 There's a reason why Xtrades is currently the fastest growing application on the market for sharing financial ideas. With over $2.5 million paid in the last two years to contributors, users are flocking to see what trades the top traders on the leaderboard are sharing in real time. If you're looking to grow your reputation as a trader on the internet or discuss your trading ideas with other reputable investors, click the link below and get connected with a trading mentor today completely free of charge. Alright, what's up everybody? This is Alex from Xtrades and welcome back to another weekly trade ideas list and also an index overview. If you're new to these, we go over some economic data, go over the seasonality real quick and then we also go over some charts for individual tickers and also indexes using technical analysis. So for this week, we do have some data, some actually pretty important data. Monday not so much factory orders, always a hit or miss. I really wouldn't pay too much attention to this one. And then Tuesday most importantly is going to be the U.S. Services PMI and the ISM Services and also the Joltz job openings. So this is going to be a big mover has been very recently, especially the Joltz job openings. So pay attention to those especially. And then Wednesday, ADP employment hasn't really been moving us. U.S. Productivity doesn't really move us. And then U.S. Trade Deficit doesn't really either. So Wednesday is probably going to be relatively quiet. Thursday, usual initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories and consumer credit probably not going to move us too much. And then Friday most importantly, this is the biggest data set of the week. We have the consumer sentiment at 10. And before that at 8.30 in the morning, we have the non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, U.S. hourly wages, and also hourly wages year over year. This is going to be extremely important. So pay attention to these especially. We want to see the labor market cooling down and onto the seasonality. This is actually the new December Almanac chart for the last 21 years worth of data. This is from Almanac Traders Twitter, go check him out. He also creates the Almanac books. By the way, they're like little calendars that give you probabilities on the market. It gives you data because you look cool little quotes, all types of stuff. So go check it out. It's called the stock Almanac and they drop one every single year. But you can see the first half of December looking pretty choppy pretty much all the way up into the midpoint of the month where you can see after 12, 15 options expiration. That's kind of when we start to see that bid up in the market on everything. And these are multiple indexes. You can kind of see everything going in sync towards the midpoint of the month here. So it looks like it could be relatively quiet. We're going into the fourth tomorrow. Looks like there's a little uptick, nothing crazy. Then you can see small caps, the Russell 2000 kind of does get a little pullback right here and pre-election years, according to these red dots. And also maybe a little pullback for everything right here towards the 12th to the 14th. But no big pullback or anything by any means. You don't see any major drawdown here. Markets do look a little bit overextended. So I could see us pulling back maybe a little bit more than what this is showing. More than the average, just due to how extended we are. And really it would only be technical. It wouldn't be a big pullback by any means I don't think at the moment. But this kind of just tells me to be cautious. Maybe they'll start looking for too crazy a momentum until after the 18th year. Seasonality only does so much. This is kind of just giving you a little outlook and it's just another piece of info you can add to your arsenal. So that's for the seasonality, looking relatively choppy all the way up into the midpoint of the month. Moving on to the setups. We'll try to get over these pretty quickly. Make them as clear and concise as possible. As well as give a nice little outlook on where I think these are going. So we got MOS here. This is Mosaic. This is actually a really good play during 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. As you can see, this thing went crazy and slightly due to supply chains and other factors. Basically every single commodity went up in the world during this. But now it's kind of starting to get towards the bottoms here. As you can see, I mean, it's been having a pretty rough year for the most part minus this little run from June up into August. It's been kind of in a downtrend. Now finally starting to poke out here. We really need to see it get over 37.42. You can see that's this resistance right here. So resistance right here, but we are poking out of the downtrend line. So looking pretty bullish one, two, three, four, almost five tests here just on this downtrend line now starting to close outside of it. So it is confirmed to break out here. We do want to see it get over that 37.42, of course, in order to go higher. So need to get over that 37.42, make a base, fill up all this free space, maybe get back up to 40 flat. That will be a psychological level. So definitely watch that. If it can break out, that'll probably be the main price target, 40 flat, something around it. Don't always have to go to the exact penny because you can get screwed by doing that. Just make sure, you know, if it keeps going up, you just keep taking profits along the way. You're not being too picky about your price targets, not getting greedy, etc. And then obviously 40 is a pretty good shot. I mean, it's measured out. That would be a almost 7% move to get up to 40 from this area. So that's why you want to be taking profit on the way up and realize that 7% is a pretty big shot up to 40. So it could take some time. I don't think it's just going to get up there in a week. And then you can see the movie gaverages looking pretty good. You got the 9, 21, 50 all in the same spot here acting as support. Another price target you could do as well, this 200 EMA is going to be right here. That's always a good price target. So it's going to be like 39 area. It's going to change every single day, obviously, after each one day closed. So just watch the 200 EMA have that be your first price target, maybe as well as make sure you're waiting for it to get over that 37, 42, or if you don't want to wait for it to get over 37, 42, buy time on your contracts. That way, if it does pull up into 37, 42 and sees resistance, you do have some time on your contract to deal with any drawdown risk, or it's not as bad for long-term contracts. So that's for MOS, looking at calls, key break over this resistance, main price target, 200 EMA and also 40 flat risk off. Obviously, if it goes back within the downtrend line, simple as that. And for our next ticker here, we have BMY. This is actually a pretty clear bullish falling wedge. You got to test one, test two. Looks like it didn't really reject the test three that much. But either way, it's still breaking out of this little wedge. Looks pretty nice. You have two short term peaks. You got one at 51, 74 and another peak at 53, 55. So definitely want to watch those areas. It probably try to get up to this point, maybe find short term resistance there. And then there's also that other point just above it at 53, 55. You want to watch that area as well. If it can stay broken out like this, as well as we do have the movie gaver just kind of in the way. You get the nine, you get the 21, still trending below all of them. You want to see price closing over the 21, which is the second one right here. If it closes over that 21, it can get up to 51, 74. If it can get over 51, 74 and get up to this 50 EMA, this green line, as well as the 53, 55 area. You also have a positive KDJ to the upside. So that's a good sign. Osculators are curling up. So it looks pretty good for a potential bounce. Somebody actually asked a question about this one. So I added to my radar because I thought it looked pretty good. I think there is a bullish RSI divergence on it as well. So I don't really use the RSI too much. But if you go check it out, it's probably making lower lows on price as well as making higher lows on the RSI, which is a bullish divergence. So go check it out. This is BNY looking at calls. Want to see that close over the 21. Watch this 51, 74 as resistance, as well as 53, 55 and the 50 EMA as well. So it'll probably give you about six percent to the upside if it can get up there. Obviously, it could take time just because we do these every week. Doesn't mean your price target is going to get hit in one week. So I mean, we just had a play on WFC that didn't even play out the week after we were looking at it. It actually did it the week afterward and it just ran heavy. Wells Fargo did amazing the past couple of weeks. So it just took a week. So even though we're reviewing this this week, it could chop out, stall out, maybe pull back and back test and then run the week after. So just keep it on your radar by time on your contracts. If you have to deal with any drawdown risk, give it time to fart around at lows is what you want to do. More time on your contracts, the better for options. So BNY looking at calls, be patient, make sure it stays broken out. Obviously, if it starts going back within line, probably think about an invalidation level, main invalidation level, probably under forty eight twenty five starts breaking under those lows or this trend line support, it's probably going to be no good anymore. It'll probably keep trying to trend lower. So just watch that level as well as your short term resistance points. If it gets over this fifty three fifty five, that's a pretty good shot higher. I mean, this is like a big sale imbalance area. There's a little gap right here. So if it can get over that big upside potential and next we're looking at BABA so last week or I'm sorry, maybe it was a couple of weeks ago. We did have this on the list because of this quadruple seven support level from over here and you can see it bounced pretty good for a couple of days. He probably could have gotten a nice two day swing trade on this or some type of day trade just off these little bars right here. So there's a nice little counter trend reversal. It didn't get up to our eighty seventy seven gap, though, which I was looking for the gap resistance as a price target. But, you know, in this market, you just got to be quick. I mean, if it gives you a quick bounce like this, just take the profit, honestly and just make sure you're paying attention to the closes. It starts not looking as bullish on the close. Like if it's not looking like these bars or fish is not looking that great, it could be good to just go ahead and take your profit or cut whatever you got to do because it could be trying to make a lower high to go lower, especially if it's trending under the movie averages like this. You can see it's just been under the nine and the twenty one. So if you're going to go counter trend and buy down here, you want to be selling at the movie averages as well as looking for a close over these. You want to start seeing price closing over these for a classic uptrend signal. And Bob, I just hasn't been able to do that yet. But now it's at an even lower spot. Look how far price is away from the nine EMA and also the twenty one. This is a very far extension below the movie averages. So you want to see it pop back up here, maybe come back up for a mere regression. That'd be nice. And you just sell again at the, you know, around the nine and twenty one EMA area. It looks like there's a seventy four sixty eight support here. I have marked this little red zone, but I don't know where this one came from. Let me see if I could zoom out. We could find it. OK, yeah, it's this base right here. This November twenty twenty two. And also this little base low right here is probably what we are watching. You might want to see Bob, I get back above that. If we go over to it, this is the base right here. You got a short term bottom, short term bottom to gap up. So this is that seventy seventy four sixty eight. So we want to see it get above that. And that will probably have some pretty positive momentum. It looks like this Friday bar. It's pretty nice. It looks like it's trying to signal a potential bounce or some type of reversal. But obviously it probably need to get over that seventy four sixty eight as well as get over probably this little candle high right here. I can start filling up that free space. And then overall, I mean, you probably want to watch the lows of these little candles from when we were watching it a couple of weeks ago. It's going to be at seventy six fifty six overall. I mean, that's probably the max high I could see for right now. If you can get over the seventy six fifty six, there's that triple or I'm sorry, the quadruple seven level above that. So those are the two levels of upside I would be looking for. Risk off just because I mean, probably keep it conservative. Keep it under seventy two twelve. If it starts busting under this weak low of this specific daily bar, maybe time to, you know, just look at something else or maybe wait for it to get back over again if it starts breaking under this. So that's for Baba looking at calls. Just be cautious under a pretty good downtrend as well as under some just some short term supports as well. Want to see it get up back over that seventy four sixty eight. And last but not least for our individual tickers, this is going to be a short or a put trade. This is Boeing. This is a big rally based drop zone. So last week, we were looking at a rally based drop zone on Roku as well. But it was able to blast through that. Obviously, Roku was more consolidated. It kind of had like a little flag and we needed a little bit more confirmation from it before trying to go short. And it didn't even give us a chance to do that because on Monday, it instantly broke out. I gapped up. I had a big morning in the pre market as well. So it's kind of off limits for me to begin the week. So I didn't take any shorts on Roku or shop last week. And I did mention you probably want to wait for like some type of one day bar signal to show you that it's reacting to supply or it's going to reject. And it just didn't do that. And it broke over the invalidation levels, had a really good week for the bulls. So you can look for shorts in this market, but you want the right signals and we didn't have the right signals last week. So I didn't take any of them. But it's always good to keep it on your radar just in case, especially when the market is getting this overextended. You got the indexes up near resistance points. Fifty two week highs, everything you could think of. And when we started getting up here, had just started getting cheaper and put start getting cheaper. So the cost for insurance is cheaper and it's a pretty good deal. That's why it's good to maybe have a one or two shorts on your radar just in case the indexes do pull back because then the broad market would probably start trying to pull back as well. Boeing this week, I want to see a pull up into supply. That's going to be at two thirty seven fifty. So if I can get up to two thirty seven fifty and find a rejection point off that, I'd probably try to come back down to this two thirty level. And another thing for Boeing here, you can see it's very overextended over its nine and twenty one EMAs. It's just been in a crazy uptrend. And sometimes when price gets a little bit overextended over these nine and twenty ones, it needs a little more regression to come back down. Let price catch back up to the moving averages and kind of just stall out a little bit. So I'm not necessarily saying Boeing is just going to totally collapse at this level. It could probably just be a short term pullback if it can get up to this two thirty seven fifty supply. It's also a rally based drop zone. So just keep it on your radar if it can get up there. And as well as the maybe the Dow Jones industrial average, if that index starts pulling back and maybe see a rotation out of it for some reason or really if you see any broad market weakness. I mean, this could pull back even without hitting supply. So just make sure you're paying attention to those indicators as well. But I do like this if it can get up to this zone. And then you start looking for resistance for a short term pullback. Nothing crazy. I want to see it get back down to two thirty maybe maybe even the one day nine EMA and at that point I couldn't project it any lower because I'd have to see it break the one day nine EMA. So the one day nine and also two thirty are probably just the lowest I'm looking for right now, assuming it can get a pullback here. But just make sure you're waiting for it to get up here first. Wait for it to get up into supply or wait for some type of weakness in the indexes. It starts taking out the low of Friday. So it starts taking out two thirty one thirty eight as well as two thirty. That's a pretty good signal to reverse down head into the nine EMA. So either wait for it to get up to the supply and start looking for resistance up there or wait for it to flush under the two thirty or the two thirty one area, which is Friday's low. And those are the two easiest signals to look for some type of reversal and as well as not get stuck in the middle here. So this for Boeing looking at puts, like I said, just be patient. Either wait for it to get up into supply, a few more points to the upside or wait for it to start breaking under Friday's low as well as this two thirty maybe. All right. Not to the indexes for spy last week. We were focused on this four fifty three sixty seven. Obviously, it had broken out. So this was Friday's close on the twenty fourth. So we were briefly over it. We closed over it, relatively bullish. And I just mentioned you probably want to watch four fifty three sixty seven as a back test level and you wouldn't want to get too bearish until it started breaking under that. And the max upside I could see was the four fifty nine forty four, which is obviously this peak right here. And we were able to hold the four fifty three sixty seven back test very cleanly. Obviously, it just comes from right here. It's as simple as that. You got a wick off right here, a nice wick off right here from Thursday. And we pushed all the way up on Friday to four fifty nine forty four. So it got the max price target to the upside and wasn't able to break under that four fifty three sixty seven focus level to the downside for bears. So it was just a strong back test level as well as QQQ did the same thing on three eighty eight. But now we're actually a little bit over extended, I guess, for the most part. We weren't able to close over that four fifty nine forty four on Friday. So we will need to see some type of close over that. And then there's one more level above that, just a few more points. It's the March twenty twenty two peak and so that four sixty two seven. And that's coming all the way from over here. This is where we peaked out and just totally shit the bed in twenty twenty two. So that's going to be a huge level to clear. It's also a little supply zone. So four sixty two is obviously the max high I could see this week. If it can get over that four fifty nine forty four, which it kind of had a little bit of trouble on Friday. You can see it rejected off initially and then it just kind of came back up. So it's just a small stall out, nothing crazy. I definitely wouldn't just ape into puts here just because you saw this little one point rejection of four fifty nine forty four need to see way more evidence. You got a really nice bullish bar here. So got to be really careful. But this four fifty nine forty four could turn into something if it starts stalling out too much and it keeps failing to break over that for a couple of days. Obviously, it could stall out here. Try to pull back in the four fifty three sixty seven and the max low. If it does that, just the same four fifty three sixty seven. So that's your trading range. The four fifty three sixty seven back tests that we focused on last week, as well as the four fifty nine forty four max high. Also this previous fifty two week high that we were focused on last week as well. So with a max upside of four sixty two oh seven. So your resistance is here. Four fifty nine's max peak at four sixty two. If it breaks out of that with a max low of four fifty three sixty seven. If it rejects. So I got to look at all scenarios, bulls and bears because it's the market. Anything could happen. That's why you wait for your confirmations. That's either going to be a break over this resistance or some type of rejection signal on the one day or maybe a good one hour bearish and golfing bar off the resistance, something showing you evidence that we're going back down to four fifty three sixty seven before you just go insane into puts. So that's the levels, guys. Four fifty three sixty seven max low if it sees downside and four sixty two oh seven for upside. I just can't see higher than that four sixty two for now. You know, if it does get over that. You could probably start looking for more, obviously. You need to zoom out for that. There's a all time high of four seventy nine ninety eight. So and then there's looks like there's a little peak right here at four seventy three twenty. So it could be a level of focus. But right now you need to see it get over that four sixty two oh seven to even start thinking about that. And I really don't feel like it's going to do that this week. But we'll see. You never know. It's the stock market and on to the QQQ. So last week we were just focused on this three eighty eight level. And I mentioned that it could just be a good back test level. You could day trade off and be able to go long off of. And then basically just follow that all week. You can see we really didn't do much. Here's Monday. And then this is the highest we went was on Wednesday up to three ninety four. And we kind of just chopped after that. If I go down to the 15 minute here, you can see that three eighty eight level was great for day trading. I mean, it kind of pulled into a little 30 cents short right here. Had a nice rip pulled into it on Tuesday. Another nice rip. Gem or area right here as well. Nice little push to the upside. Had a nice gap up on Wednesday. So this three eighty eight back test that we were focused on last week was really good for day trading this week, which is all I was focused on for trading QQQ really being able to buy off the three eighty eights. And also just kind of staying a little bit more bullish above three eighty eight just because it's a really good back test level. And we actually broke under it briefly on Thursday. It looked like we could have gone lower. But then Friday when Jerome Powell came out, he really wasn't that aggressive about loosening financial conditions. He wasn't really saying much about the yields going lower. He didn't really seem like he was too concerned about any of that. Maybe you just didn't want to move the market, but he did. Anyways, people took it optimistically and we had a pretty good day on Friday. I literally all like the zombie companies, all your high growth techs, all types of companies, just even like trash companies, everything kind of ran. I think people are looking for those high beta names because the indexes are kind of lagging, right? I mean, you got QQQ stalling out here. Mag seven already had a great run. Spy kind of had a pretty good week. But obviously it didn't really go beyond maybe like a 1% move. And then you got these high growth names, high beta names going 10, 14, 15% to the upside. And so people are looking for more movement elsewhere because volatility is so low, indexes are slow. And you're kind of starting to see that volatility in the small mid caps. But for QQQ this week, it's the same thing, same story. We really didn't close that much different from there's last Friday's close is at three eighty nine. We closed at three eighty nine ninety four. So it's really unchanged. Three eighty eight is still the focus. This little one day bar does look pretty good for a little push up. Obviously, I couldn't really see higher than that three ninety four fourteen. So if it did decide to push up, that's probably the highest I could see just for right now. But as long as it's staying over this three eighty eight, I kind of have to stay bullish. And you could see there wasn't a single close under the three eighty eight last week, even on Thursday. It closed right here at three eighty eights, even on Friday. And you can see it dipped under both Thursday and Friday. We still remained close on the one day over three eighty eight. So that's the important context behind this. Even though it dipped under it, that doesn't mean anything. You could catch a short term move, short term scout to the downside under three eighty eight. And that's about it, because it looks like it just closed right back over. So the one day close under is extremely important before you start flipping bearish and make sure you wait for that. And this is kind of proof because I didn't get a single close these past couple of weeks under this, not even on this bar. And we dipped under it right here. And you did have one close under right here after the rejection. And then I kind of stalled out. But either way, regardless, if it does the same thing and just closes under and stalls out, you need to wait for that three eighty eight close under before being too bearish, probably even wait for it to get to the gap area. That's all I could see for this week. Just three ninety four fourteen, which is the Wednesday peak from last week. And I'll need to see a break above that to really project any higher. There's obviously a one point two seven two percent Fibonacci level at four hundred thirty nine. So that's an area you could watch after that. And that's about it. So just pay attention to three eighty eight, wait for the close under if you want to be too bearish. Otherwise, it looks like it's trying to push up. You got the nine EMA right here. It's a higher low potentially. And it could just push up to the short term resistance right here. So that's for QQQ. Just be careful. Stable over three eighty eight, wait for the close under before getting bearish. And last but not least going on to the VIX. So last week we were focused on that twelve seventy three, I'm guessing. This has kind of been the focus the last couple of weeks. It's twelve seventy three. So we closed under that and I mentioned I could see it maybe popping back up over that to kind of fake everybody out because he had a little bit of capitulation here. He had volatility closing at fifty two week lows. And then Monday, actually, it went all the way up to thirteen twenty five. So if I go show you here, it did shoot back over the twelve seventy three like I expected it to. So here is last Friday's close. And I mentioned in our video last week that I could see it just shooting back over to kind of fake people out. And in order for them to keep taking the market higher, they kind of do have to bring volatility higher. You need to see it go back up, kind of fill these gaps down. And it makes it easier for them to kind of pump the market up when they have a big gap in the VIX like this and then they can just crush volatility. And that takes the markets higher. So that's kind of why I expected it to shoot back over. I need to see more signals for it to expect really any crazy move in volatility. And obviously we did get like maybe one or two days closing above thirteen. But it really wasn't anything special. There really wasn't any follow through. You can see we have one close over twelve seventy three, which is our triple bottom lows right here on Wednesday and actually ran up to thirteen forty. There was just a little bit of volatility, I guess. I mean, there were small pullbacks in the market. If we go look at the fifteen minute on spy, there was like kind of like there's a pullback here on Tuesday, a big one. VIX actually ran up a little bit on that. And then VIX here on Wednesday, I mean, this thing gapped up and filled the whole gap down. So there was pullbacks in the market and you could make money on puts and volatility did increase a little bit, but it wasn't anything significant as well as we didn't get that close under forty three sixty seven. So it's kind of the same thing this week. Like we closed at twelve forties last week. We closed at twelve sixty two this week. I kind of feel like it will need to get under the twelve forties completely for the market to kind of boom higher than this impulse candle. It already has from Friday. So we need to see the break and close under that. And then obviously we'll need to start closing back over twelve seventy three again probably for a few days at least at least one good close over it. And that could send volatility higher up to the fourteen tens. But you are at a stall point here, guys. Volatility is kind of at a stagnant level. I mean, it's that fifty two week lows. You got people loading up insurance at the cheapest levels in a really long time. So that could be why it's kind of stalling out here. And you haven't just seen a straight flush down to the two thousand nineteen of twenty twenty lows, which is that eleven forty two. So you have had a week of stall out here after basically a whole month of volatility crush. So just keep watching that twelve seventy three, guys. Make sure you wait for volatility to start closing back over that before getting too bearish in the market. Obviously at a fake out here, Wednesday closed back over. You had one good push up to the thirteen and then it was just another fixed crush. So you do want to see good evidence before making any crazy decisions, maybe one, two, three, four good closes over twelve seventy three can give you a good signal that volatility has had it back up. As well as pay attention to the moving averages. You haven't had a single close over the nine EMA on the one day, probably since this October twenty seventh on the Friday. So it's still just trending under, you see this big wick here. This is actually a fake wick. Did not signal really any real volatility on Tuesday. So I think it was a glitch or something. So don't pay too too much attention to that. Just know that price is still trending under the nine. It's still closing under the nine. So it probably needs to see that close back over the nine, which is your first moving average right here in order to start going higher. Otherwise, it's going to keep following the trend, guys. It's just like a stock. I mean, the VIX falls moving averages pretty good. Even though you're not buying VIX shares or anything like that, it does kind of move opposite to the market. And as well, it's just probably computers, programs to, you know, trade really VIX options or SPX puts SPX calls based off the VIX because connected. SPX options are connected to the VIX. So it's going to follow moving averages. It's going to follow support kind of as well. And there's evidence of that. Really any volatility extreme point, just pay attention to. And the closest one right now where we are to is twelve seventy three. So we need to see getting back over that. If you want to see volatility higher as well as keep seeing this trending under the nine EMA in order to go lower down to the next low. But this eleven forty two is the lowest I can see it. If it does want to keep going lower, who knows how long that will take because it's already so low. So that's the video, guys. Hope you guys enjoyed. Make sure you like, comment and subscribe to our extra YouTube channel. I'm going to get this chopped up, sent out. I love you guys and I'm out.