were to have a government shutdown you I missed the first question what was the miss what factors the base factors base factors ah okay so on that what you know we're looking at just month right you can look at just monthly readings and see what the increase was from the prior month so you're right when you go back three six and twelve months you could base factors but we can we can we can adjust for that in terms of not getting data you know again we don't we don't comment on government shutdowns it it's possible if there is a government shutdown and it lasts through the the next meeting then it's possible we wouldn't we wouldn't be getting some of the data that we would ordinarily get and we you know we would just have to deal with that and I don't know it's hard for me to say in advance how that would affect that meeting it would depend on all kinds of factors that I don't know about now but it's certainly a reality that that that's a possibility as those kind of fall out of the equation for the next couple of readings by November would you feel more comfortable at that point you know yes I mean if you're looking if we can tell how much inflation has gone up in a given month right and you know that's what we're looking at and month by month what's the reading and you know I think I think what we're really looking at is there's a tendency to look at you know shorter and shorter maturities but they're incredibly volatile and they can be misleading that's why we look at 12 month but I think in this situation where it looks like we've had a bit of a turn in inflation starting in June we're also looking at six months and even three months but really six months inflation so you're looking at it over that period and over longer periods that that's the right way to go and we don't we don't need to be in a hurry in getting to a conclusion about what to do we can let the data evolve so thanks for the question chair Powell Edward Lawrence with Fox Business so I want to focus back in on oil prices we're seeing oil prices as you mentioned move up and that's pushing the price of gas so how does that factor into your decision to raise rates or not because the last two inflation reports PCE and CPI we've seen the overall inflation is actually risen right so you know energy prices are very important for the consumer this this can affect consumer spending it certainly can affect consumer sentiment I mean gas prices are one of the big things that affects consumer sentiment it really comes down to how persistent how sustained these energy prices are we the reason why we look at core inflation which excludes food and energy is that energy goes up and down like that and it doesn't energy energy prices mostly mostly don't contain much of a signal about how tight the economy is and hence don't tell you much about where inflation is really going however we're well aware though that that you know if an energy price is increase and stay high that will have an effect on spending and and it may have an effect on on consumer expectations of inflation things like that that's just things we have to monitor so oh yeah on the consumer that they're putting more and more of this on their credit card the consumer seeing you know record credit spending how long do you think the consumer can manage that debt at higher interest rates now and are you concerned about it a debt bubble related to that so to finish my prior thought I was saying that's why we we tend to look through energy moves that we that we can see as short-term volatility you know we're turning the consumer credit you know of course we watch that carefully consumer distress measures of distress among consumers were at historic lows quite recently you know after during and after the pandemic they're now moving back up to normal we're watching that carefully but at this point these these readings are not they're not at troublingly high levels they're just kind of moving back up to what was the typical in the pre-pandemic era hey Jean young with M&I market news yields along the Treasury curve have risen to their highest in years what is the Fed's view about what's been driving that increase in recent weeks and how much of it can be attributed to macro explanations and how much to technical factors so you're right you know rates have moved up significantly I think it's always hard to say precisely but it's most most people do a common decomposition of the increase and they'll they'll the view will be it's not it's not mostly about inflation expectations it's mostly about other things you know either term premium or real yields and it's hard to be precise about this of course everyone's got models that will give you a very precise answer but they give you different answers so but essentially they're moving up because it's not because of inflation it's because probably it'll probably be have something to do with stronger growth I would say more more supply of treasuries that you know the common explanations that you hear in the markets kind of makes sense Kyle Campbell American banker thank you for taking the questions just two on housing you said slower shelter cost growth is in the pipeline and will reflect in inflation readings as new leases are signed but there's also some questions out there about the way housing costs are measured particularly the use of rental equivalents which are estimates from homeowners about what their homes would rent for if they were in the rental market so my question is how much of the effort to tame inflation both as it's measured and felt by the broader public hinges on housing supply and then as far as a constrained housing supply being sort of exacerbated by this sort of lock-in effect of mortgages being higher now than they were at their recent historic lows how is that going to impact future thinking about taking interest rates to that lower bound in the future so on the supply point of course supply is very important over time in in setting house prices and and for that matter rents and so and supply is kind of structurally constrained but in terms of where inflation is going in the near term though as you obviously know a lot of it is is leases that are running off and then being re-signed or released at a level that's that's not as not it won't be that much higher it would have a year ago would have been much higher than it was a year before now it may be below or at the same level so as those leases are rolling over we're seeing what we expect which is measured housing services inflation coming down your second question was the lock-ins how much is that affecting things really affect your decisions to potentially bring rates down to their lower bound in the future sort of creating that that sort of bubble of buying and then a lock in that sort of stagnates the housing market I think we look at the I would look at the lock in this the idea being that people are in very low mortgage very low rate mortgages and if they even if they want to move now they would be hard because they knew mortgage would be so expensive play a role in in in our future decisions in a in a future tight in a future loosening cycle about whether we would cut rates no I don't think it would I mean I don't think that's I think we'd be looking at what you know fundamentally what what rates does the economy need and you know in an emergency like the pandemic or during the global financial crisis you you know they the you have to cut rates to the point that you have to do what you can to support the economy so I wouldn't I wouldn't think that that would be a reason for us not to do that it's not something we're thinking about it all right now but down the road I wouldn't think so Hi Nancy Marshall Genser with Market Place. Chair Powell you've mentioned several things that would possibly weigh on consumer confidence maybe cut back consumer spending possible government shutdown high gas prices at this point with the Fed welcome a decrease in consumer spending would that help you get inflation closer to your two percent target I wouldn't say it that way we're not looking for a decrease in consumer spending it's a good thing that the economy is strong it's a good thing that the economy has been able to hold up under the tightening that we've done it's a good thing that the labor market strong the only concern and it just it just means this if the economy if the economy comes in stronger than expected that just means we'll have to do more in terms of monetary policy to get back to two percent because we will get back to two percent is answer your question yeah and I guess on the other hand would you worry that that could contribute to an economic slowdown or even a recession well that's always a concern I mean concern number one is is restoring price stability we because in the long run that's that's something we have to do so that we can have the kind of economy we really want which is one with sustained period of tight labor market conditions that benefit all as I've said a couple times so that that said of course you know we could we also now given how far we've come with our rate hikes and how quickly we've come here we do have the ability to be careful as we move forward because of that consideration thank you chair Powell Simon Rubinovich with the Economist one of the factors in the economic resilience to date appears to be a lesser degree of rate sensitivity than in the past obviously we've talked about households with long fixed rate mortgages also companies that refinanced before last year what is your thinking about the efficacy of rates and how that's changed and then related to that how do you think about the distributional consequences in the sense that if you're a relatively wealthy household with a long fixed rate mortgage the past year has not been all that tough with rates going up whereas if you're relying on your credit card for supporting your consumption in fact times are getting a lot tougher a lot more quickly thanks so what I guess it's fair it's fair to say that the economy has been stronger than many expected given given what's been happening with with interest rates why is that many candidate explanations possibly a number of make sense one one is just that household balance sheets and business balance sheets have been stronger than we had understood and so that that's spending has held up in that kind of thing we're not sure about that the savings rate for consumers has come down a lot the questions whether that sustainable that could be could just mean that that the date of effect is is later it could also be that for other reasons the neutral rate of interest is is higher for for various reasons we don't know that it could also just be that policy hasn't been restrictive enough for long enough and it's there many candidate explanations we have to in all this uncertainty make policy and I you know I feel like what we have right now is what's still a very strong labor market but that's coming back into balance we were making progress on inflation grow by many forecasts many many many forecast call for for growth to moderate over the course of the next year so that's where we are and you know we have to we have to deal with what comes on your second question was which was sorry your second was was distributional but can you can you be a little clearer about that yeah my point there was that if you're somebody who has a long fixed rate mortgage you've been able to endure the higher rates relatively easily if you're somebody who's living month to month off of your credit card current financing rates are punitive yes and so the point I would make there is that we're trying to get inflation back down the people who are most hurt by inflation are the people who are on a fixed income if you're a person who spends all of your income you don't really have any meaningful savings you spend all your income on the basics of life clothing food transportation heating the basics and prices go up by five six seven percent you you're in trouble right away whereas even even middle-class people have some savings and some ability to absorb that so it is for those people as much as for anybody that we need to restore price stability and and we we want to do it as quickly as possible obviously we would like to do that we'd like the current trend to continue which is that we're making progress without seeing the kind of increase in unemployment that we see in past things but you're right though when we raise rates people who are you know who are living on credit cards and borrowing are gonna feel that more they are and of course people with with lots of savings options to your portfolio can be a major game changer 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