 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 16th of May with me, Patrick Munnerley. On the macro front, China's central bank will be the only major one to weigh in with the decision this week. We're most likely still on the down draft of the global earnings season. And while there are some important macroeconomic readings on growth and inflation, none are likely to have the star power of, say, US jobs, your US and Eurozone inflation. That may place the emphasis this week upon off-calendar risk around further developments in China, especially in terms of tracking COVID-zero policies and the war in Ukraine and how Russia may react to expected traction towards seeing NATO membership by Finland and Sweden. Still, from a market standpoint, stock market corrections will continue to drive debate over whether they merit changing the macroeconomic and policy rate outlook. Alternatively, should one view the movements as offering more attractive entry points, it's still greater caution warranted. These are both perspectives that possibly depend upon one's investment horizon. This contest of narratives will persist and be subject to one's favourite sloganeering, whether it's sell in May and go away, but with probably still less overall willingness to go away. The later screaming contest on financial news channels about deflation, depression and stagnation, or is it Warren Buffett's sage advice to be fearful when everyone else is greedy and greedy when everyone else is fearful? We will see. Moving to the data calendar, in the US on Monday we get Fed-Empire State Index. Last time out, 24.6, looking for a 15-print New York manufacturing sector, has been well supported by a pretty firm order pipeline and then heading into Tuesday we get April Retail Sales. Last time out, 0.5%, looking for a 1% print here, inflation, discretionary incomes and spending. We also get April Industrial Production, 0.9% last time looking for 0.4%, volatility continues to linger as firms navigate supply chain issues. We also get March Business Inventories, last time out 1.5%, looking for a 1.9% print business rebuilding inventory at a pretty strong pace. We also get NAHB Housing Market Index, last time 77, looking for a 75-print, really around affordability concerns now as rising input costs and interest rates are likely to weigh. Also noteworthy on Tuesday, we're going to hear from Fed Chair Powell in an interview. We also hear from Bullard, Harker and Mester. Heading into Wednesday, we get April Housing Starts in the US, 0.3% last time, looking for a negative 1.3% strength of the labour market and limited supply to support residential construction in the medium term. Heading into Thursday, we see initial jobless claims, last stay up to $203,000 and this is just to remain at a very low level. We also get May Philly Fed Index, last time 17.6%, looking for 16.1% business conditions remain healthy. We also get April Existing Home Sales, last time negative 2.7%, looking for a 1.8% limited supply and calling demand headwinds are likely to impact sales. That rounds out the calendar for the US next week. So moving to the charts, technically speaking, dollar index remains in the uptrend here. I'm looking for potential offers to develop into a 105 test, but even then I'm watching three-way pullbacks into the trend channel support here and anything into that 103.40 area. I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, looking for a test at this 108 level, which is the 127 extension from the 2021 decline and also monthly projected range resistance. Moving to the Eurozone, Monday we get March trade balance, negative 9.4 billion last time, deficit to remain wide on elevated energy prices. Then moving into Tuesday, we get Q1 GDP. Last time at 0.2%, looking for a 0.2% print here as it's the second estimate and we will rapidly confirm that the economies are slowing in the Eurozone. Heading into Wednesday, we get April CPI, last time 0.6%, again looking for a 0.6% print this time out. Elevated energy prices remain the key driver there behind European inflation. Friday rounds out the week in terms of Eurozone data with May consumer confidence. Last time, negative 22, looking at gain, negative 22, inflation, pressuring real spending capacity and sentiment in the Eurozone. From a technical perspective, the Eurodollar broke through the 104 handle and we got down as low as 103.30s this week. I'm looking for any pullbacks into the trend channel resistance 105.70s or even below there into that 105.10 area. Anywhere in that zone, I'm watching the bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side and ultimately looking for a grind down now to head towards parity in the Euro. At this stage, we need to close through the trend channel resistance back through 106 really to suggest that the downside is done for now and we could see more meaningful correction play out. Heading to the UK, Monday, May right move house prices last time 1.6%. Demand is likely softening as rate hikes begin to take full effect in the UK. And then on Tuesday, we get March ILO, employment rates, 3.8% print looking for zones last time. Unemployment now remains at pre-COVID levels in the UK. Then on Wednesday, we get April CPI 1.1% last time and again it's those energy prices and the cost of living crisis is likely to be a pressure there. And on Friday, we round out the week in the UK with May GFK Consumer Sentiment, negative 38 last time at its lowest level since the series began back in 1980. Consumer confidence really under the gun in the UK. And obviously we get April retail sales, negative 1.4% cost of living really is starting to pressure and weigh on spending in the UK. So from a technical perspective looking at selling dollar, we are looking for a test of 1.20 as the primary downside objective here. So any pullbacks into the 1.2390s, 1.24, I've been watching for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side looking for that 1.20 test. When we get down to that 1.20, we'll be watching if we get some bullish divergence developing for a more meaningful corrective move to take this back up into the 1.25 zone. At this stage, any close below the monthly projected range for here at 1.18 will be a very bearish development and opening up to much lower levels. Moving to Japan, the calendar starts out there on Wednesday, when we get Q1 GDP, last time out 1.1% we're actually looking for a negative 0.5% print. Consumption did take a big hit from Omnicron in the first quarter. We also get March industrial production, 0.3% supply issues are an ongoing headwind in Japan. Then heading into Thursday, we get March machinery orders last time, negative 9.8%. Looking for a positive 3.9% print here. The investment outlook does remain clouded though by the supply chain issues. We round out the week in Japan on Friday, April's CPI sent here every year. Looking for a 2.5% print. Ex-food and energy inflation is still negative in Japan. From a technical perspective, John Yen pulled back into the support zone at the 1.2770s, the bids have emerged. I'm looking for any breakthrough 1.30 a game to engage on the long side initially looking for a move up to 1.3350s. Pullback sent to find support at this prior highs 1.3140s. There again, I've been looking to add to long positions, ultimately targeting a test of 1.35 on the upside. At this stage, we'd really take a close back through the trend channel 1.27 here to suggest a deeper pullback likely to test the 1.25, 1.2460s before once again trying another extension to the upside. Rounding out the week down under in Australia, RBA minutes on Tuesday. More color to the RBA board's views are likely there and we'll see what we're up there talking back in terms of the future rate path in Australia. On Wednesday, Q1 wage price index, last time 0.7% looking for a 0.8% print here. A tighter labor market continues to push on wages in 2022. Then on Thursday we get April employment change. Last time out 17.9 thousands looking for a 30,000 print here. Payroll suggests weather and holiday dampened employment and also dampened participation. So falling unemployment, we're looking for a 3.9% employment rate print there and that rounds out the week in Australia. So from a technical perspective, got that test of our 6840s, potential reversal here developing, but I'm looking at any three-way corrected moves essentially into the trend channel back in the 70s, 60 area. Bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side, targeting the equality objective down to 6620s. Got the monthly projected range of support just above there at 6660s. We'll be watching there for bullish reversal patterns to play countertrend loans if that setup develops. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing this 16th of May. As always, trade us, plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.